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    FEBRUARY 2012

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    THE ENERGY INDUSTRY: AN EVOLVING RISK LANDSCAP

    OVERVIEWThroughout the last decade risk landscapes have evolved,

    often dynamically, such that today, the risks faced by many

    enterprises have proliferated and are larger and more

    inextricably linked than ever before. Relief is not at hand:

    according to the World Economic Forums Global Risks

    2012 report, macro risks will become increasingly complex

    and interrelated over the next 50 years, as constellations

    of risk overtake singular risk silos in representing serious

    threats to global prosperity and security.

    The purpose of this paper is to consider the evolution of

    energy risks in the context of the global macro-risk picture; to

    anticipate evolving high-level energy risk trends that shouldperhaps loom large on the radar screens of industry risk

    managers; and, to offer insights on potential risk mitigation

    and treatment techniques.

    Never before has the function of energy risk management

    been more challenging, nor offer those that do it well such

    significant competitive advantage over those that are

    merely adequate.

    Energy sector risk managers need to ensure they have

    addressed key issues in this new reality of risk:

    Risk magnitude has grown such that traditional risk

    transfer capacity may be found wanting unless

    complemented by new or evolved solutions. The size of

    an insurance recovery is only half the story: experience

    has demonstrated that when losses threaten balance

    sheets, the rapidity of cash injections via insurance

    indemnities is of critical importance.

    Risks have an increasing habit of compounding the

    ability of a singular incident to ignite innumerable and

    perhaps unforeseen consequences which, in turn, may

    emit their own shockwaves. These after-shocks may havefar greater impacts than the original occurrence. Risk

    compounding presents myriad challenges to risk

    managers: it is both difficult to model the consequences

    and easy to lose control of event management,

    stabilisation and recovery.

    Regulatory and organisational insularity undermines

    the pursuit of insightful risk management. Effective risk

    management should recognise the merits of competition

    but also the value of collaboration. Our own research has

    shown that energy companies are good at internally

    cascading the lessons of their own experience but poor at

    learning from the mistakes or insights of others.

    The Black Swan moment. Risk managers should

    assume that their company will suffer a major loss

    regardless of the preventative measures in place, and

    that it may bear little similarity to those appearing on the

    corporate Risk Register. This insight drives a very much

    more expansive risk perspective and one that is an

    essential guarantor of corporate survival.

    Corporate success or survival may depend more on post-

    event agility and a culture of adaptability than pre-event

    prescriptive, embedded procedure. Process and regulation

    are essential for the conduct of business and may even

    exert positive cultural influences from a risk management

    perspective. Yet far-sighted risk managers increasingly

    look to crisis management, disaster planning and business

    recovery as the critical competitive differentiators. Many

    actively engage in internal dialogues to align various

    stakeholders, for example with boards, human resource

    departments and health and safety functions.

    Risks may be identified and exposures modelled, but

    organisations that are capable of quick-witted problem-

    solving and decisive remedial action perhaps at multiple

    customer and media interfaces mark themselves out as

    being elite.

    We hope this paper will provoke some consideration of

    how well prepared your organisation is to deal with these

    pressing risk issues.

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    FEBRUARY 2012

    Some of the implications of the shifts are:

    Traditional Joint Venture and Production Sharing

    agreements are being supplanted by dollar-per-barreltariffs, often triggered or enhanced by built-in

    production level targets. At the same time, host states

    will naturally seek to impose levies on IOCs in the form of

    taxation and royalties, whilst their NOC instruments of

    energy strategy may change the balance of risk transfer

    to the IOC and seek to moderate investor rewards. These

    arrangements may produce a complex risk/reward

    environment, which can be dangerous for IOCs and

    NOCs alike if there is insufficient alignment of interest.

    NOCs may have different drivers to IOC. NOCs may be

    subject to OPEC quotas, international relations of the

    host government and expectations for their local

    populations whereas IOCs may well have rather

    different stakeholder priorities such as shareholders,

    investors, public relations and downstream customers.

    Host nations may seek to exercise control over projects

    through a requirement for IOCs to partner with NOCs,

    and through their NOCs may become shareholders in

    companies that participate in the oil and gas value

    chain. This can lead to a number of challenges to both

    parties including:

    Increased risk to national / strategic / operational

    objectives due to additional complexity of operating

    with non-aligned partners.

    Potential divergence on operating standards may expose

    one party to a higher hazard / operational loss exposure.

    It may become more difficult to protect intellectual

    property.

    Increased investment requirement for exploration

    activities due to more demanding contract terms.

    Sovereign states that are perceived to lack politicalstability risk a contraction of inward foreign investment,

    leading to curtailment of project activity and stunted

    industry development. By the same token, foreign

    investors may risk asset expropriation and an attendant

    failed investment. This is not just a developing country

    issue as, established democracies are increasingly

    viewed as having the potential for fiscal volatility and

    unpredictable political dynamics.

    There is an increasing trend for NOCs to become

    International NOCs (INOCs) as they search for

    investment opportunities beyond their own national

    borders. This exposes them to political or country risksthat are comparable to those experienced by IOCs.

    RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

    Undertaking political risk assessments before embarking

    on new investments, perhaps in new geographies,

    enables organisations to consider the stability of political

    and fiscal environments, the robustness of the legal

    framework and the potential consequences from

    plausible change. Depending on the nature of the threat,

    risk management may range from the lobbying of

    ministers regarding the legal framework and fiscal policyto contingency planning for staff repatriation from

    territories that have become hostile. Political risk, in all

    its guises, should be the subject of robust analysis and

    pre and post-loss mitigation: preparedness allows

    organisations to respond to incidents in a measured and

    controlled manner.

    Developed project risk management processes allows for

    both transparent risk allocation between partners and

    enables considered provisioning for risk events. This in

    turn reduces volatility for the balance sheet, and allows for

    pragmatic mitigation should risk events materialise.

    Supply chain risk assessment that evaluates risks

    derived from third parties (suppliers, joint ventures,

    investors, contractors et al) is a valuable technique for

    understanding dependencies and sources of risk.

    Stronger contract negotiation and management through:

    Contract risk due diligence and allocation

    Joint venture management guidelines

    Concentrated budget allocation with tighter due

    diligence process to steer exploration activities.

    Affinity Partnering. In the coming years, the most

    successful joint ventures will likely be those that

    emphasise an affinity of interest and recognise the value

    that each partner may bring. For example, some

    partners may offer technological expertise that is

    complemented by the political influence of another.

    Choosing ones partners is now much more than a simple

    act of capital capture.

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    FEBRUARY 2012

    2. INCREASINGLYCHALLENGINGRESERVES

    In 2010, global primary energy

    consumption grew by 5.6%, the largest

    increase (in percentage terms) since

    19732

    . Oil remains the worlds leading

    fuel, at around a third of global energy

    consumption3 and in order to meet this

    perpetual demand for energy, oil and gas

    companies are pursuing more complexresources to meet energy consumption.

    Recoverable resources are estimated to be nearly 5.5 trillion

    barrels (current proven reserves of oil are 1.47 trillion barrels4)

    and current oil prices justify the increased exploration and

    production (E&P) cost. This is particularly true for costs

    associated with exploiting new reserves whether in the Arctic,

    ultra-deepwater or in marginal oil fields using alternative

    drilling techniques and enhanced oil recovery.

    E&P costs are predicted to increase by over 10% in 2012compared to 20115 as oil and gas companies exploit new

    reserves notably including offshore Brazil, the Caspian sea,

    Greenland and Canadian oil sands.

    Some of the issues facing the oil industry as a result of this

    push into new areas of operation are as follows:

    There are higher risks associated with extracting

    hydrocarbons from harsher, remoter environments. The

    Arctic for example is characterised by extreme cold,

    varying forms, and amounts of sea ice, seasonal

    darkness, high winds and extended periods of heavy fog

    and week-long storms that approach hurricane

    strength6. This environment places increased demands

    on the performance, safety and operability of equipment

    and technologies. Deepwater drilling and production

    has associated challenges with equipment suitability

    and performance. These risks are compounded when

    also dealing with high pressure and/or high temperature

    wells, which often they are.

    There are unknown risks of using new extraction

    methods and innovative technologies in new

    environments. The risks associated with first of a kind

    technology are difficult to fully assess, by virtue of the

    lack of data upon which to base an assessment. For

    example, the use of fracking to increase shale gas

    production requires both investment in research and

    development with uncertain returns as well as the higher

    risk associated with the implementation of new

    technologies. Equally, new technologies and processespresent opportunities to reduce unit costs of producing

    oil and gas.

    Harsher, remoter environments such as deepwater and

    the Arctic are not conducive to dealing with situations

    where problems are encountered. Catastrophe liabilities

    for drilling contractors and operators are increased in

    environments where containment of leakage is complex

    and difficult. Furthermore, in environments that are

    deemed ecologically sensitive and/or pristine, the

    consequences of environmental impact are likely to be

    far-reaching.

    Reputational risk is heightened for companies operating in

    environments that are regarded with significant interest.

    Some frontier areas, for example, the Arctic, can be

    especially sensitive and both political and social reaction to

    any catastrophe is likely to create lasting reputational

    damage to both contractors and operators. Control of this

    risk is in the mutual interests of all companies engaged in

    drilling and production activities another event

    comparable to the Deepwater Horizon current could

    change the landscape for the whole industry.

    From recent catastrophe events (for example, the

    earthquake and tsunami in Japan, flooding in Thailand and

    Australia, earthquakes in New Zealand, and Deepwater

    Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico), it is clear that climate and

    weather patterns are changing. So while extractions of

    hydrocarbons in new frontiers pose challenges, heightened

    natural catastrophe hazards will also complicate extraction

    in well known, developed and tested areas.

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    THE ENERGY INDUSTRY: AN EVOLVING RISK LANDSCAP

    RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

    An enterprise risk management (ERM) approach to risk

    exposures allows an organisation to view and evaluate

    risks of a field development. This allows an integrated

    and holistic view of likely risk exposures and

    opportunities, and helps to avoid assessing exposures in

    narrow silos. In particular scenario analysis can be an

    effective tool for evaluating new and emerging risks.

    Developed and exercised business continuity and crisismanagement plans are effective at planning contingency

    measures in the event of an incident. Tried and tested

    plans are critical for ensuring events are not left to spiral

    out of control and could protect an organisations

    reputation if a crisis is deemed to have been handled

    successfully.

    Applying quantitative risk analysis can help an

    organisation understand the exposures in any project.

    Analysis can determine likely risk impacts at varying

    degrees of confidence and help evaluate the

    effectiveness of mitigation measures in controlling thoseexposures.

    Whilst the aggregation of risks in some of the frontier

    (both geographic and technological) developments

    presents new levels of overall risk many of the

    component issues have historically been encountered

    and managed. A crucial issue though is to be aware of

    the existence of those component risks and put in place

    plans to manage them so as to reduce the overall risk

    level. The recent Marsh publication 100 Largest Losses

    suggests that the industry does not always learn as well

    as it could from past mistakes especially those made by

    others, those made in different parts of the world and

    those made some years ago. Deeply embedding the

    learning from past losses is a key first step in any risk

    management strategy before addressing the more

    complex risk combinations.

    2BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011.

    3Ibid

    4IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011

    5Energy E&P spending to reach record high, Reuters News 5 December 2011, Global 2012 E&P Spending Outlook

    6Drilling in Extreme Environments: Challenges and implications for the energy insurance industry, Lloyds 2011

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    FEBRUARY 2012

    Increasingly stringent climate change regulations are

    anticipated as governments seek to meet emission

    reduction targets. Legislation and industry guidance on

    greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and renewable energysources could significantly impact business operations for

    energy companies. An example is the variation and likely

    flux in biofuel blending rates: as governments aim to meet

    renewable targets the use of biofuels is being encouraged.

    However, with current overcapacity, it is expected that

    blending limits will increase in some countries (for

    example, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia) in order to absorb

    the excess capacity8. This in turn will impact the project

    economics and profitability of biofuels as an alternative

    energy source, currently being explored by some oil

    majors.

    Recent losses have driven shifts in regulatory and public

    opinion, especially in relation to the issues of pollution

    and other liabilities. In the event of a catastrophic

    incident, regulatory priorities will be aimed at both

    protecting the public and ensuring wider confidence in

    the regulatory process.

    RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

    Foreseeing changes to regulatory regimes can be aided

    through scenario assessment and quantitative analysis

    on plausible changes to fiscal and environmental

    legislation. Such an approach can be useful in modelling

    likely impacts from changes to pricing and costs.

    Review and assessment of green / white paper system

    (where applicable) allows organisations to maintain

    awareness of impending and emerging legislation.

    Participation in industry bodies and engagement with

    climate change / regulatory panels can help ensure

    realistic and phase changes.

    Being prepared to react to an incident which does not

    directly affect a companys own operations can be

    critical to future profitability. Some circumstances may

    require plans to protect hard won reputations after a

    competitor has caused an adverse impact on the whole

    industry. In another global business sector, the recent

    cruise ship incident in Italy has led the cruise industry to

    remind the public of its historic safety record. Additional

    regulatory control may well be a consequence of such

    incidents. Being prepared to keep an open dialogue with

    government should be part of a companys preparation

    planning and pre preposition.

    8Global Biofuels Outlook 2011 2020, http://www.globalbiofuelscenter.com/MiscellaneousContent.aspx?ContentId=19

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    FEBRUARY 2012

    4. RESTRICTEDAVAILABILITY OFCAPITAL

    Oil and gas projects are among the most

    capital intensive and as such oil and gas

    companies are required to work closely

    with banks to secure financing.

    Over the past ten years, worldwide costs of developing

    production capacity have doubled, largely due to increases

    in the cost of materials, personnel, equipment and services.

    In 2011, upstream oil and gas investment was forecast to hit

    US$550 billion 9% up on capital spending in 2010, and

    almost 10% higher than the previous peak in 2008 9.

    However, in the current environment longterm financing is

    increasingly difficult to procure with contracted markets

    and more stringent terms. Capital markets are wary of

    taking investment decisions in conditions of economic and

    regulatory, tax and legal uncertainty. Significant

    commodity volatility also adds to uncertainty around

    projecting financing requirements accurately.

    There is also limited market capacity to purchase exposure

    indemnification and this is viewed negatively by financing

    organisations. As a consequence, internal parent guarantees

    may be increasingly required by lending organisations,

    limiting balance sheet leverage and the transfer of risk.

    In short, lack of liquidity coupled with significant payback

    uncertainties (caused not least by product pricing volatility)

    is making it very difficult to secure finance for many projects.

    In particular there is a lack of appetite to lend to the smaller

    entrepreneurs who are often the ones at the forefront to

    break the mould with technological advances.

    RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

    Risk tolerance analysis allows an organisation to

    establish financial limits and thresholds that determine

    the level of volatility its balance sheet can withstand. By

    establishing the acceptable amount of financial

    impairment that can be retained without a material

    impact on the business, it is possible to review

    investment decisions to determine if there is sufficient

    financial buffer to take into account potential risks.

    Project financing scenario / what-if analysis allows

    plausible outcomes to be tested against an

    organisations risk tolerance and can help inform

    investment decisions.

    Long-term risk adjusted partnership arrangements can be

    negotiated with investors that take into account longevity

    and performance of investments and repayments.

    A tiered and gated decision-making approach to

    investments provides appropriate thresholds for

    approving decisions and stage gates ensure that risksare considered throughout the life cycle of a project.

    Securing project insurance is usually a key step in

    obtaining any project finance. The complexity of many

    projects though means that, in the absence of

    information to the contrary, insurers often assume worst

    case and load premiums and impose restrictive

    conditions. An essential early step is to have a full risk

    engineering review carried out of the proposed design

    and project management plan. Due to the progressive

    nature of projects this review needs updating on a

    regular basis to ensure the insurance is still matched tothe needs of the project.

    9IEA, Global Outlook 2011

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    FEBRUARY 2012

    5. ASSET AGEING ANDDECOMMISSIONING

    As reserves are depleted in the North

    Sea and Gulf of Mexico an increasing

    number of assets are reaching the

    decommissioning phase. Out of a total

    of 630 platform installations in the

    North Sea, it is expected that 284

    installations, subsea structures and

    pipelines may be ready to be

    decommissioned over the next

    decade.10

    Over the last five years forecast decommissioning costs

    have more than doubled due to cost inflation but also

    more accurate assessments of the scope of work and

    experience from current decommissioning projects.11 This

    poses a significant cost to oil and gas companies where

    historically there may have been no requirement to

    provision for decommissioned assets. Costs associated

    with decommissioning are difficult to accurately forecast

    for a number of reasons:

    FIGURE 2: DECOMMISSIONING COSTS FROM 2005 TO 2010.

    It is difficult to anticipate when it becomes uneconomic to

    keep a well open due to volatility in oil prices and changes

    to tax regimes and environmental legislation

    Technological advances improve production methods,

    making previously uneconomic fields profitable

    The track record of removing installations is not extensive,

    many of the technological challenges may have yet to be

    encountered and so cost estimating can be difficult

    There may be alternative uses for structures such as for

    gas storage or carbon sequestration

    Changes to accounting legislation are impacting on

    contingent provisioning versus on-balance sheet

    reserving.12

    Many of the majors have sold their interest in fields

    which are coming off plateau production in order to free

    up capital for larger, newer projects. This has meant

    many assets are now operated by companies without

    the experience or resources of the majors, and with a

    dwindling revenue stream to fund ongoing asset

    integrity and maintenance.

    RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

    Effective project risk management allows cost and

    schedule analysis to ensure completion to time and

    budget. Factoring in decommissioning costs into the

    project life cycle allows for provisioning and balance-

    sheet smoothing.

    10http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/cmsfiles/modules/publications/pdfs/OP049.pdf, Oil and Gas UK, 2010 Decommissioning Insight

    11Ibid

    12IAS 37, http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/accounting/docs/consolidated/ias37_en.pdf

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    FEBRUARY 2012

    6. SKILLS SHORTAGES

    Resourcing particularly of technicalskills is a key challenge facing the

    industry. This has been well

    documented and the oil and gas

    industry is in general having to deal

    with resource shortages.

    In a 2010 survey at Marshs National Oil Companies

    conference (see graphic below) recruitment and

    retention of qualified workforce was the second

    highest concern of respondents.

    There are two facets to this issue:

    In developed economies there is a reduced pool of

    technical graduates / experienced personnel

    In emerging oil and gas hubs there is limited

    experience in the local talent pool.

    As such there is a demographic move from some of the

    more established geographies to new developed

    economies offering greater rewards.

    The dearth of skilled expertise has been attributed to

    the following reasons:

    Cutbacks of the oil industry graduate programmes

    in the1990s

    An ageing workforce in developed economies and IOCs

    An increased but sometimes unmet demand for

    technical skilled resource, in line with the industrys

    push to extract resource from increasingly remote

    and harsh environments for example there isunderstood to be a serious lack of sub-sea expertise

    throughout the industry

    This risk is pervasive to all projects and operations and

    reduces the capacity to exploit opportunities.

    Resources are also a key differentiator in determining

    competitiveness, particularly in delivering on the

    technical challenges moving forward.

    RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES Measures to address the challenge of resourcing stem

    principally from how organisations manage their

    human capital. Talent management and development

    programmes; competitive remuneration; and links

    with universities and other academic institutions

    should aim to attract and retain the skilled resource.

    In a global marketplace, skills inevitably move, but

    with those skills come cultural differences. It is

    imperative that organisations understand those

    cultural differences and the impact they can have on a

    risk profile and then manage the risks accordingly.

    Due to the skills shortages and an ageing workforce,

    inevitably this gap will eventually be filled by

    younger and less experienced people. With that

    comes the huge attendant risk arriving from loss of

    corporate memory. Industry accident statistics

    suggest that unless learnings from losses have been

    deeply embedded in procedures and standardsand

    many are not then mistakes get repeated after 10

    years or so when people who suffered the original

    misfortune have moved to new positions or new

    companies. The insurance sector is well positioned

    to ensure some of these losses are understood bythe new generation through Learning from Losses

    seminars a regular feature now of Marsh

    underwriting surveys.

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    FEBRUARY 2012

    7. GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS

    The continued demand for energy sources, the location of resources and thepolitical uncertainty in those regions is arguably the largest macro risk facing

    oil and gas companies.

    This is reflected in a 2010 survey at Marshs National Oil Companies conference (see graphic below), which

    indicates that availability of oil and gas resources is considered the largest risk to the industry. Whilst the

    industry indeed presses ahead into more remote and challenging environments, much of the increased

    demand for oil will need to be met by Middle Eastern and African countries. Indeed the International Energy

    Agency forecasts that 90% of the growth in petroleum supply will come from this region in the next 20 years13.

    Of course this region has seen unprecedented political upheaval in the last 12 months with more still likely.

    FIGURE 3: RESULTS FROM 2010 MARSH NOC CONFERENCE SURVEY.

    13The Importance of the Middle East and North Africa in Providing Energy, R. Takieddine, Al Arabiya News

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    THE ENERGY INDUSTRY: AN EVOLVING RISK LANDSCAP

    Given that an investment has already been made, the

    instability and uncertainty directly impacts on the

    ability of oil and gas companies to continue operations

    from a variety of perspectives:

    Political risk impacts on the ability to continue

    operations from a safety and security of personnel

    and assets protection perspective.

    Regime unpredictability increases the credit risk of

    key suppliers and customers in the region.

    Country risk impacts on future opportunities as

    regime instability adds a risk premium to investmentassessments and makes it more difficult to secure

    project financing.

    Downstream activities in the value chain are

    dependent upon a predictable upstream supply of oil

    and gas interruption to supply is heightened when

    downstream activities are dependent on crude from

    politically volatile countries.

    Recent events in North Africa, Russia, Venezuela,

    Nigeria and Iran all serve to re-emphasise the potential

    impact on existing operations.

    RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

    Effective risk management is not solely about reducing

    the negative consequences of risk, it is also about

    taking opportunities for innovation and growth. The

    challenge remains how to deal with complex macro

    risks of this nature.

    At the most basic level, having a well defined (and

    tested) contingency / crisis management plan that

    can be executed in the event of a political risk

    incident, should provide a degree of assurance

    regarding resiliency.

    Key Risk Indicators (KRI) can provide businesses with

    metrics for assessing emerging risks and allow for

    the measurement of waxing and waning exposures.

    Leading KRIs can, for example, allow alert levels to be

    raised to the board regarding operations in a specific

    territory (or region) and if aligned to a risk

    management framework, provide important

    foresight in changes to business conditions.

    There are a variety of qualitative and quantitative

    techniques for identifying and evaluating risk

    exposures and these should be applied judiciously

    and appropriately to understanding the risks

    associated with expanding into, and maintaining a

    presence in, certain jurisdictions. A country risk

    assessment exercise should address external and

    internal variables with detail sufficient to provide

    assurance on the risk / reward profile associated with

    doing business in a certain territory. This should

    include other emerging risk issues such as the rule of

    law, human rights and business ethics. At the more

    complex end of the risk management spectrum

    government lobbying (both local and international)

    can influence to an extent the likelihood and impact

    of any political or emerging economy risk.

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    FEBRUARY 2012

    It is useful to regard ERM as an approach that evolves and becomes increasingly sophisticated with continuous

    improvement. In this way expertise in risk assessment builds and develops over time, allowing an organisation to sustain

    progress in its risk management capabilities. The table below is a maturity model developed by Marsh that allows

    organisations to develop their risk capabilities in a pragmatic and measured way. On the y-axis are six criteria necessaryto develop leading practice ERM, with five maturity levels on the x-axis.

    FIGURE 4: ERM MATURITY MODEL BY MARSH.

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    FEBRUARY 2012

    CONCLUSIONS

    A BETTER WAY TO TREAT RISK

    It can be seen from the examples above that risk issues are

    extremely diverse in nature and potential impact, even

    before we consider ripple effects. Silos of risk (e.g. a new

    refinery, an exploration well) may be easily given to

    description and evaluation, especially if the parameters of

    analysis are informed by accessible data (such as an

    investment or replacement value) or data that can be readily

    modelled (such as an Estimated Maximum Loss). Tellingly,

    our ability to articulate the nature of risk and plan for wider

    consequences may break down when we try to envisage

    knock-on effects. It seems that the further away from theinitial event we go, in time and effect, the more abstract our

    conceptualisation of risk must become, making it very much

    more difficult to model impacts and devise response plans.

    In part, this is because of the way that many companies

    manage risk, and in fact we all too often see corporate risk

    management structures that mirror perceived silos of risk

    (e.g. treasury risk, operating risk, legal risk, hazard risk) thus

    exacerbating the silo effect.

    We believe that the future of enlightened risk management

    lies in an increasingly holistic approach, so that above the

    silo level, risks are assessed for wider, more company-wideimpacts. This approach is often called ERM, which

    although regarded as best practice, has in some respects

    struggled for necessary recognition and adoption.

    An effective ERM process helps to illuminate and model the

    wider risk impacts emanating from a single event or indeed

    a cluster of events. In such a dynamic environment, large

    and complex enterprises will always struggle to identify all

    risk permutations. Therefore, successful ERM extends also

    to arming a company with the ability to mount superb

    responses in the face of unforeseen risk impacts. It is this

    very excellence in the face of the unpredicted that helps

    mark such companies out as elite organisations.

    THE EVOLVING ROLE OF THE RISK MANAGER

    Our conclusions about the necessity of ERM leads us to

    consider what risk managers can do to help overcome the

    limitations of the silo risk approach seen in many energy

    companies, large and small. The adoption of ERM within

    any given company will to some extent reflect the

    organisational structure and culture of that company.

    The aspirational risk manager (or whoever is performing

    that role, perhaps in addition to other responsibilities)

    will seek increasingly to broaden the influence of his or

    her office across the business, migrating from a pureinsurance function towards areas such as procurement,

    supply chain, human resources and acquisitions and

    divestments, risk governance, crisis management and

    business continuity planning. Evidently, all of these areas

    are either beset with risks or are tasked with mitigating

    the effects of risk. By bringing into each of these areas a

    profound knowledge of the company risk appetite and

    broad risk management expertise, the risk manager can

    help optimise the company relationship with risk and,

    thereby, the success of the enterprise. The paper entitled

    Creating Values Under Pressure: Why National Oil

    Companies need risk management in a shiftingenvironment, by o ur sister company Oliver Wyman,

    presents some very clear specifics on how he sees an

    NOC risk manager should go about this process.

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    THE ENERGY INDUSTRY: AN EVOLVING RISK LANDSCAP

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    The information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable and should be understood to be general risk management and insurance

    information only. The information is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such.

    Statements concerning legal, tax or accounting matters should be understood to be general observations based solely on our experience as

    insurance brokers and risk consultants and should not be relied upon as legal, tax or accounting advice, which we are not authorised to provide.

    AUTHORS ANDCONTRIBUTORS

    DANIELLE ANDERSON

    Marsh Risk Consulting

    [email protected]

    WILLIAM BRUCEMarsh Risk Consulting

    [email protected]

    EDDIE MCLAUGHLIN

    Marsh Risk [email protected]

    DOUGLAS URE

    Marsh Risk [email protected]

    SIMON BOXALL

    Marsh Energy [email protected]

    ANDREW GEOR GE

    Marsh Energy Practice

    [email protected]

    ROBERT ROBINSON

    Marsh Energy [email protected]

    JAY SYRETT

    Marsh Energy [email protected]