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TRANSCRIPT
1
Final version
Education Strategy ReviewPhase One
14 December 2001
This represents the Strategy Unit's analysis.This is not a statement of government policy
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Final version
Education and Skills: Strategic Review
Phase 1: Analysing the data
Our Challenge:
•To identify the long terms trends affecting education:- The knowledge and skills needs of individuals.- The needs of the most deprived.- The skill needs of the economy.
•And thus to identify the long term challenges for the education system.
3
Final version
Executive Summary
• Our educational performance has improved significantly over recent years. Attainment has been increasing at all levels, and we now compare favourably with international benchmarks. We have more people involved in education than most countries, and the numbers with no qualifications has fallen dramatically. We can realistically and plausibly aspire to having a world class education system by 2010, if not before.
• This strong performance is a powerful endorsement for the current education strategy - which has been applied with increasing rigour and confidence in recent years. It may also reflect a sea-change in the expectations and aspirations of parents and children and provide us with a real opportunity to establish a culture that values education and engages us all in its pursuit as students, parents, teachers, employers and citizens.
• However, there are still significant performance challenges to meet. Attainment at some levels may be starting to plateau. We still have a significant number of relatively weak schools and the children in those schools continue to suffer. Children themselves are getting harder to teach - given all the stimulus and influences on their behaviour. Independent schools continue to have a disproportionate effect on perceived standards and on parental choice, particularly in London. Performance in the post-compulsory sector is patchy.
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Final version
Executive Summary - continued
• We face acute challenges in meeting the needs of high risk groups. Of greatest concern is our failure to break decisively into the cycle of social deprivation and educational under-achievement which persists across the generations. This study has confirmed the adverse effect of social background, gender, ethnicity and early failure. We have identified six high-risk segments of the population for whom current efforts may need to be intensified and accelerated.
• Projections to 2010 indicate the scale of this challenge. Significant number of children will continue to leave school with no qualifications. There will still be 3.5 million adults with no qualifications - whilst employers will need 2 million more highly skilled workers than today.
• To accelerate progress, we will need to address the underlying root causes - which appear to lie in the shortcomings of our educational institutions and infrastructure: in the quantity, quality, motivation and methods of teachers; the variable standards of institutional leadership; the lack of a clear vocational route; the limited take-up and use of technology; the antiquated nature of many educational premises; and the backlog effect created by past under-investment in education. They may also lie in the limited ways in which users are able to exert pressure on the education system, and its muted responsiveness to that pressure.
• Phase 2 will examine in greater detail the root causes of our continuing educational problems in pursuit of two primary objectives - to continue the strengthening of overall standards and performance throughout the education system; and to meet the specific needs of particular high-risk segments. We will develop a long term, holistic strategy toachieve world class education in England by 2010 - an education system that engages and inspires us all.
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Final version
Content
Our educational performance has improved greatly over recent years 5
This strong performance is a powerful endorsement of the current educational strategy 20
However, there are still significant performance challenges to be met 29
We face acute challenges in meeting the needs of particular high risk groups 61
Projections to 2010 indicate the scale of the challenge 98
To accelerate progress, we will need to address some underlying root causes 105
Summary of conclusions 142
Phase 2 145
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Final version
Our educational performance has improved greatly over recent years
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Final version
Our educational performance has improved greatly over recent years
• Our educational results now compare well with international benchmarks, and we are approaching world class levels.
• Attainment has been increasing at all levels, and key targets are being met and passed.
• The proportion leaving school with no qualifications is way down, and post-compulsory education attainment is rising.
• HE participation and graduation has seen a massive expansion, and is now amongst the highest in the world.
• More people are directly involved in education than any other leading countries.
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Final version
We are now performing better than the OECD average on age 15 literacy ...
MEAN LITERACY SCORES AT 15 (2000)
SOURCE: OECD Programme for international student assessment (PISA) 2000
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
Finl
and
Can
ada
Irela
nd
Kor
ea
Eng
land
Sw
eden
Bel
gium
Fran
ce US
Den
mar
k
Spa
in
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Luxe
mbo
rg
OECD AVERAGE
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Final version
… and on age 15 numeracy...
MEAN NUMERACY SCORES AT 15 (2000)
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
Japa
n
Kor
ea
New
Zeal
and
Can
ada
Eng
land
Fran
ce
Den
mar
k
Sw
eden
Cze
ch R
ep US
Ger
man
y
Spa
in
Italy
Luxe
mbo
rg
OECD AVERAGE
SOURCE: OECD Programme for international student assessment (PISA) 2000
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Final version
… and science.
MEAN SCIENCE SCORES AT 15 (2000)
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
Kor
ea
Japa
n
Eng
land
Can
ada
Aus
tria
Sw
eden
Fran
ce US
Bel
gium
Spa
in
Ger
man
y
Den
mar
k
Italy
Luxe
mbo
rg
OECD AVERAGE
SOURCE: OECD Programme for international student assessment (PISA) 2000
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Final version
Attainment at age 11 (Key Stage 2) has increased dramatically over the last 5 years.
KEY STAGE 2 RESULTS (PERCENTAGE ACHIEVING LEVEL 4 OR ABOVE)
SOURCE: DfES
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Perc
enta
ge a
chie
ving
leve
l 4 o
r abo
ve English Maths
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Final version
Attainment at Key Stage 3 (age 14) has also improved - although at a significantly slower rate.
KEY STAGE 3 RESULTS (PERCENTAGE ACHIEVING LEVEL 5 OR ABOVE)
SOURCE: DFES
50
55
60
65
70
75
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Perc
enta
ge a
chie
ving
leve
l 4 o
r abo
ve English Maths
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Final version
The Government’s target for 50% of all pupils to achieve five good GCSEs has been achieved this year
PROPORTION ACHIEVING 5+ GCSE (A*-C) AT AGE 15, ENGLAND
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
74/7
5
75/7
6
76/7
7
77/7
8
78/7
9
79/8
0
80/8
1
81/8
2
82/8
3
83/8
4
84/8
5
85/8
6
86/8
7
87/8
8
88/8
9
89/9
0
90/9
1
91/9
2
92/9
3
93/9
4
94/9
5
95/9
6
96/9
7
97/9
8
98/9
9
99/0
0
00/0
1
SOURCE: DfES
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Final version
The proportion leaving school with no qualifications has fallen from 1 in 5 in the mid 1970s to just 1 in 20.
THE PROPORTION OF PEOPLE GETTING NO QUALIFICATIONS AT AGE 16
02468
101214161820
74/75
76/77
78/79
80/81
82/83
84/85
86/87
88/89
90/91
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
NO QUALIFICATIONSSOURCE: DfES
15
Final version
Three quarters of 19 year olds now achieve NVQ Level 2, and half of 21 year olds achieve NVQ Level 3.
ATTAINMENT AT 19 AND 21 (%)
SOURCE: DfES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
NVQ3
NVQ2
•NVQ Level 2 is/or equivalent to 5 or more good GCSEs•NVQ Level 3 is/or equivalent to 2 or more A Levels
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Final version
Participation in HE has seen a massive expansion in the last 20 years.
THE GB AGE PARTICIPATION INDEX FOR YOUNG PEOPLE
SOURCE: Further Education Statistical Record, Universities’ Statistical Record, Higher Education Statistics Agency, Admissions Agencies & National Census.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Academic Year Beginning
AP
I
33%
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Final version
We now have one of the highest levels of university graduation in the world.
FIRST DEGREE GRADUATION RATES 1999
0
10
20
30
40
NZ
UK
Finl
and
Nor
way
Net
herla
nds
US
Spa
in
Can
ada
Japa
n
Sw
eden
Kor
ea
Aus
tralia
Irela
nd
Fran
ce
Bel
gium
Ger
man
y
Italy
Aus
tria
Mex
ico
Cze
ch R
ep.
SOURCE: OECD “Education at a Glance 2001” P169
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Final version
We also have a high rate of adult participation in post-compulsory education.
PERCENTAGE OF ADULTS (25-64) PARTICIPATING IN CONTINUING EDUCATION AND TRAINING 1994-1998
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Den
mar
k
Sw
eden
Finl
and
US
Ger
man
y
Nor
way NZ
UK
Sw
itzer
land
Aus
tralia
Net
herla
nds
Can
ada
Cze
ch R
ep
Bel
gium
Irela
nd
Italy
Hun
gary
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
SOURCE:: OECD “Education at a Glance 2001” P188 (International Adult Literacy Survey (1994-98) and national household surveys)
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Final version
More and more people are directly involved in education.
PARTICIPATION IN EDUCATION BY AGE GROUP
0102030405060708090
100
Presch
ool
Compuls
ory
15-19 HE
19802000
%
Source: DfES
20
Final version
We have one of the highest rates of participation in education amongst leading countries, except ages 15-19.
Source: OECD “Education at a Glance 2001”
ENROLMENT RATES, FULL-TIME AND PART-TIME, BY COUNTRY, 1999
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
4 and under 5 to 14 15 to19 20 to 29 30-39
Age
%
UK US France Germany
21
Final version
This strong performance is a powerful endorsement of the current educational strategy
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Final version
This strong performance is a powerful endorsement of current strategy.
• The strategy of standards, accountability and discipline is clearly having a profound effect.
• There may be a sea-change in the value attached to education.
• Most children clearly understand the importance of education to their future life chances.
• And most parents are keen to be actively involved in their children’s education.
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Final version
The prevailing education strategy focuses on standards, accountability and discipline.
• The National Curriculum was introduced through the 1988 Education Reform Act, and led to greater consistency and openness in the teaching of children aged 5-16.
• School and college performance tables were introduced during the 1990s in order to raise standards, increase accountability, and enable choice.
• From 1998 schools have been required to set and publish performance targets for their pupils at age 11 and age 15.
• Also in 1998 a compulsory literacy hour was introduced and in 1999 a compulsory numeracy hour.
• The School Standards and Framework Act was passed in 1998 and enabled intervention in failing schools.
• Statutory inspection was extended to inspection of LEAs from 1998.
• In addition to educational outcomes, new standards have been set in other areas, for example in 1999 nutritional standards for school meals were introduced.
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Final version
There is a growing understanding of the value created by a strong education system.
• Education increasingly drives economic output and productivity Each extra year of full time education increases output per capita by 6 per cent.
• Education boosts personal incomes and wealth creation opportunities. Each additional year of education increases incomes by 5-15%.
• Education reduces crime. Persistent offenders are almost three times more likely to have no educational qualifications, and 45% of them were excluded from school.
• Education improves health and life expectancy. Education leads to better diet, living and working conditions, lower stress, and better awareness of health factors.
• Education enhances quality of life. Graduate men are less than half as likely to suffer depression as people with below A-level qualifications.
• Education increases social tolerance. Graduates are nearly twice as tolerant as non-graduates.
• Education strengthens civic engagement and social capital. Graduates are twice as trusting and half as cynical and 2-3 times more likely to be involved in voluntary activity.
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Final version
People in Britain now place greater than ever importance on education.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1974 1984 1994 2001
NHSEducationLaw & OrderUnemploymentInflation
RESPONSES TO MORI SURVEY – WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUEFACING BRITAIN TODAY?
Source: MORI (2001)
26
Final version
The majority of children value education as a means of achieving their life goals.
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
%
% AGREEING THAT “SCHOOL HAS TAUGHT ME THINGS WHICH WOULD BE USEFUL IN A JOB”
Source: MORI (2001)
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Final version
The majority claim to respect their teachers and to like school
14
38
57
69
84
Politicians
Local churchleaders
SocialWorkers
Police
Teachers
16-24 YEAR OLDS EXPRESSING CONFIDENCE IN PROFESSIONALS
%
68%
67%
84%
School hasgiven me theconfidence to
makedecisions
School hastaught me
things whichwould be
useful in a job
School workis generallyworth doing
PUPILS’ VIEWS OF SCHOOL
Source: YCSSource: Salvation Army/Henley Centre Report (2001)
28
Final version
On average, parents today spend more time with their children.
TIME SPENT READING TO OR CARING FOR YOUNG CHILDRENMinutes per day
32
95
189
135
19611995
Working mothers Non-working mothers
Source: Gershuny “Changing Times : Work and Leisure in Post-Industrial Society”
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Final version
A significant number of parents are keen to participate more fully in their children’s education.
DESIRE FOR PARENTAL INVOLVEMENT –PARENTS VIEW
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Manual workers Non-manual workers
% OF PARENTS WANTING TO BE A SCHOOL GOVERNOR BY OCCUPATION
Main reasons given for not being a governor were time and lack of
confidence in both groups
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
More involvementcalled for
Things about rightalready
• Parents were generally in favour of testing. Those in manual occupational groups were most in favour.
• Parents found information on examination results published in prospectuses useful when making decisions about schools – league tables were slightly less useful.
Source: DfES Research Evidence
30
Final version
However, there are still significant performance challenges to meet
31
Final version
However, there are still significant performance challenges to meet in schools.
• Performance improvements may be starting to plateau, leaving substantial numbers of children struggling to achieve the expected standards.
• We still have a significant number of relatively weak schools, and the children in those schools continue to suffer.
• Children themselves are getting harder to teach, given all the stimulus and influences on their behaviour.
• Independent schools continue to have a disproportionate effect on perceived standards and on parental choice, particularly in London.
32
Final version
Performance improvements may be starting to plateau.
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN ATTAINMENT LEVELS
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
% c
hang
e in
Atta
inm
ent
KS2
KS3
KS1
GCSE
Will we be able to meet the 2004 targets?
Source: DfES
33
Final version
Significant numbers are still failing to achieve the expected standards - especially at age 14.
% NOT REACHING EXPECTED LEVEL AT EACH STAGE IN CURRENT SYSTEM
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Key Stage 1 (Reading) Key Stage 2 (English) Key Stage 3 (English) 5+ A* to C GCSE
SOURCE: DfES
34
Final version
Despite improvement, a number of schools are still performing poorly.
OVERALL EFFECTIVENESS OF PRIMARY SCHOOLS, 2000
OVERALL EFFECTIVENESS OF SECONDARY SCHOOLS, 2000
05
101520253035404550
Exc
elle
nt /
Ver
y go
od
Goo
d
Sat
isfa
ctor
y
Uns
atis
fact
ory
/ Poo
r
%
05
101520253035404550
Exc
elle
nt /
Ver
y go
od
Goo
d
Sat
isfa
ctor
y
Uns
atis
fact
ory
/ Poo
r
%
SOURCE: The Annual Report of Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Schools
35
Final version
This is reflected in wide variations in performance between schools, even when disadvantage is considered.
KEY STAGE 2 – % PUPILS OBTAINING LEVEL 4+ IN ENGLISH TEST BY FSM STATUS OF SCHOOL
9731547256943185131N =
FSM bands
54321
% a
t lev
el 4
+ E
nglis
h
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
FSM Bands% of pupils known to be eligible for a free school meal
1 up to 8%2 more than 8% & up to 20%3 more than 20% & up to 35%4 more than 35% & up to 50%5 more than 50%
Source: Annual Schools' Census & Performance Tables
SOURCE: Annual Schools' Census & Performance Tables
36
Final version
These variations in performance between schools are narrowing , but they remain substantial.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AVERAGE KS2 POINTS SCORES IN SCHOOLS IN THE 5TH AND 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR 1996 TO 2000
7.006.75
6.25 6.286.09
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Key
sta
ge 2
all
core
sub
ject
s av
erag
e po
ints
sco
re
Median Average Points Score: 25.2 26.0 25.9 27.0 27.5
SOURCE: The Annual Report of Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Schools
37
Final version
A third of schools are responsible for half of the under-achievers.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 3 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 36 39 42 45 48 51 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 78 81 84 87 90 92 94 97 99
% schools
% underachievers
50% of low achievers are located in 30% of schools
Source: School performance data, 2000.
UNDERACHIEVEMENT AT KEY STAGE 2
38
Final version
Kids are "graduating" from childhood at a very early age as evidenced by their patterns of consumption.
44
39
26
26
23
20
19
18
16
14
Magazines/comics
Clothing/footwear/jewelry
Books
Going to sport/leisure center
Video games (buying or renting)
School items (e.g. pencils/stationery)
Toys/board games
CDs/cassette tapes
Cinema
Presents for others
% change since 1998-2
+6
+6
+6
+3
-1
+1
-3
-3
+2
ANSWERS TO THE QUESTION ‘WHICH OF THESE DO YOU REGUARLY SPEND YOUR MONEY ON?’
%*
Source: Mintel “Pocketmoney” (2000)
39
Final version
They are increasingly technologically sophisticated and self sufficient.
OWNERSHIP OF MOBILE PHONES USE OF TEXT MESSAGING
9
25
5665
85
7-8 year olds
9-10 year olds
11-12year olds
13-14year olds
15-16 year olds
Per Cent Messages sent per day
1.92
3.08
3.63
2.91
1.10
2.59
3.03
Girls 7-10
Girls 11-13
Average
Boys 7-10
Boys 11-13
Girls 15-16
Boys 15-16
Source: NOP M.Kids Sept. 2001 Source: NOP Kids.Net Wave 6
40
Final version
Children have access to the internet at home...
HOME INTERNET PENETRATION AMONG CHILDREN (7-16)
31
4451
5765
77
Per cent
Sept1998
Mar 1999
April2001
Oct 1999
April 2000
Oct 2000
Source: Kids Net Wave 5 (2001)
41
Final version
…but it is relatively little used for schoolwork.
CHILDRENS USE OF THE INTERNETGirls 14-16 yearsPer cent
Sending email
Games
Chat
Hobbies
Downloading music
Fun
Sports
Music and pop star information
Homework/schoolwork
5844
4646
39
1826
5
40
Boys 14-16 yearsPer cent
5524
2811
41
3016
14
18
Source: Kids Net Wave 5 (2001)
42
Final version
But the perceived level of disruptive behaviour and bullying in schools is on the increase.
TEACHERS’ PERCEPTION OF DETERIORATION IN PUPIL BEHAVIOUR
59.520.8
9.5
10.2
Behaviour has become very much worse
There has been a fairly markeddeterioration inbehaviour
There has beenlittle or nodeterioration inbehaviour
Unable to commentdue to limitedexperience
Source: University of Warwick (2001)
43
Final version
More than 50% of parents say they would like to send their children to independent schools "if they could afford it".
PERCENTAGE OF ADULTS WHO WOULD SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO INDEPENDENT SCHOOL IF THEY COULD AFFORD TO
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
%
SOURCE: ‘Attitudes Towards Independent Schools’ Research Study Conducted by MORI for Independent Schools Council
44
Final version
Independent schools are perceived to have higher standards of education.
REASONS FOR ADULTS WANTING TO SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO AN INDEPENDENT SCHOOL
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Better standards of education
Smaller classes
Better discipline
Better results
Want the best for my child
Better Start in Life
Better qualified teachers
Individual support from teachers
Better facilities/equipment
Mix with better people
More subjects/better options
Better moral standards
Better for children w ith special needs
If child was bright/clever
Other
Don’t know/no answer
%
SOURCE: ‘Attitudes Towards Independent Schools’ Research Study Conducted by MORI for Independent Schools Council
45
Final version
The proportion of pupils in independent schools has remained remarkably constant.
NUMBERS AND % PUPILS IN ENGLAND ATTENDING INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS
SOURCE: DfES internal analysis
500
510
520
530
540
550
560
570
580
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Num
bers
of P
upils
(Tho
usan
d)
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
Number of pupils in independent schools % of total pupils in independent schools
Forecast
46
Final version
Independent schools do achieve stronger results than maintained schools at age 15
32 33 34.6 35.1 35.5 36.5 37.4 38.5 39.1
49.4 50.553 53.3 53.7 54 54.7 55.7 56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Poin
t Sco
re
Comprehensive Schools (Maintained schools, Non- Grant Maintained)
Independent Schools (Inc. Non-Maintained Special Schools)
AVERAGE GCSE/GNVQ POINTS SCORE AT 15
Source: ‘Statistics of Education: Public Examinations in England 1992-2001’, DfES
47
Final version
And the gap between independent and maintained schools at A-Levels has been widening.
AVERAGE GCE/A-LEVEL POINTS SCORE AT 17
13.6 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.5 15.7 16.4 16.2 16.2
20.1 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.2 23.5 23.8 24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Poin
t Sco
re
Comprehensive Schools (Maintained schools, Non- Grant Maintained)
Independent Schools (Inc. Non-Maintained Special Schools)
Source: ‘Statistics of Education: Public Examinations in England 1992-2001’, DfES
48
Final version
But the value added by independent schools is barely higher than maintained schools.
DISTRIBUTION OF VALUE ADDED SCORES 1999/00
979170272 667156659 104249749 38122145N =
20
10
0
-10
-20
NO. OF CANDIDATES
10 or less
VALU
E AD
DED
SC
OR
E
11 to 50
51 to 100
101 and above
Independent Sixth form collegesMaintained schools Other FE colleges
TYPE OF INSTITUTIONTotal GCSE/GNVQ point score input measure
For those candidates aged 17 attempting 2+ A/AS/aGNVQ qualifications
SOURCE: ‘DfES
49
Final version
..and independent schools invest far more in their pupils than maintained schools.
INDEPENDENT SCHOOL REPRESENTATION AS % OF POPULATION
£0
£1,000
£2,000
£3,000
£4,000
£5,000
£6,000
£7,000
Maintained FE HE
Independent
Cos
t per
Pup
il
Source: Analysis
50
Final version
There are also significant performance challenges to meet in post-compulsory education.
• FE college performance is variable, although there have been improvements and the poorer performers are catching up.
• Pay for FE teachers has fallen compared with school teachers.
• Fifty per cent of lectures are delivered by casual or part-time members of staff - half of whom have no teaching qualification and inspection evidence shows that their performance is less good than that of full-time staff.
• Educational participation at age 17 is relatively low, as is attainment at NVQ Level 2 and 3.
• The overall rate of participation in adult continuing education is comparable with other countries (but behind the Scandinavian countries), although on average our adults spend fewer hours in education and training. This has left us with a legacy of a low-skill workforce,
• Most employers are doing little to rectify this, with work based training aimed at more highly qualified employees.
51
Final version
There is still great variability between colleges, though the poorer performers are catching up.
FE COLLEGE ACHIEVEMENT RATES FE COLLEGE INSPECTION RESULTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00
Bottom 10%Top 10%
World C10%
Good45%
Satisfactory40%
Failing5%
lass
Source: FEFCSource: FEFC
52
Final version
The performance of colleges is improving, but is still low.
% OF FE COLLEGE STUDENTS WHO DO NOT ACHIEVE THEIR STUDY AIMS.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
SOURCE: LFS, Spring 2000
53
Final version
FE Lecturers are paid significantly less than school teachers.
PAY OF SCHOOL TEACHERS, FE LECTURES AND SIXFORM COLLEGES (2001)
£21,000
£21,500
£22,000
£22,500
£23,000
£23,500
£24,000
£24,500
£25,000
£25,500
£26,000
FE Lecturer School Teacher Sixform College Lecturer
Source: DfES
54
Final version
Around a third of FE lecturers are on causal or part-time contracts and they deliver half of all lectures.
CADRE AND ROLE OF CASUAL AND PART-TIME FE LECTURES (2000)
CADRE LECTURES GIVEN
50%
33%
66%
50%
Full-time
Casual/Part-time
Source: DfES
55
Final version
We have one of the lowest participation rates for 17 year olds in formal education.
PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION AGED 17 ENROLLED IN FORMAL EDUCATION, 1999
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sw
eden
Bel
gium
Kor
ea
Net
herla
nds
Japa
n
Ger
man
y
Nor
way
Fran
ce
Cze
ch R
ep.
Aus
tria
Can
ada
Aus
tralia
Por
tuga
l
Den
mar
k
US
Irela
nd
Spa
in
Italy
UK
Gre
ece
Mex
ico
Turk
ey
SOURCE: OECD “Education at a Glance 2001” P135
56
Final version
Participation in adult education is comparable, although participants spend less time in education and training
MEAN HOURS OF PARTICIPATION BY PARTICIPANTS IN CONTINUING EDUCATION
AND TRAINING BY ADULTS (25-64)
PERCENTAGE OF ADULTS (25-64) PARTICIPATING IN CONTINUING EDUCATION
AND TRAINING 1994-1998
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Denmark
Sweden
Finland
US
Germany
Norway
NZ
UK
Switzerland
Australia
Netherlands
Canada
Czech Rep
Belgium
Ireland
Italy
Hungary
Poland
Portugal
0 50 100 150 200 250
Ireland
Denmark
NZ
etherlands
Norway
Italy
Australia
Poland
Hungary
ech Rep
UK
Belgium
Finland
Belgium
Ireland
Italy
Hungary
Poland
Portugal
N
Cz
SOURCE: OECD “Education at a Glance 2001”
57
Final version
And despite increases we remain behind our European competitors in attainment at NVQ Level 2 and 3.
PROPORTION OF THE WORKFORCE QUALIFIED TO “LEVEL 2” OR ABOVE
SOURCE:: National Skills Task Force Research Report (Update to the Skills Audit – Steedman 1999)
NOTE: US and Singapore 1994 figures
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ger
man
y
Fran
ce
Sin
gapo
re*
UK
US
*
58
Final version
Employers typically focus training on their more highly qualified workers.
PARTICIPATION IN TRAINING BY CLASS AND GENDER
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Profes
siona
l
Inter
mediat
eSkil
led (n
on-m
anua
l)
Skilled
(man
ual)
Partly
skille
d
Unskil
led
%
Male Female
Source: LFS, Spring 2000
59
Final version
And employers are increasingly willing to pay a premium for higher level skills.
GRADUATE WAGE PREMIUM AND THE GROWTH IN THE NUMBER OF GRADUATES
Women
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1974-6 1979-81 1984-6 1989-91 1993-5
Time
% w
age
prem
ium
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
% o
f tho
se in
em
ploy
men
t w
ith a
deg
ree
Degree/Alevels % of employed holding a degree
Men
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1974-6 1979-81 1984-6 1989-91 1993-5Time
% W
age
prem
ium
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
% in
em
ploy
men
t with
a d
egre
e
Degree/Alevels % of employed holding a degree
SOURCE: DfES
60
Final version
The wage premia at secondary and tertiary level are greater in the UK (and the US) than in European countries
5070
90110130150
170190
Por
tuga
l
US
UK
Sw
itzer
land
Spa
in
Fran
ce
Finl
and
Irela
nd NZ
Kor
ea
Nor
way
Sw
eden
Ger
man
y
Can
ada
Italy
Den
mar
k
Aust
ralia
Below upper secondary education Higher education
SOURCE: OECD “Education at a Glance 2001” P303
61
Final version
The returns to Vocational qualifications, particularly at NVQ level 2, appear minimal
MALE GROSS WEEKLY EARNINGS BY QUALIFICATION LEVEL
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
All No quals VocationalNVQ Level 2
5+ GCSEs VocationalNVQ Level 3
2+ A levels 1st Degree
£
SOURCE: LFS, Spring 2000
62
Final version
We face acute challenges in meeting the needs of particular high risk segments
63
Final version
We face acute challenges in meeting the needs of particular high risk segments
• The problem of educational under-performance becomes particularly acute when you look beneath the aggregate statistics. Our study has revealed 6 substantial and overlapping segments of the population who are significantly at-risk in our current system. These are:
– The socio-economically disadvantaged.
– Ethnic minority groups.
– “Early failures”.
– Unskilled adults.
– Boys (in comparison with girls).
– Londoners.
64
Final version
The socio-economically disadvantaged
• Our education system is failing to break decisively into the vicious cycle of socio-economic disadvantage, educational under-attainment and social dysfunction.
• Efforts to address this problem are having some impact. The increases in literacy and numeracy at age 11 have brought the lower performing groups and areas up faster than the higher performing ones, narrowing the gap. Government policies for Key Stage 3 and for 14-19 year olds are intended to move in the same direction.
• Nevertheless, the evidence remains overwhelming that those from a socially deprived background have a much greater than average chance of educational under-achievement.
• For instance, 70 per cent of 16 year-olds from unskilled manual backgrounds fail to achieve 5 good GCSE passes, as against 31% from higher social groups. At the extreme, 81% of children living in council accommodation fail to achieve this level.
• The cycle is perpetuated by low levels of participation in post-compulsory education amongst the socially disadvantaged – for instance, only 15% of those from unskilled manual backgrounds participate in higher education, as against 75% for higher social groups.
• And the cycle is perpetuated by being passed from generation to generation - the children of those with poor educational qualifications are more likely to achieve poor qualifications themselves.
• The cycle is completed by the high levels of truancy, unemployment, crime and drug dependency amongst educational under-achievers.
65
Final version
There is a strong correlation between levels of deprivation and pupil performance.
INFLUENCE OF DEPRIVATION ON PUPIL ATTAINMENT
Schools in London: (1996–2000)*Correlation: -69%
% p
upils
who
gai
n 5+
A*–
C G
CSE
s
0 20 40 60 800
20
40
60
80
100
% pupils eligible for Free School Meals
SOURCE: OFSTED reports; Eurley & Creese
66
Final version
Those from a socially deprived background are much more likely to underachieve.
PERCENTAGE OF CHILDREN NOT ACHIEVING 5+ A*-C GCSE PASSES BY:
70%
31%
81%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Unskilled malnual Managerialprofessional
Council rented Owned byparents/self
Parents SEG Accommodation Type
SOURCE: Youth Cohort Study
67
Final version
Similarly, participation in HE reveals a very wide disparity between social groups.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Year
% o
f pop
ulat
ion
I ProfessionalII IntermediateIIN Skilled non manualIIIM Skilled manualIV Semi skilledV Unskilled
Source: Further Education Statistical Record, Universities’ Statistical Record, Higher Education Statistics Agency, Admissions Agencies & National Census.
THE GB AGE PARTICIPATION INDEX FOR YOUNG PEOPLE BY SOCIAL CLASS FROM 1991 TO 2000.
76% of children from higher social groups (professional or managerial) enter HE, but only 14% of those from unskilled manual backgrounds
68
Final version
Low achievement of individuals is perpetuated by low attainment of their children.
ATTAINMENT OF 5+ GCSES AT A*-C BY PARENT’S QUALIFICATION LEVEL
76%
46%
70%
45%
74%
47%
70%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Father has degree
Father has A-levels
Mother has degree
Mother has A-levels
Source: Youth Cohort Study
69
Final version
This is despite disproportionate resources being spent in areas of social deprivation.
TOTAL REVENUE FUNDING PER SECONDARY PUPIL AGED 11-15, 2001/02
£2,000
£2,500
£3,000
£3,500
£4,000
£4,500
£5,000
£5,500
£6,000
£6,500
Average of £3,406 per pupil
LEA Ranked by Funding
There is differential allocation of funding towards deprived areas -the extra funding goes about a third for additional education needs, a third for area cost allowance, and a third for standards fund.
Source: DfES
70
Final version
Ethnic Minorities
• The apparent effect of ethnicity on educational achievement is complex - varying substantially between and within different racial backgrounds.
• For instance, children from Caribbean, Bangladeshi and Pakistani backgrounds have only a 30% chance of achieving 5 or more good GCSE's, against the national average of 50%. But those from Chinese or other Asian background are outperforming the national average, with 70% achieving that level.
• Performance amongst Black children is further complicated by evidence that they start primary school with higher average ability levels, but that their performance deteriorates in relative terms at each subsequent stage.
• All ethnic minorities have higher participation rates post 16 than whites, but certain groups do lower level courses and/or overall achieve lower qualifications.
• Indian, Black African and Chinese men tend to be better qualified than white men, but nearly a quarter of Black Caribbean men and a large numbers of Pakistani and Bangladeshi men have no qualifications.
• All ethnic minority groups have higher unemployment rates than whites, but rates are especially high for black, Pakistanis and Bangladeshi groups.
71
Final version
Attainment varies substantially between different ethnic minorities.
PROPORTION OF ETHNIC GROUPS ATTAINING AT LEAST 5 A*-C GRADE GCSE
Source: Youth Cohort Study
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Ban
glad
eshi
Paki
stan
i
Bla
ckC
arib
bean
Oth
er B
lack
Bla
ckA
frica
n
Whi
te
Indi
an
Oth
er A
sian
Chi
nese
72
Final version
Black children - despite starting above average - soon fall behind.
INEQUALITIES FROM BASELINE TO GCSE BY ETHNIC ORIGIN IN RELATION TO LEA AVERAGE
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bas
elin
e
Key
Sta
ge 1
Key
Sta
ge 2
Key
Sta
ge 3
GC
SE
Black White
Black children appear to start primary school with higher average ability levels, but their performance deteriorates in relative terms at each subsequent stage
Source: Brent and Hackney and Birmingham Survey 1999
73
Final version
The relative performance of ethnic minorities varies with age.
INEQUALITIES FROM BASELINE TO GCSE BY ETHNIC ORIGIN IN RELATION TO LEA AVERAGE
Source: Brent and Hackney and Birmingham Survey 1999
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Bas
elin
e
Key
Sta
ge 1
Key
Sta
ge 2
Key
Sta
ge 3
GC
SE
Black White Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi
Black children appear to start primary school with higher average ability levels, but their performance deteriorates in relative terms at each subsequent stage
74
Final version
All ethnic minorities have higher post-16 participation rates than whites…
% IN FULL TIME EDUCATION
60
70
80
90
100
White
Black A
frica
n
Black C
aribbea
n
Black o
ther
Indian
Pakist
ani
Banglad
eshi
Chines
eOth
er
There is evidence, however, that certain ethnic groups do lower level courses
Source: YCS
75
Final version
…but ethnic minorities tend to achieve lower HE qualifications than whites.
% OF STUDENTES ACHIEVING 2.2 OR LOWER IN GB HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS 1998/99
0
20
40
60
80
White
Black -
Cari
bbea
nBlac
k - A
frica
nBlac
k - O
therIndia
nPak
istan
iBan
glades
hiChines
eAsia
n otherOther
Total
Lower second and undivided 2nd class 3rd class, 4th class pass Unclassified, general & ordinary
Source: HESA
76
Final version
Early Failures
• There is growing evidence that prior attainment dominates social background as a causal factor in subsequent educational performance.
• For instance, a socially disadvantaged child who achieves the expected educational standard at age 11 and continues to do so until age 16 is almost as likely thereafter to succeed at A level and go into HE as children from higher socio-economic groups.
• The corollary is clearly that those who "fail" at an early stage struggle to recover. Those who fail to achieve the required standard at 11 are highly likely to keep failing - especially if they come from socially disadvantaged backgrounds.
77
Final version
There is a clear correlation between prior attainment and current achievement.
INFLUENCE OF PRIOR ATTAINMENT ON GCSE SCORESAverage points score
U.K. 2000 correlation
Grammar ModernComprehensive
2000AverageGCSEpointsscores
1999 key stage 2 all core subjects averagepoints scores*
Source: 1999-2000 Standards and Quality in Education; The Annual Report of Her Majesty's Chief Inspector of Schools
78
Final version
Academic achievement overcomes the impact of social background when looking at participation in education.
PROPORTION IN FT EDUCATION AT 16 BY YEAR 11 ATTAINMENT AND PARENTS’ SEG
81
96
82
66
4944
50
66
93
78
61
4338
29
0
20
40
60
80
100
All 8+ A-C 5-7 A*-C 1-4 A*-C 5+ D-G 1-4 D-G NoreportedGCSEs
%
Higher SEG Lower SEG
Source: YCS
79
Final version
Similarly, the influence of prior attainment is higher than that of social background on HE participation.
PARTICIPATION IN HE AT 18 BY A LEVEL POINT SCORE AND PARENTS’ SEG
74
63
36
76
60
32
0
20
40
60
80
100
25+ 13-24 1-12
%
Higher SEG Lower SEG
Source: YCS
80
Final version
Once a child falls behind, it is incredibly hard to catch up.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Key Stage 2 Key Stage 3 5 Good GCSEs
Failed at previous level Average
% CHANCE OF FAILURE
Source: DfES Pupil Progress Bulletin
81
Final version
Unskilled Adults
• Seven million adults can’t read or count as well as an 11 year old, e.g. they cannot read a medicine bottle or calculate the correct change after a simple purchase in a shop.
• Those with no qualifications remain negative about the value of education and training. However, even those with low qualifications recognise the value they offer.
• A significant proportion of adults do not recognise that they have problems with literacy or numeracy. Self awareness is needed if they are to make demands of the education system.
• Employers complain about the low level of ability and lack of basic and soft skills (e.g. communication, team working) amongst prospective employees at all levels, including graduates.
• This low skill legacy may explain part of the productivity gap with our major competitors.
82
Final version
Seven million adults - one in five- have literacy and numeracy skills below those expected for an 11 year old.
Prose Literacy Level by Economic Status
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oth
erin
activ
e
Hom
e du
ties
Ret
ired
Unem
ploy
ed
Empl
oyed
Stud
ent
All
%
Quantitative Literacy Level by Economic Status
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oth
erin
activ
e
Hom
e du
ties
Ret
ired
Unem
ploy
ed
Em
ploy
ed
Stud
ent
All
%
It has been estimated that a fifth of the working age population cannot read the instructions on a medicine bottle or calculate the correct change after a simple purchase in a shop
SOURCE:: International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS)
83
Final version
Our adult literacy standards are low as a legacy of past under-performance.
PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION, 16 TO 65, AT LITERACY LEVEL 1 (1994-95)
SOURCE:: OECD “Education at a Glance 2001” P39 (International Adult Literacy Survey)
0
20
40
Sw
eden
Ger
man
y
Net
herla
nds
Bel
gium
(Fl)
Aus
tralia
Can
ada
Sw
itzer
land NZ
UK
US
Irela
nd
Pol
and
84
Final version
Those most in need of “up-skilling” are least likely to participate in lifelong learning.
% OF ADULTS NOT ENGAGED IN LEARNING BY PRIOR QUALIFICATION LEVEL
0
10
20
30
40
50
NONE
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
LEVEL 5
Qualification on leaving full-time education
%
Source: National Adult Learning Survey (1997)
85
Final version
Many employers are looking for a range of skills, including basic and soft skills.
SKILLS SOUGHT IN CONNECTION WITH SKILL SHORTAGE VACANCIES: % OF ALL SKILL SHORTAGE VACANCIES
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
Basic
Compu
ting
Advan
ced I
T
Other
Techn
ical /
Practic
al
Communic
ation
Custom
er Han
dling
Team W
orking
Foreign Lan
guagero
bl..Pro
blem so
lving
Manag
emen
tNum
eracy
Litera
cyOth
er
Compa
ny spec
ific
Person
al att
ributes
Experi
ence
Driving
SOURCE:: ‘Skills in England 2001 Research Report’, DfES
86
Final version
Our low standing in adult skills may explain a large part of the international productivity gap.
OUTPUT PER WORKER 1995 AND 1999 (UK=100)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
US Germany France
UK
SOURCE: OECD
87
Final version
Boys (in comparison with girls)
• Girls outperform boys at Key Stage 2 and 3 in English, and get 15% higher average points scores at GCSE, and over 5% more at A level.
• Why do boys do less well?– Possibly biology – girls have bigger brains – or at least a larger corpus callosum, the bit that links left
and right hemispheres.– Type of task – girls do well with sustained, open-ended tasks requiring reflection, boys prefer focused
tasks with clear goals. This means girls tend to do better with coursework.– Perceptions of the male/female roles may play a part.
• Pupils permanently excluded from school are far more likely to be boys than girls. 84.5% of the permanently excluded pupils in 1999/2000 were boys - and black Caribbean boys are four times more likely to be excluded than White boys.
• Girls are as likely as boys to play truant.
88
Final version
Girls outperform boys at Key Stage 2 and 3 in English…
PUPILS ACHIEVING EXPECTED LEVEL* OR BETTER IN KEY STAGE 2 AND 3 TESTS BY GENDER, 2001
Source: DfES, Statistical First Release ‘National Curriculum assessments of 7,11 and 14 year olds by local education authority, 2001* Expected levels are 4 at key stage 2 and 5 at key stage 3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
English Maths Science English Maths Science
Boys
Girls
Key Stage 2 Key Stage 3
89
Final version
… and get 15% higher average points scores at GCSE, and over 5% more at A-level.
AVERAGE GCSE / GNVQ POINTS SCORE OF 15 YEAR OLD PUPILS BY GENDER
AVERAGE GCE A / AS / VCE / AGNVQ POINTS SCORE OF 17-18 YEAR OLD PUPILS BY
GENDER
16.9 17.8
02468
101214161820
Boys Girls
36.6
42.1
05
101520
2530354045
Boys Girls
Source: DfES, Statistical First Release ‘GCSE / GNVQ and GCE A / AS / VCE / Advanced GNVQ results for young people in England, 2000//01 (provisional)
90
Final version
Pupils permanently excluded from school are far more likely to be boys than girls.
Permanent exclusions 1999/2000
Source: DfES, Statistical First Release ‘National Curriculum assessments of 7,11 and 14 year olds by local education authority, 2001* Expected levels are 4 at key stage 2 and 5 at key stage 3
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Boys Girls
Num
ber o
f per
man
ent e
xclu
sion
s Black Caribbean boys are four times as likely as white boys to be permanently excluded from school
91
Final version
Whilst girls are as likely as boys to “play truant”.
PERCENTAGE OF 16 YEAR OLDS WHO RECALL PLAYING TRUANT IN YEAR 11
Source: Youth Cohort Study
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Boys Girls
Persistent Occasional
92
Final version
Londoners
• Inner London concentrates all the elements of disadvantage which appear to drive educational under performance.
• 2½ times more London pupils are eligible for free school meals as in England as a whole.
• London has 2½ times the national average ethnic minority population, 10 times higher than some regions.
• More London schools perform significantly worse than the national average.
• Londoners exhibit greater mobility, with twice as many pupils joining and leaving classes/schools than elsewhere in the country.
• London has over seven times the national average number of teacher vacancies in the most deprived boroughs (over half of all teacher vacancies are in London and the South East).
• Perhaps as a result of this, twice as many London children attend independent schools as the national average (15% versus 7%).
93
Final version
In Inner London 2½ times more pupils are eligible for free school meals than in England as a whole.
% OF SCHOOL PUPILS ELIGIBLE FOR FREE SCHOOL MEALS (2001)
15.8
25.8
42.1
England London Inner London
2.7x
SOURCE: Schools in England 2001, DfEE
94
Final version
London has 2½ times the national average ethnic minority population - 10 times higher than some regions.
ETHNIC MINORITY POPULATION AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION
8%
28%
10%
6% 5% 4% 4% 4%2% 2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
England London WestMidlands
Yorkshireand theHumber
EastMidlands
NorthWest
East SouthEast
NorthEast
SouthWest
SOURCE:: Labour Force Survey
95
Final version
The average performance of London schools is worse than the national average.
% 15 YEAR OLD* MAINTAINED SCHOOL** PUPILS ACHIEVING 5+ A*–C GCSE (2000)
25% of all children in England are taught in London
47 45
36
England London Inner London
-23%
2002 National learning target 50
* Who are entered for 5+ GCSEs
**Including City technology colleges and maintained special schoolsSOURCE: National Statistics – Statistics of Education 2001 edition table 4a; 15a; 2000 GCSE/GNVQ National Summary Results: Schools in England 2001
96
Final version
There are high levels of inter school mobility in London.
MOBILITY IN ENGLISH SECONDARY SCHOOLS
8.5
3.4 2.7 3.4 2.7
3.7 3.3 3.53.0
7.1
Inner London Outer London Metropolitan Unitary Shire
% Pupils leaving school*
% Pupils joining school*
* Other than at the normal time
SOURCE: 1999–2000 Standards and Quality in Education; The Annual Report of Her Majesty's Chief Inspector of Schools
97
Final version
The most deprived London boroughs have over seven times the national average of teacher vacancies.
% TEACHER VACANCIES IN MAINTAINED SECONDARY SCHOOLS (JANUARY OF EACH YEAR)
Over half of all teacher vacancies are in London and the south east. This is partly due to London house prices,
which have risen at three times the rate of teacher salaries in
the last five years
0.6
1.3
3.9
4.8
3.7
1.4
4.0
5.34.9
0.7
1.8
4.6
5.3 5.4
0.5
Englandand Wales
London Southwark Hackney Tower Hamlets
17.5 28.2 53.8 55.7 66.7
98 99 00 98 99 00 98 99 00 98 99 00 98 99 00
FSM*, %* 1998 figures
SOURCE:”Teachers in England and Wales” 2000, DfEE
98
Final version
Perhaps as a result of this, twice the national average of pupils in Inner London attend independent schools.
INDEPENDENT SCHOOL CHILDREN AS A PERCENTAGE OF MAINTAINED SCHOOL* CHILDREN, 2000
England London Inner London
7.5
11.7
15.9
These pupils come disproportionately from wealthier homes and higher KS2 achievement groups
* Primary and secondary schools
SOURCE: Schools in England 2001, DfEE
99
Final version
Projections to 2010 indicate the scale of the challenge
100
Final version
In 2010 we may have...
• 30,000 children leaving school with no qualification at all.
• 250,000 achieving less than 5 good GCSEs.
• 200,000 children leaving education after 16.
• 3.5 million adults with no qualifications.
• 5.5 million adults unable to read an/or write to the level expected of an 11 year old.
• Employers will require 2 million more highly skilled workers.
101
Final version
Continued progress in GCSE attainment will on current trends still leave 40% failing to reach the standard.
PROPORTION ACHIEVING 5+ GCSE (A*-C) AT AGE 15, ENGLAND
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
74/7
5
76/7
7
78/7
9
80/8
1
82/8
3
84/8
5
86/8
7
88/8
9
90/9
1
92/9
3
94/9
5
96/9
7
98/9
9
00/0
1
02/0
3
04/0
5
06/0
7
08/0
9
SOURCE: Projection
Forecast
102
Final version
…around 3.5million adults will have no qualifications, 11% of the total working population.
% OF THE ADULT WORKING POPULATION WITH NO QUALIFICATIONS
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Forecast
SOURCE:SOURCE:SOURCE: Projection
103
Final version
Even if the new policies reach the Moser target in 2010, that would still leave 3.5m without basic skills.
FORECAST REDUCTION IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE LACKING BASIC SKILLS
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Moser target
2010
Projection
SOURCE:SOURCE:SOURCE: Projection
104
Final version
Employers’ demand for highly skilled workers is set to increase by 2 million over the next decade.
EMPLOYMENT BY HIGHER LEVEL QUALIFICATION, GREAT BRITAIN - FORECAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1981 1991 1999 2010
Thou
sand
s
First Degree Graduates Postgraduates
SOURCE:: Projections of Occupations and Qualifications 2000/2001, Institute for Employment Research
105
Final version
The majority will be in professional, associate professional and personal service occupations.
PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY OCCUPATION
SOURCE: IER, Projections of Occupations and Qualifications (DfEE,2001)
64
-3
31
42
-176
14
272
433
-40
-242
-100
146
603
-20
42
517
432
111
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800
Elementary occupations
Process, plant andmachine operatives
Sales and customerservice occupations
Personal serviceoccupations
Skilled trades occupations
Administrative andsecretarial occupations
Associate professionaland technical occupations
Professional occupations
M anagers and seniorofficials
ThousandsMale Female
`
106
Final version
To accelerate progress, we will need to address some underlying root causes
107
Final version
To accelerate progress, we will need to address some underlying root causes.
• The quantity, quality, motivation and methods of teachers.
• The variable standards of institutional leadership.
• The limitation of FE and vocational provision.
• The limited take-up and use of technology.
• The antiquated nature of educational premises.
• The impact of under-investment on current educational spending.
108
Final version
Teachers
• Teacher numbers have started to increase after a long period of decline, but pupil:teacher ratios have barely improved in 30 years.
• With a coming retirement bulge, the recruitment challenge may intensify, especially in key subjects like English, Maths and languages.
• As important is the challenge of improving teacher quality which has a pronounced impact on performance, and which remains highly variable.
• The concern expressed by many is that not enough of the best people are going into teaching, because of a pervasive loss of status, purpose, commitment and well being.
• Teacher’s pay is perceived as part of the problem - particularly in Inner London -but of greater concern are the underlying characteristics of teachers’ jobs.
• Accelerated progress towards world class will depend upon attracting and retaining more of the best teachers.
109
Final version
Teacher numbers have started to increase after a long period of decline.
FTE TEACHERS IN SERVICE IN THE MAINTAINED SECTOR, ENGLAND
350,000
370,000
390,000
410,000
430,000
450,000
470,000
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Teac
hers
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Pupils (millions)
Regular Teachers Occasional Teachers Primary and Secondary Pupils
SOURCE: DfES
110
Final version
Pupil:teacher ratios have barely improved over the last 20 years.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Pupi
ls:T
each
er R
atio
PUPIL : TEACHER RATIO , ENGLAND
SOURCE: Calculation
111
Final version
By international standards we still have a relatively high pupil : teacher ratio.
PUPIL : TEACHER RATIOS 1999
05
10152025303540
Kor
ea
Turk
ey
Mex
ico
Cze
ch R
ep UK
Irela
nd
Japa
n
Ger
man
y
NZ
Fran
ce
Can
ada
Finl
and
Aus
tralia
Net
herla
nds
US
Spa
in
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Sw
eden Italy
Hun
gary
Den
mar
k
Primary Secondary
Source: OECD “Education at a Glance 2001” P243
112
Final version
There will be increased demands on recruitment given the age profile of the teacher stock.
AGE PROFILE OF TEACHER STOCK
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65
Under recruitment in 1980s
1970s Boom in recruitment
Retired before change in rules
Increased recruitment in 1990s
Source: DfES Teacher Statistics
113
Final version
However, turnover is primarily driven by moves out of the sector.
1999TURNOVER OF TEACHER STOCK
Retirements
Newly qualified
17,400New to maintained sector 6,100
Returned to maintained sector 12,900
Out of maintained sector 22,700
Age
2,100
Ill-health
2,400
Premature
4,100
Teachers in Service
425,200
4% 1% 3%
5%
Inflow: 36,400 – 8%
Outflow: 31,300 ~ 7%2%
Source: DfES Analytical Services Database of Teacher Records and Capita Pensioner Statistical System
114
Final version
We might need more than 30 per cent of English and Maths graduates to become teachers.
TEACHER RECRUITMENT TARGETS BY SUBJECT, 1999
-17.9All
-10.9RE
+15.2PE
-9.8Music
-15.8Art
+2.3History
-16.4Geography
-32.9Modern Languages
-40.5IT Technology
-2.7Science
-23.2Maths
-6.4English
Per Cent Variation from
TargetSubject
Source: Graduate output figures Student in Higher Education Institutions 1998/99, Cheltenham: HESA 2000
30.76,2751,297English
5. History, Economic and Social History.
4. French, German, Spanish and Balanced Combinations within languages.
3. Includes Biological Sciences Subject Group without Psychology, Physical Sciences Subject Group without Geography, and Combined or General Science subjects. For chemistry N = 3624, and physics N = 2320.
2. Mathematical Sciences Subject Group.
1. Personal communications from TTA and Higher Education Funding Council for Wales.
47.71,339639RE
22.02,521555Music
23.44,5361,062Geography
14.95,862 5872History
42.74,932 42,106Languages
9.824,119 32,355Science
37.14,250 21,577Maths
%Graduate Output
PGCE target 1
Subject
SOURCE: Smithers et al (2001).
TEACHER RECRUITMENT TARGETS AS A PROPORTION OF GRADUATE OUTPUT
115
Final version
Teacher quality has a critical impact on attainment.
IMPACT OF QUALITY OF TEACHING ON ATTAINMENT (LONDON SECONDARY SCHOOLS)
% pupils achieving 5+A* – C GCSEs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
% of pupils at school achieving5+ A* – C GCSEs% of pupils at school who shouldachieve 5+ A* – C GCSEs basedon schools deprivation levels*
% point difference between actual andexpected score
-13 -8 +1 +18
Unsatisfactory** Satisfactory*** Good Very good
Quality of teaching, years 10-11
SOURCE: London OFSTED reports 1996-2000
116
Final version
And while the quality of teaching is improving there are still wide variations.
QUALITY OF TEACHING IN PRIMARY SCHOOLS, 2000
QUALITY OF TEACHING IN SECONDARY SCHOOLS, 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Exc
elle
nt /
Ver
y go
od
Goo
d
Sat
isfa
ctor
y
Uns
atis
fact
ory
/ Poo
r
%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Exc
elle
nt /
Ver
y go
od
Goo
d
Sat
isfa
ctor
y
Uns
atis
fact
ory
/ Poo
r
%
SOURCE: The Annual Report of Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Schools
117
Final version
Teachers’ pay has kept pace with the average of non-manual occupations.
RATIO OF THE MEAN AVERAGE EARNINGS OF FULL-TIME TEACHERS TO FULL-TIME NON-MANUAL EMPLOYEES
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
WomenMen
SOURCE: New Earnings Survey
118
Final version
Teachers in maintained schools are paid far less than their colleagues in independent schools.
MALE AND FEMALE PAY IN MAINTAINED AND INDEPENDENT SECTORS
£32,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Maintained Secondary (men)
Independent Secondary (men)
Maintained Secondary (women)
Independent Secondary (women)£30,000
£28,000
£26,000
£24,000
£22,000
£20,000
Source: DfES Analytical Services Database of Teacher Records
119
Final version
For female teachers, pay is below that of other graduate occupations.
FEMALE PRIMARY TEACHERS’ WAGES RELATIVE TO OTHER PROFESSIONS
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Year197
4197
6197
8198
0198
2198
4198
6198
8199
0199
2199
4199
6199
8EQUALITYNursesaccountants
Source: New Earning Survey
120
Final version
However, pay compares favourably internationally.
RATIO OF SALARY OF PRIMARY TEACHER TO GDP PER CAPITA AFTER 15 YEARS
SOURCE: ‘Education at a Glance’ 2001, OECD.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Kore
a
New
Zea
land
Portu
gal
Gre
ece
Switz
erla
nd
Spai
n
Ger
man
y
Mex
ico
Engl
and
Aust
ralia
Scot
land
Irela
nd
Turk
ey
Belg
ium
(Fl.)
Denm
ark
Neth
erla
nds
Belg
ium
(Fr.)
Fran
ce
Finl
and
Swed
en
Aust
ria
Italy
Unite
d St
ates
Norw
ay
Icel
and
Hung
ary
Czec
h Re
p.
Coun
tries
Ave
rage
Relative primary teacher salaries are above the OECD average, the US, France and Italy, but
slightly behind Germany. There is a similar situation in secondary
schools.
121
Final version
But recruiting and retaining the best teachers is handicapped by perceived features of the job.
PROFESSIONAL REASONS FOR LEAVING POSTS FOR THOSE ON PERMANENT CONTRACTS
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
School Management
Hourse worked
Pupil Behaviour
Lack of promotion
School resources
Too many responsibilities
Pay
Journey to work
Class sizes
Inconvenient location
Premises
Collegues
School Neighbourrhood
LEA
OFSTED inspection
Lack of responsibility
School reputation
%
SOURCE: ‘Teacher Supply & Retention in London 1998-99
122
Final version
Institutional leadership
• It is widely accepted that the quality of leadership is a significant factor in the performance of educational institutions. However the quality of leadership is variable.
• Much recent policy has focused on recruiting and training an elite cadre of institutional leaders, and we should reap the benefits of that investment in the years to come. Our current cadre of headteachers measures up well against the best in the world.
• In the past, head teachers and other institutional leaders have routinely complained that they had neither the freedom nor the tools to do their jobs properly. Our structures and processes, complex and burdensome as they were, gave the impression (and the reality ?) that we did not trust them.
• The current initiative aimed at devolving authority to heads and other institutional leaders is aimed at addressing that.
123
Final version
Good leadership is a key factor in achieving attainment despite disadvantage.
RANGE OF PERFORMANCE AMONG SIMILAR SCHOOLS
7065
4743
2127 25
14
40
50
100
15-year old pupils scoring5+ A*–C GCSE during last OFSTED inspection year%
Brampton Manor School,NewhamFSM eligibility % with* >5 A–CExclusions as % of pupilnumbers% of teaching rated satisfactory better
OFSTED comments include:“Pupils are set undemandingwork”“Poor behaviour is notconsistently well managed”“Evaluation of the impact of teaching is not effective”
3%25%9%
83%
Least deprivedquintile *
Most deprived quintile *
Highbury Fields School,IslingtonFSM eligibility % with* > 5 A–CExclusions as % of pupilNumbers% of teaching ratedsatisfactory or better
OFSTED comments include:“The head gives very good leadership to staff and students”“Good quality of assessmentand planning has a positiveeffect on pupils’ attitude tolearning”
49% 43%3%
95%
99
%
SOURCE: OFSTED reports
124
Final version
The best head teachers are able to increase attainment
IMPACT OF HEADTEACHER ON ATTAINMENT– LONDON SECONDARY SCHOOLS
% pupils achieving 5+A* – C GCSEs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Unsatis-factory
Satisfactory Good Very good Excellent/ outstanding
% of pupils at school achieving5+ A* – C GCSEs% of pupils at school whoshould achieve 5+ A* – CGCSEs based on schoolsdeprivation levels*% point difference betweenactual and expected score
-9 -7 -5 +5 +4
Head teacher ratingSOURCE: London Ofsted reports 1996-2000
125
Final version
Vocational Provision
• There is no clear vocational option open at age 16 which has the same status and support accorded to the academic route through A-Levels and onto HE.
• The issues of quantity, quality, motivation and motivation as discussed in relation to school teachers applies similarly to FE lecturers - except in for pay, where FE lectures are paid on average around 10 per cent less than school teachers.
126
Final version
There is no clear vocational route at 16 for those not taking A-Levels.
LEARNING ACTIVITY AT 16 OF THOSE WHO GOT LESS THAN 5+ GOOD GCSES
(FULL TIME EDUCATION AND GST)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
GCE
A/A
S Le
vel
Adva
nced
GNV
Q
Oth
er le
vel 3
or e
quiv
No c
ours
e
NVQ
leve
l 2
NVQ
3
Not s
tate
d
Inte
rmed
iate
GNV
Q
Oth
er L
evel
2 o
r equ
iv
GCS
E
NVQ
leve
l 1
Foun
datio
n G
NVQ
Oth
er le
vel 1
or e
quiv
Oth
er c
ours
es le
vel
unkn
own
Less than good GCSES5 or more good GCSEs
SOURCE:SOURCE:SOURCE: YCS
127
Final version
Technology
• There is increasing empirical evidence that ICT enables enhanced performance in schools and colleges.
• Because of this the Government has set and funded aggressive targets for computers per pupil and Internet connections.
• Not withstanding this progress in recent years, technology has so far had a markedly less profound effect on the UK educational experience than on almost any other aspect of modern life.
• Part of the reason lies in the limited availability of custom designed software and applications, which is now being addressed though the “Curriculum On-Line” initiative.
• The other part of the reason lies in the low aptitude and confidence in the use of ICT by many teachers.
• Until these constraints are removed, there will be a growing mismatch between the growing technological application of students and their educational experiences.
128
Final version
There is increasing empirical evidence that ICT enables higher educational attainment.
IMPACT OF ICT ON KEY STAGE 3 RESULTS (% LEVEL 5 AND ABOVE)
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Science Maths English
Poor ICT resources Very good ICT resources
SOURCE: Key Figures from the DfEE ‘Survey of Information and Communications Technology in Schools 2000’
129
Final version
The number of computers per pupil is rising, reaching towards the targets.
ICT USE IN THE CURRICULUM, PRIMARY SCHOOLS, 2000
13579
1113151719
Primary Secondary Special
1998 1999 2000 Target 2002
Pupi
ls p
er c
ompu
ter
SOURCE: Key Figures from the DfEE ‘Survey of Information and Communications Technology in Schools 2000’
130
Final version
The number of schools connected to the internet has also grown rapidly, approaching 100%.
PERCENTAGE OF SCHOOLS CONNECTED TO THE INTERNET IN ENGLAND
This compares well to the US where 99% of
schools are connected to the internet and
84% of of classrooms have internet access
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Primary Secondary Special
1998
1999
2000
SOURCE: Key Figures from the DfEE ‘Survey of Information and Communications Technology in Schools 2000’
131
Final version
However, the use of ICT to support curriculum teaching is still quite limited.
ICT USE IN THE CURRICULUM, PRIMARY SCHOOLS, 2000
SOURCE: ‘Survey of Information and Communications Technology in Schools 2000’, England, DfEE.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Art
Des
. and
Tec
.
Engl
ish
Geo
grap
hy
His
tory
Hum
aniti
es IT
Mat
hs
Lang
uage
s
Mus
ic PE RE
Scie
nce
Oth
er
% o
f Sch
ools
132
Final version
This may be because many teachers are not yet confident in the use of ICT.
Teachers Confidence and Training in the Use of ICT
0
20
40
60
80
feelconfidentwith ICT
receivedtraining in
last 2years
feelconfidentwith ICT
receivedtraining in
last 2years
feelconfidentwith ICT
receivedtraining in
last 2years
Primary Secondary Special
%
1998 1999 2000
SOURCE: Key Figures from the DfEE ‘Survey of Information and Communications Technology in Schools 2000’
133
Final version
Many pupils feel more confident in the use of ICT than their teachers.
PROPORTION OF CHILDREN WHO FEEL THEY KNOW MORE OR LESS ABOUTCOMPUTERS AND THE INTERNET THAN THEIR TEACHERS %
Children who feel they know more
Children who feel they know less
37
39
30
28
Computers
Internet
46
28
Boys
Girls
48
30
Boys
Girls
Source: NOP: KID.Net Wave 5 2000
134
Final version
Premises
• The evidence is clear that modern, custom-designed premises lead to better standards and higher motivation amongst teachers and students.
• In other walks of life, evidence like this has led to the complete transformation of property estates ( retail supermarkets, corporate offices - even government premises).
• In contrast, much of the educational property estate has remained relatively untouched. Of the 24,000 schools in England which daily accommodate 15-20% of the population, only 14% operate from buildings constructed since 1976.
• A high proportion of our educational premises have outlived their design life, and many are in a state of dilapidation - almost to the point of being dysfunctional.
• As recently as 1996-7, we were spending only £683 million p.a. on school buildings - an average of £90 per pupil - most of it on expanding premises in response to pupil numbers, rather than to improve or repair existing schools. Since 1997 there has been considerable investment to improve school buildings and in 2003-4, we will invest £3.5 billion - a five-fold increase - with 25% coming from the private sector through the PFI.
135
Final version
Only 14% of schools were built since 1976; most are now beyond their ‘design’ life.
STATUS OF THE SCHOOL STOCK
Table 1: Age of Buildings
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Construction period
Design Life
Intended Replacement period
Pre-1919 14% of stock
Inter-War 14% of stock
1944-66 33% of stock
Post 1966 37% of stock
Exceeding Design Life, now awaiting replacement
SOURCE: DfES
136
Final version
80% of schools exceed their design life now. Current plans will reduce this, but it will still be 70% in 2010.
ESTIMATED PERCENTAGE OF SCHOOLS EXCEEDING THEIR DESIGN LIFE
64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE:SOURCE:SOURCE: Projection
137
Final version
Since 1997 there has been considerable investment to improve school buildings.
RECENT / FUTURE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS FOR CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN SCHOOL BUILDINGS IN ENGLAND
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1996/7 1997/8 1998/9 1999/0 2000/1 2001/2 2002/3 2003/4
£ bn
By 2003-4 25% of funding will come from the private
sector through PFI
SOURCE: DfES
138
Final version
Funding
• Since 1998, education spending has risen as a proportion of GDP and by 2003-4 will be 5.3% of GDP.
• It seems to be clear however that we need to invest even more if we are to achieve a world class education system by 2010-2015, by investing further in, for example: the number and quality of teachers and lecturers; infrastructure, particularly of schools; and continued investment in technology.
• As a proportion of GDP, we are still spending below the OECD and EU averages. And the upper quartile of OECD countries all commit more than 6% of GDP on education through public expenditure. We did this in the 1970s and if that level had been maintained in the last twenty years over £100 billion extra would have been invested. Given the levels of return from investment in education the expenditure would have more than paid for itself.
• Private spending on education has continued to increase rapidly in real terms, and we estimate it now exceeds £7 billion (including independent school fees, private spending on further and higher education, parental spending on books and software etc.).
• Estimates suggest employers spend perhaps £23 billion on training (the majority of this in wage costs of people undergoing training).
139
Final version
Public expenditure on education is catching up the OECD average (5.3%) but lags leading countries.
PUBLIC SPENDING ON EDUCATION AS A % OF GDP
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
74/75
76/77
78/79
80/81
82/83
84/85
86/87
88/89
90/91
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09Planned
scenario 6% is below the level of the upper quartile of OECD countries; Scandinavia, France, Austria, New Zealand, Canada spend 6% or more
SOURCE: ‘United Kingdom Education 1997-2001’ H. Glennerster, LSE and DfES
140
Final version
The UK is below the OECD average in public expenditure on education, but still in the middle of the pack.
INTERNATIONAL SPENDING ON EDUCATION AS A % OF GDP
0
2
4
6
8
10
Den
mar
k
Sw
eden
Nor
way NZ
Icel
and
Aus
tria
Finl
and
Fran
ce
Can
ada
Por
tuga
l
Sw
itzer
land
Pol
and
Bel
gium U
S
UK
Italy
Net
herla
nds
Aus
tralia
Ger
man
y
Hun
gary
Spa
in
Irela
nd
Cze
ch R
ep.
Kor
ea
Japa
n
Gre
ece
Turk
ey
Pre-primary, primary and secondary Higher education
SOURCE: OECD “Education at a Glance 2001” P100
141
Final version
We still have an enormous amount of ground to make up after years of under-investment.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN UK EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION COMPARED WITH SPENDING 6% OR 6.5 % OF GDP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1999
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
£ m
illio
n
Shortfall compared to 6.5%of GDP Shortfall compared to 6% of GDP
The shortfall equals about £100bn if we had spent 6% of GDP over the last 20 years and about £150bn if we had spent 6.5% of GDP
6% is below the level of the upper quartile of OECD countries; Scandinavia, France, Austria, New Zealand, Canada spend 6% or more
Source: Estimates
142
Final version
The high rates of return show that increased investment in education is economically desirable.
ESTIMATED SOCIAL RATES OF RETURN
5%-9%5%-7%OND/BTEC Nationals
14%-21%15%-21%2+ A-levels
9%-11%6%-8%First Degrees
WomenMen
Source: DfES (internal estimate)
143
Final version
Summary of conclusions
144
Final version
Summary of conclusions
• This Phase 1 report has drawn two apparently conflicting conclusions - that our educational performance has improved greatly; but that elements of our education system still face significant challenges.
• The evidence of improved performance is palpable and impressive. Attainment levels are improving at all levels, we are now matching and beating international benchmarks, and we have more people involved in education than any other leading country. It is now plausible and realistic
• to believe that the UK could have a world-class education system by 2010, if not before.
• This is a powerful endorsement of the strategy of standards, accountability and discipline - and it also gives us hope that as a nation we are adopting a "culture of learning" at all levels of society, which will enable us to achieve even higher performance levels in the future.
• This excitement, however, is tempered by the knowledge that our education system is still failing many of those who need it most - that the encouraging progress of many within our education system is offset by the persistent failure of others to achieve even the most basic standards of attainment, with often devastating implications for their adult lives.
• And of greatest concern is our failure to make a decisive break in the connection between social deprivation and educational under-achievement, which underpins the persistent social divide in much of the UK, and especially in areas like Inner London.
145
Final version
Summary of conclusions
• So, projections of educational performance to 2010 convey a mixed message. By 2010, our average performance could well be at or near the top of the educational league tables, and a clear majority of our people could be well educated by generally accepted standards. And still we could have a large number of people who had failed to achieve their full potential, at enormous cost to themselves and to the nation.
• If we are to make accelerated progress in addressing these concerns, we will need to focus even more effort - and conceivably funding - on some of the persistent root causes of under-performance in our education system. We will need to get more of the best people into teaching and keep them there; to develop and support outstanding educational leaders; to ensure that vocational education is at least as good as academic education; to make full and effective use of technology; and to ensure that we have modern, custom-designed premises that are fit for their critically important role in our society.