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U.S. Climate Change Science Program / Global Change Research Program

Opportunities and Options for the Futureand Illustrations of USGS’ Role

Dr. Peter Schultz, CCSP Office

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• Societal risks & opportunities posed by climate are enormous

• Decisions must be informed by best possible science; value of informing decisions much greater than initial investments in the science

• Climate change: magnitude, timing, vulnerability, impacts, and response options still relatively uncertain, particularly at state & local scale

• Need national program to coordinate and manage science investments, disseminate their results, and facilitate their use

• CCSP/USGCRP adds significant integrative value to thirteen participating agencies to achieve results that no single agency could attain.

• Mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990

The Need for a StrongClimate Science Program

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Early years of USGCRP focused on improving understanding of processes, trends, causes, and preliminary projections

Broadening context: - Energy security - Economic security - National security - Human health - Environmental sustainability

Context

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• Administration change– EOP; departmental planning– New regulation; ESA interpretation; etc.

• Congressional action– Global Change Research Act reauthorization bill– Climate Service bill– Cap and trade bills (including adaptation provisions)

• Local to international action & demand• Public awareness• The environment itself• Carbon trading / offsets / accounting• Corporate opportunities• Evolving scientific capability

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See full color fact sheets at www.climatescience.gov

• All 21 have been released.• 4.1, 4.3, 4.4, 4.6, 4.7, 5.1, and 5.3 have significant sections on adaptation• Unified Synthesis Product: under development---includes regional and sectoral vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptation approaches

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RENO, NV (USDA)Society of Amer. Foresters

Date: Nov 2008Lead: Bill Hohenstein

HAWAII; NOAA’s PACIS CenterDate: August 2008Lead: Eileen Shea

CHICAGO, IL (DOT)PARTNER Av. Climate Res. Grp. Adv.

Bd.Date: Oct. 22-23, 2008Lead: Linda Lawson

CAROLINAS (NOAA)Lead: Margaret Davidson

BOULDER, CODate: TBD

Lead: NSF/NOAA (tentative)SAN FRANCISCO, CA

AGU MeetingDecember 2008

Lead: Kaye

SAN DIEGO, CA (HHS); APHA Annual Mtg.Date: October 29, 2008

Leads: Allen Dearry

WASHINGTON, DC (DOT)

NRC TRB MeetingDate: Jan. 11-15, 2009Lead: Linda Lawson

ALASKA (USGS/EPA)Date: Nov 2008

Lead: Armstrong/Scheraga

PHOENIX, AZAMS Meeting

Date: Jan 11-15, 2009Lead: TBD

AMES, IA (CCSPO)Corn Grower’s Assoc.

Date: Sep. 10Lead: Schultz

Conference on Ecosystem Services (ACES)Dec. 8-11, 2008

Naples, FL

SYRACUSE, NY (CCSPO)

Date: Oct. 15Lead: Emily Cloyd

BOULDER, CO (CCSPO)Western Water Managers

Date: March 2008Lead: Cloyd

WASHINGTON, DCNGO Roundtable

Date: Oct 2007Lead: CCSPO

Some of these listening sessions are convened by CCSP (de novo), but most are convened in conjunction with pre-existing meetings.

Other relevant non-CCSP sessions include: U. Mich., May ’07; CIRUN, Oct ’07; NOAA/Asheville, Nov ’07; NCSE, Jan ’08; UCAR, Oct ‘08

WASHINGTON, DC Ozone ResearchDate: July 2007

Lead: RavishankaraWASHINGTON, DC

Climate Professionals RoundtableDate: Oct 6, 2008

Lead: CCSPO

…consult with actual and potential users of the results of the Program to ensure that such results are useful in developing national and international policy responses to global change. GCRA, 1990.

Gulf CoastApril 2009Biloxi, MS

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A revolution in the approach to the science is being recommended:

NRC, 2009: Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change.

NRC, 2009: Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate.

Increasing focus on science to support mitigation and adaptation, while bolstering approaches to lynchpin basic science questions

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scientific questions are enormous, e.g.:

What has happened and what will happen?• Rate of future sea level rise (and impacts)?• Intensity of Atlantic hurricanes? • Regional climate in the next season, decade, and century?• “Tipping points” for society and ecosystems?

What do these changes mean?• Effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems / fisheries?• Overlay on existing stressors affecting national security, health, etc.?• Regional/sectoral costs of unabated climate change?

What can be done about it?• Costs & benefits of response strategies?• Consequences of carbon sequestration?• Effectiveness?• Better infuse science into decision-making? (e.g., coping with uncertainty)• Evolution of science to meet changing needs? (end-to-end engagement)

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Three quick examples of USGS’ contributions to meeting national needs.

First, water availability…

With:

• NOAA

• USDA

• USACE

• NASA

• etc.

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Second, ecological change…

(e.g., National Phenological Network, National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, Landsat, etc.)

With:

• NASA

• NSF

• DOE

• NOAA

• EPA

• USDA

• SI

• etc.

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(e.g., carbon sequestration potential---CCTP)

With:

• DOE

• EPA

• USDA

• NSF

• DOT

• etc.