oil products market in the middle and ...oil products market in the middle and southeast europe...
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OIL PRODUCTS MARKET IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHEAST EUROPE
Damir Pešut
Robert Fabek
Sanja Živković
Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb
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Petroleum products market in the middle and southeast Europe
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Petroleum products market in the middle and southeast Europe
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Population x 1.000
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GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$)
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Petroleum products consumption (kg/capita)
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
kg/c
apit
a
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Specific consumption of new cars and stock average (EU)
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Petroleum products consumption
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Petroleum products consumption
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.
1 0
00
t
LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel fuel Extra light fuel oil Fuel oil Other products
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Petroleum products production
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.
1 0
00
t
Croatia Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina FYR of Macedonia
Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Romania
Bulgaria Greece Albania Italy
Austria
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Petroleum products production
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.
1 0
00
t
LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Gas oil Fuel oil Other products
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Petroleum products balance
0
30.000
60.000
90.000
120.000
150.000
180.000
210.000
2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.
1 0
00
t
Production Net exports Consumption
86%
??? %81%
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Crude oil balance
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-20.000
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.
1 0
00
t
Production Import Export Consumption Dependence
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Refineries in the middle and southeast Europe
• 34 refineries
• 13 countries
• 185,7 mil. tonnes
• 6 closed
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Refining capacities in the middle and southeast Europe
1
1
3
1
2
1
2
11
4
2
1
4
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Austria
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Croatia
B&H
Serbia
Italy
Greece
Albania
Bulgaria
Romania
FYR Macedonia
Number of refineries per Country
9,6
6,1
9,6
8,1
6,8
4,2
7,3
88,8
21,6
1,5
7,5
12,1
2,5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Austria
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Croatia
B&H
Serbia
Italy
Greece
Albania
Bulgaria
Romania
FYR Macedonia
Total capacity of refineries per Country (mt/y)
34 refineries 185,7 mil. tonnes
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Complexity of refineries
• NCI 1,9-13,1
14
11
9
Number of refineries
NCI <7 NCI 7-10 NCI >10
53,7; 29%
80,4; 43%
51,6; 28%
Refinery capacity according to NCI (mt/y)
NCI <7 NCI 7-10 NCI >10
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Conclusion
• Consumption of petroleum products significantly decreased
• Relative increase of demand for diesel fuel
• Decrease of demand for motor gasoline and fuel oil
• Decrease of utilization of refineries
• Closure of refining capacities
• Slight and slow petroleum products demand growth
• Need for new investments in refineries
• Higher cost of petroleum products
• Further closure of refining capacities
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