energy & its impact on the economy - | ngc media centre · 2019. 10. 9. · 2015r 62.65 2016r...
TRANSCRIPT
01 Energy & its impact on the Economy
8th October 2019
Subject to disclaimer
DISCLAIMER
The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC) has agreed to make this presentationto the attendees of this event. NGC makes no representation as to the accuracy of the informationcontained herein and advises that no reliance should be placed on that information. The information inthis presentation is based primarily on publicly available sources, which NGC is not responsible forpreparing or verifying.
The information provided shall not be binding on NGC, its shareholders, board of directors, employeesand/or agents, and has no legal effect and in no circumstances shall the contents be relied upon forany reason whatsoever. No responsibility is accepted by or on behalf of NGC, its shareholders, board ofdirectors, employees and/or agents for any decisions made by the recipients of such informationpursuant to receipt of the information nor shall NGC be responsible for any direct or indirectconsequences as a result of any reliance on he information being provided by NGC herein.
Subject to disclaimer
Global Energy Outlook
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019
Natural gas & Renewables increasing %
share of primary energy
• Renewable energy is the fastest growing source of
energy• Natural gas grows much
faster than either oil or coal
Subject to disclaimer
Global Energy Outlook
Source: McKinsey Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective Jan 2019
Source: China Gas Strategy, Royal Dutch Shell - GasTech 2019 Source: McKinsey- Global Energy Perspective 2019- Reference case
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Global energy-related CO2 emissions per fuel GtCo2 p.a.
China leads global gas demand ; underpinning the global LNG Market growth
Subject to disclaimer
Global Energy Outlook
Oversupply of LNG can lead to Price
Suppression
Source: Poten & Partners GasTech Houston 2019
More that 200 MMT/y of planned supply projects post 2023
Source: WTI – EIA (2013-2018) and Argus (2019-2024); HH – EIA (2013-2018) and PIRA
(2019-2024), JKM and NBP – PIRA (2013-2024)
Subject to disclaimer
Regional Energy Outlook
Increased focus on moving to a cleaner fuel
choice and becoming energy efficient.
Although Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) accounts for <10% of COemissions, it is the most affected area by climate change
Subject to disclaimer
Mount Trinidad – where are we?
Source: Rystad Energy January 2018
Pre 2016
Source: MEEI Consolidated Bulletins and NGC Projections 2007- 2018,
2019 NGC Internal projections, includes reinjection, fuel and flaring
Post 2016
2019 Jan-Jun averagePower: 07%Other: 08%Petchem: 31%LNG: 54%
Subject to disclaimer
Developments to Upstream
Sustainability of Downstream
Sector – Additional Molecules
2016 2018 2019 2020 + Future Developments
De Novo 1(A)
2017
BP TROC
BP Juniper
BP AngelinBP/EOG SercanBP Matapal - 2022
BP Cypre - beyond 2021
BP Expl - Ginger, Jasmine, Coconut Deep
BP Cassia Compression - 2021 Q3
Shell Starfish
Shell Dolphin
Shell Barracuda
Shell Colibri
BHP Ruby
BHP Expl: Bongos, Bele, Hi Hat, Tuk, Victoria
BP/EOG MentoDragon
Up
stre
am –
Sup
ply
So
urc
e
BHP Debottlenecking
Subject to disclaimer
Gas Supply Developments
Across the Border
Downstream
Midstream
Upstream
2017 2018 2019
BP GSC BHP GSC
Shell Term Sheet
ALNG T1 life extension
N2000 GSC
Dragon Term Sheet
EOG GSC DeNovo GSC
Nutrien GSC
CNC GSC
GPG Term Sheet
BHP Ruby Term Sheet
2016
TROC
Other Downstream Negotiations
ALNG restructuring
ALNG Train 1 Cargoes & Pricing (GORTT ENT)
Subject to disclaimer
NGC Group’s Contribution to National Budget
NGC Group contributes an average of 9.5% to the National Budget over the period 2013 - 2018
Source: NGC Group Audited Consolidated Financial Statement 2013-18
Volatility of commodity prices play an important factor on NGC Group’s earnings
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ammonia Caribbean FOB (US$/t)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MethanolUS Spot (US$/MT)
Subject to disclaimer
Energy Sector Contribution to Trinidad & Tobago’s GDP
Energy Sector contribution
to GDP (TTD Bn)
2013r 65.70
2014r 63.22
2015r 62.65
2016r 56.53
2017r 57.13
2018p 58.52
Source: Ministry of Finance Review of the Economy 2018
50 48 47 43 44 46
16 15 16 14 13 13
103 104 108 103
99 101
39%
38%
37%
35%
37%37%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2013r 2014r 2015r 2016r 2017r 2018p
TTD
$B
illio
ns
Energy vs Non-Energy Contribution to GDP (Purchaser's Price)
Natural Gas Oil Non-energy % of GDP
Subject to disclaimer
FPrices: Future Projections
Source:
WTI – EIA (2013-2018) and Argus (2019-2024); HH – EIA (2013-2018) and PIRA (2019-2024)
JKM and NBP – PIRA (2013-2024)
Crude and Natural Gas
Subject to disclaimer
Our Internal Environment
Unavailability of Downstream Plants
Claims
Compressed Gas Margins
Liquidity Challenges –Power subsidy and non-payment
•Diversify and grow •Downstream renegotiations in progress•Sustainability of PetChem sector
•Significant reduction by commercial resolution of contracts
• Increased focus on Power Tranche, cash
flow management and energy efficiency
•Molecular optimization & • Increase stability •Closely coordinating upstream and downstream
01A look into the future.
15
TradingDownstream Midstream Upstream
Aggregator
Integrated International Gas Company
1975
Merchant
2018
2019 +
2017Deepen Skill
Sets in Geology
Marginal
Fields
NOJV portfolio
management
Contract
negotiation
Claims
Reduction
LIC sector
Energy
Efficiency
Deepen Skill Sets in
LNG, Energy M&T
Utilize G2G
for Incr. LNG
Train 1 life
extension decision
ALNG
Restructuring
Strategic Partnership e.g.
China, Mozambique, Ghana
Pipeline Company
Subject to disclaimer
• Gas Processing agreementwith Ghana Gas
NGC Group’s Contribution to National Economy
• Logistics hub with expanding Guyana oil industry by Q4 2019
• Achieved sales of 1 million litre milestone (Sept 2019) , YTD savings of 18,949 tons of CO2
• Launched TTEngage
• Renewables – Super ESCO
• Exporting expertise - Training of plant operators at PPGPL facility
• 2014 – 6 CNG stations • 2019 - 17 CNG stations
• Inorganic Growth • 2019 - 200 conversions /mth• Energy Efficiency
Subject to disclaimer
NGC’s changing business model
Sustainability of PetChem Sector
• Marginal fields
• Across the Border
Value Creation across the Gas Chain
Diversification and Growth
Strategic Partnerships
Shaping the industry and region
• Power tranche• Signatory to
Energy Chamber Energy Efficiency Charter
National Contribution through sustainable development
Technology
• Real time data, • Drones• Increased
productivity • E-auctions• Increased
communication
1 2 3 4 5 6 7• Upstream
portfolio optimization
• Group Synergies
• LNG • Marketing and
Trading
• China• Mozambique• Ghana• Guyana• Caribbean
• Police Youth Club
• YTEPP• Steelbands/MIC
Subject to disclaimer
Knowledge TransferCollaboration
Long Term Energy Vision
People Development
People and Strategic Partnerships