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Energy, Coal & Air Pollution in the UK, 1973-2013
Prof. Peter J G PearsonDirector, Low Carbon Research Institute of Wales
(LCRI)
Cardiff University, UK
Presentation for Workshops in
Sijiazhuang and Wuhan, China, 8 & 9 January 2014
Organised by British Embassy, Beijing
Outline: three sections
Changes in energy production & use, 1970-2012
– These changes had a major influence on UK air pollution
Changes in air pollution emissions, 1970-2012
– Associated with changes in energy production & use
The UK low carbon energy transition & policy issues for
the future
– the challenges of balancing energy system governance
issues, energy policy objectives & economic development
1. Changes in UK energy production &
use, 1970-2012
UNCLASSIFIED
UK transition in primary energy sources & outline of two
destabilisation periods for coal, 1880-2000
Source: Turnheim & Geels (2012); based on data from Fouquet & Pearson(1998:21) . See their paper for more explanation.
UK production & consumption of primary fuels, 1970-2012
Since 2005, total consumption
has fallen by 2% per year.
Total energy production fell each
year after 1999.
Natural gas production now 64%
below 2000 peak. Oil 44%
below 1999 level.
UK again import dependent after
2000.
UK productionUK inland consumption
UK production & consumption
Source: DECC (2013, Charts 1.1.1, 1.1.2, 1.1.4
UK final energy consumption, 1970-2012
In 1970, industry sector (including
iron & steel) biggest user, at 44 %
of total consumption.
This share fell to 18% in 2012.
Domestic sector share stable at
about 30% since 1980.
Greatest growth in transport: 19% in
1970; doubled to 38% in 2012.
--------------------------------------------------
In 1970, coal & other solid fuels
were 32 % of final consumption -
fell to 2% in 2012.
Natural gas consumption tripled:
10% in 1970 to 33% in 2012.
Electricity rose from 11% in 1970 to
20% in 2012.
Petroleum fell from 47% in 1970 to
43% in 2012.
Energy consumption by final user
Final energy consumption by type of fuel
Source: DECC (2013, Charts 1.1 .6, 1.1.7.
UK coal output, imports & employment (1970-2012)
UK coal output peaked in
1913 at 292 million tonnes
(mt); 3,020 deep mines; 1.1
million workers
Downward trend in output
since mid-1950s
Miner’s strike 1984-85
Many mines closed from
1986
Electricity privatised in 1990;
coal imports rising
Faster mine closures 1992-
93
Coal privatised 1994
2012: UK coal output 17mt;
imports 45mt; 6000 workers
Data Source:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/224633/coal_since_1853_historical_data.xls
Miners
’ Strike
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
198
0
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
199
4
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
200
8
2010
2012
Tho
usa
nd
s
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Coal Imports
Opencast Output
Deepmined Output
Employment (righthand scale; 000s)
0il price
rises,
‘73, ‘79
Coal
privatised
UK Consumption of Coal, 1970-2012
Source: DECC (2013)
Since 1970,
coal’s main
role as
feedstock for
electricity
generating
power stations
Miners’
strike
Coal
privatised
Electricity
privatised
UK Consumption of Coal, 1970-2012
Total coal consumption for all uses fell by 59% from 157 million
tonnes (mt) in 1970 to 64mt in 2012.
Coal for electricity peaked at 90mt in 1980. In 80-90mt range
until 1991(except miners’ strike).
Coal for electricity fell from 1991 until 1999, as UK’s energy
mix got more diverse
Environmental regulations (UK & EC), high coal prices &
electricity privatisation made natural gas more attractive to
generators.
In 2012, 86% of all coal use was for electricity compared with
only 49% in 1970.
Coal’s major role is now feedstock for
electricity generation
The decline of the UK coal industry after 1970
New Conservative Government elected 1979, re-elected 1983
Agenda: break power of National Union of Mineworkers (NUM);
change inefficient state-owned monopoly into viable private firm
1984-85 NUM strike a turning point for coal
Strike ended in Spring 1985 after much bitterness & hardship
Mid-1970s governments had unrealistic plans to increase coal
output to 170mt by 2000 – the actual output was 31mt.
By 1980 coal had lost its gas production market & most
industrial & domestic sales; dependent on favourable contracts
from state-owned electricity firm
The remains of the coal industry were privatised in 1994
UK Fuel input for electricity generation, 1970-2102
1970: coal was more than 2/3 of fuel input for electricity.
Oil use peaked in 1972, at 29% of fuel input, but fell after 1973 oil supply/price crisis.
Nuclear share grew from 11% in 1970 to 29% of fuel input - but has fallen since.
EC ban on gas in power generation until 1991; then rapid growth after electricity privatisation.
Share of other fuels (landfill gas, co-firing, waste combustion & wind) rose to 11% by 2012.
Data source:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/224644/electricity_since_1920_historic
al_data.xls
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
of
oil
eq
uiv
ale
nt
Other
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Volume (Million tonnes oil equivalent)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Other
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Shares (%)
2. Changes in UK air pollution emissions,
1970-2012
UNCLASSIFIED
UK electricity: CCGTs & emissions, 1991-2000
After 1990 electricity privatisation, rapid
investment in CCGTs, using North Sea gas –
called the ‘Dash for Gas’
Gas & nuclear have much lower pollution
emission factors than coal & oil
From 1990-1996: electricity generated rose by
9%, fuel input fell by 8%, CO2 fell by 20%,
SO2 fell by 51% and NO2 by 43%. Why?
Changing capacity & fuel mix (inc. nuclear)
Rising power station fuel efficiency ,
especially CCGTs
Enhanced NOx & SOx emission control
– New low NOx burners at coal-fired
stations
– introduction from 1993 of flue-gas
desulphurisation (FGD) on coal plants
By 1996, 59% fall in total SO2 emissions
from 1980 baseline; 9% ahead of United
Nations Economic Commission for Europe
(UNECE) target level for year 2000
Cumulative installed capacity, combined
cycle gas turbines (CCGT), 1991-2000, MW
Source: Kern (2012)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
CO2.
SO2
NOx
Electricity generated
Index of Emissions per unit of Electricity
Generated, UK, 1989-96 (1990 = 100)
CCGTs: cumulative
installed capacity
Source: Pearson (2000)
Trends in UK air pollutant emissions, 1970-2012
Long term decrease in
emissions of all pollutants
covered
CO2 (not shown) fell after
1991
Electricity privatisation made
it much easier for UK to
meet United Nations
Economic Commission for
Europe’s (UNECE) 2nd
Sulphur Protocol targets.
And the 2003 requirements
of the EC’s 1988 Large
Combustion Plant Directive
(88/609/EEC)
And to the Kyoto targets to
cut CO2 to 1990 levels by
2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ammonia
Nitrogen Oxides
Sulphur Dioxide
Non-methane volatileorganic compoundspm10
pm2.5
Trends in UK emissions of SOx, NOx, non-methane Volatile Organic
Compounds (VOCs), ammonia & particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5):
indexes, 1970 = 100
Data source: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/266491/website__trends-
air-emissions_2012.xls. See also:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/266489/Emissions_of_air_pollutants_sta
tistical_release_2013.pdf
Long term decrease in UK emissions of all pollutants covered
For PM10, PM2.5 & non-methane VOCs, the
rate of decline was fastest in1990s & has slowed
Reductions came from regulatory controls &
other means, such as:
– Switching from coal to gas, nuclear & renewables
in power stations (but emission reductions were
not an aim of 1990 electricity privatisation)
– Cutting fuel use, partly through higher efficiency
– Changes in industrial processes
– Pollutant capture or conversion (e.g. catalytic
converters on vehicles from 1993, flue gas
desulphurisation (FGD) on coal power stations,
low-Nox burners);
– Behaviour change
– Changing economic structure & conditions
Energy use & Air Pollution in London,
‘London’s air quality has improved dramatically since the 1950s when legislation was
introduced ... ‘But despite this, air pollution is still an issue for Londoners, affecting health
and everyday quality of life.’ (Mayor of London, 2010)
‘Since the Mayor’s Air Quality Strategy was published, Defra has reported that London
now meets the PM10 requirements set by the European Commission. However, along with
many other European cities, parts of London are not meeting EU targets for nitrogen
dioxide (NO2).’ (Mayor of London, 2013)
Energy use in London 1950-2000
Source: Mayor of London (2002), Figs. 3 & 4
Annual average smoke & SO2
concentrations in London
International, European & national standards for air quality
The UK is compliant with its 2010 national emission ceilings for air pollutants.
The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Convention on
Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution has agreed protocols, including the
Gothenburg Protocol - sets national emission reduction targets for 2020.
The EU ambient air quality directives set limits/ targets for concentrations of
pollutants in outdoor air (including fine PM), to protect health & ecosystems
UK meets European air quality standards for nearly all pollutants. The main
challenge is in meeting Nox limits alongside roads in cities & towns.
The EC is reviewing air quality policy. EU Directives include:
– Ambient Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC) and Directive 2004/107/EC:
which set limits for pollutant concentrations in outdoor air
EU National Emissions Ceilings Directive (2001/81/EC): sets limits on total
annual emissions of important air pollutants for all member states to help reduce
‘transboundary air pollution’ .
National legislation & standards: air quality is a devolved matter, though the UK
government leads on European & international legislation.
UK national legislation & standards on air quality*
UK government leads on European & international legislation
But devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales & Northern
Ireland are responsible for their air quality policy & legislation
Part IV of The Environment Act 1995 sets provisions for
protecting air quality in the UK & local air quality management
The Air Quality (Standards) Regulations 2010 transposes into
English law the requirements of European Directives 2008/50/EC
& 2004/107/EC on ambient air quality. Equivalent regulations
have been made by the devolved administrations
The Air Quality (England) Regulations 2000 set national
objectives for local authorities in England
The National Emission Ceilings Regulations 2002 transpose into
UK legislation the requirements of the National Emission Ceilings
Directive (2001/81/EC)* Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/protecting-and-enhancing-our-urban-and-natural-environment-to-improve-public-health-and-wellbeing/supporting-
pages/international-european-and-national-standards-for-air-quality
Changing views on Pollution Control in the UK (i)
In 1988, after 5 years of resistance & complaints from Scandinavia, UK
accepted EC Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) targets, to cut
national & trans-boundary damage from acid rain
This required challenging, potentially costly reductions of SOx & NOx,
especially from coal-fired power plants.
By 1990 the UK government agreed Climate Change was a major
global challenge & endorsed using economic instruments to address
pollution.
Growing acceptance by UK & European governments of need to use
energy policy to deal with greenhouse gases
Included gradual return to state co-ordination & planning, after a period
when the private market had been expected to deliver the objectives of
energy & climate policy
UK position on trans-boundary air pollution & CO2 much easier after
the 1990s ‘Dash for Gas’ displaced many coal plants
Changing views on Pollution Control in the UK (ii)
Many changes in industry, energy production & use from the 1970s
cut air pollution but not because of environmental policies
Other pollution cuts were caused by environmental policies &
especially by worries about impacts on human health & quality of life
Recently UK has recognised the importance of ecosystem services
(http://uknea.unep-wcmc.org/), the need to estimate economic
benefits & costs of pollution control (https://www.gov.uk/air-quality-
economic-analysis) and scientific/ medical evidence
(http://www.comeap.org.uk/)
Some continue to worry about the costs & growth implications of
pollution control, but there is little evidence to indicate big trade-offs
and no-one wants to return to the London smogs & bad air quality.
UK Committee on Climate Change suggests that the growth penalty
for meeting the 2050 CO2 targets is relatively small.
But tensions remain between energy policy objectives, energy system
governance & energy technology choices, as we discuss next.
3. The UK low carbon energy transition &
policy issues for the future
UNCLASSIFIED
The UK Low Carbon Transition
1940s: energy utilities (coal, gas, electricity) nationalised
1987-1994: energy utilities privatised; ‘Dash for Gas’
2008: Department of Energy & Climate Change created
2008: Climate Change Act (all-party political support)
– State commitment: cut GHG emissions to 80% of 1990 level by 2050
– Independent Committee on Climate Change recommends 5-year
carbon budgets (caps), 15 years into future
2009: Low Carbon Transition Plan; 2011: Carbon Plan
2013: Energy Bill – includes Electricity Market Reform:
– UK carbon price floor for electricity
– Feed-in-tariffs (CfDs) for low carbon electricity
– Capacity market (auctions for new capacity, inc. storage & DSR)
– Emissions performance standard for new fossil stations
Where next?
Realising Transition Pathways Research Project (2012-16)
Aims:
– Develop three transition pathways to 2050, for a ‘more electric’ UK low carbon future, including heat & transport
– Do Integrated ‘whole system’ assessments of pathways’ technical, economic, social & environmental implications
– Inform thinking/ decisions on low carbon transitions & ‘how to get to a low carbon electricity system from here’
Multi-disciplinary University Research Consortium
– 9 UK universities: team of engineers, social scientists & innovation specialists; funded by UK Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
– http://www.realisingtransitionpathways.org.uk/
Project focus on 3 ‘actor groups’ & governance
State, Market & Civil Society groups follow different ‘logics’ that
frame their views of the world & other actors; they try to ‘enrol’
others into their way of thinking:
– Central Co-ordination sees a dominant role for state actors
to co-ordinate energy systems to deliver policy goals
– Market Rules says energy policy objectives are best achieved
by market actors competing in a high-level policy framework
– Thousand Flowers sees citizens playing a leading role in how
the energy system operates & is governed
We used this to explore UK low carbon energy transition
pathways to 2050, with each pathway built around one logic
Pathways are not predictions but tools for thinking about the
future
Three Transition Pathways for UK Electricity
Market Rules
Limited interference in market arrangements; high carbon price
Large companies dominate; big technologies in ‘highly electric’ future – inc.
coal/gas with Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS), nuclear power, offshore wind
80% generation linked to high-voltage in 2050: grid reinforcement
Central Co-ordination
Central Government & Strategic Energy Agency commission low-carbon
electricity generation from big companies
Via large-scale centralised technologies
Cooperation & tensions between key actors
Thousand Flowers
More local, bottom-up diverse solutions led by Energy Service Companies (big &
small), local communities & NGOs: closer engagement of end-users
Local leadership in decentralized options (50% share)
Key technologies: onshore & offshore wind, renewable Combined Heat and
Power (CHP) & solar PhotoVoltaic; ‘smart grid’ technologies to handle power flows
High level challenges for the UK Transition
Balancing the Policy Trilemma:
– Reduce carbon emissions & address other pollutants
– Maintain energy security (supply-demand balance, supply diversity)
– Affordability, equity & competitiveness of energy services (household
bills; investment & system costs; impacts on trade)
Systemic factors:
– Technical feasibility
– Institutional Flexibility
– Social acceptability
– Environmental impacts – physical & human
– Economic impacts - Who benefits? Who pays?
Evolving governance:
– where will/should the current State/Market hybrid go? How far should
Civil society be involved?
A Perspective on Energy Transitions & ‘Green Growth’
Energy transitions & ‘green growth’ depend on the
interplay within & between 3 policy ‘spaces’:
– Energy policy objectives
» How to balance Environmental Pollution & Climate Change,
Energy Security & Equity, Affordability & Competitiveness
– Energy system governance
» What roles for the Market, the State & Civil society?
– Technology & growth
» How to develop technologies that contribute both to
environment and economic development (sometimes called
‘green growth’)
The interplay of these policy areas will have big
influences on energy transition & ‘green growth’ pathways
Bringing the choices together in the UK
Successful energy transitions & ‘green growth’ will be
influenced by how the UK handles these choices
The UK has to think about
– What priorities should policies aim for?
– Who should aim for them & with what forms of governance?
– With what types of technologies & practices?
How might the interplay between energy policy, governance &,
technology & ‘green growth’ play out in future energy system
transitions?
Decisions about these choices will exert major long-term
influences on energy transition pathways & outcomes
– With consequences for energy policy, industrial policy,
environmental policy & air pollution
Sources & Notes
Note: This presentation draws on research by the author & colleagues in the Realising Transition Pathways project, funded by EPSRC
(Grant EP/K005316/1) http://www.realisingtransitionpathways.org.uk/. He is responsible for all views stated.
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