dr. nuki agya utama swiss german university pps … · 2015. 12. 30. · appliances ac 65% 35%...

Dr. Nuki Agya Utama

PT. BARYON hasta persada

SWISS GERMAN UNIVERSITY

PPS UNIVERSITY of INDONESIA

Presented at Workshop on Life Cycle Assessment Research in Indonesia, Puspiptek-Serpong, 24-25 November 2015. Available in http://www.ilcan.or.id Copyright @ the respective author(s).

The study

Energy Assessment on building through

the most crucial element in electricity

consumption

Life cycle energy analysis on the crucial

element

Improvement through codes and

regulation

Scenario planning after the regulation is

implemented up to 2050


Buildings and built environment


Additionally, buildings are also

responsible for:

Increasing number of buildings, which leads to the increase in energy demand

25 to 40% of total energy use worldwide.

30 to 40% of solid waste generation.

30 to 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission.

In some tropical countries, 30-75% electricity consumption is mechanical/active cooling AC (air conditioner), fan etc


Buildings in Indonesia

Total 56.6 million

45% Urban

Urban share of residential

20,376,000

509,400

3,565,800

1,018,800

single landed

high rise apt

multi-storey

multi-purposes

- 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000 8,150,400

509,400

2,674,350

1,018,800

Amount of units with

AC system


Building Life Cycle Energy

Cradle to the grave assessment on energy

utilization in the building ; including embodied

energy, transportation and construction

LCE = EEi + EErec + (OE × year)

LCE = the life-cycle energy [MJ]

EEi = the initial embodied energy of material [MJ]

EErec = the recurrent embodied energy (maintenance) [MJ]

OE = the total annual operational energy (cooling load) [MJ/year]

Year = Building life [year]


Overall Thermal Transfer Value (OTTV)

The perspective envelope components were used in Europe in the 1970’s and has been adopted as part of the ASEAN building codes since the mid 1980’s

OTTV = α [(Uw.(1- WWR)]. TDEk + (SC.WWR .SF) + (Uf . WWR .∆T)

○ α = solar radiation absorption coefficient for opaque

materials

○ Uw = opaque thermal transmittance (W/m2)

○ WWR = Windows walls ratio

○ TDEk = opaque equivalent temperature difference


Not OK

Methodology

Internal and

external load

simulation

ECOTECTTM

result

Building Materials - material production

- material properties

- etc

Data collection in

Indonesia

Household

- Electricity bill - Building form

- Building material

- Occupancy behavior

- schedule

- etc

Electricity

consumption

assessment based

on el.bill

information

Occupancy

behavior

information and

appliances

schedule

Appliances

efficiency and year

of purchase

OTTV, Energy and CO2 analysis

OTTV

analysis

Energy and CO2 analysis

OK

DE

MA

ND

SC

EN

AR

IOS


Future trend

from El.

HISTORICAL data

SUPPLY side

TECHNOLOGY

Historical data

UN, IEA, ACE

Country

Historical data -Ministry energy and

mineral

-National statistic

DEMAND side

Income Future

trend ADB, IMF, WB, UN

Future trend from El.

HISTORICAL data

GRANGER

CAUSALITY

test

I → E

I ↔ E

E → I

Regional Policy

Country Policy and Energy Roadmap

RESOURCES

RE

Fossil fuel

Alternative fuel

Future

Current

CO

ST

Ele

ctr

icity

Dem

and t

rend

Long-r

ange E

nerg

y A

ltern

atives P

lannin

g

SU

PP

LY

SC

EN

AR

IOS

DE

MA

ND

SC

EN

AR

IOS


CASE study building

1.50003.0000

hanging beam

gypsum ceiling

roof joist

gypsum joist

fascia

wooden roof frame

concrete/clay roof

rafter

0.1400

0.1300

LIVING ROOM and KITCHEN

BED ROOM

MAIN BED ROOM

BED ROOM


EM

BO

DIE

D

EN

ER

GY

Materials

U-Value CLAY based enclosure U-Value CEMENT based enclosure

[W/m2.K] quantity prod. const. [MJ/m2 floor area]

[W/m2.K] quantity prod. const. [MJ/m2 floor area] [kg] [MJ] [kg] [MJ]

Ceiling 5.16 5.16

Gypsum 605 4,021.25 man

work* 73.11 605 4,021.25 man

work* 73.11

Walls 1.58 2.95

Core walls 4,859.25 28,717.73 man

work* 522.14 9,625.50 30,469.98 man

work* 554

Mortar plaster 1,729.80 6,651.45 46.04 120.94 1,729.80 6,651.45 46.04 120.94

Mortar 951.39 3,658.30 25.32 66.51 467.046 467.05 12.43 8.49

Roof 5.17 5.23

Roof enclosure 408.48 847.43 man

work* 15.41 408.48 1,232.24 man

work* 22.4

Wooden material

Windows/doors 2.31 93.77 1,386.26 1.49 25.2 2.31 93.77 1,386.26 1.49 25.2

Roof frame 2.31 1,736.03 137.69 27.56 2.5 2.31 1,736.03 137.69 27.56 2.5

Glass 5.44 5.44

Clear glass 47.97 604.3 man

work* 10.99 47.97 604.3 man

work* 10.99

TOTAL 10,431.69 46,024.42 100.4 836.81 14,713.59 44,970.23 87.51 817.64

Materials

DOUBLE WALLS SINGLE WALLS

Conductivity quantity prod. const. [MJ/m2 floor area]

quantity prod. const. [MJ/m2 floor area] [W/m.K] [kg] [MJ] [kg] [MJ]

Ceiling (C)

Gypsum * 0.65 271 1,858 15 23 271 1,858 15 23

Walls

External walls (EW) 0.27 9,939 58,725 555 723 9,939 58,725 555 723

Internal walls (IW) (gypsum*) 0.65 1,046 7,187 59 88 - - - -

Mortar plaster 0.43 885 2,095 73 26 1,769 4,190 147 53

Mortar 0.43 1,946 4,609 161 58 1,946 4,609 161 58

Aluminium frame (AF)

Doors and windows 230 28 3,409 1.6 42 28 3,409 1.6 42

Window glass

Clear glass (CG) 5.44 62 786 3.5 9.6 62 786 3.5 9.6

TOTAL Embodied 14,177 78,669 868 970 14,015 73,577 883 909


Electricity consumption

252.81

293.28

326.93

234.37

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

BILL observation

SINGLE w alls

ECOTECT SINGLE w alls BILL observation

DOUBLE w alls

ECOTECT DOUBLE w alls

kW

h

198.94

181.73179.55

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

bill observation bricks w all ECOTECT bricks w all ECOTECT con-block w alls

kW

h

48% 52%

Single landed el. consumption

Appliances AC

65%

35%

Percentage electricity consumption (Single Walls Apt)

Cooling load Appliances

20% external load

Latent heat

Sensible heat

70% external load

Internal load

Latent heat

Sensible heat


Energy from building envelopes

79,537 76,328

9,085 1,867

194,268

383,667

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

DOUBLE Walls SINGLE Walls

MJ

Embodied energy Replacement Use phase

683,681602,178

46,12545,058

4,08043,968

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Bricks w alls Con-blocks w alls

MJ

Perimeter load Embodied energy Replacement

80-90% cooling load

70% from external load

53-63% from envelopes

69-83% cooling load

70% is from external

load

50-60% from

envelopes


Case study INDUSTRIAL


THERMAL SCENARIOS

baryon's simmulation 16

ZINC alum PVC

Wall height

Top height

12 meter

18 meter

8 meter

13 meter

Roof type

zinc aluminum

air gap

aluminum foil

pvc

air gap

pvc

Monitoring roof no

no

Cross section


ZINC alum

SCENARIO A

12 meter

18 meter

zinc aluminum

air gap

aluminum foil

no


44°C

SCENARIO C

8 meter

13 meter

pvc

air gap

pvc

no

PVC


INVENTORY


input output

RESOURCES PRODUCT

Bauxite 4.82 kg Aluminum 1 kg

Aluminum Fluoride 0.02 kg

Water 28.69 kg EMISSION to AIR

MATERIAL SO2 6.43E-02 kg

Anodes C 0.43 kg NOx 2.77E-02 kg

HCl 1.76E-05 kg

ENERGY HF 2.55E-04 kg

Natural gas 4.28E-06 kg Particulates 3.00E-02 kg

Oil 8.60E-07 kg CO 1.56E-01 kg

Electricity 5.65E+00 kWh NMVOC 6.78E-04 kg

NH3 1.47E-06 kg

EMISSION to WATER As (air) 1.17E-07 kg

P 1.14E-10 kg Cd (air) 1.30E-08 kg

N 9.63E-09 kg Cr (air) 1.18E-07 kg

AOX 4.01E-11 kg Hg (air) 6.13E-08 kg

COD 1.91E-02 kg Ni (air) 3.96E-06 kg

BOD5 7.64E-04 kg PAH (air) 9.17E-14 kg

inorg. salt 4.64E-03 kg Pb (air) 2.44E-07 kg

As (liquid) 6.53E-16 kg PCDD/F (air) 1.77E-14 kg

Cd (liquid) 1.60E-15 kg CO2 9.06E+00 kg

Cr (liquid) 1.58E-15 kg CH4 3.31E-02 kg

Hg (liquid) 7.98E-16 kg N2O 2.26E-04 kg

Pb (liquid) 1.04E-14 kg Perfluoromethane 5.00E-04 kg

Perfluoroethane 6.60E-05 kg


PVC

http://www.pvc.org/en/p/sustainability

http://www.pvcinfo.be/bestanden/Baldasan

o%20study_windows.pdf


COST SCENARIOS


asumption unit

number of coloumn pole pcs

number of beam pcs

total beam poles pcs

roof top area m2

floor area m2

price per pole (12 m) WF 550 rp

price per pole (12 m) WF 500 rp

price per pole beam (12 m) WF 450 rpdimension/type price/m2 dimension/type price/m2

coloumn pcs WF 550 20,300,000Rp WF 550 12,500,000Rp

beam pcs WF 450 10,000,000Rp WF 450 10,000,000Rp

roof top m2 zinc a lum (0.45 mm) 100,000Rp a lderon (10mm) 250,000Rp

insulation aluminium foi l 70,000Rp no -Rp

cost of coloumn

cost of beam

cost of roof

overall cost of main structure

cost of main structure per m2

20,300,000

12,500,000

10,000,000

57

19

152

21120

15360

6,267,500,000Rp

408,040Rp

1,157,100,000Rp

1,520,000,000Rp

3,590,400,000Rp

zinc alum (0.45 mm) PVC

wall height 12 meter. With thin roof top and

insulation. No opening for monitor

wall height 8 meter. With thermal roof top

and 48 meter beam

712,500,000Rp

1,520,000,000Rp

5,280,000,000Rp

7,512,500,000Rp

489,095Rp


Zinc-Aluminium PVC

Composition 55% Al , 43.5% Zinc and 1.5%

Silicon 100% PVC

Energy [Mcal/kg] 4.86 10.85

Electricity [kWh/kg] 5.65 7.19

Weight [kg/m2] 5.24 7

Cost [Rp/m2] 150,000 250,000

CO2 emission [kg/kg] 9.06 5.22

Embodied emission 14,880m2 x (5.24 x 9.06)

706,419.072

14,880m2 x (7 x 5.22)

543,715.2

Induced and Forced fan No 6 unit (@ 0.8kW)

Electricity Zero 1126 kWh/month (8hrs/d, 22 d/m)

Emission Zero 1126.4 kg CO2/month *0.726138

kgCO2/kwh

Operational emission 15 y Zero 202,752

OVERALL emission 15y [kgCO2] 706,419.072 746,467.2

*http://ecometrica.com/assets/Electricity-specific-emission-factors-for-grid-electricity.pdf


The LCEA analysis can be used as a

baseline information for demand-supply

energy analysis

Electricity scenarios



Type scenarios Income Electricity

Demand; Household scenarios

Supply; least cost scenarios

Key assumption Base year 2000, end year 2050

Population 205 million, 222 million in 2006

Base year GDP per capita 558 USD, 1900 USD in 2006

Household (52,000,000 homes) ○ size 3.98 (average between urban and rural)

Urban living base year 42%, and 49.2% in 2006 ○ 2030 68.9%, 2050 79.4%



Key assumption con’t… Electrification, 85%,

○ 100% in 2050

Electricity

○ Grid 86%

○ Off grid 14%

Loss, 11.5%

○ 9% in 2050

Reserve margin, 16.88%

○ 30% in 2050

Reference capacity, 21 GW

○ 415.6 GW in 2050

Indonesia brief. Processes: Exogenous Capacity (GW)

Scenario: Reference

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048

GW

400

380

360

340

320

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0


Household

Commercial

Industrial

Demand Results: Energy demand final units

Scenario: Reference, Fuel: Electricity

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048

Thousa

nd G

igaw

att-H

ours

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Data Variable: Activity Level

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048

%

19.0

18.0

17.0

16.0

15.0

14.0

13.0

12.0

11.0

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0


Oil Combustion Turbines

Hydro

Natural Gas

Coal Unspecified

Geothermal

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Nuclear

Transformation Results: Outputs

Scenario: Reference, Fuel: Electricity

20022005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049

Thousa

nd G

igaw

att-H

ours

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Data Variable: Activity Level

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048

%

19.0

18.0

17.0

16.0

15.0

14.0

13.0

12.0

11.0

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0


Indonesia 2050 scenarios

Demand scenarios 2050 Buildings codes in conditioned buildings

○ Application of new building codes (improvement of the SNI 03-6572-2001)

○ 2015 the implementation in place reduce electricity consumption to 10% in high rise

reduce electricity consumption to 30% in landed houses

○ Cooling appliances considering humidity reduction rather than convection (reduce electricity consumption up to 30%)

Supply scenarios 2050 Reference,

○ 2008 GOI decree, with moderate increases

Coal ○ 80-90% coal

Nuclear ○ 50-60% nuclear

Renewable Energy ○ Maximizing the RE potential

○ 20% Hydro, 32% (solar, biomass, geothermal and wind)

○ Remaining, NG 29% and Coal 18%

BEST cost ○ Lowest cost

○ Near RE potential maximum, Solar

○ NG 40%, Hydro 40%, Coal 10%

○ Nuclear to 0% (from the preference)


Household with AC

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

14020

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

20

37

20

38

20

39

20

40

20

41

20

42

20

43

20

44

20

45

20

46

20

47

20

48

20

49

20

50

millio

ns

Households

Household with AC


Cost Results: Costs

Cost: Selected Costs..., Domestic/Foreign Costs: All Domestic/Foreign Costs

Years

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048

Bill

ion U

.S. D

olla

rs

25.0

24.0

23.0

22.0

21.0

20.0

19.0

18.0

17.0

16.0

15.0

14.0

13.0

12.0

11.0

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

reference

w/ new codes

Accumulated

198 billion US$

can be saved


General conclusions

separate building codes should be introduced, skin load dominated codes such as single landed houses

and multi-storey (less than three storey) building codes and internal heat dominated such as middle and high rise building codes.

In terms of functions such as residential, commercial and offices, the condition will remain the same as the heat domination is mostly caused by its façade areas rather than the building function.

The government should apply latent heat regulation benchmarking through regulating the AC appliances as well as interior building materials


Detail conclusions

no direct evidence between the OTTV value and electricity consumption in high rise buildings, only single landed houses as these are more skin-load dominated type of building

single landed electricity consumption mainly from cooling, 70% of it is external load humidity is the biggest share both from internal and external load

the external humidity mainly influenced by ACH (Air Change per Hour)

the cooling load on high rise building influenced strongly from the envelopes performance humidity still the biggest share on the overall load (70%)

there is no building code regulation specifically focusing the reduction of humidity in the building. most of the current AC appliances in Indonesia only absorbing latent

heat

Detail recommendations

improvement on the SNI 03-6572-2001 For more detail explanations in the latent heat and

the definition on internal cooling load.

Improvement on the cooling system (mainly AC) of which considering the RH in more than 75% rather than based on ASHRAE which the condition of the climate is divided into cold and hot condition with RH in approximate 60 per cent

Additional explanations on the cooling system (AC) for adding device (such as heat pipe) in order to increase the appliances capacity to bear the high RH condition

Improving the indoor materials, which has more humidity buffer


Questions and discussion


Cost Results: Costs

Cost: All Costs, Domestic/Foreign Costs: All Domestic/Foreign Costs

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048

Bill

ion U

.S. D

olla

rs

12.5

12.0

11.5

11.0

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

reference

BEST cost

RE

source of fuel capital cost fixed O&M decom. variable O&M fuel Sources million US$/GW US$/MWh

Oil 111.69 0.026 - - 65.5 IEA Hydro 202.36 0.032 - 3.55 - IEA

Gas 65.70 0.046 - - 40.0 IEA

Coal 1,079.00 0.028 - 4.65 22.5 IEA,

GeoThermal 2,102.40 0.111 - - - NREL BioMass 2,500.00 0.054 - 3.19 12.7 IEA, Ethree

Solar 3,500.00 0.069 - - - UN, IEA Wind 707.37 0.083 - - - IEA

Nuclear 3,333.00 0.069 41 0.51 6.2 IEA, Ethree

BEST cost

w/ new

codes


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Oil Hydro Gas Coal GeoThermal BioMass Solar Wind Nuclear

REF.2050

BEST cost 2050

Least cost scenarios

Reference and BEST cost

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Ref.2025

REF.2050

RE.2025

RE.2050

Reference and RE scenario


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Ref.2025

REF.2050

Nuclear.2025

Nuclear.2050

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Ref.2025

REF.2050

Coal.2025

Coal.2050

Reference and coal scenario

Reference and Nuclear scenario

Least cost scenarios


Cost Results: Costs

Cost: All Costs, Domestic/Foreign Costs: All Domestic/Foreign Costs

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048

Bill

ion U

.S. D

olla

rs

26.0

24.0

22.0

20.0

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

nuclear

coal

reference

renewable

source of fuel capital cost fixed O&M decom. variable O&M fuel Sources million US$/GW US$/MWh

Oil 111.69 0.026 - - 65.5 IEA Hydro 202.36 0.032 - 3.55 - IEA

Gas 65.70 0.046 - - 40.0 IEA

Coal 1,079.00 0.028 - 4.65 22.5 IEA,

GeoThermal 2,102.40 0.111 - - - NREL BioMass 2,500.00 0.054 - 3.19 12.7 IEA, Ethree

Solar 3,500.00 0.069 - - - UN, IEA Wind 707.37 0.083 - - - IEA

Nuclear 3,333.00 0.069 41 0.51 6.2 IEA, Ethree


dr. nuki agya utama swiss german university pps … · 2015. 12. 30. · appliances ac 65% 35%...

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