Emissions of NOx and SOx from Baltic shippingEffects on air quality and marine eutrophication

Tapani Stipa, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Marke Hongisto, Jari Walden (Finnish Meterological Institute)Juha Kalli (University of Turku)Anders Brink (Åbo Akademi University)

Shipping is a global source of emissions• Shipping enjoys long-standing freedoms of the high

seas• Emissions from ships are difficult to measure

• Previous estimates were based on bunker used and estimated ship routes

• Updates every 5-10 years• Emissions hardly regulated (until 2005 at least)

Goals (Emission inventory)AIS information

Revised emission factors

Live emissions

Distribution of annual NOx emission

Verification of emission estimatesfuel consumption estimate

Wind waves and fuel consumption by hour

NOx deposition (mgN/m2) due to shipping

Percentage of monthly NOx deposition due to ship emissions

January 2007July 2006

Emission measurements

measurement station in Aegna

• Mesurement frequency: 10 min discontinuous periods

Measure-ment cabin

6 m

7 m

10,65 m

-Windspeed - Temperature

- Wind direction and –speed - Temperature - Measurement of gas compounds : O3, SO2 and NO/NOx

-Wind speed - Temperature - Measurement of gas compounds : O3, SO2 and NO/NOx

Measured data; example, 9h period 29.7.2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

405

:00

5:3

0

6:0

0

6:3

0

7:0

0

7:3

0

8:0

0

8:3

0

9:0

0

9:3

0

10

:00

10

:30

11

:00

11

:30

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:00

12

:30

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:00

13

:30

14

:00

O3

NO

NO2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

10

:00

10

:10

10

:20

10

:30

10

:40

10

:50

11

:00

Shipping is a potential contributor to marine eutrophication

Thought experiment:A month’s worth of shipping emissions would increase the nitrogen level in the sea within 10 km of the shipping lane significantly. The increase is comparable to about 5-20% of winter nutrient concentrations.

Scenario with 5.2% growthNOx emissions [kt] of Shipping on Baltic Sea, traffic increase 5.2%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

annual NOx, 4% renewal, 2%abatement until 2011, Tier 2 and 3(80%), base year 370 [kt]

annual NOx, 4% renewal, 2%abatement until 2011, Tier 2 and 3(50%), base year 370 [kt]

annual NOx, 4% renewal, 2%abatement until 2011, Tier 2 only,base year 370 [kt]

annual NOx, 4% renewal, 10% NOxmore before 2000, Tier 2 and 3 (80%),base year 370 [kt]

annual NOx, 4% renewal, 2%abatement until 2011, base year 370[kt]

Conclusions• In the Baltic region, ship emissions account for up to

50% of the Nox deposition• Baltic shipping creates more SOx emissions than

Nordic countries (FI, SE, NO, DK) together from land-based sources

• Much policy-level activity both in the Baltic and internationally

• Should WMO liaise more closely with IMO to promote the study of shipping emissions and their effects?

Thank you!

[Quiz: where is the above picture taken from?]