du311 earth in crisis book 1

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DU311 Earth in crisis

A Warming World


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DU311 Earth in crisis

A Warming World

Edited by David Humphreys, Andrew Blowers, Nick James andPetr Jehlicka


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Contents

Introduction 7

DavidHumphreysandAndrewBlowers

Chapter

1

Climate

change:

an

introduction

to

a

heated

debate

11

DavidHumphreys

Chapter2 Theroleofscienceinclimatechangepolicy 61

DavidHumphreys

Chapter3 Climatechange:economicvaluationandpolicy 105

GrahamDawson

Chapter4 Collectiveactionorcollectivefailure?:the international

politics

of

climate

change

147

WilliamBrown

Chapter5 Energyandclimatechange:sustainableoptions,

politicalchoicesandethicalconsiderations 181

AndrewBlowers

Conclusion:summingupandlookingahead 235

AndrewBlowersandDavidHumphreys

Acknowledgements

242

Index 244


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7Introduction

IntroductionDavidHumphreysandAndrewBlowers

Weliveinawarmingworld.

Bythebeginningofthetwenty-firstcentury,thegradualbutdiscernible

increase inthemeantemperatureof theEarthhadbecomemanifest in

myriadways,suchascoastalflooding,lossofspecies,increasing

incidencesofdroughtandmeltingglaciers.Recentclimatechangeis

recognisedasfundamentallyaproblembroughtaboutbyhuman

actions,withultimatelythesurvivalofhumanityandecosystemsat

stake.Climatechange isincreasinglyframedasanissuewherethe

threatsaresevere, increasinglyimminentandpotentiallycatastrophic.

Iftheworstpredictionsofscientistsprovetobeaccurate,thennoone

will

be

able

to

escape

the

consequences

of

climate

change.

While

it

is

increasinglyacceptedbyagrowingnumberofpolicymakersthataction

needstobetakenimmediatelytoaddressclimatechange,itispolitically

difficulttodosowhenthe impacts,inmostpartsoftheworld,arestill

insignificant.Thisisaclassic Catch22.While it isstillpossibletotake

decisiveactiontopreventcatastrophe,thelackofmajorimpactsjustifies

delays;butoncetheimpactsbecomeclearandtheneedfordrastic

actionisrecognised, itmaybetoolate.

Effectiveandwell-foundedclimatepoliciesrequireacarefuland

informedanalysisoftheproblem,andthepossibleoptionsavailablefor

addressing

it.

This

book

aims,

in

part,

to

make

such

a

contribution.Drawingfromtheoriesandevidencefromthenaturalandsocialsciences

AWarmingWorldintroducesanddiscussessomeof thevariousclaims

andcounterclaimsthataremadeaboutclimatechange,theeconomic

costsofaction,thebarrierstointernationalcooperation,andsomeof

thetechnical,politicalandethicalissuesinvolvedinseekinglowcarbon

energyalternativestocoalandoil.

Theintentionisnotonlytoexploreclimatepolicymaking,butalsoto

illuminatesomeideas,debatesandchallengesthatariseinenvironmental

policymakingmorebroadly.Environmentalpolicyisacomplexand

challenging

field

for

researchers,

students

and,

of

course,

for

policy

makersthemselves.Inordertomakethiscomplexitymoreeasily

manageablewehavestructuredthisbookandtheModulearounda

conceptualframeworkcomprisingfourmodulequestionsandsixmodule

themes.Thefourmodulequestionsare:

1 Whatarethecausesandconsequencesofinternationalenvironmental

problems?

2 Whathavebeenthepoliticalresponsestotheseproblems?


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8 AWarmingWorld

3 Whataretheconstraintsonmoreeffectivepolicyresponses?

4 Whatcanbedoneforthefuture,andwhatshouldbedone?

Makingsenseofinternationalenvironmental issues,theframingof

environmental

problems

and

the

political

and

policy

responses

to

them,

requiresanalysisusingasetofsixthemes:

1 Interdependencewithinandbetweennatureandsociety

2 Internationalpoliticaldivisions,inequalitiesanddistributionsofpower

3 Contentionovervaluesandknowledge

4 Therelationshipbetweensustainabilityanddevelopment

5 Differencesacrosstimeandspace

6 Responsibilityandcitizenship

The

questions

and

themes

each

have

different

purposes.

The

module

questionsareintendedtostructureandguideyourlearningonthe

module.Thepurposeofthethemes istosuggestdifferentwaysof

approachingthequestionsandinterpretingthem.Thethemesindicate

differentlinesofenquirythatyoucanpursuewhenthinkingthrough

themodulequestions.Theywillalsohelpyoutoidentifysomeofthe

keyconceptswhichwillintegrateyourlearningthroughoutthemodule.

Theconceptualframeworkintroduced inthisbookappliesnotonlyto

climatechangebuttootherenvironmentalproblemstoo.

Theframeworkthatyouwillworkwithinthisbookwillthereforealso

stand

you

in

good

stead

for

the

remainder

of

the

module.

Chapter1providesageneralintroductiontothesubjectofclimate

changeusingtheconceptualframeworkoffourquestionsandsix

themes.Inexaminingclimatechangethechapter introducesanumber

ofconceptsandideasthataredevelopedfurtherasthebookunfolds.It

examinesclimatechangeastheresultofbothnaturalandsocialcauses

andintroducesyoutothemaininternationalpolicyresponsetoclimate

change,theKyotoProtocol.Thechaptersuggeststhatcoherent

environmentalpolicyresponsesrequiretheactiveinvolvementofa

broadrangeofgovernmentalactors.Thiscallsforthatmostelusiveof

characteristics,

joined-up

governmental

thinking

so

that

environmental

policiesare introducedintoeverytheatreofgovernment.Afurther

considerationisthatenvironmentalproblemsarealmostinvariably

transnational:theycrosspoliticalfrontiersbeyondthestate.Overall,

throughoutyourstudyofthismodule,itisworthwhiletakingnoteof

thesubtitle environmentalpolicyinan internationalcontext. So even

thoseproblemsthat,atfirstsight,mayseemtobehighlylocalised in

spaceusually,oncloserexamination,canbeseentoinvolve

transboundarynaturalandsocialprocesses.


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9Introduction

Environmentalpolicymakingisaprocessthatbringstogetherscience

andpolitics.Climatechangehasmovedfrombeingmerelyascientific

issuetooneofimmenseandcompellingsocialandpoliticalimportance.

Afundamentalquestionthatoftenarisesis:howdoweknowthatrecent

climate

change

is

driven

by

humans

and

is

not

the

result

of

only

naturalprocesses?Chapter2considersthisquestion.Whilethere

remainsabasicdistinctionbetweenscienceasproducingknowledgeand

politicsassolvingproblems,thechapterexamineshowscienceand

politicscombinetoshapeenvironmentalpolicy.Itarguesthatascience

baseddiscourseofclimatechangehasbecomedominantwhich

establishesthecausesofclimatechangeasmainlyanthropogenic(the

emissionintotheatmosphereofgreenhousegasesfromhuman

practices,primarilyindustryandagriculture)andwhichisprimarily

anthropocentric(concernedmainlywiththehumanconsequences).Yet,

thereremainelementsofapoliticallyinfluentialalternativediscourse

which

denies

that

climate

change

is

an

anthropogenic

problem.

Chapter3asksifthereisaneconomiccasefortacklingclimatechange.

Inotherwords,mightitnotmakemoresenseineconomictermsto

acceptthefuturecoststhatclimatechangewillimposeupontheworld,

ratherthantoexpendhugesumsofmoneynowtodealwiththe

problem?TheSternReviewof2007concludedthatbytheendofthis

centurytheenvironmentalandsocialdamagecausedbyclimatechange

couldleadtothevalueoftheworldeconomyfallingbyafifth.However,

thiscouldbeavoided ifonlyabout1percentoftheeconomywere

directedtodealingwithclimatechange.Thechapteroutlineshow

economic

thinking

can

help

to

address

climate

change,

although

it

does

notlosesightofthe limitationsofeconomictheory.Itmakesclearthat

spendingmoneytoavoidtheconsequencesofclimatechange isnot

solelyaneconomicquestion;italsoraisesethicalquestionsofhowwe

valuethefutureandwhatresponsibilitieswehaveforfuturegenerations.

Animportantquestionininternationalclimatepoliticsiswhy,atatime

whenbothscientificevidenceandpublicconcernonclimatechangeis

mounting,thegovernmentsoftheworldhavefailedtoagreeanurgent

andfocusedresponsetotheproblem.Atfirstsightitwouldseemthatall

governments

have

a

common

interest

in

recognising

and

addressing

this

problem.However,internationalcooperationhasproveddifficultto

achieve.Usinggametheory,Chapter4outlinesthecollectiveaction

problemandidentifiessomeofthereasonswhystateshavestruggledto

reach internationalagreementonclimatepolicies.Nationalsovereignty,

economiccompetitiveness anddivergentinterestscombinetoinhibit

agreement.Thechapteralsosuggestshowgovernmentscanoffer

incentivestoencourage laggardstatestopartakeininternational

cooperation.


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10 AWarmingWorld

Amajorpartoftheproblemofclimatechangeisthedependenceof

muchoftheglobaleconomyonfossilfuelsforenergy.Ashifttolow

carbonenergyalternativesisapressingpriority.Chapter5exploressome

ofthepoliticalandtechnologicalconstraintsonachievinglowcarbon

energy

options.

Using

the

debate

over

nuclear

energy

as

its

example,

the

chapterdiscusseswhatcanandwhatshouldbedoneaboutthefuture.

Nuclearenergyisportrayed intermsofecologicalmodernisation,the

contemporarymodeofenvironmentalpolicymakinginwhichmarket

basedandtechnologicalsolutionsaregivenpriorityoverother

approaches.Thechapterarguesthatengagementwiththepublicin

deliberativeformsofpolicymakingcancounteractatendencyfor

centralisedandcloseddecisionmaking.Finally,thechapterdrawsout

somewiderethicaldebates, inparticularonthemanagementof

radioactivewastes.Byfocusingonproblemsofintergenerationalequity,

itraiseschallengingissuesabouthowweshoulddealnowwith

problems

that

will

extend

into

the

far

future.

AWarmingWorld isnotonlyabookonwhat,wewouldsuggest,isthe

mostpressingchallengethatourgenerationfaces:thestabilisationof

theEarthsatmosphere.Itisalsoabroaderintroductiontothesubjectof

environmentalpolicy.Throughoutthebookclimatechangeisusedto

introduceawiderangeoftheoreticalconceptsandideasthatcanbe

usedtoanalyseandunderstandotherenvironmentalissues.The

conclusion, Summingupand lookingahead,providesareflectionthat

drawsoutsomekeyconcepts,inparticular inequality,whichwillbe

furtherdevelopedinthebookstofollow.Asthisbookunfoldsyouwill

develop

a

conceptual

toolkit

that

you

will

work

with

and

develop

throughouttheremainderofthemodule.

ReferenceStern,

N.

(2007)TheEconomicsofClimateChange:TheSternReview,Cambridge,

CambridgeUniversityPress.


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Chapter1

Climatechange:anintroductiontoaheateddebateDavid

Humphreys

Contents

1 Introduction 12

1.1 Learningoutcomes 16

2 Modulequestion1:whatarethecausesandconsequencesof

internationalenvironmentalproblems? 16

2.1

What

is

climate

change?

16

2.2 Thecausesofclimatechange 17

2.3 Theconsequencesofclimatechange 21

3 Modulequestion2:whathavebeenthepoliticalresponsesto

theseproblems? 28

3.1 Framingthe issue 28

3.2 What ispower? 31

3.3 TheKyotoProtocol 33

4 Modulequestion3:whataretheconstraintsonmoreeffective

policyresponses? 36

4.1 Effectiveness 36

4.2 Politicalconstraints 37

4.3 Knowledgeconstraints 38

4.4 Theroleoftechnology 39

4.5 Responsibilityandtheagencystructuredebate 44

5

Module

question

4:

what

can

be

done

for

the

future,

and

what

shouldbedone? 48

5.1 Feasibilityanddesirability 48

5.2 Equity 50

5.3 Introducingsustainabledevelopment 52

6 Conclusion:workingwithananalyticalframework 55

References 56


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12 AWarmingWorld

1 IntroductionIn2002AntarcticasLarsenBiceshelfbrokeupandcollapsed.Overa

periodofjust35daystheiceshelfover183metresthickand3250

squarekilometresinareacompletelydisintegrated,fragmentinginto

thousands

of

icebergs

that

slowly

melted

into

the

ocean

over

the

next

few

months.Theprocesswascapturedbysatellitepicturesthatwereshown

innewspapersandontelevisionnewsbulletinsaroundtheworld

(Figure1.1a).DavidVaughanoftheBritishAntarcticSurveydescribedthe

speedofthecollapseasstaggering(DailyUniversityScienceNews,2002).

Thedisintegrationoftheiceshelf,whichhadcertainlybeenstablefor

5000yearsandcouldhavebeeninplaceformorethan12,000years,

followedthebreak-upofAntarcticasLarsenAiceshelfin1995andthe

partialcollapseoftheWilkinsicesheetthroughout1998and1999.

Antarcticaisalargefrozencontinentinthepolarregionaroundthe

Earths

South

Pole

also

referred

to

as

the

Antarctic

(a

term

including

boththecontinentandthesurroundingsea).Mostoftheseaicearound

Antarcticaisdirectlyaffectedbytherelativelywarmseawater,which

causesicebergstocrackandfloataway(Figure1.1b).However,the

meltingoftheEarthsiceisnotconfinedtotheAntarctic.Oftheworlds

glaciers,mostarenowinretreat(Figure1.2).AccordingtoWorking

Group1oftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)

AssessmentReport5(AR5),theannualmeanArcticseaiceextent

decreasedovertheperiod19792012withthemostrapiddecreasesnoted

duringthesummers.Thespatialextentoftheseaicehasdecreasedevery

seasonandeverysuccessivedecadesince1979(IPCC,2013).Regardlessof

someminorfluctuations,thelong-termdecreaseinicecoverishaving

majorimpactsontheArctic(theregionaroundtheEarthsNorthPole)

ecosystemwithsomespeciesencounteringconsiderableproblems.

OurEarthisconstantlychanging.Butshouldwebeconcernedabout

this?Weliveonadynamicplanetthathasevolvedandchanged

enormouslysinceitsoriginssome4.6billionyearsago.Isthereanything

significantaboutthechangesthatarehappeninginourlifetime?Are

meltingicesheetsaproblem,ormerelyanaturalprocessaboutwhich

weneednotbeconcerned?Even ifmelting ice isnotaproblemnow,

might

it

be

symptomatic

of

a

broader,

more

fundamental

problem?

If

so,

whatcanwedoaboutit?

Thesearejustsomeofthequestionsthatarisewhenclimatechangeis

discussedandwhichyouwillexploreinthisbook.Therearenoobvious

answerstomanyofthem,butonethingisbeyonddoubt.Scientistshave

establishedthattheEarthsmean(average)temperature increasedby

about0.6Cduringthetwentiethcentury,andthatitcontinuestorise.

ThisrecentincreaseintheEarthstemperature issometimesreferredto

as globalwarming,althoughmostscientistsusetheterm climate


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13Chapter1 Climatechange:an introductiontoaheateddebate

Figure

1.1a

The

partial

collapse

of

Antarcticas Larsen B iceshelf

in

2002

attracted

worldwideattention

Figure1.1b

A

major

iceberg

crackedoff

the

Pine

Island

GlacierinAntarcticabetween9and11

November

2013(Source:NASAEarth

Observatory,

2013)


14/260

14 AWarmingWorld

Popocatepetl

GLACIAL RETREAT

Extent to which fronts of glaciers have moved since the 1950s

almost all in retreat

selected glaciers

more than half in retreat

some in retreat

Southern Andes

About half the glacierssurveyed in Chile showsigns of retreat.

Antarctic Peninsula

85% of glaciersare retreating.

Alaska

Glaciers are both

retreating and thinning.

A rapid retreat and lossof ice mass in Greenlandis giving cause forconcern. Nearly 7 km2

broke off on the night

of 6 July 2010.

Greenland

Tree stumps are beingexposed for the rsttime in 2500 years asglaciers recede.

Canadian RockC iesanadian Rockies

The Ventorrillo glaciershowed signs ofretreat between1950 and 1982.

USA

The South Cascadesglacier in WashingtonState has beenretreating for a hundredyears. From 1958 to 2005,its volume decreased bynearly half.

1898

2003

The Quelccaya glacier,Peru, is retreating tentimes more rapidly thanit did in the 1970s and1980s by up to 60metres a year.

Northern Andes

Above: the Arapahoglacier in 1898 and 2003

Figure1.2

Almost

all

the

worldsmajorglaciersarenowinretreat(Source:DowandDowning,2011)


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Glacial lakes form at the foot ofglaciers from the increasing volume ofmelt water. Glacial lake outburst oodsoccur when the lakes break throughthe natural dams, unleashing torrentsof water. Such outburst oodsthreaten lives and property indownstream valleys in Bhutan.

Glacial lakes

The Meren glacier haddisappeared by 2000.The Carstenz andNorthwall Firn glaciershave lost 20% of theirarea since 2000.

Scandinavia

Many glaciers areretreating, althoughincreased snowfall isadding to their mass.

The famous snowcapped peaks onMounts Kenya andKilimanjaro areshrinking so rapidlythat they may vanishby 2025. The RwenzoriMountainsare also meltingrapidly.

East Africa

Himalayan and other

Asian glaciers

Almost all glacierssurveyed are in retreat.

Tien Shan

Glaciers have shrunk toa third of their 1850extent and have losthalf of their volume. Atypical example is therecession of theMorteratsch glacier,Switzerland, between1985 and 2007.

Three-quarters of

glaciers studiedshowed signs of retreat.

New Zealand

European Alps

Irian Jaya

The 400 glaciers in the northof the range have lost 25% oftheir volume since 1955. Theglacier could be less than halfits current volume by 2100.

1985

2007


16/260

16 AWarmingWorld

change,atermthatalsoreferstothelengthyperiodsofwarmingand

coolingthattheEarthhasundergonethroughitshistory.

Ishallintroduceclimatechangebytakingyouinturnthrougheachof

thefourquestionsforthismodule.Asyouconsider thesequestionsyou

will

explore

some

of

the

scientific,

political,

social,

economic,

technologicalandethicaldebatesthatarisewhenpolicymakersaddress

climatechange.Youwillgainanappreciationofclimatechangeasa

complexinternationalpolicyissueandworkwithsomeoftheconcepts

andtheoriesthatcanhelpunlockthiscomplexity.

1.1 Learningoutcomes

Thischaptershouldenableyouto:

n identifysomeofthemaincausesandconsequencesofclimate

change

(module

question

1)

n discusssomeofthemainpoliticalresponsestoclimatechange

(modulequestion2)

n appreciatesomeoftheconstraintstomoreeffectiveinternational

policyresponsestoaddressclimatechange(modulequestion3)

n recognisesomeoftheresponsesthatmightbemadetoaddress

climatechangeinthefuture(modulequestion4).

2

Module

question

1:

what

are

the

causesandconsequencesofinternationalenvironmentalproblems?

2.1 Whatisclimatechange?

Meltingicesheetsarefarfromunusualinthehistoryofourplanet.

Geologists

and

climate

scientists

have

established

that

the

Earths

climateunderwentmajorchangeslongbeforehumansevolved.Someofthe

causesofclimatechangeincludebombardmentfromasteroids,changesin

solaractivity,tectonicplatemovementsandvolcaniceruptions.Ice

shelveshaveadvancedandretreatedseveraltimesthroughouttheEarths

history.Therehavebeenperiodstheiceageslastinghundredsof

thousandsofyearswhenicecoveredmuchoftheEarth,followedby

interglacialperiodswhentheiceretreatedtowardsthepoles.Thelastice

agethePleistoceneendedonlysome11,000yearsagogivingwaytoour

presentgeologicalperiod,theHolocene.Forscientists,thisHolocene


17/260


epochisrelevantbecauseitshowstherecentformationofhabitats,

landscapesandsoils.Itisalsosignificantforobservingthepostglacial

changesinglobalclimate.So,werethemeltingandcollapseofthe

LarsenBiceshelfandicebergsplitonPineIslandGlacier(seeFigure1.1b)

exceptional

events

when

the

long-term

history

of

climate

change

is

considered?TowhatextentwasthecollapseofLarsenBcausedby

naturalprocesses,andtowhatextentwasittheresultofanthropogenic

climatechange;inotherwords,changethatistheresultofhuman

activities?

Thetermanthropogenic

referstosomethingthati

caused

or

influenced

by

humans.

Our interestonthismoduleisnotwiththechangestotheEarththat

havehappenedoverlong-termgeologicaltime,fascinatingthoughthey

are,butwithchangestotheEarthoveramuchshortertimeperiod,

thelasttwotothreehundredyearssincethedawnof theIndustrial

Revolution.Thisisaverysmallmomentingeologicaltime,yetonethat

has

seen

some

major

transformations

to

the

global

environment.

InordertoexaminethecausesandconsequencesofclimatechangeIwill

startbyintroducingyoutothescientifictheoryofthesubject.Oneof

themainpointsIthenwishtomakeisthatcontemporaryclimate

changeis,atleastinpart,anthropogenicinorigin.Ishallsurveythe

causesofcontemporaryclimatechangeandsomeoftheactual

andpredictedconsequences.Understandingthesecausesand

consequencesrequiresanawarenessofdifferencesacrosstimeand

space.

Module

theme

5Differencesacrosstime

andspace

Keep

an

eye

open

for

the

module

themes

as

you

read

the

chapter

2.2

The

causes

of

climate

change

ThetheoryofclimatechangeholdsthattheEarthsmeantemperature

willvaryaccordingtotheconcentrationsofcertaingasesalreadypresent

intheatmosphere.Thewarmingeffectof thesegasesisknownasthe

greenhouseeffectandthegasesthemselvesareknownasgreenhouse

gases.Iftheatmosphericconcentrationofgreenhousegasesincreases

then,overtime,themeantemperatureof theEarthwillalsoincrease.

Similarly,iftheatmosphericconcentrationofgreenhousegasesfalls

then,eventually,sotoowillthemeantemperatureoftheplanet.The

worldsmaingreenhousegasesarecarbondioxide(CO2),methane

(CH4),

nitrous

oxide

(N2O),

chlorofluorocarbons

(CFCs)

and

hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs).Iftherewerenogreenhousegasesinthe

atmospherethentheEarthwouldbe33Ccolderthanitisnow,toocold

tosupportlife.

Thegreenhouseeffectis

anatmosphericwarming

effect

caused

by

the

trapping

of

solar

radiation

intheatmosphereby

greenhousegases,

principally

carbon

dioxide.

TounderstandwhygreenhousegaseswarmtheEarthyouneedtoknow

aboutageophysicalprocessknownasradiativeforcing.Radiativeforcingisthedifferencebetween incomingsolarradiationand

reflectedoroutgoingsolarradiationintheEarthsclimaticsystem.

Radiative

forcing

is

the

differencebetween

incomingandoutgoing

radiation

from

the

sun.Greenhousegasesallowshort-wavesolarradiationtopassthroughtothe


18/260

18 AWarmingWorld

A

t

c

i

surfaceoftheEarth.Someofthisradiationisreflectedbackintospace

fromsurfaceswithahighalbedo.Albedoisameasureofreflectivity.

SurfaceswiththehighestalbedowhitesurfacessuchastheLarsenBice

shelfreflectmostoftheshort-wavesolarradiationthatstrikesthem.

Thisreflectedradiationdoesnotwarmtheatmosphere.However,darker

surfaces

with

a

low

albedo,

such

as

the

oceans

and

land,

absorb

incoming

solarradiation,whichisthenreradiatedaslong-waveradiation.This

reradiatedlong-waveradiationisabsorbedbygreenhousegasesand

trappedasheat,thuswarmingtheatmosphere:Figure1.3.TheIPCCs

AssessmentReport5(AR5)estimatesthatthetotalanthropogenic

radiativeforcingfor2011is43percenthigherthanthatreportedinAR4

for2005(IPCC,2013).

Albedo

is

a

measure

of

thereflectivityofa

surface.

Anthropogenic

climate

change

is

the

result

of

an

enhanced

greenhouse

effectthatiscausedbyhumanemissionsofgreenhousegasesintothe

atmosphere.

To

help

you

understand

what

causes

this

enhanced

effect

I

would

first

like

to

draw

a

distinction

made

by

scientists

and

social

scientists

between

direct

causes

and

underlying

causes.

A

direct

cause

is

acausethatleadsdirectlytoanobservedeffect.Theobservedeffectthat

we

are

concerned

with

is

the

rise

in

the

Earthstemperature.Thedirect

cause

of

this

is

the

change

in

the

radiative

forcing

of

the

Earthsclimatic

systemastheresultofincreasedatmosphericconcentrationsof

greenhouse

gases.

But

what

is

causing

these

increased

atmospheric

concentrations?

A

direct

cause

is

a

cause

that

leads

directly

to

an

observed

effect.

Toanswerthisquestionweneedtolookfortheproximatecauses.Anunderlyingcauseisthefirstinaseriesofeventsthatresultsinanobserved

effect.

So

event

A

may

lead

to

event

B,

which

in

turn

leads

to

event

C,

and

soon.Theunderlyingcausesofanthropogenicclimatechangearesocial

ratherthannatural.Thesinglemostimportantunderlyingcauseof

anthropogenicclimatechangeistheburningoffossilfuels,suchasoiland

coal,whicharecentraltoenergygenerationandindustrialproduction.The

burningoffossilfuelsemitscarbondioxide.Carbonisoftenreferredtoas

thestuffoflifeasitisanelementfoundinallformsoflifetohaveexisted

onEarth.CO2

concentrationsintheatmospherehave increasedowingto

theburningofancientnatureandlivingnature.ByancientnatureImean

fossilfuelswhichcontaincarbonfromplantsandcreaturesthatlived

during

earlier

geological

epochs.

Coal

is

derived

from

ancient

forests,

and

oilandnaturalgaswereformedfromtheremainsofmarineplantsand

animalsthatlivedmillionsofyearsago.

nunderlyingcauseis

hefirstinaseriesof

ausal

events

that

results

nanobservedeffect.

Acarbonsinkisan

ecosystemthatabsorbs

carbon

dioxide

from

the

atmosphere.

Livingnaturerefers,ofcourse,topresentlifeforms,inparticularthe

worldsforests.Deforestationandotherlandusesarethesourceof

approximately33percentofglobalCO2emissions(IPCC,2013).Forests

areacarbonsink.Acarbonsinkisanecosystemthatabsorbscarbon

dioxide,therebyremovingitfromtheatmosphere.ForeststakeupCO2fromtheatmospherethroughphotosynthesisandthenstoreitintrees,


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vegetationandthesoil(Box1.1).Deforestation,whichtakesplaceto

harvesttimberandtoreleaselandforotheruses,suchasagricultureand

urbanisation,botherodesthecarbonsinkcapacityoftheEarthand

releasesbackintotheatmospherecarbonthatisstoredinforests.

olar ice ca

Ice has a high albedo andreflects aroimatel of

incoming short-wavesolar radiation

tmoshere

Indicates long-wave radiation emitted fromdark surfaces with a low albedo, such asland masses and the oceans.

Indicates short-wave solar radiationreflected from surfaces with a high albedo.

Indicates incoming short-wave solar radiation.

louds reflect some incomingshort-wave solar radiation

back into sace

un

louds

he diagram is not to scale. he atmoshere is much thinner than shown.


Figure1.3

The

greenhouse

effect

Whataretheunderlyingcausesoftheemissionsofothergreenhouse

gases?Nitrogen-basedfertilisersandlivestockwastearesignificant


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20 AWarmingWorld

Figure

1.4

Contributions

made

by

greenhouse

gases

to

the

enhanced

greenhouse

effect.Carbondioxideisthemajorcontributorfollowedbymethane(Source:

Brown,

2006)

sourcesofnitrousoxideemissionsfromagriculturalland.Nitrousoxide

(N2O)alsocomesfromfossilfuelburning(again)andfromthe

industrialmanufactureofsyntheticmaterials.Themainsourcesof

methane(CH4)aredeforestation,ricefarmingandcattlefarming.Some

greenhouse

gases,

such

as

CFCs

and

HCFCs,

do

not

occur

naturally

and

havebeenmanufactured industrially.AlthoughamoleculeofCO2contributeslesstoclimatechangerelativetoothergreenhousegases,

carbondioxide isthemostimportantgreenhousegas,asfarmoreofit

isemittedthananyothergreenhousegas(Figure1.4).CO2 accountsfor

63percentofthetotalwarmingeffectandittakesaround100years

for ittobeabsorbedbackintolivingplantsandtheoceans.Methane

disappearsmorerapidlybutstillneedsurgentcontrolsasitisamore

potentgreenhousegas.

Box

1.1

Carbon

sinks

and

photosynthesis

Photosynthesisisthechemicalprocessbywhichvegetation,such

astreesandplants,synthesisesorganiccompoundsfromCO2 and

waterusingsunlight.Vegetationtakesupcarbondioxidefromthe

atmosphere,storingthecarboninitstissue.Vegetationthusactsas

acarbonsink.Forestsareamajorcarbonsink,althoughtheydo

not

have

an

unlimited

capacity

to

absorb

CO2

.

Another

major

carbonsinkistheworldsoceans.Oceansabsorbcarbondioxidein

partthroughphytoplankton.Thesearesmallphotosynthesising

organismsthatrequireCO2 togrowandwhichformthebasisof

foodforallothermarineorganisms.Land-basedvegetationabsorbs

aboutasmuchCO2 asoceanicphytoplankton,despitethe land

areabeinglessthanathirdoftheEarthssurface.Contemporary

climatechangeistakingplacebecausetherearemore

anthropogenicemissionsofCO2 thantheEarthssinkscanabsorb.


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Understandingthecausesofanthropogenicclimatechangethus

requiresanawarenessofsomecomplex interactions,inparticularthe

interdependencewithinandbetweennatureandsociety.However,some

populationsandgroupshaveemittedfarmoregreenhousegasesthan

others.

This

has

influenced

how

climate

change

has

been

handled

as

an

internationalpoliticalproblem.

Themainactor intheinternationalpoliticalsystemisthestate.Astate

hasadefinedterritory,apopulation(itscitizens)andisrepresented

politicallybyagovernment.Thereareabout200statesintheworld.

Whichstatesbearthemostresponsibilityforcausinganthropogenic

climatechange?

Itisimportanttohaveanappreciationofaninequalitythat

permeatesinternationalclimatepolitics;overtimedifferentstateshave

contributedtoclimatechangetodifferingdegrees.Thishas ledto

political

disagreement

about

which

states

should

be

most

responsible

foraddressingtheprobleminthefuture.

Moduletheme1

Interdependence

within

and

between

nature

and

society

2.3 Theconsequencesofclimatechange

Anunderstandingofinequalityisalsonecessarytounderstandthe

consequencesofclimatechange.Somecountriesandregionswillsuffer

more

than

others.

However,

predicting

the

overall

effects

of

climate

changeisdifficultastheconsequenceswillvaryaccordingtohowfast

theEarthstemperaturechanges.TheIPCCsFourthAssessmentReport

predictedamaximumtemperatureincreasethiscenturyof6.4C,anda

minimumof1.1C(IPCC,2007).Thisisadifferenceofmorethan5C.

Predictingconsequenceswithinsuchawidetemperaturerange isno

easymatter.WhyistheresuchadifferencebetweentheIPCCshighest

andlowestestimates?

Therearefourmainreasons.Firstisclimatesensitivity.Thisisaterm

thatdenotestherelationshipbetweenanthropogenicemissionsof

greenhouse

gases

and

the

change

in

global

mean

surface

temperaturecausedbytheseemissions(Chandler,2010).TheIPCCtermofsensitivity

isdefinedashowmuchtheglobalmeansurfacetemperaturewill

increase ifthere isadoublingofcarbondioxideintheatmosphere.

Climatescientistsknowthatincreasingatmosphericconcentrationsof

greenhousegaseswillleadtoan increaseinthetemperatureofthe

Earth;buttheydonotknowbyexactlyhowmuch.Asecondreasonis

thattheEarthstemperaturedoesnotrespond immediatelytochanges

inatmosphericconcentrationsofgreenhousesgases;thereisatimelag


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22 AWarmingWorld

betweengreenhousegasesbeingemittedandtemperaturechanging.

Forexample,theslowabsorptionofheatintheoceansandtheslow

responseoficesheetsmeanthat longperiodsarerequiredbeforethe

climatesystemreachesanewequilibrium.Third,futuregreenhousegas

emissions

are

not

known;

they

depend

in

part

on

the

policies

that

states

taketoaddressclimatechangeandwhetherthesepolicieswillbe

effective.

ToexplainthefourthreasonIdliketoreturntothedisintegrationofthe

LarsenBiceshelf.ThereisscientificevidencethatLarsenBscollapse

wasdue,atleastinpart,toanthropogenicclimatechange,whichled

towarmeraircirculatingaroundAntarctica(Marshalletal.,2006).The

disintegrationoftheicesheetreplacedasurfacewithahighalbedo

thatreflectsincomingshort-waveradiation,withadarkersurface,

namelyseawater,withalowalbedo.Theresultisanincreasein

reradiated

long-wave

radiation,

increased

radiative

forcing

and

furtherwarming(Figure1.5).Scientistscallthisafeedbackeffect:thewarming

oftheclimatehasresultedinaconsequencewhich,inturn,causes

furtherwarming.Afeedbackeffectisachangewithinasystemthat

willeitherenhanceordiminishtheoriginaleffect,inthiscasethe

temperatureof theEarth.Positivefeedbackeffectswillenhancethe

originaleffectandleadtofurtherwarming,whereasnegativefeedback

effectswillmitigatetheoriginaleffect,leadingtowarmingthatisless

severethanwouldotherwisebethecase.

Afeedbackeffectisa

changewithinasystem

thatwilleitherenhance

ordiminishanoriginal

effect.

AlmostallthefeedbackeffectsatplayintheEarthsclimaticsystemat

present

are

positive.

It

is

predicted

that

severe

climate

change

will

lead

foreststodryout,increasingtheriskofcatastrophicforestfiresthatwill

inturnemitmoreCO2 (Figure1.6).Meltingpermafrostwillresultinan

importantpositivefeedback;thereisevidencethatwarmertemperatures

areleadingtothereleaseofmethanefrozeninthepermafrostwhich,in

turn,willspurfurtherwarming(Figure1.7).

Thesepositivefeedbackswillresultinaquickeningofclimatechange.Itis

difficulttopredicthowthepositivefeedbackswillplayout,andoverwhat

timehorizons.Whatscientistsdopredictisthattherewillcomeatipping

pointafterwhichitwillbeimpossibletohaltclimatechange.Oncethis

tipping

point

is

reached,

climate

change

will

continue

as

the

feedback

effectsalreadyintrainplaythemselvesout,irrespectiveofanymeasures

takentoreducefurtheremissions.Buttheresafurtherproblem:climate

scientistssimplydontknowwhatthetippingpointis.Somescientistssay

thatitispossiblewehavealreadypassedthetippingpoint;othersjudge

thatwewillpassitsometimeduringthiscentury.

Despitetheseuncertaintiesscientistsaresureaboutsomeofthemore

immediateconsequencesofanthropogenicclimatechange.Themelting

ofthecontinental iceshelvesinAntarcticaandGreenlandwillmean


23/260


Figure1.5

Ice

has

a

high

albedo

so

it

acts

like

a

giant

mirror,

reflecting

incoming

solar

radiation

back

into

space.

The

worldoceans

are

darker

than

sea

ice;

they

have

a

lower

albedo.

So

as

sea

ice

melts

due

to

climate

change

the

oceansabsorbmoresolarradiation,becomingwarmerintheprocess.Scientistscallthisapositivefeedback(Source:

Gore,

2006)


24/260

24 AWarmingWorld

morewater intheoceans,leadingtoincreasedsealevels.Amore

significant

factor

contributing

to

sea

level

rises

is

thermal

expansion;

seawaterwilloccupyanexpandedvolumeasitbecomeswarmer.

AccordingtoAR5,overtheperiod19012010globalmeansealevelrose

0.19m(IPCC,2013).Overtimesealevelriseswillleadtohuman

migrationfromlow-lyingcoastalareasandtheabandonmentoflow

lyingislands.

Thermal

expansion

is

the

increase

in

volume

of

matter

or

liquid,

in

this

caseseawater,inresponse

to

an

increase

in

temperature.

Climatechangeisstartingtodisrupttheseasons.Inthenorthern

hemispherethereisevidencethatthespringandsummerseasons

arestartingearlierandfinishinglater,withshortenedwinters.

Figure

1.6

In

2006

the

British

newspaperThe

IndependentonSundayproducedthisspeculativeheadlinefrom

the

year

2040.

Atimelywarning,orneedless

scaremongering?


25/260


Figure

1.7

Dawson

City,

Canada.

Melting

permafrost

hasdamaged

many

buildingsinAlaska,Canada,Scandinavia

and

Siberia

Themigratorypatternsofspeciesarechanging,withsomespecies

migratingtowardscoolerclimes.Themigrationsofspeciesand

ecosystemsthroughspacetakestwoforms:latitudinalmigration(towards

thepoles)andaltitudinalmigration(furtheruphill).Suchmigrations

cannot,however,bemaintainedindefinitely.Whenitisstilltoohotand

thereisnowhereelsetomigratetowhenaspecieshasmigratedtothe

topofthemountainor,ifpossible,tothepolarregionsthenaspecies

willeitheradapttothenewclimate,orbecomeextinct.The2013IPCC

reportsuggeststhatwhileregionallyuneven,itisexpectedthatthe

contrastinprecipitationbetweenwetanddryregionswillincrease.

ThegoldentoadofCostaRica(Figure1.8)hasbeencitedasthefirstglobal

warmingextinction.Thetoad,whichbredinspawningpoolsincloud

forests,appearstohavebeenunabletomovefastenoughwhenwarmer

temperaturesledtoariseinthecloudbasecausingspawningpoolstodry

out(Lynas,2007,pp.467).Laterstudiesquestionedthecompletevalidity

ofasinglenarrativeaboutthetoadsdisappearance.Thegoldentoad

(Incilius

(Bufo)

periglenes)

was

first

discovered

in

1964

in

a

localised

part

of

acloudforestintheMontverderegionofCostaRica.Thespecies

populationwasthereforealwaysaconservationconcern.Morethan1500

toadswereobservedin1987butthelasttoadwasseenin1989andthe

specieswasdeclaredextinctin2004.Theearlieranalysissuggestedthat

severedroughtslinkedtoElNioSouthernOscillation(ENSO)conditions

werethecause.However,therewereotherpotentialcausesincluding

pathogenattacksandlocalenvironmentaldegradation.Itistherefore

verydifficulttopinpointclimatechangeasthesingledirectcauseof

thetoadsdisappearance.The1990ssawtheconcurrentrisein


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26 AWarmingWorld

concernsaboutbiodiversitydeclineandclimatechangeandthereforeby

chancethisobscurespeciesbecametheiconorposterchildforthe

impactsofclimatechange(Ochoa-Ochoaetal.,2013).Themediaand

conservationNGOspickedupontheplightofthetoadandduringthe

1990s

it

quickly

became

a

symbol

of

the

impacts

of

climate

change.

NGOs

playaveryimportantroleinsteeringconservationagendas,addressing

fundinginitiativesandactingasgo-betweenswithpolicymakersand

raisingawarenesswiththepublic.

Figure1.8

Croaked

it?

Is

the

golden

toad

of

Costa

Rica

the

worlds first extinctionresultingfromanthropogenicclimatechange?

Doestheextinctionofonespecies

oftoadmatter?On itsownthis

extinctionmaynotbesignificant,but

toconcludeitdoesnotmatterwould

betomissabroaderpoint.

Amphibianssuchastoadsare

indicator

species.

An

indicator

speciesisthefirsttosufferafallinpopulation

whenanecosystemchangesorcomes

understress.Theextinctionofthetoadcouldbeafirstindicationthat

climatechangewillthreatentheEarthsbiologicaldiversity.

Suchanarrativecanalsohelptomakethepointthatthis isone

charismaticspeciesthathasledtoagreaterpublicunderstandingofthe

effectsofclimatechangeonotherspeciestheirrangeshift,lossor

extinctionduetoclimatechangenotwithstandingthefactthatthere

remainssomescientificuncertaintyabouttherebeingasinglecauseof

the

toads

extinction.

Biodiversitydepletionwill leadtochangesinevolutionasspeciesand

ecosystemstrytoadapttothewarmerclimate.Humansrelyon

biodiversitytoprovidefoodandmedicines,somajorlong-termchanges

tonaturewillhaveprofoundsocialconsequences.Thefullmagnitudeof

thesechangeswillnotbeclearforcenturiesandwilldependonthe

impactsandspeedofthewarming.

Despitethemanyscientificuncertainties inpredictingtheprecise

consequencesofclimatechangeitisclearthatsomeplaceswillbe

affectedmorethanothers,atleastintheshorttomediumterm.The

consequenceswillbeunevenlydistributed,withsomecountriesand

populationssufferingmorethanothers.Forexample, inAfrica,a

continentwheresomeregionsalreadysufferfromdrought-induced

ecosystemstress,increasingincidencesofdroughtarepredicted

(Figure1.9).Biodiversityrichcountries,principallythosewith large

expansesoftropicalforests,willsuffermorefrombiodiversitydepletion

thanbiodiversitypoorcountries.Low-lyingcoastalcountrieswillsuffer

landlossfromsea levelrises.Thelow-lyingsmall islandstateofTuvalu

inthePacificOcean islikelytobeoneofthefirstcountriestoceaseto


27/260


existassea levelsrise.Populationsdisplacedbytheeffectsofclimate

change,suchasfloodinganddrought,willmigratetocountriesthatare

lessthreatened,placingadditionalstressontheecosystemsand

economiesofthosecountries.However,itisdifficulttopredictthe

timescales

over

which

human

migration

will

take

place

and

the

regions

thatwillbemostaffectedbymigration.

Figure

1.9

This

leaflet,

circulated

by

the

charity

Christian

Aid,

makes

the

pointthatonedoesnotneed

tobepresentinanenvironmentinorderto

degrade

it.

Those

who

suffer

from

an

environmental

problem

are

not

necessarilythosewhocauseit

What isthepoliticalsignificanceofourdiscussionaboutthecausesand

consequencesofclimatechange?Threemainpointshaveemerged.First,

climatepoliticsisinformedbothbyscienceandbyscientific

uncertainty.

Although

scientific

knowledge

is

constantly

evolving

and

eliminatingsomeuncertainties,this ishappeningatthesametimeas

natureandsocietyundergofurtherchanges,creatingnewuncertainties.

Second,sincethestartoftheIndustrialRevolutionsomestateshave

contributedtoanthropogenicclimatechangemorethanothers.

However,thereisdisagreementbetweengovernmentsoverhowthese

differentlevelsofresponsibilityshouldbemeasured.Third,the

consequencesofclimatechangewillbeunevenlydistributedamongst

countries,someofwhichwillsufferheavierecologicalandeconomic


28/260

28 AWarmingWorld

coststhanothers.Thosecountriesthathavedonethemosttocause

climatechangewillnotnecessarilybethesameonesthatwillsuffer

from it.Therearethereforeimportantinequalitiesanddisagreements

betweenstatesoverthecausesandconsequencesofclimatechange.This

has

had

a

direct

bearing

on

the

political

responses

to

the

problem,

to

whichInowturn.

Chapter2ofthisbook

willexplorethe

relationship

between

climate

science

and

international

climate

politics

3 Modulequestion2:whathavebeenthepoliticalresponsestotheseproblems?

3.1 Framingtheissue

My

focus

in

this

section

is

not

on

domestic

climate

change

policy,

importantthoughthis is,butoninternationalclimatepolicymaking.

Iwanttoprovideyouwithaflavourofthemainpoliticaldisagreements

toclimatechangeandhowstateshavesoughttograpplewiththem.

Anthropogenicclimatechangeissometimesreferredtoasatragedyofthe

commons(Box1.2).Itisnotcausedbyanysinglegovernmentorcountry

actingalone,anditcannotbesolvedbyanygovernmentorcountryin

isolation.Actorsinallcountriescontributetotheproblem,hence

internationalcooperationisnecessaryiftheproblemistobesuccessfully

addressed.Socialscientistsdescribeclimatechangeasacollectiveaction

problem,

that

is,

a

problem

which

arises

when

an

individual

actors

aims

cannotbeachievedbyindividualactionalone.Ifanthropogenicclimate

changeistobesolved,apoliticalaccommodationmustbereached

betweenallstates,oratleastamongthosethatemitthemostgreenhouse

gases.

Acollectiveaction

problem

is

a

problem

which

arises

when

an

individual

actors aims

cannotbeachievedby

individualactionalone.

Chapter

4

will

develop

theideaofclimate

change

as

a

collective

action

problem

Box1.2 Thetragedyofthecommons

Somepeoplethinkofcollectiveactionproblemsasatragedyofthe

commons.ThisphrasecomesfromanarticlebyGarretHardinin

1968.

Hardin

argued

that

commons,

such

as

grazing

land,

will

face

degradationaseachindividualwillseektoexploittheresourceas

muchasheorshecan.Hardinarguedthatalthoughthiswill

benefittheshort-terminterestsofindividuals,theoveralloutcome

willbethelong-termdegradationofthecommonresource.

Hardinsideahasbeencriticisedbymanywhoarguethatit

misunderstandshowcommunitiesareabletocollectivelymanage

commonresourcesandpreventatragedyoccurring.Itcanbe

arguedthattheworldsatmosphereisaglobalcommon;nosingle


29/260

stateorindividualcanowntheatmosphere,whichisthecommon

propertyofallhumanity.LikeHardinslocalcommons,the

degradationofaglobalcommonoccurswhensomeactorspursue

theirself-interests,forexamplebyfailingtoreducetheir

greenhouse

gas

emissions.

Hardins

notion

of

the

tragedy

of

the

commonsdrawsattentiontoapoliticaldimensionthatruns

throughoutenvironmentalpolicymaking,namelytheconflict

betweenshort-termself-interestandthelong-termcollectivegood.


Inasenseallstateshaveasharedinterestincooperatingtosolveclimate

change.Why,then,isthisnothappening?Inordertostartthinking

aboutthedifferentapproachesthatstatesmaytakeininternational

climatenegotiations,considerthefollowingquestion.

Activity1.1

Whatdoesclimatechangemeantoyou?Forexample,ifyouwere

talkingaboutclimatechangewithfamily,friendsorcolleagues,what

wordswouldyouusetodescribetheproblem?Whatimpressionwould

youwishtoconveytothelisteneronhowyouperceivetheproblem?

Whenyouhaveconsideredthisforafewmomentsreadon.

Inthinkingthroughthisquestionyoumayhavechosentodescribe

climatechangeasacrisis.Or youmayhaveusedtheword problem.

Bothexpressionsconveythesensethatsomething is wrongandit

needstobe solved.Ormaybeyouseeclimatechangeasadistant

scientificdebatethat istoocloudedwithuncertaintytoaffectyourlife.

Mypointisthatpolitical leadersmayperceivethesameissuevery

differentlylikeyouandme,andasaresulttheymayproposevery

differentpolicies.Thenotionofframingisusefulhere.Thisholdsthat

statementsaboutrealityarealwaysshaped inpartbysocialinfluences.

Soenvironmental(andnon-environmental) issuesareframedby

different

political

interests

in

different

ways.

The

notion

of

issue

framing

holdsthatknowledge,eventsandpoliticsareinterpretedaccordingto

theperceptionsandinterestsoftheobserver.Thewayanissueisframed

willvaryaccordingtogeography,history,socialconditionsand

thepoliticalandeconomiccontextwithinwhichindividuals liveand

work(Forsyth,2003;Liberatore,1995).

Framing

is

a

social

science

concept

that

holds

that

statements

about

reality

are

always

shaped

at

least

in

part

bysocial

influences.

Someactorsframeclimatechangeintermsofurgency.Proponentsof

thisargumentclaimthattimeisrunningoutandimmediatemeasures

mustbetakentoheadoffcatastrophicclimatechange.SomeEuropean


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30 AWarmingWorld

Union(EU)countries,suchasGermanyandtheNetherlands,tend

towardsthisview,althoughthestrongestproponentsaresmallisland

stateswhoseexistencewillbethreatenedbysealevelrises,andwhich

haveformedthemselvesintotheAssociationofSmallIslandStates

(AOSIS).

Other

actors

frame

climate

change

as

an

issue

of

uncertainty.

Forexample,theGeorgeW.Bushadministration(200109)ofthe

UnitedStatesofAmerica(USA)tookthepositionthatthescientific

evidencedidnotjustifyinternationalactiontocutgreenhousegas

emissions.OneoftheargumentsmadebytheBushadministrationwas

thattheEarthisanevolvingbiophysicalentityanditstemperatures

havefluctuatedconsiderablyovertime;thereisnoclearscientific

evidencethatrecentclimaticchangesareanthropogenic.

ThepositionoftheBushadministrationwasinmarkedcontrasttothe

Clintonadministration(19932001)thatprecededit;BillClintonand

his

vice

president

Al

Gore

framed

climate

change

as

an

urgent

issue

onwhichtheUSAshouldtakethelead.Sotheframingsofanyonestate

maychangeaspoliticalleaderschangeandnewscientificknowledgeis

developed.IntheUSAsomepoliticaladvisershavearguedthatclimate

changeshouldbeframedasathreattonationalsecurity.BarackObama,

presidentsince2009,adoptedadifferentapproachdespiteconsiderable

oppositioninhisfirstterminoffice.In2013hesignedanexecutive

order toraiseclimatechangepreparedness.Theorder impelsfederal

agenciestoidentifychangestolandandwater policiesandregulations

tostrengthenclimateresilience.Mypointhere isdifferentframings

maysuggestdifferent,evencontradictory,policies.Statesthatanticipate

that

they

will

suffer

most

from

the

problem,

especially

over

the

short

term,tendtodemandstronginternationalpolicies.However,those

statesthatarebestabletosupplybigemissioncutsarethemajor

polluters.Thecooperationofthesestates,primarilythedeveloped

countriesandtheoilproducingstatesofthePersianGulf,is

essential ifclimatechangeistobearrested.However,thesestatesare

likelytoloseeconomicallyfromdeepemissioncuts,atleastoverthe

shortterm.

Chapter

5

will

consider

how

framing

climate

change

as

a

security

issue

has

affected

how

the

issue

is

handled

politically

ThefirstinternationalagreementonclimatechangewastheUnited

Nations

Framework

Convention

on

Climate

Change

(FCCC)

that

was

openedforsignatureattheUnitedNationsConferenceonEnvironment

andDevelopment(UNCED)inRiodeJaneiroinJune1992.Thissetout

twomainpolicystrategiestoaddressclimatechange.Mitigation

strategiesinvolvethereductionofgreenhousegassourcesorthe

enhancementofsinks.Examplesofmitigationstrategiesinclude

switchingfromfossilfuelstoalternativeenergysources,improvedenergy

efficiencyandplantingtreestoimprovesinkcapacity.Adaptation

strategiesseektoadjusttotheeffectsofclimatechange.Examplesinclude

evacuatingcoastalsettlementsassealevelsriseandconstructingseawalls.

Amitigationstrategy

seekstoreduce

greenhousegasemissions

or

enhance

carbon

sinks.

Anadaptationstrategy

seeks

to

adjust

to

the

effects

of

climate

change.


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In1997aprotocolwasagreedtotheconvention,theKyotoProtocol.This

isnotafreestandinginternationalagreement.Inotherwords,onlystates

thathaveratifiedthe1992conventionmayadopttheKyotoProtocol.

However,statesthathaveratifiedtheconventionareundernoobligation

to

ratify

the

protocol

as

well.

The

USA

has

ratified

the

FCCC

but

not

the

KyotoProtocol.Despitethis,theUSAremainsapowerfulstateinclimate

politicsthatcanexertinfluenceonallaspectsofclimatepolicy.

3.2 Whatispower?

Iwouldnowliketoconsiderfurthertheconceptofpower.Whatdoes it

meantosaythattheUSAisa powerfulstate?Therearedifferent

theoreticalapproachestopower,whichmaybroadlybedefinedasthe

capacityofoneactortoinfluenceanotheractortodosomethingthathe

orshewouldnototherwisehavedone.Butuponwhat ispowerbased?

Onecommontheoreticalapproachisthatpower isbasedonresources.

Astatehaspowerifitcanmobiliseresourcessuchaspeople,technology,

militarycapabilities,financeandsoon.Accordingtothisview,ifstate

AhasmoreresourcesthanstateB,thentheformerwillexertmore

influenceoverthelatter.ThepoweroftheUSAcomesfromthe

resources itcandeploytochangethebehaviourofotheractorsin

internationalpolitics,includingcarrotssuchasaid,technologytransfer

and loans,and stickssuchasthethreatofsanctionsandthe

withdrawalof trade.Exercisingpowercanthusinvolvepersuasion,

coercionoramixofthetwo.Becausesomeactorshavemoreresources

than

others,

power

is

distributed

unequally

across

the

international

politicalsystem.Differentstateshavedifferentpowerresourcesand

thereforeanunequalabilityto influenceoutcomes.Ininternational

politicstheexerciseofpowermayinvolveconflictbetweendifferent

states,althoughoftenconflictismediatedbydiplomacyand

negotiations, includingthroughinternationalorganisationssuchasthe

UnitedNations(UN).Powermaybeinstitutionalisedinother

organisationstoo,suchaslocalandnationalgovernments,business

corporations,citizensgroupsandtradeunions.

High-emitting

states

such

as

the

USA

have

the

power

to

block

an

agreementonclimatechangebyrefusingtocooperate.Althoughthe

KyotoprocesshascontinuedwithouttheUSA,apost-KyotoProtocolwill

onlybetrulyeffectiveifitincludestheUSA.Grubb(2011)arguesthe

caseforcontinuingsomefeaturesoftheKyotoProtocol,especiallythe

carbonaccountingsystem.Someofthestatesthatwillbeartheheaviest

costsofclimatechangehavevirtuallynopower ininternational

negotiationsandarealmostentirelydependentonwhatotherstates

agree.Sotherearesome important inequalitiesininternationalclimate

politics.Thosestatesthataremostvulnerabletoclimatechangeare


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32 AWarmingWorld

oftennottheonesthathavecausedtheproblem.Itcanbearguedthat

thevulnerablestatesaremorallyjustifiedinarguingthatwealthierstates

shouldtakeactiontotackleclimatechange.However,havingthemoral

highgroundveryrarelygivesavulnerablestateinfluenceovermore

powerful

ones.

Module

theme

2

International

political

divisions,inequalitiesand

distributionsofpower

Understandinginternationalclimatepolicythereforerequiresan

awarenessofinternationalpoliticaldivisions, inequalitiesand

distributionsofpower.Wealthierlow-lyingcountries,suchasthe

Netherlands,aremore likelytobeabletoaffordadaptationstrategies

comparedtopoorercountries,suchasBangladesh.Existingeconomic

inequalitiescanthushelptoshapefutureenvironmentalvulnerabilities.

In internationalnegotiationsdevelopingcountriesthatcannotafford

expensiveadaptationstrategieshavetendedtoargueforstrong

mitigationstrategies;andtheyhavearguedthatthedevelopedcountries

should

take

the

lead

on

mitigation,

as

they

have

polluted

the

most

inthepast.

Activity1.2

Letusconsiderthislaststatement.Is itmorallyrighttoarguethatthe

presentpopulationsofwealthydevelopedstatesshouldassume

responsibilityfortheactsofpreviousgenerations?Canyouthinkofany

argumentsforandagainstthisview?

Itcouldbearguedthatthepresentgenerationofdevelopedcountries

benefits

from

past

industrialisation

as

they

have

inherited

a

stronger

economic infrastructurethanpeople indevelopingcountries.They

shouldnowcurbtheiremissionssothatdevelopingcountriesmay

industrialise.Againstthisitcanbearguedthatwecannotchangewhat

hashappenedinthepast.Whatmattersnowiscurbingtheemissionsof

allcountries.Thisargumentisoftenmade intheUSA.In1997theUSA

Senatepassedbyavoteof950theByrdHagelresolution(namedafter

thetwosenatorswhoproposedit).TheresolutionstatedthattheUSA

shouldnotagreetoanyclimatechangeprotocolthat wouldresultin

seriousharmtotheeconomyoftheUnitedStatesandwhichdidnot

include

targets

for

emission

reductions

by

developing

countries

(US

Congress,1997).TheByrdHagelresolutionexplainswhytheUSAhas

notadoptedtheKyotoProtocol.ManyUSApoliticiansbothDemocrats

andRepublicanshavearguedthatasChinaandtheUSAhaveasimilar

annuallevelofCO2 emissions,theUSAshouldnotagreetocut its

emissionsunlessChinadoesthesame.Theresponseof theChinese

governmentisthattheUSAhashistoricallypollutedmorethanChina,

andthatChinaspercapitaemissionlevelsarefarlowerthanthoseof

theUSA.


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Thisisfurther illustratedbytheeconomicriseoftheBASICnations

(Brazil,SouthAfrica,IndiaandChina)(Grubb,2011).Thesefournations

formedanallianceduringtheCopenhagenClimateChangeConference

inDecember2009.(Theconferencewasthe15thsessionof the

Conference

of

the

Parties

to

the

FCCC

and

the

5th

session

of

the

ConferenceofthePartiesservingastheMeetingof thePartiestothe

KyotoProtocol.)Thesenationshavearguedthecasefordeveloping

countriestobegiventheopportunityforeconomicdevelopmentaswell

asbeingprovidedwithfinancialandtechnologicalsupport.

Thisdebatehasresulted insomethingofacompromiseininternational

climatepolitics.TheFCCCincludestheprincipleofcommonbut

differentiatedresponsibilities,whichassertsthatwhileallstateshavea

commonresponsibilitytotakemeasurestotackleclimatechange,

differentstateshavedifferentlevelsofresponsibility.Theprinciplethus

encompasses

the

idea

that

climate

change

is

a

cumulative

problem

thathasbuiltupovercenturies; itisnotsolelytheresultofrecent

greenhousegasemissions.However,thereisnoagreementonhowthis

principlecanbeappliedinpractice,andnoconsensusonhowdifferent

levelsofresponsibilityshouldbeallocated.

3.3 TheKyotoProtocol

Itwasnotuntilthe1997KyotoProtocolwasnegotiatedthatstateswere

abletoagreeanyemissionreductionstargets.Thedevelopedcountries

agreedtoreducetheiremissionsinlinewiththeprincipleofcommon

but

differentiated

responsibilities.

Eventually,

after

protracted

late-night

negotiating,theso-calledAnnexIstatesdevelopedcountriesand

countrieswitheconomiesintransition(theformercommunistcountries

ofeasternEuropeandtheformerSovietUnion)agreedtoanoverall

reduction inemissionsof5.2percentbelow1990levelsby2012.The

figureof5.2percentisanaverage;somestatesagreedtomore,someto

less.DuringtheKyotonegotiationstheEUproposedthatallAnnexI

statescuttheiremissionsby15percent.However,otherAnnexIstates

werenotpreparedtofollowtheEUs leadandtheEUeventuallyagreed

toan8percentcut.(NotethatEUstatesdonotnegotiateseparatelyin

international

environmental

negotiations;

all

EU

states

agree

a

common

negotiatingstrategy.)

WhydidtheEUfailtoadoptitsownproposalofcuttingemissionsby

15percentby2012?Inordertounderstandthereasonsweneedto

examinehowthecoststotheEUofa15percentcutmightaffectthe

EUscompetitiveness relativetootherAnnexIstates.Toachievea

15percentemissionscutEUcountrieswouldneedtoundertakesome

severemitigationpolicies,suchasinvestinginenergyefficient

technologyandclosingdownsectorsoftheeconomywithhigh


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34 AWarmingWorld

emissions.Thiswouldentailcostsfortheeconomythatwould

inevitablybepassedontoconsumersaspricerises.OtherAnnexIstates

thatdidnotfollowtheEUsleadwouldthenbeabletoselltheirenergy

andgoodsatlowerpricesrelativetotheEU.So iftheEUwasto

implement

deep

emissions

cuts

while

other

Annex

I

states

did

not,

these

othercountrieswouldgainaneconomicadvantageovertheEU.TheEU

waspreparedtostandadditionalcosts,butonlyifotherAnnexIstates

did likewise.Thesenegotiationsillustratethatpoliciesagreedbyone

statemayaffectthoseagreedbyothers.

HereIwouldliketoreturntotheearlierdiscussiononUSApowerand

internationalclimatepolitics.AlthoughtheClintonadministration

signedtheKyotoProtocolin1997itdidsoknowing,followingthe

ByrdHagelresolution,thatCongresswouldnotratifyit.TheEUwas

awareofthistoo,anditthenreconsidereditsoriginalproposal;theEU

did

not

want

to

be

committed

to

making

a

15

per

cent

cut

while

the

USAwas,ineffect,committedtonocutsatall.Thisillustratesaconcept

knownasthefirstmoverproblem.Ininternationalcooperationifallstates

movesimultaneouslythennostateisdisadvantagedrelativetoother

states.However,ifonestatemovesfirst,thatstatemaybearcoststhatdo

notfallonotherstates.TheEUwaspreparedtotakeamorallead,butonly

toacertaindegree;thecostsofmovingfirstwhileothersdidnotwere

suchthattheEUeventuallydecidednottofollowthroughonitsoriginal

proposal.(Notethatsometimesmovingfirstcanhaveadvantages.For

example,abusinessthatisfirsttodevelopandmarketgreentechnology

maygainmarketshareattheexpenseofitscompetitors.)

Thisdiscussionrelatestothetragedyofthecommons(Box1.2).If

severalactorsaredegradingaresource,itisnotintheself-interestofone

actortoceasedoingsoifotheractorsrefusetochangetheirbehaviour.

Moregenerally,inallinternationalnegotiationsthereisatension

betweentheneedforstatestocooperateinordertoagreeoutcomesthat

benefitall(collectivegains)andthecompetitionbetweenstatesaseach

seekstosecureoutcomesthatsuititsperceivednational interest

(individualgains).Anunderstandingofthistensionbetweenthepursuit

ofcollectivegainsontheonehandandindividualgainsontheother is

essential

to

understanding

all

environmental

negotiations,

both

between

statesandthosethatinvolveotheractorstoo.

YouhaveseenthatEUcountriesnegotiatetogetherininternational

environmentalpolitics.Ineffecttheypooltheirpower.Mostofthe

developingcountriesofAfrica,AsiaandLatinAmericadothesame;they

haveformedaUNnegotiatingcaucus,theGroupof77Developing

Countries(G77).TheG77arguesthatasthedevelopedstatesaremost

responsibleforanthropogenicclimatechange,theythushavean

obligationtohelpthedevelopingcountriestoreducetheirfuture


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emissionsthroughthetransferoffinancialassistanceand

environmentallycleantechnologies.TheG77hasframedclimatechange

asatechnicalissue,arguingthatwithoutsuchassistancetheemissionsof

thedevelopingcountrieswillinevitablyrise.Inclimatenegotiationsthe

EU

countries

and

Norway

have

showed

some

willingness

to

provide

some

newresourcestodevelopingcountries,whereastheUSA,Australia,

CanadaandJapanhavesofarbeenlesswilling.

ThedemandoftheG77foradditionalfinanceandtechnologycanbe

likenedtopricenegotiations.Ineffect,theG77statesweretryingto

extractasmuchastheycouldfromthedevelopedstatesinexchangefor

theircooperation.TheunspokenmessageduringtheKyotonegotiations

was, Ifyouwantustosigntheprotocolyoumustpayustodoso.The

developedstatesagreedtotransferonlyverylimitedfinancialand

technologicalresourcestodevelopingcountries.However,theydidopen

up

the

possibility

for

countries

to

gain

financially

through

the

adoptionofthreeflexibilitymechanisms(theso-called flexmechs).These

mechanismsallowtheAnnexIstatestomeettheirgreenhouseemission

targetsbypurchasingemissionreductionsorcreditsfromother

countries,includingdevelopingcountries(Box1.3).

Box1.3 TheKyotoProtocolexibilitymechanisms

n EmissionstradingallowsAnnexIstatesthatwillexceedtheir

KyototargetstobuyemissionscreditsfromotherAnnexIstates

whose

emissions

will

fall

below

their

Kyoto

target.

Critics

claim

thatsellingemissioncreditsformoneyismoreaboutprofit

thanclimatestabilisation.Emissionstradingisfurther

consideredinChapter3.

n TheCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM)allowsanAnnexI

statetopayforemissionmitigationorsinkactivitiesina

developingcountryandthendeducttheemissionssavedor

offsetasitsown.ExamplesofCDMprojectsapprovedinclude

windfarms,therecoveryofwasteheatfromindustryandits

conversionintoenergyandreforestationprojectstoincrease

carbon

sink

capacity.

Private

sector

businesses

are

encouraged

to

investinCDMprojects.Sincethebeginningofthe2010s,CDM

projectshavebecomeprevalentacrossthedevelopingworld.

n JointimplementationissimilartotheCDMalthoughitapplies

onlytoAnnexIstates.AnAnnexIstatemayinvestinemission

mitigationorsinkactivitiesinanotherAnnexIstate;theformer

canthencounttheemissionssavedasitsown.AswiththeCDM,

theprivatesectorisencouragedtoinvestinprojects.



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36 AWarmingWorld

4 Modulequestion3:whataretheconstraintsonmoreeffectivepolicyresponses?

Although

there

has

been

a

lot

of

international

political

activity

on

climatechange,atmosphericconcentrationsofgreenhousegases

continuetoincrease.Whyisthis,andwhataretheconstraintstomore

effectivepolicyresponses?

Beforeturningtothisquestion,wefirstneedtoconsiderwhat ismeant

byeffective.

4.1 Effectiveness

Effectivenessisdefinedinrelationtoadesiredoutcome.Apolicymaybe

considered

to

be

effective

if

it

changes

the

behaviour

of

actors

in

a

desireddirection,suchascuttingemissionsofgreenhousegases.

Effectivenessmaybe imaginedasacontinuumwithtwopoles.Atone

pole istheweaknotionofeffectiveness,namelyminorbehavioural

changesthatareinsufficienttoaddresstheproblemathand.Atthe

otherpoleisthestrongnotionofeffectiveness,namelyfundamental

shiftsinbehaviourthatproducethedesiredoutcomethatthepolicywas

intendedtorealise.Inthecaseofenvironmentalpoliciesthedesired

outcomeisoftendefinedasanimprovementin,orat leastthe

maintenanceof,environmentalquality.

Itneedstobestressed,however,thatenvironmentalqualityrarely

respondsstraightawaytoenvironmentalpolicies;thereareoftentime

lagsbetweenapolicybeingimplementedandadiscernibleimprovement

inenvironmentalquality.Thisleadsontoanimportantquestion:might

itbethecasethatrecentpoliciestocounterglobalwarmingareeffective,

buthavejustnotyethadsufficienttimetoaffecttheglobalmean

temperature?Wecertainlyneedtobeawareoftimelagswhen

consideringpolicyeffectiveness,asseenearlierinthechapter.Changes

intheatmosphericconcentrationofgreenhousegasesmaytakesolong

toworkthroughtheclimatesystemthatitmaytakedecades,possibly

centuries,

before

measures

to

tackle

climate

change

result

in

a

stable

atmosphere.Policiesthatcouldleadtorapidworldwidereductionsin

greenhousegasemissionswouldcertainlycountaseffective,even

though itmaybeseveralgenerationsbeforethefulleffectsofsuch

reductionswouldbeapparent.However,itisclearthatcontemporary

policiestoaddressclimatechange,whiletheymayhaveresultedinsome

modestbehaviouralchange,arenoteffectiveinthestrongsenseofthe

term,asgreenhousegasemissionsarecontinuingtorise.Inorderto

assesswhythisissoweneedtosearchfortheconstraints.


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4.2 Politicalconstraints

Thediscussionintheprevioussectionsuggeststhatoneareawhere

constraintsmayexististheinternationalpoliticalsystem.Asyouhave

seen,althoughstatescooperateinmakinginternationalpolicy,theyalso

compete.

International

inequalities

lead

some

states

to

perceive

they

are

thevictimsofinjustice,andsuchperceptionscomplicatethequestfor

effectivepolicies.Couldinternationalpoliticsbeorganiseddifferently

perhaps?Aretherealternativewaysinwhichtheinternationalpolitical

systemcanbegovernedthatmightleadtomoreeffectiveenvironmental

policies?Therearenoeasyanswershere,butIraisethesequestionsfor

youtobear inmindasyouexploreenvironmentalproblemsinthe

weeksahead.

Iftheorganisationofinternationalpoliticsisoneareawherewemayfind

constraintsthenasecondareaisdomesticpolitics.Hereisanexample.In

the

United

Kingdom

(UK)

in

2007

the

then

Labour

government

announcedmeasurestoreducegreenhousegasemissionsthrough,for

example,windfarmconstructionandgrantstohouseholderswhoinstall

solarpanels.Thatsameyearthegovernmentalsoannouncedplansfor

airportexpansionandthebuildingofnewroads.Asaircraftandcar

exhaustincludesCO2thesepolicieswillincreasegreenhousegas

emissions.In2013,theUKcoalitiongovernmentannouncedthatit

wouldcutthecostoftheEnergyCompanyObligation(ECO).Theaim

wastoshave3035offhouseholdenergybills.ECOwasaschemethat

placedlegalobligationsonenergycompaniestodeliverenergyefficiency

measures

in

the

domestic

sector,

focusing

on

hard-to-treat

homes

(solid

wallandcavitywallinsulation)andvulnerableconsumers(suchasthose

inlow-incomehouseholds,andelderlyandinfirmpeople).Replacingan

oldboilerisoneexampleofanenergyefficiencymeasure.Butthekey

issuehereishowmuchthesecutswouldhamperenergy-saving

improvements.

Whydogovernmentsoftenadoptseparatepolicieswhich,froman

environmentalstandpoint,areclearlycontradictory?Thereareanumber

ofpossibleexplanations.HereIwouldliketosuggestjustone.Withina

government,differentministriesanddepartmentsmayhavedifferent

policy

priorities.

According

to

Graham

Allisons

bureaucratic

politics

model,governmentpolicycanbeseenastheresultofinteractions

betweendifferentbureaucracies,eachofwhichhavedifferentinterests

andpriorities.Furthermore,inanyonestatesomebureaucracieswillhave

morepowerwithinthepolicy-makingprocessthanothers(Allison,1971).

Bureaucraticpoliticsmaythereforeresultinpolicyincoherenceandthe

dominanceofpolicymakingbysomegovernmentdepartmentsatthe

expenseofothers.

The

bureaucratic

politic

modelholdsthatpolicy

decisions

are

the

outcome

of

interactions

between

different

groups

and

ministries.


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38 AWarmingWorld

Allisonsbureaucraticpoliticsmodeldrawsourattentiontothe

complexityand messinessofpolicymaking.Individualstatesmaynot

alwayshavecoherentpolicyobjectives.Nationalenvironmentalpolicies

aretheproductofcontinualnegotiationbetweendifferentministries,

each

of

which

may

frame

environmental

issues

in

different

ways.

When

differentministrieshavedifferentprioritiesthencentralgovernmenthas

tomakechoicesbetweencompetingpolicyobjectives.Furthermore,

differentactorsmaylobbygovernmenttoadoptverydifferentpolicies.

Theseactorsincludenon-governmental organisations(NGOs)suchas

GreenpeaceandtheWorldWideFundforNature(WWF),tradeunions,

humanrightsgroupsandthebusinesssector.Somehavegreateraccess

todecisionmakersthanothersandconsequentlyareabletoexertmore

influenceoverpolicymaking.TheoppositionoftheUSASenatetothe

KyotoProtocolisoftenattributedtothepoweroftheAmericanoillobby

andthepoliticalinfluenceitwieldsintheUSA.

4.3 Knowledgeconstraints

Chapter

3

examines

the

role

that

economic

policy

instrumentscanplayin

limitingcarbondioxide

emissions

Anothersetofconstraintstoeffectiveenvironmentalpoliciesis

incompleteoruncertainknowledge.Policymakersdonotlike

uncertainty.Theywantfirm,clearpredictionsonwhichtobasetheir

decisions,butthisisrarelypossible.Forexample,economistsmay

disagreeonwherescarceeconomicresourcesshouldbedirected.Should

governmentresourcesbedirectedtowardsmitigationoradaptation

policies?Willtradinginemissionpermitsleadtoareduction incarbon

emissions?

Can

a

carbon

tax

help

to

reduce

CO2 emissions?

Different

economistsmayarriveatdifferentconclusionstothesequestions.

Asyouhaveseen,another importantareaofuncertaintyinclimate

policymakingisscience.Asaresultofscientificuncertaintiespolicy

makerscannotknowwhatthepreciseeffectsoftheirpolicieswillbe;the

futureisbothunknownandunknowable.Knowledgemaybedisputed,

withdifferentexpertsofferingdifferentinterpretationsoftheavailable

evidence.Attheirmostsevere,knowledgeconstraintscanpreventthe

identificationofaproblem.Evenwhenaproblem isknowntoexist,

knowledgegapsmaymasktherealextentoftheproblem,asthecaseof

global

dimming

illustrates.

AswellasemittingCO2 andothergases,fossilfuelburningmayemit

sulphurparticles.Theseparticlescontributetoacidrain.Theyalsoactas

aerosols.Anaerosolprovidesasitearoundwhichwatervapourcan

attach,leadingtoraindropformation.Aerosolemissionsincreasecloud

formationandturnthosecloudsthatdoform intogiantmirrorsthat

reflectsolarenergybackintospace.Theresult isacoolingeffectonthe

Earthstemperature.Scientistsrefertothisasthe enhancedaerosol

effectorglobaldimming.


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Whereasglobalwarmingisaboutincreasesinheat,globaldimmingis

aboutdecreasesinthelevelsofsunlightreachingtheEarthssurface.

Globaldimmingwasfirstidentifiedinthe1950s,although itisonly

sincethe1970sthatthefullextentoftheproblem inmaskingglobal

warming

has

been

understood

(Rotstayn

et

al.,

2006;

Travis

et

al.,

2002,

2004).Atleastsomeof theobservedglobalwarmingeffectsincethe

1970sisduetothesuccessofgovernmentsandbusinessesinEuropeand

NorthAmericaincounteringacidrainbyreducingaerosolemissions

fromindustry.Successindealingwithoneatmosphericproblemhas

thusexposedthefullextentofanother.

Thephenomenonofglobaldimmingsuggeststhatwemaybechanging

theworldmorequicklythanwecanunderstandit.Ifclimatepolicyisto

beeffectivethenscientificknowledgewillneedtoevolvefastenoughto

keepupwiththefullextentoftheconsequencesofhumanaction.

4.4 Theroleoftechnology

Technocentrismisthe

view

that

environmental

problemscanbesolved

throughinventionand

technology.

Itisoftenassertedthatoneconstrainttomoreeffectiveenvironmental

policieslieswithtechnology.Accordingtooneview,environmental

problemscontinuetoexistbecausethepresentpaceoftechnological

innovationistooslow.What isneededtosolveclimatechangeisthe

rapidinventionanddevelopmentofanewgenerationof cle

du311 earth in crisis book 1

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