ppp polar prediction project (ppp) and year of polar ... · wwrp ppp polar prediction project (ppp)...
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PPP
Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
Thomas Jung
Chair of the Polar Prediction ProjectAlfred Wegener Institute, Germany
1
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to: S
. Hen
dric
ks, A
WI
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PPP
Progress (very selective)
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PPP Funding
EU Horizon2020 INTAROS (Stein Sandven) APPLICATE (Thomas Jung) Blue-Action (Steffen Olsen)
MEOPAR-YOPP (Canada) Dedicated YOPP call in preparation (2.1 Mio CAD) Strong involvement of ECCC
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PPP Meetings
5–9 September 2016, Reading, UK
YOPP Planning Workshops
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PPP YOPP Planning
YOPP Core Phase YOPP Consolidationeparation Phase
2017 2018 2019 2020
Core modelling & prediction
SOP2Jul-Sep
SOP1Feb-Mar
Special observingperiods
Field campaigns
Extensive buoy coverage
Satellitesnapshots
Extra modelling
MOSAiC
Core modelling & prediction
SOP3Feb-Mar
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PPP YOPP Endorsement
Online request for YOPP endorsement launched YOPP-SERA endorsement added YOPP institutional endorsement in preparation
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PPP YOPP Endorsement
43 endorsed projects (24 October 2016)
BlueAc on
INTAROS
APPLICATE
IGP
Arcc
Antarc
c
(AC)3
Legend
observa ons
modelling
project
network / ini a ve
funded
partly funded
not yet funded
ACAS
Atmosphere (incl. Land) Ocean (incl. Sea Ice)
ASPIRE
A+5
AWARE
FAMOS ERSIP
GEO‐CRI
GRAB
UUSSPL
IAMCO
TRIMMER LOPAP
MOSAiC
RADIANCE
PIRANhA SAMEECA
SCRAP
SOCRATES
AdelieHRM AWI‐SH
WGNE MIDO
TurbFlux CIRRUS‐HL
ACE‐SPACE
ICECAPS
IABP/IPAB
ACRE
MACSSIMIZE
H2O‐DC
PARCS‐Climate
RSR‐ Mesocyclones
MARCUS
APRES3
OASIS‐YOPP
PORA‐IP
SIMU‐CIS
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PPP Draft YOPP Timeline
27 September 2016
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Contributions to the Action Areas of theWWRP Implementation Plan
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Test and demonstrate improved polar predictions as part ofYOPP
Address limitations on polar prediction through the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) core phase (mid-2017 to mid-2019) and subsequent consolidation phase
HIW-AA1: Limitations
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Explore the predictability of the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean, with a focus on sea ice, on time scales from days to a season
Develop polar-specific forecast verification methods, in particular related to sea ice, as a prerequisite to quantify analysisand forecast error/uncertainty
HIW-AA2: Uncertainty
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Develop improved (coupled) data assimilation systemsaccounting for challenges in the polar regions such as sparsenessof observational data
Assess the impact of coupled versus uncoupled assimilationon coupled predictions of the various environmental systemcomponents (atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean, wave, snow)
Develop improved representation of key polar processes in coupled models used for prediction
Carry out model experiments including operational versions ofmedium range prediction models with coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean-hydrology
Carry out coupled versus uncoupled predictions of the variousenvironmental system components (atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean, wave, snow)
HIW AA3: Fully coupled
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Promote improving sea-ice forecasting capacity and explorecorresponding user needs
Demonstrate the benefits of using predictive information for a spectrum of user types and services in polar regions
HIW AA4: Applications
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Collaborate on appropriate verification for high-impact polar weather — e.g., polar lows
Put a special emphasis on improving sea ice verification Improve general verification of polar weather and
environmental predictions as part of YOPP, to obtain betterquantitative knowledge on model performance, and on the skill, especially for user-relevant parameters
Use the YOPP Core Phase to test verification methodologies, including impact-based and user-oriented verifications
HIW AA5: Verification
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Improve understanding of linkages between polar regions andlower latitudes and assess skill of models representing theselinkages, to help elicit the influence of polar climate change andvariability on lower latitude weather
HIW AA6: Attribution
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Carry out research and development on coupled dataassimilation, including sea ice as appropriate
Develop coupled modelling systems for PPP/YOPP includingaspects such as sea ice, snow, and river run- off as integral components
Carry out research on polar clouds; in particular, mixed-phase clouds in the stable boundary layer, utilising YOPP observationsand modelling
Water AA7: Integrated Water Cycle
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Validate polar precipitation forecasts and calibrate satellite-derived estimates using in-situ data (in particular those collectedduring YOPP and MOSAiC) to the extent possible
Water AA8: New Observations
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Evaluate the importance of aerosols for polar predictions and iceprocesses
Use relevant polar supersite, field programme, and intensive observing period observations (including MOSAiC) during and after YOPP for precipitation process studies
Water AA9: Precipitation processes
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Research and develop coupled atmosphere/sea-ice/ocean dataassimilation techniques
ET AA14: Advanced methods
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Develop a YOPP data portal that links to all relevant modellingand observational data sets
Publish a special issue on YOPP in the data publishing journalEarth System Science Data
ET AA15: Support facilities
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Promote YOPP as providing a framework for testing innovative observing systems (e.g., aircraft deployable ice observing systems)
ET AA17: New observations
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Facilitate the near real-time gathering of research data for YOPP into WMO’s WIS/GTS
Assess the impact of existing and supplementary observationsduring YOPP, mainly through OSEs and OSSEs
Assess the impact of existing and supplementary observations on S2S forecasts during YOPP and YMC
ET AA17: Future gos
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Run PPP/YOPP/PCPI Polar Prediction Schools for early careerscientists
Run Polar Prediction Webinars, in collaboration with APECS
Education & Training
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Plans for 2016/17
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PPP Planned Meetings
VERSION 2.0
Event Date Amount
YOPP Data Planning (Norway) 10‐11 Nov 2016 5kCHF
US CLIVAR Workshop (USA) 1‐3 Feb 2017 5kCHF
SERA and Outreach‐ SERA (USA)‐ Planning Meeting ASSW2017 (Side meeting)‐ YOPP Launch (Switzerland)
5‐9 April 201731 Mar‐2 Apr 201710‐20 May 2017
~25kCHF15kCHF? (und.review)5kCHF5kCHF
Polar Prediction Workshop (Germany) 27‐30 Mar 2017 5kCHF
8th PPP Steering Group Meeting (USA) 27 Feb‐1 Mar 2017
30kCHF
YOPP Souther Hemisphere meeting (USA) 26 July 2017 10kCHF
YOPP Planning Week (location tbd) September 2017 30kCHF
Support participation of PPP representatives in other meetings
5kCHF
Sum: ~115kCHF
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PPP and YOPP have gained a lot of momentum and visibility Substantial progress in 2015/16 Good progress with the Action Areas as outlined in the
WWRP Implementation Plan Further planning and running of YOPP will require
considerable financial resources
Summary
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PPP End
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PPP Meetings
14 March 2016, Fairbanks, USA
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PPP Meetings
18–22 April 2016, Christchurch, NZ
2nd PPP-SERA meeting
Meeting report published in BAMS
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PPP Meetings
23–25 May 2016, Beijing, China
PPP-SG7
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PPP Publications
Special Issue on Polar PredictionQuart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.
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PPP Publications
Bull. Meteor. Meteor. Soc.
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PPP Meetings
1 August 2016, Beijing, China
Visit at the National Science Foundation of China
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PPP YOPP Planning: Task Teams
Modelling (Jung, Swinbank, Bauer, Svensson, Smith,Chevallier, Cardinali, ...)
SOPs (Ruti, Jung, Werner, Inoue, Makshtas)
Buoys and Argo (Goessling, Perovich, Renfrew, Makshtas)
Airborne platforms (Goessling, Tolstykh, Renfrew, Fairall,Wendisch, Harlow)
Satellites (Ruti, Jung, Bauer, Smith, Clemente, Drinkwater)
SERA (Werner, Hoke, PPP-SERA group, WWRP-SERA)
Verification (Goessling, Casati, ...)
Southern Hemisphere (Werner, Bromwich, Reid)
YOPP Data (Jung, Werner, Godoy)
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PPP Publications
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PPP PPP and action areas
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PPP International Coordination Office staff
Steffen Olsen
Barbara Casati Jackie Dawson
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PPP Publications
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PPP New steering group members
Daniela Liggett Steffen Olsen
Barbara Casati Jackie Dawson