egu general assemblyegu2010-10413 ingv-dpc project unrestvienna, 05/05/2010

EGU General Assembly EGU2010-10413

INGV-DPC Project UNREST Vienna, 05/05/2010

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010

Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSINTRO

Emergency Preparedness

definition in advance of tools to assist decision makers

Emergency Preparedness

definition in advance of tools to assist decision makers

Short-term eruption forecasting keys:

1. to recognize anomalous signals and relate them to physical processes

ELICITATIONS

2. to assign probability values STATISTICAL MODEL

3. to quickly provide answers to unexpected phenomena TRAINED COMMUNITY ONLINE TOOLS


Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSINTRO

+

=

STATISTICAL MODELSTATISTICAL MODEL

VOLC. COMMUNITYVOLC. COMMUNITY

FORECASTING TOOLFORECASTING TOOL

INDERECT ELICITATIONS

the community of experts set the parameters of the statistical model


Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSBET_EF



NODE 1

UNREST

unrestno unrest

NODE 2

MAGMATICUNREST

magmano magma

NODE 3

ERUPTION

eruptionno eruption

NODE 4

VENTLOCATION

loc #1loc #2

…loc #700

NODE 5

ERUPTIONSIZE

lava domesmall expl.

medium expl.large expl.

NODE 1-2-3- identification of anomalies indicating each “event” (node)- definition of the “state of anomaly” through thresholds

evaluation of the probability at node from the “state of anomaly” of all informative parameters



measure

BACKGROUND

BACKGROUND ANOMALYANOMALYGray AreaGray Area

THRESHOLD 1 THRESHOLD 2

PARAMETERS

MODEL


Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSELICITATIONS



DELPHI METHODDELPHI METHODstructured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts, facilitating the formation of a group judgement:

• structured information flows• feedback of participants• anonymity of participants

• pre-eruptive node and tools• group of experts trained to ET and elicitation procedures

GOAL: AGREED GROUP OPINIONGOAL: AGREED GROUP OPINION

• 30 researchers within 2 projects from 2005 • 5 elicitations sessions• scores of experts reflecting their consideration within the group• consensus is formed during general discussions

EXPERT GROUPEXPERT GROUP



Pre-elicitation meetings (seminars, meetings, internet forum): statistical model, tools for the elicitation, discussions on the monitoring network, studies/models (cross-feedback), interpretations (consensus-seeking)

Elicitation sessions: physical meetings --> internet session score the other experts, selection of parameters and thresholds

Post-elicitation meetings (moderated discussions sessions): consequence of choices and performance of the model, general discussions on single parameters, measures and definitions, etc.

COMMUNITY-FORMING PROCESSCOMMUNITY-FORMING PROCESS



DURING ELICITATION- Predefined lists of experts and parameters - Online forms to

-selected parameters-assign thresholds-vote the other experts

- Online forum

ONLINE ELICITATION – http://bet.bo.ingv.it/elicitazione/elicitations.htmlONLINE ELICITATION – http://bet.bo.ingv.it/elicitazione/elicitations.html

ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS- Automatic analysis- Stability check through differentiated statistical analyses- Automatic publication of results


Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSRESULTS


Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS

LEGENDA:

Boolean parameters are represented by “YES”

“Gray areas” correspond to variable probability of being in the adjacent states, depending on the measured values

RESULTS

ELICITATION VBACKGROUN

DGray area

UNRESTGray area

MAGM. UNREST

Gray area

ERUPTION

VT (M > 0.8) [ev/day] 5 15 LP/VLP/ULP [ev/month] 2 10

Rate uplift [cm/month] 0.7 1.3

Uplift [cm] 2 6 6 15 T Pisciarelli 100 110 VLP/ULP 1 5 Deep VT (M > 0.8) [ev/day] 2 20 Deep LP (> 2 Km) [ev/day] 3 20 Disp. Hypocenters [Km] 1 3 Tremor YES YESDeep Tremor (>3.5 Km)

YES

Acc. seismic events YESAcc. RSAM YESNew fractures YES YES YESMacr. (dm) variation in def.

YES YES

Migr. max uplift YESExt degassing YES Magm. comp. gases YES HF - HCl - SO2 YES YES YESPhreatic activity YES



BOOLEAN QUANTITATIVE

To UNREST 3 (0.40) 5 (0.60)

To MAGMATIC UN. 6 (0.60) 4 (0.40)

To ERUPTION 8 (0.90) 1 (0.10)

RESULTS

SEISMICITY DEFORMATION GASES

To UNREST 2 (0.25) 3 (0.37) 3 (0.37)

To MAGMATIC UN. 5 (0.50) 3 (0.30) 2 (0.20)

To ERUPTION 4 (0.45) 3 (0.33) 2 (0.22)



SEISMICITY

To UNREST counting VT, LP/VLP/ULP basic observations

To MAGMATIC UN. deep VT, deep LP tremor

depth, wave forms

To ERUPTION acceleration dispersion hypocenters

macroscopic variations

RESULTS


Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSRESULTS

DEFORMATION

To UNREST uplift, uplift rate

Less sensitive:

Too many interpretations heard?

To MAGMATIC UN. uplift

To ERUPTION surf. fracturesmacroscopi variationsmigr. of maximum uplift




GASES

To UNREST T fumaroleExt. degassing struct.

No chemistry: delayed response of gases

To MAGMATIC UN. Acidic gasMagm. component directly into eruption

Smaller changes controlled by hydroth. system

To ERUPTION Acidic gasPhreatic explosions


RESULTS



Seismicity: Highest sensitivity

Deformation: Macroscopic changes

Gases: Macroscopic changes

Seismicity: Highest sensitivity

Deformation: Macroscopic changes

Gases: Macroscopic changes

In Favour of Seismicity:

Longest sesmic record and experience, exceptional sequence largely documented in 1982-84, more developed network, rapidity of information, effective higher sensitivity, …

Against Deformation and Gases:

Interpretations too model-dependent, many contrasting interpretations, large control of hydrothermal system, delayed gas-related signals, …

RESULTS



SUMMARY

• Statistical model (BET_EF) and volcanological interpretation are kept separated:

• separate validations are possible

• experts asked for volcanological interpretation only

• an automatic and easily reviewable tool for eruption forecasting is set

• The 5 yrs long elicitation process provided

• a global picture of the confidence on the various volc. interpretations

• clues to guide future implementations in the monitoring network and research investments

• trained a community of experts to quickly answer to crises

RESULTS

egu general assemblyegu2010-10413 ingv-dpc project unrestvienna, 05/05/2010

Documents

ef elicitations results

intro bet

ef slide

campi flegrei index

ef node

eruption node

unrest node

eruption eruption