energy transition and challenges for the 21st century

UFRGSMUN | UFRGS Model United NationsISSN: 2318-3195 | v.2, 2014| p. 337-374

ENERGY TRANSITION AND CHALLENGES FOR

THE 21ST CENTURYBruna Jaeger1

Patrícia Machry2

ABSTRACT

This section deals with the debate on the challenges generated by the Energy Transition. “Energy Transitions” are based on the notion that an energy resource, or a group of energy resources, dominates the market for a period or era, until it is challenged and eventually replaced by other(s) resource(s) (Melosi 2010). Since the 1970s, when the world watched two major oil crises, states and corporations began discussing alternatives that could replace oil as the basis of the global energy mix. In recent years, this process has intensified. The use of clean energy sources (hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, biofu-els) emerge as possible replacements for fossil fuels. However, this is not an easy transition. There are many questions about the ability of these new sources to meet world energy demand, which is growing. In addition, proposals that include increased use of new forms of fossil fuels (shale gas, tar sands, ultra-heavy oil) keep the world dependent on finite fuels and generate huge impacts on the environment. In this sense, the WEC seeks to discuss possible solutions to this energy challenge. Ie, how to perform the transition to a post-oil era with-out affecting energy supply, maintaining equitable distribution of electricity and without destroying the environment.

1 Bruna Jaeger is a 8th semester International Relations undergraduation student at UFRGS and director of the WEC.2 Patrícia Machry is a 6th semester International Relations undergraduation student at UFRGS and assistant director of the WEC.

Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil

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1 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

1.1 THE CONCEPTS OF ENERGY TRANSITION AND ENERGY SECURITY

According to Kerr Oliveira (2012), the concept of energy basically refers to three aspects: natural energy resources, the infrastructure logistics of energy, and the set of techniques, knowledge and energy development. In other words, this can be understood as an Energy System.

Energy refers to the set of basic processes of extraction, capture and processing of natural energy resources. Also includes consumption systems or end use of different forms of energy that occur in the main productive activities (industry, agriculture, utilities, trade, transport and communications). Finally, energy can be understood as the capacity to make decisions regarding the use of energy infrastructure and investment in Research & Development (Kerr Oliveira 2012, 19).

As it already have been pointed out, “Energy Transitions” are based on the notion that an energy resource, or a group of energy resources, dominates the market for a period or era, until it is challenged and eventually replaced by other(s) resource(s) (Melosi 2010). An Energy Transition is not an abrupt change from one reality to another. It is a transformation that evolves through considerable time, and that can lead to greater diversity in the energy market (Yergin 2013). Energy Transitions are not sudden breakthroughs that follow periods of prolonged stagnation. Rather, they are processes that unfold continuously, gradually changing the composition of the resources used to generate heat, motion and light. These transitions also replace the dominant methods of energy conversion, increasing efficiency in energy-dependent processes (Smil 2013).

The concept of Energy Security can be understood as the state in which a country or region has a level of energy availability that is sufficient to maintain reasonable rates of economic growth and development (Klare 2004). In the long term, it means the ability to magnify the power consumption without major obstacles in terms of technology, infrastructure, power generation and distribution, or availability of energy resources. In addition, the ideal conditions for Energy Security shall ensure the integrity and security of energy infrastructure (Yergin 2006). Kerr Oliveira (2012) ranks the main Energy Security Strategies in three broad categories: (I) Energy Self-Reliance, which can be operationalized through the diversification of energy sources, decentralized infrastructure for generation and distribution of energy, energy innovation, and energy efficiency; (II) Security of External Energy Supply, which involves the diversification of foreign suppliers, or the militarization of the energy resources control abroad; and (III) Regional Energy Integration, which

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is achieved through the integration of infrastructure and energy supply chains in a region or continent.

1.2 THE IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY FOR HUMANKIND: AN OVERVIEW

There are several ways in which energy can transform human life. According to energy analyst Daniel Yergin, these transformations can be summarized in the simplest forms: the access to lighting, cooling, heating and transportation (Yergin 2004, 716). Before the light bulb was invented, lighting could be provided by the sun, candles, oil and gas lamps. Access to light gave men a whole variety of choices, as productive hours were extended once they no longer depended on sunlight. Access to heating by burning wood also made a difference to mankind, from cooking to the survival in cold temperatures. Cooling, on the other hand, allowed men to live and perpetuate the species in arid zones. Finally, the energy revolution that took place with the industrialization represented a change also in terms of transportation, when steam power was applied to boats and trains and resulted in locomotives and steam ships. People could travel on railways many times faster than on foot, transforming also the way services and goods were transported.

Energy can also be easily related to civilization and social development. Societies that remained agrarian for a long time and were not touched by industrialization had little population growth (Grigg 1980). That is because demographical increases have to rely on an expanding energy supply, for the simple reason that whenever human population grows, societies begin to require more of everything in order to satisfy the basic material needs of individuals: food, water, fibers, clothing, shelter and so on (Klare 2002). Therefore, alongside with developments in production (generally the spread of industrialization), communications, transportation and military, increases in human numbers can also enlarge the demand for natural resources3. According to Goldemberg (1998, 7), energy is an essential ingredient for development, therefore the energy consumption per capita could be a good meter of a nation’s quality of life, wealth and development4.

Since humans first appeared on Earth, controlling energy resources has been a major concern for survival. As men learned how to use and control energy, they increased their power to alter the environment around them, producing more food and building bigger and stronger shelters. As centuries passed by, societies became

3 Michael Klare stresses that increases in personal wealth also contributes for an insatiable appetite for energy, as people start to desire more resource-intensive commodities as they get wealthier (e.g. private automobiles) (Klare 2002, 15).4 Energy is a relevant variable to understand the different capacities among great powers: the richest and most developed nations present the greater amounts of energy consumption (Kerr Oliveira 2012).


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more complex, which led to an increased use of energy resources to maintain such new arrangements. A variety of new energy resources were discovered throughout the years, and the control over them turned to be a main concern of states, as they believed that this control would render them powerful within a competitive international system.

Yet, during a period of over fifty thousand years, humankind relied only on a single form of energy: human muscles (Smil 1994). Human labor power was for centuries an important source of mechanical energy: not only it was responsible for agricultural production, but it was also crucial for the formation of armies to defend territories since the Ancient Ages (Kerr Oliveira and Brandão 2011). Fire was discovered by burning wood, animal dung and charcoal, providing heat, and this discovery came as a means to complement human strength in providing energy. The domestication of animals also turned out to be an important source of energy, since animal traction proved to be useful for transporting people and goods. Later, the use of water and wind to generate power gained importance, and windmills and water-wheels became the most powerful mean to use energy until the invention of the steam engine (Smil 1994).

In the end of the 18th century, a wave of technological advances led to a process of modernization which later became known as the Industrial Revolution. In that moment, men discovered the potential of fossil fuels - starting with coal -, and steam engines rendered windmills and water-wheels obsolete. This use of coal and other fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas showed an energy intensity as never seen before (Smil 1994). With developments in the energy system such as changes in the production, transmission, storage and consumption of energy, a wide range of industrial branches started to become viable. The use of steam engines also held important developments on military affairs, as they fastened the speed of troops and the transport of supplies.

Between the 18th and 19th centuries, the aforementioned innovations regarding coal use deeply changed the textile production. They also revolutionized metallurgy and steel industry, allowing the creation of a whole new naval industry. On the second half of the 19th century, electricity started to be used, completely altering means of communication with the advent of the telegraph. The introduction of telephone and radio changed forever the conduct of warfare, as they facilitated communication between troops and led to the invention of coding. They also revolutionized communications, allowing real-time transmission of events to the civilian population. Almost at the same period, the development of oil refining processes ended up constituting a whole complex of industries connected to the petrochemical sector. These petrochemical developments enabled the arrangement of electric, aerospace and nuclear industries, which deeply influenced the war industry (Kerr Oliveira 2012).


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1.3 ENERGY TRANSITIONS THROUGHOUT HISTORY

In the last centuries, technological and productive revolutions were always strictly related to transformations in energy systems5. Every time the main source of energy changed, other modifications also took place with it, such as transformations in military craft, capital accumulation and international hegemony (Kerr Oliveira 2012; Arrighi 1996). To historian Giovanni Arrighi, commerce development and accumulation of wealth led to the constitution of a more advanced form of production and energy management, and these factors were crucial for the emergence of modern capitalist states (Arrighi 1996, 39-40). Therefore, in this analysis, energy becomes fundamental for states’ accumulation of power, as it impacts defense capacities, economical and productivity competitiveness, social welfare and access to goods and services. States that can use energetic infrastructure more efficiently can achieve more relative power than the ones which are less developed in such area.

When human force and animal traction were the most important energy sources, a powerful nation would be the one with an enormous population and large pastures. For instance, the huge supply of human energy contributed to grant the Chinese Empire with great power (Kerr Oliveira and Brandão 2011). Later on, when men discovered that energy could be provided by burning wood, nations who had access to forests were the ones who accumulated more power. Merchant cities of northern Italy first manipulated wood, but the true hegemonic states turned out to be the maritime ones, especially Portugal, because of its access to great forests in America. Wood became the main raw material of European economies, serving both for fueling and for the construction of tools (Nogueira 1985). However, even though wood is a renewable6 source of energy – as it can be easily replaced by reforestation -, the demand for it started to grow faster than its replacement, and a new source started to become more popular: mineral coal (Kerr Oliveira 2012).

Simultaneously with the status of coal as the fundamental and predominant energy resource, England raised as the great hegemonic power of the 19th century. The importance of control over coal sources grew remarkably, since it became decisive for wars and for the sustainability of production, transportation and communication systems in the Industrial Revolution era. England benefited

5 An energy system involves and connects natural energy resources with the infrastructure, technology and knowledge related to the use of many different forms of energy. It includes the extraction of natural resources and the transformation of nature forces in other forms of energy or work through different means and types of converters (Kerr Oliveira 2012).6 According to the International Energy Agency, “renewable energy is energy that is derived from natural processes (e.g. sunlight and wind) that are replenished at a higher rate than they are consumed. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, bioenergy and ocean power are sources of renewable energy” (OECD/IEA 2014).


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from the almost inexhaustible supply of Scottish coal reserves (Kerr Oliveira and Brandão 2011). Nonetheless, the energy model based on coal would not survive the expanding energy demand of an increasingly industrial and wealthier world.

The transition of the Coal Era to the Petroleum Era was slow. Differently from the transition from wood to coal, the transition to the intense use of oil did not occur due to an extinguishment of coal reserves, but because a new technology proved itself to be significantly more efficient. Petrochemical revolution led to other energy innovations such as aeronautical turbines and propelled rockets fed by petroleum-based fuels. The former led to a revolution in transportation; the latter permitted a restructuration in communications, as it led to surveillance and observation from the space (Kerr Oliveira 2012).

The most powerful nations of the 20th century were precisely the ones which had major consumption and production of oil: the United States of America and the Soviet Union. While the First World War consolidated the use of radio in the battlefield, the Second War proved to the entire world that a huge availability of fuel to feed navies and aviation was central to winning any campaign (Kerr Oliveira 2012). The bipolarity of the balance of power structured during the Cold War was reinforced by the easy access and domain over natural energy resources detained by the USA and the USSR. By the end of that century, industrialized countries were fully adapted to fossil fuels. Coal and natural gas continued to provide power, while oil was consolidated as essential for transportation and industries. Capitalism expansion allowed petroleum to become the most important fuel of the present, therefore starting to be related to the American hegemony.

Thus, it can be definitely said that the great dominant power of a specific period always turned out to be the one which had control over the current energy model. However, this did not happen without jeopardizing the ones who were left behind in industrialization. Nations that could not follow the most powerful ones on this process turned to be on a dependent and subordinated position. As high quality of life is related to energy consumption, populations who cannot count on modern energy forms are also the poorest in the world. This leads to increasing competition among states, mainly over the domain of natural resources and control of new technologies. The desire for self-sufficiency over energy issues drives developing nations to find alternative sources in order to diversify their energy matrix, in an effort to increase their independence and relative power (Yergin 2006).

The current energy model based on the preeminence of oil has been showing signs of weakness since the 1970s. The petroleum crisis of 1973 and 1979 were samples of this system’s exhaustion. In both situations, the worldwide dependence on this energy source spread a major crisis, and the debate over alternative sources started to become important. Other forms of energy such as nuclear and hydro-electric power, biomass, solar and wind, seem to be an interesting alternative. It is


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not known if the world will be able to maintain an energy matrix based on scarce and polluting fossil fuels for a very long time, and therefore it is of extreme importance to debate over a possible new energy transition that might be happening just now.

2 STATEMENT OF THE ISSUE

According to the World Economic Forum (2013), there is currently major attention focused in the next Energy Transition: the expectation or the possibility of a significant change in the global energy mix. In relation to this possibility, some questions stand out. What would be the nature of the mix change? How fast would it be? How long could it take? The answers to these questions will have a profound impact on the global energy system for producers and consumers worldwide.

2.2 TRANSITION TO A POST-OIL ERA

In the 1970s, the energy model centered on oil showed its structural limits for the first time. Before 1973 and the subsequent oil crises, the global energy mix was composed by 86.6% of fossil energy, with 46.1% of oil, 24% of coal and 16% of natural gas (IEA 2009). In that period, nuclear energy and hydropower accounted for less than 3% of primary energy produced in the world. The first signs of exhaustion from that model were appearing, as it became clear that the world could not continue to generate sustained economic growth by expanding the consumption of finite fossil energy at the same rate that occurred in the years 1940-1960. It became evident the need to establish a major transition to a “Post-Oil Era” (Kerr Oliveira 2012).

Although the construction of a new model may have a high economic and technology cost, this development seems to be the only way that would allow increased energy supply on a global scale. In this sense, the post-oil Energy Transition has major impacts on issues of socio-economic development, environment, regional integration and international security. Particularly, the theme that permeates this debate is centered on the concept of Energy Security of a State or group of States. The structural characteristics of this crisis seem to be irreversible and are becoming increasingly clear: it is a crisis of the entire current energy model based on fossil hydrocarbons (coal, oil and gas) (Yergin 2006).

Today there is a renewed and much more intense focus on what kind of Energy Transition might be ahead and what timing it might be. Two factors have converged to generate this focus. The first is the concern about climate change and the traction of carbon policy in many countries and international forums. The second is the


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worry that the current energy mix will not prove adequate to meet the rapidly growing energy needs of emerging market nations. The shifts in the balance within the mix will have direct consequences for all participants in the world’s energy industry – incumbents, new entrants and innovators, governments and, of course, for all the peoples of the world (Yergin 2013, 2).

The energetic model that is proposed by many studies is based on the view that it should overcome the actual one, which is dependent on finite energy resources. This way, it would allow the structuring of a new model that makes possible to generate energy almost virtually infinite, with fairly low costs in economic, social and environmental terms (Kerr Oliveira 2012). However, the challenges of the different stages of a Great Energy Transition underway can significantly increase the likelihood of conflicts in the twenty-first century, marking disputes between different States’ energy security strategies, especially if they are willing to dispute the last largest reserves of oil and gas (Fuser 2008).

With the increase in oil prices in the 2000s, this debate has been resumed, partly by new environmental pressures, but mainly due to limitations presented by the actual energy model. The current energy mix is composed by 86.9% of fossil energy, with 33.1% of oil, 29.9% of coal and 23.9% of natural gas (British Petroleum 2013). In percentage terms, the global energy mix reduced dependence on fossil fuels about 10% over the last 30 years, which was at 95% in 1973. Crude oil remains the main energy resource; however, their representation in the overall mix was not so low in 13 years. However, considering that the world has doubled the total energy consumption, in reality the dependence on these energy sources has increased in absolute terms (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Although nuclear energy in its current stage of technological development is still dependent on finite energy resources (uranium, plutonium, thorium), this alternative to fossil fuels increased its participation in the global energy mix to 4.5%, while hydropower is at 6.6% and other renewable energies (wind, solar, geothermal) reached 1.9% of the total primary energy produced (British Petroleum 2013). Therefore, as it can be seen, the current model, based on fossil fuels, can be considered “monoenergetic”, i.e., one major source is responsible for most of the energy produced (Nogueira 1985).

Table 1 - Composition of energy mix by source and by region

Nuclear Hydro Coal Natural Gas Oil Other

Renewable

North America 7.6% 5.7% 17.1% 30% 37.3% 2%Latin America 0.7% 24.9% 4.2% 22.2% 45.4% 2.3%Europe and Eurasia 9.1% 6.5% 17.6% 33.3% 30% 3.3%


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Nuclear Hydro Coal Natural Gas Oil Other

Renewable

Middle East 0.04% 0.6% 1.2% 48.6% 49.3% 0.01%Africa 0.8% 5.9% 24.1% 27.4% 41.3% 0.35%Asia and Pacific 1.5% 5.7% 52.2% 11.2% 27.8% 1.3%

Source: Developed by the authors based on data from British Petroleum (2013).

Image 1 - Energy demand by 2035 and share of global energy consumption growth 2012-2035

Source: IEA (2013)

The International Energy Agency conducted a study on energy scenarios to 2035, highlighting the increasing global demand for energy. With an average growth of energy demand of 1.7% per year, oil consumption in the world will reach 120 million barrels per day by 2030 (IEA 2003). With a world GDP growth of around 1% in 2030, US$16 trillion would be needed in investments in the construction and expansion of global energy infrastructure, 60% of it in the electricity sector and 38% in the oil and gas sector (IEA 2003).

Hence, humanity faces the following problem: maintaining current existing energy infrastructure, which extends to the maximum possible duration of the current energy mix, implies the use of relatively scarce fuels unevenly distributed


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geographically, costly and highly polluting.Kerr Oliveira (2012) introduces the debate on the crisis of the Oil Age, which

involves three main shortcomings. The first considers that oil, as a finite resource, is in a process of exhaustion which will be accelerated in the coming decades, creating an unprecedented crisis (Campbell 2005). This position is summarized in the thesis of “world peak oil” (Hubbert 1956), which can be considered the most pessimistic approach, or “catastrophic”. The second one also considers oil a fossil and a finite resource, but sees its reserves as sufficient to supply mankind for a long time, probably for decades, with the greatest solutions to the expansion of oil extraction being the development of new technologies and exploration of new reserves (Deming 2003; Clarke 2006). Finally, the third approach, more optimistic, states that oil is not a fossil resource, but one of mineral origin (Gold 1987). According to this view, it would be formed deep inside the Earth, mainly from mineral carbon, which significantly alters the calculations of the total available volume in the crustal. In this model, formation of more oil would be a constant, although at a relatively slow rate. What this discussion shows is that there is a great difficulty in estimating how much oil can still be found. As there is a large margin of error in such calculations, it is also difficult to predict a date for the global peak oil.

Both in the intermediate and in the pessimistic scenario, the maintenance of high prices tends to favor the replacement of oil and other fossil fuels for other sources of cheaper fuels. This could reduce pressure on oil, postponing its exhaustion (Yergin 2006). The reduced capacity of extra oil production, or the lack of capacity for rapid expansion of its supply, would be one of the most important factors in explaining the rise in the prices in 1998 to 2000. With the demand virtually equal to the supply, any kind of risks to the global production may alter prices (Kerr Oliveira 2012; Klare 2005).

“Considering the immense variety of petroleum based products, the more likely it is that their high cost restricts its use to those purposes that cannot be easily replaced” (Kerr Oliveira, 2012, 145). Anyway, it is clear that a major world oil crisis might occur from the fall of world production of this resource. Due to the increase in costs that this will bring upon, such process is likely to extend the disputes for oil throughout the world. How this will happen is almost unpredictable for now, but the more a country is prepared to make this transition less it will be likely to suffer the consequences of the crisis. States that go through the Energy Transition earlier may advance more competitively in the Post-Oil era. States, or block of states, which are more advanced in planning their Energy Security will be able to make through this transition in an easier way and with less political, economic, social and environmental costs (Kerr Oliveira 2012).


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2.3 IMPACTS OF ENERGY TRANSITION

In this section, it will be explained the main impacts of the current Energy Transition to the International System, listing aspects related to International Security, Socio-Economic Development, Regional Integration and Environment.

International SecurityEnergy can be considered an essential feature to understand relations of

hierarchy, power distribution and security among states. Besides having direct implications for society and economy, the energy system also affects politics and war. In this sense, the ability to decide about the use of energy resources is central to ensuring the sovereignty of a state. The definition of Energy Decision Center of a state refers to the capacity of planning and autonomous controlling the generation and the use of energy inside the country, what directly influences the ability of states to transform energy resources in power (Kerr Oliveira 2012). As an example, without modern energy use, a country would be unable to use basic weapons of contemporary warfare, which rely on fuels and electricity for their operation systems. Therefore, “the success of the Energy Security Strategy of a state or group of states influences the perception of the distribution of power in the International System” (Kerr Oliveira 2012, 19).

The concept of National Logistics refers to planning the use of multiple means to accumulate political, economic, industrial, technological and military capabilities in order to, ultimately, accumulate power and ensure the safety of the country (Sebben 2010). National Logistics planning can also expand the deterrent capabilities of a state if it is successful in turning the national logistical infrastructure into a mechanism able to defend its territory in case of foreign attack (Martins 2008). At the center of such planning is energy infrastructure, which supports the operation of all other strategic infrastructure of National Logistics, such as communications, transport and industrial production (Kerr Oliveira 2012).

This way, energy is central to military and defense logistics, as well as being crucial to the long term sustainability of any country strategy (Lins 2006). In this sense, the control of energy resources and the energy distribution infrastructure can be considered central variables in global geopolitical disputes. Moreover, it can be an excuse or motivation for conflict between energy commodities exporters and suppliers. Logistics, energy infrastructure, and the pattern of energy consumption are understood as mechanisms of power transformers, and can be considered as key variables to the competition in the International System (Kerr Oliveira 2012).

Socio-Economic DevelopmentVirtually all basic public services depend on energy for their operation.


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Contemporary political institutions depend on energy for its maintenance and proper functioning: treatment and pumping of water, street lighting, health systems, communications, and especially production processes and transport systems, i.e., the flow of people and essential goods. Nations that have become richer and more developed are those that managed to master a set of innovative energy technologies, which impacted on their political, economic and productive systems, thus enabling the achievement of a high degree of capital accumulation and in life quality. Currently, these countries are highly industrialized and with extensive ability to decide in a sovereign way issues related to their own Energy System (Kerr Oliveira 2012).

Today, the index of average energy consumption is one of the most reliable variables to assess a population’s life quality and is highly correlated to a number of other economic and social indicators (Goldemberg 1998). The correlations between energy and development prompted the International Energy Agency to propose an analysis of countries using an Energy Development Index in order to complement the analysis with United Nations’ Human Development Index (IEA 2010). There is a need for programs aimed at expanding access to electricity, as increasing access to energy can be one of the fastest ways to improve life quality of a population, reducing poverty and inequality. Especially when it points out that about 2 billion people worldwide have no access to energy on a regular basis or affordable prices (IEA 2011).

The current world energy mix might be characterized as clearly concentrating wealth and highly exclusionary. Currently, between 4 and 5 million people die each year related to the lack of basic energy and sanitation infrastructure causes (IEA 2011). Kerr Oliveira (2012, 64) describes this as an “almost energy apartheid”. If the 3.5 billion poorest people in the world, which includes the 2.7 billion who lack modern energy sources for cooking, had the same pattern of energy consumption per capita as Canada, this would represent an increase in about three times the current global primary energy consumption (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Surely this fact points to major challenges for developing countries. Such restrained energy demand on global scale cannot be fully satisfied with the current scarce and finite energy sources. Hence, this also justifies the necessity of a large and deep global Energy Transition, which enables support for all mankind a pattern of life quality, consistent with the current technological stage.

Regional IntegrationRegional integration processes based on the economic integration of

productive chains, consumer markets and political integration between states in the same region and with common interests has been accelerated by the integration of infrastructure. For most states, regional integration is one of the few alternatives to expand its consumer market in order to sustain technological innovation and industrial production, in addition enabling the expansion of jobs for the available


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labor force. “Maintaining the current trends, it seems that the countries or regions that are not integrated into blocks are in serious danger of disappearing economically or even politically” (Kerr Oliveira 2012, 56).

Regional infrastructural integration of energy, transport and communications is a key step in this process, since it enables the integration of consumer markets, workforces, regional production chains. It also favors the building of common political institutions between countries of the same block. Ensure that decision-making for investment in energy infrastructure occur at the national level may not be sufficient when compared to the importance that such decisions can have on regional-continental level.

EnvironmentAny process of Energy Transition has also significant impacts to the environment.

The model based on fossil fuels, in particular oil, is in debate over the past four decades as it would be responsible for increasing environmental damage and emission of polluting gases into the atmosphere. Therefore, the discussion on which energy source will prevail is central to assess potential environmental impacts as well as the sustainability of the energy model in question.

In recent years, the environmental legal apparatus has significantly increased, besides the fact that there was an increase in world public opinion for the adoption of renewable and cleaner energy sources. Such sources would be central in mitigating the impacts of the increasing global demand for energy.

The reconciliation of exploitation/production of oil and environmental preservation requires specific instruments for environmental control in order to prevent and/or mitigate environmental damage from this activity. The potential environmental impacts of the oil industry varies, the most well-known being against the population associated with leaks in oil tankers and oil terminals, causing contamination and environmental degradation of oceans and seas. However, other environmental impacts are inherent in this activity, which are related to changes in water quality and contamination of marine sediments, interference in animal’s migration routes, interferences in coral reefs, mangroves, marine ecosystems, and social uses related to fishing activity.

2.4 ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

New sources of energy are at the core of the 21st century Energy Transition process. Thus, next section seeks to assess the potential and deficiencies of the main new forms of energy, especially those considered renewable and/or clean sources.


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Wind EnergyWind energy is achieved through the usage of wind to produce electricity

through aero-turbines. It is considered one of the cleanest forms of renewable energy available, since it does not emit air pollution throughout the electricity generation process. However, the construction of wind turbines requires extensive use of rare minerals that generate serious environmental impacts in its processing (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Nevertheless, wind energy is a promising complementary option as source of energy, since wind farms can be allocated both on land and at sea.

High costs for purchasing wind turbines is one of the biggest problems related to wind energy, due to the need of rare earth materials7 for producing turbines, as already pointed out. Although wind farms do not demand large areas for their construction, the market for purchasing aero turbines is concentrated in very few companies, which difficult the access to it around the world. After the global economic crisis of 2008, demand from developed countries for wind turbines felt, especially in Europe, thus diminishing its acquisition costs, which, in turn, allowed for an extension of the acquisition of these technologies by countries of Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America (Global Wind Energy Council 2012). Even though wind power cannot be used as the basis of the new energy mix, since even the entire wind power capacity was installed it would not be sufficient to meet world consumption., it can fulfill an important role as complement to other sources such as hydropower.

HydroelectricityHydroelectricity is produced by the kinetic energy of falling water in an area

of significant declivity. Such kinetic energy is converted into electricity by turbines that intercept the water flow. This energy form is considered clean since after moving the turbines, the water returns to its normal cycle without contaminants or residues derived from the energy producing process. In addition, the level of air pollutants emission is almost negligible. It is noteworthy that the energy potential of hydroelectric stations varies according to the size of the declivity, the magnitude and the efficiency of hydro turbines

According to the World Energy Council (2014), only about a third of the world’s hydroelectric potential has been used, corresponding to 17% of global energy consumption. The overall potential for hydropower production is still small forward to the expansion of world energy consumption; however there is still a great potential to be explored. The chart below shows the hydroelectric capacity installed by region. It can be noticed that East Asia and Europe, with over 20% of installed capacity, are those whose hydroelectric potential is better exploited. In

7 A rare earth mineral is a mineral which contains one or more rare earth elements as major metal constituents.


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this sense, Latin America and especially Africa, which had high economic growth in recent years, have yet vast hydroelectric potential to be harnessed, what may be fundamental for sustaining the growth in energy demand in these continents.

Image 2 - Hydropower Installed Capacity by Region.

Source: World Energy Council (2014).

Moreover, hydropower has advantages in regards to the possibility of its storage, which may be accomplished through the construction of large artificial dams. This differentiates it from other forms of energy production such as solar or wind, whose production does not allow storage. Also in these terms, when compared to other energy sources that also enable storage, such as biomass, hydroelectricity has a relatively lower cost (Kerr Oliveira 2012; Sauer and Carvalho 2013). However, the construction of artificial lakes and dams has environmental and social costs, especially due to the fact that the flooding of large areas implies the displacement of several species of animals and riparian populations, as well as the destruction of large green areas. On the other hand, the hydrological changes caused by water storage enables the construction of waterways, facilitating transport and logistics, which in some regions may even facilitate regional integration (World Energy Council 2014).

Tidal EnergyThe use of tidal energy to drive generators and produce electricity has great

potential of production in geographic terms. First, most of Earth’s surface is covered by oceans and seas (about two thirds of it), and, second, because the majority of the world population lives in coastal areas (World Energy Council 2014; Kerr Oliveira 2012). Energy can be obtained from the seas by harnessing tidal power, by the force of the waves and by temperature variations given the depth of the seas and oceans. Nevertheless, this form of energy is still incipient and undeveloped, which makes


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the financial costs of implementing and maintaining such energy parks very high.Analyzing the three previously mentioned ways of obtaining energy from the

sea, it can be seen that tides are a global resource that might be used through the building of dams that harness the tidal flow to release water through turbines, or by the exploitation of ocean currents. However, both technologies are still nascent: as the turbines should be installed at sea (under the sea, in large vertical towers, or suspended in vessels), financial costs are quite high. Nonetheless, energy from the waves is a renewable form of energy, with many significant advantages over other energy sources, such as the low environmental cost and the continuous flow of energy. Also, are the most widespread of use of maritime energy potential mode (Emerging Energy Research 2010; Kerr Oliveira 2012; South West MEP 2012; World Energy Council 2014).

Solar EnergySolar energy is a renewable form of energy considered ecologically viable and

with high productive potential. The two main mechanisms of obtaining energy through sunlight are photovoltaic collectors and thermal collectors. Photovoltaic collectors convert solar radiation directly into electricity without the use of engines. Nevertheless, they are not the most efficient way of harnessing solar energy. Thermal collectors, on the other hand, can be used for household heating, both in terms of home and water.

The main difficulty for using solar energy is the intermittence of the source, either daily or seasonal, which results in low efficiency in areas of high humidity or where there are many rainy days during the year, as well as in areas of high latitudes, where day length is shorter during a great part of the year (Kerr Oliveira 2012; World Energy Council 2014). In addition, the financial costs for the implementation and maintenance of solar collectors are still quite high, which impedes its spread. With the increased production of collectors, nonetheless, it might be possible that in the coming decades the cost of production will fall significantly.

Geothermal EnergyThe use of geothermal energy is the use of heat from inside the earth to

generate electricity. This source of energy is an alternative with great potential as it leverages a virtually endless source of energy to heat water, using the pressure of boiling water to move steam turbines, like a thermoelectric plant. Differently from thermal energy, it does not burn fuel, thus being considered a clean source of energy (World Energy Council 2014; British Petroleum 2014).

Among the problems of such energy source is its dependency on very specific geographical regions to be advantageous. In this sense, it is needed a source close to the surface, which means installing stations in regions with high volcanic or tectonic


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activity, that are geologically unstable. For this energy source being indeed feasible, it would require the development of technologies that allow the capture of this heat source from any point on Earth’s surface. Moreover, it would be necessary to develop techniques for drilling in ultra-deep areas of the earth’s crust, which is currently unviable (Kerr Oliveira 2012; British Petroleum 2014). It is estimated that currently the geothermal potential could supply 8.3% of global electricity consumption (World Energy Council 2014).

Biomass and BiofuelsBiomass refers to any organic matter, usually in solid form, which can be used

as fuel to produce electricity. In this sense, its origin may be from agriculture, lumber mills or waste, municipal or industrial. The decomposition of this biomass produces biogas, which is composed mostly of methane (Kerr Oliveira 2012; World Energy Council 2014).

The energy resources of biomass can be classified in several ways, however it should be recognized that the flows of biomass energy are associated with biofuels which, in turn, can be presented in three main groups, according to the origin of matter composed. Thus, there are biofuels from wood (dendrofuels), biofuels from non-forest plantation (agrofuels) and municipal waste (Nogueira and Lora 2003, 1).

Currently, biomass energy meets 10% of the world energy consumption (Schill, 2013). Of these 10%, about two thirds are produced in developing countries, which have sought to harness the potential of this energy source more intensively in the last decade. Biomass stands out as a renewable energy because it reuses discarded materials, including organic waste, which qualifies it as a source of environmentally sustainable energy.

Liquid biofuels - ethanol, biodiesel and vegetable oils - stand out because they are simple substitutes for hydrocarbon fuels, especially for transport and industry. In 2010, biofuels accounted about 3% of world consumption of fuels, with ethanol being responsible for 73% of such consumption, while biodiesel accounted for 27% (Schill 2013; World Energy Council 2014). Both ethanol and biodiesel can be produced from various plant species: cane sugar, corn, cassava, sunflower, etc. They have a huge potential for exploitation because all these different plants can be grown in different seasons, which reduces the negative effects of seasonality. Moreover, in ecological terms, biofuels are considered a renewable and environmentally sustainable source because they are biodegradable and their emission of pollutants is lower than those emitted by fossil fuels, besides the fact that planting areas also offset greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, biofuels have been considered a relevant alternative. Nonetheless, competition with the oil industry still hinders its rise (World Energy Council 2014).


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Nuclear PowerNuclear power is based on the use of heat from exothermic nuclear reactions

to produce electricity. Given the difficulties to ensure the safety of nuclear power plants, as well as the high financial costs involved in the production of this form of energy, nuclear power has never succeeded in establishing itself definitively on the basis of global energy. Although, this is a clean source of energy, and can contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Also, the costs of energy production are stable in the medium and long term, since it is possible to predict the energy production of a nuclear reactor. Figure 3 shows the installed capacity of nuclear power from uranium by region of the globe. Clearly, North America, Europe and East Asia are the main producers of such kind of energy, since the costs of installing a nuclear power plant are quite high (World Energy Council 2014).

Image 3 - Uranium Installed Capacity by Region.

Source: World Energy Council 2014.

The possibility of nuclear energy becoming an alternative in the Energy Transition lies in the possible use of more conventional radioactive elements, other than uranium and plutonium, or in changes in the production process of this energy. Uranium and plutonium can be used for purposes other than the production of energy, i.e., for war purposes. Moreover, uranium reserves are small compared with world demand, and are concentrated in specific regions such as Oceania, which accounts for about a third of the world reserves (World Nuclear Association 2014). Another problem is the residue derived from the uranium enrichment process since nuclear waste is highly dangerous, either by security issues, or for environmental reasons.

In this sense, the use of metals such as thorium can prove to be a paradigm


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change in nuclear energy production. The use of thorium as nuclear fuel dates from the mid-1950s and 1960s. Thorium is safer than uranium and plutonium, it is not efficient for war purposes, it has abundant reserves and the reactor needed for its use is smaller, which can reduce the cost of installing a nuclear power plant (Kleina 2011; Kerr Oliveira 2012). The nuclear waste originated from it would be inert after a time, which reduces the environmental impact and the possibility of it being used for military purposes. Although there are plants that have advanced in the use of thorium, reactors are still incipient, pointing that this is not an immediate alternative for possible energy shortages (Hamman 2013).

In terms of nuclear energy production process, the great revolution would be the use of nuclear fusion as a mechanism for obtaining electricity. In theoretical terms, the process of nuclear fusion can generate virtually endless amounts of energy without producing air pollution or highly dangerous nuclear waste (Kerr Oliveira 2012). This mechanism is based on the generation of energy by replicating what happens inside the sun and in thermonuclear weapons, such as hydrogen bombs. Although this technology has not been developed significantly, there are large investments for research in the area (World Energy Council 2014; Kerr Oliveira 2012).

HydrogenThe use of hydrogen as a fuel is one of the most promising alternatives in

terms of energy production for the future. However, its production, transport, storage and conversion to a form of usable energy are still unresolved problems. Hydrogen has the advantage of being much more flammable than fossil fuels and do not producing toxic waste, since the fuel burns completely, generating only water vapor as residual waste, i.e., thus being a clean source of energy. In potential terms, it could be used in various stages of the production processes, replacing petroleum efficiently, which lead several authors to believe in that hydrogen will be the central element in the transition to the post-oil era (Geller 2002; Kerr Oliveira 2012; World Energy Council 2014). The most serious problem for generating energy from hydrogen comes from the fact that it is not found in pure state at nature. For the production of the fuel it is necessary to use large amounts of energy, which makes its use disadvantageous. This way, hydrogen cannot be considered an alternative in the short and medium term, as production costs are still quite high.

Electromagnetic Energy and Virtually Endless Radiation (light, microwaves, space radiation)

The use of electromagnetic energy and space radiation is directly linked to the space domain, since outer space has virtually endless energy in the form of microwave radiation. There is already certain capacity for the transformation of microwave radiation into electricity, yet it is still not an economically feasible technology since it largely


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depends on the use of semiconductor materials of high costs (Kerr Oliveira 2012).There are projects that seek to develop a solar energy collector to be installed

on the space, capable of emitting concentrated microwave to the ground (Lee 2013). The project is still in its experimental stage and the first prototype might be launched in 2025, but questions as how to capture the microwaves are still unresolved. If the project succeeds, it will reduce the energy costs of KW/h in about 15% (Murphy, 2012). However, the use of this form of energy increases the disparity between developed and developing countries, as it depends on the control of space technologies that are too costly.

Expansion of Energy EfficiencyIncreasing energy efficiency is one of the strategies to counter the challenges

derived from the Energy Transition. Energy efficiency relates to improvements in certain sectors of the energy system (generation, distribution or consumption), or gains in efficiency that involve substantial changes in the energy mix (the energy sector, industry or the transportation sector).

Since it may expand the energy capacity of a country, increasing energy efficiency is considered a “new energy feature”, since it helps to reduce dependence on primary energy resources (World Energy Council 2013). According to Kerr Oliveira (2012), investments in energy efficiency can be divided into two types. The first, in the whole economy of a country (relationship between GDP/energy intensity), and the second is related to specific technologies for increase efficiency in generation, distribution or consumption of energy. The great advantage in the expansion of energy efficiency is that there is no time limit for such measures to be employed, and the cost can be diluted over time.

Unconventional OilAgainst the grain of renewable energies is the use of “new” forms of fossil

fuels8 as an alternative to the Energy Transition, especially non-conventional oil, which corresponds to the ultra-heavy oil, oil sands and shale (Johnson, Crawford and Bunge 2004; Kerr Oliveira 2012). The ultra-heavy oil is a form denser than normal; the main global reserves are in the Americas, particularly South America. Commercial exploitation of all these unconventional forms of oil has higher costs than conventional oil and they do not constitute a sustainable alternative energy to the environment, since they are even more polluting than conventional oil9 (Kerr Oliveira 2012; World Energy Council 2014). Moreover, it deeps energy

8 Besides the unconventional (ultra-heavy) oil shale and oil sands, these new forms include gasification or liquefaction of coal.9 On the other hand, they resize the world energy panorama by introducing the possibility of oil not being anymore a finite fossil resource.


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asymmetries that exist between countries, as the world’s reserves are concentrated in a few countries more than conventional oil for example.

2.5 THE WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL AND THE ENERGY TRANSITION

The world is currently facing huge and unprecedented uncertainties in relation to safeguarding a safe Energy Transition. States and leaders are faced with three major challenges: 1) significantly increasing the supply of energy to all humankind; 2) replacing the current fossil fuel-based energy matrix array for a cleaner, more abundant and less expensive one; and 3) accomplishing this endeavor without the occurrence of major conflicts or wars between states vying for control of finite energy resources.

Image 4 - Three key interconnected policy areas are necessary to support the transition to sustainable energy

Source: World Energy Council 2013 (a)

From the study of the Trilemma Energy, World Energy Council (2013) produced a report with scenarios for the situation of global energy in 2050 and launched 10 key messages:


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1) Energy system complexity will increase by 2050.2) Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply.3) The energy mix in 2050 will mainly be fossil based.4) Regional priorities differ: there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solutions to the energy trilemma.5) The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450 ppm target without unacceptable carbon prices.6) A low-carbon future is not only linked to renewable: carbon capture, utilization and storage (CC (U) S) is important and consumer behavior needs changing.7) (CC (U) S) technology, solar energy and energy storage are the key uncertainties up to 2050.8) Balancing the Energy Trilemma means making difficult choices.9) Functioning energy markets require investments and regional integration to the deliver benefits to all consumers.10) Energy policy should ensure that energy and carbon markets deliver.(WEC 2013(a))

Therefore, the Ministers present at the meeting of the World Energy Council will be faced with many questions on the subject of Energy Transition. At what level of the energy transition process we find ourselves at the moment? Until when the current energy model will be viable in economic, environmental and social terms? How to solve international security problems inherent in energy issues? What measures must be adopted to overcome the socio-economic and environmental predicaments? How to promote regional integration processes that optimize the energy security of all? What forms of energy generation should guide the nascent model? The answers to these questions are central to the direction that the Energy Transition process will take as well as to its future impacts.

3 PREVIOUS INTERNATIONAL ACTIONS

In 2002, the United Nations created the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD). This summit discussed the relationship between poverty reduction, energy access, energy security, energy transition and climate change. UN-Energy was created by the UN two years after that: a mechanism on the energy field in which different UN agencies can relate to assure cohesion and interconnection when it comes to energy matters. Besides that, it also serves as a mean to support countries on their transitions to a sustainable scenario. UN-Energy is organized around three major themes, each of them being coordinated by two United Nations organizations. One of them is “energy access”, which is coordinated by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank. Another theme is “renewable energies”, coordinated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the United Nations Environment


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Programme (UNEP). The last one is “energy efficiency”, which is led by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (UN-Energy 2014).

During the petroleum crisis, from 1973 to 1974, the International Energy Agency, IEA, was created, as a reaction from developed countries to the oil crisis and the OPEC. Back then, it aimed to help countries coordinating their reactions to great interruptions on oil supply. Nowadays, IEA’s main focus is directed to four major areas: energy security, economic development, environmental awareness and global engagement on energy issues (IEA 2014).

The World Energy Council (WEC), by its turn, is the most important network of countries and enterprises that look for debates related to the energy system, its sustainability and stability. The Council exists since 1923 and it is strongly supported by the UN. In the beginning, the WEC essentially gathered specialists in order to deal with multiple energy issues. However, with time, it evolved to a world forum seeking for a future where sustainable energy is a possible picture. WEC’s intention is to work over energy matters in a most expanded way, therefore being a most inclusive organism. This means that all the stakeholders on every energy deployment can be part of the discussions and the decision makings: NGOs, enterprises, universities, governments and so on. There are around 3000 registered members, from over 90 countries. WEC’s major event is the World Energy Congress, the most influent energy summit of the world. Twenty-two congresses have already taken place since 1924, the last one hosted in 2013 by Daegu, South Korea. WEC outstands for its enormous amount of studies, with publications of great technical and informational levels. The World Energy Issues Monitor, from 2014, is one of the most recent of it, covering the current energy agenda as well as its evolution over time. The World Energy Trilemma: time to get it real – the agenda for change is another of WEC’s papers, which seeks to support policy makers and the energy industry on facing the three main energy challenges: energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability. Finally, the World Energy Scenarios: composing energy futures to 2050, is the result of another intensive research, and it shows prognostics on energy consumption and all the difficulties that will be faced on the next decades (WEC 2014).

4 BLOC POSITIONS

The United States of America is at the center of discussions about global energy transition. Historically, it is among the major producers and consumers of energy in the world, occupying the actual second position. Moreover, it was involved in wars whose background was the competition for energy resources, as occurred in Iraq in 1991 and 2003 and Libya in 2011. In recent years, the country has faced a


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debate on the future of its energy, which is based on the use of hydrocarbon resources, especially oil and natural gas. Fossil fuels account for about 82% of total energy consumption in the country. On the one hand, the US has deepened its dependence on fossil resources, especially after the discovery of vast reserves of shale gas. On the other, it has invested in the so-called “Green Revolution”, under which it seeks to expand the use of energy derived from renewable or clean sources. This way, the US has adopted a conservative position with respect to the energy transition model. Major US initiatives to address the challenges of energy transition are related to the pursuit in reducing its external vulnerability. In this sense, it has been seeking to diversify oil suppliers, minimizing the importance of the Middle East in its imports of this feature, use the shale gas - despite possible environmental implications - and invest in highly expensive projects in financial terms to try to get virtually infinite energy especially by, for example, capture energy in outer space. I.e., the initiatives have been aimed at resolving the dilemma internally (EIA 2014; DOE 2014).

Canada is one of the world’s five largest energy producers and is an especially significant producer of conventional and unconventional oil, natural gas, and hydroelectricity. Its economy is relatively energy-intensive when compared to other industrialized countries. Canada is the third largest producer of natural gas and controls the third-largest amount of proven oil reserves in the world, after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela (EIA 2014). It stands out as the largest foreign supplier of energy to the United States. But Canada is profoundly dependent on the United States, since virtually all of its crude oil exports are directed to US refineries. However, economic and political considerations are leading Canada to consider ways to diversify its trading partners, especially by expanding ties with emerging markets in Asia. Canada’s unconventional oil sands are a significant contributor to the recent and expected growth in the world’s liquid fuel supply. Also, the country is the world’s third-largest producer of dry natural gas and the source of most US natural gas imports. Moreover, Canada is a net exporter of electricity to the United States, and most of its energy needs are met by hydroelectricity. Only China and Brazil produce more hydroelectricity. Conventional thermal power plants satisfy most of Canada’s electricity needs not met by hydroelectricity (EIA 2014; Canada Energy 2014).

Mexico is a major non-OPEC oil producer and is among the largest sources of US oil imports. Since Mexico’s total oil production had been declining substantially, it had a direct impact on the country’s economic output and on the government’s fiscal health. Mexico’s total energy consumption in 2012 consisted mostly of oil (53%), followed by natural gas (36%) (EIA 2014). Natural gas is increasingly replacing oil as a feedstock in power generation; however, Mexico is a net importer of natural gas. Mexico nationalized its oil sector in 1938, and PEMEX was created as the sole oil operator in the country. PEMEX is the largest company in Mexico


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and one of the largest oil companies in the world. However, in December 2013, the Mexican government enacted constitutional reforms ending PEMEX’s monopoly on the oil and gas sector and opening it to greater foreign investment. The United States received approximately 71% of Mexico’s oil exports and Mexico was the destination for 44% of U.S. exports of motor gasoline (EIA 2014). This way, it is relevant to note that Mexico is believed to possess considerable hydrocarbon resources in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico that have not yet been developed. Despite Mexico has no international oil pipeline connection, theft of oil from pipelines by organized crime groups has become increasingly problematic. Most of Mexico’s electricity generation comes from fossil-fueled power plants, while hydroelectricity supplied about 11% of Mexico’s electricity generation in 2013 (EIA 2014; SENER 2014).

Brazil is the eighth largest consumer and tenth largest producer of primary energy in the world (British Petroleum 2013). Total primary energy consumption in Brazil has increased by more than one third in the past decade because of sustained economic growth. Moreover, Brazil has made great strides in increasing its total energy production, particularly oil and ethanol. The largest share of Brazil’s total energy consumption comes from oil and other liquid fuels (47%), followed by hydroelectricity (35%) and natural gas (8%), and hydropower accounted for 80% of the electricity generation (EIA 2014; MME 2014). More than 90% of Brazil’s oil production is offshore in very deep water and consists of mostly heavy grades. In 2011, Brazil’s liquid fuels consumption surpassed its production (EIA 2014). Petrobras - the dominant participant in Brazil’s oil sector - plans to increase its Brazilian refining capacity, since the country imports great part of its refined oil. Brazil’s pre-salt announcements immediately transformed the nature and the focus of the country’s oil sector, and the potential impact of the discoveries upon world oil markets is vast. Besides, the pre-salt areas are estimated to contain sizable natural gas reserves, which if proven could increase Brazil’s reserves by 50%. Unites States, China and India are the major importers of Brazilian crude oil. However, the country maintains strong energy links with the neighboring, such as Paraguay, Argentina, Bolivia, Venezuela and Uruguay, especially in hydropower, oil and natural gas. In this sense, Brazil is expected to deepen ties with the region, which if integrated, could achieve the status of great energy superpower in the XXI century (Kerr Oliveira 2012).

Bolivia is economically dependent on its energy production, especially natural gas, which represents 50% of its exports (IMF 2012). The energy consumption is also based on hydrocarbons, which represent 80% of the total, the remainder being waste and biomass, hydroelectricity and other renewable features (EIA 2014). Bolivia is an oil importing country, however, it is key to the supply of natural gas in South America, mainly via pipelines into Brazil and Argentina. The state company YPFB has sought new partnerships for investment in new areas for natural gas exploration in


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the country. Being a poor country, 2.2 million Bolivians do not have adequate access to electricity (IEA 2012). In this sense, as well as Paraguay, the country depends on foreign investment and especially the integration with neighboring countries in order to diversify the economy, strengthen the development and reduce regional disparities. Besides the economic similarity, like Bolivia, Paraguay has a central geostrategic position in South America. The two countries have even clashed in the Chaco War (1932-1935) to compete in a region that previously had been thought to have oil. It was the geopolitical centrality that led Paraguay to negotiate with Brazil for building the binational Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant, one of the world largest and which accounts for about 75% of the energy consumed in Paraguay (Itaipu Binacional 2012). The country has no energy reserves of hydrocarbons, however, hydropower exports to Brazil guarantees significant contribution of resources, since the country does not consume all it could claim in the division of Itaipu’s production.

Colombia has seen a great increase in oil, natural gas, and coal production in recent years after the implementation of a series of regulatory reforms. The government implemented a partial privatization of state oil company Ecopetrol (Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos S.A.) in an attempt to revive its upstream oil industry. However, after nearly a half-decade of relatively secure operations, attacks on oil and natural gas pipelines have increased. Expanded oil production will require discoveries of reserves and improvements to infrastructure safety. Colombia is self-sufficient in natural gas supply and recently began exporting to neighboring Venezuela. In 2011, the country was the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world. Besides, 60% of Colombia’s electricity generation is derived from hydropower (EIA 2014; Colombia Energía 2014).

Argentina is the largest producer of natural gas and the fourth largest oil producer in South America (British Petroleum 2013). The domestic demand for energy has grown rapidly in the country, however, the increase in oil and natural gas production has not met this demand, which makes Argentina dependent on imports of these resources, especially refined liquids. Together, natural gas and petroleum match for about 86% of energy consumption. A smaller share of the country’s total energy consumption can be attributed to nuclear, coal, and hydropower (EIA 2014). In order to counter the energy bottleneck, the Argentine government began investing in tariff incentives to companies that do partnership with the state owned ENARSA. In May 2012, the Argentine government, claiming under investment in the country hydrocarbon sector, passed legislation confirming the expropriation of the YPF, the largest oil producer in the country (EIA 2014). Moreover, Argentina has sought to strengthen the proposed energy integration in South America, as it is currently part of a network of regional transmission of natural gas, which passes through Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. Also, Argentina maintains interconnections in electricity with Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. In this sense, the focus on


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regional integration can guarantee the country a stronger position in the context of global energy transition (Kerr Oliveira 2012).

In recent decades, China has experienced a great economic growth, which has increased energy demands of the country, which went from an exporter of oil to one of the largest importers in the world. In the last decade, China has become the world’s largest consumer of energy, a situation which has brought many challenges for the country. Especially because the energy mix of the country is mostly centered on fossil energy resources, about 90%, mainly coal, that meets 69% of total consumption (EIA 2014). This scenario brings challenges to energy security of the country, which has sought to respond to this situation basically in two ways. On the one hand, the country has been trying to expand investments in renewable energy sources such as hydroelectricity, and, secondly, to increase the integration of infrastructure pipelines with neighbors such as Kazakhstan and Russia. Both measures aim to minimize its external vulnerability, which imports most of its oil from the Middle East, a region of high political instability (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Moreover, the country has also sought to invest in nuclear energy, following a trend that has prevailed in East Asia, especially in Republic of Korea and Japan. These two countries were using nuclear energy as a major alternative to reduce dependence on imported resources energy (the Republic of Korea imports about 85% and Japan about 86% of energy consumed), especially oil, as it does not possess significant energy reserves. However, after the nuclear accident in Fukushima in 2011, many of the projects to build new plants were suspended or postponed, and has been gradually resumed (Brites 2014). The two countries have also been investing in alternative sources like tidal, yet it still does not represent a great energy source.

India is among the top energy consumers in the world; however, the country still suffers from enormous difficulties to supply the growing demand. The basis of the country’s energy mix is coal, which accounts for just over 40% of total consumption (EIA 2014). Nonetheless, the very significant use of solid biomass (about 23%), especially wood and trash, shows that the country still lacks a system of modern energy generation, as well as inefficient use of wood waste and is highly toxic and lethal, especially to be used in poorer areas in the home environment (Kerr Oliveira 2012). India is also an importer of oil, and has sought to diversify its partnerships, since actually it has more than 60% of its imports from the Middle East. The great problem, however, is the lack of access to modern energy sources, with 25% of the population having no access to energy. Similarly, Pakistan has suffered energy shortages, which leaves about 30% of the population without regular access to electricity. The country’s energy mix is based on natural gas (about 48%), however, the country lacks a solid network of gas pipeline infrastructure, which has restricted the industrial capacity of the country (The Dioplomat 2013). This way, the country has sought to ally themselves with neighbors in the quest for


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building projects of common pipeline. I.e., has focused on regional integration as an alternative for energy deficiencies.

Over the past decade, Indonesia has increased by approximately 50% its energy consumption. The country that historically has consolidated itself as an exporter of energy resources, has been trying to reorient its production to the domestic market. The country is a leading exporter of liquefied natural gas and coal. Coal have been the energy source whose use has grown more in recent years, becoming the second leading source only behind oil. The country still stands out for being at the heart of disputes over control of routes, since its narrow territorial waters spend much of the flow of energy resources directed to Asia (Brites 2014). In relation to renewable and clean sources, the country has a high rate of utilization of geothermal energy and has been investing in biofuels (EIA 2014).

The Russian Federation is one of the biggest energy powers in the world. It is the second largest natural gas producer and the third largest oil producer in the world, a condition that makes it one of the leading exporters of world energy (EIA 2014). Its economic growth in recent years has led the expansion of energy exports, accounting for about 70% of total exports of the country (EIA 2014). Besides the energy derived from oil, Russia stands out from nuclear energy, ranking third in the world in production of this form of energy. The abundance of energy resources make the country not to invest substantially in new forms of energy, which makes its energy mix concentrated around fossil fuels, especially natural gas. Another consequence of this scenario is derived from disputes linked to the geopolitics of pipelines, which creates enormous pressure on its borders, which often become zones of disputes and actions of neighbors’ separatist groups (IEA 2014).

Kazakhstan, an oil producer since 1911, has the second largest oil reserves as well as the second largest oil production among the former Soviet republics after Russia. The key to its continued growth in liquids production from this level will be the development of its giant Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan fields. Kazakhstan is land-locked and lies a great distance from international oil markets. The lack of access to a seaport makes the country dependent mainly on pipelines to transport its hydrocarbons to world markets. It is also a transit country for pipeline exports from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan is a Caspian Sea littoral state. The legal status of the Caspian area remains unresolved, mainly driven by a lack of agreement on whether the Caspian is a sea or a lake. Until all states agree on a definition, legal status of the area will remain unresolved. The vast majority of Kazakhstan’s electricity generation comes from coal-fired power plants, concentrated in the north of the country near the coal producing regions (EIA, 2013).

Ukraine has a strategic position in close proximity with Russia, which explains its importance for trade in natural gas and oil. There are two major pipeline systems that transport natural gas from Russia to Western Europe through Ukraine: the


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Bratstvo (Brotherhood) and Soyuz (Union) pipelines. In the past, disputes between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas supplies, prices, and debts have resulted in interruptions to Russia’s natural gas exports through Ukraine, with the latest one occurring in 2009 (EIA 2014). Most of Ukraine’s primary energy consumption is fueled by natural gas (about 40%), coal (about 28%), and nuclear (about 18%) (EIA 2014). Only a relatively small portion of the country’s total energy consumption is accounted for by petroleum and renewable energy sources. More than half of the country’s electric supply comes from its uranium and coal resources. Fossil fuel sources (46%) and hydropower (6%) generate the remaining of Ukraine’s electricity (EIA 2014; IEA 2014).

The United Kingdom is the largest producer of oil and the second largest producer of natural gas in the EU. The Kingdom established many targets for renewable energies, but oil is still the most important source for its energy consumption. The majority of the electricity produced in the UK is generated from fossil fuels, essentially coal. Renewable energy, however, accounted in 2013 for more than 15% of the total generation. Renewable energy use more than tripled from 2000 to 2012 (EIA 2014). The UK is also planning a decarbonization of its energy system – the Low Carbon Transition Plan -, seeking for declining on over 80% greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

With its well-designed policies for renewable energy, energy efficiency and climate change, Denmark is a strong voice internationally on these matters. Danish policies are based on strong governmental institutions with very clear obligations and responsibilities. The Danish Renewable Energy Action Plan expects almost 52% of total electricity consumption to be met by renewable energy sources by 2020 (EWEA 2011). Almost 60% of this will be wind, and biomass mainly will make up for the rest. Its long-term goal is to become a sustainable low-carbon society, completely independent of fossil fuels use by 2050. The energy solutions leading to this goal include building green transport and promotion of smart grids. Danish government is to implement a series of actions aiming not only to achieve these goals but also to secure Denmark’s position as world leader in energy, climate and environmental technology (IEA 2011).

Comparatively to other European countries, energy use in Turkey is low. In the past years, the Turkish main focus has been on improving energy efficiency in order to reduce pollution and assure energy supply security for its economy. The country faces many energy policy challenges, since it needs reforms on the power and natural gas sector, and also an urgent decrease on energy-related CO2 emissions – which have been increasing since the 90’s. With growing economy and energy demand, the government seeks for investments in natural gas and electricity infrastructure, and mostly for a diversification in its energy mix (EIA 2014, IEA 2009).

Oil represents about one-third of France’s primary energy consumption. The


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country has little domestic natural gas production, importing it from other European countries, and the government has banned the use of hydraulic fracturing10. Nuclear power is the main source of French electricity generation, and the country is the second largest producer of biofuels in Europe, after Germany (EIA 2014). The French have recently started to worry about energy transition and further discuss it in both international and domestic forums, looking for partnerships in that matter with Italy and Germany. The energy transition strategy is based on energy efficiency and sobriety and on priority to renewable energies (Ministère de l’Écologie, du Développement durable et de l’Énergie 2012). They believe that any energy policy must balance between security of supply, cost and sustainability, in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75% until 2050(Le Roux 2012, Gautier 2014). French policies aims on securing its huge nuclear power, reducing emissions within the transport and buildings sectors, and on the growing regionalization of the energy sector in Europe – by expanding infrastructure and interconnections with neighboring countries to stabilize electricity and gas markets. France faces multiple challenges, since its energy development strategy is very ambitious and expensive (IEA 2009). The country believes that the energy future must, therefore, be thought on a common European space, in which France has a key role to play (Le Roux 2012).

The Netherlands is the second-largest European producer and exporter of natural gas, following Norway. In 2012, petroleum accounted for more than a half of the country’s energy consumption, and natural gas for 36%. Most of its energy is generated by fossil fuel-fired power plants, but more than 15% is generated from renewable resources, mainly biomass, waste and wind (EIA 2014). Netherlands is very important to the region due to its integrated supply chains11, but it is still one of the economies most intensive on fossil-fuels and CO2 in Western Europe. The Dutch government is prioritizing actions to support sustainable economic growth, and the country can benefit a lot on this matter from expanding interconnections with neighboring countries (IEA 2014).

Back in 2012, Germany was the largest energy consumer in Europe, and the eighth in the world, what gave it huge influence over the European energy sector. It was also the fifth larger producer of nuclear energy, and petroleum still was its main source of energy. However, the country is also a preeminent regional and world leader when it comes to renewable energy use: it is the largest European producer of non-hydro renewable electricity – being solar and wind the biggest sources (EIA 2014).Germany has been working on an energy transition strategy since the 1980’s, in a program called Energiewende. The first German publication on this matter called on the total abandonment of nuclear and petroleum energy. Goals were

10 A drilling technique used to extract shale oil and gas resources (EIA 2014)11 It pipeline system connects the country with the United Kingdom, Germany and Belgium (EIA 2014).


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elaborated on greenhouse gas reductions, energy efficiency and raise of renewable energy use (The Economist 2012, Morris and Pehnt 2012). Yet, this German energy transition is facing some critics, because it seems that the country cannot accomplish to eliminate completely fossil-fuel and nuclear dependence on its own: these ambitious objectives affect European neighbors, and therefore a strategy must start to be thought on a regional level (Eddy 2014, The Economist 2012, EurActiv 2014). The German Energywiende has impacted especially Poland, effecting grid stability and Polish electricity markets. Through the last years, Poland’s main priority has been energy security. Although it had some improvements on increasing the country’s share of renewables, it is still far from being put firmly on a low-carbon path. In 2011, coal accounted for 55% of Polish primary energy supply and 92% of electricity generation12, which makes the country face a plenty of climate and environmental challenges. The strength of the coal industry, the abundance of coal in the region and its subsequent competitive relative price are major obstacles for Poland to follow the environmental measures proposed by the EU (EIA 2013). Poland has to improve its energy efficiency and its efforts on diversifying the country’s energy mix in order to decarbonize it (IEA 2011).

The National Renewable Energy Action Plan of Italy has set the goal to achieve a 23% share of renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy by 2020. However, the country relies heavily on imports to meet its energy needs (EIA 2013) and still is strongly dependent on fossil fuels. Throughout this century, Italy’s greenhouse gas emissions grew and the Italian government did not put major efforts to develop energy infrastructure (IEA 2009). Also, the country’s rate of wind energy installations has decreased 65% in 2013 (Purchas and Gimon 2014), proving that Italy still has some great challenges to face towards a clean and renewable energy future.

Considering all of that, it can be perceived that energy policy decisions made in one EU country may affect the other EU member states as well. The transition might be successful only if it is embedded in a broader European framework. Coordination and cooperation among European countries is therefore the solution to avoid conflict (Hockenos 2014).

In Africa, progresses on sustainable energy models are much more discrete than in the most developed countries of the world. South Africa is the African country with the largest energy consumption, and it relies on its large coal deposits to meet most of its energy needs, since it has limited reserves of oil and natural gas. The country holds around 95% of Africa’s total coal reserves. The coal industry is, however, responsible for serious air, land and water pollution. South African shale gas resources are very notable, though this industry is still very small in the country. In 2012, renewables were responsible for only 1% of primary energy consumption’s

12 Poland is the second largest coal producer in Europe, behind Germany (EIA 2013).


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totality. This strong dependence on coal made South Africa the principal dioxide emitter of the continent (EIA 2013).

The largest oil producer in Africa is Nigeria, and the country has also the continent’s largest proven natural gas reserves. Nigerian electricity generation per capita is one of the lowest of the world, and its energy sector faces severe problems due to an aged infrastructure and low maintenance. Oil spills and natural gas flaring are responsible for generating brutal environmental problems, and pollution by the oil companies are seriously damaging air, soil and water. Traditional biomass and waste account for more than 80% of the country’s total energy consumption, and transition for a clean and renewable energy system is still very far away from Nigerian reality (EIA 2013).

Meanwhile, Algeria is the largest natural gas producer and the second largest oil producer in Africa. Its economy is heavily reliant on the hydrocarbon sector, which is responsible for almost all export earnings. Currently, almost a hundred percent of the country’s electricity generation comes from fossil-fuel sources. The country consumes a very insignificant amount of hydropower, coal and traditional biomass. However, unlike its neighboring countries, the Algerian government has recently created a program which aims on reducing this fossil-fuel dependence and producing around 40% of domestic consumed electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030 (EIA 2013).

Middle Eastern countries also face some energy issues due to some political instability and infrastructure hindrances. The situation of the energy sector in Syria, for example, is quite alarming. It has been in constant turmoil since the beginning of the hostilities between government and opposition forces within the Arab Spring framework. Both oil and natural gas production have decreased drastically since 2011, not only because of the conflict but also because of the sanctions imposed by the US and the EU. Energy infrastructure has been seriously damaged, and the country is facing challenges on the supply of heat and fuel oil to its citizens. Talks over a clean and renewable energy transition are very distant and unlikely to take place in the Syrian government as long as the crisis continues, and it is improbable that the energy sector might recover in the short-term analysis (EIA 2014).

Iran is the third largest natural gas producer in the world and it has the second largest reserves in the world. When it comes to oil, it has the fourth largest proven reserves. International sanctions have been compelling Iran to redefine its energy system, and the lack of investment and technology is harmful for the sector. Natural gas and petroleum represent together 98% of Iranian total energy consumption. Energy wastage is one of the country’s most significant energy issues, since it recycles much less energy than the average of most countries (EIA 2013).

Almost one-fifth of the world’s oil proven reserves is located in Saudi Arabia, the largest producer and exporter of petroleum in the world. Although it has


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significant reserves of natural gas, its production remains extremely limited. The electricity demand in the country has been growing in the past years, for what the government plans to increase its generating capacity. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is also the largest consumer of petroleum of the Middle East. In 2013, large investments were made on renewable energy, in accord with the Saudi goal of generating around a third of the Kingdom’s energy demands using renewables, especially solar, nuclear, geothermal and wind power. Still, it remains questionable whether a country so economically dependent on petroleum will be able to perform such a transition (EIA 2013, Arab News 2013).

Israel is not one of the major producers of oil or natural gas, and it has always been an importer of the latter, but this scenario may change in the next decade. Over the past years, some significant natural gas resources were discovered in the country. This fact may transform it from major importer to great exporter of this resource, which will become the country’s primary energy resource. The growth of the natural gas sector is even very likely to reduce Israeli’s consumption of coal, which is mainly used to generate electricity (EIA 2014). Besides natural gas, the energy regime that is emerging in Israel, alongside with the already on-going socio-technical transition, includes also oil shale, biomass, nuclear, wind and solar energy as alternatives to oil and coal (Teschner and Paavola 2013, Ministry of National Infrastructures, Energy and Water Resources n.d.). Israelis believe that the energy transition must be integrated with transitions in other sectors, such as technology and industry (Teschner, McDonald, et al. 2012).

Qatar is the largest explorer of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in the world. Like its neighbors, this country also relies on the energy sector to sustain its economy. The country does not pursue any coal or nuclear generating capacity, and all of Qatar’s current generating capacity is natural gas-fired. Some discussions about potential solar power projects took place recently, and intensive research is being made in order to help Qatar and other Gulf countries to develop a low-carbon energy transition (EIA 2014, Meltzer, Hultman and Langley 2014).

The energy sector is heavily based on oil in Iraq, which has the fifth largest crude oil reserves in the world and it is the second larger producer of crude oil in OPEC. However, even with these huge reserves, oil production has been below the potential levels, due to infrastructure and political constraints. The country has plans on tripling the generating capacity by the end of 2015. Around 90% of its energy needs are met with petroleum, and the rest is supplied by natural gas and hydropower. Iraq’s hydrocarbon resources have not been completely exploited yet, and just a part of its fields is in development (EIA 2013). The government is looking on developing solar and wind plants in the next years, and by 2016, it plans on generating 400MW of its electricity from renewable sources - what represent about 2% of the total generating capacity. It may be a tiny step, but it shows a growing


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preoccupation on pursuing a cleaner energy mix (Iraq-Business News 2013).

5 QUESTIONS TO PONDER

1. What are the major challenges faced by emerging countries and how could they meet their energy needs in a “Post-Oil” Era and how would they deal with the economic and technological costs involved in such scenario? 2. How can countries prevent themselves from this transition’s impacts on International Security?3. To what extent can this Energy Transition effectively impact the current processes of Regional Integration?4. Is there any way for this changes to occur without leading to interstate conflitcts and wars over control of energy resources?5. Which energy model corresponds to your country’s objectives and goals? What should be the nature of the expected change in the global energy mix?

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