Envisioning and Achieving the End

State

If a man does not know to what port he is steering,

no wind is favorable.

Seneca, 4 BC—65 AD

12

What is the Right Solution?• The Future is Plural!

There is a future that will occur without an intervention There is a future that will occur if an intervention is

successful (or not!) There are an infinite number of futures in between

• All Planning Attempts to Alter the Future• Consequently, All Planning is Future Oriented

If the “future” were immutable,planning would be pointless.

10

Reliable Assumptions

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

The coldest day in July is warmer than the warmest day in December.

Norms can be extremely accurate and reliable.

Trends provide direction.

9

Futures Forecasting• Envisioning the future is not a prediction,

but a forecast• While precision may be impossible, identifying

a range of likely outcomes is not Norms can be reliably estimated far into the future, even

when the details can not Trends provide direction with general tendency Social Forecasting—using social factors to forecast

probable trends and events

A lack of ability to be precise must not be an excuse for a lack of foresight!

8

Identifying the Range

EventHorizon

Pres

ent

Confidence Level

Igno

rant

Om

nisc

ient

KNO

WLE

DGE

TIMEPast Now Future

UnknownFo

rese

eabl

e Fu

ture

The Event Horizon is that portion of the future where you can realistically anticipate the consequences of your actions

Event Horizon

Limiting the Scope

EventHorizon

Tim

id

Rash

Event Line

Best Possible

Worst Possible

Most Likely

Und

esira

ble

D

esira

ble

OU

TCO

ME

TIMEPast Now Future

Scenario Review

The Manageable Future lies between the best and worst case scenarios with the highest confidence nearest the most likely scenario and oriented closest to

the present

End State

• “If you don’t know where you’re goin,’ How you gonna know when you get there?”

Yogi Berra

• Must be attainable • Specific enough to be visualized• Provides the beginning of a

“common operational picture”

What the Incident Commander wants the situation to be when operations conclude.

7

Commander’s Intent

• Provides the planning guidance for developing plans

• Describes commander’s rationale and assumptions

• Allows subordinates to use initiative and exploit opportunities

A clear, concise articulation of the purpose behind one or more tasks assigned to subordinates.

6

Fog

• Called the “Fog of War” by the military

• Information will always be ambiguous, uncertain, unreliable, and even conflicting

• You will never be absolutely certain of an appropriate course of action

A condition that prohibits a tactical commander from obtaining accurate

information in a timely manner.

5

Friction

• Manifests itself in at least three distinct dimensionsPhysical PsychologicalSelf-Induced

The force that resists all action. It makes the simple difficult and the difficult seemingly impossible.

4

Center of Gravity

• May be tangible, such as a structure or hostages

• May be intangible, such as perceived air of legitimacy, commitment to a course of action or objective

Something necessary which, if eliminated, damaged or destroyed will severely hinder

the ability to succeed.

3

Critical Vulnerability

• May be tangible, such as lack of weapons or ammunition

• May be intangible such as ability to sustain or continually resist

A weakness that if exploited will create failure.

2

Planning Misused

• Attempting to forecast events too far into the future• Too much detail

(sometimes called “over planning”)

• Using planning as a scripting process• Inflexible plans or dogmatic adherence to

any plan

1

Questions?