exit polling in mississippi republican senate primary norman analytics and research june 30, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Key Findings McDaniel did well in suburban Memphis and but fell behind on the Gulf
Coast.
Voters under 35, those without a college degree and those making $25,000-$99,999 were more likely to vote for McDaniel.
In the regions tested, 20% of June 24th voters did not participate in the June 3rd primary. McDaniel won 56% of these voters – on par with his overall vote total in the regions surveyed.
In total, roughly one-quarter of voters recall hearing a radio ad with a message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare. Voters said the radio ad had as much impact as other ads seen and heard during the campaign. Despite what they say about impact, voters who heard the message about
the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare (through any channel) were significantly more likely to vote for McDaniel.
Among those who heard the NON PAC Ad and said it had an impact, 75% voted for McDaniel.
The idea that Congress exempted itself from the unpopular Obamacare law is believable to voters and does make an impact on the willingness to vote for an incumbent.
Election Results
Total Suburban Memphis
Gulf Coast0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
57% 68%46%
43% 32%54%
Chris McDaniel Thad Cochran
Results are weighted to match the final tally in each county. McDaniel did well in suburban Memphis and but fell behind on the Gulf Coast.
Election Results
Total White Black 18-34 35-54 55+0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
57% 58%
31%
65% 59% 55%
43% 42%
69%
35% 41% 45%
Chris McDaniel Thad Cochran
Younger voters strongly favored McDaniel.
Election Results
Total Men Women HS or Less
Some College
College Degree
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
57% 59% 55% 65% 66%48%
43% 41% 45% 35% 34%52%
Chris McDaniel Thad Cochran
Voters with less than a college degree were more likely to favor McDaniel.
Election Results
Total Support TP
Oppose TP
Under $25K
$25-$50K
$50-$100K
$100K+0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
57%83%
15%
50%65% 62%
47%
43%17%
85%
50%35% 38%
53%
Chris McDaniel Thad Cochran
McDaniel had strong support from his Tea Party base as well as middle and upper-middle class voters. The wealthiest voters were more likely to favor Cochran.
Voting in June 3 Election
34%
44%
2%
20%
Thad Cochran Chris McDaniel Other Did Not Vote
One-in-five voters in Suburban Memphis and the Gulf Coast did not participate in the original primary.
Total June 3 - Cochran June 3 - McDaniel June 3 - Other June 3 - Did not vote
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
57%
8%
96%
73%56%
43%
92%
4%
27%44%
McDaniel Cochran
Election ResultsThere was limited voter switchover between primaries. Voters who did not participate in the June 3rd primary voted similarly to the total number of voters in the regions.
Election Results – Changes from June 3 to June 24
42%
3%11%
2%
31%
2%9%
1%
McDaniel to McDaniel Cochran to McDaniel Did not vote to McDaniel Other to McDaniel
Cochran to Cochran McDaniel to Cochran Did not vote to Cochran Other to Cochran
Most voters cast the same ballot they did on June 3.
Profile of June 3 Non-Voters
Among those who Did Not Vote 6/3, Voted McDaniel 6/24
Among those who Did Not Vote 6/3, Voted Cochran 6/24
Male 48% 44%
Female 52% 56%
18-34 15% 11%
35-54 45% 50%
55+ 40% 40%
White 91% 86%
Black 6% 11%
HS of Less 25% 7%
Some College 40% 26%
College Grad 35% 66%
Under $25K 13% 7%
$25-$50K 26% 22%
$50-$100K 36% 34%
$100K+ 25% 36%
Support Tea Party 62% 15%
Oppose Tea Party 11% 51%
Heard NON PAC Ad 16% 20%
McDaniel won new voters who support the Tea Party and those without college degrees while Cochran courted higher income, higher educated voters as well as those who oppose the Tea Party.
Profile of June 3 Non-Voters
June 3 Non-Voters
Support Tea Party 41% Cochran 16%/McDaniel 84%
Neutral to Tea Party 31% Cochran 50%/McDaniel 50%
Oppose Tea Party 28% Cochran 80%/McDaniel 20%
June 3 Non-Voters
Support Tea Party 41% 25% heard NON PAC Ad
Neutral to Tea Party 31% 17% heard NON PAC Ad
Oppose Tea Party 28% 10% heard NON PAC Ad
In the regions surveyed, June 3rd non-voters were more likely to be supportive of the Tea Party and McDaniel won this group easily. New voters who supported the Tea Party were more likely to have heard the NON PAC Ad showing the ad was well targeted to McDaniel’s base.
Radio Advertising
Total Suburban Memphis
Gulf Coast
Heard Now or Never PAC Radio Advertising
27% 22% 32%
Heard NON PAC Radio
Ad
Saw TV Ad Received Mail
A Great Deal of Impact 13% 14% 14%
Some Impact 22% 23% 24%
Just a Little Impact 16% 15% 15%
No Impact 48% 47% 45%
In total, roughly one-quarter of voters recall hearing a radio ad with a message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare. Voters said the radio ad had as much impact as other advertising mediums.
Profile of Voters – Radio AdProfile of Voters Who Heard NON PAC Radio Ad
Profile of Voters Who Heard NON
PAC Radio Ad and Said
Advertising Had Impact
Male 55% 49%
Female 45% 51%
18-34 11% 15%
35-54 38% 34%
55+ 52% 51%
White 96% 96%
Black 2% 3%
HS of Less 9% 11%
Some College 28% 32%
College Grad 63% 57%
Under $25K 5% 6%
$25-$50K 11% 12%
$50-$100K 43% 39%
$100K+ 41% 44%
Support Tea Party
59% 71%
Oppose Tea Party
17% 11%
Significantly higher than the total sample Significantly lower than the total sample
Profile of Voters Who
Heard NON PAC Radio Ad
Profile of Voters Who
Heard NON PAC Radio Ad and
Said Advertising Had Impact
Voted Cochran 37% 25%
Voted McDaniel
63% 75%
Voted Cochran 6/3
33% 24%
Voted McDaniel 6/3
52% 64%
Voted Other 6/3
2% 1%
Did Not Vote 6/3
13% 11%
While 57% of voters in the tested regions voted for McDaniel, 63% of those who heard the NON PAC Ad voted for him and 75% of those who heard the ad and said it had impact supported McDaniel.
Of those who heard the NON PAC Ad, 59% support the Tea Party compared to 47% among all voters. This indicates the ad was well targeted to turn out a segment of voters likely to support McDaniel.
Obamacare Exemption Impact
Significantly higher than the total sample Significantly lower than the total sample
Total Heard Obamacare Exemption
Message (any medium)
Advertising had impact 36% 37%
Likely Congress is hiding Obamacare Exemption
74% 77%
Less likely to vote for incumbent if Obamacare Exemption is true
69% 75%
Believe Congress and staff should pay for own insurance
51% 49%
Voted McDaniel 57% 63%
Voters who heard the message about Cochran and the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare were significantly more likely to vote for McDaniel.
Obamacare Exemption
Total Believe Congressional
Exemption
Do Not Believe Congressional
Exemption
Less likely to vote for Incumbent 72% 77% 56%
Makes no difference 16% 11% 30%
More likely to vote for incumbent 4% 4% 4%
Note sure 8% 8% 11%
Total Voted McDaniel
Voted Cochran
Believe Congressional Exemption 74% 82% 62%
Do Not Believe Congressional Exemption
26% 18% 38%
The idea that Congress exempted itself from the unpopular Obamacare law is believable to voters and does make an impact on the willingness to vote for an incumbent.
Obamacare Exemption
Total Heard Radio Ad Did Not Hear Radio Ad
Voted Cochran Voted McDaniel0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
51% 46%53%
44%56%
49% 54%47%
56%44%
Congress and their staff get enough benefits - they can pay for their own health insuranceCongress and their staff should be able to get health insurance through their employer like other workers
Voters are split on whether or not Congress and their staff should get employer based healthcare. However, other survey data show this changes if Congress appears to have a separate set of rules.
Methodology In-person interviewers were positioned at 18 polling places in Mississippi on
June 24, 2014 for the Republican Senate Nomination Runoff Election.
In total 1,127 interviews were conducted.
9 in Suburban Memphis (576 interviews)
9 on the Southern Gulf Coast (551 interviews)
Polling places were selected through a random stratified sample based on turnout in the June 3rd Republican Primary. Polling places where fewer than 100 people voted on June 3rd were excluded for operational/feasibility issues.
Interviewers approached every third person that left the precinct and invited them to participate in a survey. This was done to ensure a random sample.
If voters agreed to participate, they were handed a double sided survey which was self-administered and returned to a box. The interviewer did not review the completed surveys to ensure anonymity.
Final survey data were weighted to match the actual election outcome in each county. Figures in this report reflect weighted data. When data from the state becomes available, this can be updated to match precinct level actual returns.
Locations – Suburban MemphisPrecinct/County June 3 Ballots
CastJune 24
Ballot Cast*Exit
Interviews Collected**
Hernando East/DeSoto 1,232 84Olive Branch South/DeSoto 589 114***
Southaven North/DeSoto 509 85
Senatobia 1/Tate 500 75
Nesbit West/DeSoto 291 80***
Byhalia/Marshall 251 60***
Looxahoma/Tate 160 23
Potts Camp/Marshall 143 42
Floyd/Benton 112 13
*To be updated when Secretary of State certifies final results**Interviewers approached every 3rd person leaving the polling place as a method of randomization***Locations where polling place officials and watchers prevented interviews for part of the day
Locations – Southern Gulf CoastPrecinct/County June 3 Ballots
CastJune 24
Ballot Cast*Exit
Interviews Collected**
OS Civic/Jackson 2,219 203Diamondhead East/Hancock 1,541 18***
Biloxi 11/Harrison 1,082 174
Fontainebleau/Jackson 891 51
Eastlawn/Jackson 494 32
Waveland West/Hancock 363 12
White Plains/Harrison 250 57Outside Long Beach/Harrison 171 2***
City Hall/Hancock 102 2***
*To be updated when Secretary of State certifies final results**Interviewers approached every 3rd person leaving the polling place as a method of randomization***Locations where polling place officials and watchers prevented interviews for most of the day
Demographics of VotersTotal June 3 Voters
Male 49% 50%
Female 51% 50%
18-34 10% 9%
35-54 36% 33%
55+ 54% 58%
White 93% 94%
Black 5% 4%
HS of Less 18% 18%
Some College 33% 33%
College Grad 49% 49%
Under $25K 10% 10%
$25-$50K 18% 16%
$50-$100K 42% 43%
$100K+ 30% 31%
Support Tea Party 47% 48%
Oppose Tea Party 24% 23%