ets: examining the demographics, education, skills and ... · •the college board goal ›by 2025,...

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ETS: Examining the

Demographics,

Education, Skills and

Workforce Readiness of

Adults

March 3, 2010

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President Obama

Lumina Foundation

Others

Gates Foundation

Convergence of Goals

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Convergence of Goals• Gates Foundation Goal

› Double number of low-income adults who earn a college degree by age 26

• Lumina Foundation Goal› By 2025, increase to 60% Americans with “high quality” degrees

and credentials

• The College Board Goal› By 2025, increase to 55% young Americans who complete school

with a community college degree or higher

• National Governors Association and Council of Chief State School Officers› Developing Common Core Standards for K-12 to align skills and

knowledge of graduating seniors with college readiness

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New National Leadership

“…this country needs and values the talents of every American. That is why we will provide the support necessary for you to complete college and meet a new goal: by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.”

- President Barack Obama

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Clear Social

Justice Issue

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SOCIAL JUSTICE

National

Personal

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4.2%

6.4%

8.3%

9.6%

15.1%

Less Than High

School

High School Some College/No

Degree

Associate Bachelor's Degree

or higher

2009 Unemployment Rate by Education (age 25 and older)

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2008 Median Annual Earnings by Education (age 25 and older)

$22,200

$30,732

$38,272

$50,856

$63,856

$79,144 $80,860

Less Than

High School

High School Associate Bachelor's

Degree

Masters Professional Doctorate

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Degree Attainment by SAT Scores

and Socioeconomic Status

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College Participation by

Socioeconomic Status

LOWEST HIGHEST

HIGHEST 78% 97%

LOWEST 36% 77%

SES QUARTILE

College Participation by Achievement Test

and Socioeconomic Status Quartile

ACHIEVEMENT

QUARTILE

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63% of all jobs will require some

post-secondary education, 2018

Labor force

in 2018,

154 Million

High

School

Dropout

10%

Associate’s

Degree 12%

Graduate

Degree

10%

Some College

15%

Bachelor’s Degree

23%High

School

Graduate

27%

Source: March CPS data, Center on Education and

the Workforce forecasts of education demand to

2018

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Key challenge for

postsecondary education -

defining “adults” and

identifying characteristics

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National Center for Education Statistics -

Selected Characteristics of Independent and

Dependent Students 1999-2000

Independent Dependent

Work 35 or more per week 58% 22%

Delayed enrollment 67% 24%

No high school diploma 12% 3%

Attend part-time 80% 42%

Have Children 53% 0%

Single parent 24% 0%

White 64% 71%

Black 15% 9%

First generation college 50% 27%

Women 59% 53%

NCES; Wei et al, 2005 Table 2a

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Non-Traditional Students

Grouped by NCES

• Minimally nontraditional

› One characteristic

• Moderately nontraditional

› Two or three characteristics

• Highly nontraditional

› Four or more characteristics

Majority of all undergraduates are

at least minimally nontraditional

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“In 2006, if all students who were

either older than 24 or were enrolled

part-time are considered

“nontraditional,” more than half of all

undergraduates fell into this

category.”

Lucie Lapovsky, Rethinking Student Aid: Nontraditional Students, 2009

IMPLICATIONS

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Low graduation rates for students who enter college

with one or more of the nontraditional characteristics prove that access to higher

education is not a guarantee of success.


ACCESS IS NOT SUFFICIENT

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For these students,

financial resources

are key.

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Meeting the Challenge

• Fund differently

› Program of universal accounts

› Lifelong learning accounts

› Provide funds that can be used for education

or other major investment


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Good Financial Aid Policies

• Should make it possible for older

adults to participate in postsecondary

education

• Full-time basis

• Will not incentivize younger students

to hold off on attending college


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Employers also positively

impact enrollment of older

students by subsidizing

tuition costs (45% in 2004-2005)


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Pell Grants positively

impact enrollment of

older students


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Students who attend more than half

time are eligible to receive Pell

awards that include some living costs

– those who attend less than part-

time, are only able to receive a

percentage of tuition and fees and are

ineligible for Stafford Loans…


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Gates Millennium Scholars

*Source: OECD (2008).

• Scholarships provide flexibility

• More choice for students

• Worked fewer hours

• More likely to enter a four-year public or

private institution

• Lead to higher levels of engagement

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Meeting the Challenge

•Getting educational opportunity information

to nontraditional students› Widely dispersed within the population

•KnowHow2Go Campaign› Multimedia campaign aimed at increasing college

enrollments of low-income and first generation students

› Lumina Foundation

› American Council on Education

› Ad Council


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What about adults

not in the

postsecondary

system?

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Key Trends

*Source: OECD (2008).

America is the number one country in

educational attainment of older adults

(aged 55 to 64) but drops to 10th

for younger adults (aged 25 to 34)*

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Today more than 36

million Americans lack a

high school credential

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Every year 1.3 million

U.S. students drop out of

high school

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10.5 million of these

Americans are ages

18 - 34

These adults are marginalized and denied

access to higher education and family-

supporting jobs

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Degree Attainment and Population

Change (25 to 34)

Estimated increase in

population by 2020

15%

8%

23%

30%

Ethnicity

Asian

White

Black

Hispanic

* Those with the highest expected growth continue to face

significant socio-economic challenges and currently have

the lowest levels of degree attainment

Percentage with college

degrees, 2007

73%

47%

28%

20%

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Optimistic Scenario

12.6%37%

37%

If 60% of U.S. citizens with “some

college” earn a degree

2007

20202020 Estimated Total:

49.6%

Percentage of Young Adults (25-34) with a College Degree

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Optimistic Scenario: Estimated 2020

Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34)

Even with a very optimistic 2020 U.S. estimate,

top OECD countries will lead the U.S. by 10.4 percent

51.4%No Degree

49.6%With Degree

U.S. Degree Attainment

60%With Degree

40%No Degree

Top OECD Degree Attainment

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We are losing

ground every

day.

Bottom Line

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We Can’t Get There From Here

- Unless -

We extend the pipeline and

provide access and more support

to individuals without high school

credentials

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Where ACE fits

• A top strategic

priority

› GED Tests are central to

ACE’s mission and

commitment to access and

success in higher

education

› GED credential is a key

link between K-12,

postsecondary education,

and world of work

Higher Ed, other Postsecondary Ed,

Work Requirements

Varying K-12 Standards and

Graduation Requirements

GAP

College Prep. Cert. &

Credential

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GED Today

• State and local issues limit space and

access

• Paper and pencil test limits reach

• Only 778,000 test takers and 493,000

credential recipients each year

A bolder approach is necessary

to address the nation’s critical needs

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0

20

40

60

80

100%

Foreign-bornstatus dropouts

US-bornstatus dropouts

15M

Home-schooled

GED Target Adult Population

Potential GED candidate population

Homeschooled (~0.24M)-Includes homeschoolers between the ages of ~16-18 (equivalent of grades 11-12)

US-born adults without a high school diploma or equivalent (~10M)

-Includes adults between the ages of 18-44 who have not attained a high school or equivalent credential

Foreign-born adults without a high school diploma or equivalent (~5M)

-Includes immigrants between the ages of 18-44 who have not received a high school or equivalent credential, regardless of whether or not they were naturalized as citizens or participated in the US school system

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GED Adult Target Population – Proficiency Levels

• We have reasonably good estimates of when dropouts

leave school and how far behind they are when they leave

• It appears that ~80% of GED candidate pool may currently have an academic

proficiency below 8th grade

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Percent of populationby grade level proficiency

Adults without HS diploma orequivalent credential

9-10th grade

6-8th grade

5th grade orless

11-12th grade

Less than 2% of the pool (11th to 12th grade) are close to the college-ready threshold

Another ~15% of the pool (9th to 10th grade) could reach college-readiness level by investing time and having access to current accelerated learning programs

The next 40% (6th to 8th grade) could reach college-readiness level by investing significant time and having access to current accelerated learning programs

For the remainder, achieving a 12th grade level of proficiency will be a more significant lift

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GED 20/20 seeks to address the

proficiency gap

College- and Career-ready

proficiency level(target grade

level proficiency)

=

Time investment

for preparation(total prep

time)

X

Multiplier for accelerating proficiency (grade level

gain within total prep time)

Target proficiencyProjected proficiency

Starting proficiency level(current grade

level proficiency)

+

40

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Did not completehigh school

Basic

Belowbasic

Extremelybelowbasic

Percent of students byachievement level

Proficient &advanced

Alex11-12th grade

proficiency

Bobby9th-10th grade

proficiency

Chris6th-8th grade proficiency

Dani5th grade or

below proficiency

•Low (0-6 months of

preparation)

•Medium (6 months to

1.5 years of

preparation)

•High (1.5-3 years of

preparation)

•Highest (3-6 years of

preparation)

Academic proficiencyPreparation necessary to reach a 12th grade proficiency standard

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0

20

40

60

80

100%

Did not completehigh school

Basic

Belowbasic

Extremelybelowbasic

Percent of students byachievement level

Proficient &advanced

Alex11-12th grade

proficiency

Bobby9th-10th grade

proficiency

Chris6th-8th grade proficiency

Dani5th grade or

below proficiency

• Self-directed instruction: Self-

preparation using workbooks or online

materials

• Blended instruction: Alternative

program with individually paced

curriculum, flexible schedule and

supplemental supports

• Classroom instruction: Classroom-

based model with flexible, intensive,

in-person, individualized instruction

with life skills support

• Basic adult education instruction:

Intensive, classroom-based adult

education courses as precursor to

GED prep described above

Academic proficiency Targeted accelerated program

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Where we’re headed…ACTION PLAN AT ACE

• GED 20/20 is a comprehensive, multi-year

initiative designed to dramatically scale up the

numbers of individuals who earn the GED credential

• Three key components:

› Development of a college- and career-ready GED test aligned with the common core national standards

› Development of a system of multi-platform, broadly accessible academic preparation programs

› Connections and transition services to postsecondary education (PSE) and career opportunities

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Pathways for adults to college/career-readiness, PSE success, and beyond

Attract LearnDemon-strate

Connect

Ongoing formative assessmen

t

Academically prepared

for PSE

Pathways to

instructional system

Attain

PSEattainmen

t and beyond

Pathways to PSE

Primary challenge

Differentiated instruction

Customized

curriculum

•Enroll in

PSE and

gain access

to family

supporting

careers

•Receive

information,

counseling,

or other

supports to

enroll in PSE

•Take

formative

assessment

to tailor

curriculum

and

instruction

•Access

broad array

of quality

instruction

tailored to

specific

needs

•Take

assessment

to diagnose

proficiency

•Reconnect to

programs that

provide

instructional

support to

achieve

proficiency

gains

•Take and

pass

GEDTS

20/20

exam

Diagnostic assessmen

t

•Receive

customized

curriculum

based on

current

proficiency

ACTION PLAN AT ACE

COORDINATED PATHWAYS

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Required Pathways, Policies, and

Partnerships

• The identification of promising approaches to accelerated

learning and investment strategies capable of catalyzing their

further development

• The development of partnerships or convening of a coalition

of progressive members of the GED ecosystem

• The identification of learning / demonstration pilots, leveraging

new partnerships and existing public funding streams, to support

the accelerated learning strategy and serve as a platform for the

advocacy agenda

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ADVOCACY AGENDA

• Access to public funding streams would enable

“instructional systems” to address the cost of

creating the “instructional system”

• The development of an advocacy agenda targeted at

federal / state policies that enable the future model (e.g.,

increasing eligibility of GED candidates to receive federal

and state funding for pathway programs)

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ADVOCAY AGENDACredit for Prior Learning

• The CREDIT program will increase its

efforts to provide accelerated pathways

to postsecondary credentials for adult

learners through sound academic

evaluations of extra-institutional

learning.

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ADVOCACY AGENDAFinancial Support for high School Dropouts

• Funds to offer programs

• Incentive for students

› Subsidy

› Funding for student computers

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ADDITIONAL POLICY AND

RESEARCH IMPLICATIONS• Coordination of best practices for adult ed/GED

vs.Localized programming

• Reporting system based on learningvs.Reporting system based on seat-time

• The cost of new “instructional systems,” vs. The ability to pay for these costs

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New National Leadership

“…this country needs and values the talents of every American. That is why we will provide the support necessary for you to complete college and meet a new goal: by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.”

- President Barack Obama

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QUESTIONS

ets: examining the demographics, education, skills and ... · •the college board goal ›by 2025,...

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