economic forecast, 2013-2017
DESCRIPTION
Noted economist Dr. Stephen Fuller Director, Center for Regional Analysis, GMU provides businesses with a look ahead at marketplace conditions.TRANSCRIPT
Prince William Chamber of Commerce
March 8, 2013
What Will the Washington Area’s and Prince William County’s Future
Economies Look Like?
Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional AnalysisGeorge Mason University
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140
5
10
15
20
25
1982-Q31991-Q12001-Q42009-Q2
Quarters After Trough
% C
hang
e in
GD
P
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Four Recessions
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
2013
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – USMonth-Over-Year
(000s)
Jan =+ 2.05 M
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorJan 2012 – Jan 2013
InformationFederal Govt.
Transp. & Util.Other Services
ConstructionWlse Trade
FinancialManufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.Retail Trade
Prof. & Bus. SvcsState & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 60021
-43124
61102107107109
332213
467-31
429(000s) Total = 2,016Ranked by Size in 2011
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2007
-1 3
2008
-1 3
2009
-1 3
2010
-1 3
2011
-1 3
2012
-1 3
2013
-1 3
2014
-1 3-10.0
-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2014
% Forecast > > > > >
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight Feb. 11 2013
The Impacts of Decreasing Federal Spending in the
Washington Area Economy
2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy
Local ServingActivities 34.8%
Non-LocalBusiness 12.0 %
TotalFederal 39.8%
Procurement 19.1%
Assn 1.8% Hosp. 2.1%
Int’l 3.5%O
ther
1.5
%
Other Federal 10.7 %
Health/Ed.
4.5%
Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Federal Procurement in theWashington Metro Area, 1980-2012
$ Billions
| < 80-90 = $96.5 B > | < 91-00 = $207.9 B >| < 01–10 = $563.5 B > |
TOTAL = $1,023.5 Billion
Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report
2011
$80.0 B$75.6 B
2012
Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA
20022005JanA
prJulO
ctJanA
prJulO
ctJanA
prJulO
ctJanA
prJulO
ctJanA
prJulO
ct
-20-15-10
-505
1015202530
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tot 2011 = 688,700Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
Federal Employment in theWashington Metro Area, 1950-2012
000s Eisenhower Kennedy – Johnson
Nixon - Ford
Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2
- 5
+ 74
+ 35+ 17 0 -8.6
- 37 + 24
Obama
+17.5
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Federal GovernmentWashington MSA
20022005JanA
prJulO
ctJanA
prJulO
ctJanA
prJulO
ctJanA
prJulO
ctJanA
prJulO
ct
-20-15-10
-505
1015202530
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Summary for Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, 2010-2012
• Federal Procurement Outlays declined 8.4% between FY 2010 and FY 2012.
• Federal employment has declined since peaking in July 2010, losing 8,700 jobs or 2.25%.
• Federal payroll declined by 0.6% between FY 2010 and FY 2011 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers.
The Relative Importance of Federal Spending in the Maryland-DC-Virginia Region
The Region’s Share of U.S. Population 4.7% The Region’s Share of All Federal $s 9.0% The Region’s Share of All DOD $s 15.0% Share of Total Federal Spending
Subject to Sequestration 21.0% Federal Spending as a Percent of
the Region’s GRP in 2011 39.0%
How did the recession change the
Washington Area economy?
Wash MSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery To December 2012
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
-5
-9
-14
-13
-14
-3
-45
-37
-29
0
-25
(000s)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Series1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
1
0
0
0
6
1
9
23
13
52
28Total -193 Total 132
16 Large Job MarketsJob Change: Dec 2011 – Dec 2012
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
DC DallasPhiladelphia
Houston
Boston
Miami
Atlanta
Detroit
SF-Oakland
Minneapolis
Phoenix
Seattle
Baltimore
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140(000s)
Washington + 30,200
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorDec 2011 – Dec 2012
Washington MSA
Transp. & Util.Wlse Trade
ManufacturingInformation
FinancialOther Services
ConstructionLeisure & Hosp.
Retail TradeState & Local Govt
Educ & Health SvcsFederal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30-2-1-1-1
40
22
-612
13-3
10(000s) Total = 30,200
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorNov 2012 – Dec 2012
Washington MSA
Transp. & Util.Wlse Trade
ManufacturingInformation
FinancialOther Services
ConstructionLeisure & Hosp.
Retail TradeState & Local Govt
Educ & Health SvcsFederal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 301
-20
01
0-2
00
1-1
1-2
(000s) Total = -1,300
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia, 2002-2012
2002200420062008
-40-30-20-10
0102030405060
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorDec 2011 – Dec 2012
Northern Virginia
Transp. & Util.Wlse Trade
ManufacturingInformation
FinancialOther Services
ConstructionLeisure & Hosp.
Retail TradeState & Local Govt
Educ & Health SvcsFederal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30000
-15
0-3
12
85
04
(000s) Total 20,600
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
8.6 – DC7.8 – U.S.
5.7 – SMD5.2 – MSA4.1 - NVA
Unemployment Rates in the WMSABy Sub-State Area, 2005-2012
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
The Washington Area’s Post-Federally Dependent Economy
Job Growth in the Washington AreaBy Sector, 2012-2017 (in thousands)
Sector 2012 2017 Change PercentProf. & Bus. Ser. 697.4 841.2 143.8 20.6Federal Gov’t 380.4 358.4 - 22.0 - 5.8Education/Health 380.2 419.0 38.8 10.2S & L Gov’t 309.7 321.6 11.9 3.8Hospitality 276.8 285.0 8.2 3.0Retail Trade 254.1 266.6 12.5 4.9Other Services 182.8 185.3 2.5 1.4Financial Services 150.0 154.7 4.7 3.1Construction 146.4 201.8 55.4 37.8Information Ser. 80.6 87.6 7.0 8.7Other Sectors (3) 175.0 193.2 18.2 10.4Total Jobs 3,033.4 3,314.4 281.0 9.3
Major Sources of Job Growth in theWashington Area , 2012-2017 (in thousands)
Growth Sectors 2012 2017 Change PercentProf. & Bus. Ser. 697.4 841.2 143.8 20.6Education/Health 380.2 419.0 38.8 10.2Construction 146.4 201.8 55.4 37.8Sub-Totals 1,224.0 1,462.0 238.0 19.4 % Total 40.4 44.1 84.7_ _______Totals 3,033.4 3,314.4 281.0 9.3
Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Growth in Prince William CountyBy Sector, 2012-2017 (in thousands)
Sector 2012 2017 Change PercentRetail Trade* 29.5 33.2 3.7 12.5S & L Gov’t 22.7 24.9 2.2 9.7Prof. & Bus. Ser. 20.2 27.1 6.9 27.6Education/Health 16.3 19.8 3.5 21.5Hospitality 16.2 17.8 1.6 9.8Construction 13.8 17.6 3.8 27.6Federal Gov’t 7.8 8.0 0.2 2.0Other Services 5.4 5.9 0.5 9.1Financial Services 4.4 4.9 0.5 10.8Manufacturing 4.2 4.6 0.4 8.6Information Ser. 1.5 1.8 0.3 18.8Total Jobs 142.1 165.5 23.4 16.5
Major Sources of Job Growth in Prince William County, 2012-2017 (in thousands)
Growth Sectors 2012 2017 Change PercentProf. & Bus. Ser. 20.2 27.1 6.9 33.8Education/Health 16.3 19.8 3.5 21.5Construction 13.8 17.6 3.8 27.6Sub-Totals 50.3 64.5 14.2 28.2 % Total 35.4 39.0 60.7_________PW totals 142.1 165.5 23.4 16.5Metro Totals 3,033.4 3,314.4 281.0 9.3
Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GRP Per Job in the Washington Area By Sector (in 2005 dollars)
Sector 2012 2017 % ChangeProf. & Bus. Services $134,750 $154,656 14.8%Federal Gov’t 138,361 138,566 0.1Education/Health 59,730 57,508 - 3.7S & L Gov’t 60,975 56,920 - 6.6Hospitality 42,883 42,391 - 1.1Retail Trade 60,807 64,136 5.5Other Services 70,339 69,151 - 1.7Financial Services 543,482 578,062 6.4Construction 98,824 82,490 - 16.5Information Services 349,868 468,376 33.9Other Sectors 147,903 151,120 2.2GRP per Job $130,653 $138,881 6.3
GRP Per Job in the Washington Area By Sector (in 2005 dollars)
High Job Growth 2012 2017 % ChangeProf. & Bus. Svs. (33.8%) $134,750 $154,656 14.8Education/Health (21.5%) 59,730 57,508 - 3.7Construction (27.6%) 98,824 82,490 - 16.5
Other High Value-Added SectorsInformation Services (18.8%) 349,868 468,376 33.9Financial Services (10.8%) 543,482 578,062 6.4Federal (2.0%) 138,361 138,566 0.1Average Metro Area GRP per Job $130,653 $138,881 6.3
Occupation Net New % of Total % ChangeBusiness and Financial 52,253 14.7 13.7 Computer, Math and Sci 33,630 9.4 14.2Health Care (all occup.) 31,915 9.0 13.7Office Admin Support 30,334 8.5 6.3Sales & Related Occup. 29,246 8.2 7.0Personal Care Occup. 23,892 6.7 15.2Management Occupations 22,964 6.4 7.1Education & Training 21,642 6.1 10.6Totals 224,234 63.0 10.0
Source: EMSI Inc., GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Washington Metropolitan Area: Major Sources of Net New Jobs
2012-2017
2017 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy
Local ServingActivities 38.0%
Non-LocalBusiness 16.3 %
TotalFederal 28.8%
Procurement 12.2%
Assn 1.9 %
Hosp. 2.6%
Int’l 3.9%
Other 1.5%
Other Federal 8.9 %
Health/Ed.
7.0 %
Fed Wages & Salaries 7.7 %
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
-2-101234567
%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Economic Outlook (GRP), 2012-2017Washington Area and Sub-State Areas
(Annual % Change)
DCSMMSANV
Thank You Questions
cra.gmu.edu