european diesel locomotive and railcar market: strategic analysis of rail alternative powertrain...
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European Diesel Locomotive And Railcar
Market: Strategic Analysis Of Rail Alternative Powertrain Technologies
© 2011 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
M6DB-18
February 2011
2M6DB-18
Disclaimer
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3M6DB-18
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4M64A-18
45
46
Emission Norms and Regulations
Rail Contribution to NOX and Particulate Matter Emissions
CO2 Emissions as per mode of transport
3
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Introduction to European Diesel Locomotive and Railcar
Overview of European Rail Traffic
Segmentation of Diesel Locomotives and Railcars
Present Infrastructure
Passenger Demand
Utilization of Rail Infrastructure
Investment in Rail Infrastructure
Investment Patterns in Transport Infrastructure
2
SlideContentChapter
27Executive Summary1
19
20
22
25
Geographic Definitions and Research Timeline
Definitions
List of Units, Abbreviations and Acronyms
List of Industry participants
Table Of Contents
5M64A-18
47
48
49
50
51
52
Emission Norms and Regulations
Emission Directive 2004/26/EC
Emission Control: Reduction in emissions through the stages
Emission Directive Pushing for Control In Rail Applications
PM VS NOX Level Analysis for Locomotives : Stage IIIB
PM VS NOX Level Analysis for Railcars : Stage IIIB
Need of Newer Fuel for Stage IIIB Engines
3
60
61
63
European Diesel Railcar Market
Overview of European Diesel Multiple unit Market
Drivers and Restraints
Forecast 2010-2020 : Diesel Multiple Units
5
SlideContentChapter
54
55
57
58
European Diesel Locomotive Market
Overview of European Diesel Locomotive Market
Drivers and Restraints
Forecast 2010-2020 : Diesel Locomotives
Market Positioning of Locomotive Manufacturers by Power Rating
4
Table Of Contents
6M64A-18
80
81
82
83
84
Boosting Technologies
Introduction to Boosting
Variable Geometry Turbochargers
Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Variable Geometry Turbochargers
Forecast 2010-2020 : Variable Geometry Turbochargers in Diesel Locomotives
Forecast 2010-2020 : Variable Geometry Turbochargers in Diesel Multiple Units
8
64
European Diesel Railcar Market
Market Positioning of Locomotive Manufacturers by Power Rating
5
65Diesel Locomotive and Railcar Market Challenges6
SlideContentChapter
74
75
76
77
78
Modern Direct Injection Technologies
Introduction to Injection Technologies
Impact of Common Rail on Emissions
Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Common Rail
Forecast 2010-2020 : Modern Injection Technologies in Diesel Locomotives
Forecast 2010-2020 : Modern Injection Technologies in Diesel Multiple Units
7
Table Of Contents
7M64A-18
86
87
88
89
90
91
Energy Storage / Battery Technologies
Introduction
Number of cycles Vs Energy Density
Comparison of Battery Technologies
Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Nickel Cadmium Batteries
Forecast 2010-2020 : Nickel Cadmium Batteries in Diesel Locomotives
Forecast 2010-2020 : Nickel Cadmium Batteries in Diesel Multiple Units
9
94
95
96
Power Control Technologies
Product Attractiveness and Penetration: IGBT and PWM Rectifiers
Forecast 2010-2020 : IGBT systems in Diesel Locomotives and Railcars
Forecast 2010-2020 : PWM Rectifiers in Diesel Locomotives and Railcars
10
103
Traction Motor Technologies
Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Permanent Magnet Traction Motors
12
99
100
Hybrid Powertrain
Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Hybrid Shunters
Forecast 2010-2020 : Hybrid Shunter Locomotives
11
SlideContentChapter
Table Of Contents
8M64A-18
104
105
Traction Motor Technologies
Forecast 2010-2020 : Permanent Magnet Motors in Diesel Locomotives
Forecast 2010-2020 : Permanent Magnet Motors in Diesel Multiple Units
12
107
109
111
112
Exhaust Gas Recirculation and Other NOX Emission Control Technologies
Exhaust Gas Recirculation
Selective Catalytic Reduction
Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Exhaust Gas Recirculation
Forecast 2010-2020 : EGR systems in Diesel Locomotives and Multiple Units
13
120
122
123
124
Idle Reduction Technologies: Auxiliary Power Units and Automatic Engine Start Stop
APU and AESS Cost Savings
Product Attractiveness and Penetration: APU
Forecast 2010-2020 : APU systems in Diesel Locomotives and Multiple Units
Product Attractiveness and Penetration: AESS
15
115
116
Diesel Particulate Filters
Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Diesel Particulate Filters
Forecast 2010-2020 : DPF systems in Diesel Locomotives and Multiple Units
14
SlideContentChapter
Table Of Contents
9M64A-18
132About Frost & Sullivan17
125
Idle Reduction Technologies: Auxiliary Power Units and Automatic Engine Start Stop
Forecast 2010-2020 : AESS systems in Diesel Locomotives and Multiple Units
15
127
130
Conclusion and Recommendations
Snapshot and Overview of Forecasts
Key Trends, Observations and Strategic Recommendations
16
SlideContentChapter
Table Of Contents
10M64A-18
107Diesel Powertrain Market : After Exhaust NOX Reduction (Europe), 201013
120Diesel Powertrain Market: Cost Analysis with Break Even Time For APU & AESS Systems (Europe), 201015
114Diesel Powertrain Market: Effectiveness of the Diesel Oxidation Catalyst in Removing Emissions (Europe), 2010-202014
88Diesel Powertrain Market : Benchmarking of Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 20109
63Railcar Market: Diesel Multiple Unit Forecast (Europe), 2010 5
57Locomotive Market: Diesel Locomotive Forecast (Europe), 2010-20204
47
47
50
51
52
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Emission Standards for Engines 130KW ≤ Power ≤ 560KW in g/kWh (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Emission Standards for Engines of Locomotives & Railcars in g/kWh (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: PM Vs NOX for Stage III B Locomotives (Europe) 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: PM Vs NOX for Stage IIIB Railcars (Europe) 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Stage IIIB Fuel Specifications (Europe) 2010
3
SlideContentChapter
38Rail Market: Segmentation & Number of Diesel Locomotives & Railcars by Engine Size (Europe), 2010 2
29Locomotive & Railcar Market: Number of Diesel Locomotives & Railcars Nearing Retirement Age (Europe), 20101
List of Figures
11M64A-18
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Rail Market : Passenger and Freight Traffic (Europe), 2010
Rail Market: Segmentation of Diesel Locomotives & Railcars by Application (Europe), 2010
Rail Market: Total Length of Railway Network & Electrification (Europe), 2010
Rail Market: Passenger Demand for Rail (Europe), 2010
Rail Market: Utilization of Rail Infrastructure for Freight Transport (Europe), 2010
Rail Market: Investment in transport infrastructure (Europe), 2010
Rail Market: Investment in Transportation Infrastructure in Billion Euros (Europe), 2000-2008
2
SlideContentChapter
27
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
33
34
35
Locomotive Market & Railcar : Regional Split of Diesel Locomotives in Key Countries (Europe), 2010
Locomotive Market & Railcar : Regional Split of Diesel Multiple Units in Key Countries (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Overview of fleet installed in key countries (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Number of Diesel Locomotives & Railcars Nearing Retirement Age (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Total Diesel Locomotive Requirement (Europe), 2010-2020
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Total Diesel Railcar Requirement (Europe), 2010-2020
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Technology Roadmap (Europe), 2010-2020
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Penetration of APU Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010-2020
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Comparison of Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Technology Impact Vs Implementation (Europe), 2010-2020
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Key Findings (Europe), 2010
1
List of Charts
12M64A-18
60
60
61
62
63
64
Railcar Market: Regional Split of Diesel Multiple Units in Key Countries (Europe), 2010
Railcar Market: Overview of Diesel Multiple Unit Fleets Installed (Europe), 2010
Railcar Market : Key Market Drivers (Europe), 2010-2020
Railcar : Key Market Restraints (Europe), 2010-2020
Railcar Market: Diesel Multiple Unit Forecast (Europe), 2010
Railcar Market: Market Positioning of Railcar Manufacturers by Power Rating (Europe), 2010
5
54
54
55
56
57
58
Locomotive Market: Regional Split of Diesel Locomotives in Key Countries (Europe), 2010
Locomotive Market: Overview of Diesel Locomotive Fleets Installed (Europe), 2010
Locomotive Market : Key Market Drivers (Europe), 2010-2020
Locomotive Market : Key Market Restraints (Europe), 2010-2020
Locomotive Market: Diesel Locomotive Forecast (Europe), 2010-2020
Locomotive Market: Market Positioning of Locomotive Manufacturers by Power Rating (Europe), 2010
4
45
46
48
49
50
51
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Oxides of Nitrogen, Sulfur and Particulate Matter Emission by Sector (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Specific CO2 emissions per tonne-km and per mode of transport, (Europe) 1995 - 2009
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Reduction in Emissions for Engines 130KW ≤ Power ≤ 560KW in g/kWh(Europe),2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Emissions for Engines in Rail Application - Stage IIIA & IIIB (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: PM Vs NOX for Stage III B Locomotives (Europe) 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: PM Vs NOX for Stage IIIB Railcars (Europe) 2010
3
SlideContentChapter
List of Charts
13M64A-18
77Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Common Rail, Electronic Injectors & Engine management Systems in Diesel
Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
76Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Common Rail, Electronic Injectors & Engine management Systems in
Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
74Diesel Powertrain Market : Drivers & Restraints for New Engine Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020
75Diesel Powertrain Market : Impact of Common Rail, Electronic Injectors & Engine Management Systems on NOX &
PM Emissions for Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010-2020
76Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Common Rail, Electronic Injectors & Engine management
Systems (Europe), 2010-2020
74Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Engine Technologies (Europe), 2010-20207
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
72
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Identification of Market Challenges (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Identifying Market Size (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Challenge Faced by Electrification (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Challenge of implementing New Technologies (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Challenge of Meeting Emission Norms (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: OPEC Basket Prices of Diesel (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Country wise Comparison of Diesel Prices (Europe), 2010
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Diesel Consumption by Industry (Europe), 2010
6
SlideContentChapter
List of Charts
14M64A-18
89Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Nickel Cadmium Battery Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars
(Europe), 2010-2020
82Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Variable Geometry Turbochargers in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars
(Europe), 2010-2020
83
84
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Variable Geometry Turbochargers in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Variable Geometry Turbochargers in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020
78Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Common Rail, Electronic Injectors & Engine management Systems in Diesel
Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020
7
86
86
87
88
89
Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers & Restraints for Implementing New Batteries (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market : Comparison of Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market : Benchmarking of Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Nickel Cadmium Battery Systems (Europe), 2010-2020
9
80
81
81
82
82
Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Boosting Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Advantages of Variable Geometry Turbochargers (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers for Implementing Turbochargers (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market: Variable Geometry Turbocharger (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Variable Geometry Turbochargers (Europe), 2010-2020
8
SlideContentChapter
List of Charts
15M64A-18
95
95
96
96
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of IGBT Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of IGBT Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of PWM Rectifier Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of PWM Rectifier Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020
94Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of IGBT & PWM Rectifier Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe),
2010-2020
90
91
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Nickel Cadmium Battery Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Nickel Cadmium Battery Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020
9
102
102
103
Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers for Implementing Permanent Magnet Traction Motors (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Traction Motor Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems (Europe), 2010-2020
12
99
99
100
Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Hybrid Shunter Units (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Hybrid Shunter Units (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Hybrid Battery based Shunter Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
11
93
93
94
Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers for Implementing next generation Electronic Power Control (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Power Control Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of IGBT & PWM Rectifier Systems (Europe), 2010-2020
10
SlideContentChapter
List of Charts
16M64A-18
115Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Diesel Particulate Filters (Europe), 2010-202014
112Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Exhaust Gas Recirculation Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-
2020
112Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Exhaust Gas Recirculation Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-
2020
111Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Exhaust Gas Recirculation Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars
(Europe), 2010-2020
104Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
103Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars
(Europe), 2010-2020
12
115Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Diesel Particulate Filters in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010-
2020
109
109
110
111
Diesel Powertrain Market : Selective Catalytic Reduction (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market : Advantages and Disadvantages of Selective Catalytic Reduction (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market : Exhaust Gas Recirculation Mechanism of action (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Exhaust Gas Recirculation Systems (Europe), 2010-2020
13
105Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-
2020
SlideContentChapter
List of Charts
17M64A-18
124Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Automatic Engine Start Stop Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars
(Europe), 2010-2020
123
123
124
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Auxiliary Power Units in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Auxiliary Power Units in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Automatic Engine Start Stop Systems (Europe), 2010-2020
122Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Auxiliary Power Units in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010-
2020
118
119
119
120
121
122
Diesel Powertrain Market: Calculation of Fuel savings by Auxiliary Power Units (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers for Implementing APU / AESS Systems (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Engine Idle Reduction Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Cost Analysis with Break Even Time For APU & AESS Systems (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market: Comparison Between APU, AESS & Hybrid Locomotives (Europe), 2010
Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Auxiliary Power Units (Europe), 2010-2020
15
116
116
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Diesel Particulate Filters in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Diesel Particulate Filters in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020
14
127Diesel Powertrain Market : Snapshot of Diesel Locomotives & Multiple Units (Sales) Forecast (Europe), 2010 – 202016
125Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Automatic Engine Start Stop Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-
2020
SlideContentChapter
List of Charts
18M64A-18
128
129
130
131
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Alternate Powertrain Technologies in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Alternate Powertrain Technologies in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe),2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Trends and Performance Indicators (Europe),2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market: Recommendations for Locomotive & Railcar Manufacturers (Europe),2010-2020
16
SlideContentChapter
List of Charts
19M6DB-18
���� Objectives of the studyThis study aims to identify and analyze:
•Diesel Locomotive & Railcar Market in key European States•Country Focus: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and United
Kingdom•Segment the Locomotives Market and identify the Market Size
•Forecast Locomotive requirements by different segment
•Analyze emission regulations•Provide an in-depth insight into powertrain technologies used
and considered for future emission compliance•Identify complimentary technologies that help reduce emissions
and save fuel and benchmark their potentials
•Provide key finding and recommendation for the various participants in the supply chain.
Short TermShort Term Medium TermMedium Term Long TermLong Term
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020
ForecastPeriod
ForecastPeriod
Time
Line
Time
Line
Geographic RegionsGeographic Regions
Base Year
Base Year
Geographic Definitions and Research Timeline
2017 2018 20192018
Study and analysis is focused in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom
20M6DB-18
Definitions
Locomotive that is designed for propelling freight cars or
wagons..
Locomotives designed and constructed primarily for the
purpose of propelling passenger coaches
Freight
Locomotive
Passenger
Locomotive
A a vehicle for providing the motive power for a train. Has no
payload capacity of its ownLocomotive
A self propelled vehicle designed for transportation of
Passengers that can be used in multiples to form train sets
Railcar / Multiple
Unit
Typically 4 axle locomotives that are primarily used to push and
compile railcars together to form trains within rail yards.
Switcher / Shunter
Locomotive
Refers to the set of components that generate power and deliver it
to the rails through the wheelsPowertrain
21M6DB-18
Definitions
Supplies electric energy to locomotives and multiple units so that they can operate without the need of an engine
Electrification
22M6DB-18
List of Units, Abbreviations and Acronyms
Lithium Ion BatteryLi-ion
Insulated Gate Bipolar TransistorIGBT
Heating, Ventilating and Air conditioningHVAC
HydrocarbonsHC
The amount of pollutant exhausted in grams per kilowatt per hour by the engineG/kWh
Fixed Geometry TurbochargerFGT
European UnionEU
European Rail Traffic Management systemERTMS
Electric Multiple UnitEMU
Exhaust Gas RecirculationEGR
Diesel Particulate FiltersDPF
Diesel Multiple UnitDMU
Carbon monoxideCO
Compound annual growth rateCAGR
Auxiliary power unitAPU
23M6DB-18
List of Units, Abbreviations and Acronyms
Lead Acid batteryPb Acid
Trans-European Transport Networks in EuropeTEN-t
Oxides of SulfurSOX
Selective Catalytic ReductionSCR
Pulse width ModulatedPWM
Parts per millionPpm
The rate at which energy is converted / work is performedPower (kW)
Permanent magnet motorPM Motor
Particulate matterPM
Passenger volume obtained by multiplying number of passengers by the distance travelledPassenger Km (pkm)
Oxides of NitrogenNOX
Nickel Metal Hydride BatteryNI-MH
Nicked Cadmium BatteryNi-CD
Millions of Tonnes per kilometreMt/km
Millions of passengers per kilometreMpass/km
Million Barrels of Oil Equivalentmboe
24M6DB-18
List of Units, Abbreviations and Acronyms
The service of moving one tonne of payload a distance of one kilometreTonne Km (tkm)
Variable Geometry TurbochargerVGT
Measure of how much Energy can be stored in a battery per unit volumeWatt hours/Litre (Wh/L)
25
Extensive telephonic interviews were conducted with regulators, locomotive manufacturers and system
suppliers, Primary research has accounted for 80% of the total research. Multiple interviews with senior level
executives were conducted with some companies to obtain a holistic view of the market.
List of Industry Participants
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Rail Locomotive Market: Indicative List of Interviewed Companies (Europe), 2010
Saft Batteries
Enersys
Voith
Schoma
Clayton Equipment
HOTSTARTFuel Cell Propulsion Institute
AHL TechVossloh
StadlerSiemens Mobility
MTU TognumJM Exhaust
Companies Interviewed
European Environmental
AgencyRailPower
Bombardier TransportationGE Transportation
26
Chapter 1: Executive Summary
2727
UK
18%
Germany
41%
France
14%
Spain
8%
Italy
19%UK
Germany
Spain
Italy
France
Overview of European Rail Market: Snapshot of Diesel Locomotive and
Railcar Fleets
4%
Locomotive Market & Railcar : Regional Split of Diesel Multiple Units in Key Countries (Europe), 2010
UK
8%
Germany
31%
France
34%
Spain
8%
Italy
19%
UK
Germany
Spain
Italy
France
Locomotive Market & Railcar : Regional Split of Diesel Locomotives in Key Countries (Europe), 2010
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
UK, France, Italy
set to become big
markets
Total Volume:
9172 Locomotives
Total Volume:
6149 DMUs
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
• Germany and France are the biggest diesel
locomotive markets. Together they have a combined share of 65% with 6198 locomotives
• UK has the smallest locomotive fleet, but it is expected to have the highest freight traffic growth rate.
• Aging fleet and increased traffic to boost locomotive sales with a CAGR of 4.13%
• Germany is the largest markets for diesel railcars and
will continue to be the biggest consumer for new railcars through to 2020.
• Dual mode railcars are set to become a major trend as the percentage of electrified lines is steadily increasing
across countries.
2828
Total
Diesel Locomotives
Diesel Multiple Units
Defining the Universe: France and Germany together constitute 61% of
the overall diesel locomotive and railcar market
8751
3280
831
France
3216
553 355
Spain
4574
969 1150
United Kingdom
6554
1765
1264
Italy
25772918
Germany
13613
Europe(Estimate)
103051
2571717568
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Overview of fleet installed in key countries (Europe), 2010
United Kingdom has a mandate pushing
for more electrification which is expected
to result in shift of numbers from diesel to
electric locomotives by 2020
Higher
electrification
levels on
passenger
routes has
dampened
DMU
presence
Germany is the biggest market
for diesel locomotives with Power
> 2000 kW
Despite high
electrification levels,
DMUs are still used to
service low traffic
routes
For immediate
interoperability
purposes Spain is
expected to procure
more diesel
locomotives by
2020.
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source:
Frost & SullivanTotal= Diesel + Electric units (locomotives & railcars)
2929
Locomotive fleet Age Analysis: 10298 Locomotives & 1860 Railcars likely
to be replaced starting 2015
24%6%
6%
2327
5501
1548
424 498202 289930
160 279
0
2000
4000
6000
France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom
Num
ber
of
Units
Locmotives (Age >30) Railcars (Age >25)
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Number of Diesel Locomotives & Railcars Nearing Retirement Age (Europe), 2010
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
129
220
2061
810
2200
Power
Rating
(kW)
43748Y7400SNCF
37434Y 8000SNCFFrance
39840218DB Regio
40847290DB
Schenker
70938232DB
SchenkerGermany
Number
of Units
Average
AgeClassOperatorCountry
• France and Germany will be the biggest and first
market to pursue replacements
Key identified operators with massive locomotive
replacement potential
• The Average age of all diesel locomotive fleets in
countries listed below is 36.69 years.
• The Average age of all diesel railcar fleets in
countries listed below is 26.93 years.
3030
130 kW< Power < 560 kW 560 kW< Power < 2000 kW Power > 2000 kW
868011721
11071
17109
5540
7328
2010 2020
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Total Diesel Locomotive Requirement (Europe), 2010-2020
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Sales by 2020: The European diesel locomotive market is concentrated
heavily in the 560kW – 2000kW power range and is expected to grow by 54%
Total Parked:25291
Total Parked:
36153
Total number of Diesel locomotives
expected to be sold by 2020 :
10862
France has a total of 965 and Germany has
632 identified units with age greater than 40
Italy, France & Germany have a total of 1767
locomotives with age greater than 40 years.
Electric alternatives are virtually non existent
in this segment
UK has 92 Diesel units currently operating
(classes 08,09 & 20) Average age: 58.45
CAGR
1.83%
Although requirements of shunting duty have
reduced in UK, there is still strong demand.
CAGR 2.05%
CAGR
5.85%2000-2010 saw massive orders in UK for 221
units, in France for 315 and in Germany for
265 units.
UK has a relatively younger fleet in this
segment and is expected to have lowered
demand (521 units delivered in 1990-2010)
France has 498 diesel units that have are
reaching retirement age ( classes BB 67400, BB
66000, BB 67200 and BB 69200 )Electric presence in this power category is
virtually non existent
For power > 2000kW in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK (1980-2010):
Total Diesel units sold: 386 | Total Electric units sold: 4302
Diesel units have limited proliferation in this
power segment.
Diesel units are most attractive to operators
with un-electrified lines and freight companies
Locomotives in the power range 560-2000kW can be used as medium shunters as well as for line haul
3131
130 kW< Power < 560 kW 560 kW< Power < 2000 kW Power > 2000 kW
11917
17329
5440
9306
149
185
2010 2020
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Total Diesel Railcar Requirement (Europe), 2010-2020
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Sales by 2020: The European diesel railcar market is concentrated heavily in
the 130kW – 560kW power range and is expected to grow by 45%
Total Parked:
17506
Total Parked:
26820Total number of
DMUs expected to be sold by 2020 :
9314
Germany & UK have had a combined delivery
of 1719 DMUs in 1990-2010
This segment is largest market for the DMUs
Factors with biggest impact:
•Lower cost of utilizing infrastructure
•Ease of adaptability to demand
•Funding aid for municipalities from government
for the move towards mass transportation
CAGR
7.65%
CAGR
9.73%
This is the fastest growing DMU segment.
Power 130 -2000 kW : By 2020, 717 units are
expected to reach retirement age
Factors with biggest impact:
•Increased connectivity
•Passenger volumes
•Increased government interest
Diesel Multiple Units are virtually non
existent in this category
For this category in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK (1980-2010):
Total DMUs sold: 1823 | Total EMUs: 4805
For this category in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK (1980-2010):
Total DMUs sold: 3168 | Total EMUs: 780
Italy, Germany & Spain took deliveries of 1553
EMUs in 2000-2010
As railcars have power generated from multiple sources, the power range 130-560kW is more attractive for light to medium density passenger loads
32M6DB-18
European Locomotive & Railcar Technology Roadmap 2010-2025: Powertrain
Downsizing, Transmission Automation and Digitized Controls Emerging as the Key
R&D Focal Points
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Regenerative BrakingDynamic Braking
Lead Acid Batteries
Idle Reduction
Energy recovery
Energy Storage
Lo
co
mo
tiv
e
Syste
ms
Lo
co
mo
tiv
e
En
gin
es
Alt
ern
ate
Fu
els
Automatic Start Stop Systems Auxiliary Power Systems
Ultra capacitors
Exhaust Gas Utilization
Electronic Power Control
Fuel Injection & Advanced Combustion
Intercoolers & Turbochargers Advanced Variable Geometry Turbochargers
Exhaust After Treatment
PWM RectifiersAdaptive Control
Common Rail Direct Ignition
Variable Valve TimingHomogeneous Charge Compression Ignition
Exhaust Gas Recirculation
Diesel Oxidation Catalyst + Diesel Particulate FiltersSelective Catalytic Reduction
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Hybrid Locomotive
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Hybrid
Lead acid battery Mild Hybrid Locomotive
Lithium Ion / Nickel Cadmium
Full Hybrid – Li-ion Battery electric locomotive
Traction Motors AC Induction AC Permanent Magnet
IGBT Control
. S
ou
rce
: F
rost &
Su
llivan
Locomotive & Railcar Market: Technology Roadmap (Europe), 2010-2020
3333
2020 Diesel Powertrain Market: Penetration of APU systems in locomotives rises
to 61%; Locomotives and railcars to utilize newer battery technologies
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Comparison of Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 2010
19%23%
32%
43%
55% 55% 54%61%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
13%
9%16%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Imple
menta
tion (
%)
Locomotives Railcars
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Penetration of APU Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010-2020
• Over 1408 diesel locomotives are expected to have APU
systems installed by 2020.
• Will see highest rates of implementation in the 560-
2000kW power category.
• Fuel Savings of up to 29000 litres in one working year.
• It is expected to achieve 61% implementation in all
locomotives by 2020.
• Product attractiveness is expected to reach greater than
80% on the desirability scale.
• Pb Acid is expected to lose favour towards newer battery
technologies.
• Ni-Cd and Li-ion batteries seem to have greatest levels of
interest and research for rail applications.
• Li-ion batteries have greatest energy densities and are
perfectly suited for hybrid locomotives.
• Ni-Cd batteries are slowly replacing Pb Acid batteries.
• Ni-Cd batteries are expected to capture 35% of the market
share by 2020.
0
400
800
1200
1600
0 50 100 150
Energy Density
Num
ber
of
Cycle
s
Pb Acid Ni-Cd Ni Mh Li IonNote: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Stage IIIB emission deadlines will not cause drastic
implementation of APU systems in locomotives. However
due to its significant contribution to fuel savings, Operators
will gradually adopt APU systems. Manufacturers are likely
to slowly offer it as standard to remain competitive
Railcars have Head End
power units that double as
APU systems when engine is
not operating.
Shift in focus towards newer battery
technologies in rail applications
34M6DB-18
By 2020 Diesel Locomotives in Europe are expected to be far more fuel
efficient (by 16- 20%) than they were in 2010: Advanced Alternative Power-train
Technologies are Likely to be the Key Enablers
Advanced Microprocessor Control, Increased
Software control Of Power Distribution
Auxiliary Power Unit that keeps locomotive running when engine is shut down
during idling
Smaller Cleaner Engines with improvements in Fuel injection, Valve Actuation,
Friction Losses
Newer battery technology leading to more efficient,
high energy, high capacity solutions
Advances in power transmission electronics,
drives and motors
Lightweight materials with higher strengths reduce
problems of creep, repeated stress strain
cycles
Newer Aerodynamic modeling solutions for
chassis that aim to reduce Induced drag.
Exhaust After treatment that reduces particulate matter and NOX become
standard
Robust electronics that are an integral part of the
engine. Air cooled inverters more efficient
Optimized Air management Systems. With controlled turbo-
charging.
Proliferation of cam-less engines with HCCI
Very High Impact High
Imm
ed
iate
Imp
lem
en
tati
on
Near
Fu
ture
Increased Energy Regeneration from as
many sources as possibleReduced
running
costsIncreased
Profits
3535
Key Takeaways : Europe Diesel Powertrain Markets
Alternate fuels and Fuel cell
technologies still in research phase.
Strong demand for passenger rail cars : 3247 Units expected to be
delivered by 2020
Diesel Locomotive Market in the
560-2,000 kW range expected to
grow at 5.85% CAGR
Battery based hybrid locomotives
ideal for shunter / switcher applications. Expected to be gain
prominence by 2020
Locomotive & Railcar Market : Key Findings (Europe), 2010
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Low Sulfur diesel is to become standard supply
By 2020, Battery technologies like
Li-ion are expected to have
increased presence and be economically feasible. Current
generation NiCD set to replace lead acid
10,298 Locomotives & 1,860 Railcars likely to be replaced starting 2015
OEMs to expand portfolio to have
presence in all power segments
Permanent magnet traction motors to have tremendous market
penetration from current levels, 2% to 27% by 2020
Variable geometry turbochargers
likely to have 100% implementation in all railcars by 2020
A total of 7313 units (both diesel locomotives and railcars) are
expected to utilise at least one form
of idle reduction (example APU)
Common rail injection systems to
become standard for all diesel powertrains
Key Findings
36
Chapter 12: Traction Motor Technologies
3737
Traction Motors:
AC motors with permanent magnets
Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Traction Motor
Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020
Permanent Magnet Motor
Three Phase Asynchronous Motor
Three phase asynchronous motors have seen increased
market presence in the last 10 years as they have
greater efficiency and very efficient at brake energy recovery.
Conventionally used for wind turbines, permanent
magnet motors are seeing increased usage in rail applications.
Larger portion of braking can
be done electrically
Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers for Implementing
Permanent Magnet Traction Motors (Europe), 2010
Drivers
Reduced volume &
weight
Optimized energy
efficiency
Permanent Magnet Motor: Bombardier Mitrac
•Reduced energy consumption
•Less requirements for motor cooling
•Higher performance
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Source: Frost & SullivanSource: Bombardier
3838
Permanent Magnet Traction Motors : Very high desirability and is poised
to replace conventional traction motor technologies
10%12% 13%
17% 18%21%
24%27%
3%2%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Imp
lem
en
tatio
n (
%)
PM Motor
Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars
(Europe), 2010-2020
Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems (Europe), 2010-2020
• Over 2-5% savings in energy potential throughout fleet
• Enhanced brake energy regeneration
• Increased friction brake life
0 20 40 60 80 100
2020
2010
Disirability in %
Product
Attractiveness
Expected to become industry standard by 2017
3939
Permanent Magnet Traction Motor Forecast : Diesel Locomotives
By 2020, 430 diesel locomotives are likely to use PM motors
2 3 4 7 9 12 13 17 19 20 22
3 68
1216
2429
3644
57
23
4
6
6
8
10
11
12
1
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Nu
mb
er
of U
nits
130<Power<560 560<Power<2000 Power>2000
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
• Operators are currently upgrading DC traction motors to AC traction motors for increased savings and reduced operating costs.
• At present, permanent magnet motors are being used in a blended mode (out of 6 total motors:4 induction and 2 permanent magnet motors) for trial and testing purposes.
• So far the PM motor has been extremely successful and is undergoing further testing.
• Diesel locomotives tend to have the option of having hydraulic transmissions
• Dual mode diesel and electric locomotives are having increased presence as rail operators demand interoperability. It is this locomotive market that PM motors will have greatest penetration in
4040
Permanent Magnet Traction Motor Forecast : Diesel Railcars
By 2020, 517 diesel multiple units are likely to use PM motors
Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
2 410 14 18 22
31 3645
5565
813
17
2126
35
39
48
4
1 20
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Nu
mb
er
of U
nits
130<Power<560 560<Power<2000
• PM motors have greatest significance for railcars : increased motor life, reduced railcar weight and availability of torque in a wide speed range
• Reduction in size of up to 25% coupled with quiet vibration free operation makes it ideal for multiple unit applications.
• Demand in 2010 is at 1% of total traction motor market. PM motors have high efficiencies and are expected to have tremendous penetration of 27% by start of 2017.
• After which PM motors are expected to become industry standard
41
Chapter 17: About Frost & Sullivan
4242
Who is Frost & Sullivan
• The Growth Consulting Company
• Founded in 1961, Frost & Sullivan has over 45 years of assisting clients with their decision-making
and growth issues
• Over 1,700 Growth Consultants and Industry Analysts across 32 global locations.
• Over 10,000 clients worldwide - emerging companies, the global 1000 and the investment
community.
• Developers of the Growth Excellence Matrix – industry leading growth positioning tool for
corporate executives.
• Developers of T.E.A.M. Methodology, proprietary process to ensure that clients receive a 360o
perspective of technology, markets and growth opportunities.
• Three core services: Growth Partnership Services, Growth Consulting and Career Best
Practices.
4343
What Makes Us Unique
• Exclusively Focused on Growth
Global thought leader exclusively focused on
addressing client growth strategies and plans –
Team actively engaged in researching and
developing of growth models that enable clients
to achieve aggressive growth objectives.
• Industry Breadth
Cover the broad spectrum of industries and
technologies to provide clients with the ability to
look outside the box and discover new and
innovative ideas.
• Global Perspective
32 global offices ensure that clients receive a
global coverage/perspective based on regional
expertise.
• 360o
Perspective
Proprietary T.E.A.M.TM
Methodology integrates
all 6 critical research methodologies to
significantly enhance the accuracy of decision
making and lower the risk of implementing
growth strategies.
• Growth Monitoring
Continuously monitor changing technology,
markets and economics and proactively address
clients growth initiatives and position.
• Trusted Partner
Working closely with client Growth Teams –
helping them generate new growth initiatives
and leverage all of
Frost & Sullivan assets to accelerate their
growth.
4444
T.E.A.M. Methodology
• Frost & Sullivan’s proprietary T.E.A.M. methodology, ensures that clients have complete “360
Degree Perspective” from which to drive decision-making. Technical, Econometric, Application, and
Market information ensures that clients have a comprehensive view of industries, markets and
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4545
Global Perspective
• 1,700 staff across every major market worldwide
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