energy and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Energy and society
Week 1: Energy and Climate Policy
PB AF 595
Michael Lazarus & Matt Steuerwalt
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Overview of Day 1
• Introductions
• Syllabus and logistics
• Lecture/discussion: Energy and Society:
Past, Present, Future
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Syllabus and Logistics
• Syllabus is subject to change over coming weeks
• Mix of lectures, discussions, exercises/simulations, guest speakers
• Most classes split into two sessions: – 3:30-5:00 (part A), 5:00-6:20 (part B)
• Assignments – Required readings, plus responses (2)
– Problem set
– Wedges assignment
– Class project/presentation
– Draconian late assignment policy
• Best time to get Michael and Matt is after class
• Feedback encouraged!
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Follow emerging issues
• See list of URLs in course overview on
website
– Politico, BBC, NY Times, blogs
• Subscribe to and review Point Carbon
North America (biweekly)
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Expensive?
• Prices averaged over $94/barrel in 2011, $20 more
than average of last five years
• Prices dipped last week on news of 5th consecutive
month of Chinese manufacturing declines….to $105.
• US consumption is still double that of the next largest
user – China, but…
• China is now the #2 consumer of oil, and its growth
in demand in 2011 was half the incremental demand
globally.
What to Do?
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This: June 30, 2009 - “EPA approves California
auto emissions standard”, Reuters
•The Obama administration on Tuesday approved
California's long-standing bid to set its own tough
standards for vehicle emissions, a decision in tune with a
national plan to boost fuel efficiency and reduce
greenhouse gases linked to climate change
•In a brief statement, EPA said this decision marked a
return to the "traditional legal interpretation of the Clean
Air Act," an apparent swipe at the Bush administration,
which balked at granting this waiver and at imposing any
mandatory economy-wide limits on climate-warming
emissions.
•Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California: "After being
asleep at the wheel for over two decades, the federal
government has finally stepped up and granted California
its nation-leading tailpipe emissions waiver.“
•The American Petroleum Institute: "Using the Clean Air
Act to regulate greenhouse gases would impose costly
requirements for hundreds of thousands of businesses,
large and small, as well as schools, offices and buildings
across the United States."
Or this: Newt Gingrich has a plan to get gas to $2.50/gallon
Gingrich's plan is to boost domestic daily production by almost half by promoting drilling in
Alaska, off both coasts, the Gulf, and the US interior.
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Or that?
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Or perhaps, now this?
"Today I've come to Cushing, an oil town, because producing more oil and gas here at home
has been and will continue to be a critical part of an all-of-the-above energy strategy," Obama
said, speaking to a crowd of pipe workers, residents and officials from TransCanada, the
company seeking to build the pipeline.
LA Times March 22, 2012
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Coal is Still King – and China is the Kingdom
China’s consumption of coal rose 500% since 1980.
In 2009, china became a net importer and now consumes 50% of coal globally.
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“China now no. 1 in CO2
emissions; USA in second
position” – 2007 (and ever since)
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•House Passes Waxman-Markey Climate
Change Bill
•July 2009 •Late on Friday, June 26, 2009, as Congress was about to leave Washington for its
Fourth of July recess, the House of Representatives passed, by a margin of 219 to
212, The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454), authored by
Congressmen Henry Waxman of California and Edward Markey of Massachusetts.
The 1,428-page Waxman-Markey bill would establish a "cap and trade" program to
regulate U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and would create or expand myriad federal
programs designed to transform an economy based on energy produced almost
entirely by burning fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—to one based almost
entirely on alternative energy sources. To accomplish the latter goal, the bill
proposes to spend about $200 billion to promote various forms of "clean energy" and
energy efficiency while establishing new federal climate change standards affecting
many aspects of everyday life, such as local building codes, mortgages, and
homeowners insurance.
•U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Would be Reduced to 17 Percent of 2005
Levels by 2050
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Reactions to Durban
• COP17 agrees a timetable for a
new global climate agreement
• The UN climate talks in South
Africa have been heralded a
success after a deal was struck
on measures to cut global
carbon emissions.
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Climate Change Summit:
A deal in Durban
Something came out of it. Which is
probably better than nothing
The Economist
Headlines from IEA World Energy
Outlook 2011: What’s up?
• Short-term uncertainty does little to alter the longer-term picture
• Steps in the right direction, but the door to 2°C is closing
• Rising transport demand and upstream costs reconfirm the end of
cheap oil
• Golden prospects for natural gas
• Renewables are pushed towards centre stage
• Treading water or full steam ahead for coal?
• Second thoughts on nuclear would have far-reaching consequences
• The world needs Russian energy, while Russia needs to use less
• Achieving energy for all will not cost the earth
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This course will address the intersection of
energy and climate policy
• Energy and climate issues are linked, and their fate intertwined in the public policy agenda
• We will examine policy instruments and perspectives related to managing energy use, supply, and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, of which carbon dioxide (CO2) is main but not sole culprit
• We will touch more briefly on: – Other energy policy concerns: oil dependency, energy
resource availability, reliability, other environmental, social, and economic dimensions
– Mitigation strategies in agriculture and forestry
– Climate impacts, adaptation and geoengineering
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Take Gov. Gregoire’s Executive Order 07-02
It links the major energy and climate challenges
Energy and Climate Challenge Exec Order 07-02
Avoiding dangerous climate change Return GHG emissions to 1990
levels by 2020; 50% below 1990 by
2050…
Decreasing oil dependency, its
macroeconomic vulnerabilities and
geopolitical liabilities
Reduce expenditures on fuel
imported into the state 20% by 2020
Spurring innovation, economic
opportunity, and technology change
Create 25,000 clean energy sector
jobs by 2020 (compared with 8,400
jobs in 2004)
Enabling sustainable development
in the South (the developing world,
that is)…
(can’t do everything)
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Energy and Society: Past,
Present, Future
• Goals of energy policy
• Brief historical view on energy transitions
• Energy today, numbers and concepts – Energy use, resources, and technologies
• The times ahead
Energy Policy Goals
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Energy:
• Enabler of major social transformations
• Lifeblood of the industrial economy
• Prerequisite for poverty alleviation
• Linked to the major environmental,
social, and political stresses of our time
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Rather than crisis management
Converting to alternative fuels in response to the 1973 oil crisis,
Potlatch, Washington, Source: Wikipedia
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or silver bullet technological solutions • Not all work out as planned; this one
was going to be “too cheap to meter”
• Public concerns, cost overruns, $billions stranded in never-completed plants in 1980 and 90s, including the WPPS debacle here in WA state
Or, in our worst moments, both
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Energy policy must balance multiple
aims, such as: (Holdren, 2007)
ECONOMIC AIMS
• provide reliable fuel & electricity for basic needs & economic growth
• limit consumer costs of energy
• limit cost & vulnerability from imported oil
• help provide energy basis for economic growth elsewhere
ENVIRONMENTAL AIMS
• improve urban and regional air quality
• avoid nuclear-reactor accidents & waste-mgmt mishaps
• limit impacts of energy development on fragile ecosystems
• limit greenhouse gas contribution to climate change risks
NATIONAL SECURITY AIMS
• minimize dangers of conflict over oil & gas resources
• avoid spread of nuclear weapons from nuclear energy
• reduce vulnerability of energy systems to terrorist attack
• avoid energy blunders that perpetuate or create deprivation
History of Energy Transitions
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How did we get here?
A brief historical perspective
Source: Arnulf Grubler
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Drivers of Historical Energy
Transitions • Energy quality and
services provided (comfort, convenience, …impact?)
• Technological change
• Supply reliability and price volatility
• Not necessarily supply scarcity or policy initiative
• Often poorly represented in models/forecasts
Source: Arnulf Grubler
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What transitions lie ahead?
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Many technology transitions are
dismissed early on
• Especially by incumbent
interests, e.g.
– Buggy industry (vs. Model
T)
– Gas light industry (vs.
Edison’s light bulb)
• Seem inevitable only in
hindsight
• Others often oversold
– Hydrogen economy?
Can transitions be engineered?
• df
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Source: Rocky
Mountain Institute,
2011
Painting by numbers:
the language of energy and
climate analysis
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BP’s BAU
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 (BP, 2012)
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Large differences among
and within countries
In energy use and supply patterns due to resource
endowments and economic, natural (hot and cold
climates), and cultural circumstances.
What implications does this have for:
• Energy policy and trade?
• GHG emissions and reduction opportunities?
• International climate negotiations?
• Stakeholders and interests?
http://www.iea.org/textbase/stats/pdf_graphs/29TPESPI.pdf
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USA, China, World in 2005 (from Holdren, 2007)
USA China World
Population, millions 297 1306 6420
GDP/pers, 2005$ (ppp) 42000 7300 9150
Total energy supply, EJ 106 80 514
Oil consumption, EJ 42 15 175
Oil imports, Mb/d 12 3.4 50
Electricity generation, TWh 4200 2500 18200
Electricity share from coal 50% 80% 40%
C emitted in CO2, MtC 1700 1400 7500
ppp = at purchasing-power parity, EJ = exajoules, TWh = terawatt-hours, MtC = megatons of carbon in CO2. Total energy supply includes biomass fuels. Electricity generation is gross, not net.
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Energy units and terms:
• Units: so many different ways to say the same thing – Energy (stock): kcal, Joules (J, GJ, EJ) , BTUs, Quads, barrels, and barrels of oil
equivalent (BOE), TOE (tons oil equivalent), TCE …. Kilowatt-hours (kWh)
– Power (flow): Watts, kilowatts, kWh/yr, and aMW (a northwest specialty)
• Power prefixes from K - kilo (thousand or 103)) to E - exa (1018)
• Types of energy: – Primary energy (what you nature gives you)
– Final energy (what you buy and consume)
– Useful energy (what you can actually do with it)
– The difference among these is conversion (coal to electricity, crude oil to gasoline, gasoline to vehicle travel) and other losses
• Reserves – Proved, Economically Recoverable, etc
• Simple scale, unit, and term errors frequently create misperceptions and cloud debates (e.g. value of wind power, ANWR reserves, internet and electricity)
Don’t worry… you don’t need to know the details, just that they matter, and when and how to check them.
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Global energy flows from resource/reserves to primary energy
to conversions to final/delivered/end-use energy… by sector
Oil refining, gas processing, and other conversion losses not shown
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Navigating the Numbers, WRI, 2006 http://pdf.wri.org/navigating_numbers.pdf
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Understanding economic, societal,
and technological drivers
• Among the simplest, most important of analytical tools in energy/climate analysis
Dan Kammen, ER100/200 lecture (2007)
… * CO2 (t) = CO2 (t)
energy(J)
What does this tell us about past
and future drivers of energy use?
• And about levers for change? 41
BP Energy Outlook 2030 (BP, 2012)
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US energy, economy, and emissions
Kammen, 2007
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Why did this happen?
Kammen, 2007
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Decoupling
• Structural economic change
• Saturation of demands
• Energy efficiency investments
– (savings >$170 billion/yr since 1990)
• …factors that help explain why past projections were so off the mark
– Neglect of “end-use analysis”
• and provide caution about reliance of forecasts
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Competing visions 30 years ago ( Lovins)
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Lovins 30 years later…
• What did he get right, what did he get wrong?
• Is his (hard/soft) premise still relevant today?
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And why does it happen differently?
Do you prefer this scale….
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Or this one….
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The road ahead
• What are the major challenges for energy
policy?
– Scarcity?
– Distribution?
– Impacts?
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Are we running out of energy?
Out of oil? Not really…
IPCC, 2007
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Another, simpler way to look at it (Holdren, 2007)
Some mid-range estimates of world energy resources. Units are terawatt-
years (TWy). Total world energy use is ~15 TWy/year.
TWy
OIL & GAS, CONVENTIONAL 1,000
UNCONVENTIONAL OIL & GAS (excluding clathrates) 2,000
COAL 5,000
METHANE CLATHRATES 20,000
OIL SHALE 30,000
URANIUM in conventional reactors 2,000
...in breeder reactors 2,000,000
FUSION (if the technology succeeds) 250,000,000,000
RENEWABLE ENERGY (available energy per year)
sunlight on land 30,000
energy in the wind 2,000
energy captured by photosynthesis 120
Plenty of Coal
It has been estimated that there are over 847 billion tonnes of
proven coal reserves worldwide. This means that there is enough
coal to last us around 118 years at current rates of production.
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Coal production/consumption by
region
Supply does not mean
demand
Projected US power plant additions
for the next 25 years are 60%
natural gas.
What is driving this projection?
How good is it?
From EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011
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Oil reserves-to-production (R/P)
ratios •Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio
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What about all that “peak oil” talk?
• In 1969, King Hubbert developed an exponential equation (resulting in the bell shaped curves below) based on whale oil markets to predict the shape of future oil production
• Countries overstate reserves; companies overstate advanced technologies
But…
• Limited historical evidence for the curves (whale oil), especially for the symmetry condition (decline after peak)
• Ignores market response and substitution possibilities
• Doesn’t account for advanced technologies (enhanced recovery) or higher cost resources
Campbell and Lahererre, Scientific American March 1998
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What about all that “peak oil” talk?
• In 1969, King Hubbert developed an exponential equation (resulting in the bell shaped curves) based on whale oil markets
• Appears to predict the rise/plateau of oil production
• Countries tend to overstate reserves; companies overstate advanced technologies
But…
• Limited historical evidence for the curves (whale oil), especially for the symmetry condition (decline after peak)
• Ignores market response and substitution possibilities
• Doesn’t account for advanced technologies (enhanced recovery) or higher cost resources
Campbell and Lahererre, Scientific American March 1998
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We are running out of
cheap, conventional oil
• With uncertain implications for climate, environment, economy and conflict
• Canada’s oil sands contain more than all of Saudi Arabia; US shale deposits, even more
• China could produce up to 1 mbd/day of coal liquids by 2020 (current global oil production – 50 mbd/day)
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What might replace conventional oil?
Hydrocarbon alternatives (as
shown here)
OR
Biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel)
OR
Electricity
OR
Hydrogen?
Farrell and Brandt, 2006
Major oil trade movements •Major trade movements 2010 •Trade flows worldwide (million tonnes)
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Dan Kammen, ER100/200 lecture (2007)
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But please, no conspiracy theories
http://www.judicialwatch.org/IraqOilMap.pdf
Chart of crude oil prices since
1861 •Crude oil prices 1861 – 2010 •US dollar per barrel •World events
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When global leaders meet in Rio this June, a very
different energy issue will be center stage
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Major challenge: Meeting energy needs
for (sustainable) development
• High oil prices and balance of payment problems hit developing countries hardest
• 1.3 billion people do not have electricity and 2.7 billion people still rely on the traditional use of biomass for cooking
http://www.planetunderpressure2012.net/pdf/policy_energy.pdf
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As the International Energy Agency’s
(IEA) 2011 World Energy Outlook notes
• Four-fifths of the total energy-related CO2 emissions permissible by 2035 in the 450 Scenario are already “locked-in” by our existing capital stock
– The 450 SCENARIO” equals temperature rise of 2C
• “we are on an even more dangerous track, for a temperature increase of 6°C or more.”
• “If stringent new action is not forthcoming by 2017, the energy-related infrastructure then in place will generate all the CO2 emissions allowed in the 450 Scenario up to 2035, leaving no room for additional power plants, factories and other infrastructure unless they are zero-carbon…”
If we miss Two Degrees?
• “For increases in global average temperature exceeding
1.5-2.5°C and in concomitant atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations, there are projected to be major
changes in ecosystem structure and function, species’
ecological interactions, and species’ geographical
ranges, with predominantly negative consequences for
biodiversity, and ecosystem goods and services e.g.,
water and food supply.” (IPCC Working group II summary)
• Or, for the non-scientific, uh-oh.
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No one promised this would be easy
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Major Challenge: Lack of a “silver bullet”
“No known energy option is free of question marks” (Holdren, 2007)”
• conventional oil & gas… not enough resources?
• coal, tar sands, oil shale… not enough atmosphere?
• biomass… not enough land?
• wind & hydro… not enough good sites?
• photovoltaics… too expensive?
• nuclear fission… too unforgiving?
• nuclear fusion… too difficult?
• hydrogen… energy to make it? means to store it?
• end-use efficiency… not enough smart end- users?
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Many opportunities for innovation
• And yet public long-term investment, in particular research and development funding, has been stagnant for nearly 2 decades
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2004 2005 2006
$ B
illi
on
s
John Doerr:
Sustainable technologies are the
next big thing ... the mother of all
markets.
Private investment in clean energy
Source: K.C. Golden
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Major challenge: Managing tensions among
the goals of energy policy (Holdren, 2007)
• Long-term investment vs. short-term cost concerns – Electricity rates to transit investments
• Energy security and long increased domestic fossil-fuel production (for security) vs. protection of fragile ecosystems
• Increased nuclear-energy production (for greenhouse-gas abatement) vs. reducing risks of nuclear accidents & terrorism
• Free markets vs. market failures – Public goods (like national security) & externalities (like pollution) are
largely unpriced
– “market failures” from abuse of monopoly power, lack of information, perverse incentives, short time horizons, etc.
– Role of subsidies
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Summary of Major Energy Policy
Challenges
• Meeting energy needs for (sustainable)
development
• Managing tensions among the competing
goals of energy policy
• Avoiding intolerable environmental costs,
in particularly, dangerous climate change – Twenty years after US ratified UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (Rio), there is still no
requirement to reduce CO2 emissions.