Energy, Economic Growth and the Environment

John BarrettUniversity of Leeds

Scale of the challenge

Source: IPCC (2014)

UK Climate Challenge

UK Climate Challenge

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Gt C CCC

Suggested Targets

Production

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Gt C

UK Emissions 2012 – 2100 to achieve equitable 2 degree benchmark with 67% probability

97% reduction by 2050

Comparison of 2 degree equitable reduction with CCC budgets

67% reduction by 2027

Global trade

Source: Barrett et al (2013)

Global trade

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Meg

aton

nes

CO2e

UK comsumption-basedemissions

UK territorial emissions

Source: Barrett et al (2013)

Global trade

0

200

400

600

800

1000

120019

90

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

Gt C

O2e

Territorial Emissions

80% reduction target

Consumption Emissions

Additional burden

Source: www.emissions.leeds.ac.uk

Energy demand

Source: DUKES (2015)

Energy demand

Source: DUKES (2015)

Energy demand

Source: DUKES (2015)

43%

15%

22%

20%

Industry

Other

Transport

Domestic

Energy demand

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

2010 -

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Eora ImportsEora Domestic

Peta

Joul

es

EU Energy Flows

Linking energy to the global economy

Direct Efficiency Options

• Improvements in material efficiency

• Heat transfer• Fuel substitution

Direct energy efficiency options

Source: Climate Strategies (2014)

Direct energy efficiency options

Source: Climate Strategies (2014)

Industry rebound effects

Source: Saunders (2013)

Energy services efficiency approach

• Lean Production• Service business

models• Waste recycling and

reduction• Circular economy• Material substitution

• Public sector procurement

• Lifetime optimisation• Good to services• Reducing waste

Findings inefficiencies – the car

Material manufacturing

5 – 15%

Vehiclesmanufacturing

20 – 25%

Car use

50 – 80%

Material Car occupancy

40 – 60%

Resource efficiency strategies

Source: Barrett and Scott(2012)

Policy Options

IPCC Summary: Based on Figure 10.15

Policy Options

Economy wide approach

• Materials tax• Energy demand target

and tax / market

Sector response

• Construction (NIPs, Allowable Solutions)

• Vehicles (Weight regulations, VAT exemptions)

Consumer solutions

• Mandatory warranties • Goods to services

Extending existing policies

Current regulation Possible addition Additional requirementsEcoDesign Directive Within current scope to set

requirements to address some aspects of embodied emissions, including minimum guaranteed product lifetimes and promoting modularity, upgrading and repair (European Union 2009).

More appropriate methods to be used for preparatory studies in the EcoDesign Directive, which used more recent data, accounted for technology development and took into account product lifetimes.

Energy Performance of Buildings Directive

Extend current requirements to include embodied energy in the integrated energy performance of buildings (Szalay 2007).

Standardisation of the calculation of embodied energy for building elements and processes.

Vehicle Emissions Performance Standard

Extend standards to include whole-lifetime emissions (Correia et al 2014).

Standardisation for the calculation of embodied emissions for vehicle elements and processes.

Extending existing policies

Climate policy Operational emissions

Embodied emissions Embodied emissions originating in EU ETS sectors

Emissions outside scope of EU climate mitigation policy

EU Non-EU Annex I

Non-Annex I

EU ETS 1.9 billion tonnes

- - - - -

Vehicle emissions standards

12% of the EU's emissions of CO2

173.24 56.42 116.23 110.91 234.98

Ecodesign Directive

- 99.52 35.51 92.52 59.24 168.31

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive

36% (commercial and residential only = 15%)

503.36 83.03 174.81 357.96 403.24

Distribution effects

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Co2e

(t)

Other

Miscellaneous goods and services

Restaurants and hotels

Education

Recreation and culture

Communication

Transport

Health

Household goods and services

Housing, fuel and power

Clothing and footwear

Alcoholic drinks, tobacco and narcotics

Food and non-alcoholic drinks

Adaptive dynamic policy

Source: Haasnoot et al (2013)

Further research

Economics of material efficiency – Implications for jobs, GDP, trade,

investment, deficitsDevelopment of a macro-economic model

Establishing industry responses to changing business models

Policy responses to material efficiency

Responses to changing in the construction sector

Case study analysis of different industry responses from construction, car

manufacturing and household durables

Agent based modelling of key actors from EU and national policy making

organisations

Development of a bottom up and top down model of building types