engr 610 applied statistics fall 2007 - week 2 marshall university cite jack smith
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ENGR 610Applied Statistics
Fall 2007 - Week 2
Marshall University
CITE
Jack Smith
Overview for Today Homework problems 1.25, 2.54, 2.55 Review of Ch 3 Homework problems 3.27, 3.31 Probability and Discrete Probability
Distributions (Ch 4) Homework assignment
Homework problems
1.25 2.54 2.55
Chapter 3 Review
Measures of… Central Tendency Variation Shape
Skewness Kurtosis
Box-and-Whisker Plots
Measures ofCentral Tendency Mean (arithmetic)
Average value: Median
Middle value - 50th percentile (2nd quartile) Mode
Most popular (peak) value(s) - can be multi-modal Midrange
(Max+Min)/2 Midhinge
(Q3+Q1)/2 - average of 1st and 3rd quartiles
1
NX i
i
N
Measures of Variation Range (max-min) Inter-Quartile Range (Q3-Q1) Variance
Sum of squares (SS) of the deviation from mean divided by the degrees of freedom (df) - see pp 113-5
df = N, for the whole population df = n-1, for a sample
2nd moment about the mean (dispersion)(1st moment about the mean is zero!)
Standard Deviation Square root of variance (same units as variable)
Sample (s2, s, n) vs Population (2, , N)
Quantiles Equipartitions of ranked array of observations
Percentiles - 100 Deciles - 10 Quartiles - 4 (25%, 50%, 75%) Median - 2
Pn = n(N+1)/100 -th ordered observation
Dn = n(N+1)/10
Qn = n(N+1)/4
Median = (N+1)/2 = Q2 = D5 = P50
Measures of Shape Symmetry
Skewness - extended tail in one direction 3rd moment about the mean
Kurtosis Flatness, peakedness
Leptokurtic - highly peaked, long tails Mesokurtic - “normal”, triangular, short tails Platykurtic - broad, even
4th moment about the mean
Box-and-Whisker Plots Graphical representation of five-number summary
Min, Max (full range) Q1, Q3 (middle 50%) Median (50th %-ile)
Shows symmetry (skewness) of distribution
Other Resources SPSS Tutorial at Statistical Consulting
Services http://www.stats-consult.com/tutorials.html
MathWorld http://mathworld.wolfram.com See Probability and Statistics
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Probability
_and_statistics
Homework Problems 3.27 3.31
Chapter 4
Probability Introduction to Probability Rules of Probability
Discrete Probability Distributions Probability Distributions Binomial Distribution Poisson Distribution Hypergeometric, Negative Binomial, Geometric
Distributions
Introduction to Probability Probability - numeric value representing the chance,
likelihood, or possibility that an event will occur Classical, theoretical Empirical Subjective
Elementary event - a distinct individual outcome Event - a set of elementary events Joint event - defined by two or more characteristics
Rules of Probability1. A probability P(A) for event A is between 0 (null
event) and 1 (certain event)2. The complement of P(A) is the probability that A will
not occur, and P(not-A) = 1- P(A) 3. Two events are mutually exclusive if
P(A and B) = 04. If two events are mutually exclusive, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)5. If set of events are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive, then
P(Ai) 1i
Rules of Probability6. If two events are not mutually exclusive, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B), whereP(A and B) is the joint probability of A and B.
7. The conditional probability of B occurring, given that A has occurred, is given byP(B|A) = P(A and B)/P(A)
8. If two events are independent, thenP(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) andP(A) = P(A|B) and P(B) = P(B|A)
9. If two events are not independent, thenP(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A)
Probability Distributions A probability distribution for a discrete random
variable is complete set of all possible distinct outcomes and their probabilities of occurring, whose sum is 1.
The expected value of a discrete random variable is its weighted average over all possible values where the weights are given by the probability distribution.
E(X) X iP(X i)i
Probability Distributions The variance of a discrete random variable is the
weighted average of the squared difference between each possible outcome and the mean over all possible values where the weights (frequencies) are given by the probability distribution.
The standard deviation (X) is then the square root of the variance.
X2 (X i X )2P(X i)
i
Binomial Distribution Each elementary event is a Bernoulli event, with one
of two mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive possible outcomes.
The probability of “success” (p) is constant from trial to trial, and the probability of “failure” is 1-p.
The outcome for each trial is independent of any other trial
The proportion of trials resulting in x successes, out of n trials, with a constant probability of p, is given by:
P(X x | n, p) n!
x!(n x)!px (1 p)n x
Binomial Distribution, cont’d Binomial coefficients follow Pascal’s Triangle 1
1 1
1 2 1
1 3 3 1 Distribution nearly bell-shaped for large n and p=1/2. Skewed right (positive) for p<1/2, and
left (negative) for p>1/2 Mean () = np Variance (2) = np(1-p)
Poisson Distribution Probability for a particular number of discrete events
over a continuous interval (area of opportunity) Assumes a Poisson process (“isolable” event) Limit case of Binomial distribution for large n Based only on expectation value ()
P(X x | ) e x
x!
Poisson Distribution, cont’d Mean () = variance (2) = Right-skewed, but approaches symmetric bell-shape
as gets large
Other Discrete Probability Distributions
Hypergeometric (pp 159-160) Bernoulli events, but selected from finite population
without replacement p A/N, where A number of successes in population N Approaches binomial for n < 5% of N
Negative Binomial (pp 162-163) Number of trials (n) until xth success Binomial with last trial constrained to be a success
Geometric (pp 164-165) Special case of negative binomial for x = 1 (1st success)
Cumulative Probabilities
P(X<x) = P(X=1) + P(X=2) +…+ P(X=x-1)
P(X>x) = P(X=x+1) + P(X=x+2) +…+ P(X=n)
Homework Ch 4
Appendix 4.1 Problems: 4.57,60,61,64
Read Ch 5 Continuous Probability Distributions and
Sampling Distributions