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Future trends in oil and gas exploration
Mike Daly
Executive Vice President, Exploration
BP plc
Oil Technology Centenary 2013
Imperial College London
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Global trends influencing exploration
Future resource trends
• Deepwater: the drill out of passive margins and deltas
• Arctic: ice-bound offshore
• Re-exploration of onshore basins and shallow waters
Unexplored Rock Volume
Tight oil giants, Shale plays & EOR
Future technology trends
• Striving for the perfect seismic image
• Ice management, arctic spill response and reduction of environmental impact
• Transformation of Kh and m & characterisation of unconventional pay
• Digitisation of everything
Future geopolitical trends
• Mexico, Venezuela, Iran, KSA…
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0
1
2
3
4
5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Tn
bo
e
Onshore North America Middle East (On/Offshore) Onshore Latin America
Onshore C.I.S. Onshore Africa Onshore RoW
Shelf (ex Middle East) Arctic Deepwater
Canadian Oil Sand Venezuela: Orinoco Belt
Global discovered resource and yet-to-find
Conventional YTF:
~ 1 tnboe
1948: Ghawar
176 bnboe
1936-40: Supergiants in
Venezuela, Iran, Kuwait
1927: Kirkuk
26 bnboe
1992: Qatar Arch
103 bnboe
2004: Yoloten
67 bnboe
Source: IHS, EIA and CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers) for onshore North America data
1979: Troll
10 bnboe
1971: North Field
193 bnboe
Conventional Discovered: 4.5 tnboe
Deepwater Arctic
sub-ice
Onshore Shelf
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Exploration delivery – past and future
Yet-to-find resources
Source: BP Yet-To-Find data
Deepwater (400m+) discoveries creaming curve
0
50
100
150
200
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
bn
bo
e
2000’s
1990’s
1980’s
Brazil, GoM
Angola
GoM, Caspian
NW Shelf
Brazil pre-salt
GoM Pg
Brazil, E. Africa,Levant
Deepwater - cumulative discovered resource • The growth and decline of deepwater
• The emergence of the sub-ice arctic
• Sustained delivery from onshore & shelf
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Material new plays of the past decade –
all deepwater
GoM
Palaeogene
S Atlantic
pre-salt
Angola
Congo Fan
East Mediterranean
pre-Messinian
5
5.5
11
38
Deepwater
discovered volumes
(bnboe)
7
13
East India
gas
East Africa gas
Source: IHS EDIN / BP
• Deeper stratigraphy in existing provinces
• Delta’s medial and distal fans
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Arctic yet-to-find
S Kara
YTF volume (bnboe) 10
N Kara
5
R Barents
Laptev 10
E Siberia
R Chukchi
0.1
NE Greenland
17
Baffin
Source: USGS 2008
7
C Beaufort
2
Arctic Islands
7
7
Lofoten
N Barents
1
Alaska:
Beaufort
N Slope
Chukchi
62
72
127
31
8
E95
E38
R
R
N S
Line 5404 Pokak 3D VTI CI 2 km
E95 Amplitude
C.I. 50m
- - - -
3 km
50 km
Arctic frontiers:
untested basins with great DHI’s
2 km 2 km
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Ice management key issue
Lomonosov Ridge, 2004: seabed coring, drifting pack ice
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And society’s opinion?
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Onshore
frontier
basins
80bnboe
Saharan
Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
*Statistics calculated from IHS onshore rifted basin areas.
Kalahari
Etosha
Congo
Taoudeni
Hasi
Messaoud
Ghadames
Murzuq
Strongly asymmetric
resource distribution -
North and South
Remaining
Produced
Source: Basin Resources (IHS, 2013); Depth to basement (E.D. Purdy – Exploration Fabric of Africa)
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The Congo: 1.2m km2
of unexplored basin
H7
H6 H5
H4
H3
H2 Infra-Cambrian
Carbonate/Evaporite
Jurassic Stanleyville
Ordovician Alolo shale
Samba (TD 2039m) Depth
(Approx.) TWT
2 km
4 km
6 km
8 km
Depth (Approx.)
TWT
2 km
4 km
6 km
8 km
Carbonate H2
H4
H6
H7
H3
H5
H6 Base Jurassic Unconformity
H5 Hercynian Unconformity (Late Paleozoic)
H4 Pan-African Unconformity (Early-Mid Paleozoic)
H3 Early Pan-African Unconformity (Late Precambrian-Early Cambrian)
13 Modified from: Palaeogeography (Chris Scotese PaleoAtlas, 2009)
540Ma
Reconstruction
Congo Oman
Congo and Oman
Infra-Cambrian
seaways
Oman time equivalent
Ara Gp. petroleum
system
‘U’ shale and
Athel
silicilyte
source
rocks have
delivered
~20bnboe
Congo
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Unexplored rock volume in mature basins
East Texas: >100,000 wells total
Industry 3D seismic data
East Texas: wells below 14,000’
10,000’
20,000’
30,000’
10,000’
20,000’
30,000’
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The Bakken: dramatic reserves growth
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Exploring for ‘reserves growth’…
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Desmoinesian
IHS well completion zones in red
Cleveland
Source: Reservoir Visualization
Inc. Copyright 2013
By exploiting missed pay – a lot of it!
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Source rock (shale) plays
The distribution of shale is known…
…understanding quality is key.
Instead, success will be predicated upon:
− best shale (e.g. Eagleford)
− cheapest operating model
− scientific understanding / technology
− deploying the above internationally
Source: Reuters
Eagleford: drilling, logging and evaluating the type outcrop
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Exploration convergence with EOR
• 1200 bnboe remaining HCIP in Middle
East carbonates
• 300 bnboe HCIP in rest of world
carbonates
• Each 1% EOR increase = 15
bnboe
• Sweet spot identification
key criteria
• 1380 bnboe HCIP globally
in clastics/shales
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Future trends in oil & gas exploration
Resource trends
• Deepwater: T and K deltas; plays explored up from the source rock
• Arctic: ice-bound offshore, Russia is leading
• Re-exploration of the onshore (and shallow water) basins
Needs a new image, or a new idea, or new technology
Onshore frontier basins
Unexplored Rock Volume in established basins
Tight oil in old giants
Shale sweet spots
Convergence with EOR