duncan davidson - series a crunch
DESCRIPTION
Series A crunch by Duncan Davidson at Venture Shift 2013TRANSCRIPT
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Vator Venture Shift, July 2013
Venture Outlook
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Series A Crunch It’s real, it’s here!
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Seed Funding vs. Series A
2009 2010 2011 20120
200400600800
100012001400160018002000
SeedSeries A
Source: Cbinsight as reported by Dan Primack
# D
eals
This is how the data is reported …
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Series A Cliff
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
200400600800
100012001400160018002000
SeedSeries A
It matches until …
Source: Cbinsight as reported by Dan Primack
# D
eals The
Cliff
This is the relevant comparison …
Shift seed forward a year…
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The Faceplant Train Wreck!
Web 2.0 EraIPOs
FOMO chills
Series A slows down
Seed triage, bridging
Angels fear to tread
“Faceplant” Accelerators cut back on class
sizes
Q2-2012 Q3-2012 Q4-2012 Q1-2013 Q2-2013
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Down Rounds Spiked After Faceplant
Source: Fenwick & West
Faceplant
Reaction (Ouch!)
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Traditional VC Flat So Far in 2013
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Pitchbook Shows a Decided Downtrend
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
$5.3 $5.4 $6.0 $5.2 $6.2 $7.4 $6.1 $6.3$10.0$9.0 $9.4 $8.0 $8.0 $9.3 $7.1 $6.9 $7.1 $7.9
741676
726765 812
887821
870
1,0781,0571,054
966
1,1801,203
956897 900
778
Capital Invested ($B) # of Deals Closed
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Series A Flat So Far in 2013
Slight Uptick(222 in Q1, 246 in Q2) Seasonally Expected
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How Many Seed Deals Will Be Orphaned?
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“Getting to Series A” is Fading as the Goal
Seed Follow-On Financing:
Traditional VCA Round
“Bullpen” StyleFollow-On Seed
Vintage 2010, in 2011 45% 12%
Vintage 2011, in 2012 27% 23%
The Crunch
The Alternative
Source: Fenwick & West 2012 VC Survey
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VC IndustryMajor ongoing disruption
“The era of the gentleman VC
is over”
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VC Returns Sucked for a Decade
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VC Industry Consolidated
1993 1995 1998 2000 2003 2005 2008 2010 20130
100
200
300
400
500
600
33 54 77118
79 81 86 83 6826
61
138
282
136 155 175148
122
0
5
20
143
2744
5136
42
$100M+$20-100M$10-20M
Source: Thompson Reuters; Menlo Ventures Analysis
Active Venture Funds(Active = Over $1m in at least 5 deals)
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“Lean” Disrupted the Venture Model
Cloud storage, incubators
Open source libraries, commoditized hardware
Oracle license, large salaries, expensive machines
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Lean Enabled “Option-Buying” VCs
Old Model: “life cycle” VC New Model: option buying
Smaller fund
Hyper-active pace
Small amounts at early stages
Fail fast – start something better!
Oversized reserves –double down on winners!
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And a Much Faster Investment Pace(40 per year vs. traditional venture 4-5)
Option Buying Pace
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Smaller Deal Size Pushed Big VC Later
Source: PwC Q3 survey as reported by Fenwick & West
$2.5M 2012
$4.2M 2007
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Opening the Door to Funding Alternatives
Accelerators
Super-Angels
Micro-VCs
Crowd-funding
Bullpen
Secondary Markets
> 5000 dealsper year
Micro VCs
Accelerator Super Angels
$250K angel
$1M seed
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Bullpen Formed as an Alternative to the Series A
Bullpen saw disruption coming:
Bullpen GPs were active angels & LPs in seed funds like First Round Capital
The need: a seed follow-on round, below the A
The result: bypassing the A with a “shovel-in” round
Bullpen acknowledged as Series A Crunch thought leader
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PrognosisNew Wave of IPOs Coming!
“FOMO = Fear Of Missing Out”
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Venture Returns Improving
Index returns:
10 yr: 5.3%
3 yrs: 12.7%
Median returns:
10 yr: (4.6%)
Source: Cambridge Associates; NVCA
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Venture Liquidity Ratio Improving(Liquidity Ratio = Money Out vs. Money In)
Source: Menlo Ventures
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Another Tech Bubble is Brewing
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Tech M&A Values Increasing
Year of Tech M&A Number Average Size ($MM)
2011 75 $512
2012 94 $717
Source: Tower Watson Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor
Key Exits in 2012• Kayak
$1.8B• Kenexa $1.3B• Yammer
$1.2B• Meraki
$1.2B
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Tech IPOs Increased in Q2
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WSJ Headline: The New Wave of IPOs
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2013 IPO Candidates
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Venture DisruptionThe Revolution is Broad-Based
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VC Disruption is Part of the Larger Trend
The Revolution Will Not Be Categorized Disruptive Deals Replace the Incumbents
vs. Facebook vs. Hotels vs. PayPal
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What’s Next??
Vertically-oriented incubators New instruments: capped
converts, convertible equity Secondary liquidity Crowd-funding … who knows what’s next …
Its the easiest time ever to start a company … but one of the hardest times ever to scale a winner!