exp.curve 2012. planed tasks prediction of behavior for each task! we should determine the time...

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Exp.Curve Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ τ RC 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0 0 1 t 2 t 3 t 4 t 5 t 99% 98% 95% 86% 63% 37% 14% 5% 2% 1% N um beroftim e constants Percent offinal value Rising exponential Falling exponential

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Page 1: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.Curve2012.

Planed tasks

Prediction of behavior for each task!

We should determine the time

constant τ

τ RC

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

00 1t 2t 3t 4t 5t

99%98%

95%

86%

63%

37%

14%

5% 2% 1%

Number of time constants

Per

cent

of f

inal

val

ue

Rising exponential

Falling exponential

Page 2: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

Math and portals• We assume exp. Curve scenario

Page 3: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.Curve2012.

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

00 1t 2t 3t 4t 5t

99%98%

95%

86%

63%

37%

14%

5% 2% 1%

Number of time constants

Per

cent

of f

inal

val

ue

STOP WORK HERE

37% OF WORK LEFT (TO BE DONE)

Page 4: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

When to stop work!• We stop work when curve starts to go

in saturation!

Page 5: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

Large number of portal with different Locations ...

...end up with different results

Page 6: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

Portals behave similar ...

... We select best portals !!!

Page 7: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

There are differences • Depends if portal is already live?• If work will be continued after planed period • etc....

Page 8: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

The Normal Probability Distribution

• Graph of the Normal Probability Density Function

xx

f f ((x x ))

Page 9: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.CurveWhat we will have?

Page 10: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

10% of portals will be extraordinary!!!

Page 11: Exp.Curve 2012. Planed tasks Prediction of behavior for each task! We should determine the time constant τ Rising exponential Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.CurveNormal Curve

68%

95%

99.7%

Approximate percentage of area within given standard deviations (empirical rule).

Recession is unavoidable but can be outsmarted if planed proactively

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W06 naprezenia glowne[tryb zgodno [ci]wbia.pollub.pl/files/86/content/files/1439_naprezenia_glowne.pdf · Tensor naprężeń Naprężenia w stanie przestrzennym: τ σ τ σ τ τ

Swedish sawn and planed wood product

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