“energiewende” and cost mechanisms charlotte loreck energy and climate division Öko-institut...
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“Energiewende” and cost mechanisms
Charlotte Loreck
Energy and Climate DivisionÖko-Institut e.V.
Berlin
for Heinrich Böll Foundation5 December 2012
Agenda
• German electricity mix
• Political Targets
• Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market
• Historic Prices and Explanation patterns
• Surcharge for RES
• Special analysis for future solar costs
2
Agenda
• German electricity mix
• Political Targets
• Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market
• Historic Prices and Explanation patterns
• Surcharge for RES
• Special analysis for future solar costs
3
4
Power Plants in Germany
Federal Network Agency ca. 96 GW conventional (Aug 2012) ca. 70 GW renewable (Jun 2012)
Installed Capacity-> 166 GW
Source: Federal Environment Agency
25%
18%
14%
18%
3%
8%
5%
1% 3%1% 4%
55
Hard coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewable
Gross Electricity Production in Germany
Source: AG Energiebilanzen; own figure
Oil, Others
Lignite
2011: 612,1 TWhConsumption: 605,8 TWhExport: 6,3 TWh
20%
6
4,4
29,1
5,5
1,7
25,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
GW
Geothermal
Photovoltaics
Biogenic waste
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Development of renewable capacities in Germany
Source: AG EEStat; own figure
7
Source: AG EEStat; own figure
18,1
48,9
31,9
5,0
19,3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
TW
h
Geothermal
Photovoltaics
Biogenic waste
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Development of renewable electricity production in Germany
Agenda
• German electricity mix
• Political Targets
• Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market
• Historic Prices and Explanation patterns
• Surcharge for RES
• Special analysis for future solar costs
8
9Source: http://de.wikiactu.com, own figure
Atomic Energy Act 2011
8 out of service
9 operating till 2015 - 2022
2015
20222021
201720222019
20212022
2021
10
2020
2030
2040
2050
German targets for electricitygross consumption
80%renewable
-10% (compared to 2008)
-25% (compared to 2008)
65%
50%
35%
Energy Concept of the German Government, Autumn 2010
Agenda
• German electricity mix
• Political Targets
• Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market
• Historic Prices and Explanation patterns
• Surcharge for RES
• Special analysis for future solar costs
11
electricity procurement; 6,32
sale; 2,09
grid charges; 5,75
surcharge RES; 3,53surcharge CHP; 0,03
concession levy; 1,62
taxes; 6,11
25,45 ct /kWh
Consumer price for electricity Germany 2011
12
Source: Federal Network Agency, own figure
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
0 5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
55.000
60.000
65.000
70.000
75.000
80.000
85.000
90.000
95.000
100.000S
ho
rt T
erm
Mar
gin
al C
ost
s in
€/M
Wh
Capacity in MW
Renewable Energies
Nuclear
Lignite
Hard Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Demand
Merit order of power plants
price
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
0 5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
55.000
60.000
65.000
70.000
75.000
80.000
85.000
90.000
95.000
100.000S
ho
rt T
erm
Mar
gin
al C
ost
s in
€/M
Wh
Capacity in MW
Renewable Energies
Nuclear
Lignite
Hard Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Demand
14
Merit order – without nuclear
price
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
0 5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
55.000
60.000
65.000
70.000
75.000
80.000
85.000
90.000
95.000
100.000S
ho
rt T
erm
Mar
gin
al C
ost
s in
€/M
Wh
Capacity in MW
Renewable Energies
Nuclear
Lignite
Hard Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Demand
15
Merit order – with more RES
price
Agenda
• German electricity mix
• Political Targets
• Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market
• Historic Prices and Explanation patterns
• Surcharge for RES
• Special analysis for future solar costs
16
Historic Prices Base Power: day ahead & Y +1
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EU
R/M
Wh
(NC
V)
Base Power Spot
Base Power Y+1
CZ Base PowerY+1
30 Periode gleit.Mittelw. (BasePower Spot)
Historic Prices (Fuel, CO2, Base Power )
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EU
R/E
UA
EU
R/M
Wh
(NC
V)
Base Power Y+1
CZ Base Power Y+1
Gas Y+1 (Plant Gate)
Coal Y+1 (Plant Gate)
EUA Y+1
Historic Prices (Base) and Explanation
19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EU
R/E
UA
EU
R/M
Wh
(NC
V)
Base Power Y+1SMC coal plantCoal Y+1EUA Y+1
Learning
Gaming?
Fundamentals
Historic Prices (Peak) and Explanation
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
EU
R/E
UA
EU
R/M
Wh
(NC
V)
SMC coal/gas plant (50%/50%)
Gas Y+1
Peak Power Y+1
EUA Y+1
Historic Prices (Peak) and Explanation
21
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
EU
R/E
UA
EU
R/M
Wh
(NC
V)
SMC coal/gas plant (75%/25%)
Gas Y+1
Peak Power Y+1
EUA Y+1
Agenda
• German electricity mix
• Political Targets
• Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market
• Historic Prices and Explanation patterns
• Surcharge for RES
• Special analysis for future solar costs
22
electricity procurement; 6,32
sale; 2,09
grid charges; 5,75
surcharge RES; 3,53surcharge CHP; 0,03
concession levy; 1,62
taxes; 6,11
25,45 ct /kWh
Consumer price for electricity Germany 2011
23
Source: Federal Network Agency, own figure
24
Renewable Energies Act:
• guaranteed and priorised feed-in
• guaranteed payment
Feed-in tariff for RES
§
25
€
MWh
demand
supply curve of conventional power plants
electricity price
RES-electricity production
guaranteedfeed-in tariff
proceeds for TSOs of RES-sale
differential costs
are reallocated to all consumers
= RES surcharge
RES-costs and whole sale market
26
RES-surcharge: difference 2013 - 2012
0.01
0.21
0.21
0.05
0.26
0.12
0.48
0.31
0.02Hydro
Biomass
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Solar
Expansion of privilege
Equalisation of balance
Liquidity reserve
Other
Contributions of the most important factors influencing the increase of the German EEG surcharge in 2013 (5,3 ct / kWh) compared to 2012 (3,6 ct / kWh)
1.68 ct/kWh overall
Source: Calculations by Oeko-Institut
Agenda
• German electricity mix
• Political Targets
• Costs and Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market
• Surcharge for RES
• Special analysis for future solar costs
27
Decrease of future feed-in tariff for photovoltaics
28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
ct /
kWh
<=10 kWp
<=40 kWp
<=1000 kWp
<=10000 kWp
Source: EEG, Calculations by Oeko-Institut
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TW
h
2015er
2014er
2013er
2012er
<=201114%
86% 68%
21%
11%
9%
18%
18%
56% 48%
15%
15%
15%
6%
47%
15%
15%
15%
8%
Future solar electricity production
… in the years 2012 bis 2016 ordered by construction years of plants
Source: Calculations by Oeko-Institut
30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mrd
. €
2015er
2014er
2013er
2012er
<=2011
93%
12%
4%
79%
11%
7%3%
77%
10%
7%5%2%
76%
10%
7%5%2%
7%
84%
Future costs for solar electricity
… in the years 2012 bis 2016 ordered by construction years of plants
Source: Calculations by Oeko-Institut
31
2,26 2,26 2,26 2,26 2,26
0,15 0,25 0,24 0,24 0,24
0,08 0,12 0,12 0,120,05 0,05 0,05
0,01 0,01
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ct/
kW
h
2015er
2014er
2013er
2012er
<=2011
Future share of RES surcharge for solar electricity
… in the years 2012 bis 2016 ordered by construction years of plants
Source: Calculations by Oeko-Institut
Future price development for consumers?
32
• liberalised market
• more RES„energy only markets“ will not be enough
Source: Federal Network Agency, own figure
capacity payments?
electricity procurement; 6,32
sale; 2,09
grid charges; 5,75
surcharge RES; 3,53surcharge CHP; 0,03
concession levy; 1,62
taxes; 6,11
25,45 ct /kWh
