end-use model for indonesia low-carbon development

Tsukuba, 23 January 2015

Center for Research on Energy PolicyINSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG

End-Use Model for Indonesia Low-Carbon Development Pathways in Energy Sector

Retno G Dewi - Ucok W.R. Siagian - Bintang Yuwono - Iwan Hendrawan - Rias Parinderati

1. Introduction

2. Current Energy Situation in Indonesia

3. Energy and GHG Emission Model Using End-Use GAMS

4. Socio Economic Condition and Projection

5. Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector and GHG

Emission Reduction

OUTLINE

2pg.

3pg.

INTRODUCTION

LCD is long term vision (2050) of economic development in a low-carbon way

Challenge for achieving LCD is now in a global mainstream. Particular emphasis in short-term (2020) is to address options for achieving GHG reduction target (National Action Plan) up to 26% below the baseline using domestic budget and further up to 41% if there is international support.

Activities in achieving this reduction target are supported by PerPres 61/2011 (National Action Plan for GHGs Mitigation Action) and PerPres 71/2011 (GHGs Inventory).

LCD strategy is not to achieve world’s target on carbon intensity level; it is more to explore possibilities of the future development in a low-carbon way.

This publication presents ‘End-Use Model for Indonesia Low-Carbon Development Pathways in Energy Sector’ that is used for identifying development paths of energy sector and cost of development, GHG reduction potential if the development paths Toward to Low Carbon and costs of actions for reducing GHG in 2020 and 2050.

9%5%

31% 11%3%

41%

EnergyIPPUAgricultureLand-Use Change & ForestryPeat FireWaste

GHG SHARES1.1 GTCO2eq (2010)

4pg.

SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY ROLE

Inputs for Government of Indonesia in developing energy policy

Stakeholders

Stakeholders

Ministry of Industry

Ministry of Transport

…other Ministries MEMR (Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources)

DEN (National Energy

Council)

(dra/) RUEN (Na2onal

Energy Plan)

Stakeholders(Energy Supply)

SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY

President

MODEL & others input

Parlement

RUEN

KEN (Na2onal

Energy Policy)

Approval!

In response to climate change issues, GoI in 2010 announced ‘non binding commitment’ to reduce GHG emissions 26% below the baseline by 2020 with domestic budget and further up to 41% with international support.

5pg.

GHG PROJECTION

To achieve the target, the government developed mitigation actions plan that is published as National GHG Mitigation Action Plan (RAN GRK).

Emission level

target

GH

G E

mis

sion

s le

vel

BaU (Baseline)

2005 2020 2050

Reduction target ‘non-binding’ commitment (26% or 41%) in 2030

GHG PROJECTION

In-line with Low Carbon

Development Paths

Significant increased in energy demand over transportation and industrial sector.

6pg.

CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION

Implicating to increase in demand on energy, noticing that GoI is planning to transform their energy mix in increasing energy security and achieving climate targets.

24

48

72

96

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

IndustryHouseholdCommercialTransportationACM & others

toe

SECTORAL ENERGY DEMAND (“90-“12)

source: Pusdatin—ESDM

180

360

540

720

900

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CoalFuelGasElectricityLPGIndustrial biomass

toe

FINAL ENERGY DEMAND (“90-“12)

source: Pusdatin—ESDM

7pg.

END-USE MODELLING

Energy' Energy'Service'Energy'Technology'

• 'Coal'• 'Oil'• 'Gas'• 'Renewables'• 'Electricity'

• 'Blast'furnace'• 'Power'genera>on'• 'Air'condi>oner'• 'Fluorescent'• 'Automobile'

• 'Crude'steel'produc>on'• 'Electricity'demand'• 'Demand'for'hea>ng'and'cooling'• 'Ligh>ng''• 'Passenger,'freight'transport'

Flow of REAL WORLD�

Energy'Consump>on'CO2'emission'

Technology'Selec>on'

'

Energy'Service'Demand'

• 'Energy'type'• 'Energy'price'• 'Energy'constra>ns'• 'CO2'emission'factor'

• 'Technology'cost'(Ini>al'cost,'running'cost)'• 'Energy'consump>on'• 'Service'supply'• 'Diffusion'rate'• 'Life>me'

• 'Popula>on'growth'• 'Economic'growth'• 'Industrial'structure'• 'Employment'• 'Lifestyle'

Energy'Database' Technology'Database' SocioLeconomic'scenarios'

Flow of SIMULATION�

8pg.

END-USE MODELLING

Non-linear programming (GAMs End-Use & Extended Snap Shot) is used as a tool for developing energy development paths and estimating associated GHGs.

BaU Mitigation (CM1&2)

envisions development paths of energy sector and the associated GHG emission without considering mitigation efforts

development paths to achieve low carbon through: • efficiency & conservation; • advance technologies; • renewables; • CCS

Base year for projection scenarios is 2005 and target year is 2020 and 2050

Two projection scenarios are developed:

Energy demand projection is gathered from ExSS results. Analysis of socio-economic data (driving forces) projects the final energy demand.

9pg.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTION

(Driving Forces) Input Parameters to ExSS Modelling.

100

200

300

400

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

0-1415-64> 64

Millions

POPULATION INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT

5

10

15

0.5

1

1.5

2

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

Population GDP

POPULATION GROWTH

GDP GROWTH

source: BPS

3.53 6.67 9.10 14.11 16.92 38.99

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

AgricultureMining & QuarryngFood & BeverageTextileChemical IndustryConstructionOther IndustryIron & SteelCementTertiary Industries

Trillions IDR

10pg.

GHG REDUCTION — LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT PATHS

!1.0!!

!1.2!!

!1.4!!

!1.0!!

!2.6!!

!11.2!!

!1.0!!

!2.2!!

!2.1!!

!2.1!!

!7.0!!

!6.7!!

!6.7!!

!1.0!!

!3.2!!

!3.0!!

!2.7!!

!10.1!!

!9.5!!

!5.9!!

0!

2!

4!

6!

8!

10!

12!

2005! 2020! 2050! 2005! 2020! 2050! 2005! BaU! CM1! CM2! BaU! CM1! CM2! 2005! BaU! CM1! CM2! BaU! CM1! CM2!

2020! 2050! 2020! 2050!

Popula7on! GDP! Energy!Demand! CO2!Emission!

Counter Measure (CM) scenario: Introduction of low-carbon measures which are already available. Assumptions are based on the official target (RAN-GRK, reduce 38 MtCO2 in energy sector).

Baseline scenario: Projection of GHG emission under expected socio-economic development in Indonesia without additional countermeasures to reduce GHG from energy.

11

LCS Actions

Clean Energy (Residential and Commercial)

Low Carbon Style(Residential and Commercial)

Low Carbon Electricity

Low carbon energy system in industry

Sustainable transport

Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology

Efficient energy technology appliances

Society Behavior in Residential /Commercial

Renewable energy & Less CO2 Emission Energy

Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology (Coal IGCC + CCS)

Efficient energy process and processing technology

Efficient energy technology of power generation

Increasing Efficiency of T & D

Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy


Efficient energy technology appliances

Reduce trip generation and distance (improve Infrastructure, telecommunication, new urban design, traffic management


modal shift (public/mass rapid transport utilization)

Energy Efficiency Improvement

pg.

LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

This model assess the impacts of different measures in LCS Actions.

LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT PATHS

12pg.

ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION

20502020

180,000

360,000

540,000

720,000

900,000

2005 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2

Coal Oil GasBiomassa Electricity Biofuel

toe

FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION

20502020

toe

SECTORAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION

180,000

360,000

540,000

720,000

900,000


Passanger Transport Freight TransportResidential CommercialIndustry

Difficult to move away from Oil — large share of oil in energy demand by type

High increase in energy demand portion from industrial sector and freight whilst decrease in commercial sector

In CM2 there are nuclear and Coal-CCS being introduced.

13pg.

CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION

Significant decrease of power sector GHG Emission are mainly contributed by Nuclear (16%) and Coal CCS (42%).

2050

toe

ENERGY MIX

240,000

480,000

720,000

960,000

1,200,000


Coal Oil GasHydropower Solar & Wind BiomassaGeothermal Biofuel Nuclear

2020

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

4,000


Final demand sectors Power supplyOther energy indusries Other Sectors

toe

GHG EMISSION

20502020

14pg.

POWER SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM

Counter Measure 1 follows the RAN-GRK plan in increasing the utilization of new and renewable technologies and energies (Solar, Hydro, Geothermal, Biomass), in this scenario there are a decrease in electricity demand due to lower activities in other sectors due to efficiency and conservation programs activated. There are changes in share of Coal, Oil, and Gas in the energy mix.

Counter Measure 2 maximizes the potency of CM1 through extensification in the use of Carbon Capture Technologies, Nuclear Power, and especially the introduction of Biofuel in power sector. Further decrease in electricity demand than CM1. With a specified share of Coal in the energy mix (66%), the rest of energy share are competed, as well as the technology selection. Advance technologies are introduced and competed with existing technologies, and Biofuel is introduced promptly in the power sector.

Mtoe

36

72

108

144

180

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

BaU CM1 CM2

S E R V I C E O U T P U T

MtCO2eq

360

720

1,080

1,440

1,800

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

BaU CM1 CM2

G H G E M I S S I O N S

220

440

660

880

1,100

BaU

CoalGasOilBiomassSolarHydroGeothermalBlended Bio-fuelBiofuelNuclearCCS

BaU CM1 CM2

2015

BaU CM1 CM2

2020

BaU CM1 CM2

2025

BaU CM1 CM2

2030

BaU CM1 CM2

20502005

Mtoe

P R I M A R Y E N E R G Y S U P P LY

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

BaU

Total Operating Cost Annualized Investment Cost Total Initial Investment Cost TXM

BaU CM1 CM2

2015

BaU CM1 CM2

2020

BaU CM1 CM2

2025

BaU CM1 CM2

2030

BaU CM1 CM2

20502005

millions USD

M I T I G AT I O N C O S T

SERVICE OUTPUT

MITIGATION COSTGHG EMISSIONS

FINAL ENERGY SUPPLY

DEVICE SETTING

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

BaU

EL_COL_ST_EXT EL_GAS_ST_EXT EL_GAS_GT_EXT EL_GAS_CC_EXT EL_GAS_GE_EXT EL_GAS_CC_NEWEL_ELY_EXT EL_ELY_NEW EL_BMS_ST_EXT EL_SOL_EXT EL_RHY_EXT EL_RGE_EXTEL_OIL_ST_EXT EL_OIL_GT_EXT EL_OIL_CC_EXT EL_OIL_DE_EXT EL_BMS_IG_NEW EL_NUC_EXTEL_COL_SC_CC EL_COL_IGCC EL_COL_IGCC_CC EL_GAS_CC_NEWx

BaU CM1 CM2

2015

BaU CM1 CM2

2020

BaU CM1 CM2

2025

BaU CM1 CM2

2030

BaU CM1 CM2

20502005

15pg.


USD/tCO2eq

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 450 900 1350 1800

ABATEMENT COST CURVE

Gas

CC

with

CC

S

Geo

ther

mal

IGC

C C

oal w

ith C

CS Nuclear Hydro

Biomass ST

tCO2eq

GHG REDUCTION

CO

ST/

SA

VIN

GS

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

BaU

Oil Gas Electricity BiofuelMtoe

BaU CM1 CM2

2015 2020 2025 2030 20502005

BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU

F I N A L E N E R G Y S U P P LY

MtCO2eq

80,000

160,000

240,000

320,000

400,000

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

BaU CM1 CM2


16pg.

TRANSPORTATION SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM

Business as Usual scenario projects the growth of output service with no change in share of transportation modes (data: National Statistics, Directorate General of Transportation).

Efficiency and Conservations program through RAN-GRK reduce the service demand of transportation in passenger km as well as tonnage-freight km. In Counter Measure Scenario there are introduction of advanced technologies in transportation that enables lower emission as well as lower energy consumption.

SERVICE OUTPUT

GHG EMISSIONS

FINAL ENERGY SUPPLY

DEVICE SETTING

140,000

280,000

420,000

560,000

700,000

BaU

Total Operating Cost Annualized Investment Cost Total Initial Investment Cost

BaU CM1 CM2

2015

BaU CM1 CM2

2020

BaU CM1 CM2

2025

BaU CM1 CM2

2030

BaU CM1 CM2

20502005

millions USD

M I T I G AT I O N C O S TMITIGATION COST

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

440,000

880,000

1,320,000

1,760,000

2,200,000

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

P_BaU P_CM F_BaU F_CMPassenger Km

Tonnage Km


20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

BaU

TFADOI_EXT TFADOI_HEF1 TFADOI_NEW TFAIOI_EXT TFAIOI_HEF1 TFAIOI_NEW TFNDOI_EXT TFNDOI_HEF1TFNIOI_EXT TFNIOI_HEF1 TFRLOT_EXT TFTLOI_EXT TFTLOI_HEF1 TFTLOI_NEW TPADOI_EXT TPADOI_HEF1TPADOI_NEW TPAIOI_EXT TPAIOI_HEF1 TPAIOI_NEW TPBSOI_EXT TPBSOI_NEW TPNDOI_EXT TPNDOI_HEF1TPNIOI_EXT TPNIOI_HEF1 TPPCOD_EXT TPPCOD_NEW TPPCOG_EXT TPPCOG_HEF1 TPPCOG_NEW TPPCOM_EXTTPPCOM_NEW TPRLEL_EXT TPRLOT_EXT

BaU CM1 CM2

2015

BaU CM1 CM2

2020

BaU CM1 CM2

2025

BaU CM1 CM2

2030

BaU CM1 CM2

20502005

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

BaU

TBBFD_B TBBFD_D TBBFDR_B TBBFDR_D TBBFG_B TBBFG_G TBBFH_B TBBFH_HTFADOI_EXT TFADOI_HEF1 TFADOI_NEW TFAIOI_EXT TFAIOI_HEF1 TFAIOI_NEW TFNDOI_EXT TFNDOI_HEF1TFNIOI_EXT TFNIOI_HEF1 TFRLOT_EXT TFTLOI_EXT TFTLOI_HEF1 TFTLOI_NEW TPADOI_EXT TPADOI_HEF1TPADOI_NEW TPAIOI_EXT TPAIOI_HEF1 TPAIOI_NEW TPBSOI_EXT TPBSOI_NEW TPNDOI_EXT TPNDOI_HEF1TPNIOI_EXT TPNIOI_HEF1 TPPCOD_EXT TPPCOD_NEW TPPCOG_EXT TPPCOG_HEF1 TPPCOG_NEW TPPCOM_EXTTPPCOM_NEW TPRLEL_EXT TPRLOT_EXT

BaU CM1 CM2

2015

BaU CM1 CM2

2020

BaU CM1 CM2

2025

BaU CM1 CM2

2030

BaU CM1 CM2

20502005

17pg.


500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

BaU

Car Bus Train Motorcycle Ship Airplane Walk BikePassenger

Km

BaU CM

2015 2020 2025 2030 20502005

BaU CM BaU CM BaU CM BaU

Tonnage Km

2015 2020 2025 2030 20502005

600,000

1,200,000

1,800,000

2,400,000

3,000,000

BaU

Truck Train Ship Airplane

BaU CM BaU CM1 BaU CM BaU CM BaU

DEVICE SETTING

PASSENGER FREIGHT

The high increase of passenger train usage has a significance impact in reducing GHG emission in transportation sector, the use of train takes a great portion of private cars and motorcyclists in the mode share. Shifting to a mass and centralized transportation system has a great impact in reducing GHG emission as well as increasing the efficiency of transporting activity.

18pg.


USD/tCO2eq

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

0 50 100 150 200 250 300


hi-eff intl. & domestic naval transport-freight

GHG REDUCTION

CO

ST/

SA

VIN

GS

Motorcycle (flow)hi-eff aircraft-intl. & domestic flight-freight

Gas

olin

e pa

ss.-c

ar (fl

ow)

Ely.

Pas

s. R

ail (

hi-eff)

& (fl

ow)

Larg

e-si

ze

truck

(flow

)

Bus(

flow

)

Biof

uel

tCO2eq

MTonnage (Cement)

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

36

72

108

144

180

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

Cement Steel

— SERVICE

MTonnage (Steel)


2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

BaU


BaU CM

2015

BaU CM

2020

BaU CM

2025

BaU CM1

2030

BaU CM

20502005

millions USD

M I T I G AT I O N C O S T

6

12

18

24

30

BaU

Coal Electricity AFR Biomass Natural GasMtoe

2015 2020 2025 2030 20502005

BaU CM BaU CM BaU CM BaU CM BaU CM

F I N A L E N E R G Y S U P P LY

MtCO2eq

32

64

96

128

160

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

BaU_EMS CM_EMS BaU_IPPU CM_IPPU


19pg.

CEMENT + IRON & STEEL INDUSTRY — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM

In Business as Usual scenario there are a limited introduction of alternative material in the production process of cement industry. In Counter Measure Scenario there are extensive use of alternative fuel and material (AFR), such as Biomass for clinker substitute material and Biomass for fuel combustion process (waste, husk, hazardous waste, etc.). The reuse of waste and use of renewables as fuel and materials reduces the GHG emissions. Advanced technologies increases efficiency in energy usage.

Business as Usual scenario has limited domestic (local) process and activities. There are imports in the middle production chain through foreign process (e.g. Pelletization process and most Pig Iron Process). In 2020, Blast Furnace process will be running under PT. Krakatau Steel and POSCO Steel Ltd.. CM scenario in iron & steel industry introduces the competition of advanced technologies in the production process. Advanced technologies have significant impact to higher efficiency in energy use and further reduce GHG emissions, noticing that Iron & Steel industry is an energy intensive industry.

SERVICE OUTPUT

GHG EMISSIONS

FINAL ENERGY SUPPLY

DEVICE SETTINGMITIGATION COST

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

BaU

IC_G_EXT IC_C_EXT IC_F_EXT IS_B_CG0 IS_B_CG1 IS_B_EXT IS_B_TR0 IS_B_TR1IS_C_CG0 IS_C_CQ0 IS_C_EXT IS_DR_EXT IS_E_EXT IS_E_PR0 IS_L_EXT IS_L_LG0IS_L_LG1 IS_R_EXT IS_RK_EXT IS_S_EXT IS_C_CG1 IS_C_CQ1 IS_B_TR2 IS_E_PR1

BaU CM

2015

BaU CM

2020

BaU CM

2025

BaU CM

2030

BaU CM

20502005

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

USD/tCO2eq

-120

-105

-90

-75

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

0 30 60 90 120 150 180


Vertical Mill Cement Mix

tCO2eq

GHG REDUCTION

CO

ST/

SA

VIN

GS

CO

ST/

SA

VIN

GS

USD/tCO2eqCEMENT IRON & STEEL

Scrap pre-Heater

BFG & COG RecoveryCDQ

BOG Recovery

Blast Furnace (BAT) +CCS

Continuos Casting (BAT)

Dry TRT

20pg.

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM

10

20

30

40

50

60

BaU

Cooking Cooling Hot Water Lighting Other Refrigerant

BaU CM

2015

BaU CM

2020

BaU CM

2025

BaU CM1

2030

BaU CM

20502005

Mtoe

60,000

120,000

180,000

240,000

300,000

BaU


BaU CM

2015

BaU CM

2020

BaU CM

2025

BaU CM1

2030

BaU CM

20502005

millions USD

20

40

60

80

100

BaU

Biogas Electricity Natural Gas Oil (Kerosene)Mtoe

2015 2020 2025 2030 20502005


MtCO2eq

120

240

360

480

600

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

BaU CM

21pg.

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM

Efficiency and Conservations program through RAN-GRK reduce the service demand of residential sector. In CM1 there are introduction of advanced technologies in home appliances and fixtures enables lower emission as well as lower energy consumption. Biogas is introduced in CM1 with a limited penetration to the market. There are also shift in technologies, into technologies that use electricity as energy source (e.g. electric stove, electric heater, etc.).

The CM scenario has a mere small impact of GHG reduction due to high intensity of energy usage. In average households in Indonesia are urban sprawl, with less population density implicating to more energy usage per square meter of land-capita.

SERVICE OUTPUT

GHG EMISSIONS

FINAL ENERGY SUPPLY


20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

BaU

RC_EL_BAT RC_EL_EXT RF_EL_BAT RF_EL_EXT RH_EL_BAT RH_EL_EXT RH_NG_EXT RH_OK_EXTRK_EL_BAT RK_EL_EXT RK_NG_EXT RK_OK_EXT RL_EL_FLC RL_EL_INC RL_EL_LED RO_EL_BATRO_EL_EXT

BaU CM

2015

BaU CM

2020

BaU CM

2025

BaU CM

2030

BaU CM

20502005

22pg.


USD/tCO2eq

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50


Oth

er E

quip

men

t (ad

vanc

ed)

Biofuel

Heat Pump Water-heater (advanced)

Refrigerant (advanced)

GHG REDUCTION

CO

ST/

SA

VIN

GS

Fluo

resc

ent

LED

Air Conditioner (advanced)

Electric Cooking Range

tCO2eq

0.022

0.044

0.066

0.088

0.11

BaU

Fuel Oil Natural Gas Biogas-Gas Mix Electricity BiogasMtoe

2015 2020 2025 2030 20502005


MtCO2eq

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

BaU CM

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

BaU

Hot Water Refrigerant Space Cooling Cooking Lighting Other Equipments

BaU CM

2015

BaU CM

2020

BaU CM

2025

BaU CM1

2030

BaU CM

20502005

Mtoe

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

BaU

GB_B GB_G RC_EL_BAT RC_EL_EXT RF_EL_BAT RF_EL_EXT RH_EL_BATRH_EL_EXT RH_FC_EL RH_FC_NG RH_FC_OK RH_NG_EXT RH_OK_EXT RK_EL_BATRK_EL_EXT RK_FC_EL RK_FC_NG RK_FC_OK RK_NG_EXT RK_OK_EXT RL_EL_FLCRL_EL_INC RL_EL_LED RO_EL_BAT RO_EL_EXT

BaU CM

2015

BaU CM

2020

BaU CM

2025

BaU CM

2030

BaU CM

20502005

23pg.

COMMERCIAL SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM

60,000

120,000

180,000

240,000

300,000

BaU


BaU CM

2015

BaU CM

2020

BaU CM

2025

BaU CM1

2030

BaU CM

20502005

millions USD

Commercial sector consists of buildings operating as office, market place, restaurant, and hotel and leisure services. Commercial sector in Indonesia has about 4% share of total energy consumption. Most of the energy consumption is on other electrical equipment (i.e. elevators, escalators, etc.). Space cooling is the largest energy consuming specified equipment, acknowledge that Indonesia is a tropical country with an average temperature of 28˚c and over in the cities.

Efficiency and Conservations program through RAN-GRK reduce the service demand of commercial sector. In Counter Measure Scenario there are introduction of advanced technologies in commercial equipments and fixtures enables lower emission as well as lower energy consumption. Biogas is introduced in CM Scenario with a limited penetration to the market.

SERVICE OUTPUT

GHG EMISSIONS

FINAL ENERGY SUPPLY


NIESNIES

Acknowledgment

Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB) - Indonesia

Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB) - Indonesia

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) – Japan

Kyoto University – Japan

Mizuho Information & Research Institute – Japan

National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) – Japan

UN University Institute of Advance Studies – Japan

Tsukuba, 23 January 2015

Center for Research on Energy PolicyINSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG

End-Use Model for Indonesia Low-Carbon Development Pathways in Energy Sector

Retno G Dewi - Ucok W.R. Siagian - Bintang Yuwono - Iwan Hendrawan - Rias Parinderati

26pg.


27pg.


28pg.

CEMENT + IRON & STEEL INDUSTRY — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM

CEMENT INDUSTRY IRON & STEEL

29pg.


30pg.

COMMERCIAL SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM

end-use model for indonesia low-carbon development

Documents