Evolution of Climate Models

How we study the climate has changed as technology

has improved.

Mid 1970s Early climate models were limited. They only included: • Carbon dioxide• heat from the sun (radiation)• Rain• NOT even clouds were considered.

NOTE: Even in the1970’s we were

aware that CO2 was a greenhouse gas!

Linking CO2 to Climate Change

Landmark Study Connecting Global Warming to CO2 Levels- VIDEO

Mid 1980s

• Clouds, land surface and ice were added into the mix in the 1980s.

• Different types of land behave differently• Specific heat• Albedo

• Deserts and ice are more likely to reflect radiation, and forests are more likely to absorb it.

1988- IPCC is Established

Climate change is a very complex issue:

policymakers need an objective source of information about the causes of climate change, its potential

environmental, Social, and Economic

consequences and the adaptations and options required to respond to it.

This is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

established to provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about climate change

To do this, they assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic publications relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.

Its constituency is made of : The governments: the IPCC is open to all member countries of

WMO and UNEP. The scientists: hundreds of scientists all over the world contribute

to the work of the IPCC as authors, contributors and reviewers. The people: as United Nations body, the IPCC work aims at the

promotion of the United Nations human development goals

The information that the IPCC provides with its reports is based on scientific evidence and reflects existing viewpoints within the scientific community.

Provides reports that immediately become standard works of reference, widely used by policymakers, experts and students

The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Why not???

Its role is to comprehensively and objectively assess the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature

Non-Partisan / Non-Profit so IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy (although they need to deal objectively with climate-related policy).

GOAL to provide information in a policy-relevant but policy neutral way to help decision makers.

When governments accept the IPCC reports and approve their Summary for Policymakers, they acknowledge the legitimacy of their scientific content.

1990 - IPCC’s first Assessment Report (AR1)

A simple model of the oceans now joins the picture, as the first IPCC report comes out.

only the top layer of the sea was modeled

The findings of the first IPCC Assessment Report of 1990 played a decisive role in

leading to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),

UNFCCC was opened for signature

in the Rio de Janeiro Summit in 1992

and entered into force in 1994.

It provides the overall policy framework

for addressing the climate change issue.

1996 Second Assessment Report (AR2)

More sophisticated models of the ocean are added.

Sulphates and Volcanoes are also added. Volcanic eruptions throw

greenhouse gases and particles into the atmosphere, which can block sunlight and temporarily reduce global temperatures. (vs Pollution-induced global dimming, which will persist for as long as we pollute!

The IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1996 provided key input

for the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997

1997 – The Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the UNFCCC.

Adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 (Which US administration?)

Entered into force on 16 February 2005. (Which US administration?)

Sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions an average of five percent vs. 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.

Recognizes that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity

the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.”

2001 Third Assessment Report (AR3)

By bringing the carbon cycle into the picture, the different ways C02 is stored and released into the atmosphere gives greater realism to climate models.

Additional details about the ocean circulations, aerosols, rivers, etc.

184 Parties of the Convention have ratified its Protocol

US Refused to ratify in 2001, becoming the only industrialized nation to not comply

What was going on, politically, in the US at that time? Economic downturn

– post internet boon Mid-East tensions

– Saddam Hussein threats to switch fuel sale to Euro

9/11 – change of national priorities

2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

Chemical reactions in the atmosphere join the climate models; Ozone Nitrous oxide Sulfur dioxide CFC’s Water Vapor Etc.

Plants and vegetation are included Scientists have reached vast

consensus that human activities contribute to the greenhouse effect due to industrial processes

Models are now produced using computing power 256 times more powerful than that available in the 1970s.

REVIEW: As of 2007, What were the “universally accepted” factors that made up climate?

Carbon Dioxide Radiation from the sun Precipitation Clouds Land formations (including ice) Land use – “Concrete Jungle” of urbanization Complex Models of Oceans Volcanic Eruptions The Carbon Cycle Chemical Reactions in Atmosphere The Role of Vegetation

Over 5 decades, we gradually began to see the earth as a true system of interacting cycles

Changes in one cycle or activity can fuel a domino effect in other cycles Ex: Deforestation can lead to an increase in

greenhouse gases and raise global atmospheric temperatures

Ex: Change in warm atmosphere can cause increased ocean temperatures, which change the atmosphere

SOURCE:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/07/sci_nat_climate_models/html/3.stm

What other systems do you think should be considered in climate models of the future?

The IPCC is currently starting to outline its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

The outline of the AR5 will be developed through a process which involves climate change experts from all relevant disciplines and users of IPCC reports (esp. representatives from governments).

will be finalized in 2014.

Go back to presentation

We gradually began to see the earth as a true system of interacting cycles

Changes in one cycle act can fuel a domino effect in other cycles

What other systems do you think should be considered in climate models of the future?

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SOURCE:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/07/sci_nat_climate_models/html/3.stm

The Climate Change

Controversy

On March 29, 2001, the Bush Administration withdrew the United States from the

1997 Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change.

Cited reasoning: Report was too politically motivated, without enough

science Many countries of the world are completely exempted

from the Protocol, such as China and India, who are two of the top five emitters of greenhouse gasses in the world.

Negative impacts to US economy Protocol could have potentially significant repercussions

for the global economy It is in no country’s best interest to sacrifice their

or the United States’ economic growth, which could have adverse effects around the world.

Provisions under to Kyoto Protocol would rely on inflexible regulatory structures that would distort investment and waste billions of dollars on pollution permits, accomplishing no real change for the environment.

President Bush caught a lot of heat from Environmental Groups

and Scientists for this move.

What are some criticisms that Bush received?

Bush Administration established a Cabinet-level working group to find a method to work with global climate change that was “more practical” for the US economy

US Goal: To boost the field of environmental conservation with “market-based” incentive structures. In other words, save environment, but make money while

doing it Resulted in an US energy policy that reflected the seriousness

and practicality of the future of United States’ environmental policy.

February of 2002 the Clear Skies and Global Climate Change Initiatives.

These initiatives collectively accomplish the following for global climate change: By 2018, cuts emissions of the three worst air pollutants by

seventy percent. In the next ten years, America commits to cutting

greenhouse gas intensity by 18%. Achieves goals comparable to the Kyoto Protocol using

market-based approaches

What are market-based approaches to reducing greenhouse gases?

1. Cap and Trade (tradable permits)

2. Carbon Taxes

3. Carbon Credits

MBIS give companies the power to choose which option works for their situation, and possibly even generate revenue ($$)

1. Cap and Trade (tradable permit)Basically sets a limit (Cap) to which industries may pollute. If a company pollutes less than this limit, it can trade (sell)

its “pollution credits” to a company that surpasses this limit

Regulated and overseen by governmental agencies The federal government auctions the pollution emissions

permits to the companies required to reduce their emissions, it would create a large and dependable revenue stream.

creates a system that guarantees a GHG reductions, while

A. Rewarding the most efficient companies and

B. Ensuring that the cap can be met at the lowest possible cost to the economy

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/01/capandtrade101.html

EX: Permit allows 100 Tons of CO2 to be released per year

Amt Allowed: Amt Produced: Surplus:

Over time, permit allows _____ Tons of CO2 Per year

Amt Allowed: Amt Produced: Surplus:

2. Carbon Taxes

Taxes imposed by government based ona) the carbon content in fuels and/or

b) the amount of carbon released (by weight) by an industry/company

Punitive incentive to lower carbon emissionspunitive = punishment

Criticisms: May encourage companies to relocate Disproportionately taxes smaller income

businesses and individuals

3. Carbon Credits

Similar to Cap and Trade, but in this case, the company purchases “carbon credits” and the funds to help “offset” the impact of carbon that they produce

deploy projects that reduce GHG emissions commercialize new clean technologies in the

U.S. and worldwide Purchase acres of rainforest in the amazon

Controversy around Global Warming

Scientists are at a vast consensus, but many social groups are in strong opposition “Global Warming is a Hoax” “Humans can’t impact the climate – the climate

changes on its own” “CO2 is not a major greenhouse gas”

“More CO2 is actually a nutrient for the planet” “Fixing global warming will destroy the economy”

The “Upside” of the Controversy

Anti-Global Warming groups have been actively to “debunk the global warming myth” Heartland Institute

Criticized for getting funding from auto and gas industries Why would these industries be interested in opposing the notion that

increased CO2 leads to “global warming”?

Anti-Global Warmists are considered controversial because they are opposed to the opinions of “the vast majority of science”

CONSIDER THIS. In the past, we were CERTAIN that… The Earth was flat Earth was the center of the universe The Sun was the center of the universe… The proton and neutron were the smallest parts of matter…

The “Upside” of the Controversy?

Science is progressive- it is an ever growing, expanding and changing body of knowledge

“Opposition Groups” often provide funding for research to prove that humans are NOT contributing to climate change

Regardless of who is funding the research, there is value in skepticism!

We keep learning more about how complex the climate really is as our technology improves

….Who knows, maybe one day there will be a discovery that proves that they are right!

In science (and life!), there is tremendous value in balancing

skepticism and open-mindedness. This is perfectly

embodied in the Climate Change issue!