Election Trends: Learning from the Past and Looking to the

Future

Friday, November 13, 2009

Election Trends: Learning From the Past and Looking to the Future

Today’s Program• Election Results & Trends

– 2009 Campaigns– 2000 – 2009 Campaigns

• What Does It Mean• How to Be Successful• What’s Next

Speakers

• Jason Jordan, Director, Center for Transportation Excellence, Washington DC

• Jeff Boothe, Partner, Holland & Knight; Chair, New Starts Working Group, Washington, DC

• Cliff Henke, Senior Analyst, BRT & Streetcars, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Arcadia, CA

TRANSPORTATION ELECTIONS: 2009

Overview

ID

AZ

UT

MT

WY

NM

CO

AL

FL

SC

TN

KY

INOH

NC

SD

KS

NE

MN

WI

IA

IL

MO

AR

MS

OK

ND

OR

CA NV

WA

AK

PA

ME

VA

NY

CT

WV

MDNJ

VT

NH

MA

DE

RI

LEGENDElections Held in May and November

Election Held in August

Elections Held November

Election Scheduled for December

2009 Transportation Ballot Measures

HI

LA

MI

GA

TX

May & August 2009Total Measures: 3

Wins: 2

Losses: 1

Win Rate: 66%

November 3, 2009Total Measures: 7

Wins: 5

Losses: 2

Win Rate: 72%

2009 TotalTotal Measures: 10

Wins: 7

Losses: 3

Win Rate: 70%

*One More election in 2009! Oklahoma City, OK*

2009 Transportation Ballot Measures

• 8 Finance Measures (75% passed)o 5 Property Tax Measures (3 out of 5 passed)

o 2 Sales Tax Measures (2 out of 2 passed)

o 1 Bond Measure (passed)

•1 Establishment of a RTD (failed)

•1 Anti-Transit City Charter Amendment (failed)

Types of Transportation Ballot Measures in 2009

2009 Transportation Ballot Measures Results Colorado Springs, CO (11/3) Type: Property Tax Result: Loss—Failed, 37%-

63%

Fountain, CO (11/3)Type: Sales TaxResult: Win—Approved, 50.4%-49.6%

Porter and St. Joseph Counties, IN (11/3)Type: Establishment of RTD Result: Loss—Failed, 20%-80% & 5%-95%

Maine, Statewide (11/3)Type: Bond Result: Win—Approved, 65%-35%

Flint, MI (11/3)Type: Property taxResult: Win—Approved, 68%-32%

Grand Rapids, MI (5/5)Type: Property tax Result: Loss—Failed, 48%-52%

Kalamazoo, MI (5/5)Type: Property tax Result: Win—Approved, 63%-37%

Kalamazoo, MI (11/3)Type: Property tax Result: Win—Approved, 76%-24% Cincinnati, OH (11/3) Type: Anti-Rail City Charter Amendment Result: Win—Failed, 44%-56%

Island County, WA (8/18) Type: Sales TaxResult: Win—Approved, 55%-45%

TABOR Measures on November 2009 Ballot

WASHINGTONInitiative 1033

Failed, 45%-55%

MAINEQuestion 4

Failed, 40%-60%

"Taxpayer Bill of Rights“ or TABOR measures seek to impose spending limits on state and local budgets and require voter approval of any increases. In the past, places that have approved such measures have seen dramatic decreases in state and local budgets, requiring intense cuts to services like public transportation.

•Between 2005 and 2009, TABOR was introduced legislatively in 28 states•TABOR measures have been placed on the ballot and failed in four states:

•Maine, Nebraska Oregon and most recently in California•Colorado is the only state to have approved a TABOR measure

•In 2005, voters opted to suspend most of the law for five years

TRANSPORTATION ELECTIONS: TRENDS 2000 - 2009

Overview

ID

AZ

UT

MT

WY

NM

CO

AL

FL

SC

TN

KY

INOH

NC

SD

KS

NE

MN

WI

IA

IL

MO

AR

MS

OK

ND

OR

CA NV

WA

AK

PA

ME

VA

NY

CT

WV

MDNJ

VT

NH

MA

DE

RI

HI

LA

MI

GA

TX

States with Transportation Ballot Measures2000-2009

Legend

States With BallotMeasures

Transportation Elections: 2000-2009

• Since 2000, CFTE has monitored over 300 transportation measures.

• 38 states have had transportation measures on the ballot in the past decade.

Transportation Choice Wins at the Ballot Box

• Almost a 70% Average Approval Rate for Transportation Measures

• Twice the Approval Rate of All Ballot Measures

• Success Across Region, Population, Party Affiliation

ID

AZ

UT

MT

WY

NM

CO

AL

FL

SC

TN

KY

INOH

NC

SD

KS

NE

MN

WI

IA

IL

MO

AR

MS

OK

ND

OR

CA NV

WA

AK

PA

ME

VA

NY

CT

WV

MDNJ

VT

NH

MA

DE

RI

HI

LA

MI

GA

TX

States that have Approved TransportationBallot Measures 2000-2009

Legend

States that havePassed Transportation

Ballot Measures

Finance Measure Trends• More than 80% of all

Transportation Measures Focus on Finance

• Sales Tax Measures are Most Common – 46% of all measures; 1/3 of all

successful finance measures– Majority of Local Funding– 54% Approval Rate Since 2000

• Property Tax Measures are Most Successful– 80% Approval Rate

• Numerous Tax Extensions Due– Strong Approval Rate for

Extensions– No “New Tax” Argument

• Bonds & Dedicated Funding More Common for Statewide Ballots

• Fees on rental cars, vehicle registration & license fee, etc

WHY COMMUNITIES GO TO THE BALLOT

What Does it Mean?

17

Travel Patterns• Vehicle Miles Travelled

– Household average has declined each year since 2005

– Compares with rise in VMT of 151% from 1977-2001

• Transit Ridership – Nearly 10.7 billion rides in

2008 up over 4 % from 2007

– Modest decline in first half of 2009 due to overall economy and service cutbacks

18

Impact of Gasoline Prices

                                                                       

     

• Prices have risen from $1.60/gallon in 2003 to $3.22/gallon in 2008• In 2009 we have seen a rise from $2.31 in May rising to $2.50/gallon in October and $2.74/gallon as of November 2nd • Future trends suggest rising above $3/gallon or higher as economy begins to recover and demand increases

19

Growing Cooler – Climate Change• Surface transportation equals

28-33 percent of GHGs • Reducing VMT is necessary to

meet GHG reduction goals• Must shift demand to non-auto

modes and change trip patterns

• Must create livable and walkable environments

20

Where Will Next 100 Million People Live?

• Last 100 million added in 39 years

• Next 100 million will be added in less than 35 years

• Where will they live and work?

21

Demand for TOD by 2025 will more than double

• Hidden in Plain Sight (2004) projects increase in housing from 6.4 M units near transit now and an additional 14.6 units are needed by 2025

• 70 M units must be built by 2040• Regions with extensive and

growing transit systems offer the greatest potential for TOD.

• Growth is likely to be modest through 2010 and accelerate in later years as more transit systems come on line.

Projected Demand for Housing in Transit Zones

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Hou

seho

lds

(Mill

ions

)

22

TOD = ½ Auto Trips

23

Nation’s Economy Dependent on Metro Areas

Metro Economies Report, United States Conference of Mayors (January 2007)

24

GMP of top 10 Metro Areas Exceeds GMP of 34 States and DC

Metro Economies Report, United States Conference of Mayors (January 2007)

25

Population and Transit Ridership

• 84% of all people live in areas above 50,000 in population

• Most Americans in metro areas don’t have access to transit within one-half mile of home

26

Climate Change Legislation • America’s Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA)

– Section 222 proposes creation of Transportation Fund– Requires preparation of “blueprints” at MPO and State

level with GHG targets at 10 and 20 years– Limits funding for surface transportation to no more than

1 percent of the allowances• Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act (S. 1733) includes

planning provisions similar to ACESA – S. 1733 would dedicate on average, 2.4% of allowances

per year with some years representing 3% of allowances– 1% of allowances will be worth $1 billion - $2.4 billion to

$3 billion– Competitive grant program for a wide range of

transportation, land use, and demand management measures as well as direct funding for transit

27

Surface Transportation Authorization

• House Transportation and Infrastructure (T and I) Committee surface transportation authorization bill incorporates blueprint planning in both state and local planning programs

• House T and I Committee bill shifts from 82/18 highway/transit split to 75/25 highway/transit split

• House T and I Committee bill shifts funding to metropolitan areas and away from states

• Expect to see performance goals that focus on impacts of investments on greenhouse gas emissions and energy reduction

28

Testimony of DOT Secretary LaHood

• “Another way to achieve our clean energy and climate goals is through more effective transportation planning. We would like to work with Congress to support robust transportation planning techniques to target investments to projects that reduce GHG emissions and fuel consumption. One strategy for reducing transportation-related GHG emissions is by integrating transportation planning with housing, land use and water infrastructure planning. As new or additional development is contemplated, considering where people will be located, where they will need to go, and how they should be able to get there, can promote better efficiencies, system performance and lower carbon emissions.

• “DOT’s experience and statutory jurisdiction to implement transportation planning regulations lends itself well to accomplish the transportation planning goals contemplated in the bill. A key mechanism by which DOT can have an impact on climate change is through our role in financing infrastructure and promoting effective transportation planning across the United States, including highways, airports, transit systems, and multi-modal facilities. We have a unique opportunity to shape the transportation infrastructure of the future to promote livability and to reduce the environmental impact of transportation.”

• October 27, 2009 before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee

29

Emphasize Accessibility over Mobility

• Cities over one million should have a diverse transit network, including rail, streetcars and rapid bus

• Increasing percentage of persons within one-half mile of quality transit in areas above one million people

• More focus on “complete streets” that recognize that pedestrians are crucial to reducing automobile travel demand

30

Expand Housing Availability and Pedestrian Accessibility

• Expand accessibility for transit dependent• Remove barriers to higher density housing

adjacent to transit• Coordinate housing and transportation plan• Livable Communities Bill – S. 1619

– Comprehensive Planning Grant Program will help communities develop comprehensive regional plans that incorporate transportation, housing, community and economic development, and environmental needs. The Act authorizes $400 million in competitive grants over four years.

– Challenge Grant Program - implement cross-cutting projects according to their comprehensive regional plans. $3.75 billion authorized for competitive grants over three years to help communities create and preserve affordable housing; support transit-oriented development; improve public transportation; create pedestrian and bicycle thoroughfares; redevelop brownfields; and foster economic development.

31

Local/Federal Partnership• How does your community respond to policy

changes?• Nation will be divided between - -

– Communities longing for past (sprawl, low density, expanding road networks) or

– Communities looking forward (providing transportation choices, offering mix of housing choices, seeing transit as a necessary investment to attract business and “creative class”)

• Growing percentage of funding coming from locals

FORCES BEHIND THE SUCCESS + SUPPORT FOR TRANSIT

Why Do They Win?

Why the Success?

Five Value Propositions1. Vital social service2. Engine for economic growth3. Good for the Environment4. Reduces Oil Dependence5. Key to More Livable Future:

--Climate change--Aging population = driving less--Population/congestion growth (esp. in the Sunbelt)

Transit’s “Three Renaissances”

• First Renaissance (c. 1960-c.1990)– Private transit bailouts– UMT Act 1964– 1973 MT Asst. Act (op. assistance)– Oil shocks– First rail new starts

• Theme: “Transit worth saving”

Transit’s “Three Renaissances”

• Second Renaissance (c. 1980-c.2005)– ISTEA (flex. funding, MPO mandates)– CMAQ and Clean Air Amendments– TEA 21 (funding guarantees)– Gas tax increases– Growing local referenda success

• Theme: “Transit deserves a fair place”

Feds Grew, But Others Grew Faster

Funding trends: feds growing but state/local share growing faster

FY FEDERAL

STATE

LOCAL

DIR GEN (Local Taxes etc)

LOC PLUS DIR GEN

1988 65.2% 12.7%

19.9% 2.2% 22.1%

1990 58.2% 14.1%

23.8% 3.8% 27.7%

1995 47.3% 14.1%

12.3% 26.3% 38.6%

1999 44.1% 10.2%

12.6% 33.1% 45.7%

2002 40.6% 11.6%

20.1% 27.7% 47.8%

2003 39.9% 12.7%

18.1% 29.3% 47.4%

2004 39.0% 13.9%

18.2% 28.9% 47.1%

2005 39.0% 12.6%

21.9% 26.5% 48.4%

2006 43.5% 13.3%

15.5% 27.6% 43.1%

2007P 41.0% 11.2%

14.4% 33.5% 47.9%

Source: APTA

Consequences of Local Funding Share Growth

• Some projects advanced without FTA funds– Utah seeking just 20% from FTA– Denver RTD seeking funding for only 2 or 3

FasTracks corridors – Many streetcar sponsors are avoiding Small

Starts

Projects in FTA Pipeline by Mode

Transit’s “Third Renaissance”

• Third Renaissance (c. 2000-??)– Continued ballot success– Carbon revenues?– Infrastructure bank?– Routine value capture?– Growth boundaries– Increase share of budget?

• Theme: “Transit essential investment”

Other Macroscopic Developments

• Federal funding scarcity– Continued record funding, but – Federal trust funds running out of money– Federal stimulus programs are oversubscribed

• Financial, real estate meltdown limits innovative financing

• Congestion growing: 100 million new people in in U.S. in next 30 years, mostly in cities

• Sustainability (e.g., energy prices, climate change) to forefront

• Growing interest in alternative delivery mechanisms (DB, DBOM, PPP)

“Changing the Way America Moves”New APTA Paper Supports Vision

• America must create more jobs, reduce its dependence on foreign oil, and become more carbon efficient

• Public transportation can make a significant contribution quickly on all three

• Public transportation already saves 4.2 billion gallons of fuel and 37 million metric tons of carbon emissions per year, while supporting 1.7 million jobs.

• An investment of 1.6% of U.S. GDP per year could:– Support 7.4 million jobs – Save the country 15.2 billion gallons of fuel annually—almost as much

as we now import from the Persian Gulf!• This would also cut 141.9 million metric tons of carbon

emissions per year—about 8% of the total carbon emissions from U.S. transportation sector

ELEMENTS OF SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGNS

How Do They Win?

44

Elements of Successful Campaigns• Champion

– Can be from either public or private sector

• Professional Campaign Management– Prior Referendum Experience v. Campaign for a

Person– If national firm – make sure there is local chair– Relationship with Advertising Firm

• Early Fundraising– Local chair must be able to get supporters to write

checks

45

Elements of Successful Campaigns• Timing – Special versus General• Early Polling

– Identify Key Issues/Concerns– Hone message to address key issues– Measure impact of messaging to positively affect voter

opinion– Identify best mix of projects

• Realistic Conversation about the cost of the campaign

• Right-sizing the tax - ½ cent, full cent sales tax?

46

Elements of Successful Campaigns• Under promise and over deliver

– Temptation to “Low-ball” project cost estimates– Temptation to be unrealistic about how long it takes to

construct projects

• Stay on Message– Critics will seek to raise “red herring” issues to distract voters

• Respond to Critics– Be prepared to respond immediately– Public begins to believe statements of critics if you don’t

respond

47

Elements of Successful Campaigns

• End of Day must Answer Fundamental Question

• WHAT’S IN IT FOR ME?

48

Impact on Federal Funding

• FTA follows local press– Want to support local areas committed to

transit– Confusion/Lack of Consensus can be Fatal to a

Project– Unsuccessful vote will delay project– Issue is how close was the vote

49

Impact on Federal Funding• New Starts/Small Starts Program

– Alternatives Analysis• Local funding source identified but not committed• Need a reasonable plan with realistic estimates for cost to

build project as well as operate and maintain system once constructed

– Preliminary Engineering/Project Development• Expect that vote will occur early in PE

– Final Design• 50 Percent of monies must be committed before entry

into FD• Monies in place to operate and maintain system

50

Impact on Federal Funding• New Starts/Small Starts Program

– SAFETEA-LU requires 20 percent local match– Reality

• New Starts – plan on 50 percent local funding• Small Starts – many projects only have 20 percent

local match

– New Starts represents less than 50 percent of total funding for fixed guideway projects as more and more communities building projects outside New Starts program

LOOKING TO 2010What’s Next?

ID

AZ

UT

MT

WY

NM

CO

AL

FL

SC

TN

KY

INOH

NC

SD

KS

NE

MN

WI

IA

IL

MO

AR

MS

OK

ND

OR

CA NV

WA

AK

PA

ME

VA

NY

CT

WV

MDNJ

VT

NH

MA

DE

RI

LEGEND

Potential 2010TransportationMeasures

Transportation Election Outlook 2010 Ballot Measures

HI

LA

MI

GA

TX

Thoughts on 2010 & Beyond

Questions & Discussion

Six Stops to Success Upcoming Webinars

January 15, 2010: Getting Started on a Ballot Measure Campaign

February 19, 2010: Building a Winning Coalition

March 19, 2010: Making Your Message Matter

April 23, 2010: Social Media: Friending, Tweeting & Blogging Your Way to Success

May 14, 2010: Silencing the Naysayers

All webinars will begin at 1:00 PM ET. Registration is available online at www.cfte.org or www.napta.net