Science Advisory Board Public Session

1

Peter Schultz, Ph.D.Associate Director for Science IntegrationClimate Change Science Program Office

CCSP Update

May 3, 2005

Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and ServicesOffice of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

CCSP Update

May 3, 2005

Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and ServicesOffice of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

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CCSP Update CCSP Update

1. Background

2. Synthesis and Assessment Products

3. Climate Science Workshop

4. International Assessments

5. Our Changing Planet

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CCSP BackgroundCCSP Background

U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): 1990

President Bush announced Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) and Climate Change Technology Initiative (CCTI) – June 11, 2001

President Bush announced new cabinet-level management responsibilities for climate science and technology programs – February 14, 2002

a Climate Change Science Program (~$2B/year)a Climate Change Technology Program (~$3B/year)

CCSP encompasses CCRI and USGCRP

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CCSP Internal StructureCCSP Internal Structure

CCSP Interagency CommitteeDirector: Asst. Sec. of Commerce

for Oceans & Atmosphere

CCSP Office

Atm. Comp. Climate Var. & Change

Water CycleLULCC

Communications HD / HCR

International

Carbon Cycle

Ecosystems

Observations

Inte

rag

ency

W

ork

ing

Gro

up

s

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CCSP GoalsCCSP Goals

5 Climate Science Goals

Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment

Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes to Climate

Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate Changes

Understand Sensitivity & Adaptability of Natural & Manmade Ecosystems

Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and Opportunities

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CCSP Priority Areas FY06CCSP Priority Areas FY06

Aerosols

Carbon Sources and Sinks

Water Cycle

Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity to Natural and Human-Induced Forcing

Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change

Global Climate Observations

Climate Modeling Systems

Decision Support Capabilities

Communications between Scientists and Information Users

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Synthesis & Assessment ProductsSynthesis & Assessment Products

• Current evaluations of the science foundation that can be used for informing public debate, policy, and operational decisions, and for defining and setting the future direction and priorities of the program

• Components of the process - Lead agency identification - Prospectus preparation - Author selection - Stakeholder interactions, public comment - Product drafting/reviewing - Approval, production, and release (“Information Quality Act”)

• 21 Products

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Synthesis & Assessment ProductsSynthesis & Assessment Products

1.1 Temperature trends

1.2 Past Arctic climate variability and change

1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data. Implications for attribution

2.1 Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations

2.2 North American carbon budget & implications for global carbon cycle

2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate

2.4 Ozone: Emissions of ODSs, ozone layer recovery, and implications

3.1 Climate models and their uses and limitations

3.2 Climate projections

3.3 Climate extremes

3.4 Risks of abrupt climate change

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Synthesis & Assessment ProductsSynthesis & Assessment Products

4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise

4.2 Thresholds of ecosystem change

4.3 Relationship between observed ecosystem changes & climate change

4.4 Adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources

4.5 Implications of different atmospheric concentrations of GHGs

4.6 Socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate variability

4.7 Transportation and climate change and variability

5.1 Uses and limitations of climate information in decision support

5.2 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and

incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking

5.3 Decision support using seasonal to interannual forecasts and

observational data

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CCSP WorkshopCCSP Workshop

Location: Marriott Crystal Gateway, Arlington, VA

Purpose: To facilitate exchange of ideas among the government, academic, international, NGO, and stakeholder groups participating in the CCSP process.

Topics: Discussions will include the scientific basis and the use of the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products in addressing CCSP’s three decision support goals:

• Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments (national and international)• Develop and illustrate adaptive management and planning capabilities.• Develop and evaluate methods to support climate change policy inquiries

Registration: http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/

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U.S. Models • CCSM3, PCM, GFDL (2 versions), and GISS (3 versions). • All are coupled ocean/atmosphere/land models• New model development: US models include 2nd highest resolution in the international effort• Ensemble simulations to characterize uncertainty All simulations available to the modeling community through PCMDI, and a subset of data for impacts researchers through IPCC TGICA

CCSP role • Funding provided to participating community• Support for meetings to review model results• Papers in preparation to meet AR4 publication deadline• Support for WG I TSU and participation of US scientists

IPCC Fourth Assessment ReportIPCC Fourth Assessment Report

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IPCC Fourth Assessment ReportIPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Timeline

2004May – Confirmation of author teamsSep – First Lead Author meeting

2005Jan – Zero order draft submitted to Technical Support UnitSep – First order draft to external reviewers

2006Apr – Second order draft to external and Gov’t reviewersSep – Final draft submitted to TSU

2007Jan – Approval at WG1 Plenary Session of Gov’t reps

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Our Changing Planet FY06Our Changing Planet FY06