advanced powertrain technologies and the north american locomotive market

Advanced Powertrain Technologies Expected to Steam Up the North American Locomotive Market

Surendar Chandrasekaran, Research AnalystSurendar Chandrasekaran, Research Analyst

Automotive & Transportation

26th May 2010

Today’s Presenter: Surendar Chandrasekaran

Functional Expertise

• Three years of experience in research and analytics, which include market analysis across industries with particular focus on the automotive and transportation domain. Particular expertise in:

- Market mapping, sizing and forecasts

- Market entry strategy

- Technology analysis

Industry Expertise

� Experience base covering a broad range of sectors in the automotive & transportation domain:

- European & American rail OEMs

- Rail infrastructure providers (track, electrification, signaling)

- Seating and interior solutions

What I Bring to the Team

Place photo here

Shadow Background for

effect

2

What I Bring to the Team

� Strong understanding of the diversified business segments within the rail industry

� Creative representation of complex information methodologies

� Long-standing working relationships with leading industry participants’ Senior Executives

Career Highlights

� Extensive expertise in European urban and high-speed passenger rail sectors

� Worked with several leading firms and associations including:

- Euro Copper Institute

- Lockheed Martin

- Bombardier

Education

• Executive Diploma in Financial Management, Madras University, Chennai

• Masters of International Business, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

• Bachelors in Engineering (Computer Science), Bharatiyar University, Coimbatore, India

Surendar ChandrasekaranSenior Research Analyst

Frost & SullivanSouth AsiaChennai, India

Focus Points

Global Trends and The Rail Advantage

Introduction to the North American Locomotive Market

A Goal Post Analysis on the Locomotive Powertrain Market

EPA Emissions and Challenges

In-Powertrain Technologies for Emission Reduction

Penetration Analysis of Powertrain Technologies

Analysis on Effectiveness of Powertrain Technologies in NOX Reduction

3

Analysis on Effectiveness of Powertrain Technologies in NOX Reduction

Idle Reduction Technologies

Hybrid Locomotive Concepts and Penetration Analysis

Locomotive Powertrain Technology Roadmap

Key Findings

Next Steps

For Additional Information

Mega Corridors in 2050: Global Snapshot of Future Mega Corridors Connecting Two Or More

Large Cities or Mega Regions and Characterised by High Levels of Industrialisation/Urbanisation

– A Major Potential for Rail Freight and Passenger Services

Evolution of Megacities: Mega Corridors (Global), 2050Evolution of Megacities: Mega Corridors (Global), 2050

Northern and Northern and

Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou

Corridor: Home to 120 Million People

Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou

Corridor: Home to 120 Million People

Tokyo- Osaka Corridor: Home to 90

Million People

Tokyo- Osaka Corridor: Home to 90

Million People

Trans European Transport Network (TEN-T) serving entire

Europe

Trans European Transport Network (TEN-T) serving entire

Europe

CascadiaCascadia

Front Range Corridor

Front Range Corridor

Great Lakes Corridor

Great Lakes Corridor

North East Corridor

(BOSWASH)

North East Corridor

(BOSWASH)

Abu Dhabi -Abu Dhabi -g/pkm

4

Northern and Southern California Corridor

Northern and Southern California Corridor

120 Million People120 Million People

São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro Corridor:

Home to 50+ Million People

São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro Corridor:

Home to 50+ Million People

Mumbai – Pune, Chennai –Bangalore, Delhi –

Chandigarh and many others

Mumbai – Pune, Chennai –Bangalore, Delhi –

Chandigarh and many others

Ibadan-Lagos-Accra Urban Corridor: 600

Kilometers

Ibadan-Lagos-Accra Urban Corridor: 600

Kilometers

Arizona Sun Corridor

Arizona Sun Corridor

The Texas Triangle

The Texas Triangle

Florida CorridorFlorida

Corridor

Piedmont Atlantic

Piedmont Atlantic

Abu Dhabi -Dubai

Abu Dhabi -Dubai

g/km

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

While rail’s green tag is driving investments and its popularity, recovering rail freight volumes are reassuring rail’s viability financially.

160

205

20

23

60

Bus

Air

Vessel

Frieght Rail

Truck

CO2 Emission Advantage Of Rails

g/tkm

g/tkm

g/pkm

g/pkm

g/tkm

Fre

igh

tP

as

sen

ge

r

NOX VS PM contributions by Mobile Source (North America), 2010

High Way

34%

Locomotiv e

19%

Marine

16%

Other Non

Road 31%

High Way

13%

Locomotiv e

32%

Marine 32%

Other Non

Road 23%

NOX Contribution PM Contribution

5

2.2

65

85.5

140

160

High Speed

Inter-City Rail

Light Rail/Metro

Car

Bus

Source: Alstom Transport, EcoTransIT, carbonneutralcalculator

g/pkm

g/pkm

g/pkm

g/pkm – grams per passenger kilometer

g/tkm- grams per ton kilometer

g/km

g/pkm

Pa

ss

en

ge

r

• Rail is the lowest contributor to Co2 emissions and hence the

huge government support.

• Though locomotives are substantially more efficient than

road vehicles in terms of per freight ton or passenger mile

moved, they still contribute to a major part of PM and NOX

emissions.

The North American Locomotive Market is Dominated by Diesel Freight Locomotives

Frieght

75%

21%

4%

Locomotive Market: Share by Segment (North America), 2010

Locomotive Market: Share by Fuel Type (North America), 2010

El ect r i c

Di esel

99.4%

0.6%

Freight is the biggest locomotive market

segment in North America and is

completely powered by diesel.

66M64A-18

SwitchersPassengerEl ect r i c

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

UP

BNS

F

CPR

CN

CSX

KCS

NS

Amtra

kFer

rom

ax

0

5

10

15

20

25

Locomotive Age

Locomotive Market: Average Fleet Age of Freight Locomotives Owned by Railroads (North America), 2010

17. 6

20. 9

10

20

30

Fr i eght Passenger

Locomotive Market: Locomotive Average Fleet Age by Passenger and Freight Segment (North America), 2010

Passenger locomotives are older as a

result of commuter railroads buying aged

fleet from freight railroads.

Ag

e

Ag

e

Largest fleet owners have relatively younger locomotive fleet.

Un

its o

wn

ed


New Locomotive Powertrain Requirement: About 5,600 New Powertrains is Expected to go into 4,513 New Locomotives

Locomotive Market: Total Locomotive Requirement (North America), 2010 and 2017

277

USA Canada Mexico

Total New Locomotive Powertrain Requirement by Country between 2010 and 2017

Line Haul Line Haul

Switcher 20.66%

0.63% Electric Passenger

3.67% Diesel passenger

31,987

Switcher 19.58%

Diesel passenger

4.86%

Electric Passenger 1.37%

36,500

Lo

co

mo

tiv

es P

ark

ed

Lo

co

mo

tiv

es P

ark

ed

7


230

1169

2472

47267

333

88157

131

44

2010 2017(1,000<hp<2,500) Switcher/Regional

Freight Application

(3,500<hp<4,500) Passenger

Diesel Application

(7,000<hp<8,000)Passenger

Electric Application

(3,500<hp<4,500)Line Haul Freight

Application

Line Haul Freight 75.03%

Line Haul Freight 74.20%

• Increased share of passenger locomotive fleet is a result of efforts to revive passenger rail transportation.

• The requirement of 536 new switcher locomotives is expected to create an opportunity for about 1,458

medium horsepower powertrains; this presents a good opportunity for non-road engine manufacturers.

CanadaMexico

Canada

Lo

co

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ark

ed

Lo

co

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ark

ed

Comparison of PM and NOX Reduction Analysis for Locomotives of Different Tiers

Locomotive Market: PM Vs NOX Emission Reduction Plan (North America) 2010 - 2017

0.3

0.4

Tier 2 - Line haul Tier 3 – Line haul by fine tuning in powertrain technology

Tier 4 - Line haul & Switcher by using exhaust after-treatment

PM

(g

/hp

-hr)

0.5 Tier 2 (VS) Tier 3 –

Reductions (%)

Tier 4 –

Reductions (%)

Line Haul 50% PM

0% NOX

85% PM

76% NOX

Switcher 23% PM

38% NOX

77% PM

84% NOX

Tier 3 (VS) Tier 4 – Reductions (%)

Line Haul & Passenger Locomotive Emission

Non Road Engine Emissions

8M64A-18

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0.1

0.2

8

Tier 2 - Switcher

Tier 3 – Switcher (non road powertrains)

9 10

NOX (g/hp-hr)

PM

(g

/hp

• Switcher locomotives have more stringent stage-by-stage emission cuts than line haul. There is 10 percent lower NOX

levels in tier 3 compared to line haul locomotives.

• Over 75 to 85 percent reduction in PM and NOX are required in the Tier 4 implementation period.Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

600<hp<=750 90% PM, 90% NOX

hp>750 85% PM, 90% NOX

2015 norms require NOX and PM emissions to reduce by 85 percent from present levels. Hence tier-2 compliant technologies, which are by itself advanced, need further improvisation in a span of 5 years.

Key Industry Challenges for Locomotive Systems

Market Challenges Only 2 Players catering to

Creation of Infrastructure for alternative fuels

The cost of creating an infrastructure for alternative fuels such as LNG, ethanol, or hydrogen has to be borne by the respective railroads. This substantially increases the overall cost of switching to alternative fuel locomotives.

Locomotive Market: Key Market Challenges (North America), 2010

Meeting EPA tier 4 emission norms

9

Market Challenges Only 2 Players catering to the largest segment for

locomotives in NA

Less R&D expenditure in Locomotive technology

• The rail industry in the United States can source locomotives only from OEMs and suppliers that have 80% localization. This restricts competition and increases the time to market new efficient locomotive technologies from other parts of the world.

A locomotive emission can be controlled by a variety of additional technologies during operation.

However, EPA considers only direct exhaust emissions from powertrains and not auxiliary technologies such as start stop, brake energy recovery, and so on that helps in emission reduction.

Source: Frost & Sullivan

EPA norms only account for powertrain

exhaust emissions

A Snapshot Diesel Powertrain Technologies in use and consideration for Emission Reduction and Energy Consumption

Loco Management

Systems

Advanced Ignition Systems

DPF + SCR

Efficient Power

PM + NOX reduction

techniques for 2015

EPA Tier IV standards

Clean engines using

Common rail injection +

turbo charging

technique - enables

engine downsizing

Reduce idling –

control emissions

Microprocessor enables

software technologies for

performance and fuel

efficiency improvement – LFO,

LEADER, GE’s trip Optimizer)After Cooler

Systems

Advanced systems to manage

engine output and lubrication

consumption

Locomotive Market: Diesel Powertrain Technologies in Use and Consideration for Emission Reduction (North America), 2010

10M64A-18

DDHS/ HEP

Exhaust Gas Recirculation

AESS

Use of highly efficient smaller engines to charge

battery banks that power the locomotives

Energy On Demand &

Auxiliary power

Brake Energy Recovery

Less Polluting Fuels such as LNG

Separate efficient gensets

to power the railcars and

the cabin

Efficient Power

Boost Technique

Battery Banks


Alternative Fuels

Freight Locomotive Powertrain Technology Trends

Locomotive Market: Freight Locomotive Technology Trends (North America), 2010-2017

Technology AC traction motors

Engine downsizing and

turbo-charging; use of

genset engines

High-pressure common rail injection

system to become standard

1111M64A-18


Technology

TrendsAC traction motors

preferred

Battery powered hybrid

options are on testing

grounds

Exhaust after-treatment to

be fitted in all modern

locomotives

Electric and Dual Mode

locomotives shall gain

popularity

758

1087

800

1000

1200

80%

100%

120%

Commonrail, VGT to become a standard feature in locomotives by 2015.

572

758

1087

800

1000

1200

80%

100%

120%

Locomotive Market: Penetration Forecast Of Powertrain Technologies (North America), 2010-2017

Nu

mb

er

of

Lo

co

mo

tiv

e U

nit

s%

Pen

etra

tion

•Common rail injection systems shall have the quickest and highest penetration in powertrain

technologies of future locomotives.

•SCR usage will be kept as a last option but shall be adopted by 99% of high hp line haul

(3,500<hp<4,500) and by about 30% of medium hp locomotive powertrains (1,000<hp<2,500)

Key Observations

% P

en

etra

tion

Nu

mb

er

of

Lo

co

mo

tiv

e U

nit

s

12M64A-18

377430

474443 452

572

0

200

400

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

Diesel Locomotives EGR DPF with DOC SCR

377430

474443 452

572

0

200

400

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

Diesel Locomotives Common Rail

Miller Valve Timing VGT

FGT Advanced Air Cooling

Nu

mb

er

of

Lo

co

mo

tiv

e U

nit

s%

Pen

etra

tion


% P

en

etra

tion

Nu

mb

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of

Lo

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tiv

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nit

s

Analysis: Powertrain Technologies and Their Implication on Emission Reduction – A Tier Based Model Forecast on NOX Reduction

7.4

5.5

5

6

7

8

2005

g/b

hp

.hr

Pre 2005 2012: Tier 3 for locomotive emissions to become effective

Tier 3 does not require change in NOX levels. However, use of common-rail injection by 2012 is expected to lower NOX levels to 3.3 g/bhp.hr.

• Common-rail injection, EGR and SCR are the primary technologies expected to be used by locomotive manufacturers to control NOX emissions from current tier 2 (5.5 g/bhp.hr) to tier 4 ( 1.3 g/bhp.hr) levels.

2015: Tier 4 for locomotive emissions to become effective.

• Tier 4 NOX level of 1.3 g/bhp.hr is required.• EGR helps bring NOX down from 3.3 g/bhp.hr to

Locomotive Market: NOX Reduction by Technology Use for Powertrain Class 3,500<hp<4,500 Locomotives (North America), 2010-2015

13M64A-18

3.3 3.3

2.1

0.6

0

1

2

3

4

Electronic Pump

Injection

Turbo-charging &

Advanced Air

Cooler

Common Rail

Injection

DPF w ith DOC EGR SCR

2012 2015

2015

2015

g/b

hp

.hr • EGR helps bring NOX down from 3.3 g/bhp.hr to

2.1g/bhp.hr.• Further reduction to meet compliance is to be

done using SCR – takes NOX to 0.6 g/bhp.hr

Note: All figures are rounded; the

base year is 2010. Source: Frost &

Sullivan

Performance Benchmarking of Idle Reduction Technologies

Fuel Saving & Emission

Reduction PotentialSegment compatibility Functional Limitation

DDHS/HEP Low High

1 52 3 4

LowHigh

1 52 3 4

Low High 14.5

AESS Low High

1 52 3 4

LowHigh

1 52 3 4

Low High 12.5

Electrical Shore Power Low High

1 52 3 4

LowHigh

1 52 3 4

Low High 6

Total 15 Points

Locomotive Market: Idle Reduction Technology Effectiveness – An Analysis (North America), 2010

1 52 3 4

1 52 3 4

1 52 3 4

14M64A-18

Full hybrid (battery powered)

Low High

1 52 3 4LowHigh

1 52 3 4

Low High12.0

1 52 3 4

Segment compatibility

Functional Limitation

• The possibility to use the technology is all locomotive segments

– line haul, switcher and passenger

• Higher the compatibility, higher the score

• The Potential of the technology to function in required services

in all environmental conditions such as extremely cold/hot

weather and when needed.

• Higher the limitation, lower the score and vice versa.

Low HighKey :

Measurement criteria & Definitions • DDHS/HEP score more than AESS as

an effective idle reduction technology.

• However, taking cost and most

prevalent weather conditions into

consideration, EPA has only mandated

AESS for locomotives from 2011.

• HEP is mandatory in passenger

locomotives

• About 70 percent adoption of DDHS

in freight locomotives.

Key ObservationsSource: Frost & Sullivan


1400

Hybrid Powertrain – Brake Energy Recovery and Battery Powered Locomotives

Hybrid locomotives have an alternative power source working in conjunction with or independent of a conventional diesel

engine to power the locomotive’s traction motor. The alternative power source is typically a series of batteries that is charged

either by braking or a small diesel engine.

Types of Hybrids Micro Hybrid Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid

Only Regenerative braking

for auxiliary power support

Regenerative braking + battery

power for acceleration support +

downsized diesel engine

Batteries as Prime Mover

Locomotive Market: Locomotive Powertrain Sales Forecast by Hybrid Technology Penetration (North America), 2010-2017

15M64A-18

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Line Haul Freight Switcher/RegionalMicro Hybrid Swithcer/Regional Locomotives Diesel Passenger

Micro Hybrid Diesel Passenger Micro Hybrid Electric PassengerMild Hybrid Freight

Nu

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• Micro Hybrids to make maximum penetration in the passenger segment.

• All electric passenger locomotives shall feature micro-hybrid regenerative braking technology.

• Diesel passenger segment is expected to witness 40%-60% penetration of micro hybrid technology

between 2010 and 2017.


Technology Roadmap: Locomotive Engines will see Rapid Modernisation and Implementation of Technologies that Increase Efficiency and Reduce Emissions

Technology

Regenerative Braking

Dynamic Braking

Idle Reduction

Energy recoveryL

oc

om

oti

ve

S

ys

tem

sL

oc

om

oti

ve

En

gin

es

Automatic Start Stop Systems

Auxiliary Power Systems

Exhaust Gas Utilization Intercoolers and Turbochargers

Exhaust After Treatment Diesel Oxidation Catalyst and Diesel Particulate Filters

Selective Catalytic Reduction

Advanced Air to Air Coolers + Cooled EGR with Variable Geometry Turbine

Electric Shore Power

Locomotive Market: Technology Roadmap (North America), 2010

16


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Lo

co

mo

tive

En

gin

es

Alt

ern

ate

Fu

els

Utilization

Fuel Injection and

Advanced Combustion

Common Rail Injection and Miller Valve Timing

Electronic Fuel Injection

HCCI Powertrains

Geometry Turbine

Sodium Halide Mild Hybrid (Battery + Diesel Engine)Lead Acid Batteries

Li-ion Battery Based Hybrid and Hydrogen Fuel Cell LocomotivesBattery

Hybrid

Alternative Fuel

Fuel Modifications

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Locomotives

Ethanol Fuel Locomotives

Normal Diesel Fuel Clan Diesel Fuel With Sulphur < 15ppm

Diesel + a maximum of 20% BioDiesel Fuel

Key Conclusions

Emission regulators

such as EPA are the

primary driving force for

change in locomotive

powertrain technology.

Conclusions

Emission challenges

have fueled competition

from non-road engine

Locomotive OEMs must inculcate continuous innovation as way forward to sustainability and market leadership.

Non-road powertrain suppliers must intensify competition by developing

higher horsepower engines to cater to

Locomotive Market: Key Conclusions (North America), 2010

1717M64A-18

Fuel cell, ethanol or electric locomotives to have little impact unless robust supply chain infrastructure is built with

federal support.


Emissions apply only to

diesel fuel locomotives

and powertrains > 1,020

hp.

from non-road engine

suppliers in the diesel

freight locomotive

segment.

higher horsepower engines to cater to line haul freight.

Line haul locomotive OEMs can consider partnering with leading non-road engine suppliers to strengthen

powertrain technology offerings.

OEMs must take advantage by developing and quickly

commercialising battery-powered hybrids and ethanol fuel locomotives.

Strong industry lobbying by railroads and OEMs could make governments consider the ecological benefits of

providing new infrastructure.

Growth Opportunities in Smart Mobility Business Models, Infrastructure and eService Platforms

15 June 2011 - Lords Terrace, House of Lords, Westminster, London, 16 June 2011 - Institute of Directors, 116 Pall Mall, Westminster, London

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Highlights of the event include:• Panel debate at the House of Lords followed by a motion on whether the mega-cities of the future and personal transport solutions will be as sustainable as public transport. This panel

Speakers include:- Jan Cupal, Senior Technology Manager, Verbund- Dr. Bernhard Blättel, Director Project Mobility Services, BMW AG

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18

will include a unique mix of parliamentarians, industry and academic experts.

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For more information about Urban Mobility 3.0, or for a full agenda, visit: http://www.gil-global.com/urbanmobility. Alternatively, contact Cyril Cromier on

[email protected] or dial: +33 1 42 81 22 44

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