WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA Elements
Brian Mills Adaptation and Impacts Research, Climate Research DivisionEnvironment CanadaFaculty of Environment, University of WaterlooWaterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1 [email protected] +1 519 888 4567 (ext. 35496)
Chair, WMO-WWRP-SERA WGhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/weather_society.html
ArcticNet (2010)
Opening thoughts
• Northern/Canadian bias (bi-polar?)
• Limited time/thought thus far
• Implementation will require a SERA sub-committee with one liaison to the Steering Group
ACIA (2008:991)
Core Membership
• social scientists • users • engagers
WWRP Expert Liaison (Verification)
WWRP Expert Liaison (THORPEX-TIGGE)
WWRP Expert Liaison (Mesoscale Weather,
THORPEX-RCs,etc.)
Research & Application Interest
Groups
Projects, Demonstrations &
Testbeds
WMO Programme Management (THORPEX-EC, WMO Forum/PWS, CCl-
OPAGs3/4…)
Other Connections (IFRC, IAEM, Earth System Science Partnership, GEO, WHO,
WTO, World Bank, NMHAs, industry organizations, IIASA, etc.)
ICSU/ISSC/ISDR Integrated Research on
Disaster Risk (IRDR)
WWRP-SERA & Polar Prediction Project
General observations
• Costs are as important as benefits
• Longitudinal analysis/perspective and comparison across social, institutional and cultural geography is critical
• Value accrues in use (decision-action-consequence web) and is highly dependent on the context, situation and capacity of the individual, group or organization
• Primary entry point should be through National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services (NMHS)
Flows of information and potential benefits
Mills (2011)
Possible benefit areas
REGIONAL EXTRA-REGIONAL
Residents and Indigenous communities
• lives (safety/health/QOL)
• livelihoods
• culture
• infrastructure
• …
Resource development and use
• energy, minerals, fisheries, water, transportation, tourism, R&D
• environment
• worker/visitor safety
• …
Safety, security, sovereignty, and
environment
Improved predictions in other regions
SERA elements
• Literature review to establish/confirm weather-related sensitivities/risks, benefit areas, and applications for decision-prediction scales (nowcasting through seasonal); social and economic research capacity evaluation (incl. gap analysis)
• Past-present-future prediction and services perspectives (researchers-forecasters-primary users…)
• define risks, opportunities, and decision problems• translation of skill improvements into products/services, costs and
benefits• enabling factors
• Traditional and local knowledge perspectives (?)
Mining completed and on-going R&D
• International Polar Year
• ArcticNet (Canada - http://www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca/)
• Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (http://www.acia.uaf.edu/)
• Polar Communications and Weather satellite mission (Canada)
• European, Asian, and Southern Hemisphere activities
Mining completed and on-going R&D
ArcticNet (2010)
Important partners/endorsements
• International Social Sciences Research Council (ISSC) (http://www.worldsocialscience.org/)
• Arctic Council (http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/)
• Antarctic (?)
• WMO (Public Weather Services), WCRP