El canvi climàtic

Aula Magna de la Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona.

16/04/2013

L’espai operatiu segur

Johan Rockström et al (2009) - A safe operating space for humanity - Nature 461:472-475 doi:10.1038/461472a - Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University - 29 authors

Història de la ciència climàtica

Font: Skeptical Science - http://www.skepticalscience.com – Imatge: John Garrett

James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato (2011) - Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change - En: Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects. A. Berger, F. Mesinger, and D. Šijački, Eds.

Springer (In press) - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute - http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf

Font: Skeptical Science - http://www.skepticalscience.com – Imatge: John Garrett

William R. L. Anderegg et al (2010) - Expert credibility in climate change - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1003187107 - Department of Biology, Stanford University -

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf+html - 4 authors

James Lawrence Powell - The State of Climate Science - Science Progress, 15/11/2012 - National Physical Science Consortium - http://scienceprogress.org/2012/11/27479/

Papers 1991-2012

La cadena causal

Pertorbació – Resposta (1)

Realimentació

G (s)

H (s)

E (s) S (s) ε (s) +

-

S (s) = ε (s) x G (s)

ε (s) = E (s) - S (s) x H (s)

ε (s) = G (s) / S (s)

S (s) = x E (s) )()(1

)(

sHsG

sG

Concentració GHG

Temperatura mitja

Característiques dinàmiques

• Amplificació (si realimentació positiva) o reducció (si realimentació negativa) de la perturbació

• Resposta exponencial (no proporcional)

• Posible retard entre perturbació i resposta (gairebé siempre)

• Posible multiplicitat d’estats d’equilibri

• Existència d’un llindar d’estabilidad

• ‘Vida’ pròpia si ha entrat en zona inestable

Pertorbació – Resposta (2)

Will Steffen et al (2011) - The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship - Ambio: A Journal of the Human Environment 40:739-761 doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0185-x - ANU Climate Change, Institute at the Australian National University (ANU) - - 10 authors

Resposta en temperatura

14

Font: IPCC, 2007

Font: Skeptical Science - http://www.skepticalscience.com

El CO2-òmetre

Richard Alley (2005) - Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes – Science 310:456-460 doi:10.1126/science.1114613 - Department of Geosciences and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University

> 35 Ma; +73 m Sense gel permanent

~ 35 Ma; +73 m; 45 ± 5 m Gel permanent a l’Antàrtida

Preindustrial

Darrer màxim glacial

Escala de temps dels llaços

PALAEOSENS Project Members - Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity - Nature 491:683–691 doi:10.1038/nature11574 - http://www.purdue.edu/discoverypark/climate/assets/pdfs/Making%20sense%20of%20palaeoclimate%20sensitivity.pdf

Sensibilitat climàtica

18

Gerard H. Roe and Marcia B. Baker (2007) - Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable? - Science 318:629-632 doi:10.1126/science.1144735 - Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington

Excés de curtosi

Salvador Pueyo, 2012

Salvador Pueyo (2012) - Solution to the paradox of climate sensitivity - Climatic Change doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0328-x - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) - http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-011-0328-x

Michael E. Schlesinger et al (2012) - A Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate - Journal of Environmental Protection 3:455-461 doi: 10.4236/jep.2012.36055 - Published online: 01/06/2012 - Climate Research Group, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperDownload.aspx?paperID=20038 - 3 authors

Projeccions S=1,5-2.0 °C

Fenòmens extrems

Quirin Schiermeier (2011) - Climate and weather: Extreme measures - Nature 477:148-149 doi:10.1038/477148a - http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110907/full/477148a.html

Esdeveniments catastròfics naturals

23

Font: Munich Re, 2012

Volum de gel a l’Àrtic

Font: Skeptical Science - http://www.skepticalscience.com

Joel B. Smith et al (2009) – Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘reasons for concern’ - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS

106:4133–4137 doi:10.1073/pnas.0812355106 – 15 autores

Son segurs + 2˚C?

Probabilitats ΔT a 2100

Andrei Sokolov et al (2009) - Probabilistic forecast for 21st century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters - Journal of Climate 22:5175–5204 doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1 - Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Anys 2060

Richard A. Betts et al (2011) – When could global warming reach 4°C? – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:67-84 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292 – Published online: 29/11/2010 – Met Office Hadley Centre – 6 authors

27

“Si la retroalimentación con el ciclo del carbono fuera más fuerte, cosa que parece menos probable pero todavía creíble, el calentamiento de 4 ºC podría ser alcanzado en los primeros 2060, en base a predicciones consistentes con el ‘margen probable’ del IPCC.” [énfasis añadido]

Gaia Vince (2009) - How to survive the coming century - New Scientist, Marzo 2009 - http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126971.700-how-to-survive-the-coming-century.html

Las sucesivas ediciones de este informe han demostrado que el objetivo climático de limitar el calentamiento global a 2 °C se hace más difícil y costoso de conseguir cada año que pasa.

Even with the current mitigation commitments and pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent likelihood of exceeding 4°C by 2100. If they are not met, a warming of 4°C could occur as early as the 2060s.

Governments’ ambitions to limit warming to 2°C appear highly unrealistic ... We have passed a critical threshold … Even to have a reasonable prospect of getting to a 4°C scenario would imply nearly quadrupling the current rate of decarbonisation."

Bernhard Lehner et al (2005) - The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis - Energy Policy 33:839–855 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.018

Impactes a Europa

Katherine Richardson et al (2009) - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions - International Scientific Congress Climate Change - Australian National University, ETH Zürich, National University of Singapore, Peking University, University of California - Berkeley, University of Cambridge, University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford, The University of Tokyo, Yale University - http://www.climatecongress.ku.dk - 12 authors

Richard Betts et al (2009) - 4°C global warming: regional patterns and timing - International Climate Conference: 4 Degrees and Beyond - Published online: 30/09/2009 - Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research, Met Office

La síndrome de Venus

35

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2009) - Terra Quasi-Incognita: Beyond the 2°C Line - International Climate Conference: 4 Degrees and Beyond - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research -

http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/ppt/1-1schellnhuber.pdf

Solució?

36

James Hansen et al (2011) – The Case for Young People and Nature: A Path to a Healthy, Natural, Prosperous Future – Columbia University Earth Institute, New York –http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf - 15 autors

Solució?

Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows (2011) - Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:20-44 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0290 - Published online: 29/11/2010 - Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research + School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering + School of Environmental Sciences and School of Development, University of East Anglia; Sustainable Consumption Institute, School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester

Gràcies.

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