topic 6: climate change and climate models in colombia
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Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
Climate Change Impacts in ColombiaWhat the IPCC 4th Assessment Report has found:
• Retreat of glaciers are affecting already compromised water availability for consumption or hydropower generation [TS4.2 & 13.2.4].
• Between 1990-2000 a 82% reduction in glaciers, showing a linear withdrawal of the ice of 10-15 m yearly. Under the current climate trends, glaciers of the country will disappear completely within the next 100 years [Table 13.3]
• In the future, sea level rise, weather and climatic variability and extremes modified by global warming are very likely to have impacts on mangroves [13.4.4].
• SLR of 1.0 m would permanent flood 4,900 km2 of low lying coast. About 1.4 million people would be affected, 7,208,299 ha of crops and pasture will be lost [Table 13.7].
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
Predictability of weather and climate
Trenberth
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
CAM T341- Jim Hack
Climate Models as a tool for future projections
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
What is behind a climate model
www.bom.gov.au
• 3-dimension mathematical Grid• Based on physical laws• Represented by equations• Horizontal Resolution: 150-500 km
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
Future of GCM – Earth System Models
Ice Sheet
IPCC, 2001
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
Auflösung GCM – Earth System Model
0
220
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ho
rizo
nta
l G
rid
Siz
e (K
m)
310km
220km
160km
110km
78km
55km
39km 28km
11km
GlobalGeneral
Circulation
Continentallarge-scale
flow
Regional
local
IPCC AR42004 4TF
IPCC AR31998
IPCC AR52010 500TF
L. Buja, NCAR, 2007
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
GCMs for impact assessments
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
Dynamical Downscaling - RCM
• 200-500 km horizontal resolution• GCM: Scenarios possible• Re-Analysis: ‘perfect boundary
conditions‘
GCM
Re-Analysis (z.B. ERA40)Regional Climate Model
www.climateprediction.net
Emissionsszenario
• 10-50 km horizontal resolution• `time-slice‘ experiments CTRL (e.g. 1961-1990) SCEN (e.g. 2071-2100)• Initial and lateral conditions
provided by GCM (scenario) or Reanalyses (current climate)
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
Statistical Downscaling
UC, Santander, Spain
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
IPCC GCM results
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
Temperature at 2030
Averages and Extremes
IPCC GCM results
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
Precipitation 2030
Averages and Extremes
IPCC GCM results
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
IPCC GCM web tool
Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009
Group 6: CC and Climate Models in Colombia
• Which large scale atmospheric circulation pattern influence Colombia’s climate, and how?
• IPCC GCM analysis (web tool): What past climate trends and future projections for Colombia can be detected?
• Based on the IPCC GCM analysis: How relate your findings to the impacts found by IPCC for Colombia (first slide)?