dr. sebastian e. heath - foot-and-mouth disease, animal agriculture and public opinion

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FMD, Animal Agriculture FMD, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion and Public Opinion NIAA 2013 Annual Conference NIAA 2013 Annual Conference Merging Values and Technology Merging Values and Technology Sebastian E Heath, VetMB, PhD Sebastian E Heath, VetMB, PhD Washington, DC Washington, DC

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Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion - Dr. Sebastian E. Heath VetMB PhD, Branch Chief for Program Development - FEMA, from the 2013 NIAA Merging Values and Technology conference, April 15-17, 2013, Louisville, KY, USA. More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2013-niaa-merging-values-and-technology

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

FMD, Animal Agriculture FMD, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinionand Public Opinion

NIAA 2013 Annual ConferenceNIAA 2013 Annual ConferenceMerging Values and TechnologyMerging Values and Technology

Sebastian E Heath, VetMB, PhDSebastian E Heath, VetMB, PhD

Washington, DCWashington, DC

Page 2: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Immediate devastation from stamping out is usually attributed to cost of operations and personal loss

However, in the long run, restructuring of industry and changing priorities for rural areas have a much larger impact

Page 3: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

The US has a Perfect Track The US has a Perfect Track Record of Successful Response Record of Successful Response

to Foreign Animal Disease to Foreign Animal Disease OutbreaksOutbreaks

Success measured in terms of:Success measured in terms of:EradicationEradication

Cost ComparisonCost ComparisonDurationDuration

Command and ControlCommand and Control

Page 4: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

However, Technical Plans do not Address the However, Technical Plans do not Address the Full Spectrum of Impacts of an Outbreak Full Spectrum of Impacts of an Outbreak

Traditional accounting in outbreaks uses talliesTraditional accounting in outbreaks uses tallies Interpreted as sum of direct and indirect costsInterpreted as sum of direct and indirect costs

Agriculture is driven by economic efficiencyAgriculture is driven by economic efficiency Economist approach (cost categories)Economist approach (cost categories)

Transaction costsTransaction costs Indirect cost/Lost RevenueIndirect cost/Lost Revenue Marginal costsMarginal costs Opportunity costsOpportunity costs

Emergencies are economic disruptions (shocks)Emergencies are economic disruptions (shocks)

Successful plans minimize disruption Successful plans minimize disruption Either driven by or shape public opinionEither driven by or shape public opinion

Page 5: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Tiers of Preparedness/PlanningTiers of Preparedness/Planning TacticalTactical

Focus on managing personnel, equipment and resourcesFocus on managing personnel, equipment and resources Facilitates incident responseFacilitates incident response

OperationalOperational Defines roles and responsibilities, tasks, integration and Defines roles and responsibilities, tasks, integration and

actions required of jurisdictions, departments, agencies and actions required of jurisdictions, departments, agencies and private sectorprivate sector

Facilitates unified responseFacilitates unified response

StrategicStrategic Describes how jurisdiction wants to meet responsibilities Describes how jurisdiction wants to meet responsibilities

over the long-termover the long-term Driven by policy and (public) prioritiesDriven by policy and (public) priorities

Page 6: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

To Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks To Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks It Is Helpful to Study How Costs are DistributedIt Is Helpful to Study How Costs are Distributed

Costs arising in emergencies:Costs arising in emergencies: Transaction costsTransaction costs

Direct costsDirect costs Lost revenueLost revenue

Indirect costsIndirect costs Marginal costsMarginal costs

Cost of proving disease statusCost of proving disease status Opportunity costsOpportunity costs

What else could have been done with theWhat else could have been done with thesame resources?same resources?

Economic multiplier effectEconomic multiplier effect

Operational

Tactical

Strategic

Costs Affected by Preparedness/Planning Efforts

Page 7: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Transaction (Direct) CostsTransaction (Direct) Costs Commonly confused with tally of operational Commonly confused with tally of operational

outlays outlays E.g., “The FMD outbreak in the UK cost the E.g., “The FMD outbreak in the UK cost the

livestock industry livestock industry £2.4 billion”£2.4 billion”

Better: the additional cost of doing businessBetter: the additional cost of doing business ““The cost to administer operational outlays was …”The cost to administer operational outlays was …” 2005 FMD hoax in New Zealand: NZ$ 2M2005 FMD hoax in New Zealand: NZ$ 2M Federal compensation in US (non-indemnity)Federal compensation in US (non-indemnity) Interest on loansInterest on loans

Page 8: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Transaction Cost Example:Transaction Cost Example:Moorlands Hotel, North York MoorsMoorlands Hotel, North York Moors

In 2003 the In 2003 the Moorlands Hotel in Moorlands Hotel in North York Moors, North York Moors, closed because of closed because of over £25,000 in Bank over £25,000 in Bank Charges on Loans Charges on Loans that could not be that could not be repaid after the FMD repaid after the FMD OutbreakOutbreak

Page 9: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Lost Revenue (Indirect Costs)Lost Revenue (Indirect Costs) Lost incomeLost income

Livestock: Lost productionLivestock: Lost production Tourism income in the UKTourism income in the UK

Affected by co-dependencies Affected by co-dependencies of systemof system Often cannot be foreseen Often cannot be foreseen

completelycompletely Should not be assumed to Should not be assumed to

apply to all situationsapply to all situations

Page 10: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Lost Revenue Example: Shambles, York, 2006Lost Revenue Example: Shambles, York, 2006

“A combination of 9/11, the SARS and foot and mouth scares a few years ago, together with the floods, had a massive impact in reducing the number of tourists, particularly big-spending Americans.”

http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/display.var.1333798.0.0.php

Page 11: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Marginal CostsMarginal Costs

The increase in cost needed to produce moreThe increase in cost needed to produce more For example:For example:

In Veterinary Practice: Cost of staff overtime to see In Veterinary Practice: Cost of staff overtime to see more clientsmore clients

In Animal Disease Control Programs: Increased cost In Animal Disease Control Programs: Increased cost of doing business, e.g., cost of of doing business, e.g., cost of Active surveillance over existing (passive) surveillanceActive surveillance over existing (passive) surveillance

US BSE surveillance program US BSE surveillance program

Operations (contracts)Operations (contracts) IndemnityIndemnity

Page 12: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Marginal Cost ExampleMarginal Cost Example

Federal Cost (non-indemnity) for Response to Disease Federal Cost (non-indemnity) for Response to Disease Outbreaks (23-89% of disbursements)Outbreaks (23-89% of disbursements)

END

Compensation

25%

Transportation

1%

Contracts

58%

Supplies

16%

BSE

Compensation

37%

Transportation

6%

Contracts

31%

Supp lies

26%

WAS

Compensation

89%

Transportation

3%

Contracts

5%

Supplies

3%

GON

Compensation

23%

Transportation

0%

Contracts

57%

Supplies

20%

Page 13: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Opportunity CostOpportunity Cost Cost of choosing one option over anotherCost of choosing one option over another

Finite resources dictate that every option/choice occurs at Finite resources dictate that every option/choice occurs at the expense of anotherthe expense of another

Costs are determined by asking:Costs are determined by asking: What will not get done as a result of my choice?What will not get done as a result of my choice? Which option has greater cost (immediately vs. long term)?Which option has greater cost (immediately vs. long term)?

Magnitude of opportunity cost driven in Magnitude of opportunity cost driven in Short term by size and distribution of affected stakeholder Short term by size and distribution of affected stakeholder

groupsgroups Long term by economic multiplier effect resulting from Long term by economic multiplier effect resulting from

redistributionredistribution

Page 14: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Opportunity Costs Resulting from Opportunity Costs Resulting from Response to FMD in the UK Response to FMD in the UK

UK paid $263M less in subsidies in 2002 than in UK paid $263M less in subsidies in 2002 than in 20012001 Approximately equal to cost of lost tradeApproximately equal to cost of lost trade

By 2006 waste management at FMD burial sites By 2006 waste management at FMD burial sites had become a lucrative businesshad become a lucrative business

Page 15: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Opportunity Cost Example:Opportunity Cost Example:Carcass Disposal at Great Orton Airfield, CumbriaCarcass Disposal at Great Orton Airfield, Cumbria

• In 2001, 466,312 carcasses, comprising 448,508 sheep, 12,085 cattle and 5,719 pigs were buried in 26 trenches.• £12M to build facility

• In 2006, still disposing of 240m3 leachate/week• £850,000/yr. to

maintain

Page 16: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Opportunity Cost Example: Opportunity Cost Example: Ash Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial SiteAsh Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial Site

In 2001, 174,660 In 2001, 174,660 carcassescarcasses buried £7.5M to £7.5M to

constructconstruct

In 2003, “Ash Moor In 2003, “Ash Moor site to be restored to site to be restored to farmland”farmland”

In 2006 £240,000/yr. In 2006 £240,000/yr. to maintain (security, to maintain (security, drainage, drainage, maintenance)maintenance)

Page 17: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Opportunity Cost: Economic Multiplier EffectOpportunity Cost: Economic Multiplier Effect

For every dollar by invested (incl. government For every dollar by invested (incl. government spending) how much more spending) how much more Spending (demand) and employment (jobs) are generatedSpending (demand) and employment (jobs) are generated Agriculture vs. Industrial vs. Services vs. Construction Agriculture vs. Industrial vs. Services vs. Construction

SectorsSectors Choices often driven by public interestsChoices often driven by public interests

For exampleFor example Does paying for cleaning and disinfection after an FAD Does paying for cleaning and disinfection after an FAD

generate more economic growth and jobs if the work is generate more economic growth and jobs if the work is done by federal employees or contractors?done by federal employees or contractors? Short term: Added income supports comparable increases in Short term: Added income supports comparable increases in

spendingspending Long term: Contracts supports more jobsLong term: Contracts supports more jobs

Page 18: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Long term outcome:Long term outcome:Moorlands Hotel, North York MoorsMoorlands Hotel, North York Moors

By 2012 the hotel By 2012 the hotel was under new was under new management and management and rated amongst the rated amongst the best hotels in best hotels in YorkshireYorkshire

http://www.britainsfinest.co.uk/bedandbreakfast/bedandbreakfast.cfm/searchazref/moorlands-country-house

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6722995.stm

Page 19: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Economic Recovery from 2001 FMDEconomic Recovery from 2001 FMDShambles, YorkShambles, York

The Shambles, York, is now a major tourist destination with international recognition

Page 20: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Economic Recovery: Ash Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial SiteEconomic Recovery: Ash Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial Site

• In 2010, “Landfill gives Butterflies a Boost” … awarded £257,469 to help boost the fortunes of a number of fritillary butterfly species on Dartmoor.

• In 2013 “Ash Moor is a real rags to riches story, which now has a far more positive future. Wildlife Trust is managing the woodland and hedgerows and putting in a series of pond and scrapes. The site is buzzing with wildlife … so hopefully lots for people to see”

http://www.dartmoor-npa.gov.uk/__data/assets/image/0008/93950/20110516-DNPA-NB-Pearl-bordered-Fritillary-web.jpg

Page 21: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

To Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks To Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks It Is Helpful to Study How Costs are DistributedIt Is Helpful to Study How Costs are Distributed

Costs arising in emergencies:Costs arising in emergencies: Transaction costsTransaction costs

Direct costsDirect costs Lost revenueLost revenue

Indirect costsIndirect costs Marginal costsMarginal costs

Cost of proving disease statusCost of proving disease status Opportunity costsOpportunity costs

What else could have been done with theWhat else could have been done with thesame resources?same resources?

Economic multiplier effectEconomic multiplier effect

Operational

Tactical

Strategic

Costs Affected by Preparedness/Planning Efforts

Page 22: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Projected Impact of Stamping Out FMD on 60 Projected Impact of Stamping Out FMD on 60 Farms in a Single U.S. Rural CountyFarms in a Single U.S. Rural County

Operational costsOperational costs $1.4 million/week$1.4 million/week 750 personnel750 personnel

Local impact Local impact Approx. $6.4 million per week to the Gross County Product Approx. $6.4 million per week to the Gross County Product Lost jobs (1 year): Lost jobs (1 year):

752 from food manufacturing752 from food manufacturing 1,466 from retail1,466 from retail 1,128 from hospitality 1,128 from hospitality 1,203 from health and social1,203 from health and social

Stop movement estimated to cost over $700,000 in lost Stop movement estimated to cost over $700,000 in lost revenue to producers and owners of non-susceptible species revenue to producers and owners of non-susceptible species

Page 23: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Special Interests often Drive Strategic Choices affecting Opportunity Cost and the Impact of

Economic Multipliers

Public Opinion Challenges to Agriculture that will likely impact decisions during an FMD outbreak Environment Animal Welfare Food Safety Economics Biotechnology

Page 24: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:

EnvironmentEnvironment

Image: Paul de Lhama on flickr

http://www.extension.org/sites/default/files/w/b/be/Feature_for_eXtension_beef.jpg

In the Netherlands during the 2006 AI outbreak public concern arose over why so much pollution at home to support exports abroad

Little discussion on use of marginal land and opportunity costs

Page 25: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Impact of Environmental Lobby on Taiwan Impact of Environmental Lobby on Taiwan Swine Industry after FMD in 1998Swine Industry after FMD in 1998

Taiwan EPA issued a moratorium on restocking swine …

.. unless farmer could dispose of manure in 3-stage sewer handling facility or relocate

Page 26: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Animal WelfareAnimal Welfare

http://www.cattleandhuntranch.com/Uploads/76/68/17668/images/cowcalf.jpg http://www.tinksbeef.com/files/feedlot2.jpg

http://advocacy.britannica.com/blog/advocacy/wp-content/uploads/chickens-4.jpghttp://manhattaninfidel.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/chickens.jpg

http://gpvec.unl.edu/files/westernu/swine/2009%20Presentations/Danish%20gestation%20crates.JPGhttp://www.rightonsofshipston.co.uk/images/piglet_closeup_443.jpg

Public opinion on animal welfare supports animals being able to roam free.But there is little consideration of animal husbandry on welfare in disasters

Page 27: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Animal Welfare is a Major Concern in Animal Welfare is a Major Concern in DisastersDisasters

More animals suffer in disasters in More animals suffer in disasters in natural settings than when housednatural settings than when housed E.g., floods, blizzard, heatE.g., floods, blizzard, heat

Yet intensive agriculture is often Yet intensive agriculture is often cited as causecited as cause

http://assets.knowledge.allianz.com/img/dead_cow_rtr185c4_ah_1_50468.jpg

http://olsonfarlow.com/wp-content/themes/olson-farlow/scripts/timthumb.php?src=http://olsonfarlow.com/wp-content/uploads/Omo-River-Ethiopia-National-Geographic-126.jpg&w=780&q=80&a=t

Page 28: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Food SafetyFood Safety

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/c213.0.403.403/p403x403/547019_10151248655940518_830595605_n.jpg

http://baby-boomer-depot.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Row-upon-row-of-Processed-Foods.jpg

Growing popular interest in locally sourced organic food with novel

preparation and retail

Little discussion on cost and affordability of food, quality control and variety

http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/blogs/youngandhungry/2010/09/15/vote-your-favorite-food-truck-into-the-inaugural-curbside-cook-off/

Page 29: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks can Turn Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks can Turn on Food Safetyon Food Safety

Loss of consumer confidence Loss of consumer confidence Loss of value added jobsLoss of value added jobs Driven by Driven by

Risk communicationRisk communication Killing animals to save animals is an inherently conflicted Killing animals to save animals is an inherently conflicted

message message Assumption is that killing animals will protect public health Assumption is that killing animals will protect public health

Will the public accept this?Will the public accept this? Response options Response options

If the methods used for stamping out adversely affects If the methods used for stamping out adversely affects consumer confidenceconsumer confidence

Why do we do it?Why do we do it?

Page 30: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:EconomicsEconomics

In it for the moneyIn it for the money Trade Protection is goodTrade Protection is good

VersusVersus

Meat is in high demand worldwideMeat is in high demand worldwide Economic efficiency is key to sustainabilityEconomic efficiency is key to sustainability Innovation provides competitive advantageInnovation provides competitive advantage Disease free trade partners are better for Disease free trade partners are better for

exportersexporters

Page 31: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

PER CAPITA MEAT CONSUMPTION vs. GNP(1971-95 country averages)

0

1

2

3

4

5

4 5 6 7 8 9 11Log per capita GNP

Lo

g p

er

cap

ita

Mea

t C

on

su

mp

tio

n

Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.

10

China

India

Trend

Philippines

Page 32: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

The highest growth and demand from agriculture is for The highest growth and demand from agriculture is for animal derived productsanimal derived products

Commodity Growth rate per annum (%)Cereals 2.6Fruit 3.5Vegetables 4.8Fish 5.5Pork 6.3Poultry 7.7

Projected Growth in Global Meat Demand, 1997-2020

Poultry40%

Pork31%

Beef24%

Sheep/Goat5%

FAO, IFPRI, 1999

Page 33: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Changes in Livestock ProductionChanges in Livestock Production

AsiaSSA

WANACSA

Grazing

Mixed

Industrial

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Per

ce

nt

An

nu

al

Gro

wth

Region

System

Annual Growth Rates of Meat Production Systems

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

An

nu

al G

row

th R

ate

(mea

n

%)

Grazing Livestock Mixed Farming Industrial Production

Farming System

Annual Growth Rate of Livestock Production Systems (1985-90)

Page 34: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

4,500.0

5,000.0

5,500.0

6,000.0

6,500.0

7,000.0

7,500.0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

Vo

lum

e (

MM

T X

1,0

00

)

FMD Outbreak

Mean (1991-7): 6,526 MMT

Mean (1998-2004): 5,776 MMT

Decrease by 11.5%

Impact of FMD on Soy Imports (Pig Feed) (mostly US soy exports) to Taiwan

Page 35: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Impact of Syria Becoming Free of FMD

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

US

Fee

d G

rain

s E

xpo

rts

(MT

) o

rS

yria

n C

attl

e P

op

ula

tio

n (

X1,

000)

Mean: 219,000 MT

Mean: 662,000 MT

Cattle population (head)

FMD-positive FMD-free

Grain Exports (MT)

Page 36: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Trends in Uruguay Beef Exports

¿

¿

¿

¿

u[

u]

u`

ub

ue

ug

¾ î M } -

Year

To

ns

(X1,

000)

FMD positive FMD free

Exports to FMD free countries

Exports to FMD infected countries

Page 37: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Destination of Uruguay Beef Exports

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000

Year

Per

cen

t o

f T

ota

l

Mercosur

USA

Israel

Other

NAFTA

Other than USA

USA

Other than USA

Page 38: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Global Livestock Populations, US Feed Exports

and Foot and Mouth Disease(5-year mean, 1997-2001)

Cat

tle

Cat

tle

Pig

s

Pig

s

Feed

grai

ns

Feed

grai

ns

Soy

bea

ns a

nd m

eal

Soy

bea

ns a

nd m

eal

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

FMD-free FMD-infectedCountry FMD Status

Glo

bal L

ives

tock

Pop

ulat

ion

(%#)

or

US

Fee

dgra

in E

xpor

ts (

%M

T)

N=84 N=86

Page 39: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Narrow Views of the Economics of Animal Narrow Views of the Economics of Animal Agriculture Undermine Its Many BenefitsAgriculture Undermine Its Many Benefits Meat is a desirable food – worldwideMeat is a desirable food – worldwide

Growing demand correlates with increased incomeGrowing demand correlates with increased income

Meat adds value to Meat adds value to Pasture (developing countries)Pasture (developing countries) Feed grains (North America)Feed grains (North America)

Value added agriculture productsValue added agriculture products Create jobs (processing, distribution, retail and export)Create jobs (processing, distribution, retail and export) Exports bring in foreign currencyExports bring in foreign currency

A country’s animal disease status affects trade balanceA country’s animal disease status affects trade balance

Every $1 million of value added through agriculture supports Every $1 million of value added through agriculture supports approximately 5,000 jobsapproximately 5,000 jobs

Page 40: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:BiotechnologyBiotechnology

http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/files/2012/12/Transgenic-vs-non-transgenic-siblings-large.jpg

Public Opinion condones terms such as

“Frankenfoods” and questions the value of

vaccinating children

But little discussion over progress made through science

Page 41: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Reports on Science, Disasters and Reports on Science, Disasters and Urban Myths are not well MatchedUrban Myths are not well Matched Media demand is for crises and sensationsMedia demand is for crises and sensations In response media supplies disproportionate number of In response media supplies disproportionate number of

reports on, e.g.,reports on, e.g., Vaccine and autismVaccine and autism GMO’s and safety concernsGMO’s and safety concerns Threat of diseases from animalsThreat of diseases from animals

Growing resentment of vaccines in Pakistan, Nigeria Growing resentment of vaccines in Pakistan, Nigeria and in many North American familiesand in many North American families

As progress is made will the public laud science or As progress is made will the public laud science or remember incomplete and pseudo facts?remember incomplete and pseudo facts?

Page 42: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Systems Mapping Helps Identify Interests and Systems Mapping Helps Identify Interests and Contributions Before a Crisis StrikesContributions Before a Crisis Strikes

Public Opinion can become a dominant driver of Public Opinion can become a dominant driver of strategic choices in a crisisstrategic choices in a crisis Interests of the public and agriculture are often very Interests of the public and agriculture are often very

focusedfocused Focused interests have merit but only Focused interests have merit but only contributecontribute to to

quantity and quality of final productquantity and quality of final product

Systems Mapping is an important tool for Systems Mapping is an important tool for shaping the future or, if ignored, allowing shaping the future or, if ignored, allowing special interests to determine the futurespecial interests to determine the future

Page 43: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Systems Map: What’s for Dinner?Systems Map: What’s for Dinner?

Each step is necessary but none are sufficient to put dinner on the table.

A systems map is a strategic tool to identify interests that drive choices for the future

Page 44: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Shocks to the System:

Crisis or Opportunity Peter Löscher CEO of Siemens on Using a Scandal Peter Löscher CEO of Siemens on Using a Scandal

to Drive Change: to Drive Change: … But as I always remind anybody who is listening, never miss the opportunities that come from a good crisis—and we certainly didn’t miss ours. The scandal created a sense of urgency without which change would have been much more difficult to achieve, regardless of who was CEO. Siemens is a very proud company with a history of innovation and success. In the absence of a catalyst like this, people would have asked themselves, “Why alter anything?” (Hired as the first outsider to anything?” (Hired as the first outsider to become the company’s top leader)become the company’s top leader)

David King, Science Advisor to PM Tony Blair during the 2011 FMD outbreak: At the Budget, we committed to raising science spending faster than the trend rate of growth of the economy. We can now announce that in total, the average annual growth rate for science funding is 5.8 per cent in real terms.

Page 45: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Public Opinion of Animal Agriculture Has Public Opinion of Animal Agriculture Has Supported its Role in Scientific Progress Supported its Role in Scientific Progress

Disease eradicationDisease eradication RinderpestRinderpest

VaccinesVaccines Encephalitis, clostridial diseasesEncephalitis, clostridial diseases

Environmental healthEnvironmental health Field HospitalsField Hospitals

Food SafetyFood Safety HACCPHACCP

Epidemiology Epidemiology Herd immunityHerd immunity

www.crops.org

http://digital.library.okstate.edu/encyclopedia/entries/c/ca077.html

Page 46: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

The Future of Public Opinion of Animal Agriculture The Future of Public Opinion of Animal Agriculture Should be Shaped as Supporting Scientific Progress Should be Shaped as Supporting Scientific Progress

Surveillance, early detection, rapid response and Surveillance, early detection, rapid response and recovery from high consequence disease recovery from high consequence disease outbreaksoutbreaks Tipping point for choice of interventionTipping point for choice of intervention Disease counter measures using information Disease counter measures using information

technologytechnology Manage risks from greenhouse gas emissions, Manage risks from greenhouse gas emissions,

water use, carbon sequestration, renewable and water use, carbon sequestration, renewable and bio fuelsbio fuels Transformative Sustainable Agricultural SystemsTransformative Sustainable Agricultural Systems

Human nutritionHuman nutrition

Page 47: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

Disease Outbreaks have led to a Restructuring of Rural EconomiesDisease Outbreaks have led to a Restructuring of Rural Economies

http://www.farminguk.com/bsp/10130/ews.asp?DBID=103-281-013-081&iPage=1&id=5631

Following the foot and mouth crisis of 2001 he converted some buildings on his 150-acre farm into commercial units. As part of the “Devon Renaissance” Rexon Cross Farm became Wolf Valley Business District providing an inspiring pastoral setting for business

After AI outbreaks in Asia and Italy and FMD in the UK there was significant consolidation of the livestock industry, with many small farmers dropping out

Page 48: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

FMD, Animal Agriculture and FMD, Animal Agriculture and Public OpinionPublic Opinion

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