Energy

+

Industrial Processes and Product Use

Estimation of Greenhouse Gases Emissions in Brazil (1970-2015)

David Tsai

IEE-USP/RCGI Workshop January 30th, 2017

SEEG partners

Forestry

and LUC

Agriculture Energy

and IPPU

Waste

8% 10% 11% 13% 13%18% 20% 21% 23% 23% 26% 24%

5% 6%6% 5%

5% 5%

10%12%

14% 15% 14%

21%22% 23%

23% 22%23%

22%

78%73%

70%67% 67%

54%49% 47%

44%47%

43%46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Pa

tic

ipa

tio

no

n n

atio

na

l G

HG

em

issi

on

Year

Profile of National GHG emissions by sector (IPCC)

(Total)

LUC

Energy

Agriculture

IPPU

Waste

2004: Brazilian emissions peaks (3,8 GtCO2e*)

*IPCC AR-2

2004-2009Deforestation rates

falling fast

2009-2015Emissions ≈ stable

between 0.8 and 1.0 GtCO2e

+0,2%

-2,6%

+5,0%

+1,2%

+4,7%

+1,7%

Annual

variation

2009-2015

IPCC

Sectors

Energy

454 Mt

(82%)

IPPU

99 Mt

(18%)

Fugitive emissions

23 Mt (4%)

Fuel

combustion

431 Mt

(78%)

Industrial

processes

84 Mt (15%)

Product use 15 Mt (3%)

Energy and IPPU emissions in 2015 (MtCO2e)

Flare, venting, leaks, processing in refineries and platforms, coal mining

methane emissions, etc

Conversion of chemical energy into heat, movement and light

Chemical and physical transformation of matter

HFCs, SF6 in electrical equipment and burning of lubricants

Energy

454 Mt

(82%)

IPPU

99 Mt

(18%)

Fugitive emissions

23 Mt (4%)

Fuel

combustion

431 Mt

(78%)

Industrial

processes

84 Mt (15%)

Product use 15 Mt (3%)

Coal 29 Mt (5%)

Natural gas

82 Mt (15%)

O&G fugitives 12 Mt (2%)

Oil products

314 Mt

(57%)

gasoline C and diesel (CH4 e N2O) 6 Mt (1%)

Biomass 12 Mt (2%)

Industry

171 Mt

(31%)

Power

generation

78 Mt (14%)

Fuel production

54 Mt (10%)

27 Mt (5%)

19 Mt (4%)

Households, commercial n’ public

Agriculture

Transport

204 Mt

(37%)

Coal, carbonated rocks. oil

products, natural gas, etc

Energy and IPPU emissions in 2015 (MtCO2e)

BR Energy emissions x World Energy emissions (2014)

9%

11%

18%

21%

23%

33%

42%

45%

36%

28%

24%

16%

24%

14%

19%

27%

7%

9%

10%

18%

10%

12%

28%

8%

48%

52%

49%

45%

42%

41%

10%

20%

China

Índia

Japão

Alemanha

Mundo

EUA

França

Brasil

Transportes Indústria Outros Setores Geração de Eletricidade e Calor

Source: IEA, 2016; (Indústria inclui consumo de energia na indústria, produção de combustíveis e consumo de combustíveis na produção de metais)

Oil

70%Gas

16%

Coal

14%

Brazil

Oil

34%

Gas

20%Coal

46%

World

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Fu

elc

on

sum

ptio

n(M

toe

)

Year

Diesel

(mineral)

Gasoline A

Ethanol

Jet kerosene

Natural gasBiodiesel

Fuel consumption in transportation

Fuel oil

Δ 2014-2015

-5,7%

-9,4%

+18,6%

+18,4%

Brazilian Transport GHG emissions breakdownPrimary

energy

Secondary

energyMode Vehicles Function

OIL

194 Mt

(95%)

DIESEL

(MINERAL)113 Mt

(55%)

GASOLINE

67 Mt

(33%)

ROAD

187 Mt

(92%)

RAIL

3 Mt (2%)

WATER(*)

3 Mt (2%)

AIR

11 Mt (5%)

FUEL OIL

2 Mt (1%)

NATURAL GAS

4 Mt (2%)

GASOLINE C AND

DIESEL (CH4 e N2O)

5 Mt (3%)

TRUCKS

85 Mt (42%)

BUSES20 Mt (10%)

LIGHT COMMERCIAL

13 Mt (7%)

CARS

63 Mt (31%)

MOTORCYCLES6 Mt (3%)

AIRPLANES

LOCOMOTIVES

SHIPS

FREIGHT

105 Mt

(51%)

PASSENGERS

99 Mt

(49%)

Total: 204 MtCO2e**

Fonte de dados: Balanço Energético Nacional (MME) e Inventário Nacional de Emissões Atmosféricas por Veículos Automotores Rodoviários (MMA)

(*) Uma parcela do uso de combustíveis em embarcações decorre do transporte de passageiros. Devido a ausência de informações fundamentadas e

a sua pouca importância no conjunto das emissões, optou-se por alocar as emissões deste modal no transporte de cargas

(**) Incluídas as emissões do consumo de álcool hidratado no transporte rodoviário que correspondem a 1 Mt e as emissões do consumo de gasolina de

aviação no transporte aéreo que correspondem a 0,1 Mt.

JET KEROSENE

11 Mt (5%)

Freight transportation

Key questions: How to reduce Brazil’s dependancy on road diesel?

Can rail, and water transport be better explored?

81%

43% 46% 43%

25%

11%

25%11%

4%

17%

8%

32%

43%53%

58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Rússia EUA Canadá Austrália Brasil

Part

icip

ação

dos

mod

ais

no t

rans

port

e de

car

gas

Modal rodoviário

Modal hidroviário

Modal ferroviário

Mode share in selected countries

Road

USA Canada Australia Brazil

Water

Rail

Chart data source: Ministério das Cidades and Ministério dos Transportes (2013)

Russia

Modal share and freight type in BrazilTotal 2015: ~ 2.4 Gtku

Sources of information: PNLI (EPL, 2016)

Transporte aéreo de cargas representa 0,03% (0,6 bilhões de tku) da movimentação.

Road

(64,9%)

Rail

(15%)

Coastline shipping

(10,5%)

Inland shipping (5,3%)

Pipelines (4,4%)

Modal share and freight type in BrazilTotal 2015: ~ 2.4 Gtku

Sources of information: PNLI (EPL, 2016)

Transporte aéreo de cargas representa 0,03% (0,6 bilhões de tku) da movimentação.

Road

(64,9%)

Rail

(15%)

Coastline shipping

(10,5%)

Inland shipping (5,3%)

Pipelines (4,4%)

General cargo

(54,2%)

Non-agriculture bulk solids

(24,3%)

Bulk liquids

(14,9%)

Agriculture bulk solids

(4,4%)

428

360

143

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Po

we

r g

en

era

tio

n (

TWh

)

Year

1%

93%

4%

2%

1990

3%62%

23%12%

2015

Power supply by energy source

Total

Hydro

Fossil fuels

Wind, biomass and solar

Nuclear

2001: Blackout

2011-2014•••••

Unfavorable

meteorological conditions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Po

we

r g

en

era

tio

n (

TWh

)

Ano

Power generation from fossil fuels

Natural gas (-2,0%)

Oil products (-16,9%)

Coal (+2,6%)

Challenges for power generation

Map data source: Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Recursos Hídricos

• Hydraulic potential

located in high demand

and rugged terrain

areas is depleted;

• Remaining hydraulic

potential is located in

the Amazon Basin:

Due to terrain

characteristics, low

storaging capacity

Undesired social

and environmental

impacts

Challenges for power generation

Map data source: Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Recursos Hídricos

• Brazil has potential for

solar, wind and biomass

power generation

• Main challenges to be

addressed:

Stability of the

Power System

Costs and

consumer pricing

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(MtC

O2e

)

Ano

Major emitting industrial activities

Metal industry

Fuel production

Cement production

Chemical industry

• Information and data disclosure

• Transparency of assumptions

• Ease of access for understanding information and

methodology

• Opening to dialogue

Lessons learned

david@energiaeambiente.org.br

Thank you!