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DUBAIWeekly Highlights - Domestic Developments- Global Business Developments- Global Economic Developments

July, Week 3

Economic Research Department

Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry

I. Domestic DevelopmentsHealth: mass testing to help contain COVID-19

2Source: Ourworldindata, as of Jul 14, 2020

Figure 1 – Adjusted total confirmed COVID-19 cases in the GCC (cases per million person)

I. Domestic DevelopmentsFreight: Emirates SkyCargo scales up network: 83 destinations in June

3Source: Emirates SkyCargo

Figure 2 – Emirates SkyCargo operational cargo network – as of June 9th

I. Domestic DevelopmentsFreight: Emirates SkyCargo scales up network: 100 destinations in July

4Source: Emirates SkyCargo

Figure 3 – Emirates SkyCargo operational cargo network – as of July 7th

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II. Global Business Developments United States: a largely uneven recovery expected across sectors

Source: Mckinsey

Figure 4 – Estimated time to recover to pre-COVID-19 level – by sector

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II. Global Business Developments Europe: Lodging and Leisure & Entertainment worst hit by pandemic

Source: Moodys, data between March 1st and July 2nd

Figure 5 – Sectors most affected by COVID-19 in Europe (% of rating downgrades as a share of issuers)

16%

18%

27%

30%

35%

42%

46%

47%

67%

75%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Consumer Products

Manufacturing

Chemicals

Services

Energy

Automotive

Retail

Transportation

Leisure and Entertainment

Lodging

7Source: IHS Markit

Figure 6 – China business activity expectations

II. Global Business Developments China: Business activity expectations rebound in June

• A clear upturn in optimism about business activity wasnoted in June, with expectations at a 3-year-high.

• According to the latest IHS Markit survey, the net balanceof Chinese companies that expected business activity toincrease over the next year increased from 1% inFebruary 2020 to 22% in June.

• Despite the improvement in expectations about output,employment is expected to remain stagnant over the nextyear.

8Source: IMF July regional economic update

Figure 7 – GDP growth rates in MENA region (% y-o-y change)

III. Global Economic Developments MENA: IMF forecasts a challenging year before a 2021 rebound

4.6%

1.7%1.0%

0.3%

-5.7%

3.4%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2000-16 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F

9Source: Intracen

III. Global Economic Developments Trade: Some countries phasing out temporary liberalization, as trade

goes back to normal

Figure 9 – Evolution of COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures - by affected products

Figure 8 – Evolution of COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures - by effect on trade