evacuation in case of large scale flooding in the netherlands 3 march 2010 matthijs kok, bas kolen...

Evacuation in case of large scale flooding in The Netherlands

3 March 2010

Matthijs Kok, Bas Kolen

HKV consultants

www.hkv.nl

Topics

• Introduction

• Flood policy in The Netherlands

• Definitions of evacuation

• Evacuation scenarios

• Discussion about model assumptions

• Conclusion and questions

HKV - Water and Safety

• Private Company, 65 people

• Applied research and advise in:

• Risk analyses

• Emergency management

• GIS and IT

• Water systems

• 4 offices (Lelystad, Delft, Aken (GER), Jakarta (Asia)

• 15% of budget for R&D

• 15% target for projects outside The Netherlands

• Main client: Dutch Authorities (National en regional level)

Flood policy in The Netherlands

1953: “This may never happen again” Focus on prevention

1. International high safety level

2. Low probability, mass impact

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F lo o d P r o t e c t io n A c t

I m p l i c i t v a lu e s3. Policy (since 2008

National Water Plan):

• Prevention (law)

• Spatial planning

• Emergency management (planning, forecasting)

Flood protection in The Netherlands

1. Coast and river

2. Canals

3. Rainfall

Flood protection in The Netherlands

• Frequency flood (river, sea) 1/1250 – 1/10.000 year (protection act)

• Frequency threat is more1/10 (alarm)1/100-500 year (evacuation – estimated)

• Early warning: Flood Forecasting Centers

• Bottom up alarm procedure

• River: 2-3 days

• Sea: 6h – 1 day

• New (more) mid term models: Top down procedureNational Commission Flooding (LCO)

• Disaster Management Planning by National and regional planning (safety region, water board, etc)

Possible scenarios

1. Size (large, small)

2. Forecast (lead time: early, late)

3. Threatened area is sum all possible scenario’s, threatened area is related to window of forecast

‘Safety Standards’ Katwijk ‘Safety Standards’ Rotterdam

Worst Credible Flood ‘upper limit’

4300 square km120 Mld Euro 10.000 casualties

•movie

Organisation crisismanagement

MPT/IPTNCCC

RCC

PCC

MCC

NCC NOCC

The Hague Driebergen

Evacuation: the organization of and the movement to a (relatively) safe place in case of a threat

• Varying destination and moment of onset, types are:

1. Preventive evacuation: Movement before start of disaster to a place outside threatened area

2. Shelter (Horizontal and vertical evacuation): Movement before start of disaster to a shelter of safe haven inside threatened area

3. Shelter in place (only vertical evacuation): Move to upper floors

4. Acute evacuation: Movement after start of disaster before being exposed

5. Rescue:Movement supported by first responders after being exposed

6. Escape: Movement by self reliance after being exposed

Evacuation in The Netherlands

Study ‘National Security, capability based planning’:

• 4 different strategies of evacuation

• 4 types of traffic management

1. Reference

2. Nearest exit

3. Optimal use of exits

4. Flow off areas

• Risk zoning in threatened area based on realistic forecasting (all possible floods)

National Security

Traffic Management / Route Choice

Model assumptions

• Evacuation of threatened area

• People at home at start and are self reliant

• +/- 10% not self supporting

• Communication (Evacuation routes are known, 20% will not ‘listen’)

• Behavior (traffic, departure)

• Enough resources (limitations are the next step)

• Outflow of area

• Road management (worst cases: nearest exit, reference, best cases: optimal use of exits and flow of (user defined))

• Movie

Results: Bottle necks

5 uur 10 uur

15 uur

1 dag

1,5 dag 2 dagen

Aantal voertuigen Per strekkende kilometer

Results: Extern bottle necks

Bottle necks outside ‘evacuation zone’ when also considering outflow

48 hours after start

Movie: National concept evacuation (best case), preventive evacuation

Results after 33 hours

17072%

70072%

14080%

320033%

10080%

Advance national traffic management after 33 hours:

- Evacuation population x 1000

- % success in 33 hours (available time during Floodex)

Results

• More then 72 hours is needed for total preventive evacuation (strategy 1) for the Western Coast

• More then 24 hours is needed for only evacuating self supporting (strategy 4) for the Western Coast

• Preventive evacuation of entire coastal area in 48 hours (that includes 24 hour of severe storm) is not possible

• Vertical evacuation, shelter in place (and support self reliance) is necessary to consider

• Advanced traffic management and strategies could work, but has to be implemented, prepared and communicated in time

Advanced traffic management

Total Preventive evacuation (80%)

Minimall preventive evacuation (30%)

South & North Holland >72 24

Zealand 27 18

No extra traffic management

Total Preventive evacuation (80%)

Minimall preventive evacuation (30%)

South & North Holland >72 >72

Zealand 35 18

Discussion

• Available Time

• Behavior of people

• Traffic management / Route choice

• Expected success of preventive evacuation (taking all possible scenarios into account)

Available time

Extreme Wind

T+..T+1T0T-1T-2T-3T-4T-5T-10..6

Possib

le

Dik

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Bre

ach

Detection and sense making

Early

Detection

Late

Detection

- Uncertainty in forecasts (nature)

- Uncertainty in interpretation of forecasts by decision makers and willingness to take action

Available time

Tijd voor hoog water (dagen)

4 3 2 1 0

Friesland & Groningen

0,05 0,2 0,5 0,15 0,1

Noord-Holland Zuid-Holland

0,05 0,1 0,3 0,45 0,1

Zeeuwse en ZH-eilanden

0 0 0,5 0,4 0,1

Zeeuws Vlaanderen

0 0 0,5 0,4 0,1

Meren 0 0 0,4 0,4 0,2

Rivieren (Rijn) 0 0,2 0,5 0,2 0,1

Rivieren (Maas) 0 0 0,5 0,4 0,1

Benedenrivieren-gebied

0 0 0,2 0,5 0,3

Coast


4 3 2 1 0


0,05 0,2 0,5 0,15 0,1


0,05 0,1 0,3 0,45 0,1


0 0 0,5 0,4 0,1

Zeeuws Vlaanderen

0 0 0,5 0,4 0,1

Meren 0 0 0,4 0,4 0,2

Rivieren (Rijn) 0 0,2 0,5 0,2 0,1

Rivieren (Maas) 0 0 0,5 0,4 0,1


0 0 0,2 0,5 0,3

River


4 3 2 1 0


0,05 0,2 0,5 0,15 0,1


0,05 0,1 0,3 0,45 0,1


0 0 0,5 0,4 0,1

Zeeuws Vlaanderen

0 0 0,5 0,4 0,1

Meren 0 0 0,4 0,4 0,2

Rivieren (Rijn) 0 0,2 0,5 0,2 0,1

Rivieren (Maas) 0 0 0,5 0,4 0,1


0 0 0,2 0,5 0,3

Time

Probability for available time for evacuation (combination of forecasting and decision making)

Extreme Wind

T+..T+1T0T-1T-2T-3T-4T-5T-10..6

Possib

le

Dik

e

Bre

ach


Early

Detection

Late

Detection

Extreme Wind

T+..T+1T0T-1T-2T-3T-4T-5T-10..6

Possib

le

Dik

e

Bre

ach

Detection and sense makingExtreme Wind

T+..T+1T0T-1T-2T-3T-4T-5T-10..6

Possib

le

Dik

e

Bre

ach


Early

Detection

Late

Detection

Citizen response / self reliance

‘Citizen Response’ pertains to all actions taken by citizens (Helsloot & Ruitenberg):

1. preparing for disasters and major accidents

2. during and after disasters and major accidents

3. with the intent to help themselves or others to limit the effects of the disaster or major accident

Conclusions:

• People make rational decisions on their interests, no panic or chaos

• Based on available information en knowledge

• Safety of family members is important

• Taking measures or preparation depends on perception of threat

Citizens response: Willingness to evacuate preventive or not

New Orleans Preventive Evacuation

Stay inside the threatened area

Enquiry 2004 (Heerden & Streva)) 68,8% 31,2% Hurricane Katrina 2005 (Wolshon) 80% 20% Hurricane Gustav 2008 (Cole) 95% 5% Next hurricane? Less / more

Willingness to participate in evacuation is uncertain

Netherlands (NIPO) Preventive Evacuation

Don’t know yet

Stay inside threatened

area

No opinion

River area with experience of evacuation of 1995

68% 28% 3% 1%

River area without experience of evacuation

of 1995

63% 34% 1% 2%

Coastal area that flooded in 1953

56% 38% 2% 4%

Other parts of coastal area 47% 49% 2% 2%


What if all exits are used optimal (no ‘forced or informal’ connection region and route)?


- Reduction of necessary time

- But model assumes:

- Perfect behaviour (route choice far from logical for each driver)

- Perfect implemented measures / decision making

- In reality the best case if not realistic

Expected sucess of preventive evacuation in The Netherlands

- Based on possible scenarios, probabilities in and event tree

Conclusion

• Flood policy has to deal with three layers (prevention, spatial planning and emergency management); standards has to be set for all

• The characteristics of a threat for flood and evacuation depends on space and time: Effectiveness of strategies of self reliance, and support of self reliance depends on actual circumstances

• A risk approach is needed for evacuation that takes uncertainty (threat, behaviour, decision making and environment) into account

• Capacity during emergency is limited, self reliance should be supported and facilitated

• Decision making is dealing with great consequences (economical impact because of the evacuation

• Thinking about evacuation is the start of a crisis (definition of a crisis ‘Rosental & Hart’)

• Authorities should prepare themselves, define standards, for all possible situations and during a crisis be able to select the most relevant; taking uncertainties into account and anticipate on consequences.

HKV CONSULTANTS

[email protected]

www.hkv.nl Contact: Matthijs [email protected]+31 (0)320 –294242

Bas [email protected]+31 (0)320 -294242

www.hkv.nl

Thank youk you

Questions?

mailto:[email protected]


















Authorities

Self reliance public and organisation

Threat (size and (lead) time)

Physical environment

Context of ‘society’ for flood preparedness

evacuation in case of large scale flooding in the netherlands 3 march 2010 matthijs kok, bas kolen...

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