economic indicators: february 1997 - st. louis fed

105th Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators

FEBRUARY 1997(Includes data available as of March 5, 1997)

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

L I B R A R Y

MAR. 2 4 1997

RESERVECHICAGO

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1997

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, ChairmanCONNIE MACK, Florida, Vice Chairman

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

DONALD A. MANZULLO (Illinois)MARK SANFORD (South Carolina)MAC THORNBERRY (Texas)JOHN T. DOOLITTLE (California)JIM McCRERY (Louisiana)FORTNEY PETE STARK (California)LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)MAURICE D. HINCHEY (New York)CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York)

SENATE

WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah)ROD GRAMS (Minnesota)SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas)JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama)JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia)

CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

JANET L. YELLEN, ChairALICIA H. MUNNELL, Member

JEFFREY A. FRANKEL, Member-Nominee

{PUBLIC LAW 120—S!ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That theJoint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and thata sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeantat Anns of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copiesto the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint EconomicCommittee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depositorylibraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949. , v.

Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch,Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing)from:

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ISBN 0-16-054218-9

11


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME AND SPENDINGGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTIn the fourth quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose5.3 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 3.9 percent, and the Implicit price deflatorrose 1.4 percent.

BltUONS OF DOUARS (RATIO SCALE) BILUONS Of DOUARS (RATIO SCALE)

8,000

7,400

7,200

6,800

6/400

6,000

5,600

5,200

4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

5EA5ONAU.Y ADJUSTH) AWUAL RATES

^

^~-

x^

IN aGDP

IAINED(1992)DOU\

s- ~

s

_ - _

1 1 t

1982

X

//i i t1983

x-

S

1984

,-

x

f 1 1

1985

, — — "

^s~~

\ \ 11986

>•

'-'

^\

LARS

x^

x^ GDP' IN CURRENT DOUARS

i i i1987

l I I1988

1 1 1

1989

--...

x —

1 1 11990

^

l i i

1991

fS^~

1992

.-<

L t L

1993

.,-'

i i i1994

"

t i i1995

X

^

l i l1996

8,000

7,600

7,200

6,800

6,400

6,000

5,600

5,200

4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

SOURCE DEFftHTMENT Of CQMMBKE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ACMSBtS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198819891990199119921993199419951996'1991- IV1992: IV1993: I

JJTTTIV

1994- InmIV

1995: Inmrv

1996- IninIV '

Grossdomesticproduct

5,049.65,438.75,743.85,916.76,244.46,553.06,935.77,253.87,575.96,002.36,383.06,442.66,506.26,574.46,688.66,776.06,890.56,993.17,083.27,149.87,204.97,309.87,350.67,426.87,545.17,616.37.715.4

Personalcon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures'

3,349.73,594.83,839.33,975.14,219.84,454.14,700.94,924.95,152.04,027.14,329.64,367.64,424.84,481.04,543.14,600.94,666.24,738.34,798.24,840.64,910.54,957.94,990.55,060.55,139.45,165.45,242.7

Grossprivate

domesticinvest-ment

773.9829.2799.7736.2790.4871.1

1,014.41,065.31,116.4

760.9816.1843.6855.9873.8911.2957.6

1,016.51,033.61,050.11,072.01,050.31,074.81,064.01,068.91,096.01,156.21,144.3

Exports and importsof goods and services

Netexports

-106.1-80.4-71.3-20.5-29.5-62.7-94.4-94.7-99.1-14.8-42.7-47.9-59.6— 745-68.8-78.8-93.0

-107.0-98.7

-108.7-115.3-87.6-67.2-86.3-99.2

-120.2-90.8

Exports

447.2509.3557.3601.8639.4657.8719.1807.4855.1624.4649.1646.9660.4645.3678.7678.9707.4729.2761.0776.1797.3819.0837.0839.5850.0844.3886.7

Imports

553.2589.7628.6622.3669.0720.5813.5902.0954.3639.3691.8694.8720.0719.8747.5757.6800.4836.1859.6884.8912.6906.6904.2925.8949.2964.5977.5

Government consumption expendituresand gross investment

Total

1,032.01,095.11,176.11,225.91,263.81,290.41,314.71,358.31,406.61,229.21,280.01,279.31,285.11,294.11,303.21,296.41,300.81,328.21,333.51,345.81,359.41,364.61,363.41,383.71,408.81,414.81,419.3

Federal

Total

457.3477.2503.6522.6528.0522.6516.4516.6523.0515.5535.0525.5520.1521.3523.5511.3509.4523.8520.9519.7522.0516.8507.7518.6529.6525.5518.2

Nationaldefense

354.0360.6373.1383.5375.8362.7352.0345.5347.0373.0375.3365.7362.7361.2361.3346.7349.3362.3349.7347.6351.7345.7337.1343.9353.7348.8341.4

Non-defense

103.3116.7130.4139.1152.2159.9164.3171.0176.0142.6159.7159.8157.4160.1162.2164.6160.0161.5171.2172.1170.3171.1170.6174.7175.8176.7176.8

Stateandlocal

574.7617.9672.6703.4735.8767.8798.4841.7883.7713.6745.1753.8765.0772.7779.7785.0791.4804.4812.6826.1837.3847.7855.7865.1879.2889.3901.0

Finalsales of

domesticproduct

5,038.75,407.05,735.85,919.06,237.46,532.46,876.27,216.77,560.95,980.96,376.66,422.86,484.66,552.36,669.86,735.96,816.06,928.57,024.67,091.77,170.97,271.57,332.87,428.67,537.17,579.67.698.2

Grossdomestic

pur-chases'

5,155.65,519.15,815.15,937.26,274.06,615.77,030.17,348.47,675.06,017.16,425.76,490.56,565.86,648.86,757.46,854.86,983.57,100.17,181.97,258.47,320.27,397.37,417.87,513.27,644.37,736.57.806.3

Adden-dum:Gross

nationalproduct

5,062.65,452.85,764.95,932.46,255.56,563.56,931.97,246.7

6,016.66,390.56,458.66,516.56,587.16,691.96,781.06,888.36,987.07,071.47,146.87,202.4-7,293.47,344.37,426.67,537.57,598.9

1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,


REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198819891990199119921993199419951996'1991- IV1992- IV1993- I

IImIV

1994: InraIV

1995. inTTTIV

1996: InmTV'

drossdomesticproduct

5,862.96,060.46,138.76,079.06,244.46,386.46,608.76,742.96,907.4

6,104.46,327.36,326.46,356.56,393.46,469.16,508.56,587.66,644.96,693.9

6,701.06,713.56,776.46,780.76,814.36,892.66,928.46.994.4

Personalcon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

3,972.74,064.64,132.24,105.84,219.84,339.54,473.24,577.84,690.94,109.14,282.34,289.74,318.84,359.54,390.04,420.54,458.74,489.44,524.0

4,534.84,569.94,597.34,609.44,649.14,687.64,693.54.733.3

Gross privatedomestic investment

Nonresi-dentialfiled

invest^ment

566.0588.8585.2547.7557.9593.6652.1714.3766.8539.5569.1577.5586.4593.1617.6628.5639.56605679.7704.4710.5719.0723.3743.5750.5781.4791.8

Resi-dentialfixed

invest-ment

252.5243.2220.6193.4225.6242.7268.9262.8277.0202.4236.7

237.9234.8242.2255.8263.6271.6370.3270.3265.9256.5262.2266.3271.1281.5277.8277.6

Changein busi-

nessinven-tories

11.633.310.4

-3.07.3

19.158.933.113.721.45.8

18.520.819.517.440.574.564.556.1

54.530.533.014.6

-3.07.1

34.516.4

Exports and imports ofgoods and services

Netexports

-114.4-82.7-61.9

223295

-72.0105710761140

-17.9-40.0-56.0-64.4-86.2-81.5-99.3

-107.3-111.7- 104.3

-122.5-121.4-101.6-84.9

-104.0-114.7-137.4-100.0

Exports

465.8520.2564.4599.9639.4658.2712.0775.4825.8623.5649.1

647.1660.0645.5680.3677.6703.1719.6747.6752.3763.2783.0803.1806.7817.9816.1862.5

Imports

580.2603.0626.3622.2669.0730.2817.6883.0939.8641.4689.1

703.1724.4731.7761.8777.0810.4831.3851.9874.9884.6884.5888.0910.7932.6953.5962.5

Qovemment consumption expendituresand gross investment

Total

1,180.91,213.91,250.41,258.01,263.81,261.01,260.01,260.21,270.91,250.71,272.51,257.71,258.41,261.61,266.21,252.41,249.81,271.21,266.61,262.71,265.11,263.41,249.61,254.71,278.21,276.11.274.8

Federal

Total

524.6531.5541.9539.4528.0509.2489.8472.3467.3526.9534.0

516.1509.7505.9505.0489.9483.3496.7489.2

481.0479.4472.5456.2462.9473.4469.3463.4

Nationaldefense

405.5401.6401.5397.5375.8355.4337.0319.6313.9381.7376.8

361.6356.9351.6351.2334.8335.5346.2331.3325.0325.5319.1308.8311.9319.4314.9309.2

Non-defense

119.1130.1140.5142.0152.2153.8152.6152.3153.0145.3157.1

154.4152.7154.2153.7154.9147.8150.4157.5155.6153.5153.1147.0150.6153.7153.9153.7

andlocal

656.6682.6708.6718.7735.8751.8770.5788.6804.5723.8738.5

741.6748.8755.7761.3762.7766.8774.7777.7

782.2786.3791.5794.4792.6805.5807.7812.4

Finalsales ofdomesticproduct

5,855.16,028.76,126.76,082.66,237.46,365.56,550.76,708.96,892.56,083.86,320.76,307.16,334.56,371.36,449.26,467.76,514.96,582.16,638.1

6,647.46,682.46,741.46,764.26,815.26,884.76,892.76.977.4

Grossdomestic

pur-chases1

5,983.96,146.16,202.16,101.16,274.06,457.66,711.86,847.17,017.2

6,122.36,367.36,382.16,420.46,478.66,549.36,605.96,692.36,753.76,795.36,819.86,830.96,874.86,862.96,914.67,003.07,060.77.090.3

Adden-dum:Gross

nationalproduct

5,876.26,074.06,159.46,094.46,255.56,397.16,606.06,737.1

6,118.76,334.86,342.56,366.96,406.36,472.56,514.06,586.26,640.06,683.5

6,699.16,711.96,762.06,775.66,814.96,886.56,913.7

JGDP Jess exports of goods andNot*.—Beeaase of the fwrmuia used

mates for tfae (fetaited eetBpoaeata t&

phis imports of goods and services.eafei&&*g *ea* GBP, the chained (1992) dollar esti-ocM to the diained-dollar value of GDP or to any

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic .Analysis.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT[Index numbers, 1992-100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

198819891990199119921993199419951996'

1991: IV1992: IV

1993- InraW

1994- IninIV

1995: IuraIV

1996: InraIV ••

Grossdomesticproduct

86.189.793.697.3

100.0102.6104.9107.6109.7

98.3100.9

101.8102.4102.8103.4104.1104.6105.2105.8

106.7107.3107.9108.4

109.0109.5109.9110.3

Personal coasnmptionexpenditures

Total

84.388.492.996.8

100.0102.6105.1107.6109.898.0

101.1

101.8102.5102.8103.5104.1104.7105.5106.1106.7107.5107.8108.3

108.9109.6110.1110.8

Durablegoods

93.395.396.698.5

100.0101.3103.4104.6103.4

99.1100.2

100.51O1.1101.5101.9

102.4103.2103.9103.9

104.7104.8104.5104.3104.3103.6103.1102.6

Nondura-ble goods

84.889.394.698.1

100.0101.5102.8104.5107.198.7

100.7

101.3101.5101.3101.9

102.0102.4103.3103.6

103.9104.5104.7105.0106.0107.2107.2108.2

Services

82.286.691.295.8

100.0103.6106.7109.9112.7

97.4101.5

102.4103.3103.9104.7

105.6106.2107.1107.9

108.8109.7110.3110.9111.4112.3113.2114.0

Gross privatedomestic investment

Nonresi-dentialfixed

93.796.298.499.9

100.0100.9102.3103.4103.1

99.9100.1

100.5100.8101.0101.1

101.6102.2102.7102.7

102.7103.4103.8103.6

103.4103.1103.3102.8

Residen-tial fixed

92.195.197.898.8

100.0103.7107.0110.3112.1

98.9101.4

102.3103.6104.3104.7

105.7106.2107.4108.6

109.2109.9110.7111.3111.3111.6112.5112.9

Exports and imports ofgoods and services

Exports

96.097.998.7

100.3100.099.9

101.0104.1103.6

100.2100.0

ieo.0100.1100.099.8

100.2100.6101.3101.8

103.2104.5104.6104.2

104.1103.9103.5102.8

Imports

95.397.8

100.4100.0100.0

98.799.5

102.2101.5

99.7100.4

98.899.498.498.197.598.8

100.6100.9

101.1103.2102.5101.8101.7101.8101.2101.6

Government consumption expendituresand gross investment

Federal

Total

87.289.892.996.9

100.0102.6105.4109.4111.9

97.8100.2

101.8102.0103.0103.6104.4105.4105.5106.5

108.0108.9109.4111.3

112.0111.9112.0111.8

Nationaldefense

87.389.892.996.5

100.0102.1104.5108.1110.5

97.799.6

101.1101.6102.7102.9103.6104.1104.7105.5

106.9108.1-108.3109.2

110.3110.8110.8110.4

Non-defense

86.789.792.897.9

100.0104.0107.7112.3115.1

98.1101.6103.5103.1103.9105.5

106.3108.3107.4108.7

110.6110.9111.8116.0

116.0114.4114.8115.1

Stateandlocal

87.590.594.997.9

100.0102.1103.6106.7109.8

98.6100.9

101.6102.2102.3102.4

102.9103.2103.8104.5

105.6106.5107.1107.7

109.1109.2110.1110.9

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis-


QUANTITY AND PRICE INDEXES FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ANDPERCENT CHANGES

[Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

Index numbers, 1932=100

Currentdollars

Chain-typequantity

indexChain-typeprice index

Implicitprice

deflator

Percent change from preceding periodl

Currentdollars

Chain-typequantity

index

Chain-typepriceindex

Implicitprice

deflator

198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996'1992: IH ....

IV1993: I

IIIH ....IV

1994: IIIin ....IV

1995: IIIin ....IV

1996: IIIin ....IV' ...

51.956.362.567.070.875.180.987.192.094.8100.0104.9111.1116.2121.3100.4102.2103.2104.2105.3107.1108.5110.3112.0113.4114.5115.4117.1117.7118.9120.8122.0123.6

74.077.082.385.387.990.593.997.198.397.3100.0,102.3105.8108.0110.6100.3101.3101.3101.8102.4103.6104.2105,5106.4107.2107.3107.5108.5108.6109.1110.4111.0112.0

70.273.275.978.680.683.186.189.793.697.3100.0102.6105.0107.6109.9100.2100.9101.8102.4102.8103.4104.1104.6105.2105.8106.7107.3107.9108.4109.0109.6110.2110.7

70.173.175.978.480.683.186.189.793.697.3100.0102.6104.9107.6109.7100.2100.9101.8102.4102.8103.4104.1104.6105.2105.8106.7107.3107.9108.4109.0109.5109.9110.3

4.18.411.07.15.86.17.67.75.63.05.54.95.84.64.44.67.33.84.04.37.15.36.96.15.33.83.16.02.34.26.53.85.3

-2.14.06.83.73.02.93.83.41.3

-1.02.72.33.52.02.43.04.3-.11.92.34.82.54.93.53.0.4.73.8.32.04.72.13.9

6.34.23.83.42.63.13.74.24.43.92.82.62.32.52.11.52.83.82.21.82.32.91.92.42.13.32.42.12.12.32.22.01.8

6.34.23.93.32.73.13.74.24.34.02.72.62.32.52.01.52.93.82.11.92.22.81.92.52.23.42.42.12.02.21.81.71.4

1 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Quarterly percent changes are at annualrates.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Gross domestic productof nonfinaneial

corporate business(billions of dollars)

Currentdollar*!

Chained(1992)dollars

Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real output (dollars) *

Totalcost andprofit2

Consump-tion offixed

capital

Indirectbusinesstax.ete.3

Com-pensation

of em-

Corporate profits with inventoryvaluation and capital consumption

adjustments

Profitstax

liability

Profitsaftertax*

Netinterest

1987198819891990199119921993199419951993: I

IIHI ...IV....

1994: Inra ...IV....

1995: Inra ...rv....

1996: IIIm ...

2,589.62,805.22,950.93,084.03,132.13,262.63,437.53,689.43,885.83,344.23,407.33,459.73,538.73,601.73,663.03,709.53,783.23,803.33,841.93,924.83,973.24,011.64,081.64,143.1

2,967.03,122.13,175.43,212.53,168.83,262.63,380.03,567.73,692.33,302.93,356.73,399.23,461.13,503.93,553.03,577.73,636.33,634.13,656.13,719.93,759.13,779.23,831.03,888.8

0.873.898.929.960.988

1.0001.0171.0341.0521.0121.0151.0181.0221.0281.0311.0371.0401.0471.0511.0551.0571.0621.0651.065

0.100.101.106.110.116.115,115.116.115.116.115.116.114.122.114.114.113.114.115.115.115.115.115.115

0.083.084.088.092.100.103.105.106.109.105.105.105.107.106.106.107.106.108.110.108.108.107.105.105

0.578.591.614.640.660.673.679.682.697.682.679.679.675.680.681.684.686.696.698.696.699.702.706.706

0.076.082.075.072.070.077.088.102.104.079.085.089.098.092.103.105.108.100.100.109.108.111.113.114

0.031.033.031.030.027.028.031.036.038.028.031.029.034.035.036.037.039.039.038.038.037.039.039.038

0.044.050.044.042.043.049.057.066.066.050.055.059.065.058.067.068.070.061.062.071.070.072.074.076

0.035.039.046.046.042.032.029.027.027.031.030.029.028.027.027.028.027.028.028.027.027.026.027.027

1 Output is measured by ODP of nonfinaneial corporate business in chained (1992) dollars.2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinaneial corporate business

with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.

3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability phis business transfer payments less subsidies.4With,inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,Sources: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1990199119921993199419951996'1991- IV1992- IV

1993- IIIIV

1994. I ,nmrv

1995. ininIV

1996- IiiinIV'

Nationalincome

4,611.94,719.74,950.85,195.35,501.65,813.5

4,770.05,061.75,214.15,311.35,304.85,493.25,561.75,646.95(709.95,755.45,861.45,927.46,015.36,118.76,203.0

Compen-sation

ofemploy-

ees1

3,352.83,457.93,644.93,809.54,009.84,222.74,448.83,511.03,707.03,834.93,8?1.13,932.63,988.04,027.54,091.04,150.54,191.64,247.74,301.14,344.34,420.94,482.94.547.0

Proprietors' incomewith inventoiy vara--

ation and capital con-sumption adjustments

Farm

36.330.238.032.035.029.046.4

31.037.326.134.440.835.131.932.328.527.628.131.838.445.851.849.6

Nonfarm

324.6332.7371.5388.1415.9449.3471.9341.1385.1388.1400.5380.3419.3426.8437.1443.5447.1451.5454.9461.1469.4474.6482.4

Rentalincome

ofpersons

withcapital

consump-tion

adjust-ment

61.468.480.6

102:5116.6122.2126.873.092.3

104.1104.5101.1121.0122.2121.9120.6121.6;120.9125.8126.9124.5127.0128.6

Corporate profits with inventory valuation andcapita! consumption adjustments

Total

369.5382.5401.4464.4529.5586.6

379.6427.7469.6512.8459.7534.3553.1570.95GO.O562.3612.5611.8645.1655.8661.2

Profits with inventory valuationadjustment and without capital

consumption adjustment

Total

358.2378.2398.9457.7517.9570.8

375.2420.5465.9500.5471.6516.2534.3549.6542.6547.3597.9595.3624.8633.5637.6

Profitsbefore tax

371.7374.2406.4464.3531.2598.9

382.8420.3458.0

' 504.5475.5526.0550.8572.4594.5589.6607.2604.2642.2644.6635.6

Inventoiyvaluationadjust-ment

-13.54.0

-7.5-6.6

-13.3-28.1-8.6-7.6

•'-" .27.9

-4.0-3.9-9.8

-16.5-22.8-51.9-42.3-9.3-8.8

-17.4-11.0

2.0-8.1

Capitalconsump-

tionadjust-ment

11.34.32.56.7

11.615.923.14.57.23.8

12.3-11.8

18.118.821.317.415.014.616.520.422.323.626.4

Netinterest

467.3448.0414.3398.9394.9403.6

434.3412.4391.4388.0390.2395.5400.1393.8406.9405.2400.7401.9399.5402.3405.6

1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance;-(See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1990199119921993199419951996' _1991- IV1992- IV

1993- inIV

1994. IIIin . . . .rv

1995. IIIinIV

1996- IIImIV'

Totalpersona!

con-sumptionexpendi-

tures

4,132.24,105.84,219.84,339.54,473.24,577.84,690.94,109.14,282.34,359.54,390.04,420.54,458.74,489.44,524.0

4,534.84,569.94,597.34,609.4

4,649.14,687.64,693.54,733.3

Durable goods

Totaldurablegoods

493.3462.0488.5524.1562.0579.8611.1461.5505.0528.9541.9549.6555.4563.1579.8566.5576.2589.1587.5

599.2615.6611.6617.8

Motorvehicles

andparts

224.3193.2206.9218.6228.2221.1222.2194.6213.9219.1225.3230.3226.6226.5229.4216.3220.9226.4220.6

224.2225.9220.0218.7

Fur-nitureand

house-hold

equip-ment

173.5177.0189.4208.4230.1251.1275.7178.0196.4

211.0216.8219.0226.1232.6242.6243.1247.1254.1259.9

264.1276.0279.0283.7

Other

96.691.892.397.2

104.2109.8117.188.994.6

98.999.9

100.3103.0104.7108.8108.9109.9110.5109.9

113.9117.4116.9120.2

Nondurable goods

Totalnondura-

blegoods

1,316.11,302.91,321.81,348.81,390.51,421.91,441.71,295.71,339.81,354.01,359.91,372.91,383.91,397.01,408.11,416.61,422.91,424.71,423.2

1,436.11,440.91,442.21,447.4

Food

662.9659.6660.0674.3689.1702.1704.7656.5668.6675.7677.9682.3688.6690.5694.9700.5761.3703.6703.0709.2704.9701.6703.3

Clothingand

shoes

217.9215.9225.5233.3247.2257.2268.1213.1230.9235.0238.6241.1243.3249.0255.5254.6257.9258.8257.3262.5268.9271.0269.9

Gasolineand oil

107.3103.4106.6109.1110.4113.3113.5102.5107.3110.9109.3108.8109.5111.6111.6113.4113.6112.5113.7

112.6114.3113.4113.6

Fueloilandcoal

11.210.810.910.710.310.310.210.610.7

10.710.611.410.010.29.69.9

10.610.010.7

10.710.110.19.9

Other

316.7313.2318.8321.5333.5339.3345.9312.8322.3

321.8323.4329.3332.3335.8336.7338.4339.9340.0338.8

341.6343.5347.0351.5

Services

Totalservices1

2,321.32,341.02,409.42,466.72,521.42,577.02,639.12,352.02,437.62,476.72,488.52,498.52,519.92,530.02,537.32,552.52,571.6

- 2,584.62,599.3

2,614.72,632.32,640.62,668.7

Housing

627:2635.2646.8655.0668.2681.7693.0638.6650.6

655.9658.5662.1666.1670.7674.1677.4680.0683.2686.3

689.0691.6693.9

' 697.5

Medicalcare

602.8621.6646.6658.8668.8684.1698.9630.8652.2659.7661.4663.2667.6670.4674.2677.8681.3686.0691.2

691.1696.1699.7708.7

Retail satesof new pas-senger earsand lighttracks

{millions ofunite)

13.912.312.813.915.014:715.012.313.313.8

'14.6'15XJ14.8

'14.915.2

'14.914.4

'14.9'15.0

15.2'15.0'15.114.8

1 Includes other items, not shown separately.NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1993) dollar

estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to anyintermediate aggregates.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,


SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $19.4 billion (annual rate) in January, following an increase of $47.9 billion in December.Wages and salaries decreased $4.1 billion in January, following an increase of $41.6 billion in December. In January,a decline in private-sector average weekly hours more than offset increases in employment and in average hourlyearnings.

BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,400

800

4001989

im1990

I M I I I I I I I I

1991

TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME

\WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

\OTHER INCOME

-VTRANSFER PAYMENTS

1992 1993

M i l l1994 1995

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

MOO

800

I I I t 1 I H I I I

* SEASONAILT ADJUSIH} A^NUAL RA1ESSOURCE 0&*jrM&U Of COMWSICE

1996i M I I I M I M 400

1997

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVBStS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996'1996: Jan

PebMar

May

July . ..Aufif >SeptOct'Novr

Decr

1997- Jan'

Totalpersonalincome

3,877.34,172.84,489.34,791.64,968.55,264.25,480.15,753.16,115.16,452.46,270.16,315.26,340.16,371.56,405.26,460.36,463.16,502.56,538.76,543.66,585.26,633.16,652.5

Wage andsalary

disburse-ments1

2,272.72,453.62,598.12,757.52,827.62,986.43,090.73,241.83,430.63,630.43,508.13,546.03,560.63,579.13,597.23,643.13,630.83,660.93,687.23,682.43,713.63,755.23,751.1

Other laborincome12

235.4251.7273.1300.6322.7351.3380.9402.2424.0436.2427.4429.1430.8432.4434.0435.6437.1438.6440.1441.5442.9444.3445.1

Proprietors' income3

Farm

32.328.236.836.330.238.032.035.029.046.436.238.840.143.246.248.050.052.253.151.249.548.247.2

Nonfarm

260.6294.7308.2324.6332.7371.5388.1415.9449.3471.9457.0461.3465.1467.3469.9471.0472.7473.7477.3479.9482.6484.7486.9

Rentalincome

ofpersons4

45.555.752.461.468.480.6

102.5116.6122.2126.8129.1126.7125.0124.1124.8124.6126.3126.6128.0128.8128.6128.5130.0

Personaldividendincome

101.1109.9130.9142.9153.6159.4186.8199.6214.8230.6225.3226.5227.9228.7229.4229.9230.8231.5232.3233.3234.7236.5238.2

Personalinterestincome

560.0595.5674.5704.4699.2667.2648.1663.7717.1738.0728.4725.6724.3728.1733.6737.5740.6743.0745.1747.4749.8752.5754.9

Transferpayments*

543.3577.6626.0687.8769.9858.2910.7956.3

1,022.61,079.81,057.41,062.51,069.01,072.51,075.41,078.91,082.51,085.61,087.31,090.21,096.61,099.21,117.0

Less: Per-sonal con-tributionsfor socialinsurance

173.7194.2210.8223.9235.8248.4259.6278.1294.5307.5298.9301.5302.7303.9305.2308.4307.7309.8311.7311.0313.2316.0317.9

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensa-tion of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance andthe excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.

2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.

3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,4 With capital consumption adjustment.5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payment*.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEAccording to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars rose at an annualrate of 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 1996.

BIUJONS OF DOLLARS' |RAnO SCALE) BIUJONS OF DOLLARS' [RATIO SCALE!

DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)

I I I 2,000

DOUARS' (RATO SCALE)22,00020,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME ,

CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS _

—

1982

r--"

^

i i i1983

^ """

i } i1984

-X-—

l i l

1985

• _

! 1 1

1986

\^. — — — -r — — — 1-

=J r 1

1 1 11987

CURRENT DOUARS

1988i i i1989

< i i

1990

•"" ~ ~ -

1991

*

1 1 !

1992

r • — " 1

i i t1993

r^~^~

i i i1994

i 'i i1995

-_— —

i i t1996

22,00020,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

OOUNOL OF ECONOMIC ADVKBtS

Period

1989 .. ..1990199119921993199419951996 r

1991: IV1992: IV1993: I

ninrv

1994: IninIV

1995: InfflIV

1996: Inmrv'

Personalincome

Less:Personaltax andnontax

payments

Equals:Disposablepersonalincome

Less:Personaloutlays1

Equals:Personalsaving

Billions of dollars

4,489.34,791.64,968.55,264.25,480.15,753.16,115.16,452.4

594.9624.8624.8650.5689.9731.4794.3863.9

3,894.54,166.84,343.74,613.74,790.25,021.75,320.85,588.5

3,706.73,958.14,097.44,341.04,575.84,832.35,071.55,314.5

187.8208.7246.4272.6214.4189.4249.3273.9

Dispos-able

personalincome inbillions of

chained(1992)dollars

4,403.74,484.64,486.44,613.74,666.94,778.24,945.85,088.2

Per capitadisposable personal

income

Currentdollars


Per capita personalconsumptionexpenditures

Currentdollars


Dollars

15,74216,67017,19118,06218,55519,26420,22421,050

17,80117,94117,75618,06218,07818,33018,79919,166

14,53115,36015,73216,52017,25318,03318,71919,406

16,43016,53216,24916,52016,80917,15917,40017,669

Percentchangein real

per capitadisposablepersonalincome

Saving aspercent ofdisposablepersonalincome

Percent

1.0.8

-1.01.7.1

1.42.62.0

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

5,048.95,415.35,349.15,459.25,501.65,610.55,562.45,739.15,808.25,902.76,004.56,074.46,146.96,234.56,308.56,412.46,501.46,587.3

632.5674.8662.4686.96964713.8705.5740.8731.3748.1770.0801.5798.4807.2824.9870.6872.5887.6

4,416.44,740.54,686.74,772.34,805 24,896.74,856.84,998.35,076.95,154.65,234.55,272.95,348.55,427.35,483.55,541.85,628.95,699.7

4,149.84,450.04,489.24,545.54,602.24,666.34,728.04,796.14,870.84,934.24,980.35,054.45,106.65,144.75,218.15,300.75,329.85,409.5

266.6290.5197.4226.8202.9230.5128.8202.2206.2220.4254.2218.5241.9282.6265.4241.1299.1290.2

4,506.34,688.74,603.04,658.04,674.84,731.74,666.54,776.04,810.24,859.94,903.84,907.14,959.55,012.95,037.65,054.55,114.65,145.9

17,40518,47818,22518,51318,58918,89218,69919,20019,45219,70019,96520,06820,30620,55520,72720,90021,17721,395

17,75918,27717,90018,06918,08418,25617,96618,34618,43018,57418,70418,67618,82918,98619,04119,06319,24219,316

15,87116,87716,98417,16417,33517,52817,71417,92418,15418,33818,46318,68918,82318,90119,12819,38319,43319,679

16,19416,69216,68116,75416,86416,93717,01917,12717,20017,29017,29617,39317,45417,45817,57317,67917,65717,767

-8.03.8.3

3.9-6.2

8.71.83.22.8-.63.33.41.2.5

3.81.5

4.85.05.75.94.53.84.74.9

6.06.14.24.84.24.72.74.04.14.34.94.14.55.24.84.35.35.1

Population,includingArmedForces

overseas(thou-

sands) =

247,387249,956252,680255,432258,159260,681263,090265,482

253,743256,543257,155257,787258,501259,192259,738260,327261,004261,653262,181262,748263,399264,032264,563265,155265,806266,405

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and peraonal transferpayments to rest of the world (net).

2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).


FARM INCOMEIn the second quarter of 1996, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $12.3 billion (annualrate) and net farm income rose $5.1 billion.

BIUJONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)280240

200

160

280

160

60

4

V p

1i »

I "\ '\_j

1982

^"^

\

' R J> in1 Ml1 | if

•l

i i i1983

y-

K i"\1 \/1

1 1 1

1984

N_^\xv ^—/T^^1

r 1u

/i**v/

1 ' *1985

*UbSrAt

'\ /l\ 1

k ' \'1» '

1986

\

\J

i i i1987

tt

^ y

\/\

"" ~~^~

'-/

NET FARM INCO/v

i i i

1988

1 1 1

1989

~^~-^

\ /

€

i i i

1990

' "

,

N>

i t i

1991

r^~^>

i i i

1992

, , -*

x^ /\'.

i i i

1993

p. •

\ x*

> i t1994

j. ~^>

\A'

.1995

c

s1

i i t1996

• SEASONAUY AQJUSIH) HUM HA1ES

120

80

60

20

10

COUNdlOf ECONOMIC ADVBBB

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951994- I

II ... .. ..IllIV ...

1995- IIIIIIIV

1996- IPHP ...

Income of farm operators from farming

Gross farm income

Total1

168.4177.9191.9198.2191.9200.6204.2215.8210.4221.2208.6214.1219.4208.3206.4218.5208.4233.1245.4

Cash marketing receipts

Total

141.8151.2160.8169.5167.9171.3177.6180.8185.8179.9170.8186.9185.5180.6181.0199.8181.5193.5209.5

Livestock andproducts

76.079.683.989.285.885.690.288.186.892.182.997.779.983.281.696.186.585.389.7

Crops

65.871.676.980.382.185.787.592.698.987.988.089.2

105.597.499.4

103.795.1

108.2119.8

Value ofinventorychanges2

-23-4.1

3.83.3-.24.2

-4.58.2

-3.410.29.67.35.8

-4.1-3.9-3.0-2.4

6.46.1

Productionexpenses

131.0139.9146.7153.4153.3152.5160.5167.4175.6164.5166.8168.8169.6172.4175.4177.5177.0178.4185.6

Net farmincome

37.438.045.344.838.548.043.648.434.856.741.845.349.835.930.941.031.454.759.8

1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cashincome, and nonmoney income furnished by farms,

2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at aver-age prices during the year.

NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1993 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to

annual data in table.Sources: Department of Agriculture.


CORPORATE PROFITSIn the third quarter of 1996, corporate profits before tax fell $9.0 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax fell$5.9 billion.

BIlUONSOf DOUARS BILUONS OF DOUARS

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

SEASONAU.Y AOJUSTH3 ANNUAL RATES

A./

\ JPROFTTS BEFORE TAX ./\ f

s-

^

1

- r\^—^

~ — _

-—.

i i (1982

SOUKfcDB*

7,'

S ^.~-'f

< ( t

1983

UTTMENTOFC

V.

— N.

1 1 f

1984

XMMERCE

. x->

--->

( I 1

1985

^~/

V.-.-.'

v ,

1986

^'

*•"

,.-'

/' UNI

1987

S

PRC

».-•''"

KasTRBur

1988

r\ /^

MfrTSAFTE

's..—

V j

DPROfil

1989

RTAXs—~~

TAXI

^'

>

t I I

1990

r —

"•*•-'

1ABIUTY\

""*—'*

I I 1

1991

V

'V

' \'' \ f

\ f•r ,

\ \ 1

1992

/

^s

S"-*

f\

i l l

1993

J

S

S

V

^

^

/

1 I 1

1994

GOUN3

r

,--*•'

~.^-

i t i1995

LOFKXMQA

Pn-------

'" —

/-.*---

1996

mCAWEBB

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

ISO

100

50

0


Period

198819891990199119921993199419951996P1991: IV1992: IV

1993: IIImIV

1994- IHIIIIV

1995- IIImIV

1996- IIIinWe

Profits (before tax) with inventoiy valuation adjustment l

Total 2

325.0330.6358.2378.2398.9457.7517.9570.8

375.2420.5422.4442.0465.9500.5

471.6516.2534.3549.6

542.6547.3597.9595.3

624.8633.5637.6

Domestic industries

Total

274.3272.6292.5309.5334.0388.1453.7494.1

303.6361.2347.0375.7393.1436.8

407.0452.4469.9485.5

467.5468.2527.1513.7

541.6555.1561.0

Finan-cial

43.053.168.687.483.791.094.4

119.1

87.683.1

85.788.188.8

101.3

64.997.8

108.4106.4

114.3112.6130.4119.3

134.9136.6135.0

Nonfinancial

Totals

231.2219.6223.8222.1250.3297.2359.3375.0

216.1278.1

261.2287.6304.3335.4

342.1354.6361.5379.0

353.2355.6396.7394.4

406.7418.5426.1

Manufac-turing

115.1109.3112.3

92.796.3

109.7142.7145.7

83.8105.1

90.4108.4106.0134.0

145.3134.2142.8148.4

134.7137.8153.2157.3

161.3164.7170.6

Whole-sale

19.320.417.220.623.025.534.529.6

17.028.3

17.928.627.028.7

28.839.534.335.4

29.726.431.231.2

37.532.834.5

Retail

19.620.720.626.132.239.242.238.7

28.637.3

36.338.142.439.8

38.343.243.743.6

36.036.642.539.6

41.744.344.5

Profitsbefore

tax

354.3348.1371.7374.2406.4464.3531.2598.9

382.8420.3437.0457.6458.0504.5

475.5526.0550.8572.4

594.5589.6607.2604.2

642.2644.6635.6

Taxliability

137.0141.3140.5133.4143.0163.8195.3218.7

135.2149.7

151.5162.6159.3181.7

171.4192.8203.4213.5

217.3214.2224.5218.7

233.4236.4233.4

Profits after tax

Total

217.3206.8231.2240.8263.4300.5335.9380.2

247.6270.6

285.6295.0298.6322.8

304.1333.3347.4358.8

377.2375.3382.8385.5

408.8408.1402.2

Dividends

116.8138.9151.9163.1169.5197.3211.0227.4244.2165.3180.4

190.2195.8200.2202.9

204.4208.8212.5218.5

221.7224.6228.5234.7

239.9243.1245.2248.7

Undis-tributedprofits

100.567.979.477.793.9

103.2124.8152.8

82.290.3

95.399.298.4

119.9

99.7124.5134.9140.3

155.5150.8154.3150.8

168.9165.1156.9

Inventoryvaluationadjust-ment

-29.3-17.5-13.5

4.0-7.5-6.6

-13.3-28.1'-8.6

-7.6' .2

-14.6-15.6

7.9-4.0

-3.9-9.8

-16.5-22.8

-51.9-42.3-9.3-8.8

-17.4-11.0

2.0'-8.1

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.z Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.

3 Includes industries not shown separately.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTIn the fourth quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992)dollars rose $104 billion (annual rate) and residential Investment fell $0.2 billion. There was an increase of $16.4billion in inventories following an increase of $34.5 billion in the third quarter.

BIUIONS Of CHAINED (1992) OCULARS BIUJONS OF CHAINS) 11992) DOUARS

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

5£A5ON4UY,AflJUSTH>>U*JU4iR«ES

^^

1

, /•x

•x •*»»

— .~,-^

f \\

i i i1982

y

/•> __ *

__..s*

tf

f*

1 1 1

1983

f

^ "**s

* ™* "* N

i i i

1984

r — '

" •—* • *

1 1 11985

|X_yw-<~ r\

x*~?'

*"\\

v -.

I I l

1986

1 \ 1 1 KGROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC

_ < • — •

INVES1

,~ — ~

RESIDENTLFIXED INVEST/

CHAM

,^ '*

t i i

1987

, \,

5EINBU.VENTORI

i t i

1988

MENT

"\

F

MItfNT

— .-

INESS

i t i

1989

•\--IONRESICKEDINVE

•^.^

_'\

V

1 f 1

1990

+~/~

STMENT

^ *

"

1991

y -

,_.— •

i i i1992

f/

~.~-'

i i i1993

r

^

*" •*

f —

1 I 1

1994

f^^*—

_„_

^

" — %X

1995

S

s~*• "*

>•»

1996

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

SOURCE DBWOMENr Of COMMHCE COUNCl Of ECONOMIC ADMSHS

[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19881989 .,199019911992 . . .19931Q<U1995IMfir

1991- TV1992: IV

19Q3. TnmIV

1994- InmIV

1995- In . ..inIV

199fi- TninTV'

Grossprivate

domesticinvestment

826.0861.9817.3737.7790.4857.3979.6

1,010.21,057.0

762.4812.4

834.8843.2857.6893.5

933.6984.8994.2

1,005.9

1,023.7996.8

1,015.21,004.9

1,011.91,038.61,093.41,084.3

Fixed investment

Total

818.3832.0805.8741.3783.4836.4921.1975.9

1,042.3

742.0805.8

815.4821.1835.4873.5

892.4911.4930.8949.7

969.5965.7980.0988.5

1,013.31,031.11,057.51,067.5

Nonresidential

Total

566.0588.8585.2547.7557.9593.6

: 652.1714.3766.8

539.5569.1

577.5586.4593.1617.6

628.5639.5660.5679.7

704.4710.5719.0723.3

743.5750.5781.4791.8

Structures

196.8201.2203.3181.6169.2166.3168.8181.1189.9

171.4165.6

167.0164.8165.1168.2

163.0169.0169.1174.3

178.5180.0182.8183.2

186.6184.9188.6199.5

Producers'durable

equipment

369.2387.6381.9366.2388.7427.6484.1534.5578.7

368.1403.5

410.5421.7428.2449.8

466.4471.1492.5506.5

527.2531.7537.4541.4

558.3567.5595.0593.8

Residential

252.5243.2220.6193.4225.6242.7268.9262.8277.0

202.4236.7

•• 237.9234.8242.2255.8

263.6271.6270.3270.3

265.9256.5262.2266.3

271.1281.5277.8277.6

Change in businessinventories

Total

11.633.310.4

-3.07.3

19.158.933.113.7

21.45.8

18.520.819.517.4

40.574.564.556.1

54.530.533.014.6

-3.07.1

34.516.4

Nonfarm

24.733.57.8

-1.21.9

26.446.837.216.9

19.97.2

26.026.730.922.1

29.754.050.553.0

57.433.738.619.0

2.911.734.618.4

NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type.Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates

for the detailed components do not odd to the ehained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermedi-

ate aggregates.



REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198819891990199119921993199419951996'

1991: IV1992: IV1993: In

mIV

1994: InmIV

1995' InmIV .'

1996: InmIV'

Nonresidential

Totalnonresi-deutial

566.0588.8585.2547.7557.9593.6652.1714.3766.8

539.5569.1577.5586.4593.1617.6628.5639.5660.5679.7704.4710.5719.0723.3743.5750.5781.4791.8

Structures

Total'

196.8201.2203.3181.6169.2166.3168.8181.1189.9

171.4165.6167.0164.8165.1168.2163.0169.0169.1174.3178.5180.0182.8183.2186.6184.9188.6199.5

Non-resi-

dentialbuild-ings,

includ-ing

farm

145.3150.2152.0126.9113.2112.8117.7127.9134.5

116.4109.8111.4110.6112.7116.3112.4117.8117.4123.3125.4126.8129.2130.3131.4129.7133.0143.8

Utili-ties

30.030.928.132.034.531.131.735.136.5

33.333.932.431.030.730.530.731.232.132.733.734.835.836.036.436.836.436.6

Miningexplo-ration,shafts,

andwells

15.813.916.115.713.314.812.611.213.0

14.413.715.215.214.614.213.413.312.211.512.510.711.010.512.812.913.512.6

Producers' durable equipment

Total'

369.2387.6381.9366.2388.7427.6484.1534.5578.7

368.1403.5410.5421.7428.2449.8466.4471.1492.5506.5527.2531.7537.4541.4558.3567.5595.0593.8

Information processingand related equipment

Total

106.6116.2116.2117.8134.2147.1170.4201.1241.9

122.5138.9139.5142.2150.7156.0161.2166.6171.6182.4189.1199.7201.4214.4225.5234.1250.5257.5

Com-puters

andpe-

riph-eral

equip-ment2

24.029.429.432.443.956.269.391.5

132.7

36.647.551.152.958.362.564.567.169.376.380.288.291.9

105.6117.2126.3138.9148.4

Other

85.788.188.285.990.291.5

102.6114.2122.1

86.291.588.689.693.194.697.8

100.8103.6108.3111.5115.1114.0116.2118.1119.7125.5125.2

In-dus-trial

equip-ment

95.3101.595.088.389.396.3

105.9116.2118.3

86.492.693.794.496.3

100.7102.8104.3107.0109.4114.2118.4116.6115.4117.8120.6118.0116.8

Trans-porta-tionand

relatedequip-ment

87.178.981.281.786.297.5

111.7118.1120.1

81.691.593.099.595.0

102.7109.0105.3115.8116.6121.9114.9120.3115.4117.5114.9126.5121.6

Residential

Totalresi-den-tial3

252.5243.2220.6193.4225.6242.7268.9262.8277.0

202.4236.7237^9234.8242.2255.8263.6271.6270.3270.3265.9256.5262.2266.3271.1281.5277.8277.6

Structures

Total

246.3237.0214.5187.6219.5236.3262.1255.8269.9

196.6230.5231.7228.5235.7249.2257.0264.8263.5263.2258.9249.6255.3259.3264.1274.3270.6270.4

Singlefamily

126.1121.9110.496.4

116.5127.1140.5127.7135.5105.1121.6

• 124.9122.5126.3134.4140.3143.5140.8137.4133.0123.0125.8129.1132.5137.6136.7135.3

Multi-family

23.423.319.715.413.110.413.517.619.4

14.211.5W.310.010.710.611.212.814.51,5.616.817.417.818.519.221.017.919.5

Other

96.891.884.475.789.998.8

108.1110.9115.5

77.397.496.596.098.7

104.1105.4108.4108.2110.4109.3109.8112.2112.4113.0116.3116.6116.2

1 Includes other items, not shown separately.2 Includes new computers and peripheral equipment only.3 Includes producers' durable equipment, not shown separately.

NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDI', the chained (1992) dollarestimates for the detailed components do not adtl to the chained-dollar value of GDI1 or to anyintermediate aggregates.


BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND PLANS[Bfflions of dollars]

Period

1993'

1994 2

1995 3

1996 4

Totalex-

pendi-tures "

489.7

549.9

594.5

603.4

By industry

Total

488.2

547.8591.7

600.7

Miningandcon-

struc-tion

31.2

36.136.0

33.6

Manufacturing

Total

134.1

153.3

172.3

184.8

Dura-ble

goods

66.4

78.991.4

100.2

Non-durablegoods

67.7

74.4

80.9

84.6

Trans-porta-tion

30.6

33.337.0

35.2

Com-muni-cations

37.141.5

46.0

46.3

Utili-ties

41.3

42.242.8

40.6

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

60.3

68.975.1

71.9

Pi-nance,insur-ance,andreal

estate

40.2

46.8

57.3

57.7

Serv-ices

111.8

123.5

123.7

129.4

Servingmul-tiple

indus-tries

1.7

2.2

1.5

1.3

Notdistrib-

utedby

indus-try

1.4

2.2

2.8

2.7

1 Estimates collected from the 1993 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. NOTE.—Data for 1994-1996 from Business Investment and Plans released March 28, 1996.a Revised estimates collected from the 1994 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. Final data Data for 1993 from Annual Capital Expenditure*: 1993.

are scheduled for release in summer 1996. The Business Investment and Hans release haa been discontinued effective with release of3 Revised estimates collected from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey. Final data will the March 1996 survey estimates. Estimates of business investment and plans will be available

be available upon release of the 1995 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.* Estimates of planned capital expenditures from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey.

annually with release of the Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

10


EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCEIn January, after adjusting for the effect of revised population controls, employment rose by 433,000 and unemploy-ment rose by 75,000.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

138

MILLIONS OF PERSONS *

138

1996 1997


[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

Period

1987198819891990 3

1991 .. .199219931994*19951996

1996- Jan .PebMar

May

July

SeptOct

Dec1997' Jan3

Civiliannoninstita-

tionalpopulation

NSA

182,753184,613186,393189,164190,925192,805194,838196,814198,584200,591

199,634199,772199,921200,101200,278200,459200,641200,847201,060201,273201,463201,636202,285

Civilianlaborforce

119,865121,669123,869125,840126,346128,105129,200131,056132,304133,943

132,899133,070133,464133,427133,759133,709134,165133,898134,291134,636134,831135,022

135,848

Civilian employment

Total

112,440114,968117,342118,793117,718118,492120,259123,060124,900126,708

125,311125,706126,062126,125126,428126,590126,889126,988127,248127,617127,644127,855128,580

Agricul-tural

3,2083,1693,1993,2233,2693,2473,1153,4093,4403,443

3,4983,4993,4703,4123,4743,4083,4703,4183,4803,4503,3543,4263,468

Nonagricultural

Total

109,232111,800114,142115,570114,449115,245117,144119,651121,460123,264

121,813122,207122,592122,713122,954123,182123,419123,570123,768124,167124,290124,429125,112

Part timefor

economicreasons1

5,1224,9654,6574,9505,8746,2406,2304,4144,2794,123

3,9404,2244,2244,2514,1094,1614,1504,1824,1304,1183,8154,162

4,163

Unemployment

Total

7,4256,7016,5287,0478,6289,6138,9407,9967,4047,236

7,5887,3647,4027,3027,3317,1197,2766,9107,0437,0197,1877,1677,268

15weeksandover

1,9831,6101,3751,5252,3573,4083,0942,8602,3632,316

2,3692,3222,4062,3872,3542,3532,3262,2732,2772,2942,1842,1792,155

Not inlaborforce

62,88862,94462,52363,32464,57864,70065,63865,75866,28066,647

66,73566,70366,45766,67466,51966,75066,47666,94966,77066,63766,63266,61466,437

Percent2

Laborforce

partici-pationrate

65.665.966.566.566.266.466.366.666.666.8

66.666.666.866.766.866.766.966.766.866.966.967.067.2

Employ-ment/pop-

ulationratio

61.562.363.062.861.761.561.762.562.963.2

62.862.963.163.063.163.263.263.263.363.463.463.463.6

Unem-ploy-mentrate

6.25.55.35.66.87.56.96.15.65.4

5.75.55.55.55.55.35.45.25.25.25.35.35.4

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to findfulIUrae work, etc.

4 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods be-cause of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire.

2 Chilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and ^ NOTE.—Data beginning January 1997 reflect revised population controls. See Employmentunemployment as percent of Chilian labor force.

3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data.and Earnings, February 1997, for details.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11


SELECTED UNEMPLOtJ&f RATESIn January, the unemployment rate rose to 5.4 percent, from 5.3 percent in December.

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

10

25

20

15

10

TEENAGERS .(16-19)

MEN 20 YEARSAND OVER

1993 1997 1993

VWOMEN 20 YEARS

AND OVER

1994

mull1995 1996 1997

•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19871988198919901991199219931994 2

199519961996: Jan

PebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptGet

Dec1997- Jan

Unemployment rate (percent of Chilian labor force in group)

ABcivilianworkers

6.25.55.35.66.87.56.96.15.65.4

5.75.55.55.55.55.35.45.25.25.25.35.35.4

By sex and age

Men20 yearsand over

5.44.84.55.06.47.16.45.44.84.64.94.84.94.84.74.64.64.24.54.44.44.44.6

Women20 yearsand over

5.44.94.74.95.76.35.95.44.94.8

5.14.84.84.74.94.74.94.74.64.74.84.94.6

Bothsexes16-19years

16.915.315.015.518.720.119.017.617.316.7

17.817.017.116.816.616.216.717.016.016.316.816.517.0

By race

White

5.34.74.54.86.16.66.15.34.94.75.04.84.84.84.84.64.74.54.54.54.64.64.6

Blackand

other

11.610.410.010.111.112.711.710.59.69.3

9.59.39.69.49.39.19.38.99.29.39.19.29.4

Black

13.011.711.411.412.514.213.011.510.410.5

10.610.310.810.510.310.210.510.410.710.710.610.510.8

By selected groups

Expe-riencedwageand

salaryworkers

5.85.25.05.36.67.26.65.95.45.2

5.45.35.45.35.45.15.25.05.15.05.25.15.1

Marriedmen,

spousepresent

3.93.33.03.44.45.14.43.73.33.0

3.23.13.13.03.03.03.02.93.03.03.03.02.8

Womenwho

maintainfamilies

9.28.18.18.39.3

10.09.78.98.08.28.27.67.77.38.57.88.88.58.38.58.88.49.1

Full-timeworkers1

6.05.35.15.46.87.56.96.15.55.35.65.45.55.45.45.25.35.05.15.15.35.25.2

Part-timeworkers 1

6.96.46.26.47.07.57.26.06.05.86.06.06.05.95.95.66.05.95.65.65.65.85.7

1 Kevised definition; for details, see Employment and Earning^ February 1994.2 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods.NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over.


12


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCEPROGRAMSIn January, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 27weeks and over rose; the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 15-26 weeks fell. The mean duration of unemploymentrose to 16.0 weeks and the median duration fell to 7.7 weeks.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION

70

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION •'

TO

50

40

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

JOB LOSERS-1'

1993

REENTRANTS

JOB LEAVERS

NEW ENTRANTS

M 111! Itll1994

M i nil I n 1 1 1 1 1 n1995 1996

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED3J BEGINNING JANUARY 1994, JO» LOSERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPtETED TEMPORARY JOBS.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally actuated, except as noted]

Period

198719881989199019911992199319943

199519961996- Jan

FebMar

July

SeptOctNovDec

1997: Jan

Un-employ-

ment(thou-sands)

7,4256,7016,5287,0478,6289,6138,9407,9967,4047,236

7,5887,3647,4027,3027,3317,1197,2766,9107,0437,0197,1877,167

7,268

Duration of unemployment

Percent distribution

Lessthan

5weeks

43.746.048.646.340.335.136.534.136.536.4

36.937.235.834.237.135.836.036.235.835.938.937.139.0

5-14weeks

29.630.030.332.032.429.428.930.131.631.631.531.231.432.531.131.031.931.431.931.831.032.7

31.0

15-26weeks

12.712.011.211.714.415.114.515.514.614.614.814.915.015.314.114.813.714.314.814.914.013.513.1

27weeksandover

14.012.19.9

10.012.920.320.120.317.317.416.716.717.818.017.618.318.418.117.617.316.116.716.9

Number of weeks

Aver-age

(mean)

14.513.511.912.013.717.718.018.816.616.716.216.617.217.316.917.216.917.216.916.716.015.816.0

Median

6.55.94.85.36.88.78.39.28.38.38.28.18.28.68.48.18.58.58.68.37.77.87.7

Reason for unemployment:percent distribution

Joblos-ers1

48.046.145.748.154.456.154.247.746.946.647.747.947.348.346.448.046.444.946.045.145.344.444.8

Jobleav-ers

13.014.715.714.811.610.410.99.9

11.110.7

11.110.110.59.99.49.9

10.511.211.411.311.511.7

12.3

Reen-trants

26.627.028.227.424.823.824.634.834.134.733.033.834.234.036.834.435.035.834.735.435.135.334.6

Newen-

trants

12.412.210.49.89.29.7

10.37.67.88.08.28.28.07.87.47.78.28.07.98.28.18.68.3

Stateprograms

Insuredunem-ploy-ment

Initialclaims

Weekly average,

2,3002,0812,1582,5223,3423,2452,7512,6702,5752,594

'2,642'2,652'2,639'2,584'2,554'2,573'2,535'2,524'2,468'2,470'2,444'2,5182,453

328310330388447408341340357356

'371'369'389356

'349'355'334'325'335'334'338355334

Insuredunem-

allregular

programs(unatljust-

ed)2

thousands

2,3692,1352,2052,5753,4063,3482,8452,7392,6362,6493,4993,3333,1612,9342,3522,3832,5502,2542,1842,0462,104

'2,7403,502

1 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs.2 Includes State (50 Stoles, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-serv-

icemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 1993. Alao in-cludes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplementalcompensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs.

3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with daU for earlier periods.

NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years of age and over (except for insured unemploy-ment and initial claims).

Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment and initial claims data revised beginning 19&4.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Ad-ministration).

13


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 271,000 in January.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

130

100

90

80

40

ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS

SERVICE-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

—

1' 1993

GOC)DS-PRODUC NGINDUSTRIES

I l l l l l l l l l l

1994

\Illllllllll

1995

Illllllllll

1996

—

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 11997 ^

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

34

34

32

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

1620

18

6

4

SERVICES

RETAIL TRADE

MANUFACTURING

CONSTRUCTION

inn inn Illllllllll Illllllllll1993


[Thousands of wage and salary workers;J seasonally adjusted]

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996 r

1996- JanFeb

July

SeptOctNovr

Decr

1997- Jan''

Totalnonagri-culturalemploy-

ment

101,958105,210107,895109,419108,256108,604110,730114,172117,203119,557118,070118,579118,750118,922119,332119,537119,772120,052120,050120,311120,492120,753121,024

Goods-producing industries

Total2

24,67425,12525,25424,90523,74523,23123,35223,90824,20624,25924,11224,25424,19624,20924,26324,27424,26424,29824,25724,28424,31924,35924,391

Con-struc-tion

4,9585,0985,1715,1204,6504,4924,6684,986

,5,1585,4065,2345,3495,3415,3535,3845,4015,4275,4375,4495,4645,4915,5195,533

Manufacturing

Total

18,99919,31419,39119,07618,40618,10418,07518,32118,46818,28318,30918,33218,28118,28318,30318,29818,26718,29118,24118,25418,26218,27618,294

Durablegoods

11,15411,36311,39411,10910,56910,27710,22110,44810,65410,67610,64310,65910,62310,65410,67910,«9610,68010,71110,67510,68410,69410,71110,727

Non-durablegoods

7,8457,9517,9977,9687,8377,8277,8547,8737,8147,6067,6667,6737,6587,6297,6247,6027,5877,5807,5667,5707,5687,5657,567

Service-producing industries

Total

77,28480,08682,64284,51484,51185,37387,37890,26492,99795,29893,95894,32594,55494,71395,06995,26395,50895,75495,79396,02796,17396,39496,633

Trans-

tion andpublic

utilities

5,3625,5145,6255,7935,7625,7215,8295,9936,1656,3166,2546,2706,2926,2946,3096,3296,3336,3426,3376,3386,3506,3416,357

Whole-sale

trade

5,8486,0306,1876,1736,0815,9975,981«,1626,4126,5876,5126,5296,5486,5506,5676,5756,5856,6036,6196,6436,6516,6556,662

Retailtrade

18,42219,02319,47519,60119,28419,35619,77320,50721,17321,59721,26821,34021,35021,41521,48521,56821,67121,67221,70221,80321,85721,93021,949

Finance,insur-ance,

and realestate

6,5336,6306,6686,7096,6466,6026,7576,8966,8306,9776,8946,9196,9316,9426,9646,9676,9876,9997,0097,0267,0387,0547,063

Services

24,11025,50426,90727,93428,33629,05230,19731,57933,10734,36033,69433,90234,03934,11734,28534,37834,44834,53234,60734,70934,78034,88035,047

Government

Total

17,01017,38617,77918,30418,40218,64518,84119,12819,31019,46219,33619,36519,39419,39519,45919,44619,48419,60619,51919,50819,49719,53419,555

Federal

2,9432,9712,9883,0852,9662,9692,9152,8702,8222,7572,7832,7802,7802,7762,7762,7562,7522,7392,7392,7312,7332,7292,726

1 Includes all fall- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricnluiral establishmentswho received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludesproprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Totalin this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieultural employment of the civilian laborforce, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes,bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from

employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one jobare counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, wherepersons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.

2 Includes mining:, not shown separately.Not*-.—Data for March 1996-August 1996 were revised in October 1996 to reflect revised

seasonal adjustment factors..Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

14


AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGHICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996J-1996- Jan

FebMarAprMay

Jnly

SeptOctNov'Dec'

1997- JanP

Average weekly hount

Totalprivate

nonagri-cultural 1

34.834.734.634.534.334.434.534.734.534.433.834.534.534.334.234.734.234.434.734.334.634.834.1

Manufacturing

Total

41.041.141.040.840.741.041.442.041.641.640.041.441.341.541.741.841.641.741.741.741.742.041.7

Overtime

3.73.93.83.63.63.84.14.74.44.54.14.34.34.64.64.64.44.54.54.44.54.64.6

Average gross hourly earnings

Total privatenonagrieultural *

Currentdollars

$8.989.289.66

10.0110.3210.5710.8311.1211.4411.8211.6211.6511.6811.7211.7411.8311.8111.8711.9111.9011.9912.0512.06

1982Italian^

$7.737.697.647.527.457.417.397.407.407.437.41

'7.417.407.40

'7.40'7.45'7.427.457.45

'7.417.457.477.46

Manufac-turing

$9.9110.1910.4810.8311.1811.4611.7412.0712.3712.7812.6312.5612.5512.7412.7312.7712.7912.8912.8712.8812.9413.0013.06

Average gross weekly earnings

Total privatenonagricultural '

Currentdollars

$312.50322.02334.24345.35353.98363.61373.64385.86394.68406.61392.76401.93402.96402.00401.51410.50403.90408.33413.28408.17414.85419.34411.25

1982dollar*2

$269.16266.79264.22259.47255.40254.99254.87256.73255.29255.73

'250.33'255.68255.36

'253.95'253.00'258.50'253.71256.17

'258.46'254.31257.67259.81254.49

Current dollars

Manufac-turing

$406.31418.81429.68441.86455.03469.86486.04506.94514.59531.65505.20519.98518.31528.71530.84533.79532.06537.51536.68537.10539.60546.00544.60

Construc-tion

$480.44495.73513.17526.01533.40537.70553.63573.00585.10600.23582.55604.63589.79594.39581.78595.98598.30599.46599.46603.34604.90608.00593.84

Retailtrade

$178.70183.62188.72194.40198.48205.06209.95216.46221.47229.82221.59226.08227.73225.94228.38232.00227.66230.69231.49232.18235.77235.54233.66

Percent change froma year earlier, total

private non-agrieulttjral3

Currentdollars

2.53.03.83.32.52.72.83.32.33.0

.22.73.12.63.64.62.53.54.42.53.95.15.1

1982dollars

-1.0-.9

-1.0-1.8-1.6-.2-.0

.7-.6

.2-2.5

.0

.3-.3

.61.8-.4

.71.4-.5

.61.72.0

1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and

clerical workers (CPi-W) (on a 1982=100 bane). Seasonally adjusted CPI-W data revised be-ginning 1992.

3 Based on seasonally unadjusted dataNOTE.—Sec Note, p. 14.Source; Department of Labor, Bureau of Lalwr Statistics.

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY

Period

1987- Dec .1988- Dec .. .1989- Dec .1990- Dec1991- Dec1992- Dec1993- Dec1994- Dec1995- Dec1996- Dec .

1994- Mar

SeptDec

1995- Mar

SeptDec

1996- Mar ...

Sept ...Dec

Index (June 1989 = 100)

Totalcompensa-

tion

Wages andsalaries Benefits'

Percent change from

3 months earlier

Totalcompensa-

tionWages and

salaries Benefits'

12 months earlier

Totalcompensa-

tionWages and

salaries Benefits'

Not seasonally adjusted

93.197.6

102.3107.0111.7115.6119.8123.5126.7130.6

94.198.0

102.0106.1110.0112.9116.4119.7123.1127.3

90.596.7

102.6109.4116.2122.2128.3133.0135.9138.6

Seasonally adjusted

120.8121.8122.8123.5124.4125.3126.1126.9127.8128.8129.6130.6

117.2118.1119.0119.7120.6121.5122.4123.2124.5125.6126.4127.3

130.3131.5132.9133.6133.8134.6135.4136.1136.0136.9137.8138.8

0.8.8.8.6.7.7.6.7.7.8.6.8

0.6.8.8.6.8.7.7.7

1.1.9.6.7

1.1.9

1.1.5.1.6.6.6

-.1.7.7.7

3.34.84.84.64.43.53.63.12.63.1

3.34.14.14.03.72.63.12.82.83.4

3.46.96.16.66.25.25.03.72.22.0

Not seasonally adjusted

3.33.43.33.12.92.82.62.62.72.92.93.1

2.93.12.92.82.92.92.82.83.23.43.33.4

4.43.94.03,72.92.62.12.21.61.71.82.0

1 Employer costs for employee benefits.NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, tree

from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.

Data exclude farm and household workers.

Source: Department of Ijabor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15


PRODUCTIVITY AND DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996P*

1993- IIImIV

1994- InmIV

1995. inmIV

1996- Inmr

iv*

198719881989199019911992199319941995igge**1993- I

nfflIV

1994- IIImIV

1995- IHinIV

1996- Inmr

IV*

Output per ho«r of alipersons

Businesssector

Nonfarmbusinesssector

Output1

Businesssector

Nonfarrabusinesssector

Hours of allpersons*

Businesssector


Compensation perhour3

Businesssector


Heal compensationper hour4

Businesssector


Unit laboreosta

Businesssector


Implicit pricedeflator5

Businesssector


Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted

94.194.695.396.196.7

100.0100.2100.7100.8101.9

100.299.8

100.0100.9

100.5100.6101.1101.1

100.4100.8101.2101.0

101.5101.8101.9102.5

94.695.295.796.296.9

100.0100.2100.7100.9101.7

100.199.7

100.1100.8

100.3100.6101.0101.1

100.5100.9101.3101.1

101.5101.7101.7102.2

91.194.697.898.796.9

100.0102.7107.0109.6113.0

101.4102.1102.8104.5

104.9106.7107.7108.7

108.8109.0110.3110.4

111.2112.6113.2114.8

91.495.198.198.897.1

100.0102.9107.0109.9113.1

101.6102.2103.3104.7

104.9106.7107.8108.8

109.0109.2110.6110.7

111.4112.8113.3114.9

96.8100.0102.5102.6100.2100.0102.5106.2108.8110.9

101.3102.3102.9103.5

104.4106.0106.6107.6

108.4108.2109.0109.3

109.6110.6111.1112.0

96.599.9

102.5102.7100.2100.0102.8106.3108.9111.2

101.4102.6103.2103.9

104.6106.1106.7107.6

108.4108.3109.1109.5

109.8110.9111.4112.4

79.983.585.890.795.1

100.0102.5104.5107.8111.8

101.7102.3102.8103.3

104.0104.2104.7105.5

106.2107.3108.3109.4

110.3111.4112.5113.5

80.283.685.990.695.1

100.0102.3104.3107.7111.6

101.5102.0102.5103.0

103.8104.1104.5105.4

106.2107.2108.2109.3

110.2111.3112.2113.2

98.799.097.197.497.9

100.099.599.099.2

100.0

99.699.599.699.3

99.599.098.698.8

98.898.999.399.8

99.899.9

100.2100.3

99.199.297.197.397.9

100.099.398.899.199.8

99.599.399.399.0

99.298.998.498.7

98.798.899.299.6

99.799.799.9

100.0

84.988.390.094.498.3

100.0102.3103.8106.9109.8

101.5102.6102.9102.4

103.6103.6103.6104.4

105.8106.5107.0108.3

108.6109.4110.4110.7

84.787.889.794.298.1

100.0102.1103.7106.7109.7

101.4102.4102.4102.2

103.4103.5103.5104.2

105.6106.3106.8108.1

108.5109.4110.3110.7

83.886.890.594.097.7

100.0102.5104.7107.1108.9

101.7102.3102.7103.3

103.9104.4105.1105.6

106.4106.9107.5107.8

108.2108.8109.2109.5

83.586.490.093.897.6

100.0102.5104.9107.2108.8

101.8102.4102.7103.3

103.9104.5105.3105.7

106.5107.1107,5107.8

108.1108.7109.0109.4

Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates

-0.2.5.8.8.6

3.4.2.5.1

1.0

-3.5-1.6

.83.8

-1.7.5

1.9.2

-2.61.41.4

-.6

2.11.2.3

2.4

-0.3.6.5.5.7

3.2.2.5.3.8

-3.8-1.8

1.72.8

-1.81.01.7.4

-2.31.51.8

-1.2

1.9.6

02.2

2.93.83.4.9

-1.83.22.74.22.53.0

-1.22.53.06.5

1.76.94.13.8

.3

.74.8.5

3.05.02.25.8

3.04.13.2.7

-1 83.02.94.02.72.9

-.92.74.15.5

.87.04.24.0

.6

.95.0.3

2.74.81.95.9

3.03.32.5.1

-2 3o

2.53.72.42.0

2.44.22.22.6

3.56.42.13.6

3.07

3.31.1

.83.81.93.4

3.23.52.6

.225-.22.83.52.42.1

3.04.62.42.6

2.76.02.43.6

2.96

3.21.5

.84.11.93.7

3.84.52.85.74.85.22.51.93.13.8

1.92.62.02.0

2.8.7

2.02.9

2.84.13.64.3

3.24.33.83.7

3.74.32.75.54.95.22.32.13.23.6

1.32.11.82.0

2.91.31.83.3

2.94.03.74.0

3.43.93.33.6

0.2.3

-2.0.3.6

2.1-.5-.6

.3

.8

-1.0-.3

.1-1.2

.8-1.8-1.7

.7

-.0.7

1.51.9

-.0.4

1.4.6

0.1.1

-2.1.1.7

2.1-.7-.5

.3

.7

-1.6-.8-.1

-1.1

.9-1.2-1.9

1.0

.1

.61.61.6

.2

.11.0.4

4.04.01.94.94.21.72.31.43.02.7

5.64.31.2

-1.8

4.6.2.1

2.8

5.62.62.15.0

1.13.13.41.3

4.03.72.15.04.21.92.11.52.92.9

5.24.0.1

-.7

4.9.3.1

2.9

5.32.51.95.2

1.53.33.31.4

2.73.54.24.03.92.42.52.22.31.6

3.52.51.32.4

2.41.82.72.0

3.02.22.01.0

1.52.41.31.1

2.63.44.24.24.12.42.52.32.21.5

3.82.11.22.5

2.52.22.91.9

3.02.01.7

.9

1.42.11.21.3

1 Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector.2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family

workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.3 Wages and salaries of employees phis employers' contributions for social insurance and pri-

vate benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments forthe self-employed.

* Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for aD urban consumers (CPI-U).5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index

NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore

may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.

* Data based on GDI* data released January 31, 1997. Other data for 1996: IV shown else-where in this issue were released February 28, 1997.


16


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production was unchanged in January; capacity utilization fell.

NDEX.1992. 100- (RATIOSCAli)140

130

120

no

130

120

no

100

140

130

120

110

100 14

TOTAL INDUSTMAL PRODUCTION

miiliimlmnliiiii innlmimiimi.iiii

MANUFACTURING

_ NONDURABLEi illliin ll ll n

UTIUriES AND MINING

imilTIES

1993 1997

INDEX, 1992 -100- (RATIO SCAIE)150

140

130

120

110

100

90

SO

70

FINAL PRODUCTS

BUSINESS -EQUIPMENT

^/

=CC^

"""""'N

iniiluiii

\,_.—

DEFENSEAND SPACEEQUIPMENT

t t t l t l t m i

\GCXXJS

^.^

'v

iiiiiiutii

yV^~"

^:

f-~ •* %..•

1miilnm

PERCENT*

88

86

84

32

80

78

CAPACITY UTIUZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY)

_ S\

^^^~^-~r

n 1 1 1 In i M

1993

, , , , ,11994

p^^" ^^>

M i M In 1 1 11995

,A -~~n

Inin1996 ,

IM l l l l l l ,1997

COONOl Of ECONOMIC ADVBBO

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1987 .1988 ..1989 ...1990 ...199119921993199419951996 r

1996: JanPebMarAprMav\ •*

JulyAuer . . .Sept .OcfNovr .Oecr .

1997: Janp

Total industrial production

Index,1992=100

93.197.399.098.996.9

100.0103.4108.6112.1115.2

U2.4113.8113.2114.3114.8115.5115.5115.8116.0116.2117.1117.7

117.7

Percent change *

Frompreced-

ingmonth

-0.41.3

,u.9.4.6.0.3.1.2.8.5

.0

Promyear

earlier

4.64.41.8-.2

-2.03.23.45.03.32.7

.41.91.42.62.93.33.42.92.63.33.94.3

4.7

Industry production indexes, 1992=100

Manufacturing

Total

92.897.199.098.596.2

100.0103.7109.4113.2116.4

113.4114.8113.9115.2115.7116.4117.0117.2117.4117.6118.5119.4

119.1

Durable

92.098.1

100.599.095.5

100.0105.5113.4119.7125.8

121.5123.6121.8124.6125.2126.3126.9127.5127.2127.1128.4129.2

129.1

Nondura-ble

93.896.097.397.997.0

100.0101.7105.0106.2106.3

104.6105.3105.4105.2105.5105.9106.4106.2106.9107.4108.0108.9

108.5

Mining

101.5102.9101.5103.7101.6100.098.9

101.5100.9103.0

99.0100.8102.8102.9103.2104.4103.1104.5103.4103.4103.4104.9

104.2

Utilities

89.493.997.198.3

100.4100.0103.9105.3109.1112.4

112.5113.3114.4113.5114.6114.0109.4110.8111.1111.9113.1109.8

113.0

Capacity utilizationrate, percent a

Totalindustiy

81.383.984.082.379.280.481.683.783.883.1

82.483.282.683.183.283.583.283.283.183.083.483.5

83.3

Manufac-turing

81.383.883.681.478.079.580.883.183.182.1

81.582.281.382.082.082.382.482.382.182.082.482.7

82.21 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes.3 Output as percent of capacity.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve %stem.

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDMANUFACTURES

[1992=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19871988198919901991199219931994 .19951996' ,

1996: JanFebMar .

May

July

SeptOctr

NoVDec'

1997- Jan' ... .

Products

;i Final products

Total

93.297.699.799.497.5

100.0103.2107.1109.9112.8

109.8111.7111.1112.1112.2113.1113.4113.0113.3113.6114.7115.3

115.7

Consumer goods

Total

93.796.797.797.397.0

100.0103.2107.4108.9110.4

108.3109.9109.4109.8110.0110.8110.7110.1110.5110.8112.1112.8

112.9

Dur-able

goods

93.999.8

101.398.093.0

100.0110.1120.4122.8126.2

121.1124.7120.8125.7126.9129.9129.7128.0127.1124.5127.1129.4

128.0

Nondur-able

goods

93.695.996.797.198.1

100.0101.5104.1105.3106.5

105.1106.2106.6105.9105.8106.0106.0105.6106.3107.3108.3108.7

109.1

Equipment

Total1

92.799.1

103.0102.798.4

100.0103.0106.6111.6116.8

112.4114.8113.9115.9116.0117.1118.1117.9118.111S.4119.1119.6

120.5

Busi-ness

85.193.598.898.295.7

100.0105.1111.3119.4126.6

122.0124.6122.6125.1125.0126.6128.1127.7128.3128.8129.9130.5

131.5

De-- fense

and• spaceequip-ment

117.5117.1117.4115.9106.7100.093.586.280.777.0

74.876.477.677.477.977.077.777.977.777.076.276.8

75.9

Intermediate products

Total

100.7102.5102.9101.997.5

100.0102.5106.1107.5109.3

106.9108.1108.5107.7108.9109.7108.9110.0110.6110.2111.5110.7

110.2

Con-struc-tionsup-plies

104.7106.3105.5102.996.2

100.0103.3110.3111.6116.7

110.8113.3115.5114.2116.1118.3117.5119.2119.8117.7119.5117.3

116.5

Busi-nesssup-plies

98.4100.3101.3101.498.3

100.0102.0103.6105.0105.0

104.6105.0104.3103.9104.6104.6103.9104.6105.3105.8106.8106.7

106.4

Materials

Total

90.495.197.097.295.9

100.0103.9111.3116.6120.3

117.5118.5117.7119.5120.1120.5120.5121.5121.2121.7122.2123.2

123.0

Energy

96.298.599.5

100.6100.8100.099.6

101.4102.7163.8

102.5103.5104.5104.2104.6104.8102.4104.0103.9103.9103.9103.7

103.71 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.

[1992-100; monthly data seasonally adjusted)

Period

19871988198919901991199219931994199519!J6'

1996- JanFebMar

May

July

SeptOcfNoVDecr

1997: Jan?

Durable manufactures

Primary metsls

Total

97.8106.2104.9104.096.7

100.0105.5113.0115.7117.1

111.7114.6115.6116.1116.3117.0118.0118.3119.5122.1117.4118.5

117.6

Ironandsteel

95.4107.6106.2106.496.0

100.0107.1113.2116.3116.5

112.3113.9113.8114.6115.7117.1118.0118.2117.4123.2117.1117.3

116.7

Fabri-catedmetalprod-ucts

101.9106.1104.8101.296.2

100.0104.4112.0115.7118.6

116.7117.9117.6117.8118.4118.9119.1119.4119.3119.3119.5119.4

118.9

Indus-trial

machin-ery andequip-ment

86.097.0

103.0100.195.4

100.0109.9125.3141.4156.4

148.3151.4152.5153.3154.3156.1157.7159.6159.4159.9161.7162.9

163.8

Elec-trical

machin-ery

75.682.585.887.789.6

100.0110.0126.3148.2163.3

155.8161.0160.3161.1161.8164.0163.8164.6165.2165.6167.1169.8

168.3

Transportationequipment

Total

96.1101.1105.1102.396.5

100.0103.7107.4105.0106.2

103.3104.494.9

106.4106.8107.1109.5109.3107.3105.3109.6110.5

112.0

Motorvehicles

andparts

94.9100.2101.295.388.5

100.0113.7129.7128.5127.1

127.6127.4106.8130.3130.5130.4134.1132.8127.0121.2128.8129.3

131.5

Lum-berand

prod-ucts

104.9105.1104.3101.694.5

100.0100.9105.9106.2109.8

105.3106.3109.7110.3110.4112.4109.3111.4110.7109.2112.8109.7

109.0

Nondurable manufactures

Ap-parelprod-ucts

105.5103.6100.397.297.8

100.0"102.4106.5103.398.2

96.899.298.199.099.099.098.398.598.297.897.597.4

96.6

Print-ingandpub-

lishing

102.5103.4103.5103.199.1

100.0100.8100.599.898.5

98.299.297.696.997.997.197.697.999.199.7

100.3100.1

99.3

Chemi-calsand

prod-ucts

87.092.295.197.396.4

100.0101.0104.1106.5108.8

106.8107.0106.6106.9107.2107.9109.0108.7109.7111.3111.7113.1

113.2

Foods

93.594.995.997.098.4

100.0102.1103.7105.7106.4

104.8105.7106.2105.9105.6106.1106.5105.5106.2107.1107.6108.9

109.2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18


NEW CONSTRUCTION[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996'

1996- JanFebMar

July

SeptGetNov . ..Dec'

1997: Jan*7

Total newconstructionexpenditures

Private

Total

Residential

Total" New housingunits

and indus-trial2

Other

andStateandlocal

Billions of dollars

441.6455.6469.8468.5424.2452.1482.7527.1547.1568.6

559.0544.6557.0564.6558.5563.1559.3564.7572.3580.0592.6587.4

589.8

351.0360.9371.6361.1314.1336.2362.6400.0410.2427.4

194.7198.1196.6182.9157.8187.8210.5238.9236.6246.5

418.9411.2419.7424.2418.1423.1419.3426.7428.4433.9444.7443.4

445.7

242.5238.6245.9248.0247.5246.9244.9246.0246.4244.3248.1248.6

249.7

139.9138.9139.2128.0110.6129.6144.1167.9162.9176.4

Annual rates

169.2166.9173.8179.3178.2177.7175.6176.5176.2176.2177.2176.3

176.6

104.4109.6118.0119.493.782.284.493.3

107.0111.4

109.3107.4106.4108.1103.1109.2107.7110.9112.4119.4121.6117.2

121.4

52.053.257.158;s62.666.267.767.866.669.5

67.165.267.468.267.567.066.769.769.670.275.077.5

74.6

90.694.798.2

107.5110.1115.8120.2127.1136.9141.3

140.1133.3137.3140.4140.4140.0140.0138.0143.9146.1147.9144.0

144.1

Construction contracts3

Total valueindex

(1992=100)

'103'104'108'98'92

'100'108'117'122'129

'124'118'131'134'133'131'134'137'132'125128122

120

Commercialand industrial

floor space(millions ofBOjUare feet)

1,019973961783577556589744862829

Annual rates

'708'657'726'713'839'715'638'705'778'681775783

7811 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.2 Includes hotels and motels.3P.W. Dodge series.

Note.—Commercial and industrial floor space series revised to reflect updated seasonal ad-justment factors.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc., P.W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996'

1996: Janr

Feb'Mar'

May'

July'Aug'Sept'Oct.'NovDee'

1997: Janr

New private housing units

Units started, by type of structure

Total

1,620.51,488.11,376.11,192.71,013.91,199.71,287.61,457.01,354.11,474.7

1 unit

1,146.41,081.31,003.3

894.8840.4

1,029.91,125.71,198.41,076.21,159.8

2-4 units

65.358.855.237.535.630.729.435.033.745.2

5 or moreunits

408.7348.0317.6260.4137.9139.0132.6223.5244.1269.6

authorized

1,534.81,455.61,338.41,110.8

948.81,094.91,199.1

3 1,371.61,332.51,433.7

Unitscompleted

1,668.81,529.81,422.81,308.01,090.81,157.51,192.71,346.91,312.61,412.1

New private homes

Homessold

671676650534509610666670667758

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

1,4441,5201,4291,5221,4761,4881,4921,5151,4701,4071,4861,323

1,350

1,1381,1881,1561,2151,1421,2141,1641,2221,1481,1041,1331,005

1,108

223524554846443745586050

39

284297249252286228284256277245293268

203

1,3781,4171,4231,4591,4521,4151,4571,4231,3991,3621,4181,422

1,400

1,4271,3291,3821,3511,4091,4261,4631,4491,3561,3751,4311,469

1,324

727778711741732732782814768706797801

870

Homes forsale at endof period i

366368365321284265;

293'336'370322

370354367368362355352343331330327322

314

for rentalhousing units

(percent) 2

7.77.7

27.47.27.47.4

2 7.37.47.67.8

7.9

7.8

8.0

7.7

1 Seasonally adjusted,2 Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993

data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994.Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.3The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units.

NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. Por other data shown, unitsauthorized are for 17,000 places.

Seasonally adjusted housing starts, housing completions, and homes sold and for sale revisedbeginning 1994.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and TradeIn December, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.2 percent and Inventories fell $1.7 billion. According to advancedata, retail sales rose 0.6 percent in January following a rise of 0.3 percent in December.

BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200 I Im1993

.MANUFACTURINGAND TRADE SALES

1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 11994

I I M 1 t 1 1 1 1

1995

* SEASONAUY ADJUSTEDSOUKE aautlMENT Of COMMERCE

l l I I 1

1996M 1 1 1 1 M 1 1

BILUONS OF DOLLARS' (RATO SCAIE)400

350

300

250

200

150

RETAIL INVENTORIES

i ill M n 1 1 1

\RETAIL SALES

Ill

RATIO*1.80

1997

1.50

1.40

1.30

COJNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

19871988198919901991199219931994199519961"

1995: Dec'1996- Jan

FebMar

May

July

SeptOctNov'Dee**

1997- Jan'

Manufacturing andtrade1

Sales2 Inven-tories3

Wholesale

Sales2 Inven-tories3

Retail

Sales2

TotalDurablegoodsstores

Nondura-ble goods

stores

Inventories 3

TotalDurable

goodsstores

Nondura-ble goods

stores

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted

457,735497,157527,039545,909542,815567,176595,240637,561679,700715,272

695,569

•-690,825699,208700,253709,541715,130711,760719,176717,532722,691725,787728,804727,619

709,846767,226815,486840,428834,281842,137874,515931,702

'990,1631,009,183

990,163

995,352996,008994,010998,430996,984997,322

1,002,4041,005,4351,006,4301,011,2611,010,9161,009,183

122,968134,521143,760149,506148,306154,150161,681172,973187,387199,889

194,839

192,878194,053195,379197,507198,258198,543202,057200,086201,404202,790203,932204,339

163,903178,801187,009195,550200,062207,663215,878234,893

'254,963256,335

254,963

256,258255,569256,444259,592258,834259,262259,100258,822256,959257,770257,929256,335

128,442138,017146,581153,718154,661162,632172,924185,936195,068

'205,429

199,446

'199,262203,392204,228204,031205,669204,366204,719204,599206,127207,487207,324

'207,869

209,052

47,98952,43054,76355,73654,16558,63464,79573,04278,018

'83,944

80,872

'80,59983,28584,10882,79484,05383,47283,53983,53684,18984,88184,604

'84,815

85,437

80,45385,58791,81897,981

100,497103,999108,129112,894117,050

'121,485

118,574

'118,663120,107120,120121,237121,616120,894121,180121,063121,938122,606122,720

'123,054

123,615

207,836219,047237,234239,773243,275251,994267,916290,602

'302,856314,956

302,856

304,370304,824302,153303,397303,930304,192308,858310,926312,771315,357313,616314,956

105,481112,453121,347121,105119,039122,948133,949150,441

'160,481168,241

160,481

161,316161,575159,659160,490161,156161,489164,086166,282167,916169,830167,534168,241

102,355106,594115,887118,668124,236129,046133,967140,161

'142,375146,715

142,375

143,054143,249142,494142,907142,774142,703144,772144,644144,855145,527146,082146,715

Inventory-salesratio4

Manufac-turingand

trade'

1.501.491.521.521.531.481.451.411.431.40

1.421.441.421.421.411.391.401.391.401.391.391.391.39

Retail

1.551.541.581.551.541.521.511.501.541.51

1.521.531.501.481.491.481.491.511.521.521.521.511.52

1 See page 21 for manufacturing.2 Annual data arc averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are sea-

sonally a<Uusted totals for month.

3 Seasonally atljusted, end of period.4 Annual data are averages of seasonally atljusted monthly ratios.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of tlie Onsus.

20


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS. INVENTORIES, AND ORDERSIn December, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and new orders fell; unfilled orders rose slightly. In January,according to advance estimates, durable goods shipments and new orders rose.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS- (RATIO SCALE) BILUONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)

- SHIPMENTS -

DURABLE GOODS\

320

280

240

200

160

80

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)

TOTAL

"LNONDURABLE GOODS

320

280

240

200

160

120

- NEW ORDERS

1993 1994

NONDURABLE GOODS

1995 1996

480440400360

320

280

240

200

1AO

120

80

— INVENTOI

~

1 M 1 1 ll 1 1 M

<IES

—

_..

DU

NON

1 1 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

r-T~"~~~\

"V"\RABLEGOOD

"\ 1DURABLE OCX

M 1 H 1 1 1 1 1 1

OM»«B^ »~~

5

DOS

1 1 M 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 III 1 t H 1

1997

RATIO2.00

1.80

1.60

1.40

K20

*

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

^x-»~—

1 M 1 I 1 1 H 1 1

1993

pv^._^

1 M t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1994

iiml

1995

"-V.

1 1 1 H 1 i t 1 1 1 immiiii1996 1997

COUNCB. OF ECONOMIC ADVB81S

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996'

1995- Dec

1996: JanFebMar

May

July

SeptOctNovDec' .

1997: Janf

Manufacturers' shipments l

Total Durablegoods

Nondurablegoods

Manufacturers' inventories2

Total Durablegoods

Nondurablegoods

Manufacturers' new orders *

Total

Durable goods

Total

Capitalgoods

industries,nondefense

Nondurablegoods

Manufac-turers'uniilledorders2

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted

206,326224,619236,698242,686239,847250,394260,635278,652297,244309,954

301,284

298,685301,763300,646308,003311,203308,851312,400312,847315,160315,510317,548315,411

108,128118,458123,158123,776121,000128,489135,886148,916159,215166,339

161,976

159,125161,918160,377164,615167,487166,902167,774168,471170,705168,824170,144168,656170,696

98,198106,161113,540118,910118,847121,905124,749129,736138,029143,615

139,308

139,560139,845140,269143,388143,716141,949144,626144,376144,455146,686147,404146,755

338,107369,378391,243405,105390,944382,480390,721406,207432,344437,892

432,344

434,724435,615435,413435,441434,220433,868434,446435,687436,700438,134439,371437,892

220,778242,450257.513263,213250,006238,096243,476254,798270,356276,417

270,356

272,657273,400273,535273,870273,857273,649274,807275,926276,347277,328277,917276,417

117,329126,928133,730141,892140,938144,384147,245151,409161,988161,475

161,988

162,067162,215161,878161,571160,363160,219159,639159,761160,353160,806161,454161,475

209,389228,270239,572244,507238,805248,212257,698279,560298,092312,818

306,155

307,151302,648305,091307,001314,194312,139317,304310,575318,515321,887320,244315,703

110,809122,076126,055125,583119,849126,308133,081149,505160,214169,068

167,520

167,355163,146165,519163,472170,287169,994172,402166,267173,811174,900171,888168,766174,811

26,09431,10832,98833,33130,47131,52531,69335,84741,30244,770

47,586

46,16344,55546,61340,48744,97942,92145,93541,17247,51547,48243,88543,74145,817

98,579106,194113,516118,924118,957121,905124,617130,055137,877143,750

138,635

139,796139,502139,572143,529143,907142,145144,902144,308144,704146,987148,356146,937

430,468474,192508,853531,115519,143493,104458,161469,450480,128514,553

480,128

488,594489,479493,924492,922495,913499,201504,105501,833505,188511,565514,261514,553

Manufac-turers'inven-tory—

shipmentsratio3

1.591.581.631.651.651.541.491.431.431.41

1.441.461.441.451.411.401.401.391.391.391.391.381.39

1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are sea-sonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales.

2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period.

3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21


PRICESPRODUCER PRICESThe producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.3 percent in January. Prices of finished consumer foodsfell 1.0 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods were unchanged. Capital equipment prices werealso unchanged. (Seasonally adjusted data revised.)

INDEX, 1982-100 (RATIO SCAIE) INDEX, 1 982 - 100 (RATIO SCAIE)

150

120

110

FINISHED GOODS PRICES SEASCNAUY ADJUST* '

CAPTIAL EQUIPMEN

CONSUMER FOODS _^

\

/

- ^' 1

t \sy

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11989

' >>/

r•'

r^.. — -•

t 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1990

-. — —"' ^\

* .*"\ ^.^

1 1 t 1 i f 1 t 1 M

1991

— • "

^*'~"v\

iifc_ '- *

CONSUMER GOODSEXCLUDING FI

M 1 M 1 1 M 1 1

1992

OODS

i i i i I 1 I I I I i1993

IT

f

"' "•-j^^'

s-.'-'^~

t 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 t

1994

/TOTAL /

"•*" "*

I I I I 1 1 > I I I i1995

r'"^

. "~.s'

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11996

.

-

_

1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1

150

120

110

100

1997

SOJBCE; Dt PAYMENT Of WK* COUNCH Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996P1996: Jan'

Feb'Mar' ....Aprr

May ....June' ...July ....Augr ....Sepf ....OcfNov ....Decr

1997: Jan

Finished goods

Totalfinishedgoods

105.4108.0113.6119.2121.7123.2124.7125.5127.9131.3129.7129.7130.4130.6130.8131.2131.2131.6132.0132.3132.6133.4133.0

Con-sumerfoods

109.5112.6118.7124.4124.1123.3125.7126.8129.0133.5131.1130.8131.9131.5131.7133.6133.7134.6135.1136.0136.0135.9134.5

Finished goods excluding consumer foods

Total

104.0106.5111.8117.4120.9123.1124.4125.1127.5130.5129.3129.2129.8130.3130.4130.3130.4130.6131.0131.1131.5132.5132.5

Consumer goods

Total

100.7103.1108.9115.3118.7120.8121.7121.6124.0127.6125.9125.9126.7127.3127.5127.3127.4127.7128.1128.4129.0130.3130.3

Durable

111.5113.8117.6120.4123.9125.7128.0130.9132.7134.2133.7133.8134.0133.9134.2134.5134.2134.4134.8134.2134.4134.5134.4

Nondura-ble

94.997.3

103.8111.5115.0117.3117.6116.2118.8123.2121.1121.0122.0123.0123.1122.8123.0123.3123.7124.4125.1126.9126.9

Capitalequip-ment

111.7114.3118.8122.9126.7129.1131.4134.1136.7138.3138.0138.0138.1138.1138.1138.3138.3138.5138.7138.3138.4138.6138.6

Totalfinished

consumer

103.6106.2112.1118.2120.5121.7123.0123.3125.6129.5127.6127.5128.4128.7128.9129.4129.4129.9130.3130.8131.2132.1131.7

Intermediate materials

Total

101.5107.1112.0114.5114/1114.7116.2118.5124.9125.7125.5125.0125.2125.6126.1125.7125.5125.7126.2126.0126.1126.5126.7

Foodsand

feeds'

99.2109.5113.8113.3111.1110.7112.7114.8114.8128.4123.3123.1123.3125.6130.4131.3131.8132.2133.2130.5127.8127.6126.6

Other

101.7106.9111.9114.5114.6114.9116.4118.7125.5125.6125.7125.2125.3125.6125.9125.5125.2125.4125.8125.8126.0126.5126.7

Crude materials

Total

93.796.0

103.1108.9101.2100.4102.4101.8102.7113.5109.0111.1109.8114.2115.4112.6115.1115.8112.8111.9113.8119.4125.6

Food-stuffsandfeed-stuffs

96.2106.1111.2113.1105.5105.1108.4106.5105.8121.5115.4115.4115.8119.8126.7127.6129.8129.0124.5120.5117.8114.6113.4

Other

87.985.593.4

101.594.693.594.794.896.8

104.0100.9104.3101.8106.4103.7

98.5101.1102.8100.9102.2107.0118.2129.2

1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing ami fceds.NOTE.-—Beginning 1996, indexes are based on updated value weighty.

Seasonally adjiMbMJ data rcvisM] beginning119.92.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of I^abor Statistics.

22


CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERSIn January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted (it rose 0.3percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.0 percent above its year-earlier level. (Seasonally adjusteddata revised.)

INDEX, 1982-84 . 100 (RATIO SCALE)

180

170

160

120

110

100

SEASONMLY ADJUSTED

INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE)

180

1990 1991 1992 1993

I 1 1 1 1 i i i 1 11994

1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 1

1995 1994

11(11 h i t 1 1

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

1001997

COUNOl Of ECONOMIC ADVESB

[1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19871988 _19891990199119921993199419951996

1996- Jan'Feb1-Mar'Aprr

July'

SepfOctr

Decr

1997: Jan

All items1

Notseason-

allyadjust-

ed(NSA)

300.0113.6118.3124.01307136214031445148215241569154 .4154.9155.7156.3156.6156.7157.0157.3157.8158.3158.6158.6

159.1

Season-ally

adjust-ed

154.7155.1155.6156.1156.5156.7157.1157.4157.9158.3158.8159.2159.4

Food

15.9113.5118.2125.1132.4136.3137.9140.9144.3148.4153.3150.5150.9151.5151.8152.1153.1153.8154.4155.1155.8156.4156.4156.0

Housing

Total'

412114.2118.5123.0128.5133.6137.5141.2144.8148.5152.8150.8151.1151.4151.8152.2152.3152.9153.2153.5153.9154.4154.7155.2

Shelter

Total

28.2121.3127.1132.8140.0146.3151.2155.7160.5165.7171.0168.5168.9169.3169.7170.1170.4171.2171.4171.7172.2172.6172.9173.4

Rent-ers'costs(Dee.

1982=100)

ao128.1133.6138.9146.7155.6160.9165.0169.4174.3180.2

176.6177.1177.6178.0178.4178.9180.0180.1180.5181.1181.5181.7

182.8

Home-own-ers'costs(Dec.

1982=100)

20.0124.8131.1137.3144.6150.2155.3160.2165.5171.0176.5

174.3174.7175.1175.4175.9176.2176.8177.1177.4177.8178.3178.6179.0

Main-te-

nanceandre^

pairs(NSA)

0.2111.8114.7118.0122.2126.3128.6130.6130.8135.0139.0

136.3137.0137.5138.0138.8138.8139.4139.7139.9140.2141.1141.5141.5

Fueland

otherutili-ties

7.1103.0104.4107.8111.6115.3117.8121.3122.8123.7127.5

125.1125.6125.9126.7127.1126.8127.4128.0128.4129.0129.6130.3131.2

Ap-parelandup-

keep

S.3110.6115.4118.6124.1128.7131.9133.7133.4132.0131.7132.7131.9132.5132.2132.1131.7131.5130.3131.0131.3131.7131.8132.3

Transportation

Total1

17.1105.4108.7114.1120.5123.8126.5130.4134.3139.1143.0140.2140.9141.7143.1143.6143.1143.1143.1143.8144.3144.8145.7

145.4

Newcars

4.0114.6116.9119.2121.0125.3128.4131.5136.0139.0141.4

140.0140.3140.7140.8140.9141.4141.7142.0142.7142.4142.1142.2141.9

Motorfuel

3.280.280.988.5

101.299.499.098.098.5

100.0106.3

101.5101.6104.4109.3110.2106.5106.0105.0104.9106.6108.4111.1111.8

Medi-calcare

7.3130.1138.6149.3162.8177.0190.1201.4211.0220.5228.2225.3225.9226.4227.0227.7228.3228.9229.3229.9230.4231.0231.5231.9

En-ergy2

7.088.689.394.3

102.1102.5103.0104.2104.6105.2110.1

106.3106.8107.9111.1111.4109.2109.5109.3109.5110.7112.0113.7114.6

AMitemslessfoodanden-ergy

77.0118.2123.4129.0135.5142.1147.3152.2156.5161.2165.6

163.8164.2164.6164.9165.3165.6166.0166.2166.7167.0167.4167.7

167.9

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Household fuels—gaa (piped), electricity, ftiel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,

etc, excluded beginning 1983.3 Relative importance, December 1996.

NOTE.—Data incorporate a rental equivalence measure for bomeownership costs (beginning1983).

Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1992.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,

23


CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS[Percent change from preceding period? monthly data seasonally adjusted, except aa noted by NSAJ

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996*

1996: Jan'Feb'Mar'Apr1"May

Augr

Sept'Oct'NovDec'

1997' Jan

Change from preceding period

Totalfinishedgoods .

Consumer goods

FoodsExcluding

foods

eqnip-ment

Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA

2.24.04.95.7-.11.6.2

1.72.32.8

— 025.75.22.6

-1.51.62.41.11.93.4

4.13.15.38.7-.71.6

-1.42.02.33.7

1.33.63.83.42.51.71.82.02.2.5

Change, month to month

0.10.5.2.2.3

0.3.3.2.2.6

-.3

-0.2O

.8-.3

.21.4.1.7.4.7

0-.1

-1.0

0.30

.6

.5

.2— 2

.1

.2

.3

.2

.51.0

0

00.1

00.1

0.1.1

-.3.1.1

0

Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate

Totalfinishedgoods

3.82.82.52.83.42.51.92.52.53.43.14.3

2.1

Consumer goods

Foods

4.1-1.2

1.51.22.85.36.99.14.67.14.22.4

-4.3

ISxchidingfoods

5.25.93.94.55.21.9.3.6

2.53.24.17.0

6.1

equip-ment

1.2-.3

.3

.3

.3

.6

.61.21.20-.3-.3

.9

Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate

Totalfinishedgoods

2.82.83.33.33.12.52.33.02.52.62.83.4

2.8

Consumer goods

Foods

4.13.63.12.6.8

3.44.05.94.97.06.63.5

1.2

Excludingfoods

2.82.94.24.95.62.92.42.92.21.72.44.8

4.6

equip-ment

1.81.61.6

.70

.4

.4

.7

.9

.3

.4

.4

.4

Changefrom year

earlier,total

finishedgoodsNSA

2.12.55.24.92.11.21.2.6

1.92.7

2.22.02.42.42.32.72.63.03.03.03.02.8

2.5

NOTE.—See Note, p. 22. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except aa noted by NSA}

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996

1996: Jan'Febr

Mar'.Apr'May

Augr

Sept'Get'

Dee'

1997- Jan

Allitems1 Food

Housing

Total1

Shelter

Total1Bent-era'costs

Home-own-era'

coats

andotherutili-ties

Ap-pareland

upkeep

Transportation

Total1 Newcars

Motorfuel

Medi-cal

careEner-gy2

Allitemslessfoodand

energy

Change, December to December, NSA

4.44.44.66.13.12.92.72.72.53.3

0.4.3.3.3.3.1.3.2.3.3.3.3

.1

3.55.25.65.31.91.52.92.92.14.3

3.74.03.94.53.42.62.72.23.02.9

0.3.3.4.2.2.7.5.4.5.5A

0

-.3

0.3.2.2.3.3.1.4.2.2.3.3.2

.3

4.84.54.95.23.92.93.03.03.52.9

3.93.94.56.74.22.82.62.33.03.4

0.3.2.2.2.2.2.5.1.2.3.2.2

.3

0.5.3.3.2.2.3.6.1.2.3.2.1

.6

5.34.75.14.73.72.93.23.33.72.8

1.62.93.24.02.92.32.5.2

1.44.6

4.84.71.05.13.41.4.9

-1.6.1

-.2

6.13.04.0

10.4-1.5

3.02.43.81.54.4

1.82.12.31.43.32.32.83.21.61.6

18.7-2.1

6.836.5

-16.01.8

-5.45.9

-4.012.7

Change, month to month

0.2.2.2.2.3.2.3.2.2.2.3.2

.2

0.4.4.2.6.3

-.2.5.5.3.5.5.5

.7

0.5— 6

.5-.2_ -1

-.3-.2-.9

.5

.2

.3

.1

.4

0.6.5.6

1.0.3

-.300.5.3.3.6

-.2

0.1.2.3.1.1.4.2.2.5

-.2-.2

.1

-.2

3.0-.12.84.7

.8-3.4-.5-.9-.11.61.72.5

.6

5.86.98.59.67.96.65.44.93.93.0

8.2.5

5.118.1

-7.42.0

-1.42.2

-1.38.6

4.24.74.45.24.43.33.22.63.02.6

0.3.3.2.3.3.3.3.2.3.2.3.2

.2

1.7.5

1.03.0.3

-2.0.3

-.2.2

1.11.21.5

.8

0.2.2.2.2.2.2.2.1.3.2.2.2

.1

Addendum: All items,percent change(annual rate)

Frompre-vious'quar-ter3

3~i

3~4

2"i

3.3

From3

monthsearlier

2.63.44.03.73.72.92.62.33.13.13.63.3

2.8

From6

monthsearlier

2.82.83.23.13.53.43.13.03.02.83.03.2

2.9

Fromyear

earlierNSA

3.64.14.85.44.23.03.02.62.83.0

2.72.72.82.92.92.83.02.93.03.03.33.3

3.01 Includes items not shown separately.3 Household ftiels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,

etc., excluded beginning 1983.3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.

NOTE.—See Note, p. 23.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

24


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSIn February, prices received by farmers fefl 2.8 percent and prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data arenot seasonally adjusted.)

INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)120

INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCAIE)120

120

100

80

60

DATH-.

^ s^Xl

-

-

I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1119)19

t "^

1 II M 1 1 M 1 1

19«fl

^ "—I

1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 I I I1991

-"" — ^-

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1995

/ —

1 1 1 I 1 ! 1 i 1 1 f

IOC'S

1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11QQ4

1 ~" "

i i i 1 E 1 I I I I I199.5

•+***** >—••.

M 1 M 1 ! 1 M 1

1OQA

"«• -

-

i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11997

120

100

80

60

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVH> TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

(1990-92=100; net seasonally adjusted]

Period

19871988198919901991199219931994 .19951996

1996: FebMarAprMayJune . . .July

SeptOctNovDec

1997: Jan ... .Feb

Prices received by farmers

All farmproducts

8999

10410410098

101100102112

106109108111118119117116112111110

108105

Crops

86104109103101101102105112127

123129128131140136133125119118116

'116113

Livestock andproducts

9193

100105

9997

100959299

9393939699

103103106103102103

'9898

Prices paid by farmers

All commodities,services, interest,taxes, and wage

rates1

87919699

100101104106110115

113114114115115115115115115115115

116116

Productionitems, interest,taxes, and wage

rates

87929799

100101102106109114

113114114114114114114114114113113

115115

Productionitems

87909599

100101103106109114

113114114115115116116116114114114

115115

Ratio2

102108108105999798949398

94969597

103103102101

979796

9391

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest,

taxes, and wage rates.

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The in-dexes have been converted to a 1990-92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.

Source: Department of Agriculture.

25


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURESGrowth In M2 and in M3 slowed in January. (Series revised.)

BIUJONS OF DOtlARS* (RATIO SCAtE) BltUONS Of DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)5,200

4,400

3£QQ

800

600 i ! ! 1 1 1 1 H II

1989

.Ml — -— —

i i M 1 1 1 1 1 n1990

—- - -^

1 t 1 1 1 ) i i 1 t 1

1991

M3

x-^

t 1 1 1 1 1 i i t a

1992

\M2

-^<CMl

1993

t i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1994

t H i ) i 1 i t t I

1995

__.__,.— •-—

i \ 1 1 i ! i n i f

1996

i i t n 1 n M i

1997

5,200

4,400

4000

3600

800

600

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ACMSQB

[Averages of daily fig-tires, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1987: Dec'1988- Dec'1989- Dec'1990: Dec' .1991: Dec'1992: Dec'1993: Dec'1994: Dec'1995: Dec'1996- Dec'

1996: Jan'Feb'Mar' ..

JulyA«gr

Sept'OcfNov'Dec'

1997: Jail

Ml

Sum of currency,demand deposits,travelers* cheeks,

and othercheckable depos-

its (OCDs)

749.7787.0794.2825.8897.3

1,025.01,129.81,150.71,129.01,080.9

1,122.21,119.81,126.21,123.51,117.11,115.51,108.81,099.81,093.21,080.11,079.91,080.9

1.079.6

M2

Ml phis retailMMMF balances,savings deposits

(includingMMDAs), and

small time deposits

2,832.72,996.33,160.93,279.53,379.63,434.03,486.63,502.13,655.03,833.0

3,669.93,685.03,713.93,724.53,725.63,741.93,750.03,762.83,775.43,787.83,809.33,833.0

3.849.7

M3

M2 phis largetime deposits,BPs, Euro-dollars, andinstitution-

only MMMFbalances

3,672.53,912.94,065.94,125.94,180.44,190.44,254.44,328.74,594.84,935.2

4,622.34,655.24,692.14,708.74,731.24,753.54,771.54,791.44,822.54,859.84,890.14,935.2

4.965.6

I.

M3plusother liquid

assets

4,341.54,666.24,894.64,977.55,006.45,078.95,169.35,312.45,704.2

r 6,071.9

5,722.35,737.85,791.85,827.15,833.95,865.65,888.65,921.45,964.85,987.46,030.9

r 6,071.9

Debt

Debt ofdomestic

nonfinancialsectors

(monthlyaverage ofadjacent

month-endlevels)'

8,664.19,441.6

10,171.610,852.611,337.111,880.712,506.513,148.413,866.9

;> 14,611.4

13,916.613,987.314,063.214,129.514,186.614,246.114,317.514,378.314,426.414,484.914,553.1

* 14,611.4

Percent change from year or 6months earlier2

Ml

3.55.0.9

4.08.7

14.210.21.8

-1.9-4.3

-4.0-4.2-2.7-2.1-2.8-2.4-2.4-3.6-5.9-7.7-6.7-6.2

-5.3

M2

3.65.85.53.83.11.61.5.4

4.44.9

4.84.55.25.24.74.84.44.23.33;44.54.9

5.3

M3

5.36.53.91.51.3.2

1.51.76.17.4

5.75.76.2626.66.96.55.95.66.46.77.6

8.1

Debt

9.69.07.76.74.54.85.35.15.55.4

4.44.95.25.35.35.55.85.65.25.05.25.1

1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, Slate and local govern-ments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.

a Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 monthsearlier at a simple annual rate.

NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.

Series revised to reflect annual benchmarking and seasonal adjustment revisions.

Sourc«; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

26


COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1987- Dec'1988- Dec'1989- Dec'1990' Dec'1991- Dec'1992- Dec'1993' Dec'1994- Dec'1995- Dec'1996- Dec'

1996' Jan'Feb'Mar'Apr'May'

July'Aug' . .Sept'Oct' .Nov'Dec'

1997- Jan

Cur-rency

196.8212.3222.7246.8267.3292.9322.2354.4372.6395.2

373.0373.4375.4376.4377.7379.9382.8385.2387.6390.2392.5395.2

397.0

De-manddepos-

its

286.8286.8279.3277.4289.6339.5385.2384.1391.1402.6

394.4397.3404.5404.5407.1410.6408.7405.8404.9398.3402.2402.6

401.9

Othercheck-able

depos-its

(OCDs)

259.5280.9285.3293.9332.5384.*414.5403.8356.5274.5

345.9340.3337.3333.9323.5316.4308.7300.4292.2283.1276.7274.5

272.1

Money marketmutual fund

balances

Retail1

224.6245.9321.7357.1371.9353.5354.9384.3455.2536.6

459.6466.0476.8481.4484.5493.6499.6506.1513.2520.5527.1536.6

542.4

Insti-tutiononly2

92.092.3

110.3138.0185.5207.5209.5198.5246.9299.3

250.1259.7263.7263.4263.6269.7274.0278.8285.2288.1292.0299.3

296.3

Savingsdeposits,including

moneymarketdeposit

accounts(MMDAs)

937.4926.3893.7923.8

1,045.01,187.31,219.21,149.61,137.11,270.8

1,153.81,165.11,180.21,190.11,195.61,204.11,211.01,222.71,231.51,246.31,258.81,270.8

1,282.2

Smalldenom-inationtime

depos-its3

921.01,037.11,151.41,172.81,065.4

868.3782.6817.5933.7944.7

934.3934.1930.8929.5928.4928.8930.5934.2937.5941.0943.5944.7

945.5

Largedenom-ination

time de-posits3

467.0518.3541.5480.9416.5353.4333.4363.1419.8499.8

420.9426.3432.5435.4442.5448.9455.2459.3466.8481.6487.9499.8

510.6

Over-nightandterm

repur-chaseagree-ments(RPs)(net)

172.6189.0158.0138.8119.5128.6158.6182.9182.1192.5

187.2188.9188.0188.9202.7195.3194.4192.0193.9195.6194.7192.5

195.2

Over-nightandtermEuro-dollars(net)

108.2117.095.288.779.367.066.482.191.0

110.6

94.295.494.096.597.097.897.998.4

101.2106.6106.3110.6

113.8

Sav-ings

bonds

100.6109.4117.5126.0137.9156.6171.5180.3184.8

f 187.0

185.0185.0185.2185.6186.0186.4186.8187.2187.3187.3187.1

r 187.0

Short-term

Treas-ury

securi-ties

249.5266.8324.0334.2329.1345.9342.8386.9475.5' 445.6

466.0445.0459.6461.4432.6443.4445.8452.9461.1449.3459.9

P 445.6

Bank-ers'ac-

cept-ances

44.540.240.736.123.920.914.914.212.0

J-12.0

11.810.39.8

10.310.811.411.411.311.511.611.9

/>12.0

Com-mer-cial

paper

274.4336.9346.5355.3335.2365.0385.6402.4437.1

P 492.1

437.2442.3445.1461.0473.4470.9473.1478.6482.4479.5481.9

f 492.1

1 Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of less than $50,000. NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not2 Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more. shown here.3 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less S** Note, p. 26.

than #100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE[Averages of daily figures1; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

1987- Dec1988- Dee1989- Dec1990- Dec1991- Dec1992- Dec . .1993: Dec1994: Dec1995: Dec „1996: Dec

1996- JanFebMar

May

July

SeptOct .Nov ....Dec

1997- Jan*

Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements

Reserves of depository institutions

Total

38,86640,41040,50841,78045,54754,36760,51959,36456,36450,167

55,60654,84855,72755,18254,22754,11253,19752,26951,35150,13549,87550,167

49,403

Non-borrowed

38,08938,69440,24241,45545,35554,24360,43759,15656,10650,012

55,56854,81355,70655,09154,10053,72652,82951,93550,98349,84849,66150,012

49,358

Non-borrowed

plusextended

credit

38,57239,93840,26241,47845,35654,24460,43759,15656,10650,012

55,56854,81355,70655,09154,10053,72652,82951,93550,98349,84849,66150,012

49,358

Required

37,82039,36239,58540,11644,56953,21259,45658,19655,08648,743

54,12153,99754,59054,06253,36852,96252,13251,30850,31349,14248,84048,743

48,180

Monetarybase

239,784256,920267,723293,332317,502351,244386,877418,723

'435,008'452,920

'434,449'433,557'436,855'436,984'437,885'439,692'442,244'444,160'445,988'447,124'449,466'452,920

454,049

Borrowings of depository institu-tions from the Federal

Reserve (NSA)

Total

7771,716

26532619212482

209257155

38352191

127386368334368287214155

45

Seasonal

931308476381831

1004068

77

1034

10519228430930621210968

19

Extendedcredit

4831,244

2023110000

000000000000

01 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27


BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKSTotal commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.8 percent in January; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.5percent. (Series revised.)

- ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

4,0003,6003,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

800

400

200

1601989 1990 1991

U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1992

OTHER SECURITIES

1993 1994

BltUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

4,0003,6003,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1995 1996

1 1 1 1 1 1 r i 1 1 1 160

1,200

800

400

200

1997

COUNCll OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted1]

Period

1988- Decr

1989- Decr ...1990- Dec' ...1991: Decr

1992: Dec' : .1993: Dec'1994- Decr

1995- Dec1"1996: Decr

1996: Jan'Febr

Marr

Aprr

Mayr

June r . , , , . . . , ;JulyAugr

SepfOcf ....NoVDecr

1997: Jan

Totalbankcredit

2,435.42,609.12,754.62,859.12,958.53,118.33,332.53,612.43,771.4

3,628.43,645.63,643.53,667.63,664.73,671.43,682.53,674.53,693.13,719.53,744.03,771.4

3,806.9

Securities in bank credit

Totalsecurities

562.2585.1634.9745.8843.0917.6951.9998.6992.6

989.91,000.1

988.5990.4990.9982.1982.1972.1968.9970.3982.1992.6

1,006.0

TJ.S.Govern-

mentsecurities

367.4401.0457.0566.1666.2732.7730.6709.5707.4

702.1710.9703.3707.8711.6707.5707.7702.2703.4703.9707.9707.4

706.3

Othersecurities

194.9'- 184.2

177.9179.7176.8184.9221.2289.1285.2

287.8289.2285.2282.6279.3274.5274.5269.9265.5266.5274.2285.2

299.7

Loans and leases in bank credit

Total loansand

leases2

1,873.22,024.02,119.72,113.22,115.52,200.72,380.62,613.82,778.9

2,638.42,645.52,655.02,677.22,673.72,689.32,700.32,702.42,724.32,749.22,761.92,778.9

2,801.0

Commer-cial and

industrial

607.6638.8641.1619.6596.2586.6646.1717.3787.1

721.8724.2724.9732.1735.1738.9744.7746.9761.0770.7776.4787.1

791.0

Real estate

Total

676.0771.2857.3881.6902.5942.6

1,004.61,079.61,125.8

1,086.01,090.91,096.11,100.11,103.21,105.61,105.21,109.41,112.21,115.91,120.61,125.8

1,131.7

Revolvinghomeequity

40.050.262.269.673.473.075.379.185.3

79.479.779.780.179.779.279.980.581.283.284.285.3

85.8

Other

636.0721.0795.0812.1829.1869.5929.3

1,000.51,040.5

1,006.51,011.21,016.41,020.01,023.41,026.41,025.31,028.91,030.91,032.71,036.51,040.5

1,045.9

Consumer

356.3376.7382.1365.4357.9390.1451.2492.8519.1

497.5497.4500.8504.7502.7506.9510.7512.8515.8518.2518.9519.1

521.1

Securny

40.741.545.455.465.690.379.185.679.0

88.187.685.385.077.379.878.172.373.876.677.479.0

82.7

Other

192.6195.7193.9191.3193.3191.3199.7238.5267.9

245.1245.4247.9255.3255.5258.0261.6261.0261.5267.7268.6267.9

274.51 Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically char-

tered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investmentcompanies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. -Data are ad-justed for breaks caused by reclassificationa of assets and liabilities.

2 Excludes Federal fdnds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans tocommercial banks in the United States,

Note.—Series revised to reflect annual seasonal adjustment revisions.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

28


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATEBUSINESS


Period

19861987198819891990199119921993199419951995- I

IImIV

1996- Inmp

Sources

Total

533.4648.4851.9744.3592.6489.3599.9698.1758.9882.0754.7910.0906.4956.9995.1838.6

1,010.5

Internal1

343.4374.5408.2396.9409.1422.2438.6480.2524.9543.8517.7527.5559.1571.0578.4585.7592.9

External

Total

190.0273.9443.7347.4183.567.1

161.3.217.9234.0338.2237.0382.5347.3385.9416.7252.9417.6

Credit market funds

Total

151.373.295.559.047.0

-34.861.167.876.8

131.3170.4197.047.7

110.154.6

142.4117.5

Securitiesand mort-

gages

58.929.1-.2

-35.9-26.6

75.967.184.3

-34.06.0

-10.844.538628.6

-30.579.6

-34.4

Loans andshort-term

paper

92.444.195.794.973.6

-110.7-6.0

-16.5110.8125.3181.2152.586.381.585.162.8

151.9

Other 2

38.7200.8348.1288.4136.5101.9100.1150.1157.3206.866.6

185.5299.7275.8362.2110.5300.1

Uses

Total

519.4592.0756.2632.9509.8500.7554.4787.9761.7889.0726.4916.8881.6

1,031.1973.4928.2980.6

Capitalexpendi-tures3

347.3357.4373.3399.4394.5370.9386.9430.6483.6546.6552.9534.1572.9526.5523.4534.7579.8

Increase infinancialassets

172.1234.6382.9233.5115.3129.8167.5357.3278.1342.4173.5382.7308.7504.6450.0393.5400.8

Discrep-ancy

(sourcesless

uses)

14.056.595.7

111.482.9

-11.445.6

-89.8-2.9-7.028.4-6.824.8

-74.421.7

-89.629.8

1 Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends phis consumption of fixedcapita], foreign earnings retained abroad, and inventory valuation adjustment.

2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fond liabilities, and direct foreign investmentin the U.S.

3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and access rights fromU.S. Government

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.

CONSUMER CREDIT[Billions of dollars; seasonally Mjusted)

Period

1987- Dec1988- Dec3

1989- Dec . ..1990- Dec1991- Dec1992- Dec1993- Dec1994- Dec1995- Dec1996- DecP1996- Jan

PebMarAprMay

July'Aug'Sept'Oct'NoV"Dec^

Consumer credit outstanding (end of period)

Total

671.7729.9781.9796.4781.1784.9844.1966.5

1,103.31,195.4

••1,111.1'1,122.1'1,133.3'1,141.8'1,148.31,155.11,169.11,177.51,178.61,185.41,190.51,195.4

Automobile

266.1285.5291.0282.4259.3257.1279.8317.2350.8377.3352.9355.8358.6361.2362.3367.7373.6373.5374.5376.8376.7377.3

Revolving

153.3174.5198.6223.3245.8257.8287.0339.3413.9462.8419.0425.7431.3437.9443.5445.4451.0454.3453.7456.4460.4462.8

Other2

252.4269.9292.3290.7276.1269.9277.3309.9338.6355.3

'339.1'340.6'343.4'342.8'345.2341.9344.5349.7350.4352.3353.5355.3

Net change in consumer credit outstanding1

Total

32.858.2(4)

14.5-15.3

3.859.2

122.4136.892.1'7.8

'11.0'11.2'8.5'6.56.8

14.08.41.16.85.14.9

Automobile

18.919.4(*)

-8.6-23.1-2.222.737.433.626.52.12.92.82.61.15.45.9-.11.02.3-.1

.6

Revolving

17.321.2(4)

24.722.512.029.252.374.648.95.16.75.66.65.61.95.63.3-.62.74.02.4

Other2

-3.317.5(*)

-1.6-14.6-6.2

7.432.628.716.7'.5

'1.5'2.8

•"-.6'-.3-.62.65.2.7

1.91.21.8

1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preced-ing month.

2 Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc., phis non-installment credit.

3 Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December1988 and subsequent months.

4 Because of breaks in series, net change not available.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

29


INTEREST BATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rotes fell in February.

PERCENT PER ANNUM

14

PERCENT PER ANNUM

14

\

'•— -

J

L I I I t 1 1 t 1 1 1

1989

^^^\

''""':.

1990

•v ~V

n

"NDISC

R/>

CORPORATE Aaa BONOS(MOODY'S)

/ '^[-• — x y _/

~r\ -DUNTTE

RESERVEBANK OF

NEW YORK

1 1 1 I I I | | | ( I I i I I 1 I I I I I I

1991 1992

N

1993

/

TREASURY ,BIOS /

->r/r1

1994

V *• N

—•—...

J

,,,,,11995

/ v \ j,/

l n ,M

1996

">

i l l l l l l l l l^

1997

SOURCE: SEE IABU BEICW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum)

Period

19871988198919901991199219931994199519961996- Peb .

JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1997- JanFeb

Week ended:1997: Peb 8

1522

Mar 1

U.S. Treasniy secority yields

3-monthbills (new is-

i sues1)

5.826.698.127.515.423.453.024.295.515.024.874.964.995.025.115.175.095.155.015.034.875.055.00

5.005.024.985.01

Constant maturities2

3-year

7.688.268.558.266.825.304.446.276.255.995.145.796.116.276.496.456.216.416.085.825.916.166.03

6.035.995.966.15

10-year

8.398.858.498.557.867.015.877.096.576.445.816.276.516.746.916.876.646.836.536.206.306.586.42

6.466.376.336.50

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard& Poor's) *

7.737.767.247.256.896.415.636.195.955.755.455.825.935.986.035.915.725.865.715.595.625.725.63

5.685.625.575.66

CorporateAaa bonds(Mood/s)

9.389.719.269.328.778.147.227.977.597.376.997.357.507.627.717.657.467.667.397.107.207.427.31

7.347.267.237.38

Primecommercial

paper,6 months '

6.857.688.807.955.853.803.304.935.935.424.995.265.385.425.575.675.515.665.455.405.445.485.42

5.445.415.395.43

Discount rate(N.Y. F.B.

Bank)'

5.666.206.936.985.453.253.003.605.215.02

5.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.00

5.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.00

Prime ratecharged by

banks4

8.219.32

10.8710.018.466.256.007.158.838.27

8.50-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.25

8.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.25

New-homemortgage

yields(PHFB)5

9.319.19

10.1310.059.328.247.207.497.877.807.207.497.767.808.058.018.087.987.957.807.797.81

1 Bank-discount basis.2 Yields on the more actively traded issues artiste! to constant maturities by the Treasury

Department3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures,4 Average effective rate Tor year; opening and dosing rate for month and week.

5 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees andcharges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,Federal Housing Finance ftoanl, Moody*s Inventors Service, and Standard & Poor'sCorporation.

30


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices rose in February.

INDEX, DEC. 31,1945-50 (RATIO SOME) INDEX, DEC. 31,1965-50 (RATIO SCALE)

400380360340320300280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

/

ft/

*— s^S/I

/^/

^-*<^~^

s—s — -1

y i^/\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \

1989

f^/\ /V

\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \

19901 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1991

r-^>x— -Sa

1 1 1 t 1 1 1 1 M

1992

r \DMPOS1TE STOC

(NYS1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1

1993

/^\— ~X~~-N<

K PRICE INDEX

=)

M ! ! 1 1 H t ' '

19941 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1995

/

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11996

1 M U f i l l )

1997PERCENT20

400380360340320

300280

260

240

220

200

180

160

15

10

5

0

PERCENT20

EARNNGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STjOOS

i i i _l I L. l I I I I I

1989 1990 1991 1992

SOURCES: NEVMOIK STOCK EXCHANGE AMI SIAMWiD & POOR'S CORPORATION

I I 1_

1993

_| 1 1_ _l I L. -1 I 1_

15

10

5

01994 1995 1996 1997

COJHO. Of ECONOMIC AIWSBiS

Period

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996

1996- FebMar

May

Juhr

SeptOctNOTDec

1997: JanFeb

Week ended:1997' Feb 8

15 ..22

Mar 1

Common stock prices *

New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965=50,except as noted)2

Composite

161.70149.91180.02183.46206.33229.01249.58254.12291.15358.17

346.46346.73347.50354.84358.32345.52354.59360.96373.54388.75391.61

403.58418.57

411.65418.84423.69421.11

Industrial

195.31180.95216.23225.78258.14284.62299.99315.25367.34453.98435.92439.56441.99452.63458.30438.58449.41459.69473.98490.60494.38509.64524.30

517.03524.19529.85527.23

Transpor-tation

140.39134.12175.28158.62173.99201.09242.49247.29269.41327.33

315.29324.76326.42334.66331.57316.66321.61323.12332.93348.32352.28359.40364.15

364.25363.27364.92364.31

Utility3

148.59143.53174.87181.20185.32198.91228.90209.06220.30249.77257.80245.77244.87249.73247.20.245.31244.74242.25249.61258.85257.09263.91271.36

267.41272.95273.71271.83

Finance

146.48127.26151.88133 .26150.82179.26216.42209.73238.45303.89

290.97290.45287.92290.43294.42287.89302.95308.16324.42345.30350.01

361.45388.75

377.62389.26396.87392.87

Dow-Jonesindustrialaverage4

2,275.992,060.822,508.912,678.942,929.333,284.293,522.063,793.774,493.765,742.89

5,518.735,612.245,579.865,616.715,671.515,496.265,685.505,804.015,996.216,318.366,435.87

6,707.036,917.48

6,803.086,927.546,986.656,966.48

Standard &Poor's com-posite index

(1941-43=10) 5

286.83265.79322.84334.59376.18415.74451.41460.33541.64670.83

649.54647.07647.17661.23668.50644.07662.68674.88701.46735.67743.25

766.22798.39

784.80799.62808.34802.79

Common stock yields(percent)6

Dividend-price ratio

3.083.643.453.613.242.992.782.822.562.192.222.222.242.212.212.282.222.202.112.012.01

1.951.89

1.931.881.861.88

Earnings-price ratio

5.488.017.426.474.794.224.465.836.09

5.27

5.21

5.25

=::::::::1 Average of daily closing prices."Includes all the stocks (more than 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE.3 Dec. 31, 1965-100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility

index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. AD indexes shown here reflectthe doubling.

4 Includes 30 stocks.'Includes 500 stocks.

•Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday dosing prices. Earn-ings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones k Company, Inc.* and Standard t Poor'sCorporation.

31


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBTIn the first 4 months of fiscal 1997, there was a deficit of $46.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $36.3 billiona year earlier.

BILLO1/00

1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

0

-100

-200

-300

-400

•JS OF DOLLARS BIIHONSOFCX

RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS -"

_ . j / _---""""*"

^^

** *" ^^^"^

-.--"" ^-— -*"*"'

A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 KV N

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT ( J

^____^, — -" .

" •— _ ^—-— — ' '

^~-~ -^——^~^—-^~^^

/I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1- 1 1 KV 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ^

^ INCUDES ct+-BUDGer AND OR BUDGET ITCMS.SOUIiCKDB»lm*B^Of «TCASlWA^CC«1CEOfMANAGtMe^T>^ IDBUDCET Council OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

DLLARS1700

1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

0

-100

-200

-300

-400

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period

1978197919801981 ..1982198319841985198619871988198919901991 .19921993199419951996'1997 (estimates)Cumulative total, first 4

months: J

Fiscal year 1996 ...Fiscal year 1997 ...

Total

Receipts

399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

'734.2'769.3'854.4'909.3'991.2

'1,032.0'1,055.0'1,091.3'1,154.4'1,258.6'1,351.81,453.11,505.4

467.1496.7

Outlays

458.7504.0590.9678.2745.8808.4

'851.9

'946.5'990.5

'1,004.2'1,064.5'1,143.7'1,253.2'1,324.4'1,381.7'1,409.4'1,461.7'1,515.71,560.31,631.0

503.4542.7

Surplusor

deficit

(-)

-59.2407rjq af O.O

-79.0- 128.0-207.8-185.4-212.3-221.2- 149.8- 155.2-152.5-221.2-269.4-290.4

'-255.0-203.1-163.9-107.3-125.6

-36.3-46.0

On-budget

Receipts

314.2365.3403.9469.1474.3453.2500.4

'548.0'569.0'641.0'667.8'727.5'750.3'761.2'788.9'842.5'923.6

'1,000.81,085.61,116.5

357.1377.0

Outlays

369.1404.1476.6543.1594.4661.3

'686.1'769.7'807.0'810.3'861.8'932.8

'1,028.11,082.71,129.3

'1,142.8'1,182.4'1,227.11,259.91,316.0

413.7450.6

Surplusor

deficit(-)

-54.9-38.7-72.7-74.0

-120.1-208.0-185.7-221.7-238.0-169.3-194.0-205.2-277.8-321.6-340.5

'-300.4-258.8-226.3-174.3-199.5

-56.6-73.6

Off-budget

Receipts

85.498.0

113.2130.2143.5147.3166.1186.2200.2213.4241.5263.7281.7293.9302.4311.9335.0351.1367.5388.9

110.0119.7

Outlays

89.7100.0114.3135.2151.4147.1165.8176.8183.5193.8202.7210.9225.1241.7252.3266.6279.4288.7300.5315.0

89.792.1

Surplusor

deficit(-)

-4.3-2.0-1.1-5.0-7.9

.2

.39.4

16.719.638.852.856.652.250.145.355.762.467.073.9

20.327.6

Federal debt (end ofperiod)

GrossFederal

776.6829.5909.1994.8

1,137.31,371.71,564.71,817.52,120.62,346.12,601.32,868.03,206.63,598.54,002.14,351.44,643.7

'4,921.05,181.95,453.7

4,937.75,271.3

Held bythe public

607.1640.3709.8785.3919.8

1,131.61,300.5

1,499.91,736.71,888.72,050.82,189.92,410.72,688.12,998.83,247.53,432.1

'3,603.43,733.03,875.8

3,631.93,764.9

1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget oftte United States Government, fiscal Year

1998, issued February 6, 1997.

Sources: Department of the Treasnry and Office of Management and Budget.

32


FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY .SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 4 months of fiscal 1997, receipts were $29.6 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $39.3billion higher.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILUONS OF DOLLARS/oo

500

400

0

RECEIPTS^

CORPORATIONINCOME TAXES

C

1 1 I I I

_. 700

— •===- -' 500

HI \ , 400SOCIAL INSURANCE

1 AXES AND CON IkiBUIKJNi 300

, OTHER-RECEIPTS , ( ^

1x400

300200

CXJTIAYS-"

^^

~~~~~~~

_—""""'****— —

X| 1 I I I I 1 1 t 1 K

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

>NOUDESt>4*JDGETANDOFHUDGErnEMS. RSCALYEARS5OUBKD6WnMB«OFTWlTiaWUIflrANDa^ GOUNOL OF ECONOMIC AEMSBtS

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

500

300

200

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period

197819791980 .,1981198219831984 .. ..

198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996 '1997 (estimates)

Cumulative total, first 4 months: x

Fiscal year 1996Fiscal year 1997

On-budget and off-budget receipts

Total

399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

••734.2'769.3'854.4' 909.3'991.2

••1,032.0••1,055.0••1,091.3-1,154.4••1,258.6•-1,351.81,453.11,505.4

467.1496.7

Individ-ual in-cometaxes

181.0217.8244.1285.9297.7288.9298.4

334.5349.0392.6401.2445.7466.9467.8476.0509.7543.1590.2656.4672.7

230.7246.5

Cor-pora-tion

incometaxes

60.065.764.661.149.237.056.9

61.363.183.994.5

103.393.598.1

100.3117.5140.4157.0171.8176.2

47.147.0

Socialinsur-ancetaxesand

contri-butions

121.0138.915T.8182.7201.5209.0239.4

265.2283.9303.3334.3359.4380.0396.0413.7428.3461.5484.5509.4535.8

150.3165.5

Otter

37.740.850.669.569.365.671.8

'73.1'73.3'74.6'79.3'82.8'91.5'93.1

'101.4'98.9

'113.7'120.1115.4120.8

39.137.7

On-budget and off-budget outlays

Total

458.7504.0590.9678.2745.8808.4

'851.9

'946.5: '990.5'1,004.2'1,064.5'1,143.7'1,253.2'1,324.41,381.7

'1,409.4'1,461.7'1,515.71,560.31,631.0

503.4542.7

National defense

Total

104.51163134.0157.5185.3209.9227.4

252.7273.4282.0290.4303.6299.3273.3298.4291.1281.6272.1265.7267.2

84.892.4

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

102.3113.6130.9153.9180.7204.4220.9

245.2265.5274.0281.9294.9289.8262.4286.9278.6268.6

'259.4253.2254.3

80.588.0

Inter-nation-

alaffaire

7.57.5

12.713.112.311.815.9

16.214.211.610.59.6

13.815.916.117.217.116.413.514.8

4.27.7

'Health

18.520.523.226.927.428.630.4

33.535.940.044,548.457.771.289.599.4

107.1'115.4119.4127.6

37.241.8

Medi-care

22.826.532.139.146.652.657.5

65.870.275.178.985.098.1

104.5119.0130.6144.7159.9174.2194.3

55.664.0

Ineomesecurity

61.566.4

'86.699.7

107.7122.6112.7

128.2119.8123.3

'129.4'136.1'147.1'170.3'197.0207.3

'214.1'220.5226.0238.9

69.474.7

.Socialsecurity

93.9104.1118.5139.6156.0170.7178.2

188.6198.8207.4219.3232.5248.6269.0287.6304.6319.6335.8349.7367.7

113.2118.7

Netinter-est

35.542.652.568.885.089.8

111.1

129.5136.0138.7151.8169.3184.2194.5199.4198.8203.0232.2241.1247.4

80.382.7

Other

114.7120.2

'131.3133.5125.4

'122.2118.6

'131.9'142.3'126.1'139.7'159.3'204.3'225.7'174.7'160.4'174.5,'163.4

170.7173.2

58.860.6

*Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.

NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal YearISSS, issued February 6, 19ST.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the third quarter of 1996, Federal receipts rose $6.3 billion (annual rate) and Federal current expenditures rose$0.3 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal current expenditures rose $21.0 billion;receipts data are incomplete.

BltUONS OF DOOMS RILUONS Of DOLLARS

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

5EASONAUY ADJUSTS) A»«Wa HOES

•

CURRENT EXPENDITURES

-

-

i • i

-

~\.

i i i1982

^ '

«*--*

i i i1983

--"*

^^

— -— x

I 1 11984

-*

•N

1 I l1985

C

—-_,/"

I'M 1

1986

^ — **

s^

JRRENTS

s —

1 1 11987

r--'

RECEIPTS

JRPUISO

\_|

^_

1 1 1

1988

.

R DEFICIT

~ -.

i l l1989

,.-">

^-

-I

. ^

i i I

1990

f

— . •

^^v,

1 1 11991

^-~

-^/~

" —I I I1992

_-•"

^

^~^

i i I1993

/"

•**-

i i i1994

—/— "

*-

i i i1995

----

S~

-

-

-

-

-

^~

i i i

1996

1,800

1,600

1,400

J.200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

SOURCE CBWnMBJT OF CQMMSCS COUNO. Of ECONOMIC

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally actfusted annual rates]

Period

Calendar yean1990199119921993199419951996'

1991: IV1992- IV

1993: IIIHIIV .. ..

1994- IninIV

1995- IifmIV . ..

1996- Inm • . .IVr

Federal Government receipts

Total

1,129.81,149.01,198.51,275.31,377.01,478.4

1,160.91,230.5

1,225.21,271.31,280.31,324.4

1,321.91,382.81,387.11,416.3

1,449.31,483121,486.61,494.7

1,523.11,575.61,581.9

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

485.7476.9490.8523.6561.4614.9673.2

479.0510.0

501.0521.0529.1543.4

539.3571.3560.4574.5

594.6624.4617.3623.3

639.6681.4680.2691.5

Cor-porateprofitstax ac-cruals

118.0109.8118.6137.5164.4184.3

111.1123.7

127.5136.5133.7152.2

144.3162.2171.3180.0

183.1180.7189.1184.3

196.4199.0196.5

Indirectbusinesstax andnontaxaccruals

65.179.781.988.292.691.290.5

82.886.5

84.387.587.293.7

92.89i:393.393.2

91.793.588.491.3

84.483.285.7

108.7

Contri-butions

for, socialinsur-ance

461.1482.6507.1526.0558.6588.0

. 615.2

488.1510.3

512.4526.2530.3535.1

545.5558.1562.1568.6

579.9• 584.6

591.8595.9

602.6612.0619.4626.8

Federal Government current expenditures

Total

1,284.51,345.01,479.41,530.91,567.31,640.11,701.7

1,399.81,509.5

1,509.71,521.51,534.71,557.7

1,534.61,552.51,575.71,606.4

1,621.91,644.31,645.01,649.3

1,678.31,702.31,702.61,723.6

Con-sump-tion

expen-di-

tures

426.6445.9451.0451.9450.7453.8458.8

440.5457.7

451.3448.5453.5454.3

446.7445.1455.7455.3

454.6455:6453.6451.4

453.6463.5461.3456.8

Trans-fer

pay-,ments

513.3522.2625.1659.1682.9719.9764.1

565.8643.3

645.9654.7660.8675.0

670.9676.4683.5700.9

708.3716.2724.2730.9

756.2757.9762.9779.6

Grants-in-aid

toStateandlocal

govern-1

ments

132.4153.4172.2185.7195.9206.1214.6

162.7176.3

177.3181.5187.2197,0

192.2197.5196.9196.9

205.8211.3203.8203.3

207.6219.3214.5216.8

Netinterest

paid

179.9192.7195.8192.3201.4229.1233.3

200.0191.8

190.5193.2192.7192.8

188.3198.3204.3214.8

220.9229.3232.3233.9

230.5230.8233.7238.3

Subsi-dies lesscurrentsurplus

ofGovern-

mententer-prises

32.430.835.141.836.431.330.9

30.940.3

44.743.640.538.6

36.535.335.238.5

32.332.031.129.9

30.430.830.332.1

Less:Wageaccru-als less

dis-burse-ments

0.1

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

Currentsurplus

ordeficit(-),

nationalincome

andproductaccounts

-154.7-196.0-280.9-255.6-190.2-161.7

-238.8-279.0

-284.5-250.2-254.4-233.3

-212.7-169.6-188.5-190.1

-172.6-161.1-158.5-154.5

-155.2-126.7-120.8


34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

Period

198719881989 . .1990199119921993199419951996i>

1995- Dec

1996- JanFdjMar

May

July

SeptOct .NovDec

1997: Jan*

Industrial production (1992=100; seasonally adjusted)

UnitedStates

93.197.399.098.996.9

100.0103.4108.6112.1

'115.2

112.8

112.4113.8113.2114.3114.8115.5115.5115.8116.0

'116.2'117.1

117.7

117.7

Canada

101.6106.9106.8103.298.9

100.0104.5111.8115.6117.7

115.2

115.9116.0

'115.5'116.1'116.3'116.8'118.6'118.8'119.0'119.2'120.5

119.2

Japan

86.494.599.9

104.2106.1100.095.897.0

100.2102.9

101.9

102.3104.498.1

101.2103.599.3

103.7101.5102.8106.8104.9105.4

110.6

France

93.097.3

100.9102.4101.1100.096.299.8

101.4

101.0

100.7100.9101.6101.1101.9101.3103.8103.8102.3101.5102.1

Ger-many

86.489.894.098.9

101.7100.092.595.3

'96.596.5

95.9

95.994.396.095.596.396.9

'97.6'97.6'96.6'96.297.598.2

Italy

92.497.9

100.9101.1100.2100.097.6

102.6108.2106.4

112.6

107.0106.5108.1105.2105.4108.4105.3105.9106.3105.6

'106.0103.6

UnitedKingdom

97.4102.1104.3104.0100.1100.0102.2107.3110.1111.3

111.0

110.2110.6111.3110.5111.7110.8111.5110.9111.6

'111.7'112.4

113.1

Consumer prices (1982-84-100; NSA)

UnitedStates'

113.6118.3124.0130.7136.2140.3144.5148.2152.4156.9

153.5

154.4154.9155.7156.3156.6156.7157.0157.3157.8158.3158.6158.6

159.1

Canada

118.4123.2129.3135.5143.1145.2147.9148.2151.4153.7

151.8

152.2152,4153.0153.4153.9153.7153.7153.9154.1154.4155.1155.1

155.4

Japan

104.8105.6108.1111.4115.0116.9118.4119.3119.1119.3

118.9

118.8118.5118.8119.5119.7119.4119.3119.1119.6119.9119.5119.6

119.5

France

120.9124.2128.6133.0137.2140.6143.5145.9148.4151.5

149.6

149.9150.4151.3151.6151.9151.7151.5151.1151.6152.0151.9152.1

152.5

Ger-many

104.9106.3109.2112.2116.2120.9125.2128.6130.8132.6

131.4

131.5132.2132.2132.3132.6132.8133.2133.1133.0133.0132.9133.2

133.9

Italy

134.4141.1150.4159.5169.8178.8186.3193.6204.0212.0

208.7

209.0209.6210.2211.4212.2212.7212.2212.4213.1213.3213.9214.1

214.5

UnitedKingdom

119.7125.6135.4148.2156.9162.7165.3169.3175.2179.4

177.1

176.5177.3178.0179.3179.6179.8179.1179.9180.7180.7180.8181.4

181.4J Data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic

Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis).

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICESfStJ£ei}8 of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19871988198919901991199219931994199519961-

1995: Dec

1996: JonFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov' ....Dec*

Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value)

BOPbasis

250.2320.2362.1389.3416.9440.4456.8502.5575.9611.7

50.1

48.750.950.550.751.451.048.851.150.352.953.352.2

f h«si (hv enA t 11uensus oasis toy ena-use category;

Total,Censusbasis2

254.1322.4363.8393.6421.74485465.1512.6584.7624.8

50.9

49.351.751.451.652.551.950.252.551.653.954.653.5

Foods,feeds,andbev-

"""*""

24.332.337.235.135.740.340.641.950.555.5

4.5

4.74.54.94.74.74.54.74.74.44.55.04.4

In-dus-trialsup-

m?mate-rials

66.785.199.3

104.4109.7109.1111.8121.4146.3147.3

12.1

11.912.212.512.712.512.311.412.212.012.712.212.4

Cap-ital

goodsexceptauto-mo-tive

86.2109.2138.8152.7166.7175.9181.7205.2233.0252.7

21.2

19.921.320.821.121.120.720.021.020.122.422.322.1

Auto-mo-tive

vehi-cles,partsanden-

gines

24.629.334.837.440.047.052.457.661.864.5

5.2

5.25.44.94.95.45.55.25.46.15.25.85.5

Con-sumergoods(non-food)ex-ceptauto-mo-tive

17.723.136.443.345.951.454.760.064.470.2

5.5

5.55.85.75.85.95.95.55.85.96.26.16.0

Goods: Imports (customs value)

BOPbasis

409.84475477.4498.3491.0536.5589.4668.6749.4799.3

62.7

64.263.764.966.368.265.666.367.567.867.067.668.7

C hjuu thv A. t \Census Dams (Dy end-use category;

Total,Censusbasis3

4065441.04735495.3488.5532.7580.7663.3743.4791.4

62.5

63.963.363.764.766.964.765.866.767.566.667.368.5

Foods,feeds,andbev-

erages

24.824.825.126.626.527.627.931.033.235.7

2.7

2.82.83.03.03.02.92.93.03.03.03.03.2

In-dus-trialsup-pliesand

mate-rials

111.0118.3132.3143.2131.6138.6145.6162.0180.7199.3

14.8

15.614.715.316.617.016.317.016.917.417.516.817.7

Cap-ital

goodsexceptauto-mo-tive

84.5101.4113.3116.4120.7134.3152.4184.4221.4229.0

19.3

19.519.419.518.819.018.618.618.818.918.719.119.6

Auto-mo-tive

vehi-cles,partsanden-

gines

85.287.786.187.385.791.8

102.4118.3124.8130.1

10.3

10.610.610.010.511.510.811.111.611.210.311.310.6

Con-sumergoods(non-food)exceptauto-mo-tive

88.795.9

102.9105.7108.0122.7134.0146.3160.0171.1

13.2

13.513.713.713.514.213.913.914.414.814.914.815.3

Services(BOP basis)

Ex-ports

98.3110.9127.0147.5163.8177.3186.1195.8210.6223.9

18.0

17.918.318.818.418.718.818.518.618.518.819519.2

Im-ports

91.799.5

103.5118.8119.6119.5125.5134.11425150.5

11.8

12.012.312.312.412.612.512.712.712.512.812.912.9

Balance of trade{exports mums imports)

Goods,Censusbasis

-152.1-118.5— 109.4-101.7-66.7-84.5

-115.6-150.6-158.7-166.6

-11.6

-14.5-11.6-12.3-13.1-14.4-12.9-15.6-14.3-15.9-12.7-12.7-15.0

Wtt* iMiaiaWJr D8818

Goods

-159.6-127.0

1155— 109.0-74.1— 96.1

-132.6-166.1- 173.4-187.6

-12.6

-15.5— 12.8-14.4-15.6-16.8-14.6-17.5-16.4-17.5-14.1-14.3-16.6

Serv-ices

6.611.423.528.744.257.860.661.768.473.4

6.2

5.96.06.66.16.16.35.75.96.16.16.36.3

Goodsand

services

- 152.9- 115.5

— 91.8-80.3-29.9-38.3-72.0

-104.4- 105.1- 114.2

-6.4

-9.6-6.8-7.9-9.5

-10.7-8.4

-11.8-10.5-11.4-8.0-7.9

-10.3

1 Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988.2 Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately.

NOTE,—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis, BOP datashown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis).

35


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the third quarter of 1996, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $51.6 billion, from $47.0 billion in the secondquarter. The current account deficit rose to $48.0 billion, from $40.2 billion in the second quarter.

HWONSOFDOUARS* BIlUONSOFDCXiARS'

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

-35

-40

-45 -

-50

-55

-40

- -45

-50

-55

•SEASONAUY ADJUSTEDSOUBCE DBWtlMaffCf COMMBKE OOUNCt Of ECONOMIC ACMSBS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (— )]

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995

1994: IninIV

1995- InmIV

1996: IIIvi'

Goods1

Exports

223,344,250,208320,230362,120389,307416,913440,352456,832502,463575,940

118,462122,909127,237133,855

138,551142,983144,984149,422

150,028153,095149,937

Imports

-368,425-409,765-447,189-477,365-498,337-490,981-536,458-589,441-668,584-749,364

-155,301-163,993-171,652-177,638- 183,474-190,910-187,532-187,448

-192,758-200,091-201,530

Netbalance

-145,081- 159,557-126,959-115,245- 109,030-74,068-96,106

-132,609-166,121-173,424

-36,839-41,084-44,415

43783

-44,923-47,927-42,548-38,026

-42,730-46,996-51,593

Services

Netmilitarytrans-

ac-tions23

5181-3,844-6,320-6,749-7,599-5,274-1,448

8801,9633,585

-38367

1,171463

628859

1,120978

489725710

Nettraveland

trans-porta-tion

receipts

-8,484- 7,613-2,591

4,0438,002

17,03220,48420,02616,71118,361

4,0164,2213,7584,717

3,7703,8345,0875,670

5,3625,3495,077

Otherserv-ices,net

18,60918,09720,35226,19228,29132,44038,80539,66543,06846,415

10,15910,61411,03911,257

11,01011,41012,00611,987

12,65212,34511,972

Balanceon

goodsand

services

- 140,136- 152,918- 115,518-91,758-80,336-29,872-38,264-72,039- 104,379- 105,064

-22,702-25,882-28,447-27,346

-29,515-31,824-24,335-19,391

-24,227-28,577-33,834

Investment income

Receiptson U.S.assetsabroad

91,976100,767129,070152,517160,300137,003119,046119,900141,704182,659

31,84133,28737,21239,368

44,10046,77945,26946,513

47,49748,01048,303

Paymentson foreignassets in

TJ.S.

-79,095-91,302

-115,722-138,639- 139,402-121,159- 107,851-110,158-145,863-190,674

-30,678-33,923-38,801-42,462

-45,000-47,641-49,630-48,403

-47,235-50,274-53,008

Net

12,8819,465

13,34813,87820,89715,84411,1959,742

-4,159-8,016

1,163-636

-1,589-3,094

-900-862

-4,361-1,890

262-2,264-4,705

Balanceon goods,services,

andincome

- 127,255- 143,453-102,170-77,880-59,439- 14,028-27,069-62,297

-108,539- 113,079

-21,539-26,518-30,036-30,440

-30,415-32,686-28,696-21,281

-23,965-30,841-38,539

Unilateraltransfers,

net4

-24,833-23,939-26,266-27,696-35,219

4,510-35,514-37,640-39,866-35,075

-8,169-9,507-9,975

-12,215

-8,639-8,290-8,992-9,154

- 10,904-9,369-9,422

Balanceon

currentaccount

- 152,088-167,392-128,436- 105,575-94,657-9,518

-62,583-99,936

-148,405- 148,154

-29,708-36,025-40,011-42,655

-39,054-40,976-37,688-30,435

-34,869-40,210-47,961

1 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military.2 Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expend-

itures (imports).

3 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.* Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs.

See p. 3? for continuation of table.

36


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $32.5 billion in the third quarterof 1996, following almost no change in the second Quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S.banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $0.3 billion In the third quarter, following an increase of $1.9 billionin the second quarter.

BUQNSOFDOUARS* BILUONSOFDOUARS-

COUNCl OF ECONOMIC «M5BS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19861987198819891990199119921993199419951994: I

nraIV

1995: InraIV

1996: Innip

U.S. assets[inerease/capiti

Total

-106,753-72,617

-100,087-168,744-74,011-57,881-68,622

-194,609-150,695-307,856-36,897-28,627-25,569-59,603-61,747

-108,299-39,595-98,214-68,750-50,726-54,676

TJ.S.officialreserveassets35

3129,149

-3,912-25,293-2,158

5,7633,901

-1,3795,346

-9,742-59

3,537-1652,033

-5,318-2,722-1,893

19117

-5237,489

abroad, net

Other U.S.Govern-

mentassets

-2,0221,0062,9671,2592,3072,911

-1,657-342

341-280

399491

-288-943-154-179

252-199-152-353

72

)]

U.S.privateassets

-105,044-82,771-99,141

-144,710-74,160-66,555-70,866- 192,889- 155,700-297,834-37,237-32,655-25,116-60,693-56,275

-105,39837954

-98,206-68,615-49,850-62,237

Foreign assets in the U.S., net[increase/capital inflow (+)]

Total

226,111242,983240,265218,490122,19294,241

154,285250,996285,376424,46283,23545,88983,61972,63290,995

115,421118,81699,22999,471

100,549123,999

Foreignofficialassets3

35,64845,38739,7588,503

33,91017,38940,47772,15340,253

109,75711,0369,166

19,785266

21,82237,38039,18611,36952,02113,56623,642

Otherforeignassets

190,463197,596200,507209,98788,28276,853

113,808178,843245,123314,70572,19936,72363,83472,36669,17378,04179,63087,86047,45086,983

100,357

Allocationsof specialdrawingrights

(SDKs)

Statistical discrepancy

Total (sumof the items

with signreversed)

32,729-2,974

-11,74355;83046,476

-26,843-23,080

43,55013,72431,548

-16,63018,763

-18,03929,6269,806

33,854-41,533

29,4204,148

-9,613-21,362

Of which:Seasonal

adjustmentdiscrepancy

5,105274

-6,4901,1076,519-266

-7,4071,1536,279-801

-8,699

U.S. officialreserve

assets, net9

(unadjusted,end ofperiod)

48,51145,79847,80274,60983,31677,72171,32373,44274,33585,83276,80975,73276,53274,33586,76190,06387,15285,83284,21283,45575,509

5 Consists of gold, fipecial drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserveposition in the IMF.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of theTreasury.

37


ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT. INCOME. AND SPENDING ***•

Gross Domestic Product 1Real Gross Domestic Product 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product 2Quantity and Price Indexes for GDP and Percent Changes 3Nonfmancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Real Personal Consumption Expenditures . 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits > 8Real Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Real Private Fixed Investment by Type 10Business Investment and Plans 10

EMPLOYMENT. UNEMPLOYMENT. AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Employment Cost Index—Private Industry 15Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates , , , 19Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade , , 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 21

PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 23Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods 24Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEY. CREDIT. AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures 26Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets 27Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base 27Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfmancial Corporate Business 29Consumer Credit 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields , 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt 32Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries , 35U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services 35U.S. International Transactions 36

General Notes

Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.Symbols used:

f Preliminary.••Revised.e Corrected.... Not available (also, not applicable).NSA not seasonally adjusted.

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