Envisioning Envisioning Future Future

Landscape Landscape TrajectoriesTrajectoriesAn Alternative Futures Approach to An Alternative Futures Approach to

Understanding Dynamics of Understanding Dynamics of Landscape ChangeLandscape Change

John BolteJohn BolteBiological & Ecological Engineering DepartmentBiological & Ecological Engineering Department

Oregon State UniversityOregon State University

Today’s DiscussionToday’s Discussion

Overview of alternative futures approach to Overview of alternative futures approach to understanding landscape dynamicsunderstanding landscape dynamics

Description of one approach using Description of one approach using EnvisionEnvision

Example applicationsExample applications

H.J. Andrews LTERH.J. Andrews LTER

Puget SoundPuget Sound

Alternative Futures Alternative Futures ProjectsProjects

Examine multiple Examine multiple scenariosscenarios of trends and of trends and assumptions about future conditions, assumptions about future conditions, generally using one or more models of change, generally using one or more models of change,

Assist in incorporating Assist in incorporating stakeholder stakeholder interactionsinteractions to define to define goals, constraints, goals, constraints, trajectories, drivers, outcomestrajectories, drivers, outcomes

Allow Allow visualizationvisualization of the results in a variety of of the results in a variety of types and formatstypes and formats

Ultimately are intended to assist in improving Ultimately are intended to assist in improving land management decision-makingland management decision-making

Approach: Multi-agent Approach: Multi-agent ModelingModeling

Based on modeling Based on modeling behavior and actionsbehavior and actions of of autonomous, adaptive agents (actors)autonomous, adaptive agents (actors)

Our approach: spatially explicit, represents Our approach: spatially explicit, represents land management decisions of entities land management decisions of entities ((actorsactors) with authority over parcels of land) with authority over parcels of land

Actor decisionsActor decisions implemented through policies implemented through policies that guide & constrain potential actionsthat guide & constrain potential actions

Autonomous processesAutonomous processes (e.g. succession) (e.g. succession) simultaneously modeledsimultaneously modeled

Envision – Conceptual Envision – Conceptual StructureStructure

LandscapeFeedbacks

LandscapeFeedbacks

Actors Decision-makers managing the landscape by selecting policies responsive to their objectives

Policies

Fundamental Descriptors of constraints and actions defining land use management

decisionmaking

ScenarioDefinition

Autonomous Change Processes

Models of Non-anthropogenic Landscape Change

Landscape Production Models

Generating Landscape Metrics Reflecting Ecosystem Service Productions

Multiagent Decision-making

Select policies and generate land

management decision affecting landscape

pattern

Landscape Spatial Container in which landscape

changes, ES Metrics are

depicted

ENVISIONENVISION – Triad of Relationships – Triad of Relationships

Polic

ies

Inte

ntio

nsActors

Values

LandscapesMetrics of Production

Provide a common frame of referenceProvide a common frame of referencefor actors, policies and landscape productionsfor actors, policies and landscape productions

Goals•Economic Services•Ecosystem Services•Socio-cultural Services

Policy DefinitionPolicy Definition

Landscape policies are decisions or plans of Landscape policies are decisions or plans of action for accomplishing desired outcomes.action for accomplishing desired outcomes.

  from:from:

Lackey, R.T. 2006. Axioms of ecological Lackey, R.T. 2006. Axioms of ecological policy. Fisheries. 31(6): 286-290.policy. Fisheries. 31(6): 286-290.  

Policies in ENVISIONPolicies in ENVISION Policies are a decision or plan of action for Policies are a decision or plan of action for

accomplishing a desired outcome; they are a accomplishing a desired outcome; they are a fundamental unit of computationfundamental unit of computation in Evoland in Evoland

Describe actions available to actorsDescribe actions available to actors

Primary CharacteristicsPrimary Characteristics::

Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query)Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query)

Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative models)models)

Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection and application of the Policyand application of the Policy

ExampleExample: [: [Purchase conservations easement to allow Purchase conservations easement to allow revegetation of degraded riparian areasrevegetation of degraded riparian areas] in [] in [areas areas with no built structures and high channel migration with no built structures and high channel migration capacitycapacity] when [] when [native fish habitat becomes scarcenative fish habitat becomes scarce]]

Models in ENVISIONModels in ENVISION Models are “plug-ins” of two types:Models are “plug-ins” of two types:

1)1) Autonomous ProcessesAutonomous Processes: Represent : Represent processes causing landscape changes processes causing landscape changes independent of human decision-making independent of human decision-making – e.g. climate change, vegetative – e.g. climate change, vegetative succession, forest growth, fire, succession, forest growth, fire, flooding, ??? flooding, ???

2)2) Evaluative Models Evaluative Models – Generate – Generate production statistics and report back production statistics and report back how well the landscape is doing a how well the landscape is doing a producing metrics of interest – e.g. producing metrics of interest – e.g. carbon sequestration, habitat carbon sequestration, habitat production, land availability, risk, ???production, land availability, risk, ???

Models in ENVISIONModels in ENVISION A well-defined, relatively simple, yet robust A well-defined, relatively simple, yet robust

interface specificationinterface specification is defined for both is defined for both Autonomous Processes and Evaluative Models.Autonomous Processes and Evaluative Models.

Models can expose Models can expose input input andand output variables output variables

Models have Models have full access full access to to the underlying the underlying spatial representation, policy sets, exposed spatial representation, policy sets, exposed variables, actor representation, and spatial variables, actor representation, and spatial engineengine

Models can make changes to the Models can make changes to the underlying underlying landscape representationlandscape representation

EnvisionEnvision automatically manages automatically manages all exposed all exposed model datamodel data

EN

VIS

ION

Mean Age at Harvest

Carbon Sequestration

Forest Products Extraction

Harvested Acreage

Fish Habitat (IBI)

Resource Lands Protection

Evaluative ModelsData Sources

Autonomous ProcessModels

Parcels (IDU’s)

Rural Residential Expansion

Policy Set(s)

Agent Descriptors

Vegetative Succession

Climate Change

Envision Andrews Envision Andrews ApplicationApplication

Envision Andrews - Envision Andrews - ScenariosScenarios

Conservation - no Climate ChangeConservation - no Climate Change

Development - no Climate ChangeDevelopment - no Climate Change

Conservation - with Climate ChangeConservation - with Climate Change

Development - with Climate ChangeDevelopment - with Climate Change

Envision Andrews Study Envision Andrews Study AreaArea

Scenario Results – Forest Scenario Results – Forest CarbonCarbon

Scenario Results – Forest Scenario Results – Forest Product ExtractionProduct Extraction

Scenario Results – Fish Scenario Results – Fish IBIIBI

EN

VIS

ION

Impervious Surfaces

Water Quality/Loading (SPARROW)

Nearshore Habitat (Controlling Factors Model)

Resource Lands Protection

Evaluative ModelsData Sources

Autonomous ProcessModels

IDU’s – GSU/LULC/…

Rural/Urban Development

Policy Set(s)

Agent Descriptors

Expansion of Nearshore Modifications

Population Growth Residential Land Supply

INVEST Tier 1 Carbon

Envision Puget Sound Envision Puget Sound ApplicationApplication

Envision Puget Sound- Envision Puget Sound- ScenariosScenarios

Status Quo Status Quo – continue current trends– continue current trends

Managed Growth Managed Growth – adopt a suite of additional – adopt a suite of additional policies aimed at conserving/restoring habitats, policies aimed at conserving/restoring habitats, protecting resource lands, emphasizing denser protecting resource lands, emphasizing denser development pattern near urban areasdevelopment pattern near urban areas

Unconstrained Growth Unconstrained Growth – allow lower density – allow lower density patterns, less habitat protection, less resource patterns, less habitat protection, less resource land protectionland protection

Puget Sound

South Sound

Bainbridge Island

Ferry Terminal Area

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned Alternative future assessments are fundamentally Alternative future assessments are fundamentally place-basedplace-based

and and client-dependentclient-dependent: : Each application is differentEach application is different..

CommonalitiesCommonalities do exist and should be exploited within an do exist and should be exploited within an extensible, adaptable DSS extensible, adaptable DSS frameworkframework

Good software design Good software design is criticalis critical

Engagement with stakeholdersEngagement with stakeholders is critical to define decision is critical to define decision processes, desired outcomes endpointsprocesses, desired outcomes endpoints

Defensible, Defensible, place-specific models place-specific models are criticalare critical

more info at:more info at:

http://envision.bioe.orst.http://envision.bioe.orst.eduedu