Estimating regional Estimating regional sources and sinks of sources and sinks of

COCO22 for North for North AmericaAmerica

Using NOAA-CMDL measurements and Using NOAA-CMDL measurements and the TM5 modelthe TM5 model

Wouter Peters, NOAA CMDLTRANSCOM May 13th, 2003

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Maarten KrolPieter Tans

Lori BruhwilerSander HouwelingPeter Bergamaschi

Peter van VelthovenFrank Dentener

Jan Fokke MeirinkJohn Miller

OutlineOutline

My backgroundMy background The TM5 global & regional modelThe TM5 global & regional model The expanded NOAA-CMDL networkThe expanded NOAA-CMDL network Plans for inversionsPlans for inversions

Kalman filterKalman filter 4d-var 4d-var

My backgroundMy background

Master’s in meteorology and physical Master’s in meteorology and physical oceanography from University of oceanography from University of UtrechtUtrecht

Thesis work on LBA-CLAIRE, Thesis work on LBA-CLAIRE, airborne campaign in Suriname, airborne campaign in Suriname, South America.South America.

PhD on tropospheric ozone in the PhD on tropospheric ozone in the tropics with Jos Lelieveld and tropics with Jos Lelieveld and Maarten Krol.Maarten Krol.

TM3 global modelTM3 global model 5x3.75 degrees, 19 layers5x3.75 degrees, 19 layers ECMWF meteorology (1979-1993, and ECMWF meteorology (1979-1993, and

1994-1999)1994-1999) Full chemistry (O3-NOx-CO-CH4, lumped Full chemistry (O3-NOx-CO-CH4, lumped

NMHC’s) + coupled photolysisNMHC’s) + coupled photolysis Extensive budgets of all processesExtensive budgets of all processes Fast parallel version (<2 CPU hrs/yr) Fast parallel version (<2 CPU hrs/yr)

allowing multi-year simulations or allowing multi-year simulations or sensitivity testssensitivity tests

TM5: the next generationTM5: the next generation

New advection algorithm (New advection algorithm (Berkvens, Berkvens, Botchev, Krol, Verwer, 2001Botchev, Krol, Verwer, 2001) allows ) allows online nesting of fine-scaled grids within online nesting of fine-scaled grids within a global domain.a global domain.

TM5 model – coarse gridTM5 model – coarse grid

TM5 model – medium gridTM5 model – medium grid

TM5 model – fine gridTM5 model – fine grid

TM5 model – vertical resolutionTM5 model – vertical resolutionp [hPa] h [km]

0.0 inf1.0 48.23.0 39.37.1 33.316.8 27.639.6 22.160.2 19.187.7 16.9

122.6 14.8165.1 13.0215.0 11.3272.1 9.8336.0 8.4406.1 7.1480.8 5.9558.0 4.8635.3 3.8710.3 2.9780.3 2.1843.3 1.5897.1 1.0940.6 0.62973.0 0.34994.7 0.161007.3 0.051013.3 0.00

values for US standard atmosphere

~ 5 layers PBL

~ 12 layers free troposphere

~ 8 layers stratosphere

25 vertical layers

Hybrid coordinates

TM5TM5

Contributions from IMAU, KNMI, JRC, Contributions from IMAU, KNMI, JRC, and in the near future NOAA.and in the near future NOAA.

Most important improvements: Most important improvements: meteorological input, coding, meteorological input, coding, chemical boundary conditions.chemical boundary conditions.

Special emphasis: ERA40=> re-Special emphasis: ERA40=> re-analysis of ECMWF for 1957-2001.analysis of ECMWF for 1957-2001.

Resolution up to ECMWF operationalResolution up to ECMWF operational

TM5 – latest TM5 – latest developments-developments-

Adjoint version of TM5 under con Adjoint version of TM5 under con structionstruction

4d-var scheme from ECMWF 4d-var scheme from ECMWF implemented and workingimplemented and working

Kalman filter (Baker, Bruhwiler, Kalman filter (Baker, Bruhwiler, Tans) to be implementedTans) to be implemented

222Rn simulations at different resolutionsCourtesy: H. SartoriusIAR-Freiburg

My plansMy plans

Forward modeling of COForward modeling of CO22 + isotopes, + isotopes, SFSF66

Inverse modeling of COInverse modeling of CO2 2 + isotopes+ isotopes Regional scale sources/sinks over the Regional scale sources/sinks over the

USUS Using vertical profile/ tall tower dataUsing vertical profile/ tall tower data Possibly assist in planning and Possibly assist in planning and

optimizing network design/sampling optimizing network design/sampling strategiesstrategies

NOAA CMDL goalsNOAA CMDL goals

??????

Current networkCurrent network

2005 network ?2005 network ?

2010 network ??2010 network ??

Proposed TM5 gridProposed TM5 grid

Proposed TM5 gridProposed TM5 grid

Aspen

Denver

Pueblo

Durango

GrandJunction

Regions for inversionRegions for inversion

Fixed-lag Kalman Fixed-lag Kalman smoothersmoother

‘‘Batch’ inversion technique using Batch’ inversion technique using nn-months -months of information at a time (3 < of information at a time (3 < nn < 9) < 9)

Calculates new fluxes and error estimates Calculates new fluxes and error estimates for for xxJ=0 (where x= fluxes and J = cost J=0 (where x= fluxes and J = cost function)function)

Balances prior flux estimates against new Balances prior flux estimates against new information from observations using prior information from observations using prior flux and model-data mismatchflux and model-data mismatch

Computationally efficient for multi-decadal Computationally efficient for multi-decadal inversionsinversions

Details: David Baker’s talk tomorrowDetails: David Baker’s talk tomorrow

4d-var4d-var

o Uses steepest descend and the Uses steepest descend and the calculated value of calculated value of xxJ to minimize JJ to minimize J

o value of value of xxJ calculated by adjoint J calculated by adjoint modelmodel

o Iterative scheme to converge to Iterative scheme to converge to xxJ J = 0= 0

o Useful for short time periods and Useful for short time periods and many observationsmany observations

Seasonal COSeasonal CO22 Flux Flux EstimatesEstimates

Gt/

yrG

t/yr

Ocean

Land

NCEP (1984-2000)ECMWF (1981-1993)

PRIOR

Annual Average Flux EstimatesAnnual Average Flux Estimates

Ocean

Land

NCEP (1984-2000)ECMWF (1981-1992)

PRIOR

Annual Average Flux Estimates with Annual Average Flux Estimates with Cyclic MeteorologyCyclic Meteorology

Ocean

Land

NCEP (1984-2000)NCEP (1990)

PRIOR

Interface Zoom

Interface:Mixture between‘fine’ and‘coarse’:

=

+

Interface Zoom

XYZV

Write BC

xyzv

vzyx

Update parent

VZYX

vzyx

xyzv