equity market outlook - aditya birla sun life insurance... · equity market outlook ... the...

15
Key Indices 30-Apr-12 31-Mar-12 % Change Nifty 5248.15 5295.55 -0.90% Sensex 17318.81 17404.20 -0.49% BSE 100 9083.47 9164.06 -0.88% Dow Jones 13213.63 13212.04 0.01% Nikkei 9520.89 10083.56 -5.58% Hang Seng 21094.21 20555.58 2.62% Nasdaq 3046.36 3091.57 -1.46% KOSPI 1981.99 2014.04 -1.59% Equity Market Outlook Indian equities went through another consolidation phase in April 2012, with the index ending marginally lower by 0.5%. Lingering uncertainties on the GAAR front, a renewed weakness in US data, the resurfacing of European problems and associated weakness in INR weighed on market sentiments. Consequently, Indian equities posted their second consecutive month of decline as foreign investors stayed away. Perhaps one of most worrying factors was the steep decline in market volumes - cash volumes averaged $2.4bn in Apr v/s an average of $3.3bn from Jan-Mar 2012. The much awaited RBI rate cut also failed to lift sentiments, despite coming in higher than expected at 50bps. April also saw a lot of activity related to new regulatory proposals that only added to market volatility. The PNGRB proposed a steep cut in pipeline tariff rates, possibly with retrospective effect. The TRAI came out with recommendations for fresh 2G auctions and proposed a reserve price that would involve a large cash outgo leading to a uncertainty in spectrum allocation. The resulting perception, that there were inherent regulatory risks in the country, led to the FIIs turning into net sellers and paring their India investments by $115mn. However, their YTD buying still stands at an impressive $8.7bn. DIIs on the other hand, showed buying interest and bought $154mn worth of stock in April though on a YTD basis they have sold $4.3bn worth of stock. 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Sensex Nifty 54.00 56.00 Rs v/s USD 3500 4500 5500 FII MF Amongst all these gloom there have also been a few positives for the market. There have been significant reforms in the power sector, with most state governments increasing electricity tariffs significantly, reducing the overhang of ballooning losses of the state electricity boards (SEBs). In FY13 so far, a dozen SEBs, accounting for more than 40% of the country’s power consumption, have revised tariffs upwards with an average increase of approx. 15%. Another positive side is that the 4QFY12 results season has been progressing as expected. Most banks have surprised positively on asset quality front. Our FY13 Sensex EPS estimates have been largely stable as the earnings downgrade cycle is over. Taking into consideration a gradual economic recovery in the second half of the financial year, we expect earnings growth could of 14-15% in FY13. This should be supportive of an equity market rally in the next few months. The past two months have seen markets consolidate and specific sectors correct. Valuations WPI inflation for March came in at 6.89% against 6.95% in Feb despite a powerful base effect present in the month. The higher than expected WPI can be attributed to the rise in primary products inflation. What is comforting however is that core inflation has come down to 4.9%, which is closer to the RBI’s comfort level of 4%. Inspite of high inflation, tight liquidity and the slowing growth forced the RBI to begin its rate reversal cycle. RBI’s 50bps cut in the repo rate was higher than expected, but failed to cheer the market because of the hawkish statements issued by the RBI. This policy also saw the central bank release its FY13 guidance which has pegged the WPI at 6.5% and the growth at 7.3%. The rupee continued with its downward spiral for the second consecutive month and ended another 4% lower at Rs. 52.7 to the dollar. Worsening macros, increased foreign outflows, sovereign debt worries in Europe and the continued strength in the USD, all contributed to this decline. S&P, while keeping India’s sovereign rating unchanged revised its outlook for India to negative and started talks of a possible rating change for the country to the non-investment grade category due to policy paralysis. Industrial production as measured by IIP growth remains anemic with the IIP growth at 4.1% against the consensus estimates of 6.8%. The unexpected slowdown in IIP is because Consumer Goods growth turned negative as consumption slowed down. 42.00 44.00 46.00 48.00 50.00 52.00 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 (2500) (1500) (500) 500 1500 2500 3500 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 In US $ MN market rally in the next few months. The past two months have seen markets consolidate and specific sectors correct. Valuations have turned attractive again at 13xFY13e earnings. Attractive valuation, stable earnings and supportive government policy can provide the necessary ingredients to support a fundamentally sustainable rally.

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Page 1: Equity Market Outlook - Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance... · Equity Market Outlook ... The resulting perception, that there were inherent regulatory risks in the ... Learning Curve

Key Indices 30-Apr-12 31-Mar-12 % Change

Nifty 5248.15 5295.55 -0.90%

Sensex 17318.81 17404.20 -0.49%

BSE 100 9083.47 9164.06 -0.88%

Dow Jones 13213.63 13212.04 0.01%

Nikkei 9520.89 10083.56 -5.58%

Hang Seng 21094.21 20555.58 2.62%

Nasdaq 3046.36 3091.57 -1.46%

KOSPI 1981.99 2014.04 -1.59%

Equity Market Outlook

Indian equities went through another consolidation phase in April 2012, with the index ending marginally lower by 0.5%. Lingeringuncertainties on the GAAR front, a renewed weakness in US data, the resurfacing of European problems and associatedweakness in INR weighed on market sentiments. Consequently, Indian equities posted their second consecutive month of declineas foreign investors stayed away. Perhaps one of most worrying factors was the steep decline in market volumes - cash volumesaveraged $2.4bn in Apr v/s an average of $3.3bn from Jan-Mar 2012. The much awaited RBI rate cut also failed to liftsentiments, despite coming in higher than expected at 50bps. April also saw a lot of activity related to new regulatory proposalsthat only added to market volatility. The PNGRB proposed a steep cut in pipeline tariff rates, possibly with retrospective effect.The TRAI came out with recommendations for fresh 2G auctions and proposed a reserve price that would involve a large cashoutgo leading to a uncertainty in spectrum allocation. The resulting perception, that there were inherent regulatory risks in thecountry, led to the FIIs turning into net sellers and paring their India investments by $115mn. However, their YTD buying stillstands at an impressive $8.7bn. DIIs on the other hand, showed buying interest and bought $154mn worth of stock in Aprilthough on a YTD basis they have sold $4.3bn worth of stock.

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

Sensex Nifty

54.00

56.00

Rs v/s USD

3500

4500

5500

FII MF

Amongst all these gloom there have also been a few positives for the market. There have been significant reforms in the powersector, with most state governments increasing electricity tariffs significantly, reducing the overhang of ballooning losses of thestate electricity boards (SEBs). In FY13 so far, a dozen SEBs, accounting for more than 40% of the country’s power consumption, have revised tariffs upwards with an average increase of approx. 15%. Another positive side is that the 4QFY12 results seasonhas been progressing as expected. Most banks have surprised positively on asset quality front. Our FY13 Sensex EPS estimateshave been largely stable as the earnings downgrade cycle is over. Taking into consideration a gradual economic recovery in thesecond half of the financial year, we expect earnings growth could of 14-15% in FY13. This should be supportive of an equitymarket rally in the next few months. The past two months have seen markets consolidate and specific sectors correct. Valuations

WPI inflation for March came in at 6.89% against 6.95% in Feb despite a powerful base effect present in the month. The higherthan expected WPI can be attributed to the rise in primary products inflation. What is comforting however is that core inflation hascome down to 4.9%, which is closer to the RBI’s comfort level of 4%. Inspite of high inflation, tight liquidity and the slowing growthforced the RBI to begin its rate reversal cycle. RBI’s 50bps cut in the repo rate was higher than expected, but failed to cheer themarket because of the hawkish statements issued by the RBI. This policy also saw the central bank release its FY13 guidancewhich has pegged the WPI at 6.5% and the growth at 7.3%. The rupee continued with its downward spiral for the secondconsecutive month and ended another 4% lower at Rs. 52.7 to the dollar. Worsening macros, increased foreign outflows,sovereign debt worries in Europe and the continued strength in the USD, all contributed to this decline. S&P, while keepingIndia’s sovereign rating unchanged revised its outlook for India to negative and started talks of a possible rating change for thecountry to the non-investment grade category due to policy paralysis. Industrial production as measured by IIP growth remainsanemic with the IIP growth at 4.1% against the consensus estimates of 6.8%. The unexpected slowdown in IIP is becauseConsumer Goods growth turned negative as consumption slowed down.

42.00

44.00

46.00

48.00

50.00

52.00

Mar

-11

Ap

r-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

No

v-1

1

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Ap

r-12

(2500)

(1500)

(500)

500

1500

2500

3500

Ap

r 11

May 1

1

Ju

ne 1

1

Ju

ly 1

1

Au

g 1

1

Sep

t 11

Oct

11

No

v 11

Dec 1

1

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Ap

r 12

In U

S $

MN

market rally in the next few months. The past two months have seen markets consolidate and specific sectors correct. Valuationshave turned attractive again at 13xFY13e earnings. Attractive valuation, stable earnings and supportive government policy canprovide the necessary ingredients to support a fundamentally sustainable rally.

Page 2: Equity Market Outlook - Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance... · Equity Market Outlook ... The resulting perception, that there were inherent regulatory risks in the ... Learning Curve

Key Indices 30-Apr-12 31-Mar-12 % Change

10 year G-Sec 8.67% 8.54% 1.50%

5 Year G-Sec 8.49% 8.60% -1.26%

91 Day T Bill 8.37% 8.93% -6.27%

364 day T-Bill 8.19% 8.38% -2.27%

MIBOR 9.33% 11.32% -17.58%

Call Rates 8.08% 9.50% -14.95%

Inflation 7.20% 6.95% 3.60%

India’s high current account deficit (CAD) is also a matter of concern. The current account deficit widened to 3.3% of GDP in the December

2011 quarter. Considering that India imports 80% of its oil requirement, rising oil prices are a big concern. The other area of concern is our

high fiscal deficit. The FY13 budget projects a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP but slowing revenues and rising expenditures suggest that this

Debt Market Outlook

The global economic momentum has stalled in the face of rising political and economic risks in Europe and a slow expansion in the US.

Macroeconomic concerns in Europe & USA and the consequent fiscal austerity measures undertaken by them has constrained them from

undertaking growth boosting stimulus measures. Asia continues to grow, with the emerging Asian countries like China and India showing

growth rates above normal and the advanced Asian economies like Japan and Australia showing moderate growth.

India’s domestic macro environment continues to be constrained by weak growth and slowdown in investments, a high fiscal deficit, clear

upside risks to inflation and lack of policy reforms. Headline WPI inflation is set to moderate in March led by a sharp fall in core inflation,

even as food inflation continues to rise. The depreciating rupee has been a major concern. The rupee will continue to be weak as the

widening of trade deficit is exerting pressure on it. The rupee depreciation coupled with higher international oil prices will keep inflation high

in the medium term.

25

50

75

100

125

150

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

10 Yr G-Sec yield 5 year AAA Corporate Bond Spread

bps

perc

enta

ge (%

)

The 10 year G-Sec should be in the range of 8.50/8.70% given the higher government bond issuances due to large borrowing program.

Corporate bonds yields will track G-sec yields with a spread of ~ 75 bps.

high fiscal deficit. The FY13 budget projects a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP but slowing revenues and rising expenditures suggest that this

may be difficult to achieve.

We expect the RBI to cut Repo rate by a further 50bps if there is a substantial drop in both headline and core inflation. Liquidity is expected

to remain tight and RBI will look to keep it in the range of negative one lac cr.

Worsening expectation on the macroeconomic front has led range bound market. Even the repo rate cut of 50bps by RBI in its April 16th

Annual Monetary review did not have any impact on the bond yields.

Page 3: Equity Market Outlook - Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance... · Equity Market Outlook ... The resulting perception, that there were inherent regulatory risks in the ... Learning Curve

Learning Curve

Understanding Risk Ratios Risk and return are the two faces of same coin - higher the expected return, higher the risk an individual has to take. Risk cannot be avoided, but it can be managed. Hence while judging the performance of an investment option it becomes essential to determine the element of risk attached to it. One can analyze the risk through various statistical tools and ratios. Standard Deviation quantifies the risk element of an investment. Ratios such as Beta and Sharpe help investors analyze the risk/return payoff of the portfolio. Standard Deviation The standard deviation essentially measures a fund's volatility, which indicates the tendency of the return to rise or fall drastically in a short period of time. A security that is volatile is also considered risky because its performance can change quickly in either direction, positively or negatively. The standard deviation of a fund measures this risk by measuring the degree to which the fund fluctuates in relation to its mean return - the average return of a fund over a period of time. This spread of possible outcome is usually measured by standard deviation. To determine how well a fund is maximizing the return received for its volatility, we compare the standard deviation of the fund to the standard deviation of another fund with similar investment strategy and asset allocation. For two funds with the same return, the fund with the lower standard deviation is a superior choice because it is maximizing the return received for the amount of risk acquired. The standard deviation tells us how much the return on the fund is deviating from the expected normal returns. A volatile portfolio would have a high standard deviation. As seen below standard deviation for BSLI Maximiser fund is 19.36% which is relatively low when compared to the other peers. Hence for the same allocation of assets BSLI Maximiser has given less volatility when compared to its peers.

Standard Deviation as on 30.04.2012 Maximiser Peer Highest Peer Lowest

Last 1 year 19.36% 23.25% 18.89%

BETA While standard deviation determines the volatility of a fund according to the disparity of its returns over a period of time, beta, another useful statistical measure, determines the volatility, or risk, of a fund in comparison to that of its index or benchmark. A fund with a beta very close to 1 means the fund's performance closely matches the index or benchmark. A beta greater than 1 indicates greater volatility than the overall market, and a beta less than 1 indicates less volatility than the benchmark. If, for example, a fund has a beta of 1.1 in relation to the benchmark index, the fund’s returns will be 1.1 times the benchmark index return and if a fund has a beta of 0.9, the return will be 0.9 times of the Benchmark Index return. Risk averse investors who want less volatility should invest in stocks or fund having beta less than 1 whereas investors who are willing to take higher risk should invest in high beta stocks or funds. As seen below Maximiser Fund with beta of 1.10 is comparatively low when compared to its peers. Hence it has been comparatively less affected by market fluctuations.

Beta as on 30.04.2012 Maximiser Peer Highest Peer Lowest

Last 1 year 1.10 1.22 1.08

Page 4: Equity Market Outlook - Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance... · Equity Market Outlook ... The resulting perception, that there were inherent regulatory risks in the ... Learning Curve

SHARPE Sharpe ratio measures risk-adjusted return of the portfolio. It is a direct measure to compare different funds with various strategies as their returns have been adjusted for its risks attached. It is calculated by subtracting the risk-free rate from the rate of return for a portfolio and dividing the result by the standard deviation of the portfolio returns. The Sharpe ratio tells us whether the returns of a portfolio are because of smart investment decisions or a result of excess risk. This measurement is very useful because although a fund can deliver returns higher than its peers, it is only a good investment if those higher returns do not come with too much additional risk. The greater a portfolio's Sharpe ratio, the better its risk-adjusted performance. As seen below, Maximiser Fund has a Sharp Ratio of -1.00 which is comparatively better than its peers. Negative value of Sharpe Ratio is because of the overall market performance.

Sharpe Ratio as on 30.04.2012 Maximiser Peer Highest Peer Lowest

Last 1 year -1.00 -0.85 -2.55

Arpita Nanoti

Head – Investment Communication & Advisory

Page 5: Equity Market Outlook - Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance... · Equity Market Outlook ... The resulting perception, that there were inherent regulatory risks in the ... Learning Curve

GROUP

Inception Date

Fund Return BM Fund Return BM Fund Return BM Fund Return BM

Last 1 year 4.02% 3.98% 1.62% 1.69% -1.17% -0.61% -1.62% -2.15%

Last 2 years 4.48% 3.96% 3.45% 2.99% 2.31% 1.98% 2.60% 1.27%

Last 3 years 8.14% 6.36% 10.01% 7.94% 12.58% 9.45% 14.79% 10.42%

Last 4 year 8.78% 4.68% 8.14% 4.04% 9.35% 3.25% 11.29% 2.64%

Last 5 years 9.99% 5.99% 9.44% 6.11% 12.29% 6.22% - -

Since Inception 10.89% - 14.00% - 15.60% - 12.34% -

Asset Held (Rs. In

Crores)

GROUP

Inception Date

Fund Return BM Fund Return BM Fund Return BM Fund Return BM Fund Return BM

Last 1 year 9.26% 7.38% 9.78% - 9.71% 6.98% 9.49% 7.38% 12.98% 6.98%

Last 2 years 8.48% 6.34% 7.93% - 8.04% 5.15% 8.02% 5.58% 9.19% 5.15%

Last 3 years 8.92% 4.89% 8.43% - 8.72% 4.14% 8.04% - - -

Last 4 year 10.49% 5.57% 11.47% - 12.73% 5.30% - - - -

Last 5 years 10.93% - 11.93% - 12.23% 5.44% - - - -

Since Inception 9.60% - 11.48% - 8.35% - 8.57% - 9.46% 5.39%

Asset Held (Rs. In

Crores)

Fund Name

16

221 163 65

19-Jun-01 31-Aug-01 31-Aug-01

Fixed Interest

109

30-Mar-05

Money Market

28-Jan-07

687 349 194

23-Mar-1010-Dec-0818-Nov-02

1

Income Advantage

FUND PERFORMANCE AS ON 30TH APRIL 2012

Secure Stable Growth Growth Advantage

18-Feb-08

Bond Short Term Debt

Benchmark Composition SFINFund Name

Secure BSE 100

Stable BSE 100

Growth BSE 100

Growth Advantage BSE 100

Money Market -

Income Advantage -

Fixed Interest -

Short Term Debt Fund -

Bond Fund -

Crisil Composite Bond Index

Crisil Short Term Bond Index

ULGF00416/07/02BSLGFIXINT109

ULGF01322/09/08BSLGSHTDBT109

-

Disclaimer:

This document is issued by BSLI. While all reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors of

fact or for any opinion expressed herein. This document is for information purposes only. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to

any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in NAVs. Past

performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it

is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Birla Sun Life Insurance Company Limited, nor any person

connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any

matter contained herein.

Benchmark Composition

Crisil Composite Bond Index

Crisil Composite Bond Index

Crisil Composite Bond Index

Crisil Composite Bond Index

Crisil Liquid Fund Index

Crisil Composite Bond Index ULGF01425/02/10BSLGINCADV109

ULGF00530/05/03BSLIGRBOND109

ULGF00212/06/01BSLGSECURE109

SFIN

ULGF00312/06/01BSLGSTABLE109

ULGF00112/06/01BSLGGROWTH109

ULGF01026/11/07BSLIGGRADV109

ULGF00824/08/04BSLIGRMMKT109

Page 6: Equity Market Outlook - Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance... · Equity Market Outlook ... The resulting perception, that there were inherent regulatory risks in the ... Learning Curve

SECURITIES HOLDING

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 23.72%

7.8% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 3.53%

8.2% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 2.77%

8.79% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 2.75%

8.13% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 2.18%

8.26% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2027 2.03%

8.28% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2032 1.38%

6.35% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2020 0.95%

8.08% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 0.84%

12.3% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2016 0.83%

6.05% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2019 0.82%

OTHER GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 5.65%

CORPORATE DEBT 32.97%

8.9% STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LTD. 2019 2.77%

9.15% LARSEN AND TOUBRO LTD. 2019 2.47%

11.45% RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. 2013 1.64%

10.9% RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPN. LTD. 2013 1.51%

11.5% RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPN. LTD. 2013 1.16%

9.05% RALLIS INDIA LTD. 2013 1.11%

10.25% TECH MAHINDRA LTD. 2014 1.03%

9.5% NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRI. AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 20120.93%

10.48% SUNDARAM FINANCE LTD. 2013 0.91%

8.64% POWER GRID CORPN. OF INDIA LTD. 2015 0.89%

OTHER CORPORATE DEBT 18.56%

EQUITY 19.63%

I C I C I BANK LTD. 1.36%

Asset Allocation

Secure Fund ULGF00212/06/01BSLGSECURE109 Portfolio as on 30th April 2012

Rating Profile

About the FundObjective: To build capital and generate better returns at moderate level of risk, over amedium or long-term period through a balance of investment in equity and debt.

Strategy: Generate better returns with moderate risk level through fixed income portfolioand focus on creating long term equity portfolio which will enhance yield of compositeportfolio with low level of risk appetite.

AA-2.65%

AA3.76%

AA+6.06%

AAA

MMI23.68%

G-Secs23.72%Equities

19.63%

NCD32.97%

I C I C I BANK LTD. 1.36%

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. 1.31%

I T C LTD. 1.20%

INFOSYS LTD. 1.16%

STATE BANK OF INDIA 0.85%

H D F C BANK LTD. 0.80%

HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 0.79%

LARSEN AND TOUBRO LTD. 0.76%

BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. 0.75%

TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD. 0.65%

OTHER EQUITY 10.00%

MMI 23.68%

Maturity Profile

Sectoral Allocation

1.59%

2.61%

3.79%

3.82%

5.79%

5.91%

5.92%

6.00%

8.26%

10.33%

10.75%

11.21%

22.61%

OTHERS

DIVERSIFIED

POWER GENERATION AND SUPPLY

TELECOMMUNICATION

CAPITAL GOODS

AUTOMOBILE

PHARMACEUTICALS

METAL

FINANCIAL SERVICES

FMCG

SOFTWARE / IT

OIL AND GAS

BANKING

48.70%

14.97%

36.32%

6.06%P1+/A1+11.78%

Sovereign36.91%

AAA38.83%

Apr-

04

Aug-0

4

Dec-0

4

Apr-

05

Aug-0

5

Dec-0

5

Apr-

06

Aug-0

6

Dec-0

6

Apr-

07

Aug-0

7

Dec-0

7

Apr-

08

Aug-0

8

Dec-0

8

Apr-

09

Aug-0

9

Dec-0

9

Apr-

10

Aug-1

0

Dec-1

0

Apr-

11

Aug-1

1

Dec-1

1

Apr-

12

Secure BM

1.41%CEMENTLess than 2 years 2 to 7years 7years & above

Page 7: Equity Market Outlook - Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance... · Equity Market Outlook ... The resulting perception, that there were inherent regulatory risks in the ... Learning Curve

SECURITIES HOLDING

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 20.15%

7.8% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 3.73%

8.79% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 2.45%

8.28% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2032 2.36%

8.2% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 1.89%

8.08% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 1.72%

8.3% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2040 1.34%

7.59% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2015 1.21%

8.28% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2027 1.16%

7.5% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2034 1.12%

8.26% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2027 1.03%

OTHER GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 2.13%

CORPORATE DEBT 32.33%

8.65% RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPN. LTD. 2019 2.70%

9.45% RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPN. LTD. 2013 2.46%

9.5% NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRI. AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 20122.00%

8.7% POWER FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2020 1.65%

11.4% POWER FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2013 1.61%

10.1% POWER GRID CORPN. OF INDIA LTD. 2017 1.47%

9.4% NATIONAL HOUSING BANK 2013 1.43%

8.9% POWER FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2014 1.41%

8.55% TATA MOTORS FINANCE LTD. 2012 1.34%

12.65% CHOLAMANDALAM INVESTMENT AND FINANCE CO. LTD. 20141.33%

OTHER CORPORATE DEBT 14.93%

EQUITY 34.33%

Asset Allocation

Stable Fund ULGF00312/06/01BSLGSTABLE109Portfolio as on 30th April 2012

Rating Profile

About the FundObjective: To grow your capital through enhanced returns over a medium to longterm period through investments in equity and debt instruments, thereby providing agood balance between risk and return.

Strategy: To earn capital appreciation by maintaining diversified equity portfolio andseek to earn regular return on fixed income portfolio by active management resultingin wealth creation for policyholders.

AA+1.25%

A+1.94% AA-

MMI13.19%

G-Secs20.15%

Equities34.33%

NCD32.33%

I C I C I BANK LTD. 2.37%

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. 2.28%

I T C LTD. 2.10%

INFOSYS LTD. 2.04%

STATE BANK OF INDIA 1.49%

H D F C BANK LTD. 1.40%

HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 1.38%

LARSEN AND TOUBRO LTD. 1.34%

BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. 1.33%

TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD. 1.14%

OTHER EQUITY 17.46%

MMI 13.19%

Maturity Profile

Sectoral Allocation

1.65%

2.48%

3.77%

3.89%

5.66%

5.85%

6.03%

6.22%

7.92%

10.43%

10.83%

11.26%

22.59%

OTHERS

DIVERSIFIED

POWER GENERATION AND SUPPLY

TELECOMMUNICATION

CAPITAL GOODS

AUTOMOBILE

PHARMACEUTICALS

METAL

FINANCIAL SERVICES

FMCG

SOFTWARE / IT

OIL AND GAS

BANKING

46.23%

19.47%

34.30%

1.25% 1.94% AA-7.28%

P1+/A1+10.03%

Sovereign33.79%

AAA45.71%

Apr-

04

Aug-0

4

Dec-0

4

Apr-

05

Aug-0

5

Dec-0

5

Apr-

06

Aug-0

6

Dec-0

6

Apr-

07

Aug-0

7

Dec-0

7

Apr-

08

Aug-0

8

Dec-0

8

Apr-

09

Aug-0

9

Dec-0

9

Apr-

10

Aug-1

0

Dec-1

0

Apr-

11

Aug-1

1

Dec-1

1

Apr-

12

Stable BM

1.43%CEMENTLess than 2 years 2 to 7years 7years & above

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SECURITIES HOLDING

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 16.07%

7.8% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 4.23%

8.2% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 3.74%

8.79% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 2.34%

7.59% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2016 1.67%

6.9% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2019 1.45%

8.08% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 1.09%

8.3% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2040 0.85%

7.02% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2016 0.44%

9.15% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2024 0.27%

CORPORATE DEBT 21.18%

8.7% POWER FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2020 4.16%

8.48% L I C HOUSING FINANCE LTD. 2013 2.23%

5.9% H D F C BANK LTD. 2014 1.69%

8.95% POWER FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2015 1.42%

10.05% MARICO LTD. 2013 1.34%

9.4% NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRI. AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2014 1.34%

8.5% INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CO. LTD. 2012 1.33%

9.05% STATE BANK OF INDIA 2020 1.31%

8.2% ASHOK LEYLAND LTD. 2015 0.98%

9.76% INDIAN RAILWAY FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2012 0.93%

OTHER CORPORATE DEBT 4.44%

EQUITY 49.33%

I C I C I BANK LTD. 3.38%

Growth Fund ULGF00112/06/01BSLGGROWTH109

Portfolio as on 30th April 2012

Asset Allocation

Rating Profile

About the FundObjective: To achieve optimum balance between growth and stability to providelong-term capital appreciation with balanced level of risk by investing in fixed incomesecurities and high quality equity security.

Strategy: To ensure capital appreciation by simultaneously investing into fixedincome securities and maintaining diversified equity portfolio. Active fundmanagement is carried out to enhnce policyholder’s wealth in long run.

AA-2.31%

AA4.42%

P1+/A1+11.78%

AAA43.43%

G-Secs16.07%

MMI13.42%

NCD21.18%

Equities49.33%

I C I C I BANK LTD. 3.38%

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. 3.27%

I T C LTD. 3.00%

INFOSYS LTD. 2.92%

STATE BANK OF INDIA 2.14%

H D F C BANK LTD. 2.00%

HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 1.97%

LARSEN AND TOUBRO LTD. 1.91%

BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. 1.88%

TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD. 1.63%

OTHER EQUITY 25.24%

MMI 13.42%

Maturity Profile

Sectoral Allocation

1.42%

1.59%

2.65%

3.75%

3.81%

5.82%

5.97%

5.98%

6.08%

8.20%

10.32%

10.75%

11.21%

22.47%

CEMENT

OTHERS

DIVERSIFIED

POWER GENERATION AND SUPPLY

TELECOMMUNICATION

CAPITAL GOODS

PHARMACEUTICALS

AUTOMOBILE

METAL

FINANCIAL SERVICES

FMCG

SOFTWARE / IT

OIL AND GAS

BANKING

42.72%

16.40%

40.89%

Less than 2 years 2 to 7years 7years & above

Sovereign38.06%

Apr-

04

Aug-0

4

Dec-0

4

Apr-

05

Aug-0

5

Dec-0

5

Apr-

06

Aug-0

6

Dec-0

6

Apr-

07

Aug-0

7

Dec-0

7

Apr-

08

Aug-0

8

Dec-0

8

Apr-

09

Aug-0

9

Dec-0

9

Apr-

10

Aug-1

0

Dec-1

0

Apr-

11

Aug-1

1

Dec-1

1

Apr-

12

Gr. Growth BM

Less than 2 years 2 to 7years 7years & above

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SECURITIES HOLDING

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 14.03%

7.8% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 3.93%

8.79% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 3.23%

8.2% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 1.67%

7.49% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2017 1.53%

8.3% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2040 1.50%

7.59% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2016 0.63%

8.08% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 0.62%

7.46% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2017 0.61%

7.99% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2017 0.31%

CORPORATE DEBT 18.74%

11.5% RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPN. LTD. 2013 3.94%

10.9% RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPN. LTD. 2013 3.25%

6.1% NUCLEAR POWER CORPN. OF INDIA LTD. 2014 3.02%

9.47% POWER GRID CORPN. OF INDIA LTD. 2013 2.40%

2% INDIAN HOTELS CO. LTD. 2014 1.50%

7.75% RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPN. LTD. 2012 1.27%

8.7% POWER FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2020 1.23%

8.8% POWER GRID CORPN. OF INDIA LTD. 2019 0.77%

11.95% HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 20180.72%

10.48% ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD. 2013 0.65%

Rating Profile

Asset Allocation

Growth Advantage Fund ULGF01026/11/07BSLIGGRADV109Portfolio as on 30th April 2012 About the Fund

Objective: To provide blend of fixed return by investing in debt & moneymarket instruments and capital appreciation by predominantly investing inequities of fundamentally strong and large blue chip companies.Strategy: To build and actively manage a well-diversified equity portfolio ofvalue & growth driven stocks by following a research-focused investmentapproach. While appreciating the high risk associated with equities, the fundwould attempt to maximize the risk-return pay-off for the long-termadvantage of the policyholders. The non-equity portion of the fund will beinvested in high rated debt and money market instruments and fixeddeposits.

MMI8.10%

G-Secs14.03%

NCD18.74%

Equities59.14%

10.48% ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD. 2013 0.65%

EQUITY 59.14%

I C I C I BANK LTD. 4.03%

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. 3.92%

I T C LTD. 3.62%

INFOSYS LTD. 3.52%

STATE BANK OF INDIA 2.56%

H D F C BANK LTD. 2.40%

BHARTI AIRTEL LTD. 2.38%

LARSEN AND TOUBRO LTD. 2.37%

HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2.36%

TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD. 1.96%

OTHER EQUITY 30.01%

MMI 8.10%

Maturity Profile

Sectoral Allocation

53.84%

13.41%

32.75%

P1+/A1+2.35% AA+

4.47%

Sovereign41.81%

AAA51.37%

1.44%

1.64%

2.56%

3.77%

4.03%

5.76%

5.80%

5.83%

6.28%

7.85%

10.42%

10.86%

11.39%

22.38%

CEMENT

OTHERS

DIVERSIFIED

POWER GENERATION AND SUPPLY

TELECOMMUNICATION

PHARMACEUTICALS

CAPITAL GOODS

AUTOMOBILE

METAL

FINANCIAL SERVICES

FMCG

SOFTWARE / IT

OIL AND GAS

BANKING

Apr-08

Jun-0

8

Aug-0

8

Oct-08

Dec-0

8

Feb-0

9

Apr-09

Jun-0

9

Aug-0

9

Oct-09

Dec-0

9

Feb-1

0

Apr-10

Jun-1

0

Aug-1

0

Oct-10

Dec-1

0

Feb-1

1

Apr-11

Jun-1

1

Aug-1

1

Oct-11

Dec-1

1

Feb-1

2

Apr-12

Gr. Advantage BM

Less than 2 years 2 to 7years 7years & above

1.44%CEMENT

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SECURITIES HOLDING

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 0.00%

CORPORATE DEBT 0.00%

EQUITY 0.00%

MMI 100.00%

10.90% CANARA BANK FD QUARTERLY COMP (MD 14/03/2013)9.04%

10.51% BANK OF BARODA FD QUARTERLY COMP (MD 29/03/2013)6.78%

SHAPOORJI PALLONJI AND COMPANY LTD CP (MD 29/06/2012)6.67%

INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK CD ( MD 21/03/2013) 6.24%

ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE CD (MD 20/03/2013) 6.23%

BANK OF INDIA CD (MD 20/03/2013) 6.19%

VIJAYA BANK CD ( MD 26/03/2013) 6.08%

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CO. LTD. CP (MD 13/02/2013)5.44%

CHOLAMANDALAM INVST AND FINANCE CP (MD 15/10/2012)4.76%

10.90 PUNJAB AND NATIONAL BANK FD QTR (MD 20/03/13) 4.52%

OTHER MMI 38.06%

Money Market Fund ULGF00824/08/04BSLIGRMMKT109

Portfolio as on 30th April 2012

Asset Allocation

Rating Profile

About the FundObjective: To provide reasonable returns, at a high level of safety andliquidity for capital conservation for the Policyholder

Strategy: To make judicious investments in high quality debt and moneymarket instruments to protect capital of the Policyholder with very lowlevel of risk

MMI100.00%

A+9.57%

Maturity Profile

100.00%

Less than 1 year

P1+/A1+90.43%

Apr-

08

Jun-0

8

Aug-0

8

Oct-

08

Dec-0

8

Feb-0

9

Apr-

09

Jun-0

9

Aug-0

9

Oct-

09

Dec-0

9

Feb-1

0

Apr-

10

Jun-1

0

Aug-1

0

Oct-

10

Dec-1

0

Feb-1

1

Apr-

11

Jun-1

1

Aug-1

1

Oct-

11

Dec-1

1

Feb-1

2

Apr-

12

MM BM

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SECURITIES HOLDING

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 0.00%

CORPORATE DEBT 50.83%

7.73% BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPN. LTD. 2012 6.73%

9.87% TATA SONS LTD. 2017 6.28%

9.65% NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRI. AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 20144.77%

8% MAHINDRA VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS LIMITED 2015 4.67%

8.5% INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CO. LTD. 20124.29%

10.6499% CHOLAMANDALAM INVESTMENT AND FINANCE CO. LTD. 20133.94%

9.63% POWER FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2014 3.86%

9.72% INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CO. LTD. 20133.86%

7.35% HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORPN. LTD. 2012 3.35%

10.48% SUNDARAM FINANCE LTD. 2013 2.79%

OTHER CORPORATE DEBT 6.29%

SECURITISED DEBT 0.00%

MMI 49.17%

Asset Allocation

Rating Profile

Short Term Debt Fund ULGF01322/09/08BSLGSHTDBT109

Portfolio as on 30th April 2012 About the FundObjective: To provide capital preservation at a high level of safety &

liquidity through judicious investments in high quality short‐term debtinstruments

Strategy: To actively manage the fund by building a portfolio of fixedincome instruments with short term duration. The fund will invest ingovernment securities, high rated corporate bonds, good quality moneymarket instruments and other fixed income securities. The quality &duration of the assets purchased would aim to minimize the credit risk andliquidity risk of the portfolio. The fund will maintain reasonable level ofliquidity.

AA+

MMI49.17%

NCD50.83%

MMI 49.17%

Maturity Profile

80.07%

19.93%

Less than 2 years 2 to 7years

AA+6.07% AA

10.25%

P1+/A1+39.50%

AAA44.18%

Jul-09

Oct-

09

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-10

Oct-

10

Jan-1

1

Apr-

11

Jul-11

Oct-

11

Jan-1

2

Apr-

12

Short Term Debt BM

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SECURITIES HOLDING

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 32.51%

8.2% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 15.34%

8.08% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 12.72%

8.79% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 4.45%

CORPORATE DEBT 36.17%

10.6% INDIAN RAILWAY FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2018 9.42%

9.9% HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2018 9.03%

10.48% ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD. 2013 8.92%

9.5% NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRI. AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 20128.81%

SECURITISED DEBT 0.00%

MMI 31.32%

Income Advantage Fund ULGF01425/02/10BSLGINCADV109

Portfolio as on 30th April 2012

Asset Allocation

Rating Profile

About the FundObjective: To provide capital preservation and regular income, at a highlevel of safety over a medium term horizon by investing in high quality debtinstruments

Strategy: To actively manage the fund by building a portfolio of fixedincome instruments with medium term duration. The fund will invest ingovernment securities, high rated corporate bonds, high quality moneymarket instruments and other fixed income securities. The quality of theassets purchased would aim to minimize the credit risk and liquidity risk ofthe portfolio. The fund will maintain reasonable level of liquidity.

MMI31.32%

G-Secs32.51%

NCD36.17%

Maturity Profile

48.02%

18.82%

33.17%

Less than 2 years 2 to 7years 7years & above

P1+/A1+26.69%

Sovereign34.70%

AAA38.61%

Apr-

10

Jun-1

0

Aug-1

0

Oct-

10

Dec-1

0

Feb-1

1

Apr-

11

Jun-1

1

Aug-1

1

Oct-

11

Dec-1

1

Feb-1

2

Apr-

12

Gr. Inc Adv BM

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SECURITIES HOLDING

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 75.46%

8.79% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 20.07%

5.64% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2019 13.56%

8.35% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 12.94%

7.46% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2017 12.68%

9.15% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2024 6.85%

8.28% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2027 6.33%

7.61% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2015 2.60%

7.59% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2016 0.24%

7.8% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 0.13%

8.2% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 0.06%

CORPORATE DEBT 0.00%

EQUITY 0.00%

MMI 24.54%

Gilt Fund ULGF00630/05/03BSLIGRGILT109Portfolio as on 30th April 2012

Asset Allocation

Rating Profile

About the FundObjective: To deliver safe and consistent returns over a long-term period byinvesting in Government Securities.

Strategy: Active fund management at very low level of risk by having entireexposure to government securities & money marketinstruments, maintaining medium term duration of the portfolio to achievecapital conservation.

MMI24.54%

G-Secs75.46%

Maturity Profile

22.83%

29.74%

47.43%

Less than 2 years 2 to 7years 7years & above

Sovereign100.00%

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SECURITIES HOLDING

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 0.00%

CORPORATE DEBT 61.14%

9.8% NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRI. AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 20125.88%

9.57% INDIAN RAILWAY FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2021 5.15%

9.8% L I C HOUSING FINANCE LTD. 2014 3.45%

8.73% POWER GRID CORPN. OF INDIA LTD. 2015 3.00%

7.7% N H P C LTD. 2014 2.97%

9.75% TATA MOTORS LTD. 2020 2.89%

9.68% TATA SONS LTD. 2017 2.48%

12.65% CHOLAMANDALAM INVESTMENT AND FINANCE CO. LTD. 20142.46%

9.45% L I C HOUSING FINANCE LTD. 2022 2.46%

11.3% A C C LTD. 2013 2.39%

OTHER CORPORATE DEBT 28.01%

SECURITISED DEBT 0.00%

EQUITY 0.00% Rating Profile

Asset Allocation

Bond Fund ULGF00530/05/03BSLIGRBOND109

Portfolio as on 30th April 2012About the FundObjective: To achieve capital preservation along with stable returnsby investing in corporate bonds over medium-term period.

Strategy: To invest in high credit rated corporate bonds, maintaininga short-term duration of the portfolio at a medium level of risk toachieve capital conservation.

MMI38.86%

NCD61.14%

MMI 38.86%

Maturity Profile

53.82%

29.34%

16.84%

Less than 2 years 2 to 7years 7years & above

AA1.72%

AA+6.65%

AA-9.03%

P1+/A1+15.58%

AAA67.03%

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SECURITIES HOLDING

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 33.06%

8.08% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 3.97%

8.79% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 3.69%

7.8% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2021 3.51%

6.13% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2028 3.19%

7.8% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2020 3.15%

9.15% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2024 2.83%

7.99% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2017 2.43%

6.9% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2019 2.38%

8.13% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2022 2.09%

8.2% GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 2023 1.98%

OTHER GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 3.85%

CORPORATE DEBT 26.29%

10.48% ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD. 2013 5.00%

NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRI. AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2018 3.74%

9.61% POWER FINANCE CORPN. LTD. 2021 3.42%

8.84% POWER GRID CORPN. OF INDIA LTD. 2016 2.46%

8% MAHINDRA VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS LIMITED 2017 1.86%

7.05% CANARA BANK 2014 1.83%

NATIONAL HOUSING BANK 2018 1.76%

9.7% NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRI. AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 20161.66%

11.45% RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. 2013 1.41%

9.45% STATE BANK OF INDIA 2026 1.26%

Rating Profile

Asset Allocation

Fixed Interest Fund ULGF00416/07/02BSLGFIXINT109

Portfolio as on 30th April 2012 About the FundObjective: To achieve value creation at low risk over a long-term horizonby investing into high quality fixed interest securities.

Strategy: To actively manage the fund at a medium level of risk by havingentire exposure to government securities, corporate bonds maintainingmedium to long-term duration of the portfolio to achieve capitalconservation.

G-Secs33.06%

MMI40.65%

NCD26.29%

1.26%

OTHER CORPORATE DEBT 1.90%

EQUITY 0.00%

MMI 40.65%

Maturity Profile

45.91%

19.24%

34.86%

Less than 2 years 2 to 7years 7years & above

AA2.68%

P1+/A1+14.19%

AAA35.33%

Sovereign47.80%

Apr-

04

Aug-0

4

Dec-0

4

Apr-

05

Aug-0

5

Dec-0

5

Apr-

06

Aug-0

6

Dec-0

6

Apr-

07

Aug-0

7

Dec-0

7

Apr-

08

Aug-0

8

Dec-0

8

Apr-

09

Aug-0

9

Dec-0

9

Apr-

10

Aug-1

0

Dec-1

0

Apr-

11

Aug-1

1

Dec-1

1

Apr-

12

FIF BM