ecological forecasting and hindcasting in the rocky intertidal zone: where and when do we worry...

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Society for Experimental Biology Annual Main Meeting 6th 10th July 2008, Marseille, France C5 CLIMATE CHANGE: FROM GENES TO ECOSYSTEM C5.1 Climate change and conservation physiology C. Franklin (The University of Queensland) Global climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, therefore understanding and determining how organisms will respond to potentially rapid environmental change is becoming increasingly important. The impact of climate change is likely to operate at all levels of biological organisation: from the genome, to biochemical and physiological function; to organismal performance, and to the maintenance of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The challenge ahead for biologists is to predict how organisms will respond and adapt to climate change. To this end, the emerging field of conservation physiology (Wikelski and Cooke, 2006) will feature more prominently in future studies and will assist in helping to determine the likely impacts of climate change on organisms. Determining what physiological parameters to measure will be critical as will assessing the genotypic and phenotypic thermal plasticity of organisms. Such information will be important in order to predict the likely implica- tions for loss of biodiversity and all the associated cascading effects. Reference Wikelski, M., Cooke, S.J., 2006. Conservation physiology. Trends in Ecol. & Evol. 21, 3846. doi:10.1016/j.cbpa.2008.04.438 C5.2 Ecological forecasting and hindcasting in the rocky intertidal zone: Where and when do we worry about weather? B. Helmuth (University of South Carolina); D. Wethey (University of South Carolina); S. Pincebourde (Université François Rabelais); K. Smith (University of South Carolina); L. Szathmary (University of South Carolina); S. Woodin (University of South Carolina); T. Hilbish (University of South Carolina); V. Lakshmi (University of South Carolina) While many factors are important to the survival and physiological performance of intertidal invertebrates, an organisms body tempera- ture (Tb) is among the most important of these variables. However, patterns of Tb are often more complicated than corresponding patterns of weather and climate. We developed a biophysics based model that predicts the aerial and submerged Tbs of coastal invertebrates (mussels, barnacles, seastars) using NOAA and NASA weather station and remote sensing data as inputs, and used these models to forecast and hindcast the Tbs of these species over abroad range of temporal and spatial scales. Models were verified against in situ measurements, and were found to predict monthly maximum Tbs to within ~12 °C. By comparing predictions of Tbs against known physiological tolerances, we could then forecast (and, using historical data) hindcast levels of mortality and thus shifts in geographic ranges of several species. We also used these data to predict indirect effects of weather such as the feeding rates of keystone species (Pisaster and Nucella) on their prey. Tests of this approach show that we can hindcast historical range shifts with considerable accuracy, suggesting that future range shifts may be predictable. Results emphasize the importance of considering multiple stressors such as aerial and aquatic Tb, and point to future research directions such as the interactions between Tb, food availability, and aerobic capacity. Moreover, they emphasize the importance of considering the time course over which variables such as Tb occur when predicting geographic patterns of stress and corresponding shifts in range boundaries. doi:10.1016/j.cbpa.2008.04.439 C5.3 Salmonids in hot water: Examining aerobic scope and cardiac limitations A. Farrell (University of British Columbia); S. Hinch (University of British Columbia); D. Patterson (Simon Fraser University); E. Eliason (University of British Columbia); M. Steinhausen (University of British Columbia); L. Hanson (University of British Columbia) Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Part A 150 (2008) S167S173 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Part A journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cbpa

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Society for Experimental Biology Annual Main Meeting6th – 10th July 2008, Marseille, France

C5 — CLIMATE CHANGE: FROM GENES TO ECOSYSTEM

C5.1Climate change and conservation physiology

C. Franklin (The University of Queensland)

Global climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity,therefore understanding and determining how organisms willrespond to potentially rapid environmental change is becomingincreasingly important. The impact of climate change is likely tooperate at all levels of biological organisation: from the genome, tobiochemical and physiological function; to organismal performance,and to the maintenance of ecosystem services and biodiversity. Thechallenge ahead for biologists is to predict how organisms willrespond and adapt to climate change. To this end, the emerging field ofconservation physiology (Wikelski and Cooke, 2006) will feature moreprominently in future studies and will assist in helping to determinethe likely impacts of climate change on organisms. Determining whatphysiological parameters to measure will be critical as will assessingthe genotypic and phenotypic thermal plasticity of organisms. Suchinformation will be important in order to predict the likely implica-tions for loss of biodiversity and all the associated cascading effects.

Reference

Wikelski, M., Cooke, S.J., 2006. Conservation physiology. Trends inEcol. & Evol. 21, 38–46.

doi:10.1016/j.cbpa.2008.04.438

C5.2Ecological forecasting and hindcasting in the rocky intertidalzone: Where and when do we worry about weather?

B. Helmuth (University of South Carolina); D. Wethey (University ofSouth Carolina); S. Pincebourde (Université François Rabelais); K. Smith(University of South Carolina); L. Szathmary (University of SouthCarolina); S.Woodin(Universityof SouthCarolina); T.Hilbish(Universityof South Carolina); V. Lakshmi (University of South Carolina)

While many factors are important to the survival and physiologicalperformance of intertidal invertebrates, an organism’s body tempera-ture (Tb) is among the most important of these variables. However,patterns of Tb are often more complicated than correspondingpatterns of weather and climate. We developed a biophysics basedmodel that predicts the aerial and submerged Tbs of coastalinvertebrates (mussels, barnacles, seastars) using NOAA and NASAweather station and remote sensing data as inputs, and used thesemodels to forecast and hindcast the Tbs of these species over abroadrange of temporal and spatial scales. Models were verified against insitu measurements, and were found to predict monthly maximum Tbsto within ~1–2 °C. By comparing predictions of Tbs against knownphysiological tolerances, we could then forecast (and, using historicaldata) hindcast levels of mortality and thus shifts in geographic rangesof several species. We also used these data to predict indirect effects ofweather such as the feeding rates of keystone species (Pisaster andNucella) on their prey. Tests of this approach show that we canhindcast historical range shifts with considerable accuracy, suggestingthat future range shifts may be predictable. Results emphasizethe importance of considering multiple stressors such as aerial andaquatic Tb, and point to future research directions such as theinteractions between Tb, food availability, and aerobic capacity.Moreover, they emphasize the importance of considering the timecourse over which variables such as Tb occur when predictinggeographic patterns of stress and corresponding shifts in rangeboundaries.

doi:10.1016/j.cbpa.2008.04.439

C5.3Salmonids in hot water: Examining aerobic scope and cardiaclimitations

A. Farrell (University of British Columbia); S. Hinch (University ofBritish Columbia); D. Patterson (Simon Fraser University); E. Eliason(University of British Columbia); M. Steinhausen (University of BritishColumbia); L. Hanson (University of British Columbia)

Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Part A 150 (2008) S167–S173Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Part A 150 (2008) S167–S173

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Part A

j ourna l homepage: www.e lsev ie r.com/ locate /cbpa