energy descent and new zealand agriculture
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Energy descent and New Zealand agriculture. Solis Norton November 24, 2011. For correspondence: [email protected]. Introduction. Exponential human growth is unsustainable - Bartlett Same lecture, 1600 times since 1969 – no effect Western world (ag) continues to intensify - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Energy descent and New Zealand
agriculture
Solis Norton
November 24, 2011
For correspondence: [email protected]
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Introduction
• Exponential human growth is unsustainable - Bartlett
• Same lecture, 1600 times since 1969 – no effect
• Western world (ag) continues to intensify
• ‘Peak everything’ is upon us
• IPCC and PCE reports call for redesign of agriculture toward
resilience and genuine sustainability
• Energy descent = de-intensification of agriculture
• What does this mean?
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Challenges to NZ ag
• Peak Oil -
• Climate change
• Environmental constraints
• Water constraints
• Market instability reflects increasing to maintain BAU
Agriculture faces unprecedented challenge
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Drivers of energy use in ag
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Drivers of energy use in ag
• Fuel • Fertiliser• Impact of oil price on these drivers• Impact of less of these drivers (like urea)• Globally, wider utilisation at lower rates is real
opportunity• Depends on equitable distribution…• Greater equity = faster transition for us
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Transition toward organics
Declining energy is synonymous with a transition toward organic production systems
Characteristics of organic systems
• Less energy intensive fertiliser
• Lower stocking rate
• Overall lower input per ha
• Lower output per ha ~25%
• Greater resilience to shocks?
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Output energy
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Efficient vs intensive
Organic production systems are less intensive• Lower inputs/ha• Lower outputs/ha
Organic systems are not more efficient
• Ability to convert input energy to output energy is same as conventional
• No scope to improve this on the scale required to match descent.
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EROI
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Food production will decline
• Do we grow foods that are in demand?
• Prioritise foods with a high EROI… cheap nutrition?
• Is this a risk or an opportunity? On what scale?
• Need a plan for this transition processes
• It will take time and energy to devise this plan
• How long? – 5 years? 10 years?
A plan and timeline
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Transition experience
Management system
Ene
rgy
prod
uced
in m
ilk (
MJ/
ha)
010
000
2000
030
000
4000
050
000
Conv Trans Conv Trans Conv Trans Conv Trans Conv Trans
Ref P=0.13 P=0.02 P<0.00 P<0.00 P<0.00
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
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Building resilience
• Change ag currency from money to energy
• Avoid ‘lost decades’ following turbulence
• This will take us further into descent
• The longer we wait the harder it will be to effect the
necessary changes
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Leadership group
• New Zealand has agriculture and the All Blacks
• Set a precedent for other countries to follow
• Need a starting point and a new language…
• Initiate with small pan-industry leadership group
• Minimal governmental input, 300k/yr
• Create a plan and estimate a timeline
• Communicate
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Group composition
• Chairman
• Energy specialist(s)
• Industry reps (dairy, sheep/beef, etc)
• Economist
• Doer
• Maximum number of 8 people
• Linked to key NZ agriculture bodies
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Existing pathways
• FarmsOnLine – contact all the farmers!
• FarmIQ – demand driven integrated value chain for red meat
• Fonterra
• Meat and Wool NZ
• DINZ
• MAF
• Farmer groups…
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Discussion
Driven by profit or sustainability?
The coming challenges are unavoidable
No framework or even language exists to meet them
The time for extensive research to assess plans grows short
A small dedicated group is one alternative to investigate options and communicate issues
Cheap to run and well connected, it could offer real benefit
Action while action is still easy.