ensuring global food security

Ensuring Global Food SecurityEnsuring Global Food Security

Shenggen FanShenggen FanInternational Food Policy Research InstituteInternational Food Policy Research Institute

SID Vijverberg Session on Food SID Vijverberg Session on Food The Hague, September 22, 2009The Hague, September 22, 2009

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009

OverviewOverview

1.1. Food security under stressFood security under stress

2.2. Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition

3.3. Policy agenda for investment and actionPolicy agenda for investment and action


Food insecurity due to multiple stress factors Food insecurity due to multiple stress factors

Climate change Climate change

Price volatilityPrice volatility

Fast growth of demandFast growth of demand

Land degradation Land degradation

Water Water scarcity scarcity

Limited capitalLimited capital

RecessionRecession

Low R&D investmentLow R&D investment

Lack of infrastructureLack of infrastructure

Subsidized biofuelsSubsidized biofuels

Declining tradeDeclining trade

Pests & diseases Pests & diseases

Food security

Agriculture is a necessary condition Agriculture is a necessary condition to address these stress factorsto address these stress factors


Food price crisis and food riotsFood price crisis and food riots

Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009.Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009.

Price spike


Domestic prices remain high and volatileDomestic prices remain high and volatile

Source: FAO 2009.Source: FAO 2009.

MaizeMaize RiceRice


Food crisis worsened by economic Food crisis worsened by economic recessionsrecessions

Source: Data from IMF 2009; Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal. 2009; Source: Data from IMF 2009; Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal. 2009; UNCTAD 2009, and World Bank 2009.UNCTAD 2009, and World Bank 2009.


Land constraintsLand constraints

• At most 12% more arable land available that At most 12% more arable land available that isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion or desertification or desertification (Thompson 2009)(Thompson 2009)

• Land prices per hectare: $1,000 – $100,000Land prices per hectare: $1,000 – $100,000

• Land area in production could be doubled, Land area in production could be doubled, but only by:but only by:- massive destruction of forests and loss of massive destruction of forests and loss of

biodiversity and carbon sequestration biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacitycapacity

- high marginal costs of investmenthigh marginal costs of investment


Water constraints: Water constraints: Areas of physical and economic water scarcityAreas of physical and economic water scarcity

Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.Agriculture, 2007.


Rising number of hungry people in the Rising number of hungry people in the developing world developing world

Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009.

(in m

illio

n)

>1 bil.

WFS target


Rising world population adds to pressures Rising world population adds to pressures on food securityon food security

Source: Worldmapper 2009.

Countries resized relative to population in 2050

Population = 9 bil. by 2050Population = 9 bil. by 2050


OverviewOverview





Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: production in 2050: Irrigated wheatIrrigated wheat

NCAR A2a

Global production = -42%Global production = -42%Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Global food prices Global food prices

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Child malnutritionChild malnutrition

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

Part of the silent

Climate change

health crisis


Agriculture must be on the 2009 Agriculture must be on the 2009 Copenhagen agenda, but how?Copenhagen agenda, but how?

1.1. Investment: Investment: agriculture-related investments, agriculture-related investments, as part of a Global Climate Change Fund as part of a Global Climate Change Fund

2.2. Incentives: Incentives: phase in incentives first to reduce phase in incentives first to reduce emissions and support technological changeemissions and support technological change

3.3. Information: Information: Establish comprehensive Establish comprehensive information and monitoring services of land information and monitoring services of land use and soils for verification purposesuse and soils for verification purposes


Policy and investment scenarios Policy and investment scenarios

1.1. INC AG RESINC AG RES: 60% increase in crop yield growth : 60% increase in crop yield growth and 30% increase in livestock growthand 30% increase in livestock growth

2.2. INC AG RES w/EFFINC AG RES w/EFF: productivity growth by 30% in : productivity growth by 30% in 2015 and by 50% in 2030 2015 and by 50% in 2030

3.3. NRM/IMMNRM/IMM:: Enhanced water and soil management Enhanced water and soil management with enhanced market accesswith enhanced market access

4.4. INC AG RES w/EFF & IRR EXPINC AG RES w/EFF & IRR EXP

5.5. COMP POL_INVCOMP POL_INV:: NRM/IMM + INC AG RES w/EFF + NRM/IMM + INC AG RES w/EFF + IRR EXPIRR EXP

Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


MaizeMaize yields yields

SA SSA Developing World2000 (mt/ha) 1.9 1.5 3.0 4.4 2025NCAR CF (mt/ha) 2.5 2.0 4.5 6.4 NRM/IMM (3) 1.4 2.5 1.3 -0.1INC AG RES (1) 5.0 9.7 7.9 2.6 INC AG RES w/EFF (2) 5.9 11.6 9.4 3.2 INC AG RES w/EFF & IRR EXP (4) 6.5 10.4 9.6 3.6 COMP POL_INV (5) 7.9 14.4 11.2 3.7 2050NCAR CF (mt/ha) 2.4 2.2 5.4 7.8 NRM/IMM (3) 1.7 2.7 1.0 -0.2INC AG RES (1) 5.2 19.9 18.1 5.7 INC AG RES w/EFF (2) 3.9 48.9 47.3 16.6 INC AG RES w/EFF & IRR EXP (4) 6.5 48.9 48.2 17.5 COMP POL_INV (5) 8.3 53.6 47.8 17.0



PricesPrices

2000US$/mt

CC w/CFUS$/mt

NRM/IMM (3)

INC AG RES(1)

INC AG RES

w/EFF(2)

INC AG RES w/EFF

& IRR EXP(4)

COMP POL_INV (5)

Percent change, 2025Beef 1,925 2,402 -0.4 -5.6 -8.4 -8.3 -8.8Pork 911 1,061 -0.9 -4.9 -8.0 -7.8 -8.7Poultry 1,203 1,451 -0.3 -7.3 -10.2 -10.0 -10.3Rice 190 272 -0.6 -7.5 -8.8 -9.7 -10.3Wheat 113 203 -2.1 -12.4 -14.2 -13.0 -14.9

Percent change, 2050Beef 1,925 3,352 -0.6 -13.6 -38.0 -37.7 -38.1Pork 911 1,474 -0.9 -16.9 -40.0 -39.7 -40.3Poultry 1,203 2,010 -0.6 -17.0 -41.5 -41.1 -41.4Rice 190 347 0.2 -18.7 -40.3 -41.9 -41.7Wheat 113 297 -3.7 -28.2 -53.3 -50.9 -53.1Maize 95 210 -2.0 -37.9 -64.0 -62.7 -62.6



2000 CC w/CF

NRM/IMM (3)

INC AG RES (1)

INC AG RES w/EFF (2)

INC AG RES w/EFF& IRR EXP (4)

COMP POL_INV (5)

Mil. children

Mil. children Percentage change, 2025

SA 75.6 66.4 -2.4 -3.3 -3.8 -3.7 -6.2SSA 32.7 44.7 -5.5 -8.5 -9.8 -9.3 -14.8Developing 147.8 140.0 -4.1 -6.3 -7.3 -7.0 -11.2

Percent change, 2050SA 75.6 52.6 -2.6 -9.1 -19.5 -19.1 -21.8SSA 32.7 34.2 -6.9 -25.3 -55.8 -54.2 -60.1Developing 147.8 106.4 -4.8 -18.0 -36.2 -35.4 -39.2

Child malnutritionChild malnutrition



OverviewOverview





Strategic agendaStrategic agenda

1.1. Facilitate open Facilitate open tradetrade and reduce market and reduce market volatility volatility

2.2. Promote pro-poor Promote pro-poor agriculture growth agriculture growth with with technology and institutional innovationstechnology and institutional innovations

3.3. Expand social protection and child Expand social protection and child nutrition actionnutrition action


Policy agenda for investment and actionPolicy agenda for investment and action

Short-termShort-term::• Jumpstart agric. productivity in key areasJumpstart agric. productivity in key areas• Establish emergency grain reserve to reduce Establish emergency grain reserve to reduce

volatilityvolatility• Expand emergency and humanitarian assistanceExpand emergency and humanitarian assistance

Long-termLong-term::• Invest in sustainable pro-poor agric. growthInvest in sustainable pro-poor agric. growth• Calm markets and facilitate open tradeCalm markets and facilitate open trade• Invest in social protection and child nutrition Invest in social protection and child nutrition

actionaction


Short-term actions for agric. productivity Short-term actions for agric. productivity enhancementenhancement

• Access to finance Access to finance (e.g. rural banks and micro-finance) (e.g. rural banks and micro-finance)

• Expansion of risk management Expansion of risk management (e.g. crop insurance)(e.g. crop insurance)

• Access to inputs Access to inputs (e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs)(e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs)

• Access to services, extension Access to services, extension

• Investment in rural infrastructure Investment in rural infrastructure (rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation) (rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation)


Long-term action for agric. growth:Long-term action for agric. growth:Double public agric. R&D to impact povertyDouble public agric. R&D to impact poverty

CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of this expansionas part of this expansion

Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.

R&D allocation(mil. 2005 $)

in # of poor (mil.)2008-2020

+ Agr. output growth (% pts.)

2008-20202008* 2013SSA 608 2,913 -143.8 2.8S Asia 908 3,111 -124.6 2.4Devel.ing World 4,975 9,951 -282.1 1.1


Calm markets and facilitate open tradeCalm markets and facilitate open trade

1.1. Keep trade openKeep trade open even at times of global and even at times of global and regional food shortageregional food shortage

2.2. Regulate food Regulate food commodity marketscommodity markets? (only as ? (only as part of financial markets)part of financial markets)

3.3. Establish grain Establish grain reserves policyreserves policy at global level at global level• shared physical reserves, andshared physical reserves, and• virtual reserve (a new institution at global virtual reserve (a new institution at global

levellevel))


Invest in social protection and child Invest in social protection and child nutrition actionnutrition action

Protective actions e.g.:Protective actions e.g.:• Cash transfersCash transfers• Employment-based food security programsEmployment-based food security programs

Preventive actions e.g.:Preventive actions e.g.:• School feeding (new insights)School feeding (new insights)• Early childhood nutrition programs Early childhood nutrition programs

Focus on children, women, and poorestFocus on children, women, and poorest


Food Security PortalFood Security Portalhttp://www.foodsecurityportal.orghttp://www.foodsecurityportal.org

• Presents current Presents current info on world info on world food system food system developmentsdevelopments

• Increases ability Increases ability to respond to respond quickly and quickly and adequatelyadequately

• Facilitated by Facilitated by IFPRIIFPRI

ensuring global food security

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