exclusive growth a socio-economic research paper

7/28/2019 Exclusive Growth A Socio-Economic Research Paper

1/23

2013

Exclusive GrowthA Socio-Economic Research Paper

Presented to

Ms. Kathy Ramolete

Presented by

Andrea S. CanivelIV- 13 St. Theofrid


2/23

Introduction

nyone whos been paying attention to recent news can agree on one thing: the

Philippines has been experiencing in the recent years, and will experience in the

years to come a continued boom in economic growth. When asked about the

Philippine economic status, most of my fellow students are primed and ready with the answer of

it being on the rise.

AJust two months ago, the countrys stock markets managed to record new historic highs

breaching the 7,000 mark and beyond1

and the World Bank and the United Nations Economic

and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) forecast a solid 6.2 percent GDP growth

for 2013, complementing a stunning performance in the preceding year2. All signs point to the

positive and continual growth of the economy and yet two indicators of economic improvement

say otherwise. The latest report by the National Statistics Coordination Board (NSC), however,

suggests that despite impressive rates of economic growth in recent years poverty rates

have remained virtually unchanged since 2006. In the first half of 2012, the national poverty rate

stood at 27.9%, compared to 28.8% in 2006 and 28.6% in 2009. No wonder, according to the

NSCB, poverty remained unchanged as the computed differences are not statistically

significant. In addition, the report suggests, some provinces in the conflict-prone southern

island of Mindanao have experienced an increase in poverty rates. Not to mention, the (extreme)

"poverty threshold" used by the government agency was merely $0.62 per day, while that of the

World Bank is $1.25 per day3 and according to the recent March 19-22 surveys of the Philippine

Social Weather Station (SWS), as much as 1 million people have joined the ranks of unemployed

in early 2013.4

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So, long story short, the economy is undergoing breath taking improvement but unemployment

and poverty rates continue to increase or in the case of poverty, remain unchanged. This is

exclusive growth. The stocks and GDP may be on the rise but unemployment and poverty

continue to grow but it isnt going into or becoming jobs for the public or improving the lives of

the masses. The Philippine economic growth is not inclusive of the other important sectors of the

country and is not gearing towards a sustainable and life-improving economy.

I. Statement of the Problem

sick man cannot be said to be healing if his old wounds still continue to go

septic. It makes perfect sense that if the whole of a thing is improving, its

problematic parts should be declining, not increasing. If a countrys economy

is growing, its unemployment and poverty rates should be declining. However, with the

countrys recent economic growth, this is not the case. The summarised reports mentioned in

the introductory paragraph above say this clearly. GDP and stock market growth are

indicators of economic growth but increasing poverty and unemployment rates are not. It just

doesnt seem to add up, doesnt it?

A

Yes, the Philippines is booming, and the countrys macroeconomic profile is at its best in

recent memory, but the current growth trajectory is neither significantly poverty-alleviating

nor job-generating. Obviously this means that much of the recent economic expansion has

been confined to few sectors: namely retail, real estate, gambling, and Business Process

Outsourcing (BPO), none of which tend to provide quality, permanent jobs for the majority

of the working force.5

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The problem is exclusive growth and its solution does lie in economic growth but not just

upward, it lies in all around, inclusive growth. Recent economic growth being confined to the

GDP, stock market and service sectors is the definition of exclusive growth. What is known

historically as the age-old economic backbone of all now developed or long ago developed

countries continues to be neglected and this may be the biggest part of the problem or the

easiest solution.

Historically all great civilizations sprung up near rivers for the reason of and to develop and

agrarian economy. You start out with the agricultural sector dominating and fuelling

employment and production then, as technological advancement and industrialization grows,

the economy slowly becomes dominated by the service industry. Agriculture provides a

market for the products through an increase in population which fuels again agriculture but

this time creating a surplus in goods and need for industrialization. The economy evolves

into a service dominated and urbanized one reducing unemployment and poverty. What

happened, however, with the Philippine economy, is what some theorize as leapfrogging

the industrialization process.

We skipped over the industrialization process. We went from agriculture dominance

straight to service. This pre-mature service sector expansion may have sped up urbanization

but has robbed us of the industrial technological investments that our neighbouring countries

made and are now benefitting from. Our country being an archipelago, wide-spread national

industrialization would be difficult but is far from impossible. Our neighbouring countries

have achieved this and now they reap the benefits. This economic evolution is a story that

had been played out in most of todays developed economies. Industrialization was a critical

stage that catapulted them to high-income levels. Our four closest ASEAN neighbours

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Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnamhave all seen their industry sectors shares of

total gross domestic product (GDP) breach 40 percent within the last two decades. Industrys

GDP share in Indonesia went as high as nearly half (48.1 percent), while the same peaked at

47.4, 41.5, and 40.1 percent for Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand respectively. All four

continue to have an industry GDP share exceeding 40 percent. In the Philippines, the highest

we reached was only 34.6 percent, and it was down to 30.3 percent as of 2012. This share

hardly changed through the last two decades, and stayed mostly within the 31-33 percent

range. Meanwhile, our neighbours saw their industry sectors become the largest sector in the

economy at some point. Here, however, the services sector had consistently been the largest,

and its GDP share rose from 45 to 57 percent from the early 1990s through the present. The

growing dominance of services came out of the share of agriculture, whose share dropped

from 22 to under 12 percent within the same period.6

The provinces, the rural areas in our country are the prime human and agricultural resource

that we have failed to properly cultivate and utilize. The lack of industrialization and

technological advancement in the countryside is what is creating this exclusive growth. It

keeps development on the side of the service industry. What thrived instead were services

industries like real estate, banking and insurance, transport, telecommunications and mass

mediaall industries where the benefits of growth historically tend to be narrowly

distributed. Our much higher level of poverty and inequality relative to our neighbours must

at least partly be attributable to this unusual structural growth pattern wherein we failed to

industrialize as much as our neighbours did in recent decades.7

This exclusive, job-losing growth is improving things for the big guys but is making things even

harder for the lower and middle class. Narrow growth is seen in how it is propelled by very few

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high-growth industries such as business process outsourcing: especially call centres; real

property development; banking and insurance; and mass media. It is also seen in how more than

half of our GDP is generated in and around Metro Manila alone. Most of us see it in the way

benefits of our growth have been captured by relatively a few, while the vast majority is in a

seemingly endless wait for the trickle downif it will come at all.8

Another effect of leapfrogging the industrialization process is the generation, support and

prospering of only large scale, service companies such as business process outsourcing:

especially call centres; real property development; banking and insurance; and mass media.9

This creates a smaller job market and increases poverty.

The reasons above are more than sufficient grounds as to why we should as a country, for the

betterment not only of the market and economy but also for the improvement of Filipino lives,

take immediate action to solve the problem of exclusive growth.

II. Hypotheses / Assumptions

Hypotheses number 1:

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Exclusive growth is caused by leapfrogging. We skipped over the vital industrialization

process of our countrys economic evolution and left the would be economic base of our

countryside and provinces under-developed which gave way to growth only in the

business process outsourcing service industry, which is concentrated and developed only

in urban centres leaving a vast majority of Filipinos jobless and impoverished.

The solution would be the industrialization and further development of the agricultural

and industrial sectors which would generate jobs and alleviate poverty.

Hypothesis number 2:

Exclusive growth is caused by a lack of small and medium enterprises which is an effect

of leapfrogging. The Philippine service oriented and concentrated economy led to the

establishment, development and prospering of only large scale, business tycoon owned

service industries that continue to dominate the market.

The solution would be the creation and support of more small and medium scale

enterprises. This would create job growth and alleviate poverty but would not be possible

without government support through laws and policies aimed at eliminating destructive

exclusive growth and fostering nation-building inclusive growth instead.

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EXCLUSIVE

GROWTHCAUSESCAUSES EFFECTS


8/23

III. Data Gathered

1PSEi hits fresh peak; breaches 7,200-mark

By Kathleen A. Martin, ABS-CBNnews.com

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INCLUSIV

E

GROWTH

lack of small

and medium

enterprises

leapfrogging

SOLUTION /

HYPOTHES

ES

1

Industrialization inthe countryside

2

Creation and supportof small and medium

unemployment

poverty


9/23

Posted at 05/03/2013 4:10 PM | Updated as of 05/03/2013 7:27 PM

MANILA, Philippines - Shares breached the 7,200-mark on Friday after the Philippines got its second investment-

grade status the previous day.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index rose 1.72% or 121.93 points to 7,215.35, while the broader all-shares indexwent up 1.48% or 65.41 points to 4,490.

This is the 28th record high for the PSEi this year.

The index reached as high as 7,230.40 during the day, or 136.98 points above Thursday's finish. Shares rallied after

Standard & Poor's upgraded its junk rating on the Philippines to BBB-, the second investment-grade status for the

country.

Total volume traded on Friday reached 3.53 billion shares worth P15.83 billion.

Advancers led decliners 120 to 71, while the shares of 30 firms remained unchanged.

All sub-indices were in the green, led by the holding firms which gained 2.42% or 154.32 points to 6,543.36.

Most active stocks were Alliance Global Group Inc. whose shares went up 3.94% to P25.05 apiece, and Philippine

Long Distance Telephone Co. whose shares climbed 0.32% to P3, 090.

Shares of Ayala Land Inc. (+2.36%), SM Investments Corp. (+2%), Universal Robina Corp. (+1.46%) and Trans-Asia

Oil and Energy Development Corp. (-10.65%) were also among the most traded on Friday.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/05/03/13/psei-hits-fresh-peak-breaches-7200-mark

2, 3Poverty level remains unchangedsince 2006 government surveySIEGFRID O. ALEGADO, MARC JAYSON CAYABYAB and DANESSA O. RIVERA, GMA News

April 23, 2013 10:41amEconomic indicators may show the country is getting richer, but the poor remain poor.

The ratio of poor Filipinos to the overall population levelled off at 27.9 percent during the first half of2012 from 28.6 percent in the same period in 2009, National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)Secretary General Jose Ramon Albert said in a press briefing Tuesday.

However, compared to the 2006 ratio of 28.8 percent, the NSCB noted there was no statisticaldifference.

Comparing this with the 2006 and 2009 first semester figures estimated at 28.8 percent and 28.6percent, respectively, poverty remained unchanged as the computed differences are not statistically

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10/23

significant, NSCB noted in a statement.

Based on the "The Family Income and Expenditures Survey", the Philippines tracks the poverty rateonce every three years.

Filipino families in extreme poverty whose incomes arent enough to meet basic food needs stands

at 10 percent in the 1st half of 2012, NSCB said.

On average, 28 in every 100 Filipinos were poor in the last six years.

Floating above poverty

What has changed is that a family of five needs more to leave the ranks of the poor. To meet basic

food needs, a family of five needs P5, 458 every month. To stay above the poverty thresholdor

meeting basic food and non-food needsthe family needs to collectively earn P7, 821.

In 2006, a family of five needed only P1, 681 in 2006 and P2, 042 in 2009 to move out of poverty.

The NSCB pointed out that during the first semester of 2012, a Filipino family of five needed P5,

458 to meet basic food needs every month and P7, 821 to stay above the poverty threshold every

month.

These respective amounts represent the food and poverty thresholds, which increased by 11.1

percent from the first semester of 2009 to the first half of 2012, compared to the 26.0 percent-

increase between the 1st semesters of 2006 and 2009.

By region, the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao has the highest poverty incidence in the first

half of 2012 at 52.9 percent. Region XII and Region VIII followed with poverty incidences of 45.8

percent and 45.5 percent, respectively.

The National Capital Region registered the lowest poverty incidence at 5.4 percent, followed by

Region IV-A (14.3 percent) and Region III (15.6 percent).

Unwanted statistics

The poverty statistics were not the dramatic results that we wanted, said Socioeconomic Planning

Secretary Arsenio Balisacan.

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The rural sector lags behind because of the lack of focus and private sector involvement in

agriculture, he said.

But National Anti-Poverty Commission chair Joel Rocamora said that by the end of President

Benigno Aquino III's term government programs will already have statistical impact. The

government targets poverty incidence to drop by 16 percent in 2016.

Balisacan said the poverty figures will be lessened should the private sector funnel investments

needed in the countryside and support government inroads towards developing the agro-industrial

and fisheries sector.

Moreover, Balisacan said poverty incidence will gradually go down should effects of privateinvestments kick-in.

The real challenge here is to get the private sector to respond to the governments initiatives, he

said, noting that private sector investments were negative until the second half of 2012 which is

still not reflected in the recent poverty statistics.

Balisacan noted the need to develop the manufacturing sector, power and transport infrastructure in

order for the country to move up the value chain.

The latest survey confirms that economic growth is still not felt by majority of Filipinos, Sonny Africa,

executive director of research group IBON Foundation, told GMA News Online.

"Growth remains exclusionary which means hindi nag-be-benefit ang largest number of Filipinos,"

said Africa.

The poverty incidence in this country and the Labour Department's announcement that there will be

no wage increase on May 1 also belie reports of stock market record-highs and a credit rating ofinvestment grade, he said.

"It's very striking na amidst these economic good news 'yung pinaka-bottomline for the Filipino

majority of increasing income, hindi nagma-materialize," Africa added.

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Private pollsters

To track the effectiveness of government development and anti-poverty programs, the government

survey will be released every six months starting this year, said Balisacan. Thus, data for the second

half of 2012 will be released in the third quarter of 2013 instead of 2015.

As official poverty numbers in the past were done every three years, stakeholders like the media and

research outfits had no choice but to source statistics from private pollsterssuch as the Social

Weather Stations (SWS), which conduct self-rated poverty surveys based on the experience of

respondents.

In its latest survey released last January, the SWS noted 54 percent or 10.9 million families consider

themselves as mahirap or poor, with perception of poverty rising nationwide except in the Visayas.

Unlike government statistics which measure the income and expenses of Filipino families, most

private pollsters simply ask families how they see themselves: Not poor, on the poverty line, or poor?

TJD/VS, GMA News

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/305102/economy/business/poverty-level-remains-unchanged-since-2006-

government-survey

4A million more Pinoys jobless asunemployment up to 25.4 percent

SWSMay 2, 2013 5:10am

(Updated 7:19 p.m.)Unemployment continued to be the fly in the ointment that is the recentupswing in the Philippine economy, based on a new survey by pollster Social Weather Stations.

According to the SWS's March 19-22 surveyunemployment among Filipinos aged 18 and up rose to25.4 percentequivalent to 11.1 million jobless Filipinos. This was a million more than the estimated10.1 million jobless Filipinos in December, when unemployment among Filipinos was at 24.6percent.

By comparison, the official unemployment rate was 7.1 percent as of January, equivalent to 2.89million Filipinos. This was an increase from the 6.8 percent in October 2012.

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Think-tank Ibon Foundation pointed out that the latest SWS survey reflects the problem ingovernment's economic policies, which is biased towards foreign investors' wants than Filipinos'needs, particularly the creation of more stable jobs.

"The government relies heavily on foreign investors to make investments in the services sector,when they are here on terms profitable for them like cheap labour and importing of cheaper

materials for assembly here," Ibon executive director and economist Sonny Africa told GMA NewsOnline on Thursday.

"If the government orientation regarding foreign investors will not change, only foreigners will benefit"from the robust economic growth the country is currently experiencing, he added.

Still, the SWS poll found more Filipinos upbeat on job availability for the next 12 months, with netoptimism up three points to a "fair" of +13.

SWS noted that unemployment had been high since May 2005, going below 20 percent only thrice.The last time it did so was in September 2010, at 18.9 percent.

The survey used the traditional definition of unemployed as those who are not working and are

looking for work. The employed were those with work at present, including unpaid family workers,with no past reference period.

'Structural economic problem'

Unemployment is only part and parcel of a larger structural economic problem, PhilippineEconomics Society president Alvin Ang told GMA News Online in a separate interview.

The problem is investments are not funnelled into sectors that would benefit majority of Fiipinos, likein agriculture and manufacturing, noted Ang, who is also an economics professor at University ofSanto Tomas. The problem has long been in front of us all along, the economist said.

Ang said solving the country's unemployment problem also requires generating more quality jobsmore than ensuring that investments are put into productive sectors.

Beyond that there are people who have jobs but are unsustainablethey are either contractual orare working in informal sectors, he said.

With the lack of quality jobs, those who are underemployed or have unsustainable work will join theunemployed soon enough.

Quality jobs refer to employment that provide decent wages, job security, advancementopportunities, and healthy working environment where workers are treated fairly and have a voice intheir daily activities at work and about the overall working conditions, according to the AmericanCentre for Law and Social Policy.

The SWS survey's respondents were those at least 18 years old.

By comparison, the official definition of employed included those who, during the week before theinterview date, were at least 15 years old and were either at work or with a job but not at work.

Since 2005, the official definition of unemployed required that the individual not be working, belooking for work, and be available for work.

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But SWS said that if it had used the official definitions, the jobless rate among adults 18 years oldand above would be 15.4 percent, or about six million Filipinos.

"This means 9.9 percent are looking for a job but are not available at present or in the next twoweeks," it said.

Joblessness breakdown

Dominating the ranks of the jobless were those who quit at 12 percent, while those who wereretrenched was at 8 percent. The remaining five percent who were jobless were first-time

jobseekers.

Of the 8 percent retrenched, those whose contracts were not renewed fell to 6 percent from 7percent, those whose firms closed decreased to 1 percent from 2 percent, and those laid offremained at 1 percent.

The survey found the proportion of those who quit was up from 11 percent and the share of first-timejobseekers rose from 3 percent.

The survey showed joblessness increased everywhere, except among women and those in the 25-34-years-old bracket.

Among men, joblessness went up two points to 17.3 percent but hardly changed at 35.4 percentfrom 35.7 percent for women.

It fell by a point among "intermediate youth" aged 25 to 34 to 31.8 percent, and hardly changed at15.8 percent from 15.5 percent among those aged 45 and up.

But it rose three points to 23 percent among the middle-aged (35-44) and by two points to 49.6percent among the youth (18-24).

Asked on the difference between the SWS results and official unemployment data, Ang said: I'm notquestioning the validity of both. They both have statistically sound methods.

According to the economist, the difference between the two unemployment surveys are the time itwas conducted and the coverage of samples.

The SWS conducts unemployment surveys in March, June, September and December; while thestate statistics agency does it in January, April, July and November, said Ang.

Moreover, the state's Labour Force Survey has a larger sample size.

I won't quibble over who's more accurate. They both point to alarming status of employment heredespite recent economic strides. I'd rather focus on how to solve the problem, Ang noted.

More optimism than pessimism

Optimists, or those who think there will be more jobs in the next 12 months, outnumbered thepessimists, or those with the opposing view.

The survey showed 34 percent of the respondents were upbeat about employment prospects, 21percent said there would be fewer jobs and 28 percent expected no change.

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Last December, 32 percent were optimistic, while 22 percent said there would be fewer jobs and 34percent expected no change.

The March 19-22 survey used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults nationwide. Sampling errormargins of 3% for national and 6% for area percentages applied to the survey.

SWS published the results of its latest survey Thursday through its media partner Business World.

Resources processed by Pinoys

Africa stressed that the best way to create more stable jobs is to "have domestic resourcesprocessed by Filipinos themselves."

"Kung ang produkto ay gawa sa Pilipinas, magkakaroon ng libu-libong trabaho para sa Pilipino,magkakaroon ng dagdag na kita para sa bawat Pilipino...mas magiging inclusive ang paglago ngekonomiya," Africa said in an interview on GMA News' News-To-Go on Wednesday.

But since foreign investors have been here for couple of decades, the government should takemeasures to get benefits from them.

"This can be through technology transfer, so learning can happen to Philippine manufacturers,sourcing of materials locally for manufacturing and directing a portion of profits of foreign companiesback to the Philippine economy," Africa said.

In March this year, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the government is

preparing an updated version of the Medium-Term Development Plan (MTDP) focusing on people

and quality jobs to address the growing number of jobless Filipinos.

In this update, we intend to put job creation at the centre of the plan, Balisacan told reporters.

with Danessa Rivera and Sieg Alegado/DVM/KG/VS, GMA News

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/306421/economy/business/a-million-more-pinoys-jobless-as-

unemployment-up-to-25-4-percent-sws

5Philippines Economy: Booming, ButPoverty and Unemployment RemainProblematicRichard Javad Heydarian inWorld 2 months ago

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16/23

Shortly after my piece on the Philippines'

continuing structural economic

vulnerabilities, which generated

considerable controversy and heated

discussions among experts and observers

alike, the countrys stock marketsmanaged to record new historic highs

breaching the 7,000 mark and beyond.

Meanwhile, Standard & Poor's Ratings

Services, following in the footsteps of

Fitch Ratings, has just awarded the

Philippines with its second credit ratings upgrade raising hopes of sustained economic

boom in the years to come. Vaunting its newly-acquired investment grade status, the

Philippines widely celebrated as Asias new economic tiger is poised to access the

global investment pool on a wider scale, while benefiting from lower borrowing costs in

international markets. In addition, the two main drivers of the countrys recent economic

uptick, notably the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) sector and the multi-billion

remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs), are expected to post healthy rates of

growth in the foreseeable future. So far, so good!

The Philippines is no longer the Sick

Man of Asia, now home to one of the

regions most dynamic economies, but there are still huge challenges in trickling down the

growing economic pie. The country is benefiting from the clean governance initiatives of

its top leadership, with ramped-up infrastructure spending fuelling economic expansion,

but the current development paradigm is in need of some fundamental re-configurationsif

it is to addressrampant poverty, mind-boggling inequality, and double digit

underemployment rates in the short- to medium-run. Two important reports in recent

weeks seem to be vindicating my earlier concerns with the necessity to institutionalize

inclusive and sustainable growth in the country.

While the World Bank and the United Nations Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the

Pacific (UNESCAP) forecast a solid 6.2 percent GDP growth for 2013, complementing a

stunning performance in the preceding year, the latest report by the National Statistics

Coordination Board (NSC), however, suggests that despite impressive rates of economic

growth in recent years poverty rates have remained virtually unchanged since 2006. In

the first half of 2012, the national poverty rate stood at 27.9%, compared to 28.8% in 2006

and 28.6% in 2009. No wonder, according to the NSCB, poverty remained unchanged as

the computed differences are not statistically significant. In addition, the report suggests,

some provinces in the conflict-prone southern island of Mindanao have experienced an

increase in poverty rates. Not to mention, the (extreme) "poverty threshold" used by the

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PHILIPPINES ECONOMY: BOOMING, BUT POVERTY ANDUNEMPLOYMENT REMAIN PROBLEMATIC
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-javad-heydarian/philippine-stocks-crash-s_b_2900518.htmlhttp://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/05/03/13/psei-hits-fresh-peak-breaches-7200-markhttp://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/306683/economy/business/s-amp-p-2nd-investment-grade-rating-heightens-phl-concerns-over-forexhttp://www.adb.org/publications/taking-right-road-to-inclusive-growthhttp://www.adb.org/publications/taking-right-road-to-inclusive-growthhttp://thediplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/11/01/manilas-economic-headache/http://thediplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/11/01/manilas-economic-headache/http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/305102/economy/business/poverty-level-remains-unchanged-since-2006-government-surveyhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-javad-heydarian/philippine-stocks-crash-s_b_2900518.htmlhttp://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/05/03/13/psei-hits-fresh-peak-breaches-7200-markhttp://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/306683/economy/business/s-amp-p-2nd-investment-grade-rating-heightens-phl-concerns-over-forexhttp://www.adb.org/publications/taking-right-road-to-inclusive-growthhttp://thediplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/11/01/manilas-economic-headache/http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/305102/economy/business/poverty-level-remains-unchanged-since-2006-government-survey


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government agency was merely $0.62 per day, while that of the World Bank is $1.25 per

day.

Then, most recently, came another study indicating thatas much as 1 million people have

joined the ranks of unemployed in early 2013. According to the Philippine pollster giantSocial Weather Station (SWS), the latest survey (March 19-22) shows that unemployment

rates have risen up to 25.4%, or the equivalent of 11.1 million individuals within the working

force. This compares to 24.6%, or 10.1 million jobless individuals, back in December 2012.

Meanwhile, the official unemployment rate increased from 6.8 percent in 2012 to 7.1% in

January 2013, meaning a total of 2.9 million individuals are now struggling to find a

permanent job.

What these two studies suggest is pretty straightforward: Yes, the Philippines is booming,

and the countrys macroeconomic profile is at its best in recent memory, but the current

growth trajectory is neither significantly poverty-alleviating nor job-generating. Obviously

this means that much of the recent economic expansion has been confined to few sectors:

namely retail, real estate, gambling, and BPO, none of which tend to provide quality,

permanent jobs for the majority of the working force. Meanwhile, manufacturing exports

already struggling with uncertainties in the global economy are hammered by Philippine

currency appreciation, largely due to the flood of hot money inflow that has buoyed the

recent stocks bonanza.

What was the response from the government? Some would say flustered and in denial.

Seemingly shrugging off the disappointing statistics, the countrys technocrats are flushed

with what legendary ex-Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Alan Greenspan, characterized as

Irrational Exuberance: The tendency among market participants to obstinately focus on

instantaneous, shallow gains at the expense of recognizing more fundamental structural

imbalances in the economy, which carry long-term risks of destabilization. They rather

focus on the boom in the stock markets and the investment grade euphoria, than, lets say,

re-examine the merits of the current growth trajectory. In fact, some studies, as business

columnist Ben Kritz notes, suggest that there islittle correlationbetween acquiring an

investment grade status, on one hand, and growth in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), onthe other.

To be fair to the Aquino administration, there is no single magic formula for addressing the

countrys perennial economic challenges. The government has tried very hard to address

extreme poverty, namely through the expansion of the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT)

scheme,which provides financial benefits to indigent sectors in exchange for performance-

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based improvements in crucial areas such as education. It takes years, if not decades, to

reverse the impact of previous governments counter-productive policies.

But this should not be a reason for complacency and obstinately sticking to an economic

paradigm, which sustains boom in certain sectors, but provides limited opportunities for thehuge swaths of unemployed and poor. The answer to the countrys continuing socio-

economic challenges may lie in the policy proposals of Asian Development Banks (ADB)

brilliant senior country economist, Norio Usui, who has continuouslyargued for a re-

focus on the flailing manufacturing sector in order to address the issue of economic

inclusiveness and sustainability.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/39507/philippines-economy-booming-but-poverty-and-

unemployment-remain-problematic

No Free Lunch

6, 7Resuming our industrializationByCielito F. HabitoPhilippine Daily Inquirer10:17 pm | Monday, May 27th, 2013

In the classic economic development story, a country at the early stages of development starts out as an agrarianeconomy where the agriculture sector dominates in both output and employment, relative to the other two major

economic sectors of industry and services. As agriculture grows and productivity increases with technologicalchange, the sector provides a growing market for the products of industry, and releases surplus labour that furtherpropels industrial growth. The economy moves on to the industrialization stage marked by further rises in incomesand employment, supported by scientific and technological innovation. Wealth accumulates and the economymatures, eventually graduating into services sector dominance as higher incomes support growing demands forservices of various kinds.This economic evolution is a story that had been played out in most of todays developed economies. Industrializationwas a critical stage that catapulted them to high-income levels. Our four closest ASEAN neighboursIndonesia,Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnamhave all seen their industry sectors shares of total gross domestic product (GDP)breach 40 percent within the last two decades. Industrys GDP share in Indonesia went as high as nearly half (48.1percent), while the same peaked at 47.4, 41.5, and 40.1 percent for Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand respectively. Allfour continue to have an industry GDP share exceeding 40 percent. In the Philippines, the highest we reached wasonly 34.6 percent, and it was down to 30.3 percent as of 2012. This share hardly changed through the last twodecades, and stayed mostly within the 31-33 percent range. Meanwhile, our neighbours saw their industry sectorsbecome the largest sector in the economy at some point. Here, however, the services sector had consistently been

the largest, and its GDP share rose from 45 to 57 percent from the early 1990s through the present. The growingdominance of services came out of the share of agriculture, whose share dropped from 22 to under 12 percent withinthe same period.Back in the 1990s, some suggested that the Philippine experience was one of leapfrogging the industrializationprocess; that is, we were jumping straight from agriculture to services sector dominance as if accelerating into earlymaturity. We now know with hindsight that this was not exactly a good thing. Our failure to attain wider and deeperindustrialization at the time appears to have taken a toll not only on our overall economic growth rates, but also on theinclusiveness of that growth. What thrived instead were services industries like real estate, banking and insurance,transport, telecommunications and mass mediaall industries where the benefits of growth historically tend to benarrowly distributed. Our much higher level of poverty and inequality relative to our neighbours must at least partly be

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19/23

attributable to this unusual structural growth pattern wherein we failed to industrialize as much as our neighbours didin recent decades.The good news is that all is not lost. We can yet get back on the industrialization track, and theres statistical andanecdotal evidence that this is in fact already happening. We seem to have reached a turning point in 2010, whenmanufacturing somehow found renewed vigour. The proof can be clearly seen in the data. The National StatisticsOffice has tracked growth of key manufacturing industries via the Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries(MISSI). Annual growth reported by the MISSI averaged -4.0 percent (volume of production) in the period 2004-2009

that is, covered manufacturing industries had actually contracted through that six-year period. But the last threeyears (2010-2012) saw a complete turnaround, with annual growth averaging an impressive 10.9 percent.Furthermore, capacity utilization has gone up nearly 2 percentage points, from an average of 80.3 percent in 2004-2009 to 83.1 percent in 2010-2012.

A similar breakout may be seen in the GDP accounts, which track manufacturing sector growth morecomprehensively. The data reveal that overall manufacturing growth averaged only 3 percent annually in 2004-2009,but has averaged 7.5 percent in 2010-2012. But theres more evidence beyond the statistics of a latent resurgence inPhilippine manufacturing. Unknown to most of us, we have already become the fourth largest shipbuilding country inthe world, according to industry insiders. This we owe to substantial investments in shipbuilding and repair facilitieswithin the past decade especially from Korea and Australia in Subic and Cebuand more are coming, we are told. InBatangas City, a sprawling area is being prepared for the impending entry of manufacturing industries that will makeuse of the products of a large petrochemical complex that has been in operation there for years. The management ofthe Phividec Industrial Estate in Misamis Oriental (PIE-MO) now reports an average of six new locators per year,whereas it averaged only two to three in the past. It is already looking to expand further eastward to accommodateinterested new locators. Likewise, the Mindanao Container Terminal servicing has already been slated for further

expansion. In general, manufacturing activity at the small, medium and large scales appears poised for renewedgrowth due to high levels of business confidence clearly manifested in the quarterly survey of business expectationsby the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

All these to me are hopeful signs that we are getting back on the industrialization boat that we missed in decadespastand with that would hopefully come more inclusive growth.

http://opinion.inquirer.net/53445/resuming-our-industrialization

No Free Lunch

8

Fixing exclusive growthByCielito F. HabitoPhilippine Daily Inquirer11:01 pm | Monday, June 17th, 2013

Everybodys talking about inclusive growth, but the latest labour and employment data suggest that the breath takinggrowth our economy has been achieving latelythe fastest in all of Asia, in factis anything but that. The latestquarterly Labour Force Survey (LFS) of the National Statistics Office (NSO) reports that there were actually 21,000fewer jobs overall last April compared to a year ago.With around a million Filipinos joining the labour force every year, we should be gaining a million new jobs each year,not losing them as we just did. I dont recall seeing jobs decline in normal times over the last two decades. But sincelast October, when the LFS reported a whopping loss of 882,000 jobs, and again now, we have begun to see year-

on-year contraction in overall employment, and right when the economy is seeing unusual growth. What gives? Thenumbers dont seem to make sense. But unless and until government says otherwise, these are the official jobs data,and the picture they paint isnt pretty. Rapid growth that comes with job loss is not just jobless growth, whicheconomists have been lamenting for years. It is, more accurately, job-killing growth.For a long time now, I have characterized this inability of our economys growth to bring about commensurate jobs ashollow growth. My long-time readers would know that this is just one of three adjectives I use to more fully describethis exclusive growth we are persistently getting: narrow, shallow and hollow. Narrow growth is seen in how it ispropelled by very few high-growth industries such as business process outsourcing, especially call centres; realproperty development; banking and insurance; and mass media. It is also seen in how more than half of our GDP isgenerated in and around Metro Manila alone. Most of us see it in the way benefits of our growth have been capturedby relatively a few, while the vast majority is in a seemingly endless wait for the trickle downif it will come at all.

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Shallow growth happens when the same limited high-growth industry drivers have little linkage with other industries inthe domestic economy. For example, the bulk of our exports come out of the enclave economies in special economiczones, where duty-free privileges lead firms to naturally source their inputs from overseas rather than from domesticproducers. There is little domestic content beyond assembly labour in our top exports. Electronics are both our topexport and our top import, as we simply assemble imported chips into the circuit boards that still mostly comprise ourelectronics exports that are still to be turned into final products elsewhere. The same is true with our garmentsexports, with the textiles going into them being almost entirely imported as well. Such low domestic value-added

products are the kinds of export industries encouraged by a currency stronger than it should be, propped up by hotmoney inflows fuelled by speculative demand.What will it take to fix our exclusive growth? Clearly, we cant go on with business as usual. An economy whose keygrowth sectors are highly concentrated in a few large players can never deliver inclusive growth. Fundamentalrestructuring in our economy is needed if it is to grow on a much broader base. Thus, apart from fostering largenumbers of small and medium enterprises, we need our lawsand our Constitution, where necessaryto wrestopen the stranglehold that large dominant players have had on certain key industries for much too long. It is only withmore competition from more players, whether from within or without, that the highly skewed and exclusive nature ofthe Philippine economy can significantly improve. Proposed laws to strengthen our competition policy and outlawmonopolistic practices have long been languishing in Congress, meeting stiff resistance from those who are not aboutto give up long-held market dominance. President Aquino would do well to ensure that we achieve this one criticallegislation toward inclusive growth, which many of our Southeast Asian neighbours already have, in the remaininghalf of his term.On developing and strengthening small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to broaden our economic base, it is hightime we turned lip service into real action. Pushing for SMEs is not a job for the Department of Trade and Industry

alone; it must be a government-wide concern. If President Cory Aquino had declared agrarian reform as hercentrepiece program, perhaps its time for her President-son to move on to a new centrepiece economic program thatcan make the real difference for inclusive growth: a big push for SMEs. Their biggest impediments have alwaysbeen well-known, and foremost is their lack of access to adequate finance. I would like to see our monetaryauthorities push inclusive finance beyond talk, into creative changes in banking rules and regulations that will leadthe big banks to seek rather than shun small businesses as clients. Meanwhile, public research and academicinstitutions must focus on the technology needs of SMEs. Agriculture authorities must look beyond the farms and helpfoster value chain linkages between primary producers and SME processors. And SMEs must be assisted to formclusters to ensure that they can meet volume demands from institutional markets whether at home or overseasthecommon Waterloo of many a small entrepreneur who prefers to go kanya-kanya rather than sama-sama.Inclusive growth will not happen overnight, to be sure, but the most meaningful steps must be taken now if it is tohappen at all. To my mind, given his deep political capital, this President is best placed to do it.

http://opinion.inquirer.net/54779/fixing-exclusive-growth

Related reading

Taking the Right Road to Inclusive Growth

Industrial Upgrading and Diversification in the PhilippinesNorio Usui

http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2012/taking-right-road-to-inclusive-growth.pdf

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Business Process Outsourcing Concept

http://www.managementstudyguide.com/business-process-outsourcing.htm

Manilas Economic HeadacheBy Javad Heydarian

November 1, 2011

http://thediplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/11/01/manilas-economic-headache/

No Free Lunch

Where did our growth come from?ByCielito F. HabitoPhilippine Daily Inquirer9:55 pm | Monday, June 3rd, 2013

http://opinion.inquirer.net/53929/where-did-our-growth-come-from

IV. Data Analysis

Definition of Terms:

agrarian - relating to agriculture or farming.8

exclusive growth the opposite of inclusive growth

hot money - money that moves at short notice from one financial centre to another in

search of the highest short-term interest4

inclusive growth - basically means, broad based growth, shared growth, and pro-poor

growth. It decreases the rapid growth rate of poverty in a country and increases the

involvement of people into the growth process of the country. Inclusive growth by its very

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definition implies an equitable allocation of resources with benefits incurred to every

section of the society.1

industrial sector - the part of the economy concerned with producing goods without much

direct input of natural resources.6

industrialization - the process of moving resources into the industrial sector.5

poverty - inability to afford an adequate standard of consumption2

service industry - the parts of the economy providing services. These may be to individual

consumers, for example medical treatment or entertainment, or to businesses, for example

architectural, cleaning, computing, engineering, or legal work. In some cases, such as

restaurants, a combination of goods and services is provided.7

small and medium enterprises - Small and medium enterprises or small and medium-sized

enterprises (SMEs, small and medium-sized businesses, SMBs, and variations of theseterms) are companies whose personnel numbers fall below certain limits. The abbreviation

"SME" is used in the European Union and by international organizations such as

the World Bank, the United Nations and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Small

enterprises outnumber large companies by a wide margin and also employ many more

people. SMEs are also said to be responsible for driving innovation and competition in

many economic sectors.9

unemployment - inability to obtain a job when one is willing and able to work3

Abbreviations:

ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations

BPO Business Process Outsourcing

GDP Gross Domestic Product

NSC National Statistics Coordination

SWS Social Weather Station

UNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific

What is Inclusive Growth?

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February 10, 2009

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDEBTDEPT/Resources/468980-

1218567884549/WhatIsInclusiveGrowth20081230.pdf

A Dictionary of Economics (3rd ed.)John Black, Nigar Hashimzade, and Gareth Myles

http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199237043.001.0001/acref-9780199237043

A Dictionary of Business and Management (5 ed.)Edited by Jonathan Law


A Dictionary of Environment and Conservation

Chris Park


ENTERPRISE AND INDUSTRY PUBLICATIONS The new SME definition, User guide andmodel declarationArticle 2

http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/sme/files/sme_definition/sme_user_guide_en.pdf

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exclusive growth a socio-economic research paper

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