dr. maximo torero firt outlook... · what was the proposed options in 2008-09 (1) er = emergency...
TRANSCRIPT
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Dr. Maximo ToreroDivision Director for Markets,
Trade and InstitutionsInternational Food Policy Research Institute
The Challenge of Feeding the World
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Maximo [email protected]
“The Challenge of Feeding the World”
MTT
2014 Fertilizer Outlook and Technology ConferenceNovember 18-20, 2014, Savannah, GA
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What we learned from 2007-08?
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Evolution of prices
Source: FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2011. International commodity prices database. Available at www.fao.org/es/esc/prices/PricesServlet.jsp?lang=en. Maize = US No.2, Yellow, U.S. Gulf; Wheat = US No.2, Hard Red Winter ord. prot, US f.o.b. Gulf; Rice = White Broken, Thai A1 Super, f.o.b Bangkok; Butter = Oceania, indicative export prices, f.o.b.; and Milk = Whole Milk Powder, Oceania, indicative export prices, f.o.b.
0
200
400
600
800
US$
/met
ric to
n
Maize
Wheat
Rice
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Indi
cativ
e ex
port
pric
es, f
.o.b
Butter
Milk
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What was the response
• Export bans and restrictions
• Policies to stabilize prices
• New initiatives on reserves
• Food subsidies
• Price controls on strategic staples or on trader margins
• Input subsidies
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Effects on world prices of trade policy reactions for selected countries
0% 10% 20%
Exogenous demand increase [initialperturbation]
Effects of increases in export taxesto mitigate the shock on domesticprices
Effects of decrease in import dutiesto mitigate the shock on domesticprices
Interaction effects between importand export restrictions
Policy Effects
“Natural” Shock
Source: Bouet and Laborde, 2009. MIRAGE simulations
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What was the proposed options in 2008-09
(1) ER = Emergency Reserve, Von Braun & Torero (2009 a,b)(2) ICGR= Internationally coordinated grain reserves, Linn (2008)(3) RR = Regional Reserves as the one of ASEAN
(4) CR = Country level reserves, this could imply significant relative costs at the country level, significant distortions and little effect on volatility given low effect over international markets.(5) VR= Virtual Reserves, Von Braun & Torero (2009)(6) DFIF=Diversion from industrial and animal feed uses, Wright 2009
(7) IS+IFA= Better information on Storage and International Food Agency (Wright 2009)
(8) IGCA= International Grain Clearance Arrangement, Sarris (2009)(9) FIFF= Food Import Financing Facility, Sarris (2009).(10) EWM=Early Warning mechanism(11) TF= Trade Facilitation ‐Wright (2009) and Lin (2008)
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How are we today?
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Price Levels
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Price Levels
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Periods of Excessive Volatility
Note: This figure shows the results of a model of the dynamic evolution of daily returns based on historical data going back to 1954 (known as the Nonparametric Extreme Quantile (NEXQ) Model). This model is then combined with extreme value theory to estimate higher-order quantiles of the return series, allowing for classification of any particular realized return (that is, effective return in the futures market) as extremely high or not. A period of time characterized by extreme price variation (volatility) is a period of time in which we observe a large number of extreme positive returns. An extreme positive return is defined to be a return that exceeds a certain pre-established threshold. This threshold is taken to be a high order (95%) conditional quantile, (i.e. a value of return that is exceeded with low probability: 5 %). One or two such returns do not necessarily indicate a period of excessive volatility. Periods of excessive volatility are identified based a statistical test applied to the number of times the extreme value occurs in a window of consecutive 60 days.
Source: Martins-Filho, Torero, and Yao 2010. See details at http://www.foodsecurityportal.org/soft-wheat-price-volatility-alert-mechanism.
2014
Please note Days of Excessive volatility for 2014 are through March 2014
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Production condition for products in main producing areas October 28th
Source: GEOGLAM
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In summary
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Have there been an improvement in the short
term?
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Global Stock to use ratios
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High concentration of exports
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Some improvements% of Exports from the Northern Hemisphere
Source: USDA
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Imports from the World to LAC
Source: 2012 Deason L. and D. Laborde, "Trading food: A Nutritional Assessment." IFPRI working paper, forthcoming.
x 3.5
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Exports from LAC to the World
Source: 2012 Deason L. and D. Laborde, "Trading food: A Nutritional Assessment." IFPRI working paper, forthcoming.
x 7.5
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Some ImprovementsSignificant increase on the production of wheat by
the Black Sea region
Source: USDA
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Proportion of maize production of the US in the production of biofuels, 1995–2010
Source: USADA
Maize million of metric tons
% of maize used in ethanol
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Projection of the US ethanol production
Source: EIA, AEO 2013
Bill Litros
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Increase in the number of extreme events
Source: www.emdat.be Year
Num
ber o
f ext
rem
e ev
ents
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Fuente: Agriculture for Nutrition in Latin America and the Caribbean: From Quantity to Quality, WB 2014.
Global distribution of risks associates with the main systems of agricultural production
Flood/water level riseWater scarcity
PollutionDeserfication/drought
DeforestationLoss/low soill fertility
Loss of biodiversityErosion
Land scarcityCropland
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International markets are vulnerable to climatic shocks
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Inde
x of
exp
ort v
olum
e (1
990/
91=
100)
WheatBlack Sea region Latin America
OECD exporters
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NOT ENOUGH
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How vulnerable are we in the medium and long term?
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Growing Human Pressure
Climate change
Surprise
Ecosystem decline
Source: Johan Rockstrom: Let the environment guide our development
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Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
Demand drivers– Population growth: from 7.2 to 9.6 billion people in
2050 and to 10.9 billion ins 2100 (no peak population in 9 billion and then gradual decline)
– Urbanization: 2008 = 50% urban; 2050 = 78% – Income growth: Africa rising– Oil prices– Biofuels and bioenergy– GHG mitigation and carbon
sequestration – Conservation and biodiversity
http://www.government.nl/dsc?c=getobject&s=obj&objectid=101492
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Population growthGDP per capita
(2005 US $ in ‘000s)Change in the consumption of
agricultural products 2009-2011 to 2021 (%)
The global demand for food will increase in 60% by 2050 (FAO 2012)
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Growth of Global Demand
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Development = Higher Income, Higher Demand (and for different products)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Trad
e (I
mpo
rt o
r Ex
port
Qua
ntit
y)
Dom
esti
c Co
nsum
ptio
n (F
ood+
Feed
)
Domestic Consumption, Export and Import Quantity of Cereals and Meals in kilotonnes of protein for China, 1980-2009
Food and Feed Export Quantity Import Quantity
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Additional demand for biomass
Need for alternative to fossil Carbon chains
Growing Population
Growing Income
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Growing demand
Increased production
• Increase in yield• Increase in area• Extension of cropland• Reduction of other crops
Reduced supply for
final consumers
• Hunger?• Substitution effects
Reduced supply for
intermediate consumers
• Feed• Other sectors (agrifood, cosmetics)
• Substitution effects
New Demand for
crops
Additio
nal Foo
d De
man
dAd
ditio
nal Bioenergy Dem
and
Additio
nal ind
ustrial
Biom
ass D
eman
d
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Supply drivers Water and land scarcity
Investment in agricultural research
Climate change
Science and technology policy Discovery, development, delivery
Intellectual property rights, regulatory systems, extension
http://fbae.org/2009/FBAE/website/images/btcotton_rice.jpg
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2004/20040721/har.jpg
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
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Restrictions in the access to Land
Source Ahamed et al 2006
Expansion of the land with low level of nutrient reserves
(K)
Percapita arable land (per capita hectare used)
Source: Bruinsma 2009
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Additional arable land that can be used in 2050 by region
Source: Van der Mensbrugghe, D. FAO. IADB and CIAT Seminar, March 2012
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Serious restrictions in the access to water
Under a “bussiness as usual” scenario the restriction of water by 2050 will put at risk:→ 52% of the global
population
→ 45% of the global production of grains
Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011
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Serious restrictions in the access to water
The scarcity of water will be a challenge of growing economies in LAC (Peru and Mexico) and for Africa and Asia
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The concentration of greenhouse gases is
increasing
Important consequences on climate and for
appropriate climate for crops
Climate Change
Source: Andy Jarvis, Carolina Navarrete, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata, Peter Laderach; Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, CIAT. Cali 2012
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Climate Change Effects
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Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2050
Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐11.2%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
(MIROC/A1B)
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Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐37.3%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)
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Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate Change in 2050
Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐10.5%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
(MIROC/A1B)
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Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐16.1 %
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate Change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)
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Rainfed Wheat: Impact of climate change in 2050
Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐8.1%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
(MIROC/A1B)
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Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐15.5%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Rainfed Wheat: Impact of climate change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)
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Scenarios matter for Global Trade pattern Agricultural world trade may increase or decrease due to climate change
‐6%
‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
cnr_a1 cnr_a2 cnr_b1 csi_a1 csi_a2 csi_b1 ech_a1 ech_a2 ech_b1 mir_a1 mir_a2 mir_b1
Imports, volume, 2050 compared to the baseline
Developed Countries ‐ Agro‐food Developed Countries ‐ Staple
Developing Countries ‐ Agro‐food Developing Countries ‐ Staple
Authors: D. Laborde, Csilla Lakatos, Geral Nelson, Richard Roberton and Marcell Thomas
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Heterogeneous consequences on Real IncomeClimate Change will lead to winners and losers among countries
Authors: D. Laborde, Csilla Lakatos, Geral Nelson, Richard Roberton and Marcell Thomas
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Where should we go?
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• In the short and medium term: Market‐Based Hedging Strategies for coping with excessive volatility
• In the short term – Targeted cash transfers (conditional or unconditional) for the most vulnerable groups
• In the medium and long term: Measures to increase productivity, sustainability and resilience of agriculture
What to do?
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• In countries with well‐integrated commodity exchanges: mechanisms of financial hedges and physical commodity hedges, which integrate price protection into a physical import or export agreement, may be more feasible
• In countries that don’t have this: it is important first to build the necessary institutional arrangements to advocate for financial risk management instruments
• Use of weather or catastrophe risk transfer instruments should be specially considered
Market-Based Hedging Strategies
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• Pro‐trade policies:• Improve Availability of food products (quantity). Trade
allows to rely on world supply (large and stable)• At a low price. By definition, for importing countries : world
price < domestic price, and in “real” terms: increasing income of households trade liberalization
• Of improved quality. • But trade openness generates winners and losers. It can
increase inequalities!• Role for redistributive policies and safety nets
• And some conflicting issues. FDI in land vs “land grabbing”: redefining property rights may lead to improved environmental sustainability but may lead also to social conflicts
Medium and long term policies
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Import tariffs on food products: a heavy burden for the poor
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Berm
uda
Central A
frican
Rep
.Ch
adCo
ngo
Cyprus
Equatoria
l Guine
aIceland
India
Ireland
Israel
Japan
Kenya
Malta
Morocco
Nigeria
Norway
Pakistan
Portugal
Rep. of K
orea
Romania
Saint K
itts a
nd Nevis
Serbia and
Mon
tene
gro
Seyche
lles
Solomon
Isds
Switzerland
Thailand
Tunisia
Turkmen
istan
Ukraine
United Kingdo
m
Average Tariff on Calories Average Tariff on Proteins
Source: Deason and Laborde (2010)
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• Policies to increase agricultural productivity and resilience
• Input subsidies – Transitory, smart and well targeted input subsidies
• Increase competition in the input industry
• Investment in R&D
• Investment in infrastructure – irrigation and roads
• Policies to reduce post‐harvest losses– Improved handling of harvests and storage practices
Medium and long term policies
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Average % of post harvest losses
Source: J. Parfitt, M. Barthel and S. Macnaughton, Food Waste within Food supply chains: quantification and potential for change to 2050, Biological Sciences, 2010
Importance of reducing post-harvest losses
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• Policies to increase agricultural productivity and resilience• Input subsidies – Transitory, smart and well targeted input subsidies
• Increase competition in the input industry
• Investment in R&D
• Investment in infrastructure – irrigation and roads
• Policies to reduce post‐harvest losses– Improved handling of harvests and storage practices
– Information systems
– Rural roads
Medium and long term policies
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Thanks!