drought monitoring bulletin · 2015-08-13 · drought monitoring bulletin 12th august 2015 ......
TRANSCRIPT
1/8
DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN
12th August 2015
AIR TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WATER BALANCE
Figures in this section present anomalies of the average air temperature and accumulated
water balance and classified values of average air temperature and water balance in
percentile classes for 60-days period from 10th
June to 8th
August 2015.
AVERAGE AIR TEMPERATURE ANOMALY (°C)
10th
JUNE – 8th
AUGUST 2015
AVERAGE AIR TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE
CLASSES
10th
JUNE – 8th
AUGUST 2015
Figure of average air temperature anomaly (left figure above) showed above average
temperatures in 60-days time period from 10th
June to 8th
August in major part of Balkan
HOT SPOT
Figure present accumulated water balance anomaly
from 1st April to 8
th August. Water balance in
Balkan Peninsula, with exception of Greece, was
classified in the 30 % of the driest years in record.
Water balance anomalies in these dry areas were up
to 240 mm below the long-term average. Area of
nort-eastern Romania and northern Moldova stand
out with values classified in the 5 % of the driest
years in record. Dry conditions were detected also in
parts of eastern Turkey. Meanwhile Greece and
whole western Turkey recorded wetter situation than
normal. In major part of western Turkey water
balance surplus were classified in the 5 % of the
wettest years in record.
2/8
Peninsula. Deviations of average air temperatures in major part of Slovenia, Hungary,
Croatia, western Romania, northern Serbia, western Bosnia and Herzegovina, majority of
Montenegro and northern Albania were up to 1.5 °C above the average. Negative anomalies
were detected in central and southern Greece, up to 1 °C below the normal values. In majority
of Balkan Peninsula average air temperatures were classified in 30 % of the warmest years in
record (right figure above).
Majority of the Peninsula faced with extreme high air temperatures from mid of July nearly
until the end of July. During the heatwave red alert was declared for a few days in Slovenia,
Hungary, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro due to the extreme high
air temperatures. In some places absolute maximum air temperature records were detected.
Maximum air temperatures exceeded 36 °C. The highest air temperatures in Croatia were
above 39 °C, in Slovenia and Hungary above 37 °C, in Serbia above 38 °C. In Mostar in
Bosnia and Herzegovina the highest recorded air temperature was 42 °C. Podgorica in
Montenegro was hit by the highest air temperature 41.5 °C and at the warmest night
temperature did not fall below 30 °C. Another heatwave in the northern Balkan Peninsula
began in the first days of August.
Air temperatures during the time period under consideration were in major part of Turkey
around long-term average. In the south were colder, up to 1.5 °C, meanwhile in the east, in
Eastern Anatolia Region, were warmer for about 1.5 °C. In the far east air temperatures also
exceeded average values for 2 °C and air temperatures were classified in the 5 % of the
warmest years in the record.
ACCUMULATED WATER BALANCE ANOMALY
(mm)
10th
JUNE – 8th
AUGUST 2015
ACCUMULATED WATER BALANCE PERCENTILE
CLASSES
10th
JUNE – 8th
AUGUST 2015
Balkan Peninsula was in 60-days period from 10th
June to 8th
August divided in two parts
according to the water balance, drier northern part and wetter southern part. Water balance
deficits were in eastern Slovenia, central and southern Hungary, major part of Serbia and in
northern Bulgaria up to 90 mm, in north-western Hungary, north-western and eastern Croatia,
northern part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in majority of Romania and in the north of Moldova
up to 150 mm below the long-term average. At the south of the Peninsula water surpluses
were at continent mainly up to 90 mm and at Peloponnesus 180 mm above the average values.
3/8
Water balance situation in Turkey was similar to those from past month. Water balance values
in major part of western, central and southern part of Turkey were classified in the 5 % of the
wettest years in the record. Water surpluses were mainly up to 60 mm, in parts even larger.
Dry areas were detected in the west of Eastern Anatolia Region and in central part of
Mediterranean Region where water deficits were up to 90 mm.
STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX
The drought situation with regard to the precipitation accumulation is presented by
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI calculation is based on the distribution of
precipitation over long time periods (30 years, in our case long-term average 1961–1990 was
used). The SPI can be calculated at various time scales which reflect the impact of the
drought on the availability of water resources. The long term precipitation record is fit to a
probability distribution, which is then normalised so that the mean (average) SPI for any
place and time period is zero. SPI values above zero indicate wetter periods and values less
than zero indicate drier periods. Only the dry part of the extreme anomalies is presented on
the maps.
Standardized precipitation index for July (left figure) showed extreme lack of precipitation in
central part of Balkan Peninsula and in northern part of Turkey. Lack of rain in whole
northern part of Peninsula coincided last month with extreme high air temperatures. Moderate
and extreme drought conditions due to the SPI were presented from Moldova in the east, in
some areas in Hungary in the north, continental part of Croatia and parts in Bosnia and
Herzegovina in the west and parts of the countries which border southern Serbia; Bulgaria,
FYRO Macedonia, Albania and Montenegro. The other isolated dry areas were at the east of
Bulgaria, at the Black Sea coast, through the European part of Turkey to the northern Turkey.
SPI for 3 months, from May to July (right figure), showed larger very dry area in eastern
Romania and in Moldova. Another dry area was detected from eastern Hungary in the north to
the western Romania at the east, through Serbia to the southern Bosnia and Herzegovina and
Montenegro at the west and northern Albania and northern FYRO Macedonia at the south.
4/8
Milder lack of rain was in belt from western Slovenia to the north-western Croatia and in
some isolated areas in north-eastern Turkey.
REMOTE SENSING – FRACTION OF VEGETATION COVER
Different surfaces have different reflectance spectra. This feature is used in vegetation
monitoring with remote sensing, which provides the best view on vegetation changes over a
wide range of temporal scales over large areas. Vegetation indices are dimensionless
measures and combine information from different channels. For generation of vegetation
indices three channels are used: 0.6 µm (visible part of the reflectance spectrum), 0.8 µm
(near infrared part) and 1.6 µm (middle infrared part). One of the vegetation indices that
have proved to react well in dry conditions is FVC – fraction of vegetation cover. It shows
fraction of the total pixel area that is covered by green vegetation. FVC is relevant for
agriculture, forestry, environmental management and land use, hydrology, natural hazards
monitoring, drought conditions … Values varies according to the vegetation stage and of
course to the damages of possible natural disasters as drought, floods, frost … FVC values
are lower at the beginning of the growth season, the highest at the full vegetation
development and then FVC slowly dropped with vegetation senescence. Line shape depends
on sort of the vegetation.
Graphs below present the vegetation situation recorded on 9th
August in some regions in
some south-eastern Europe. FVC values for year 2015 are presented as green line. Graphs
also include reference line (2007–2014) in black, and lines in red (year 2013), in orange (year
2007, for Slovenia year 2006) for comparison.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA)
Region Lijevče polje – Laktaši Bijeljina
Trebinje
High air temperatures and lack of rain reflected
in descending FVC index in chosen three
locations in Bosnia and Herzegovina. FVC
values in Laktaši and Bijeljina were at the
beginning of July near the average values and in
Trebinje for about 5 % above the average.
During July FVC rapidly fall, up to 15 % in one
month. In first decade of August FVC were
deep below the average in Laktaši in the north
and Bijeljina in the east of the country and approached normal values in Trebinje in the south.
5/8
MONTENEGRO – Podgorica
Old vineyards at the location of remote sensing
were in this season replaced by new one. This is
the reason of the low FVC values at the
beginning of the season. Reason of the rapidly
descending of the FVC values in July was heat
wave with extreme high air temperatures at day
and night. Vegetation were in drought and heat
stress. FYRO MACEDONIA
Tikveš Region – Kavadarci Ovče Pole Region – Lozovo
FVC values which represent vineyard vegetation in the south-east of the country (Tikveš Region)
and wheat development in Ovče Pole Region were since last reporting above the average values
but have descended all the time, following the average line.
REPUBLIC OF SERBIA
Smederevsko vinogorje – Malo Orasje Vršacko vinogorje – Veliko Središte
Descending of FVC values at the chosen locations in July and at the beginning of August were
faster than reference line. FVC values which represent vineyard development in central and
eastern part of the country dropped below the average in first decade of July in Smederevsko
vinogorje and in third decade of July in Vršacko vinogorje. FVC was in first days of August for
about 7 % below the average in Smederevsko vinogorje and slightly below the average in Vršacko
vinogorje.
6/8
SLOVENIA
Prekmurje Region – Murska Sobota
Third and start of the fourth heat wave in this
year’s summer lowered FVC in July and August
below the average values and it still descending.
FVC is for about 7 % below the average in the
first decade of August.
ROMANIA
Bucovina
Bucovina is the region in north-eastern
Romania where rain deficit is present from the
start of the vegetation season. FVC values have
been below the average for the whole season.
Values are more or less constant from
beginning of June until now and are for about
15 % below the average.
Figure below shows anomaly of accumulated monthly FVC in comparison with past eight
years (2007–2014) and is used experimentally.
from 26th
June to 25th
July 2015
7/8
from 11th
July to 9th
August 2015
Fraction of vegetation cover index showed anomalies in areas in eastern Hungary, north-
eastern Serbia, western and eastern Romania and northern Moldova in first decade of July.
FVC intensified during the July and at the beginning of August. A lot of new scattered areas
arose in the whole northern part of Balkan Peninsula.
Larger deviation detected in the eastern part of the Black Sea Region in Turkey is probably
consequence of the last year’s frost which impacted hazelnut trees.
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/crunch-time-as-threat-to-turkey-s-
hazlenut-harvest-has-wider-impact-1.2155853
IMPACT REPORTS
Heat and drought stress on crops caused by extreme high air temperatures, tropical nights and
lack of rain were detected in second half of July in Balkan Peninsula.
Reports from Romania describe the most difficult situation due to drought in north-eastern
part of the country, where wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflowers yields are expected to be
lower compared to those in 2014. There are also reports about Danube’s water discharge
down to half its usual average.
http://www.romania-insider.com/drought-destroys-romanias-harvests/153515/
http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2015/08/04/379708/romanian-farm-losses-at-2bn-euros-from-
drought-associations.html
http://www.rri.ro/en_gb/the_effects_of_drought_in_romania-2534812
A drought situation is also reported from Moldova, where many rivers have low flows after
weeks of heat. Yellow flag for hydrological drought is declared until mid of August. Due to
the unfavorable conditions in agriculture grain maize yield in Moldova is expected to be 50 %
lower compared to last year due to severe drought. The farmers also lost pasture feed
capability.
http://www.trm.md/en/social/seceta-a-pus-stapanire-pe-moldova/
http://www.trm.md/en/social/meteorologii-au-prelungit-codul-galben-de-seceta-hidrologica/
http://www.globalmeatnews.com/Livestock/Drought-hits-animal-feed-in-Moldova
8/8
Dry conditions caused damage on yields of maize, soy and also fruit crops in Serbia.
http://www.tanjug.rs/full-view_en.aspx?izb=193223
Unusually high air temperatures caused extent wildfires in Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia and
Herzegovina and also in Greece.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/wildfires-threaten-villages-balkans-
150721161805444.html
OUTLOOK
Figure presents the model simulations of the 60-days water balance anomaly (mm) for the
time period from 20th
June to 18th
August. Water balance conditions are expected to get
better in areas of Balkan Peninsula where water deficit exists. Exceptions are Moldova and
eastern Romania, where water balance anomalies will persist in the same range in very dry
condition, while in Greece water surplus will continue.
Water deficit in central part of eastern Turkey is expected to deepen for a little bit, while
water balance surplus in will be similar to antecedent decade.
Methodology
Drought monitoring bulletin is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) model simulations over SE Europe, SPI index calculations and
remote sensing. Precipitation data is provided by Global Precipitation data Centre (GPCC; gpcc.dwd.de). NWP simulations are performed
with Non-hydrostatical Meso-scale Model (NMM, see: http://www.dtcenter.org/wrf-nmm/users/). Historical DMCSEE model climatology
was computed with NMM model for time period between 1st January 1979 and 31st December 2013. European Center for Medium Range
Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim data set (see: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim) was used as input
for simulations. Long term averages (1979–2013), used for comparison of current weather conditions, are obtained from simulated data set.
Comparison of current values to long term averages provides signal on potential ongoing drought severity.