energy sector in the period 1990 to 2005 analysis and consequences dr. sc. goran granić et al...
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ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES
Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al
Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar
ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES
CONTENT
1. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS2. GEO-DIVISION OF THE WORLD (FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER)3. WORLD POPULATION4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT5. ENERGY DEMAND6. ENERGY PRODUCTION7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT10. ENERGY EFFICIENCY11. NEW TECHNOLOGIES12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING14. ENERGY TRANSPORTATION15. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION16. OBSERVATIONS
1. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
EUROPE: BREAKDOWN OF USSR, YUGOSLAVIA, CZECOSLOVAKIA, FALL
OF COMMUNIST SYSTEM WAR IN CROATIA, BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA, KOSOVO AND RUSSIA (CHECHNIA)
DEMOCRATIC AND ECONOMIC TRANSITION OF EAST
EUROPEAN COUNTRIES EUROPEAN UNION ENLARGEMENT
MIDDLE EAST WAR IN KUWAIT
TALIBAN REGIME IN AFGANISTAN OVERTHROWN
SADDAM HUSSEIN IN IRAQ OVERTHROWN
SOUTH AMERICA POLITICAL INSTABILITY OF SOME COUNTRIES
USA TERRORIST ATTACK 11 SEPTEMBER 2001
AFRICA LOCAL WARS AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN A LARGE NUMBER
OF COUNTRIES
CRIMES IN RWANDA
1. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
CHINA POLITICAL CHANGES PAVED THE WAY TO MARKET-
ORIENTED ECONOMY RETURN OF HON KONG
ISRAEL AND PALESTINE CONTINUITY OF CONFLICT AND MILITARY ACTIONS
GLOBAL PROBLEM TERRORISM POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND WAR
ACTIVITIES IN THE ENERGY PRODUCTION AREAS
CROATIAN INDEPENDENCE, TRANSITION AND START OF THE EU FULL MEMBERSHIP NEGOTIATIONS
2. GEO - DIVISION OF THE WORLD
o OECD N. America - Canada, Mexicoand USA
o OECD Pacific - Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand
o OECD Europe - Austria, Belgium, Czech R., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Island, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom
o Non-OECD Europe - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulagaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Gibraltar, FYROM, Malta, Roumenia, Serbia and Montenegro and Slovenia
o Former USSR - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belorussia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghisia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldavia, Russia, Tadzhikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
o Middle East - Bahrein, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
o Latin America – countries of Central and South America excl. Mexico
o Other Asia – Asian countries excl. China, India, Japan and Korea
o Africa – all African countries
3. WORLD POPULATION (million)
4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
4.1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (PKM - 109 2000 US$)
4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
4.2. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA (PKM)
5. ENERGY DEMAND
5.1. TOTAL WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION (106 TOE)
5. ENERGY DEMAND
5.2. REGIONS IN TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
5. ENERGY DEMAND
5.3. TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (106 TOE)
5. ENERGY DEMAND
5.4. TOTAL WORLD CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY FORMS (106 TOE)
6. ENERGY PRODUCTION
6.1. WORLD PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY (106 TOE)
6. ENERGY PRODUCTION
6.2. PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION PER CAPUTA (kgen/capita)
6. ENERGY PRODUCTION
6.3. STRUCTURE OF WORLD ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION (TWh)
6. ENERGY PRODUCTION
6.4. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY REGIONS (TWh)
6. ENERGY PRODUCTION
6.5. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (kWh/capita)
6. ENERGY PRODUCTION
6.6. PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION INCREASE (106 TOE)
7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS
7.1. CRUDE OIL RESERVES (BILLION OF BARRELS)
952,9 957,7 956,5 968,5 980,31.026,8 1.024,3 1.042,2 1.023,9 1.026,3 1.039,9 1.046,6
1.100,0
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
First 20 World totalSource: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review
7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS
7.2. NATURAL GAS RESERVES (BILLION m3)
Source: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review
134.981145.957 146.194 147.652 149.396 152.244 153.253 156.112 159.354
164.321
177.822 180.606 180.176
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
First 20 World total
7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS
7.3. RESERVES OF HYDRATES
Discovered reserves of hydrates in land and sea
Corroborated reserves 20 x 1015 m3
1 m3 hydrate = 164 m3 natural gas
Pacific Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Arctic OceanArctic Ocean
8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS
8.1. CRUDE OIL
Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2005
8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS
8.2. NATURAL GAS
Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2005
8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS
8.3. COAL
Source: IEA, Key World
Energy Statistics 2005
9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
9.1. LARGE POWER PLANTS
HYDRO POWER PLANTS:
Utility degree improvement Significant growth in Central and South America
COAL- FIRED THERMAL POWER PLANTS: Utility degree improvement and installed capacity increase Efficient SO2 removal and pilot project of CO2 emission mitigation Significant capacity growth especially in China and India
GAS - FIRED THERMAL POWER PLANTS: Utility degree improvement Significant capacity increase
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: Extended lifetime (60 years=, unit capacity increase, evolutinary improvements, dramatic
changes in design and configuration of the existing technologies, several initiatives in new reactor development (GIF, INPRO, ITER)
9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
9.1.1. COAL - AND GAS - FIRED THERMAL POWER UNITS
Capacity increase in thermal power units in 1990-2003 period, %
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Croatia WesternEurope
EasternEuropeand ex-SSSR
China India Japan Other Asia &Oceania
MiddleEast
NorthAmerica
Central& SouthAmerika
Africa Worldtotal
Source: Energy Information Administration
9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
9.1.2. NUCLEAR ENERGY – CAPACITY STATUS
After 1990 there is noticeable stagnation in installed
NP capacity growth
In future most of new nuclear capacities expected in
China as to meet the strong electricity demand
Growth
Source: EIA Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Most of nuclear capacities are installed in Western Europe and North America
Between 1990 and 2003 only Japan had a significant growth in nuclear capacities
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Western Europe
Eastern Europe and
Ex-USSR
China India Japan Other Asiaand Australia
NorthAmerica
South and iCentralAmerica
Africa
GW
1990 nuclear
1990 total
2003 total
2003 nuclear 0
100
200
300
400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
GW
Africa
South and Central America
Other Asia, Middle East nd Oceania
India
China
Japan
Eastern Europe and ex-USSR
North America
Western Europe
W. Europe
N. America
East Europe + ex-USSR
Japan
Other Asia
9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
9.2. RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
WIND Unit capacity increase and investment costs reduction High growth of construction
BIOMASS Application in electricity production, heat production and transportation Technological progress realized
SUN Increase in collector installation by annual rate of 13%, and solar cells by 27% Dominant silicium-based technology (93.7%),
GEOTHERMAL ENERGIES Capacity growth of 44%, electricity generation growth of 48%; thernal capacities growth of
76%, and heat production growth of 70% in previous period
SMALL HYDRO POWER PLANTS
HYDRO POWER PLANTS Permanent generation growth Small steps forward in technological development
EWEA target: 75000 MW in Europe by 2010
9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
9.2.1. WIND – PRICE GROWTH TENDENCY
€c/kWh
10. ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Significant progress in energy efficiency improvements in:
Changing attitude towards energy efficiency in legal sense, government measures, technological improvements, and awareness-raising and education of expert and general public
Utility degree increase in energy generation and transformation
Increased use of cogenration
Reduction of losses in transportation and distribution
Energy efficiency improvements in technological processes
Energy efficiency improvements in consumers: coolers, chillers, and their combinations, laundry washers and dryers, dish washers, electric stoves, light sources, and air-conditioning equipment
Increased insulation quality and production of new materials in construction industry
11. NEW TECHNOLOGIES
HYDROGEN
Major lines of development of hydrogen production
Fosil fuels – reforming natural gas, coal carburation, incomplete oil derivative oxidation Water electrolysis by use of RES – solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, hydro, geothermal energy, etc. Thermal chemical production – water decomposition in chemical reactins with heat Nuclear energy – water electrolysis and decomposition Biosystems – biomass carburation, algae biophotolysis
Problems of hydrogen storage
Gaseous hydrogen –- composite and other reservoirs Liquified hydrogen – criogens, absorbent solutions, organic liquifactions Solid materials –- carbon and hydrides, able to absorb hydrogen
Main areas of hydrogen use
Hydrogen combustion: internal-combustion engines - transport; gas turbines –- aircraft transport, combined energy plants
Fuel cells; decentralized electricity and heat generation, transport and others (develpent of high-temperature – decentralized CHP, low-temperature – for vehicles and small CHP)
12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS
12.1. TRANSPORT
Share of road transport is increasing, while share of railway and pipeline transport is decreasing. Railway transport is stable.
Share of road transport is increasing, while share if railway and river transport is decreasing – constant trend
Source: Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, European Commission,"EU Energy and Transport in Figures 2004"
Freight transport - EU 15
52,160,0
69,3 70,6 72,9 74,0 74,7 75,5
30,124,1
18,1 16,4 14,4 14,0 13,4 12,910,9 8,8 7,6 7,5 7,4 7,2 7,0 6,96,8 7,1 5,0 5,5 5,3 4,8 4,8 4,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1980 1990 1991 1995 2000 2001 2002
(%)
Pipelines
River transport
Railways
Road transprot
Freight transport - USA
22,4 23,6 26,2 27,2 30,5 30,9 30,3
41,5 39,1 37,6 38,241,3 42,2 43,1
12,8 12,3 12,0 13,110,4 10,4 10,0
23,4 25,0 24,2 21,6 17,8 16,6 16,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1980 1985 1990 1999 2000 2001
(%)
Pipelines
River transport
Railways
Road transport
12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS
12.1. TRANSPORT
Source: Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, European Commission, "EU Energy and Transport in Figures 2004"
Railway transport decreasing while airways transport is increasing.
Share of road and railway transport is decearsing and share of airway transport is increasing.
Passenger transport - EU15
73,8 76,1 79,0 78,9 79,5 78,8 78,5 78,5 78,8
12,7 11,8 9,3 9,2 8,7 8,4 8,3 8,3 8,3
10,4 8,4 6,7 6,8 6,3 6,2 6,3 6,3 6,2
4,0 4,1 4,6 5,5 5,9 5,9 5,71,01,01,00,90,91,11,01,21,6
2,51,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1980 1990 1991 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002
(%)
Airways
Trams and metro
Railways
Buses
Pasenger cars
Passenger transport - SAD
91,3 89,1 87,2 86,6 85,0 84,7 85,7
3,2 3,5 3,4 3,1
9,1 9,5 10,9 11,2 10,6
3,02,42,3
0,50,4 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3
0,50,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3
5,4 7,7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1980 1985 1990 1999 2000 2001
(%)
Airways
Trams and metro
Railways
Buses
Passenger cars
12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS
12.1. TRANSPORT
1970 – Rules on technical measures and requirements for thermal protection of buildings – Official Bulletin of SFRY SFRJ 35/70 – 3 climate zones.1980 – new requirements in thermal protection of buildings. New, stricter, and amended version of these norms adopted in 1987 and is still in force today as HRN U.J.5.600, HRN U.J5.510, HRN U.J5.520, HRN U.J5.530.
LEGAL ENVIRONMENT AND HEAT NEEDS IN BUILDINGS
050
100150200250
300350
OLD H
OUSES
CRO REGULA
TION 1
987
NEW R
EGULATIO
N 200
5
LOW
-ENERGY H
OUSES
PASSIVE H
OUSESSp
ecif
ic e
ner
gy
dem
and
in k
Wh
/m2
Electricity in households
Electricity for ventilation
Hot water for consume
Heating
CHANGING REGULATION ON THERMAL PROTECTION IN CROATIA FROM 1970 UNTIL NOW
o Currently 83% of buildings in Croatia has unsatisfactory thermal protection in relation to the European standards and more than 50% of buildings was built without any thernal protection
o New technical requirements on heat energy savings and thermal protection in buildings – first step in harmonization with Directive 2002/91/EC – needed heat certificate for buildings (as from 01 July 2006 in Croatia)
83%
17%
Unsatisfactory thermal protection
Thermal protection in compliance withrequirements from 1987
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
before 1919 1919.- 1945.
1946.-1960
1961- 1970.
1971.- 1980
1981.- 1990
1991- 1995
from 1996 data
not availableincompleteapartments
Number ofinhabitedapartmentsbyyear ofconstruction
12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS
12.2. DWELLINGS
13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING
GAS BEFORE 1990
MONOPOLY: NATIONAL OR SUPPLY AREAS
COMPETITION: NON EXISTING IN NATIONAL MARKET SUPPLY
NATIONAL MARKETS: TRADING BETWEEN GAS COMPANIES
REGULATION: REGULATOR IS GOVERNMENT THERE IS NOT
INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY
OWNERSHIP: IN PRINCIPLE STATE-OWNERSHIP PREVAILS
CUSTOMERS: CANNOT CHOOSE SUPPLIER
13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING
GAS UNTIL 2005
RESTRUCTURING: UNBUNDLING MARKET-ORIENTED AND MONOPOLY
ACTVITIES UNBUNDLING TRANSPORT AND DISTRIBUTION
FROM PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY ESTABLISHING
TRANSPORT NETWORK OPERATOR ESTABLISHING
DISTRIBUTION NETWORK OPERATOR (OR COMBINED
OPERATOR) STORAGE AS SEPARATE ACTIVITY
COMPETITION: IN PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY
NATIONAL MARKETS: MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION OF MARKET
REGULATION: INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY
OWNERSHIP: PRIVATIZATION, MULTINATIONAL DIMESION, TAKE – OVER
OF SMALLER COMPANIES
CUSTOMERS: POSSIBILITY TO CHOOSE SUPPLIER
13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING
ELECTRICITY BEFORE 1990
MONOPOLY: NATIONAL
COMPETITION : NONE COMPETITION IN SUPPLY
NATONAL MARKETS: TRADING BETWEEN ELECTRIC POWER UNDERTAKINGS
REGULATION: REGULATOR IS GOVERNMENT, THERE IS NOT
INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY
OWNERSHIP : STATE OWNERSHIP PREVAILS
CUSTOMERS : CANNOT CHOOSE SUPPLIER
13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING
ELECTRICITY UNTIL 2005
RESTRUCTURING: UNBUNDLING MARKET-ORIENTED AND MONOPOLY ACTVITIES UNBUNDLING TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION FROM GENERATION AND SUPPLY
ESTABLISHING TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATOR ESTABLISHING DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATOR
ESTABLISHING ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATOR
COMPETITION: IN GENERATION AND SUPPLY
NATIONAL MARKETS: MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION OF MARKET
REGULATIONA: INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY
OWNERSHIP: PRIVATIZATION, MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION, TAKE - OVER OF SMALLER COMPANIES
CUSTOMERS: POSSIBILITY TO CHOOOSE SUPPLIER
14. ENERGY TRANSPORT
14.1.OIL PIPELINES
Existing pipelines
Pipelines under consideration /construction/ extenstionProduct pipelines
Proposed priority routes Of European interest
14. ENERGY TRANSPORT
14.2. ELECTRICITY NETWORKS OF UCPTE COUNTRY MEMBERS
14. ENERGY TRANSPORT
14.3. EXPORT OF NATURAL GAS (billon m3)
Izvor: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review
Slight but constant rise of exports in relation to production, both through gas pipelines or through LNG.
Export of natural gas (bill m )3
80,9 83,2 88,3 92,7 100,3 111,1 114,0 124,4 137,2 143,3 150,6
398,4 402,1 384,0405,7
431,9 419,4 434,5473,8
518,8548,4
570,6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Export (LNG) Export (via gas pipelines)
Gas pipelines
LNG
Source: Trans European Network
14. ENERGY TRANSPORT
14.4. GAS NETWORK PRIORITY PROJECTS
14. ENERGY TRANSPORT
14.5. POTENTIAL GAS PIPELINES’ CAPACITIES, bill m3
15. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
o Energy sector:‐ Air emissions,‐ Soil pollution,‐ Water pollution,‐ Waste (incl. nuclear)
o As of 1990 noticed is general trend of air emissions reduction (6.3% under Annex I UNFCCC countries)
o Transitional economies accomplished noticeable reductions (by 40%) due to economic activity setback
o Significant influence of measures set out by conventions - UN FCCC and Kyoto protokol – on economies (espec. transitional countries)
Source : UNFCCC: FCC/CP/2004/5
15. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
FUTURE ACTIVITIES
o Transport systems efficiency improvement:• Leakage of energy products from from pipelines, gas pipelines and other network
systems,• Increased system efficiency but there is multiple increase in transported quantities of
energy products,• Pressures due to increased volumes of energy products transport by tankers,• Energy related incidents in road transport.
o Energy sector waste management, especially nuclear waste
o Greenhouse gas emission mitigation:• UN FCCC and Kyoto Protocol implementing mechanisms :
• Emissions reduction,• Emission tradings,• Projects in the framework of Joint Implementation...
• reducing emission of other pollutants, with and without greenhouse effects, from the energy sector,
• energy efficiency.
o Finding modalities of financing measures for reducing pollution from the energy sector.
16. OBSERVATIONS / 1
Political changes in the past 15 years had significant impact on energy consumption (former communist countries in Europe, USSR, China, etc.)
Wars and crises in most cases related to energy producing countries
Population growth took place only in China, India, other part of Asia and Africa, i.e., in less developed part of the world
Economic growth (increse in GDP) in absolute terms is higher in undeveloped world than in the developed one, but the gap is still wide
A larger portion of energy consumption was realized in undeveloped countries (55%), regardless of the fact that 2 billion people in the world do not have access to modern forms of energy
Energy intensity is improving
Regardless of increased use of renewables, oil and gas made up more than 50% of the energy consumption growth
In electricity consumption China had the higest rise; and less developed countries in absolute terms had increased electricty consumption more than developed ones.
16. OBSERVATIONS / 2
In energy production the deficit in developed countries inceases, because primary energy forms production growth has been realized in undeveloped countries.
The higest growth in electricty production was realized in coal, gas-fired thermal power units and nuclear units, by most in China.
Crude oil and gas reserves in the past period grew faster than production.
In oil prices it is essential to point out the period of unrealistically low prices 98/99 and the period of high prices 2004/2005. Demand growth in China and other undeveloped countries is the real reason of price increase but its dominant dimension is in political and economic speculations.
Gas prices were in line with crude oil prices, only the most restictive factor are poorly developed transport network
Coal prices have been relatively more stable except for the period 2004/2005 when demand grew, mostly in China.
16. OBSERVATIONS / 3
The past 15 years was the period of application of known technologies minimally improved to meet energy efficiency and environemantal impact requirements
The focus is increasinlgy on energy efficiecy and renewable energy sources
The characteristic of the past 15 years is the opening of electricity and gas markets, legal regulation of the market, restructuration and privatization
Barriers to market development, transport and domination of short term over long term objectives
Transport sector significantly grows without arrangements which could vitaly affect the structure of energy consumption structure
Realistic possibilities of energy efficiency improvements in building sector
16. OBSERVATIONS / 4
On the basis of the past 15 years the next 15-year developments can be foreseen:
Introduction of new technologies with more dramatic imapct on structural changes in energy supply and demand is not expected
Continuation of economic growth and energy demand growth in undeveloped countries is expected.
Continuation of political insecurity around the energy producing countries is expected Further pressures on prices of primary energy forms is expected More significant gvernmental involvement is expected with a view of energy effciency
improvements and use renewables
Desirable and crucial would be a decision by international community and governments to forge acoalition for technological development in energy sector and investments in technology.
More investments in research and development of primary energy forms production and in transprot network construction for network fuels would enhance security of supply.
16. OBSERVATIONS / 5
CONCEPT OF WEC EUROPE REGIONAL SCENARIOS TO 2050