Emission factor modeling in Istituto Motori - KEM

Maria Vittoria Prati,Maria Vittoria Prati,Livia Della Ragione, Livia Della Ragione,

Giovanni Giovanni MeccarielloMeccariello,,Maria Antonietta Maria Antonietta CostagliolaCostagliola

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Expert Meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for Road Transport SectorJRC – Ispra, 16-17 October 2008

SUMMARYSUMMARY

BackgroundModeling approachThe core of the Model BaseThe development of an User Interface.......in progressReferences

Emission evaluation can be performed for different purposes and uses at different space and time scales Macro scale models are able to define emission inventories and calculate overall average emission estimation based on a few input parameters such as fleet composition and average speed Meso scale models are necessary to develop region and city transit plans. They require detailed representation of the areatraffic and transit network into links. For each link average emissions are generally evaluated for each individual vehicle as a function of vehicle flow and average speed Micro scale models are istantaneous emission models and they require more detailed analysis of vehicle driving behaviour data represented by the time series of vehicle speed on the link

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

The kinematic model approach was developed by Istituto Motori in ARTEMIS context. This kinematic model (Kinematic Emission Model KEM) is defined as a meso-scale emission modelIt predicts average emissions on a driving pattern obtaining a detailed description of the velocity profile using a multidimensional approach.It is based on the analysis of an existing huge emissions database, different fleet composition, different driving sub-cycle and laboratories involved in the emissions measurements, coming from the ARTEMIS EU project.

MODELING APPROACHMODELING APPROACH

A Decision Support System (DSS) approach for modelling and predicting vehicle real-world emissions as a function of driving behavior kinematics DSS components are the emission data warehouse, the model base and the grafical user interface (GUI)

MODELING APPROACHMODELING APPROACH

At the present the KEM model has been only developed forcars in function of tecnology, type approval stage and engine capacity. Only for hot conditions.

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SYSTEM STRUCTURESYSTEM STRUCTURE

The Model BaseThe Model Base

A consistent set of kinematic parameters is used to represent the real-world driving behavior of vehicles in any traffic situationThe response considered is the measured unit emission mass of CO, HC, NOx, CO2(expressed in g/km), measured in a driving cycle (DC), that is a portion of a tripPrincipal Component Analysis and the Partial Least Squares (PLS) based on PCA variables statistical methods are implemented in the system.

The explicative variables characterize the kinematics of driving cycles and are related to the dynamic vehicle equation, plus idling time to consider stand-still phase emission production

The Model BaseThe Model Base

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Artemis database for cars

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Diesel IMPORTANT: in similar test conditions

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MODEL RESULTS MODEL RESULTS NOX g/Km

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0.2

0.3

0.4

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v_overall

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

NOx [g/km]

An example:

Euro 3 Gasoline cars 1400-2000 cc

Hot emissions

Black: mean speed model

KEM model, including or notincluding High emitters

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 401 451 501 551

0

5

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15

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DatawarehouseDatawarehouse

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PM (g/km)

THE USER INTERFACE THE USER INTERFACE

THE USER INTERFACE THE USER INTERFACE

Easy module: able to predict emission factors based on the input of several parametersThe input variables are:- Driving cycle profile;-Homologation and displacement;

The core of the tool is a set of regression equations applying an empirical model which calculates from the PLS approach the vehicle emissions in real-world hot driving conditions

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSAND DEVELOPMENTSAND DEVELOPMENTS

It is in progress the elaboration of a graphical user interface (GUI) for the production of reportsThis tool of DSS has to be able to interact with userContinuous data warehouse update The full development of DSS is in progress… … …

Include two wheelers Consider Cold StartInclude Particulate emissions in terms of particle mass (PM) and number (PN)

REFERENCESREFERENCES

M. Rapone, L. Della Ragione, G. Meccariello, “An integrated knowledge base for modelling and predicting vehicle real-world emissions as a function of driving behaviour kinematics”, Proceedings of ITI Conferences, 2008

M. Rapone, M.V. Prati, M.A. Costagliola, L. Della Ragione, G. Meccariello, “Emission Factors Determination of Euro III 1,200-to 1,400-cc Petrol Passenger Cars with a PLS Multivariate Regression Model”, Environmental Modeling and Assessment, Vol.13(3), pp. 383-392, Springer Netherlands, 2008

Joumard R., Andre J.M., Rapone M., et alii “Emission factor modelling and database for light vehicles”, Artemis deliverable 3, 2007

Data Quality ApproachData Quality ApproachData quality approach

Data source acquisition Source DataAnalysis Case study MAD Analysis Data

warehouse

Artemis DataBase

Identification and Case

Studyextractions

Filter

Petrol case

Diesel case

MAD Outlierspruning

All cases Datawarehouse