Dynamics Model of a Net-Zero Neighborhood

Brandon DavisAlabama Agricultural and MechanicalUniversity

Dr. Gilbert WeigandComputing and Computational ScienceDirectorate

August 2009

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Overview

• Background

• Methods

• Results

• Conclusions

• Future work

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Background

• America is – addicted to foreign oil

• In 1970, imported 24% of oil currently nearly 70% and rising• Largest wealth transfer ever known to world underway from west to Middle East

– losing jobs to foreign competitors• Since 1999 25% of manufacturing jobs lost to foreign competition*• Between 2001 and 2003 (that’s 2 years), Goldman Sachs and Company estimates that 20% of

technology jobs have moved overseas, including sophisticated design and innovation jobs

– Not leading in the global energy and climate debate• Between 1990 and 2005 U.S. CO2 emissions rose by 1 billion tons (GT) to 7.2 GT/yr• Between 2005 and 2030, additional growth of CO2 emissions will be 2.5 GT** (35%)• U.S. faces growing energy needs and costs in all sectors: residential, commercial, industrial,

and Transportation• U.S. faces progressive environmental policy discussion for future, Cap and Trade, higher CAFÉ

standards, renewables and conservation incentives, climate protocols, and NIMBY and BANANA***

* Apollo Alliance, www.apolloalliance.org** U.S Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency*** NIMBY: Not In My Back Yard; BANANA: Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything

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U.S. energy consumption flow

Renewablesand Nuclear

• 5.9% Renewables

• 8.1% Nuclear

Fossil

• 22.9% coal(0% imported)

• 40.1% oil(>60% imported)

• 22.7% gas(16% imported)

Electricitygeneration

29% renewables & nuclear70% fossil (coal & gas only)

14%

86%

Lostenergy(from electricity generation, transmission, and distribution)

27%38%

20%

24%

28%

Industrial

14% electricity33% gas39% oil

Transportation

99% oil

% of TotalEnergy Sources =

Energy sources Energy consumption

2005 U.S. Energy Flowsfrom: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory(Total U.S. energy sources = approximately 100 Quadrillion BTUs <=> 50 million railroad cars full of coal or 50 billion gas-tanks full of gasoline)

Residentialand Commercial

45% electricity41% gas12% oil

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•Take transportation off the gasoline grid

And

•Take residential off the grid

Net-zero neighborhood

Bio = biologically derived energy generation Industrial Scale Wind

ESP

Solar

5

Net-Zero Neighborhood Model

Battery

grid

Industrial scale-solarIndustrial scale-solar

grid

Cloud

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Methodology

• Use Stella simulation software to create a dynamic model

• Represents energy consumption of population of 300,000

• Prove Net-Zero neighborhood trend works

• Show lower CO2 emissions

• Show decrease in gasoline consumption

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Net-Zero Neighborhoodsand the Smart Grid

Net-ZeroCommercial and ESPs

FossilCoal, Oil & Gas

Nuclear

Electric

transportation

Natio

nal G

rid

Hyd

ro

Solar

Win

d

Geo-

thermal

Nat

ion

al G

rid

E-S

tora

ge

and

loca

l sm

art

gri

d

Other

E-S

torag

e and

loca

l sma

rt grid

Net-Zero

Residential and ESPs

Centralpower

500-mile batteries

500-mile batteries

Local Gen

Local Gen Local G

en

Local G

en

Electric

transportation

Elect

ric

transp

ortatio

n

Elect

ric

transp

ortatio

n

Energy storage Energy

stora

ge

Energy

stora

ge Energy storage

• Incorporate the energy storage (e.g., batteries) into local smart grid

• Electric transportation becomes point to point mass transit

• Net-zero neighborhoods use local generation

• Energy service providers net-zero neighborhoods along with providing local generation

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Governing Equations

• Model as an initial value problem

• dEk = fi dt and solve using Euler’s method

• Euler’s equation first terms of Taylor series expansion

• Ek = energy

• fi = generation

• ti = time

• 24 hour time period

dtfdE ik *

nn

atn

afat

afatafaEtE )(*

!

)(...)(*

!2

)('')(*)(')()( 2

01

0001 ,...),(

tth

EthfEE

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Net-Zero Neighborhood Simulation Map

Model

Net-ZeroCommercial & ESPs

FossilCo

al, Oil & Gas

Nuclear

Electric

Transportation

Natio

nal G

rid

Hyd

ro

Solar Win

d

Geo-

thermalNat

ion

al G

rid

E-S

tora

ge

&L

oc

al S

ma

rt G

rid

Other

E-S

tora

ge &

Lo

ca

l Sm

art G

rid

Net-ZeroResidential & ESPs

CentralPower

500-Mile Batteries

500-Mile Batteries

Local Gen

Local Gen Local G

en

Local G

en

Electric

TransportationEle

ctric

Transp

ortatio

n

Elect

ric

Transp

ortatio

n

Energy Storage

Energy

Stora

ge

Energy

Stora

ge Energy Storage

Net-z

ero

neighborh

ood

EV

Commercial

ESP

Residential

Nuclear CoalOil Gas

Electricity

Storage

Hybrid

• NZN = Local Storage + Local Generation + Electrify Transportation

• NZN integrates seamlessly with other energy generation plans and the national grid

• NZN = Local Storage + Local Generation + Electrify Transportation

• NZN integrates seamlessly with other energy generation plans and the national grid

Stella model

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Stella model

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Results

StorageConsumption

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Simulation Results

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Discussion of Results

• Comparison between 2010 and 2030 were analyzed account 50 percent net-zero generation and 50 percent transportation

• Local storage switches all energy generation forms, e.g., solar and wind, into base load capacity

• At 50% market penetration– NZN reduces CO2 emissions by more than 50%– NZN can reduce oil imports by as much as 50%

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Conclusion

• NZN effectively reduces U.S.:– CO2 emissions and oil imports – creates U.S. jobs in NZN locals– national environmental sustainability goals – energy security goals

• NZN effectively reduces U.S.:– CO2 emissions and oil imports – creates U.S. jobs in NZN locals– national environmental sustainability goals – energy security goals

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Future Work

• Develop more comprehensive model to include time zone, seasonal, and regional affects, and multiple year

• Investigate specific R&D options for 500-mile battery to electrify transportation and 50% efficient solar cells

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Acknowledgements

• Dr. Gilbert Weigand, Debbie McCoy, Rashida Askia, Dr. Z.T. Deng, Alabama A&M University

• Office of science

• Oak Ridge National Laboratory

• Department of Energy

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Questions