ecarbonizing industry - rekksource: towards the eu ets innovation fund workshops (online available),...

Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure and Efficient Energy

Innovation

SET-Nav Regional Workshop Budapest, 26 February 2019

Dr. Andrea Herbst, Dr. Tobias Fleiter, Matthias Rehfeldt

DECARBONIZING INDUSTRY:

EXTENDING THE SCOPE OF MITIGATION OPTIONS

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 2

I. Introduction

II. Methodology

III. Pathways

IV. Results

V. Conclusions

OUTLINE

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0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Non-metallic mineralproducts

Iron and steel

Chemical industry

Other non-classified

Food, drink and tobacco

Engineering and othermetal

Paper and printing

Non-ferrous metals

_Electricity _District heating _Natural gas _Coal _Fuel oil _Other fossil

_Biomass _Waste non-RES _Waste RES _Ambient heat _Geothermal _Solar energy

Dominant energy carriers: gas, electricity, coal and oil

Current policy is not on the right track to decarbonisation and deep emission reductions require significant changes in the sector

INDUSTRY ACCOUNTS FOR 25% OF

EU FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Source: FORECAST

E U 2 8 I NDUSTR I AL F I NAL ENERGY DEM AND ( 2 0 1 5 )

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TODAYS AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGIES ARE

NOT SUFFICIENT FOR DECARBONISATION

Deep decarbonisation not possible via BAT energy efficiency and traditional fuel switch

Innovative low-carbon technologies are needed

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I. Introduction

II. Methodology

III. Pathways

IV. Results

V. Conclusions

OUTLINE

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FORECAST:BOTTOM-UP SIMULATION MODEL

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I. Introduction

II. Methodology

III. Pathways

IV. Results

V. Conclusions

OUTLINE

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PATHWAY CHARACTERIZATION

BY MITIGATION OPTIONClusters of mitigation

optionsREF

Directed Vision/ National

ChampionsDiversification/ Localisation

Incremental efficiency

improvement

Energy efficiency progress according to current policy framework and historical

trends.

Faster diffusion of incremental process improvements (BAT & INNOV ≥TRL 5).

Faster diffusion of incremental process improvements (BAT & INNOV ≥TRL 5).

Fundamental

processes

improvement

energy efficiency,

process emissions

- -Radical process improvements

(INNOV ≥TRL 5)

Fuel switching to RES

towards decarbonized

electricity and/or

hydrogen

Fuel switching driven by energy prices and assumed

CO2-price increase

Fuel switching to biomass and power-to-heat (<500°).

Use of existing technologies (no radical changes in industrial

processes technologies).

More district heating demand.

Stronger fuel switching to biomass, power-to-heat and power-to-gas technologies.

Radical changes in industrial process technologies drive fuel

switch (e.g. switch to hydrogen).

Lower demand for district heating.

Carbon capture and

storage (CCS)-

CCS for major energy-intensive point sources.

-

Recycling and re-useSlow increase in recycling rates based on historical

trends.

Stronger switch to secondary production.

Stronger switch to secondary production.

Material efficiency and

substitutionBased on historic trends.

Less efforts in material efficiency & substitution

Decrease in clinker factor.Increase in material efficiency &

substitution.

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BREAK-THROUGH INNOVATIONS WITH

DIFFERENT LEVELS OF MATURITY ARE UNDER

DEVELOPMENT

Source: Towards the EU ETS Innovation fund workshops (online available), Dechema 2017

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Carbon concrete (C3)Carbon nanofibres reinforced

concrete replacing steelconcrete

Source: http://www.graspapier.de/



DEVELOPMENT

Solidia concreterecarbonating cement for

precast concrete


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DEVELOPMENT


precast concrete


Siderwinn (ArcelorMittal)Fully electric steelmaking via

electrolysis

Hybrit (SSAB)H2 direct reduction of iron

ore with EAF

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/04/ssab.html

SuSteel (VoestAlpine)H2 based reduction of iron ore using

plasma technology

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DEVELOPMENT


precast concrete



electrolysis


plasma technology


ore with EAF


Grass paper (Creapaper)Grass based fibres replacing wood fibres


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DEVELOPMENT


precast concrete



electrolysis


plasma technology


ore with EAF


Grass paper (Creapaper)Grass based fibres replacing wood fibres


H2 MethanolRES H2 from water electrolysis plus

hydrogenation of CO2 as carbon source

H2 Methanol to Olefins Ethylene and propylene production from

RES H2 methanol

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I. Introduction

II. Methodology

III. Pathways

IV. Results

V. Conclusions

OUTLINE

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-400

-200

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050

Reference Directed Vision/Nationalchampions

Diversification/Localisation

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns [M

t C

O2

-eq

u]

Captured emissions

Waste non-RES

Other fossil

Natural gas

Fuel oil

Coal

Process emissions

VERY HIGH LEVEL OF AMBITION ENABLES A

HIGH REDUCTION IN CO2 EMISSIONS [EU28]

-79% vs. 2015(761 to 163 Mt)

-70% vs. 2015(761 to 228 Mt)

-11% vs. 2015(761 to 675 Mt)

-82% vs.

1990

-87% vs.

1990

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-400

-200

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns [M

t C

O2

-eq

u]

Captured emissions

Waste non-RES

Other fossil

Natural gas

Fuel oil

Coal

Process emissions

VERY HIGH LEVEL OF AMBITION ENABLES A

HIGH REDUCTION IN CO2 EMISSIONS [EU28]

-79% vs. 2015(761 to 163 Mt)

-70% vs. 2015(761 to 228 Mt)

Decarbonisation mainly via CCS: 292 Mt CO2 captured in 2050

Decarbonisation via low-carbon innovations, ambitious material efficiency and circular economy, hydrogen as energy carrier and feedstock as well as electricity for process heating

-11% vs. 2015(761 to 675 Mt)

-82% vs.

1990

-87% vs.

1990

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-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050

Reference Directed Vision/National champions Diversification/Localisation

Fin

al

energ

y d

em

and [T

Wh]

Hydrogen

Other RES

Waste non-RES

Solar energy

Other fossil

Natural gas

Fuel oil

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass

Ambient heat

REDUCTION IN FINAL ENERGY DEMAND LESS

PRONOUNCED THAN EMISSIONS [EU28]-16% (339 to 3137 TWh) -27% (3739 to 2806 TWh)-1% (3739 to 3707 TWh)

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-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050

Reference Directed Vision/National champions Diversification/Localisation

Fin

al

energ

y d

em

and [T

Wh]

Hydrogen

Other RES

Waste non-RES

Solar energy

Other fossil

Natural gas

Fuel oil

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass

Ambient heat

REDUCTION IN FINAL ENERGY DEMAND LESS

PRONOUNCED THAN EMISSIONS [EU28]

•Electricity becomes dominant energy carrier by 2050•E.g. new uses for process heat: steel electrolysis, flat glass electric furnace, etc.

•Biomass & ambient heat gain shares.• Fuel oil is nearly phased out by 2050 & coal is falling substantially.

-16% (339 to 3137 TWh) -27% (3739 to 2806 TWh)-1% (3739 to 3707 TWh)

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RES H2 FEEDSTOCK DEMAND CHANGES

ENERGY BALANCE BOUNDARIES [EU28]

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050

Reference Directed Vision/ National

champions


Energ

y d

em

and [

TW

h]

Hydrogen (feedstock)

Biomass (feedstock)

Natural gas (feedstock)

Naphtha (feedstock)

Waste non-RES

Other fossil

Fuel oil

Coal

Natural gas

Synthetic methane

Hydrogen

Electricity

District heating

Biomass

Solar energy

Ambient heat

Other RES

• Feedstocks are dominated by RES hydrogen for the production ofammonia, methanol and methanol-based ethylene

• Feedstock for chemicals still based on fossil fuels

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-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050



Energ

y d

em

and [

TW

h]

Electricity forhydrogenfeedstock

Electricity forhydrogen

Electricity finalenergy

LARGE VOLUMES OF RENEWABLE

ELECTRICITY WILL BE NEEDED [EU28]

Hydrogen (feedstocks) for

ammonia, methanol and

ethylene (549 TWh in 2050)

Hydrogen is mainly used in

the steel industry with H2-DR

replacing oxygen steel

(83 TWh in 2050)

Process heating in all sectors

(glass electric furnace, steel

electrolysis, etc.)

+7% (1041 to 1118 TWh)

+107% (1041 to 2157 TWh)

+11% (1041 to 1152 TWh)

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-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

201

5

205

0

201

5

205

0

201

5

205

0

201

5

205

0

201

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0

201

5

205

0

201

5

205

0

Ref DV/NC D/L Ref DV/NC D/L Ref DV/NC D/L

Chemical industry Iron and steel Non-metallic mineral products

Fin

al E

ne

rgy [

TW

h]

Hydrogen

Waste non-RES

Other fossil

Natural gas

Fuel oil

Electricity

Coal

Biomass

High financial support forbiomass

Biomass is used wheretechnically possible(e.g. cement & lime)

Increase in electricity drivenby process switch: e.g. electric furnaces (glass,steel), DR electrolysis

Use of hydrogen in steel production replacing BOF

Across all sectors and scenario still a substantial amount of natural

EU 28 final energy demand for process heating (>500°C)

SHIFT TOWARDS ELECTRICITY & B IOMASS

FOR PROCESS HEATING VIA FURNACES [EU28]

+384 TWhH2 feedstock

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SUMMARY: INNOVATIONS FACILITATE

DECARBONISATION OF EU INDUSTRY

Introduction Results

Pathways

Innovations

Policy

1

2

3

4

Available technologies not sufficient for decarbonisation of EU industry

>80% decarbonisation is possible – even without CCS, but requires:

Process innovations,

CO2-free secondary energy carriers,

Innovations in material efficiency and circular economy

Many low-carbon process innovations are under development

They differ strongly in maturity and distance to market

Support for RES and energy efficiency

Extending the ETS with a minimum price path to provide long-term certainty

Public RD funding for low-carbon innovations

Targeted public procurement to support low-carbon products

CO2 tax to provide incentives for companies outside the ETS

Policies to boost material efficiency & circular economy as well as energyefficiency

© Fraunhofer ISI

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Many thanks for your attention!

Dr. Andrea HerbstCompetence Center Energy Technology and Energy SystemsFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISIBreslauer Straße 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany Tel.: +49 (0) 721 6809 -439E-Mail: [email protected]://www.forecast-model.eu

The analysis was executed within the EU project SET-Nav (Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure and Efficient Energy Innovation), which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [GA-No. 691843]. For further information, see: http://www.set-nav.eu/.

mailto:[email protected]

ecarbonizing industry - rekksource: towards the eu ets innovation fund workshops (online available),...

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