Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Associate Director for Science Integration

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CCSP Update May 3, 2005 Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology. Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Associate Director for Science Integration Climate Change Science Program Office. CCSP Update. 1. Background - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • CCSP Update

    May 3, 2005

    Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and ServicesOffice of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

    Peter Schultz, Ph.D.Associate Director for Science IntegrationClimate Change Science Program Office

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • CCSP Update 1. Background2. Synthesis and Assessment Products3. Climate Science Workshop4. International Assessments5. Our Changing Planet

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • CCSP BackgroundU.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): 1990President Bush announced Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) and Climate Change Technology Initiative (CCTI) June 11, 2001President Bush announced new cabinet-level management responsibilities for climate science and technology programs February 14, 2002Climate Change Science Program (~$2B/year)Climate Change Technology Program (~$3B/year)

    CCSP encompasses CCRI and USGCRP

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • CCSP Internal StructureCCSP Interagency CommitteeDirector: Asst. Sec. of Commerce for Oceans & AtmosphereCCSP OfficeAtm. Comp.Climate Var. & ChangeWater CycleLULCCCommunicationsHD / HCRInternationalCarbon CycleEcosystemsObservationsInteragency Working Groups

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • CCSP Goals5 Climate Science Goals

    Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment

    Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes to Climate

    Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate Changes

    Understand Sensitivity & Adaptability of Natural & Manmade Ecosystems

    Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and Opportunities

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • CCSP Priority Areas FY06AerosolsCarbon Sources and SinksWater CycleClimate Feedbacks and Sensitivity to Natural and Human-Induced ForcingEcosystem Responses to Climate Change Global Climate ObservationsClimate Modeling SystemsDecision Support CapabilitiesCommunications between Scientists and Information Users

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • Synthesis & Assessment Products Current evaluations of the science foundation that can be used for informing public debate, policy, and operational decisions, and for defining and setting the future direction and priorities of the program Components of the process - Lead agency identification - Prospectus preparation - Author selection - Stakeholder interactions, public comment - Product drafting/reviewing - Approval, production, and release (Information Quality Act)

    21 Products

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • Synthesis & Assessment Products1.1 Temperature trends1.2 Past Arctic climate variability and change1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data. Implications for attribution2.1 Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations2.2 North American carbon budget & implications for global carbon cycle2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate2.4 Ozone: Emissions of ODSs, ozone layer recovery, and implications3.1 Climate models and their uses and limitations3.2 Climate projections3.3 Climate extremes3.4 Risks of abrupt climate change

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • Synthesis & Assessment Products4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise4.2 Thresholds of ecosystem change4.3 Relationship between observed ecosystem changes & climate change4.4 Adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources4.5 Implications of different atmospheric concentrations of GHGs4.6 Socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate variability4.7 Transportation and climate change and variability5.1 Uses and limitations of climate information in decision support5.2 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking5.3 Decision support using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • CCSP WorkshopLocation: Marriott Crystal Gateway, Arlington, VAPurpose: To facilitate exchange of ideas among the government, academic, international, NGO, and stakeholder groups participating in the CCSP process.Topics: Discussions will include the scientific basis and the use of the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products in addressing CCSPs three decision support goals:Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments (national and international)Develop and illustrate adaptive management and planning capabilities.Develop and evaluate methods to support climate change policy inquiriesRegistration:

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • IPCC Fourth Assessment ReportU.S. Models CCSM3, PCM, GFDL (2 versions), and GISS (3 versions). All are coupled ocean/atmosphere/land models New model development: US models include 2nd highest resolution in the international effort Ensemble simulations to characterize uncertainty All simulations available to the modeling community through PCMDI, and a subset of data for impacts researchers through IPCC TGICA

    CCSP role Funding provided to participating community Support for meetings to review model results Papers in preparation to meet AR4 publication deadline Support for WG I TSU and participation of US scientists

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • IPCC Fourth Assessment ReportTimeline

    2004May Confirmation of author teamsSep First Lead Author meeting2005Jan Zero order draft submitted to Technical Support UnitSep First order draft to external reviewers2006Apr Second order draft to external and Govt reviewersSep Final draft submitted to TSU2007Jan Approval at WG1 Plenary Session of Govt reps

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

  • Our Changing Planet FY06

    Science Advisory Board Public Session

    Thanks to BASC and CRC membersNote: CRC has already heard much of this material

    Will provide overview of some of the developments in the programNote with special pleasure addition of Peter Schultz to CCSPO staff

    Before advancing to the next slide, want to briefly mention FY06 priorities.

    Overall, FY 06 request is level (-1%)Changes across the agencies. Our Changing Planet will include cross-cut by goals as well as by traditional research elementsThis added analysis still underway for FY05, as agencies finalize operational plans.

    The key priority areas for FY06 still include the CCRI priorities, but are expanded.We are anticipating a one-year delay for the near term (within 2 years) products and we are looking to be nearly on-schedule for the long term (2 4 years) products

    5.1 and 5.3uses and limits analysisPurpose: Inform future investments to improve data products and forecast skills and to improve delivery of decision support resources that capitalize on existing skillsDescription and evaluation of the forecasts/data products and confidence in their reliability and quality Description and evaluation of uses Discussion of options for a) improving use of existing forecasts/data products and b) research priorities for improving forecasts/products that incorporate user as well as scientific perspectives Other discussions related to reanalysis, change in high latitudes, and uncertainty during the meetings of the last few days. Opportunity to provide inputFinal details being discussed. Mary Glackin has the lead on the workshop preparation.Commitment to future workshops if this one seems useful.US has continued very active participation in IPCC process

    CCSP supports participation of experts to serve as Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, and Review Editors of the reports and to participate in workshops that contribute to the process.

    Wide engagement across all three working groups.

    At present, 116 U.S. scientists serve as authors on the five reports under preparation, and 15 as Review Editors.


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